Why is it our intelligence agencies cant tell us why when or who the NZX and Reserve Bank cyberattacks occurred but other 5Eyes partners can figure out theirs.
They need to join the dots between that 5Eyes support for Hong Kong protesters and against the Chinese government and the timing of the attacks on us.
On critical infrastructure failure we deserve more than a vacuum. 5 Eyes membership should give us that relevant analysis access. We have no reason to be the only silent agency in the group.
Ohh, you actually think the SIS doesn't have an idea of who is responsible?
They very probably do and any limitations are related to the traceability and security of the systems compromised, rather than the pervue of the SIS anyway.
Faith? I would suggest we can hardly trust who the security services choose to blame. That should apply even if we consider them on-side because its often in the attackers best interests to create miss direction.
You do realise all those 'Russian' attackers discussed don't actually use usernames with 'bear' in them don't you?
I don't see the benefits of the SIS being politically active.
A trump is facing a second impeachment there is talk that at least 3 members of congress where helping the rioters. One is said to have been involved in planning, another was live tweeting info on other members of congress the rioters where after and where they are being taken for their safety. Some of those that broke in went right to unmarked offices of certain members of congress they where targeting knowing exactly where to go as they had information they should not have known about the exact locations of those offices.
Also 2 members of the Capitol police force are reported to have been suspended and 10 more are under investigation for their alleged roles in the riot.
It will be interesting to see what happens to those members of congress and the police offices in the coming weeks.
No they did not borrow it, they did trial it here. They belong to the same rightwing thinktanks and tested some of the ideas here to work out some of the bugs before taking what they learned back to the thinktanks to implement slightly more polished versions in the US and UK.
The techniques dig out feelings of prejudice, fear, selfishness and hostility and spread these ideas throughout society. The idea is that both the positive image building and attack lines will be repeated and repeated until they're echoed by talkback hosts and political columnists and start to sound like truth.
This is how the manipulation works, which is almost undetectable because of its subtlety: start with innocent hobbies and activities that involve the hands and relax the brain and then the sub-liminal messages slowly, basket by basket, and carving by carving, chip away at your “Personal Responsibilit” until you’re a RWNJ. It is cunningly simple, really.
There is a link to Scott's book on top right which clicked on gives his personal preview of his book. He seems to argue that the SJW, social justice warriors, are too powerful in the fight against racism, sexism, homophobia. What is it about the Right with their attacks on people who espouse causes and advocate for the repressed minorities- SJWs and 'virtue signalling' being prime hates.
Personally, I think Mr Scott should stick to whittling.
It reminds me of the self description of the old-timey mountain man who said- "Sometimes I sets on the porch whittlin' and thinkin', and sometimes I jest sets there whittlin'……"
“New Zealanders' lacklustre Covid-19 tracer app use means contact tracers would not be able to do their job properly if an outbreak occurred today.
Ministry of Health data shows there were only 407,301 scans in the 24 hours from 1pm on Saturday, January 9 – the most recent day available.
University of Auckland research fellow with Koi Tū: The Centre for Informed Futures Dr Andrew Chen says the numbers are not sufficient enough.”
Better people were no being asked to use their Covid-19 tracer app when there is no Covid in the community – because it feels pointless to be doing that – and the number of scans underlines that. Encourage people to have down loaded the app and be ready to use them immediately if an out-break occurs.
How then would you trace the initial spread of infection that is so important in limiting an outbreak? Though I guess you may have a point about highly motivated public health experts not getting the halfarsed complacency so prevalent in Aotearoa.
But just because something feels pointless doesn't mean that there isn't a point to it.
The nice thing is, if everyone acts like we'll go into lockdown in a few weeks, there's less likelihood we'll have to go into lockdown in the next few months.
But it's a function of probability: pick a period long enough and the odds of some problem leading to another outbreak are a practical certainty. Like the rest of life, all we can do is delay the inevitable.
what interests me is whether it's reasonable to expect most people to scan every time they go into a shop/business over the whole year. Being prepared is a whole range of things, and covid fatigue and scanning fatigue need to be taken into account in that.
I can't understand why people don't. It takes less than a second in most cases. Certainly after you have the app up and running. I've looked at my diary now and then and honestly am astonished at how many places I've been and there is no way I would be able to recall them all exactly and the time of day. I realise that not all people have the technology. But if you have then for goodness sake please use it.
I don't have the app, but I know that I don't always have my phone on me, and often I am just thinking about other things. I understand intellectually the rationale for doing it, but it just seems so outside of what many people can manage. My sense at the moment is that there should be a push to get people in populated areas to be keeping records, not just the app option, as well as everyone getting ready for the next outbreak. Trying to get everyone to use the app 24/7/365 just seems futile.
You could take a paper notebook everywhere with you I guess, Weka. I did that last year before I got a new phone able to host the app. It is a bit more fiddly and time consuming that way though. Also not so good in the rain (though less expensive to drop in a puddle).
I didn't bother writing down any place I had used eftpos after a while. Which was most places with a scan code really.
I rely on eftpos/credit card transactions. When we had community transmission I kind of ran a spreadsheet of contact points, but I'm not doing that now. But it's not about me. It's about creating a system that people will actually engage with and use. We don't have that yet, I think it needs adapting.
not sure. The push seems to be about getting everyone using the app, preferably the blutooth option, but that's not working. Maybe we need to work with the reality of that rather than the ideal.
If people aren't going to use the system now, run campaigns to get people ready for the next community outbreak? Do we know how many people are thinking it will all be over soon, the vaccine etc vs those that understand the long haul?
I'm outside the mainstream enough that I don't know what the current campaigns are in detail, but mostly I see people on twitter telling off people (generally) for not using the app and I just don't see this as a winning strategy. (yes I am conflating govt campaigns with social media reckons, but I think there is a relationship).
I guess that takes us back to the issue of whether the govt can afford to be blunt about our situation (and I'm sure they have their own levels of cognitive dissonance and denial).
There appears to be a fair old barney going on in the Australian and New Zealand Society for Immunology about what vaccines to use.
The Society originally came out with a statement that AstraZeneca introduction should be paused because it does not appear to be effective enough to provide herd immunity. Then after comments by the Australian Virology Society that agreed with them there appears to have been a backdown. Pfizer and Moderna vaccines seem to be much more effective with 90+% effectiveness compared to the AstraZeneca 62%.
Does anyone know the effectiveness of the various vaccines New Zealand has ordered, apart from the 3 mentioned here?
NZ has ordered vaccines from Pfizer/BioNTech, Janssen/Johnson&Johnson, AstraZeneca/Oxford, and Novavax. We have not ordered any from Moderna AFAIK.
Novavax and Janssen haven't yet completed any Phase 3 trials, so there's no data yet for efficacy.
