Hang in there Simon! Just remember, Bill led the party to a vote share of 20.93% yet he went on to become Prime Munster. Helen had 6 years of lousy polling and one lost election before she succeeded. You can do it, Simon. Have faith and tough it out!
One immediate potential application that comes to mind is precision application of agrichemicals. Instead of spraying massive amounts of fertilizer or pesticide or weedkillers indiscriminately, send a bunch of robospots out to just do spot applications wherever needed.
and crowd control (there they can spray the nasty chemicals), or maybe replace wardens and turn keys in prisons, oh my gosh the applications for spotty the robot dog are endless and we don't even need to walk him or feed him.
As an introvert, I'm finding the new social acceptability of distancing to be the best thing ever. So I'm struggling to come up with any objection to what's happening in your two links.
Yeah. When they take over, I'm really going to miss the dulcet tones of small petrol engines and large diesels. All lacking effective mufflers on their exhausts.
Another aspect is that these could improve productivity in tropical agriculture which has traditionally been limited by the intensive labour needed for the crops grown in these climates.
That could conceivably change the prospects for chronically poor nations like the Phillipines.
I think it would be difficult to replace humans in agriculture, without inviting a world of trouble .
We already reap the bitter rewards of factory farming
There's a true stewardship of the soil thats not just about inputs and outputs , spraying for pests and diseases etc , as if the earth is a mechanical being
Regenerative agriculture depends on acute observation over time ,and an intuitive "learning" of each complex environment
Only humans can have the serendipitous moments necessary
I totally understand what you are saying; it makes sense and I've no argument. I wasn't imagining humans being replaced. As an automation engineer I've had the chance to see the impact up close and personal’ and everything I’ve seen is that automation works to amplify and assist human capacity. It has no independent existence.
In my view no automation or AI system will ever replace human consciousness. Superhuman AI will turn out to be one of what Vernor Vinge called 'the failed dreams'.
Where machines shine is being able to do the simple routine tasks that are able to be condensed into an algorithm. Thereby freeing up time for humans to be able to do more observing, learning, and synthesis of new and different ways of doing things.
I really don't get the whole automation ideology. Let's use that where appropriate, but there's nothing wrong with people doing things. Lots of people love growing food (and I assume love working on ships), so why not take advantage of that and design systems that are good for people and are functional.
In reality they haven't even developed controls and machinery, that can get reliably through a day, without human intervention.
I once got a major water treatment plant to run autonomously for 9 days without operator intervention … it was quite an accomplishment!
But in general you are right, and it's my view that the prime role of automation is to reliably control the routine, predictable tasks and free up the humans involved so that they can focus their much more flexible and creative energies on higher value add.
Autopilots are a good example you will familiar with, no-one hand steers any more than they have to or enjoy doing these days. And the modern versions do a better job of holding track than a human anyway. On the other hand deciding where the track should be plotted still remains a task better suited to people. Usually.
RL Now that's a point. The temp is said to be going beyond what humans can cope with working in the fields growing food, and can’t do enough with new tech or have enough covers, already is in India etc. So robots to do that would make sense. Unfortunately, the way our 'civilisation' is configured these days, the good of robotising will be compromised by the attack/defence capabilities. But what can't be cured must be endured perhaps.
What about thoughts of having city lawn clippings as base for silage for farmers? Ever pursued that idea gsays, it would have to be planned, done carefully, a range of weeds kept out and no spraying, and people take responsibility but it could mean free lawn mowing for them.
Rather than silage, I investigated and proposed composting of grass clippings, leaf mulch, tree trimmings and the kitchen scraps.
The compost would be returned to the sub standard soil that is found in most new housing developments.
Long story short (too late!), the residents had concerns about appearances, smell and rats. The management didn't see the benefits…. I have walked this earth long enough to try and convince folk against their will.
Every time I tip another catcher full of clippings into the skip bin, a little part of me dies. Then the last two frosty mornings the bin has been toasty warm with the decomposition starting up.
I read a while back that the DCC had bought a remote control lawnmower – still needed a remote control unit run by an operator, but it was intended to make mowing slopes safer. Ah, here we are.
The fun question is "if the drone controls the mowers, what controls how the drone controls the mowers?"
Not sure I like the idea of autonomous mowers – we don't need to give our robots-gone-berserk edged weapons. Very sci-fi peasant revolt, that.
Ha. Reminds me of my Dad telling us, about the self propelled mower that got away from him, and ended up drowned in the Avon. Briggs and Stratton petrol reel mower, of course.
More recently the automated straddle carrier, that made a bid for freedom in a Dutch port. Through the gate and down the street.
My own favourite machinery with a life of their own, are Lister and Gardener diesels, that have to be thoroughly suffocated to get them to stop. Unlike modern ones, where one dud chip on an electronics board can kill them
Easier to train as long as your willing to lose a bunch of fingers getting there.
The SawStop works by running a small electric current through the saw blade and detecting when its interrupted by an electrically conductive body part.
There are 10 table saw amputations a day in the US.
" After numerous tests using a hot dog as a finger-analog, in spring 2000, Gass conducted the first test with a real human finger: he applied Novocain to his left ring finger, and after two false starts, he placed his finger into the teeth of a whirring saw blade. The blade stopped as designed, and although it "hurt like the dickens and bled a lot," his finger remained intact."
sends a shudder down the spine.
I have gone to a mates workshop to find doors open, blood spattered table saw outside and no-one around.
Metalheads, my first thought too, brilliant episode, brilliant series. Check out Black Mirrors creator Charlie Brookers Anti Viral Wipe (about UKs response to pandemic) on YouTube for a good laugh and also quite insightful.
I've been a fan of Charlie Brooker's since he wrote for nerdy games mag, PC Zone during the '90s. He's viciously hilarious and his books are great. They should really make him PM.
Might not be age-appropriate for the TS audience, but after having and reading the Harry Potter series to four children – (should have bought Stephen Fry's audiobooks when they came out) your Grim reference immediately struck me as appropriate.
" The Grim is an omen of death, which is reputed to bring about the demise of the person who encounters it. The Grim takes the shape of a large, black, menaching, spectral dog. "
(BTW: Still trying to keep the offspring reading. Just bought two Terry Pratchett novels for the nineteen year old's birthday next week. It's a shared enjoyment.)
Pratchett is wonderful; he's the only other author I still keep a full collection of every published novel I could buy. (The other is of course Vernor Vinge.)
My first read was the Peace War trilogy which I'd imagine would appeal to a young adult. Then there is the Zone of Thought series starting with A Fire Upon the Deepthat I regard as absolute scifi masterpieces, but are longer reads.
Can't go wrong by reading Pratchett Red. I like the Big Bang Theory in one of his Disc world novels. Mort I think. I have it somewhere, will have to have a read of it again.
The wonderful Bob Clarkson (former MP) was just on the radio nationale. Said Todd is the equal of Simon, and would definitely be better than the "communist" currently in charge.
Thank you Bob, for capturing the mood of the nation…
Last time I looked, there was no nationalisation of businesses without compensation, collectivisation of land and agriculture or even purges of those seen as enemies of the state, unless you count Mike Hosking leaving 7 Sharp.
People need to start calling the likes of Clarkson out.