I note one vaccine in trials in Canada is described as a plant-based virus-like particle. I wonder if that's a play to win over the vegan anti-vax natural products crowd?
Thank you. I do remember what you said earlier but when the professional bodies start expressing doubts one does start to wonder.
I hope that this story about the senior executives of Novavax doesn't mean any more than did the sell down by the CEO of Xero did when the company simply continued on its upward path.
I wouldn't take it as a signal one way or the other.
Moderna is in the same general class of company as Novavax – a smallish development-focused outfit, rather than a big-pharma giant, and Moderna's CEO sold off a whole lot of stock in November ahead of the emergency use authorisation. So far there does seem to be any dodginess behind that.
as an aside, can you or anyone please explain what 60% or 95% effective means with covid? (and how that is assessed/measured). I'm assuming they're not deliberately infecting people with covid to see what happens.
No they're not deliberately infecting anyone with covid.
What happens with a Phase 3 trial is the volunteers get split into two groups, one group getting the trial covid vaccine, and the control group getting something else (maybe just a saline solution, maybe some other vaccine, in some cases a meningococcal vaccine IIRC, don't want to say placebo because sometimes they got something active, just not something expected to be active against covid).
The volunteers don't know which they're getting, the people administering the injections don't know which they're giving, the people monitoring the volunteers post-vaccination don't know which was given, all that info is held by a different group.
Then the volunteers go about their daily lives. Some trials regularly tested volunteers for asymptomatic infections, some trials did not. After a predetermined number of the volunteers have suffered a covid infection, then the data is pulled to see how many of the infected got the trial vaccine and how many got the something else.
If the rate of infection among the volunteers that got the vaccine was only 5% of the rate among those that got the something else, then the vaccine is 95% effective. If the rate of infection among those that got the vaccine is 40% of those in the control group, then the vaccine is 60% effective.
What was also checked but not as widely reported is how many volunteers got severe cases of covid, often defined as needing hospitalisation. IIRC, the Moderna, Pfizer, and Oxfard/AstraZeneca vaccines all were 100% effective in preventing severe infection, but there were quite a few in the control groups that got severely ill. (note that 100% is among the 10,000 or so in the trial group, as the vaccine gets given to millions, that 100% will likely become 99.something%)
This graph shows really clearly the difference in outcomes for the Pfizer vaccine:
Then the volunteers go about their daily lives. Some trials regularly tested volunteers for asymptomatic infections, some trials did not. After a predetermined number of the volunteers have suffered a covid infection, then the data is pulled to see how many of the infected got the trial vaccine and how many got the something else.
If the rate of infection among the volunteers that got the vaccine was only 5% of the rate among those that got the something else, then the vaccine is 95% effective. If the rate of infection among those that got the vaccine is 40% of those in the control group, then the vaccine is 60% effective.
I don't get why they're comparing vaccinated people who got covid with people who got a different illness.
Its a comparison of Covid-19 contraction rates between a treated population and an untreated population. You are correct that any other treatment should have very minimal impact on Covid-19 for experimental validity. In general that would be known from knowing how the vacine works. There are also potential confounding factors which is why a 'fake' treatment is applied to one group. For example if one group knows they got the vacine they might choose to take more risks in public. The experiment relies on both treated and untreated groups responding similarly to treatment and the sample having enough participants that individual responses by some individuals to treatment don't much effect the experiment.
ok, so in Andre's explanation I can just ignore all the bits about other illnesses/vaccinations, and see it as the vax group and the control being non-vax?
Yes. For the other group is untreated (for Covid-19). No doubt the researchers are also considering the effects of the vacine on different strains. But they will work more broadly than one particular RNA sequence.
The 'virus' mutates meaning its specific RNA sequence can change when it reproduces. But hopefully the vacine still works for new mutated virus strains.
This doesn't have to be true however. Flu vacines for example don't seem to handle a wide range of flu variants.
There was nothing intended to be about other illnesses in what I wrote. Sacha and Nic both picked up where I explained the control group got something else other than the vaccine that might have more side effects that a pure placebo, which is why I didn't want to use placebo for what was given to the group. But what was given to the control group was different for the different trials. Hence the reason for using the words "something else".
A common mild side effect of the vaccines is a sore shoulder and feeling out of sorts for a day or two. Many vaccines have this as a mild side effect.
A lot of people in the vaccine trial would have thought "oh, I got a sore shoulder and felt a bit sick for a couple days, I must have got the vaccine, I don't need any more precautions". To have roughly the same numbers of people in the control group and vaccine test group of the trial thinking that, the better designed studies gave the control group a different vaccine to provoke roughly the same number of side effects. So that both groups would have roughly the same post-vaccination behaviour.
Also, a lot of people have no reaction to the vaccine. Again, the trial designers would want roughly the same numbers of people in the vaccine group and the control group to have no reaction.
At the simplest level, just focus on the graph. The red line is the group that got the vaccine, the blue line is the group that didn’t get the vaccine. Starting from about day 14 when the vaccine really starts to work, up to about day 110 when enough data had been collected for analysis, about 0.12% of the people that received the vaccine got covid, while about 2.4% of the people in the control group that didn’t get the vaccine got covid.
0.12 divided by 2.4 = 0.05 (5%). That is, 5% of the people in the vaccine group were not completely protected by the vaccine, so 95% of the people in the vaccine group were completely protected by the vaccine.
For every 240 people in the control group that got covid, only 12 vaccinated people (5%) got covid, and about 228 people (95%) that probably would have got covid without the vaccine were protected by the vaccine and did not get covid.
Hence efficacy is 95%.
Cumulative incidence is just adding up all the people in that group that got sick from covid (IIRC the Pfizer trial did not check for asymptomatic infections). It's explained in the linked Technology Review article that the graph came from. Every blue square or red circle is one more volunteer in the trial getting covid.
McConnell's purge of elected Republicans following the insurrection should help form the breakaway party needed to really fissure the US hard right in time for mid-terms.
This is an interesting article on CC which is happening down the rd (80-90km & plus another hr or so in the Bismarck down the Mary River) from me. It’s quite amazing at the change that is happening since I’ve started to head down Mary River in the 10yrs that I have been in the NT and the other major River Systems on the massive Kakadu flood plain. I haven’t down the Mary in the last two very dry seasons to due my other commitments, but watching this last night. It would appear we are getting very close to that tipping point where change will happen very quickly as the flood plain isn’t that high above the high tide mark.
Where the salt is in, they might be better to sow mangroves – get the successor ecosystem running strong as fast as possible. Mangrove swamp is super productive. When the climate hands you lemons, best learn to like 'em – not much you do individually will change it back.