A quick Google of 'Bob Clarkson MP' found that he had been called out by quite a few people in the media.
Issues with Bob the Builder involved anti-gay and anti Muslim comments, stoushes with family over money, blaming people who lived near industrial sites for complaining about heath problems from dust.
Now we find he doesn't like our "Communist" PM even though he does call by her first name. I presume that local National people called him out because he only had one term as Tauranga MP. Later news said he was leaving to join ACT.
After all these years, a one term wonder is called back to comment on Bridges and Muller on RNZ. I listened to the interview. It's an interesting interview from the point of view of personal values and political support.
RNZ did neither Muller or Bridges a favour by allying such support to them from this man.
"Our rights are being violated. That is all actually real," Stokes said. "But this is one of the few times that's ok. Pandemics – these call for a collectivist response. They don't work without one." An American gun rights activist gets it, the people calling Labour communist don't.
I remember it was a trap lefties got into when National/Key were flying high, disparaging their supporters as stupid etc, I see it with the righties now, didn't work for us and shouldn't for them either.
Also, I watched the One News last night, first time in years, and I waited to see what the Muller guy was gonna be like, and they had no footage, just some friends saying he wss a good "bugger" & that "maoris stole his flash sandwiches at school", or something.
One last thing, to me the Labour numbers proves no one is listening to Hosking, Garner etc or reading the Herald.
Who thought it was a good idea to put him up to give public comment and use airtime? He's a has been of the worst sort and his opinion as irrelevant as most of the public. It smacks of irresponsible journalists. What is national radio's guidelines for selecting commentators?
A Danish bank has launched the world’s first negative interest rate mortgage – handing out loans to homeowners where the charge is minus 0.5% a year.
Negative interest rates effectively mean that a bank pays a borrower to take money off their hands, so they pay back less than they have been loaned.
Jyske Bank, Denmark’s third largest, has begun offering borrowers a 10-year deal at -0.5%, while another Danish bank, Nordea, says it will begin offering 20-year fixed-rate deals at 0% and a 30-year mortgage at 0.5%.
Under its negative mortgage, Jyske said borrowers will make a monthly repayment as usual – but the amount still outstanding will be reduced each month by more than the borrower has paid.
“We don’t give you money directly in your hand, but every month your debt is reduced by more than the amount you pay,” said Jyske’s housing economist, Mikkel Høegh.
In recognition of how puzzling the new mortgage is for customers, the bank’s FAQ is littered with questions and statements such as Hvordan kan det lade sig gøre? (How is that possible?) and Ja, du læste rigtigt (Yes, you read that right).
The mortgage is possible because Denmark, as well as Sweden and Switzerland, has seen rates in money markets drop to levels that turn banking upside-down.
Høegh said Jyske Bank is able to go into money markets and borrow from institutional investors at a negative rate, and is simply passing this on to its customers.
But the flipside is that savers will see nothing paid in interest on their deposits – and may also suffer as they go negative."
I'm thinking there may be benefits for this happening in New Zealand.
1. Palatable or not, those best able to weather the financial implications of Covid will most often be those who have the excess income, and ability to amass savings. They will not gain interest but they will also retain equity on their savings, unless the savings are more than a specified amount, such as in Sweden:
Those implications may mean that those with money may choose to invest in businesses or spend it which will circulate that money and improve the economy recovery.
2. For mortgage holders, this will allow a practical relief from the financial commitment of a mortgage, while still maintaining a payment relationship with their bank. It may be able – in many cases – to offset financial hardship resulting from reduced pay or unemployment.
3. A further benefit is, that if housing prices fall significantly (which would be a huge benefit to society) those who have entered the market lately, when it is most inflated, will have a reduced payment for the rest of the mortgage, offsetting a larger amount of equity loss than those who are at the end of their mortgages.
That is, if a mortgage has been taken out for $500,000 today and goes for twenty years at 4.0% paid weekly, the interest paid over that time is $226,569 accounting for just over 31% If of payments during that time. (NB: I used the stuff mortgage calculator for these calculations)
If that mortgage is transferred to what the Jyse bank offers there are two options:
a. Keep the 20 year term and reduce the weekly payment to $481
b: Retain your existing weekly payment of $699 and reduce your term to 14 years.
c: A combination of either above.
This is a reduction of around 30% of current mortgage commitments on offer. This provides a cushion for house prices to fall – 20-25% or more without causing excessive financial harm for home owners and tenants.
For me, the elegance of this proposal is that those who are at the end of their mortgages – and will not gain as much benefit as those at the beginning – will have, during their mortgage term have already accumulated untaxed, and inflated capital gains so their direct investment will still be higher than what they have contributed. In fact, any mortgage transferring over will have built into it a proportional cost/benefit that relates to the loss of equity if house prices fall vs the reduction in interest payable on that property.
I am coming from the perspective that house prices and rental costs need to fall significantly – and have needed to for a while. I also understand that many NZers have all their financial wealth and security in their homes, and need to be considered.
I would like to see our government administer or legislate for such a solution.
Ideally, it would be a government agency, such as the State Advances Corporation that provided home loans to ex-servicemen.
To facilitate rollout it may be necessary to provide in tranches depending on owner/occupier and citizenship status. I'd personally delay offering to family trusts or LLC's or overseas residents because their choice of vehicle provides them with some insulation from taxes, expense and financial shocks already.
I'd be interested to hear from others about problems they can see with this proposal, to see if there are any kinks that needed to be worked out if it was to be a practical and possible option.
(Quick correction: Just noticed the -0.5% bank rate only applies to 10 years and I used it for the whole 20 yr term, which is only offered at 0%. Will update on next comment)
Hi Molly, it's a trend to watch for sure. When I grew up & got a savings account the bank paid me 3% interest to deposit money in it. Banking then had a structural incentive to get more custom. We may be returning to it!
John Campbell interviewed a young asian guy who spoke our lingo like a kiwi a few days ago, about quantitative easing. He was representing the Reserve Bank on the TVNZ breakfast show. They've recently doubled their qe. He said the new money gets created as electronic credit (which I knew), which would have confounded many viewers but he was refreshingly forthright and sensible in not spooking them by calling those dollars imaginary. They become real when digitally invented.
So the way to keep the economy going now is to invent money. Farmers could use this thinking in times of drought, eh? Invent rain. How? Well, easiest way is to catch and store it when it falls. They could call that process water conservation. Conservatives ought to conserve, eh? You'd think. The reason farmers don't is because they believe rain always falls eventually. As Tom Petty once sang "the waiting is the hardest part"…
Catching and storing rain is fine for targeted irrigation but the dam needs to be half the size of the farm for an effective grazing regime. And it does rain most of the time.
The numbers around volume and weight for just 20mm on a thousand hectare farm are astronomical. Clever farming is a better option.
I think the most important thing to understand about all this stuff was highlighted to me simply by the US economist Randell Wray (and recently I heard this idea repeated by the US Fed chairman in a public interview where he encouraged the US treasury to spend more).
The statement (miss-quoted) is "the central bank lends and the treasury spends". Treasury spending gets spending moving including when facilitated by central QE programs to lower the government interest rates, but all the monetary policy stuff done by the central bank is about changing the interest rates and so all depends on the amount of interest in taking on loans.
Using that analogy, I would say that would require the government to direct the rain to fall more equitably, instead of providing torrential downpours on dams and giving the control to commercial banks and saying turn the taps on as you wish. (Or don't.)
A post about many of the incorrect things you will hear said about government spending and its impacts on the economy. In this case highlighting that the Bank of England is presently falsifying many of these ideas.
That's a very interesting thing to observe, seeing this in practice doesn't make much sense to me however.
Negative interest rates (which I believe Sweden's central bank is running) mean that the banks deposits with the central bank lose money. Collectively there is no way for the financial sector to rid itself of these excess deposits (other than lending them to the government) as any payments they make then go to another large financial institution. The upshot of this is that government debt often ends up lending at negative interest rates which are however lower than what the central bank is offering.
This is what is going on with the charges banks are setting for holding onto large deposits.
What makes little sense to me however is public loans at negative interest rates, and I suspect there is some missing piece such as a small number of these loans are made as an advertising ploy by the bank. The reason I understand things this way is because the interest component paid on a loan is basically the income part of the arrangement for the bank. If there is negative income to the arrangement then it makes little sense to enter into the loan agreement. Maybe Jyske bank is simply leading the pack in this case, but if all the banks are doing this then collectively it seems to make more sense to get out of the banking game.
Your concerns are already covered in the comment, Nic. This is about ensuring everyone gets through intact. No interest on deposits does not remove equity, just encourages direct investment and spending.
" Maybe Jyske bank is simply leading the pack in this case, but if all the banks are doing this then collectively it seems to make more sense to get out of the banking game. "
Banks still can charge fees, as I believe Jyske does, but not excessively. Long-time the banks will be able to survive, and their chance of survival improves if the majority of their customers are financially secure. But we have businesses – banks included – that are not used to long-term thinking.
And why can't the government play the game to benefit all NZers?
Molly, I'm not saying it would be a bad thing if this happened. I just think its unlikely to be something which can be setup as a widespread part of the financial system, as your expecting banks to engage in widespread unprofitable lending. The long term thinking on that game is to stop being in the business of banking.
I did consider that this can be a way to shrink the financial system which might be a good thing to do to some extent. I do think this aligns with something which seems to be not widely understood, but low (or even negative) interest rates are actually less favorable to banks than the high interest rates, which are supposed to be restraining their lending.
I understand. But I'm not worried about the banks incentives. So, far the banks are not offering anything that doesn't improve their income substantially in the long term – which the mortgage holidays do. What the rent holidays don't necessarily do – is improve the financial security and well being of their clients.
So, I'm trying to look at it from the perspective of the people of NZ, taking into account the inflated cost of housing that has continued not to be addressed, AND the NZ cultural attachment to housing as financial security. That is the problem I'm talking about and trying to address – not how to retain the bank as a commercial entity.
The facts became somewhat more clear when I read the guardian article in full. First its a Danish bank (which I was calling Swedish) and second the banks still make profit on the loans due to the associated fees.
I suspect that in their banking system these fees are much higher than in New Zealand which has a much higher rate difference between the central bank (and money market interest rates) and commercial bank interest rates. In New Zealand the fees component is typically very small and often waived. This structure makes the New Zealand banks profitability much more opaque.
I would suggest that to gain the social benefits the overall cost of lending is what is relevant rather than the specifics of only some of interest rates and costs involved in the lending.
"I would suggest that to gain the social benefits the overall cost of lending is what is relevant rather than the specifics of only some of interest rates and costs involved in the lending. "
I agree, and we need to start quantifying those benefits by some means in order to know where to rebuild the economy and support NZers. SROI (Social Return on Investment) has been around for a while now, but is not often referred to in policy statements or media articles while expected returns from events such as the America's Cup are calculated and accepted without much scrutiny.
I guess – without going into the role of the central bank – any single bank would make money by taking a deposit of $10k and then repaying $9500. It loans the $10k on mortgage but receives repayments of say $9700. So it would still have a $200 margin. I made the figures up for the above.
Absolutely. As I highlighted in other comments in Denmark they pay a lot more in fees (including an annual percentage of the loan, as a fee), in New Zealand all the payments are rolled into interest rates, so by focusing on just the interest rates this is a bit miss leading when compared to New Zealand.
Yes, I understand that as well. Which is why I have suggested a Government run system that reduces those costs as much as possible.
The banks have been very profitable and have no incentive to reduce their income from clients or reducing the inflated housing costs. They are financially better off when these are as high as possible.
A government agency – however – can consider SROI when calculating cost/benefit and a create a system that does not need mortgage brokers and refixing every two-three years. A young relative working for one of the big four banks in the mortgage lending department receives quarterly bonuses in the tens of thousands for the process of refixing existing loans or signing up new ones. There's a lot of extraneous extras that are lost when a constant long-term loan at a fixed rate is entered into.
"Swiss banks are to start charging their super-rich clients to look after their piles of cash.
UBS, the world’s largest wealth manager, told its ultra-wealthy clients on Tuesday that it would introduce an annual 0.6% charge on cash savings of more than €500,000 (£461,000). The fee, to be introduced in November, rises to 0.75% on savings of more than 2m Swiss francs (£1.7m).
The minimum fee is €3,000 a year. Savings of 2m francs would attract an annual charge of 15,000 francs."
In terms of addressing the mechanisms that produce inequality, this may also go some way to improve it. At a certain point when you have met all your financial requirements to live, and have saved enough to be secure, the current financial environment allows wealth to multiply and accumulate.
Note: The Jyske bank also charges fees that cover admin and employment costs, but they are not excessive.
Following the discussion with RedLogix above the following thoughts from the character of Samuel Vines seem appropriate:
“The reason that the rich were so rich, Vimes reasoned, was because they managed to spend less money.
Take boots, for example. He earned thirty-eight dollars a month plus allowances. A really good pair of leather boots cost fifty dollars. But an affordable pair of boots, which were sort of OK for a season or two and then leaked like hell when the cardboard gave out, cost about ten dollars. Those were the kind of boots Vimes always bought, and wore until the soles were so thin that he could tell where he was in Ankh-Morpork on a foggy night by the feel of the cobbles.
But the thing was that good boots lasted for years and years. A man who could afford fifty dollars had a pair of boots that'd still be keeping his feet dry in ten years' time, while the poor man who could only afford cheap boots would have spent a hundred dollars on boots in the same time and would still have wet feet."
This was the Captain Samuel Vimes 'Boots' theory of socioeconomic unfairness.” – Terry Pratchett, Men at Arms: The Play
Already thought of a possible improvement while AFK:
IF landlords on a property take this option, they have to take the same term and the reduced payment amount and pass on at least 80% of that saving to the tenants. That would reduce financial rental pressure immediately.
I would expect quite a lot of turmoil for both homeowners, landlords and tenants that are financially stressed, and this mechanism might be a way of providing security in terms of housing without a lot of changes in ownership. (As well as providing a needed downwards pressure on housing and rental prices)
“Negative rates are a very slow way of unwinding the effects of QE…. especially at -0.5%.”
And why is slow considered a negative? This does allow a downward movement in housing prices and rentals – at -0.5% a 31% neutral position compared to maintaining the same mortgage at the current 4%.