Down in the lower reaches of the Mary River and the other major rivers on the flood plain are seeing self seeding Mangroves as the salt water is slowly moving inland over the flood plain which is amazing to see, but also sad when you realise just fragile the our unique environment is in the Nth’ern Australia. As some species will survive and others will eventually die out as the sea levels rise, the wet season becomes less reliable and likely to be more intense. Plus coupled with longer dry seasons which would lead to more intense fire as what happened last yr when we 3 reportable crown fires within one towards the tail end of the dry seasons which is unheard of up in this neck of woods.
open tweet, click whatever to View Image (not just open image). Cut URL. In TS comment box, use Image tag. Paste URL into the field, and if necessary change 'large' to 'small. Post.
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Scottish doctor Malcolm Kendrick looks at the pandemic and the responses to it 30th December 2020 I have not written much about COVID19 recently. What can be said? In my opinion the world has simply gone bonkers. The best description can be found in Dante’s Inferno, written many hundreds of ...
I notice a few regulars no longer allow public access to the site counters. This may happen accidentally when the blog format is altered. If your blog is unexpectedly missing or the numbers seem very low please check this out. After correcting send me the URL for your ...
As we welcome in the new year, our focus is on continuing to keep New Zealanders safe and moving forward with our economic recovery. There’s a lot to get on with, but before we say a final goodbye to 2020, here’s a quick look back at some of the milestones ...
The Prime Minister of New Zealand Jacinda Ardern and the Prime Minister of the Cook Islands Mark Brown have announced passengers from the Cook Islands can resume quarantine-free travel into New Zealand from 21 January, enabling access to essential services such as health. “Following confirmation of the Cook Islands’ COVID ...
Jobs for Nature funding is being made available to conservation groups and landowners to employ staff and contractors in a move aimed at boosting local biodiversity-focused projects, Conservation Minister Kiritapu Allan has announced. It is estimated some 400-plus jobs will be created with employment opportunities in ecology, restoration, trapping, ...
The Government has approved an exception class for 1000 international tertiary students, degree level and above, who began their study in New Zealand but were caught offshore when border restrictions began. The exception will allow students to return to New Zealand in stages from April 2021. “Our top priority continues ...
Today’s deal between Meridian and Rio Tinto for the Tiwai smelter to remain open another four years provides time for a managed transition for Southland. “The deal provides welcome certainty to the Southland community by protecting jobs and incomes as the region plans for the future. The Government is committed ...
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has appointed Anna Curzon to the APEC Business Advisory Council (ABAC). The leader of each APEC economy appoints three private sector representatives to ABAC. ABAC provides advice to leaders annually on business priorities. “ABAC helps ensure that APEC’s work programme is informed by business community perspectives ...
The Government’s prudent fiscal management and strong policy programme in the face of the COVID-19 global pandemic have been acknowledged by the credit rating agency Fitch. Fitch has today affirmed New Zealand’s local currency rating at AA+ with a stable outlook and foreign currency rating at AA with a positive ...
The Government is putting in place a suite of additional actions to protect New Zealand from COVID-19, including new emerging variants, COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins said today. “Given the high rates of infection in many countries and evidence of the global spread of more transmissible variants, it’s clear that ...
$36 million of Government funding alongside councils and others for 19 projects Investment will clean up and protect waterways and create local jobs Boots on the ground expected in Q2 of 2021 Funding part of the Jobs for Nature policy package A package of 19 projects will help clean up ...
The commemoration of the 175th anniversary of the Battle of Ruapekapeka represents an opportunity for all New Zealanders to reflect on the role these conflicts have had in creating our modern nation, says Associate Minister for Arts, Culture and Heritage Kiri Allan. “The Battle at Te Ruapekapeka Pā, which took ...
Babies born with tongue-tie will be assessed and treated consistently under new guidelines released by the Ministry of Health, Associate Minister of Health Dr Ayesha Verrall announced today. Around 5% to 10% of babies are born with a tongue-tie, or ankyloglossia, in New Zealand each year. At least half can ...
The prisoner disorder event at Waikeria Prison is over, with all remaining prisoners now safely and securely detained, Corrections Minister Kelvin Davis says. The majority of those involved in the event are members of the Mongols and Comancheros. Five of the men are deportees from Australia, with three subject to ...
Travellers from the United Kingdom or the United States bound for New Zealand will be required to get a negative test result for COVID-19 before departing, and work is underway to extend the requirement to other long haul flights to New Zealand, COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins confirmed today. “The new PCR test requirement, foreshadowed last ...
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has added her warm congratulations to the New Zealanders recognised for their contributions to their communities and the country in the New Year 2021 Honours List. “The past year has been one that few of us could have imagined. In spite of all the things that ...
Attorney-General and Minister for the Environment David Parker has congratulated two retired judges who have had their contributions to the country and their communities recognised in the New Year 2021 Honours list. The Hon Tony Randerson QC has been appointed a Companion of the New Zealand Order of Merit for ...
Minister for Pacific Peoples Aupito William Sio says the New Year’s Honours List 2021 highlights again the outstanding contribution made by Pacific people across Aotearoa. “We are acknowledging the work of 13 Pacific leaders in the New Year’s Honours, representing a number of sectors including health, education, community, sports, the ...
The Government’s investment in digital literacy training for seniors has led to more than 250 people participating so far, helping them stay connected. “COVID-19 has meant older New Zealanders are showing more interest in learning how to use technology like Zoom and Skype so they can to keep in touch ...
The current number of members of parliament is starting to get too low for the job we expect them to do, argues Alex Braae. As a general rule, with the possible exception of their families, nobody likes backbench MPs. But it’s nevertheless time we accepted that parliament should have more of ...
The experience in the Brazilian city of Manaus reveals how mistaken, and dangerous, the herd-immunity-by-infection theory really is. As families around the world mourn more than two million people dead from Covid-19, the Plan B academics and their PR industry collaborator continue to argue that the New Zealand government should stop ...
As New Zealand gears up to fight climate change, experts warn that we need to actually reduce emissions, not just plant trees to offset our greenhouse gases. ...
A nationwide poll has found majority support for the government to continue to closely monitor abortions in New Zealand and the reasons for it, despite the Ministry of Health recently suggesting that there is not a use for collecting much of this information. ...
The out-of-control growth in gangs, gun crime, and violent gang activity is exposing our communities to dangerous levels of violence that will inevitably end in tragedy, says Sensible Sentencing Trust. “The recent incidents of people being shot and ...
Successive governments have paid lip service to our productivity challenge but have failed to deliver. It's time to establish a Productivity Council charged with prioritising efforts. ...
Understanding the connection between chronic fatigue syndrome and ‘long Covid’ might be helpful in treating symptoms that doctors will find all too easy to dismiss.When people began to report signs of “long Covid”, characterised by a lack of full recovery from the virus and debilitating fatigue, I recognised their stories. ...
Nadine Anne Hura, who never considered herself an artist, reflects on what art and making has taught her.I couldn’t clean or cook or wash the clothes, but I could sew. That’s a lie, I’m a terrible sewer, but I left work early to fossick around in the $1 bin of ...