Given the love affair and financial security many NZers have with property, we need a plan to allow many to still feel and be financially secure while creating a more affordable housing environment for all.
Any other ideas on how to do that would be great… because many have been waiting quite a while to access housing that is affordable and healthy without needing to overcrowd…
Thousands of under-utilised Air BnB properties, high and increasing unemployment, increasing State housing provision will drive it…..the same forces that will drive down property prices.
Slow is considered negative because the need is now….the tenants and mortgagees cannot wait years or decades for the ratios to begin to become aligned with the real economy again.
The RBNZ backstopping the banks is (I expect) designed to support that deflation while enabling bank viability….it would not surprise to see them take on the bad loan books of the banks and administer those mortgages in the near term to remove them from the private balance sheets. Hopefully they will have a mechanism to support owner occupied to continue and foreclose investment properties.
The mechanism you state, which is left to circumstance and commercial entities, will disrupt a lot of homeowners, landlords and tenants. The disruption may also continue for some time, and will result in NZers losing out – not banks who have benefitted from increasing debt levels for many years now. It just depends on where priorities lie.
There will also be a fast response time to reduced mortgages – for financially strapped owners and tenants.
If your housing costs are reduced immediately by 20-30% to offset the financial downturn and resulting constricting household incomes, then there is less likely to be disruption by the need to move or sell – AND find somewhere else to live. (Although, I think there still will be disruption and devastation, just perhaps reduced)
I do agree that the state has to be more involved to direct the fallout, and ensure long-term benefits to NZers.
negative rates won't create that scale or speed of reduction (immediate)…and as stated the reduction is going to occur anyway, negative rates or not.
And negative rates create other problems that make the whole regime problematic.
The mechanism I outlined is hardly left to commercial entities and circumstance (market forces) for it involves market intervention by the state…..and its not as if it hasn't been done before.
Back in the 80s high interest rate environment the government offered Housing Corp mortgages at considerably below market rate to distressed mortgages for owner occupiers….the mechanism may be different this time but the result will be the same.
P.S. disruption is not going to be avoided no matter what is done.
" Back in the 80s high interest rate environment the government offered Housing Corp mortgages at considerably below market rate to distressed mortgages for owner occupiers….the mechanism may be different this time but the result will be the same. "
What was the result from your perspective? Because the government also offered low rates to returned servicemen, and increased home ownership and security was also a result.
And, without rancour.. do you have any ideas about reducing the fallout without just allowing the market to crash? Another concern I have about that passive method is that on top of financial and housing disruption, it also reduces the likelihood of investment in improving housing stock standards, and our housing stock is still often disgracefully low in this regard.
(Already conceded disruption will occur, just looking to reduce the impact, while supporting NZ people – not entities)
"What was the result from your perspective? Because the government also offered low rates to returned servicemen, and increased home ownership and security was also a result."
When the mortgage we had taken out at 8% hit 19% we applied for a housing corp refinance and from memory the rate was 11%…and the term extended to 24 years (greater than available in the market)…the result was we didn't lose our home.
"And, without rancour.. do you have any ideas about reducing the fallout without just allowing the market to crash?"
The market is going to crash whether we like it or not…the only question is by how much. I have outlined how I believe the RBNZ will reduce the fallout….remember they are required by statute to ensure the stability of the banking system but they have also stated the property ratios are unsustainable and create instability so really their options are very limited.
And if they bail out investors (in both residential and commercial) they create the same problem for themselves that the Fed did with their QE programme….they become captured by the underwrite and cannot withdraw it….which ultimately runs counter to their charter.
"another concern I have about that passive method is that on top of financial and housing disruption, it also reduces the likelihood of investment in improving housing stock standards, and our housing stock is still often disgracefully low in this regard."
Gov is partially addressing this with increased social housing build and the improving standards can be covered by increased trades training though its not a given….there is room for much more particularly in regard to CC and density as Susan Krumdieck promotes.
I'm someone who thinks the inflated housing prices do need to come down – both for purchase and for rent.
The question is: Can this be equity adjustment occur WHILE still allowing people to live in and retain their current housing? You seem prepared to let the market which has failed us in terms of providing homes, crash AND then provide them.
You also seem to suggest you would support govt loans only for homeowners, but I don't think that would deflate the housing market substantially. Significantly, tenants would be delayed in receiving any benefit.
I would have landlords who don't use alternative entity vehicles such as trusts, or LLC's to be the next in line for government mortgages after owner occupiers.
Only if there was a capacity left, would you include commercial entities that trade in housing and rentals. I would also not offer the facility to overseas investors or non NZ citizens.
The current social housing programme is going to take a while to come online, and is inadequate unless you are counting on a vast load of properties to come on the market at diminished prices. Which while beneficial in terms of stock numbers, will have an ignored human cost to it, that might be avoided if some direct action is taken.
As mentioned, IF investors were included, they would only be able to take the reduced rate option AND be required to pass on the majority of that rate to tenants. Eg. they still get the 30% reduced payments over time to offset the expected loss of capital equity, and rental costs are directly and immediately reduced for tenants.
"The question is: Can this be equity adjustment occur WHILE still allowing people to live in and retain their current housing? You seem prepared to let the market which has failed us in terms of providing homes, crash AND then provide them."
You appear to misunderstand …the equity adjustment is going to occur….and as it does we can (and I suspect will) provision home owners to remain in their homes.
"You also seem to suggest you would support govt loans only for homeowners, but I don't think that would deflate the housing market substantially. Significantly, tenants would be delayed in receiving any benefit."
Support for homeowners is correct….if you include provision for investors you are placing the floor under the market and encourage the lending…the deflation will occur because homeowners do not require a return…it is somewhere to live…whereas investors require the return to justify the investment.
Serviceability is the key
"I would have landlords who don't use alternative entity vehicles such as trusts, or LLC's to be the next in line for government mortgages after owner occupiers."
They can be next in line…but if the gov says sorry nothing for you then the deflation occurs….there is a disincentive for banks to provide finance.
"Only if there was a capacity left, would you include commercial entities that trade in housing and rentals. I would also not offer the facility to overseas investors or non NZ citizens. "
It is not a question of capacity…the Govs ability to finance is unlimited (if we ignore future impact) …it is what is the desired outcome…commercial property is also overvalued and over leveraged…..it cannot be subsidised as that creates disconnects and disconnects from the real economy are the problem.
"the current social housing programme is going to take a while to come online, and is inadequate unless you are counting on a vast load of properties to come on the market at diminished prices. Which while beneficial in terms of stock numbers, will have an ignored human cost to it, that might be avoided if some direct action is take"
Yes the social housing will take time and in one respect I think the gov foolish to build when they could buy cheaply existing properties (there was no shortage of houses, only a shortage of affordable housing) But there are positives to building social housing including training, employment and new technology (or systems)
"As mentioned, IF investors were included, they would only be able to take the reduced rate option AND be required to pass on the majority of that rate to tenants. Eg. they still get the 30% reduced payments over time to offset the expected loss of capital equity, and rental costs are directly and immediately reduced for tenants."
And why would an investor do that?…the incentives are to quit as they are now.
Social housing opposed to state housing helps to maintain inflated housing prices.
Supporting landlords while requiring them to pass on the savings to their tenants, will still allow the market to deflate while allowing the high proportion of tenanted NZers to stay in their current housing if it is still the most appropriate for them.
You seem to expect the market which has failed, to crash, and then as it recovers – somehow do what it has failed to do in the past. Our housing situation requires a stronger government intervention to solve. Social housing programmes won't be the solution.
"As mentioned, IF investors were included, they would only be able to take the reduced rate option AND be required to pass on the majority of that rate to tenants. Eg. they still get the 30% reduced payments over time to offset the expected loss of capital equity, and rental costs are directly and immediately reduced for tenants."
And why would an investor do that?…the incentives are to quit as they are now.
Well, aren't all landlords in it for the business of providing housing at a profit and not capital gains? (/sarc) In essence, their profits won't be adversely affected – their income would reduce, but so would their expenses. The return should be equitable with pre-Covid.
I'm advocating a bottom-up approach. What do the NZ people need. We need to be housed, fed and supported – then employed. The current social housing plan is not going to cut it, it was ineffective to address the real housing issues before, and it will not deliver now.
"Social housing opposed to state housing helps to maintain inflated housing prices"
.Not sure your definition of social housing is the norm…social housing INCLUDES state housing, community and emergency housing.
"Supporting landlords while requiring them to pass on the savings to their tenants, will still allow the market to deflate while allowing the high proportion of tenanted NZers to stay in their current housing if it is still the most appropriate for them"
Supporting them how?…..and tenants can remain in their current housing (if they so desire) if the landlord changes…the property remains.
"You seem to expect the market which has failed, to crash, and then as it recovers – somehow do what it has failed to do in the past. Our housing situation requires a stronger government intervention to solve. Social housing programmes won't be the solution."
You continue misunderstand what I am outlining….'the market will do what the market does , and currently it is in a deflationary environment….the state intervention (or not) is crucial to the desired outcome…as it always was, its just that in the recent past the intervention was considered undesired
"The World Bank also says this ratio is "possibly the most important summary measure of housing market performance, indicating not only the degree to which housing is affordable by the population, but also the presence of market distortions".
Based on this official work, it seems to have become accepted that a median multiple of 3.0 times or less is a very good marker for housing affordability. Much of the work in support of the 3x standard is based on US research on the US housing market"
Sweden now has the highest coronavirus death rate in the world per capita over the last week after continuing to shun lockdown.
The government has insisted that its softer approach to dealing with the pandemic will pay off in the long run as restaurants, bars and businesses remain open.
But over the last seven days, Sweden had an average of 6.08 deaths per million inhabitants – more than any other country in the world.
This is in comparison to 5.57 in the UK, 4.28 in Belgium, 4.11 in the US, 2.62 in Spain, 2.29 in Italy, and 2.26 in France.
Many of these other countries saw far more virus deaths earlier in the pandemic, but managed to bring down the numbers with strict lockdown measures.
There's some kind of mental disconnect going on between an expected 25% antibody rate, or even a 7% antibody rate, and a reported population case rate of 0.3%.
Evidently they are putting a lot of hope into the asymptomatic infection and transmission rate being orders of magnitude higher than detected case rate. But that hope isn't supported by data from places where extensive testing of contacts is carried out (such as New Zealand), which shows that true asymptomatic cases are a small fraction of the number of symptomatic cases.
Given that most reports of antibody tests highlight the fact that most tests have a very high false positive rate, the likeliest explanation is that even the 7% at the end of April is a gross overestimate of how many have actually been exposed. Which in turn suggests that the voluntary physical distancing the Swedes have done has successfully flattened the curve, but they are just somewhere near the start of a very long broad peak of the curve.
Which in turn suggests that the voluntary physical distancing the Swedes have done has successfully flattened the curve, but they are just somewhere near the start of a very long broad peak of the curve.
That was my reading of it this morning as well. Covid-19 simply isn’t as infectious as originally anticipated, or it doesn’t cause the immune system to generate antibodies unless symptoms are severe or ….
But as was obvious from the start – this isn’t a standard disease
Covid-19 simply isn’t as infectious as originally anticipated
My sense is that infection spreading is mainly due to large groups getting close together and making loud noises at each other. Choir practice, bars, weddings, noisy restaurants etc. Those appear to have been the superspreading events. Then once those events stopped, and very basic precautions against spreading started, it took a lot of close personal contact for most new infections.
It kind of makes a mockery of the idea of an R0 number when most infection spread is due to a few discrete superspreading events, each resulting in a large but random number of transmissions. Rather than the picture implied by an R0 number, which suggests each infection likely passes it on to two or three other people .(or twenty in the case of measles in an unprotected population).
I looked into typical infection models of the kind being used to discuss policy (the SIR form) and was astounded by how unrealistically simplistic they are. While its possible to understand they are modelling a process like viral spread its always going to be questionable if they are making a reasonable forecast, specifically as the outbreak occurs people will and have been naturally socially distance themselves from others (people automatically out less and take more precautions), but the assumption seems to be a static R0 throughout any forecast which doesn't respond to the outbreak.
I vaguely recall talk about a review into the Covid 19 responses by DHBs after complaints about lack of surgical equipment and PPEs in some parts of the country. I can't remember the actual specifics.
That was annoying. Software security update reboot. It found a configuration issue from the operating system update earlier in the week. Set the IP incorrectly.
One interesting aspect of the lockdown,and spending constraints is that NZ has reduced both its use of credit cards,and paid off over the last 2 months 1.5 billion of interest bearing credit card debt.
It sucks to be visa . Wonder what the impact is on the balance of payments and how much less is going to overseas as profit and fees. I'm assuming the local banks provide the capital circulated but I don't really know how it works in the background.
Another random thought – so far banks and credit card companies seem to have made up the fraud losses. that happen but with the changing banking enviroment will security become a higher profile activity?
How many times has James moved on since then? More recently (January 2020) our very own leader of the opposition Simon Bridges had reacquired James' favour.
"i (as stated prev) stopped my regular donations to national telling the office that I would not restart while Bridges was leader.
but he’s won me over and I have started donating again."
But I suspect that’s not how James rolls. Perhaps Todd Muller's looking pretty charismatic to James "at the moment". Ah James, ever the fair-weather admirer.
look at you – searching back and spending time searching for old comments. Good on you.
In reply to the first item – who is the worlds most charismatic leader – I answered. why for the moment? simply because this is not an absolute. Ardern may be polling the highest "for the moment" dosnt mean she will for all eternity (despite the wishes of some on here).
And yep – I stopped donating, and then I started once I thought he was doing a better job. Still am – every month – wont stop with the new leader.
James, look at you – donating to the National party every month. Good on you.
You're quite right re the ephemeral nature of political popularity – for a recent local example we need look no further than the ‘leadership’ of the Honourable Simon Bridges (endorsed by Sir John Key, no less.) Were I a betting man, I'd put money on PM Ardern out-lasting at least two National party leaders.