Summer reissue: In the final episode of this season of Bad News, Alice is joined by Billy T award winner Kura Forrester to look at how well we’re honouring Te Tiriti o Waitangi in 2020.First published September 3, 2020.Independent journalism depends on you. Help us stay curious in 2021. The ...
Lucy Revill’s The Residents is a blog about daily life in Wellington that has morphed into a stylish, low-key coffee-table book featuring interviews and photographic portraits of 38 Wellingtonians. In this extract, Revill profiles Eboni Waitere, owner and executive director of Huia Publishers. The Residents features names like Monique Fiso ...
Pacific Media Watch correspondent The pro-independence conflict in West Papua with a missionary plane reportedly being shot down at Intan Jaya has stirred contrasting responses from the TNI/POLRI state sources, church leaders and an independence leader. A shooting caused a plane to catch fire on 6 January 2021 in the ...
“Last year ACT warned that rewarding protestors at Ihumātao with taxpayer money would promote further squatting. We just didn’t think it would happen as quickly as it is in Shelly Bay” says ACT Leader David Seymour. “The prosperity of all ...
Our kindly PM registered her return to work as leader of the nation with yet another statement on the Beehive website, the second in two days (following her appointment of Anna Curzon to the APEC Business Advisory Council on Wednesday). It’s great to know we don’t have to check with ...
A Pūhoi pub is refusing to remove a piece of memorabilia bearing the n-word from its walls. Dr Lachy Paterson looks at the history of the word here, and New Zealand’s complicity in Britain’s shameful slave trading past.Content warning: This article contains racist language and images.On a pub wall in ...
Supermarket shoppers looking for citrus are seeing a sour trend at the moment – some stores are entirely tapped out of lemons. But why? Batches of homemade lemonade will be taking a hit this summer, with life not giving New Zealand shoppers lemons. Prices are high at supermarkets and grocers that ...
You’re born either a cheery soul or a gloomy one, reckons Linda Burgess – but what happens when gene pools from opposite ends of the spectrum collide?In our shoeboxes of photos that we have to sort out before we die or get demented – because who IS that kid on ...
Summer reissue: Prisoner voting rights are something that few in government seem particularly motivated to do anything about. Could a catchy charity single help draw attention to the issue?First published September 1, 2020.Independent journalism depends on you. Help us stay curious in 2021. The Spinoff’s journalism is funded by its ...
Hundreds more Cook Islanders are expected to begin criss-crossing the Pacific, Air NZ will triple the number of flights to Rarotonga next week, and about 300 managed isolation places will be freed up for Kiwis returning from other parts of the world. When Thomas Tarurongo Wynne took a job in Wellington at ...
SPECIAL REPORT:By Ena Manuireva in Auckland It seems a long time ago – some 124 days – since Mā’ohi Nui deplored its first covid-19 related deaths of an elderly woman on 11 September 2020 followed by her husband just hours later, both over the age of 80. The local ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Turnbull, Postdoctoral research associate, UNSW A global coalition of more than 50 countries have this week pledged to protect over 30% of the planet’s lands and seas by the end of this decade. Their reasoning is clear: we need greater protection ...
The Reserve Bank Governor’s apology and claim he will ‘own the issue’ is laughable given the lack of answers and timing of its release. Jordan Williams, a spokesman for the Taxpayers’ Union said: “It’s been five days since they came clean, ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Olga Kokshagina, Researcher – Innovation & Entrepreneurship, RMIT University Are too many online meetings and notifications getting you down? Online communication tools – from email to virtual chat and video-conferencing – have transformed the way we work. In many respects they’ve made ...
The Reserve Bank acknowledges information about some of its stakeholders may have been breached in a malicious data hack. The Governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has commissioned an independent inquiry into how stakeholders' information was compromised when hackers breached a file sharing service used by the bank. “We ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Caitlin Syme, PhD in Vertebrate Palaeontology, The University of Queensland This story contains spoilers for Ammonite Palaeontologist Mary Anning is known for discovering a multitude of Jurassic fossils from Lyme Regis on England’s Dorset Coast from the age of ten in 1809. ...
A tribute to the sitcoms of old? In the Marvel Cinematic Universe? Yup. Sam Brooks reviews the audacious WandaVision.Nothing sends a chill up my spine like the phrase “Marvel Cinematic Universe”. Since launching in 2008 with Iron Man, the MCU has become a shambling behemoth, with over 23 films (not ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Clare Corbould, Associate Professor, Contemporary Histories Research Group, Deakin University The alt-right, QAnon, paramilitary and Donald Trump-supporting mob that stormed the US Capitol on January 6 claimed they were only doing what the so-called “founding fathers” of the US had done in ...
The Point of Order Ministerial Workload Watchdog and our ever-vigilant Trough Monitor were both triggered yesterday by an item of news from the office of Conservation Minister Kititapu Allan. The minister was drawing attention to new opportunities to dip into the Jobs for Nature programme (and her statement was the ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Andreas Kupz, Senior Research Fellow, James Cook University In July 1921, a French infant became the first person to receive an experimental vaccine against tuberculosis (TB), after the mother had died from the disease. The vaccine, known as Bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG), is ...
The first Friday Poem for 2021 is by Wellington poet Rebecca Hawkes.While you were partying I studied the bladeI your ever-loving edgelord God-emperorof the bot army & bitcoin mine subsistingon an IV drip of gamer girl bathwaterfinally my lonelinessis your responsibility………. you seeI need a girlfriend assigned to me by the ...
The arming of police officers in Canterbury was inevitable with the growing numbers and brazenness of the gangs across the country – this should be a permanent step, says Sensible Sentencing Trust. “It is unfortunate that we have come to the point ...
Celebrations in Aotearoa New Zealand to mark the entry into force of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) will begin on Thursday 21 January with ICAN Aotearoa New Zealand’s Wellington and online event, and continue on Friday ...
Hardly anyone is using their Covid Tracer app. Something needs to change.As the mercury approaches 30°C in Aotearoa, there is a good deal of slipping and slopping, but, let’s face it, piss-all scanning. As few as around 500,000 QR codes are being scanned by users of the NZ Covid Tracer ...
On the East Coast, a group of Māori-owned enterprises is innovating to create new revenue streams while doing what they love.New Zealand’s remote and sparsely populated regions are typically not the best places to create thriving brick-and-mortar businesses. In small communities miles away from any major centres, there are so ...
As we reach the height of summer, it’s not too late to do a safety check on your gas bottle. The Environmental Protection Authority’s Safer Homes programme has some tips and tricks to keep in mind before you fire up the grill. "If you’ve ...