"But first, the latest update records +2.4 mln more people claiming unemployment benefits in the US, taking the total since early March to more than 38 mln. We may be getting used to such large numbers and this latest week is lower than last week, but this still represents a building social disaster, the scale of which vastly exceeds the Great Depression. In 1932, twelve million Americans were unemployed and one out of every four families no longer had an income. In 2020 the social safety net is helping with the income stress in the short term, but the level of real jobless level is also now approaching 25%. US jobless benefits typically last only 26 weeks"
I don't envy the state governors who seem to be the last stand of sensible politicians in many parts of the US. No money, no food and widespread gun ownership is a recipe for civil unrest. Those billionaire communities maybe don't look so secure anymore and the overseas boltholes are closed
Social and racial stresses arose from widely differing interpretations of the Treaty, the article said, which led to 135 years of conflict and grievance until the document was enshrined in law in 1975 and a truth and reconciliation commission formed.
"Today, the nation has shamefully unequal rates of Māori health, educational and judicial outcomes, and youth suicide statistics are tragically high."
Because of these disparities, many contemporary local commenters viewed the country's progressive label with scepticism, the article said.
Many social advances previously occurred because of the nation's values of fairness and equality, but now some of the motivation was to be seen as a world leader.
"If you look at the right of women to vote, in the 1890s, no one was saying, 'We want to be the first…'," historian Professor Paul Moon told the BBC.
"The concern was, 'This is an important right because it will enfranchise women or be more representative, more democratic and so on'. "
But then Granny reverts to form and tries to link 35 years of neoliberal crap to the current Labour led govt.
I feel like hell has frozen over. Firstly my dad has been saying nice things about Winston Peters… And I agree with them (my dad's a labour/alliance kinda guy)
Then all the older blokes I know who have benefited enormously from neoliberal policies and absolutely hated Labour and adored key and haven't voted Labour since Lange, many of them are praising the PM, talking about nationals lack of compassion and saying they may vote labour or NZ f.
Obviously not a poll or anything but … It's so weird to hear so many people who traditionally spit bike at me for being a lefty even entertain the idea of Labour. Perhaps covid 19 has changed how a lot of people value things. Time will tell.
Peter Dunne writes – The great nineteenth British Prime Minister, William Gladstone, once observed that “the first essential for a Prime Minister is to be a good butcher.” When a later British Prime Minister, Harold Macmillan, sacked a third of his Cabinet in July 1962, in what became ...
Ele Ludemann writes – New Zealanders had the OECD’s second highest tax increase last year: New Zealanders faced the second-biggest tax raises in the developed world last year, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) says. The intergovernmental agency said the average change in personal income tax ...
We all know something’s not right with our elections. The spread of misinformation, people being targeted with soundbites and emotional triggers that ignore the facts, even the truth, and influence their votes.The use of technology to produce deep fakes. How can you tell if something is real or not? Can ...
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It is all very well cutting the backrooms of public agencies but it may compromise the frontlines. One of the frustrations of the Productivity Commission’s 2017 review of universities is that while it observed that their non-academic staff were increasing faster than their academic staff, it did not bother to ...
Buzz from the Beehive Two speeches delivered by Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters at Anzac Day ceremonies in Turkey are the only new posts on the government’s official website since the PM announced his Cabinet shake-up. In one of the speeches, Peters stated the obvious: we live in a troubled ...
1. Which of these would you not expect to read in The Waikato Invader?a. Luxon is here to do business, don’t you worry about thatb. Mr KPI expects results, and you better believe itc. This decisive man of action is getting me all hot and excitedd. Melissa Lee is how ...
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Lindsay Mitchell writes – One of reasons Oranga Tamariki exists is to prevent child neglect. But could the organisation itself be guilty of the same?Oranga Tamariki’s statistics show a decrease in the number and age of children in care. “There are less children ...
David Farrar writes: Graeme Edgeler wrote in 2017: In the first five years after three strikes came into effect 5248 offenders received a ‘first strike’ (that is, a “stage-1 conviction” under the three strikes sentencing regime), and 68 offenders received a ‘second strike’. In the five years prior to ...
Bryce Edwards writes – Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has surprised everyone with his ruthlessness in sacking two of his ministers from their crucial portfolios. Removing ministers for poor performance after only five months in the job just doesn’t normally happen in politics. That’s refreshing and will be extremely ...
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Hi,Today I mainly want to share some of your thoughts about the recent piece I wrote about success and failure, and the forces that seemingly guide our lives. But first, a quick bit of housekeeping: I am doing a Webworm popup in Los Angeles on Saturday May 11 at 2pm. ...
It is hard to see what Melissa Lee might have done to “save” the media. National went into the election with no public media policy and appears not to have developed one subsequently. Lee claimed that she had prepared a policy paper before the election but it had been decided ...
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Buzz from the Beehive A statement from Children’s Minister Karen Chhour – yet to be posted on the Government’s official website – arrived in Point of Order’s email in-tray last night. It welcomes the High Court ruling on whether the Waitangi Tribunal can demand she appear before it. It does ...
Mr Bombastic:Ironically, the media the academic experts wanted is, in many ways, the media they got. In place of the tyrannical editors of yesteryear, advancing without fear or favour the interests of the ruling class; the New Zealand news media of today boasts a troop of enlightened journalists dedicated to ...
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Mike Grimshaw writes – The recent announcement of the University Advisory Group, chaired by Sir Peter Gluckman, makes very clear where the Government’s focus and priorities lie. The remit of the Advisory Group is that Group members will consider challenges and opportunities for improvement in the university sector including: ...
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Rob MacCullough writes – Pundits from the left and the right are arguing that National’s Fast Track Bill that is designed to speed up infrastructure decisions could end up becoming mired in a cesspool of corruption. Political commentator ...
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Swabbing mixed breed baby chicks to test for avian influenzaUh oh. Bird flu – often deadly to humans – is not only being transmitted from infected birds to dairy cows, but is now travelling between dairy cows. As of last Friday, Bloomberg News reports, there were 32 American dairy herds ...
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Buzz from the Beehive Reactions to news of the government’s readiness to make urgent changes to “the resource management system” through a Bill to amend the Resource Management Act (RMA) suggest a balanced approach is being taken. The Taxpayers’ Union says the proposed changes don’t go far enough. Greenpeace says ...
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A laundry list of additional costs for Tāmaki Makarau Auckland shows the Minister for the city is not delivering for the people who live there, says Labour Auckland Issues spokesperson Shanan Halbert. ...
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The Green Party has today launched a step-by-step guide to help New Zealanders make their voice heard on the Government’s democracy dodging and anti-environment fast track legislation. ...
The National Government’s proposed changes to the Residential Tenancies Act will mean tenants can be turfed from their homes by landlords with little notice, Labour housing spokesperson Kieran McAnulty said. ...
Green Party co-leader Marama Davidson is calling on all parties to support a common-sense change that’s great for the planet and great for consumers after her member’s bill was drawn from the ballot today. ...
A significant milestone has been reached in the fight to strike an anti-Pasifika and unfair law from the country’s books after Teanau Tuiono’s members’ bill passed its first reading. ...
New Zealand has today missed the opportunity to uphold the right to a clean, healthy, and sustainable environment, says James Shaw after his member’s bill was voted down in its first reading. ...
Today’s advice from the Climate Change Commission paints a sobering reality of the challenge we face in combating climate change, especially in light of recent Government policy announcements. ...