The only published and available best-selling indie book chart in New Zealand is the top 10 sales list recorded every week at Unity Books’ stores in High St, Auckland, and Willis St, Wellington.AUCKLAND1Troy: The Siege of Troy Retold by Stephen Fry (Michael Joseph, $37)If you’re in any way unsure about ...
“We may as well knock on the gang headquarters around this country and tell them we all give up," says Darroch Ball co-leader of Sensible Sentencing Trust. “It is simply outrageous that violent offender, James Tuwhangai, has been released from ...
Analysis by Keith Rankin. Ireland, Israel, and Lebanon. Chart by Keith Rankin. The countries with the most recent large outbreaks of Covid19 are those with large numbers of recent recorded cases, but yet to record the deaths that most likely will result. In this camp, this time, are Ireland, Israel ...
RuPaul is in Aotearoa, kicking back in managed isolation to await the filming of an Australasian version of her hugely popular reality show Drag Race. But not everyone is happy about, explains Eli Matthewson. The world’s most famous drag queen, RuPaul, is in New Zealand, the government confirmed earlier this week ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Gregory Melleuish, Professor, School of Humanities and Social Inquiry, University of Wollongong What can we make of Clive Palmer? This week, he announced his United Australia Party (UAP) would not contest the upcoming West Australian state election on March 13. After a ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Gisela Kaplan, Emeritus Professor in Animal Behaviour, University of New England Have you ever seenmagpies play-fighting with one another, or rolling around in high spirits? Or an apostlebird running at full speed with a stick in its beak, chased by a ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jen Jackson, Program Director, Centre for Policy Development, and Associate Professor of Education, Mitchell Institute, Victoria University Childcare centres across Australia are suffering staff shortages, which have been exacerbated by the COVID crisis. Many childcare workers across Australia left when parents started ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jonathan Barrett, Senior Lecturer in Taxation, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington Rhetoric plays an important role in tax debate and therefore tax policy. If your side manages to gain traction in the public imagination with labels such as “death ...
*This article was first published on The Conversation and is republished with permission* Whoever leads the Republican Party post-Trump will need to consider how they will maintain the rabid support of his “base”, while working to regain more moderate voters who defected from the party in the 2020 election. In a historic ...
Covid-19 fears accelerated banks’ moves towards cashless transactions. But the Reserve Bank is fighting to protect cash, and those who still use it. ...
Good morning and welcome to this one-off edition of The Bulletin, covering major stories from the last few weeks.A quick preamble to this: Today’s special edition of The Bulletin is all about filling you in on some of the stories you might have missed over the summer period. Perhaps you had ...
Summer reissue: In this episode of Bad News, Alice Snedden is forced to confront her own mortality before hosting a very special dinner party to get to grips with the euthanasia debate.First published August 27, 2020.Independent journalism depends on you. Help us stay curious in 2021. The Spinoff’s journalism is ...
The contrast between the words of John F Kennedy and today’s anti-democratic demagogue is inescapable, writes Dolores Janiewski I still remember three eloquent speeches by an American president. One happened in January 1961 and spoke about a “torch being passed to a new generation”. Two years later and one day apart, ...
The debate over cutting down a large macrocarpa to make way for a new residential development has highlighted a wider agreement between developers and protesters: that we also need to be planting far more trees. At the corner of Great North Road and Ash Street in Avondale, a 150-year-old macrocarpa stands its ground ...
More infectious variants of Covid-19 are increasingly being intercepted at the country’s borders, but the minister running New Zealand’s response is resisting pressure to accelerate vaccination plans despite demands from health experts as well as political friends and foes, Justin Giovannetti reports.New Zealand’s first Covid-19 jabs will be administered in ...
As CEO of her iwi rūnanga, Debbie Ngarewa-Packer was on the frontline protecting her community during the first outbreak of Covid-19. Now that more virulent strains threaten to breach our borders, the Māori Party co-leader calls on the government to introduce much stricter measures.As we enter the New Year I ...
The Prada Cup challenger series starts today. Suzanne McFadden goes behind the scenes of the world's only live yachting regatta to see what's in store for the next five weeks. At 6am on race days, Iain Murray wakes up and immediately checks the weather outside his Auckland window. “It’s all ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Raquel Peel, Lecturer, University of Southern Queensland This story contains spoilers for Bridgerton The first season of Bridgerton, Netflix’s new hit show based on Julia Quinn’s novels, premiered on December 25 last year. The show is set in London, during the ...
The New Zealand government believes its own negotiations with Rio Tinto will be resolved "fairly quickly" now there is certainty about the future of the Tiwai Point smelter. ...
Amanda Thompson and her family are attempting to cut back on the meat, so they gave all the vego sausies the local supermarket had to offer a hoon on the barbie. Here are the results.I was a vegetarian once. Even the best of us take a well-meaning wrong turn on ...
The Taxpayers’ Union welcomes the call by Wellington City Councillor Fleur Fitzsimons for a shift to land value based rates charges. Union spokesman Louis Houlbrooke says, "Local government leaders across the country should join in Fitzsimons’s call ...
It’s been described as ‘pointless revenge’, but impeaching the president has a firm moral purpose, argues Michael Blake – setting a limit to what sorts of action a society will accept.A House majority, including 10 Republicans, voted today to impeach President Trump for “incitement of insurrection”. The vote will initiate ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Bryan Cranston, Lead Academic Teacher – Politics & Social Science (Swinburne Online), Swinburne University of Technology In a historic vote today, Donald Trump became the only US president to be impeached twice. By a margin of 232–197, the Democrat-controlled US House of ...
Hurrah. The PM is back to posting her announcements on the government’s official website, her deputy is back in the business of self-congratulation, Rio Tinto is back in the business of sucking up cheap electricity to produce aluminium at Tiwai Point, near Bluff. And overseas students (some, anyway) can come ...
The electricity sector, Government and people of Southland are rejoicing after Tiwai Point aluminium smelter owner Rio Tinto announced the major industrial would be open until the end of 2024, Marc Daalder reports Stakeholders in the electricity sector and across Southland are celebrating the extension of the Tiwai Point aluminium smelter's ...
If you’ve been on social media this week, you may well have come across a surge in interest in sea shanties. We asked a veteran of the style why. In case you missed it, soon may the Wellerman come, to bring us sugar and tea and rum. If that sentence is even ...
“It is basic human decency to speak up and protect any vulnerable child from harm, so withholding information in child abuse cases and allowing the abuse to happen by not speaking up is, put simply, a cowardly move,” says Jess McVicar Co-Leader ...
Allowing 1,000 returning international students back to New Zealand is the right move by the Government, and hopefully we will be able to welcome more, says ExportNZ Executive Director Catherine Beard. "International education has contributed ...
A majority of the House of Representatives have voted to make Donald Trump the first US president ever to be impeached twice, formally charging him in his waning days in power with inciting an insurrection just a week after a violent mob of his supporters stormed the Capitol. Follow the ...
The Youth of NZ will be standing up for climate action once again on January 26th outside of Parliament for School Strike 4 Climate NZ’s 100 Days 4 Action campaign rally. “We believe it is vital to hold our new Labour-led government to account ...
The Taxpayers’ Union is calling on Rotorua Lakes District Council to urgently release the engineering report on the public safety and structural integrity of the visible foundation-misalignment and lean of the City’s Hemo Gorge monument to government ...
Changes in income and movement in and out of poverty over time are only weakly associated with higher rates of child hospitalisation in New Zealand, according to a new University of Auckland study. Published today in PLOS ONE, the collaborative study led by Dr ...
With a long, hot summer upon us, pet owners are urged to be extra mindful of their pet’s health and safety. Unusually warm weather can quickly take its toll on furry family members, who aren’t well equipped for dealing with blazing heat. The National ...
The Council for Civil Liberties is challenging a claim by former National Party leader Simon Bridges that people should have total freedom of expression on Twitter. ...
A century of sexual abuse of women in New Zealand is analysed in a University of Auckland study. The newly-published research looks back as far as 1922 by analysing interviews with thousands of women about their lifetime experiences. The study indicates ...
Grant Robertson warns us/reminds us that we have our own homegrown Q-nuts.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/opinion/123922492/we-can-be-a-nation-of-sweet-moderation–but-only-if-we-keep-working-at-it
That photo of Robertson pretending to bat made me laugh for some reason.
Because he is aiming to 'edge' it straight back down the wicket?
A useful read for anyone doubting his deep centrism.
I'm not sure Billy Bragg would endorse his economics.
'the incrementalists flag is kinda red..
and there is some tory-blue.. too.
'do very little..and do it two years from now..!'.
is the rallying cry…
and if any change is glacial..
incrementalism is the why?..
(repeat chorus..)
And right on cue:
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/434423/man-arrested-after-attack-on-parliament
Got lost on the way to Washington DC?
Why is it our intelligence agencies cant tell us why when or who the NZX and Reserve Bank cyberattacks occurred but other 5Eyes partners can figure out theirs.
They need to join the dots between that 5Eyes support for Hong Kong protesters and against the Chinese government and the timing of the attacks on us.
Do we suffer from a shortage of uncontestable accusations, in this regard?
We certainly don't suffer from a shortage of attacks.
In leau of being told you can feel free to make your own judgements. You seem to have a strong idea about who the spooks will blame anyway.
On critical infrastructure failure we deserve more than a vacuum. 5 Eyes membership should give us that relevant analysis access. We have no reason to be the only silent agency in the group.
Ohh, you actually think the SIS doesn't have an idea of who is responsible?
They very probably do and any limitations are related to the traceability and security of the systems compromised, rather than the pervue of the SIS anyway.
Your faith is touching but on their record unwarranted.
Every other 5Eyes participant regularly roasts their attackers. If we know, so should we. If we dont, we should state our pursuit.
Faith? I would suggest we can hardly trust who the security services choose to blame. That should apply even if we consider them on-side because its often in the attackers best interests to create miss direction.
You do realise all those 'Russian' attackers discussed don't actually use usernames with 'bear' in them don't you?
I don't see the benefits of the SIS being politically active.
A trump is facing a second impeachment there is talk that at least 3 members of congress where helping the rioters. One is said to have been involved in planning, another was live tweeting info on other members of congress the rioters where after and where they are being taken for their safety. Some of those that broke in went right to unmarked offices of certain members of congress they where targeting knowing exactly where to go as they had information they should not have known about the exact locations of those offices.
Also 2 members of the Capitol police force are reported to have been suspended and 10 more are under investigation for their alleged roles in the riot.
It will be interesting to see what happens to those members of congress and the police offices in the coming weeks.
The Academy Awards should just livestream Inauguration Day as Rise Of The Tribe of Bane.
Smile for the profilers team.
Old Roman meme:
"It's always the Praetorian Guard!"
that would be from the final years of the empire..
they fair ripped thru the emporers then.
and all of them were installed and uninstalled/executed by the praetorian guard..
who essentially ran rome in those dying decades of empire..
it was a dangerous gig..for emperors..
Explaining how truthiness is a deliberate ingredient of fascism – incredibly clear 1 minute clip:
Key trialled the method here.
His operators borrowed it from the US, yes.
No they did not borrow it, they did trial it here. They belong to the same rightwing thinktanks and tested some of the ideas here to work out some of the bugs before taking what they learned back to the thinktanks to implement slightly more polished versions in the US and UK.
Rove used it with Dubya. Doubt that was the first time in human history either.
You talking about Crosby Textor?
https://i.stuff.co.nz/sunday-star-times/features/feature-archive/510105/Nats-secret-advisers-accused-of-dirty-tricks-across-Tasman
I think the technique of repeating bullshit often enough, until even those who know better start repeating it, is older than ancient Rome.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nero
Buy the book.
https://www.penguin.co.nz/books/on-tyranny-9781847924889
For balance reading
Brandon Scott
Social (In)Justice: The Left's Destruction of Personal Responsibilit
Followed your link, couldn't find anything on balances; all whittling, basketweaving, and making lots of money on twitter.
This is how the manipulation works, which is almost undetectable because of its subtlety: start with innocent hobbies and activities that involve the hands and relax the brain and then the sub-liminal messages slowly, basket by basket, and carving by carving, chip away at your “Personal Responsibilit” until you’re a RWNJ. It is cunningly simple, really.
From Scott's book preview (warning: not to be read while weaving baskets, & etc).
… chipping away!
There is a link to Scott's book on top right which clicked on gives his personal preview of his book. He seems to argue that the SJW, social justice warriors, are too powerful in the fight against racism, sexism, homophobia. What is it about the Right with their attacks on people who espouse causes and advocate for the repressed minorities- SJWs and 'virtue signalling' being prime hates.
Personally, I think Mr Scott should stick to whittling.
It reminds me of the self description of the old-timey mountain man who said- "Sometimes I sets on the porch whittlin' and thinkin', and sometimes I jest sets there whittlin'……"
"Cos I'm not sure about the thinking.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/opinion/123918113/its-not-over-trumps-psyche-cant-accept-defeat
I much prefer this man's thinking. Joe Bennett in today's Press.
Looks very interesting – thanks for the link.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/technology/covid-19-coronavirus-tracer-app-use-not-high-enough-if-there-were-to-be-an-outbreak/R5RXWTHNFB5FWYYZNYV5P3QAPU/
“New Zealanders' lacklustre Covid-19 tracer app use means contact tracers would not be able to do their job properly if an outbreak occurred today.
Ministry of Health data shows there were only 407,301 scans in the 24 hours from 1pm on Saturday, January 9 – the most recent day available.