Minister for Disability Issues Penny Simmonds appears to have delayed a report back to Cabinet on the progress New Zealand is making against international obligations for disabled New Zealanders. ...
Hundreds of New Zealand families affected by Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorder (FASD) will benefit from a new Government focus on prevention and treatment, says Health Minister Dr Shane Reti. “We know FASD is a leading cause of preventable intellectual and neurodevelopmental disability in New Zealand,” Dr Reti says. “Every day, ...
Regional Development Minister Shane Jones today attended the official opening of Kaikohe’s new $14.7 million sports complex. “The completion of the Kaikohe Multi Sports Complex is a fantastic achievement for the Far North,” Mr Jones says. “This facility not only fulfils a long-held dream for local athletes, but also creates ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters’ engagements in Türkiye this week underlined the importance of diplomacy to meet growing global challenges. “Returning to the Gallipoli Peninsula to represent New Zealand at Anzac commemorations was a sombre reminder of the critical importance of diplomacy for de-escalating conflicts and easing tensions,” Mr Peters ...
Ambassador Millar, Burgemeester, Vandepitte, Excellencies, military representatives, distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen – good morning and welcome to this sacred Anzac Day dawn service. It is an honour to be here on behalf of the Government and people of New Zealand at Buttes New British Cemetery, Polygon Wood – a deeply ...
Distinguished guests - It is an honour to return once again to this site which, as the resting place for so many of our war-dead, has become a sacred place for generations of New Zealanders. Our presence here and at the other special spaces of Gallipoli is made ...
Mai ia tawhiti pamamao, te moana nui a Kiwa, kua tae whakaiti mai matou, ki to koutou papa whenua. No koutou te tapuwae, no matou te tapuwae, kua honoa pumautia. Ko nga toa kua hinga nei, o te Waipounamu, o te Ika a Maui, he okioki tahi me o ...
Paul Goldsmith will take on responsibility for the Media and Communications portfolio, while Louise Upston will pick up the Disability Issues portfolio, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon announced today. “Our Government is relentlessly focused on getting New Zealand back on track. As issues change in prominence, I plan to adjust Ministerial ...
Recreational catch limits will be reduced in areas of Fiordland and the Chatham Islands to help keep those fisheries healthy and sustainable, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. The lower recreational daily catch limits for a range of finfish and shellfish species caught in the Fiordland Marine Area and ...
Energy Minister Simeon Brown has welcomed an important milestone in New Zealand’s hydrogen future, with the opening of the country’s first network of hydrogen refuelling stations in Wiri. “I want to congratulate the team at Hiringa Energy and its partners K one W one (K1W1), Mitsui & Co New Zealand ...
The coalition Government is delivering on its commitment to improve resource management laws and give greater certainty to consent applicants, with a Bill to amend the Resource Management Act (RMA) expected to be introduced to Parliament next month. RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop has today outlined the first RMA Amendment ...
Overseas models for regulating the oil and gas sector, including their decommissioning regimes, are being carefully scrutinised as a potential template for New Zealand’s own sector, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. The Coalition Government is focused on rebuilding investor confidence in New Zealand’s energy sector as it looks to strengthen ...
Emergency Management and Recovery Minister Mark Mitchell has today released the Report of the Government Inquiry into the response to the North Island Severe Weather Events. “The report shows that New Zealand’s emergency management system is not fit-for-purpose and there are some significant gaps we need to address,” Mr Mitchell ...
Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith is today travelling to Europe where he’ll update the United Nations Human Rights Council on the Government’s work to restore law and order. “Attending the Universal Periodic Review in Geneva provides us with an opportunity to present New Zealand’s human rights progress, priorities, and challenges, while ...
Associate Agriculture Minister, Mark Patterson, formally reopened the world’s largest wool processing facility today in Awatoto, Napier, following a $50 million rebuild and refurbishment project. “The reopening of this facility will significantly lift the economic opportunities available to New Zealand’s wool sector, which already accounts for 20 per cent of ...
Hon Andrew Bayly, Minister for Small Business and Manufacturing At the Southland Otago Regional Engineering Collective (SOREC) Summit, 18 April, Dunedin Ngā mihi nui, Ko Andrew Bayly aho, Ko Whanganui aho Good Afternoon and thank you for inviting me to open your summit today. I am delighted ...
The Government is delivering on its commitment to bring back the Three Strikes legislation, Associate Justice Minister Nicole McKee announced today. “Our Government is committed to restoring law and order and enforcing appropriate consequences on criminals. We are making it clear that repeat serious violent or sexual offending is not ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters has today announced four new diplomatic appointments for New Zealand’s overseas missions. “Our diplomats have a vital role in maintaining and protecting New Zealand’s interests around the world,” Mr Peters says. “I am pleased to announce the appointment of these senior diplomats from the ...
New Zealand is contributing NZ$7 million to support communities affected by severe food insecurity and other urgent humanitarian needs in Ethiopia and Somalia, Foreign Minister Rt Hon Winston Peters announced today. “Over 21 million people are in need of humanitarian assistance across Ethiopia, with a further 6.9 million people ...
Minister for Arts, Culture and Heritage Paul Goldsmith is congratulating Mataaho Collective for winning the Golden Lion for best participant in the main exhibition at the Venice Biennale. "Congratulations to the Mataaho Collective for winning one of the world's most prestigious art prizes at the Venice Biennale. “It is good ...
The Government is reforming financial services to improve access to home loans and other lending, and strengthen customer protections, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly and Housing Minister Chris Bishop announced today. “Our coalition Government is committed to rebuilding the economy and making life simpler by cutting red tape. We are ...
“China remains a strong commercial opportunity for Kiwi exporters as Chinese businesses and consumers continue to value our high-quality safe produce,” Trade and Agriculture Minister Todd McClay says. Mr McClay has returned to New Zealand following visits to Beijing, Harbin and Shanghai where he met ministers, governors and mayors and engaged in trade and agricultural events with the New ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has completed a successful trip to Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines, deepening relationships and capitalising on opportunities. Mr Luxon was accompanied by a business delegation and says the choice of countries represents the priority the New Zealand Government places on South East Asia, and our relationships in ...
New Zealand is demonstrating its commitment to reducing global greenhouse emissions, and supporting clean energy transition in South East Asia, through a contribution of NZ$41 million (US$25 million) in climate finance to the Asian Development Bank (ADB)-led Energy Transition Mechanism (ETM). Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Climate Change Minister Simon Watts announced ...
The Government is today releasing a list of organisations who received letters about the Fast-track applications process, says RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop. “Recently Ministers and agencies have received a series of OIA requests for a list of organisations to whom I wrote with information on applying to have a ...
Attorney-General Judith Collins today announced the appointment of Wellington Barrister David Jonathan Boldt as a Judge of the High Court, and the Honourable Justice Matthew Palmer as a Judge of the Court of Appeal. Justice Boldt graduated with an LLB from Victoria University of Wellington in 1990, and also holds ...
Education Minister Erica Stanford will lead the New Zealand delegation at the 2024 International Summit on the Teaching Profession (ISTP) held in Singapore. The delegation includes representatives from the Post Primary Teachers’ Association (PPTA) Te Wehengarua and the New Zealand Educational Institute (NZEI) Te Riu Roa. The summit is co-hosted ...