University of Auckland research fellow with Koi Tū: The Centre for Informed Futures Dr Andrew Chen says the numbers are not sufficient enough.”
Better people were no being asked to use their Covid-19 tracer app when there is no Covid in the community – because it feels pointless to be doing that – and the number of scans underlines that. Encourage people to have down loaded the app and be ready to use them immediately if an out-break occurs.
Janet
How then would you trace the initial spread of infection that is so important in limiting an outbreak? Though I guess you may have a point about highly motivated public health experts not getting the halfarsed complacency so prevalent in Aotearoa.
But just because something feels pointless doesn't mean that there isn't a point to it.
how did they contact trace before the app?
slower.
Both my company and my key clients are expecting lockdowns this year.
Our preparedness is routinely grilled on big bids.
So we should all prepare for lockdowns this year.
That's advice I will take.
anyone who has not got a plan for another shut down is not paying attention.
The nice thing is, if everyone acts like we'll go into lockdown in a few weeks, there's less likelihood we'll have to go into lockdown in the next few months.
But it's a function of probability: pick a period long enough and the odds of some problem leading to another outbreak are a practical certainty. Like the rest of life, all we can do is delay the inevitable.
what interests me is whether it's reasonable to expect most people to scan every time they go into a shop/business over the whole year. Being prepared is a whole range of things, and covid fatigue and scanning fatigue need to be taken into account in that.
I can't understand why people don't. It takes less than a second in most cases. Certainly after you have the app up and running. I've looked at my diary now and then and honestly am astonished at how many places I've been and there is no way I would be able to recall them all exactly and the time of day. I realise that not all people have the technology. But if you have then for goodness sake please use it.
Admittedly I am not wrangling kids or anything but I also do not understand what people are complaining about. Piss easy.
It's the app users that are complaining 😉
I don't have the app, but I know that I don't always have my phone on me, and often I am just thinking about other things. I understand intellectually the rationale for doing it, but it just seems so outside of what many people can manage. My sense at the moment is that there should be a push to get people in populated areas to be keeping records, not just the app option, as well as everyone getting ready for the next outbreak. Trying to get everyone to use the app 24/7/365 just seems futile.
Kind of like brushing our teeth – no immediate payback, yet many people remember to do it.
people's fear of the murder house is much more visceral than their fear of covid.
You could take a paper notebook everywhere with you I guess, Weka. I did that last year before I got a new phone able to host the app. It is a bit more fiddly and time consuming that way though. Also not so good in the rain (though less expensive to drop in a puddle).
I didn't bother writing down any place I had used eftpos after a while. Which was most places with a scan code really.
I rely on eftpos/credit card transactions. When we had community transmission I kind of ran a spreadsheet of contact points, but I'm not doing that now. But it's not about me. It's about creating a system that people will actually engage with and use. We don't have that yet, I think it needs adapting.
Adapting how?
not sure. The push seems to be about getting everyone using the app, preferably the blutooth option, but that's not working. Maybe we need to work with the reality of that rather than the ideal.
If people aren't going to use the system now, run campaigns to get people ready for the next community outbreak? Do we know how many people are thinking it will all be over soon, the vaccine etc vs those that understand the long haul?
I'm outside the mainstream enough that I don't know what the current campaigns are in detail, but mostly I see people on twitter telling off people (generally) for not using the app and I just don't see this as a winning strategy. (yes I am conflating govt campaigns with social media reckons, but I think there is a relationship).
I guess that takes us back to the issue of whether the govt can afford to be blunt about our situation (and I'm sure they have their own levels of cognitive dissonance and denial).
In regards your last paragraph, how about practice makes perfect.
I have made a conscious effort to scan since I have upgraded my phone about 4 months ago. I notice often, someone else doing so after me.
I think it is an example of leadership to do so.
I also thrive when lockdown happens. Full pay, a couple of hobbies, empty nest, elderly Mum nearby, great support.
There appears to be a fair old barney going on in the Australian and New Zealand Society for Immunology about what vaccines to use.
The Society originally came out with a statement that AstraZeneca introduction should be paused because it does not appear to be effective enough to provide herd immunity. Then after comments by the Australian Virology Society that agreed with them there appears to have been a backdown. Pfizer and Moderna vaccines seem to be much more effective with 90+% effectiveness compared to the AstraZeneca 62%.
Does anyone know the effectiveness of the various vaccines New Zealand has ordered, apart from the 3 mentioned here?
https://www.theage.com.au/national/scientists-call-for-pause-on-astrazeneca-vaccine-rollout-20210112-p56tjt.html
NZ has ordered vaccines from Pfizer/BioNTech, Janssen/Johnson&Johnson, AstraZeneca/Oxford, and Novavax. We have not ordered any from Moderna AFAIK.
Novavax and Janssen haven't yet completed any Phase 3 trials, so there's no data yet for efficacy.
We have previously discussed the inadvisability of comparing the headline efficacy numbers for the different vaccines, because of the different levels of checking and reporting of asymptomatic infections. https://thestandard.org.nz/without-the-handbrake-what-should-this-government-do/#comment-1773071
I note one vaccine in trials in Canada is described as a plant-based virus-like particle. I wonder if that's a play to win over the vegan anti-vax natural products crowd?
British American Tobacco also moving into the Covid vaccine gamehttps://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/dec/16/british-american-tobacco-approval-test-covid-vaccine-humans
Capitalism at its best in reallocating resources 😊
Thank you. I do remember what you said earlier but when the professional bodies start expressing doubts one does start to wonder.
I hope that this story about the senior executives of Novavax doesn't mean any more than did the sell down by the CEO of Xero did when the company simply continued on its upward path.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-novavax-executives/novavax-bosses-cash-out-for-46-million-with-covid-19-vaccine-trials-still-under-way-idUSKBN29G1A2
I wouldn't take it as a signal one way or the other.
Moderna is in the same general class of company as Novavax – a smallish development-focused outfit, rather than a big-pharma giant, and Moderna's CEO sold off a whole lot of stock in November ahead of the emergency use authorisation. So far there does seem to be any dodginess behind that.
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/moderna-ceo-sold-million-stock-company-emergency-use-vaccine-filing-2020-11?r=US&IR=T
Just claim on Twitter that organic marijuana cigarettes cure Covid. Easy.
Where should they best be inserted?
wherever you prefer..
as an aside, can you or anyone please explain what 60% or 95% effective means with covid? (and how that is assessed/measured). I'm assuming they're not deliberately infecting people with covid to see what happens.
No they're not deliberately infecting anyone with covid.
What happens with a Phase 3 trial is the volunteers get split into two groups, one group getting the trial covid vaccine, and the control group getting something else (maybe just a saline solution, maybe some other vaccine, in some cases a meningococcal vaccine IIRC, don't want to say placebo because sometimes they got something active, just not something expected to be active against covid).
The volunteers don't know which they're getting, the people administering the injections don't know which they're giving, the people monitoring the volunteers post-vaccination don't know which was given, all that info is held by a different group.
Then the volunteers go about their daily lives. Some trials regularly tested volunteers for asymptomatic infections, some trials did not. After a predetermined number of the volunteers have suffered a covid infection, then the data is pulled to see how many of the infected got the trial vaccine and how many got the something else.
If the rate of infection among the volunteers that got the vaccine was only 5% of the rate among those that got the something else, then the vaccine is 95% effective. If the rate of infection among those that got the vaccine is 40% of those in the control group, then the vaccine is 60% effective.
What was also checked but not as widely reported is how many volunteers got severe cases of covid, often defined as needing hospitalisation. IIRC, the Moderna, Pfizer, and Oxfard/AstraZeneca vaccines all were 100% effective in preventing severe infection, but there were quite a few in the control groups that got severely ill. (note that 100% is among the 10,000 or so in the trial group, as the vaccine gets given to millions, that 100% will likely become 99.something%)
This graph shows really clearly the difference in outcomes for the Pfizer vaccine:
from: https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/12/10/1013914/pfizer-biontech-vaccine-chart-covid-19/
followed all of that, except for this bit,
I don't get why they're comparing vaccinated people who got covid with people who got a different illness.
"the something else" is the placebo/control, not a different illness.
yeah, that was confusing.
Its a comparison of Covid-19 contraction rates between a treated population and an untreated population. You are correct that any other treatment should have very minimal impact on Covid-19 for experimental validity. In general that would be known from knowing how the vacine works. There are also potential confounding factors which is why a 'fake' treatment is applied to one group. For example if one group knows they got the vacine they might choose to take more risks in public. The experiment relies on both treated and untreated groups responding similarly to treatment and the sample having enough participants that individual responses by some individuals to treatment don't much effect the experiment.
ok, so in Andre's explanation I can just ignore all the bits about other illnesses/vaccinations, and see it as the vax group and the control being non-vax?
Yes. For the other group is untreated (for Covid-19). No doubt the researchers are also considering the effects of the vacine on different strains. But they will work more broadly than one particular RNA sequence.
What do you mean with that?
The 'virus' mutates meaning its specific RNA sequence can change when it reproduces. But hopefully the vacine still works for new mutated virus strains.
This doesn't have to be true however. Flu vacines for example don't seem to handle a wide range of flu variants.
There was nothing intended to be about other illnesses in what I wrote. Sacha and Nic both picked up where I explained the control group got something else other than the vaccine that might have more side effects that a pure placebo, which is why I didn't want to use placebo for what was given to the group. But what was given to the control group was different for the different trials. Hence the reason for using the words "something else".
A common mild side effect of the vaccines is a sore shoulder and feeling out of sorts for a day or two. Many vaccines have this as a mild side effect.
A lot of people in the vaccine trial would have thought "oh, I got a sore shoulder and felt a bit sick for a couple days, I must have got the vaccine, I don't need any more precautions". To have roughly the same numbers of people in the control group and vaccine test group of the trial thinking that, the better designed studies gave the control group a different vaccine to provoke roughly the same number of side effects. So that both groups would have roughly the same post-vaccination behaviour.
Also, a lot of people have no reaction to the vaccine. Again, the trial designers would want roughly the same numbers of people in the vaccine group and the control group to have no reaction.
At the simplest level, just focus on the graph. The red line is the group that got the vaccine, the blue line is the group that didn’t get the vaccine. Starting from about day 14 when the vaccine really starts to work, up to about day 110 when enough data had been collected for analysis, about 0.12% of the people that received the vaccine got covid, while about 2.4% of the people in the control group that didn’t get the vaccine got covid.
I don't understand what cumulative incidence is, so the graph isn't much help I'm afraid.
Two groups (vaxed and control), once a certain number get covid, they count efficacy by what? This is the bit I don't get yet.
.12% of vax group got covid, 2.4% of control group got covid, what's the effectiveness %?
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/13/learning/what-does-95-effective-mean-teaching-the-math-of-vaccine-efficacy.html
0.12 divided by 2.4 = 0.05 (5%). That is, 5% of the people in the vaccine group were not completely protected by the vaccine, so 95% of the people in the vaccine group were completely protected by the vaccine.
For every 240 people in the control group that got covid, only 12 vaccinated people (5%) got covid, and about 228 people (95%) that probably would have got covid without the vaccine were protected by the vaccine and did not get covid.
Hence efficacy is 95%.
Cumulative incidence is just adding up all the people in that group that got sick from covid (IIRC the Pfizer trial did not check for asymptomatic infections). It's explained in the linked Technology Review article that the graph came from. Every blue square or red circle is one more volunteer in the trial getting covid.
McConnell's purge of elected Republicans following the insurrection should help form the breakaway party needed to really fissure the US hard right in time for mid-terms.
What are you talking about? McConnell doesn't really have the power to do anything much to any other Republican.
You misunderstand his position, both formally and informally.
The initial splits are occurring today and tomorrow as impeachment and other censures are debated.
This is an interesting article on CC which is happening down the rd (80-90km & plus another hr or so in the Bismarck down the Mary River) from me. It’s quite amazing at the change that is happening since I’ve started to head down Mary River in the 10yrs that I have been in the NT and the other major River Systems on the massive Kakadu flood plain. I haven’t down the Mary in the last two very dry seasons to due my other commitments, but watching this last night. It would appear we are getting very close to that tipping point where change will happen very quickly as the flood plain isn’t that high above the high tide mark.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-01-13/rising-sea-levels-visible-in-kakadu-national-park/12292646
Where the salt is in, they might be better to sow mangroves – get the successor ecosystem running strong as fast as possible. Mangrove swamp is super productive. When the climate hands you lemons, best learn to like 'em – not much you do individually will change it back.
Down in the lower reaches of the Mary River and the other major rivers on the flood plain are seeing self seeding Mangroves as the salt water is slowly moving inland over the flood plain which is amazing to see, but also sad when you realise just fragile the our unique environment is in the Nth’ern Australia. As some species will survive and others will eventually die out as the sea levels rise, the wet season becomes less reliable and likely to be more intense. Plus coupled with longer dry seasons which would lead to more intense fire as what happened last yr when we 3 reportable crown fires within one towards the tail end of the dry seasons which is unheard of up in this neck of woods.
test image png
open tweet, click whatever to View Image (not just open image). Cut URL. In TS comment box, use Image tag. Paste URL into the field, and if necessary change 'large' to 'small. Post.
Ah, thanks. Did not notice that @lprent had implemented the full WordPress editor now.
still trying to figure it out, and why some images work differently than others. I will try and write it up somewhere that stays visible.
I edited your comment in the other thread to set the image to the right size and then deleted the rest of the tests to tidy up under Micky's post.