A stopbank upgrade project in Tairawhiti partly funded by the Government has increased flood resilience for around 7000ha of residential and horticultural land so far, Regional Development Minister Shane Jones says. Mr Jones today attended a dawn service in Gisborne to mark the end of the first stage of the ...
Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters will represent the Government at Anzac Day commemorations on the Gallipoli Peninsula next week and engage with senior representatives of the Turkish government in Istanbul. “The Gallipoli campaign is a defining event in our history. It will be a privilege to share the occasion ...
Science, Innovation and Technology and Defence Minister Judith Collins will next week attend the OECD Science and Technology Ministerial conference in Paris and Anzac Day commemorations in Belgium. “Science, innovation and technology have a major role to play in rebuilding our economy and achieving better health, environmental and social outcomes ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon held a bilateral meeting today with the President of the Philippines, Ferdinand Marcos Jr. The Prime Minister was accompanied by MP Paulo Garcia, the first Filipino to be elected to a legislature outside the Philippines. During today’s meeting, Prime Minister Luxon and President Marcos Jr discussed opportunities to ...
The Government has announced that $20 million in funding will be made available to Westport to fund much needed flood protection around the town. This measure will significantly improve the resilience of the community, says Local Government Minister Simeon Brown. “The Westport community has already been allocated almost $3 million ...
The Government is proud to support the first ever Repco Supercars Championship event in Taupō as up to 70,000 motorsport fans attend the Taupō International Motorsport Park this weekend, says Economic Development Minister Melissa Lee. “Anticipation for the ITM Taupō Super400 is huge, with tickets and accommodation selling out weeks ...
Local Government Minister Simeon Brown has announced an increase to the Rates Rebate Scheme, putting money back into the pockets of low-income homeowners. “The coalition Government is committed to bringing down the cost of living for New Zealanders. That includes targeted support for those Kiwis who are doing things tough, such ...
The Coalition Government is investing in a project to boost survival rates of New Zealand mussels and grow the industry, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones has announced. “This project seeks to increase the resilience of our mussels and significantly boost the sector’s productivity,” Mr Jones says. “The project - ...
Benefit figures released today underscore the importance of the Government’s plan to rebuild the economy and have 50,000 fewer people on Jobseeker Support, Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston says. “Benefit numbers are still significantly higher than when National was last in government, when there was about 70,000 fewer ...
The Government’s commitment to doubling New Zealand’s renewable energy capacity is backed by new data showing that clean energy has helped the country reach its lowest annual gross emissions since 1999, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts says. New Zealand’s latest Greenhouse Gas Inventory (1990-2022) published today, shows gross emissions fell ...
The Government is bringing the earthquake-prone building review forward, with work to start immediately, and extending the deadline for remediations by four years, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “Our Government is focused on rebuilding the economy. A key part of our plan is to cut red tape that ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and his Thai counterpart, Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, have today agreed that New Zealand and the Kingdom of Thailand will upgrade the bilateral relationship to a Strategic Partnership by 2026. “New Zealand and Thailand have a lot to offer each other. We have a strong mutual desire to build ...
RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop and Transport Minister Simeon Brown have today announced the Coalition Government’s intention to extend port coastal permits for a further 20 years, providing port operators with certainty to continue their operations. “The introduction of the Resource Management Act in 1991 required ports to obtain coastal ...
Today’s announcement that inflation is down to 4 per cent is encouraging news for Kiwis, but there is more work to be done - underlining the importance of the Government’s plan to get the economy back on track, acting Finance Minister Chris Bishop says. “Inflation is now at 4 per ...
Tara Ward talks to presenter Naomi Toilalo about the new TV show that turns food waste into a three course feast. Naomi Toilalo is standing in the warehouse at Good Neighbour Tauranga, helping unpack the two-and-a-half tonnes of rejected food that will arrive at the community support hub that day. ...
Scout is our latest Dog of the Month. This feature was offered as a reward during our What’s Eating Aotearoa PledgeMe campaign. Thank you to Scout’s human, Avril, for her support. Dog name: Scout (named after the little girl in To Kill a Mockingbird – she inherited the independent spirit ...
Megan Alatini takes us through her life in TV, including ‘terrible’ daytime TV, the class of Carol Hirschfeld and her most embarrassing TrueBliss moment. When she responded to a vague newspaper ad asking “do you have what it takes to be a popstar?” 25 years ago, Megan Alatini never guessed ...
A new exhibition in Wellington showcases the faces behind your local goods and services. Back in 1977, when I was a fine arts student at the University of Canterbury, I took a series of photographs of Christchurch shopkeepers. The photos were for a calendar – a project for my end ...
Toomaj and his resistance to tyranny through his songs have become an icon for the youth of Iran, so his sentence has hit the nation hard. Toomaj Salehi is not the first artist to pay the price for standing with the people. ...
My cousin Dylan and I spotted these big eels under the bridge that summer. We watched them lounging under the dark weed, facing into the flow of water, their mouths frozen open. Dylan and I couldn’t stop thinking about those eels. The night we went down to the creek, we ...
Newsroom, home of satire. My long-running weekly satirical series The Secret Diary has moved to Newsroom and will appear every Saturday, with Victor Billot’s wildly popular satirical Odes continuing to appear every Sunday. Diaries, Odes – while serious political columnists toil at meaningful opinions and stroke their chins to an ...
Tara Ward unravels the many nuanced layers of a cartoon about talking dogs.This is an excerpt from our weekly pop culture newsletter Rec Room. Sign up here. It’s not often an episode of a children’s cartoon has adults sobbing into their sleeves, but that’s exactly what happened this week when ...
Working as a doctor in developing countries to help communities achieve better health outcomes is nothing short of a life goal for Jessica Tater. The University of Otago medical student has her sights firmly set on joining the international humanitarian organisation Doctors Without Borders/Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) when she qualifies ...
There’s an island in the far reaches of Auckland’s territory, sitting off the tip of the Coromandel Peninsula, 30 minutes by air from the city or four hours on the slow boat. Aotea Great Barrier is off-grid, it has a population of fewer than a thousand people … and most ...
Asia Pacific Report An Australian author and advocate, Jim Aubrey, today led a national symbolic one minute’s silence to mark the “blood debt” owed to Papuan allies during the Second World War indigenous resistance against the invading Japanese forces. “A promise to most people is a promise,” Aubrey said in ...
Asia Pacific Report The Freedom Flotilla is ready to sail to Gaza, reports Kia Ora Gaza. All the required paperwork has been submitted to the port authority, and the cargo has been loaded and prepared for the humanitarian trip to the besieged enclave. However, organisers received word of an “administrative ...
Pacific Media Watch Palestine solidarity protesters today demonstrated at the Auckland headquarters of Television New Zealand, accusing the country’s major TV network of broadcasting “propaganda” backing Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza. About 50 protesters targeted the main entrance to the TVNZ building near Sky Tower and also picketed a side ...
Opinion by Lynley Hood. Forty years on from my 1985 Fulbright Grant, my disquiet over the war in Gaza evoked some troubling questions. The answer to my first question – What is the primary purpose of the Fulbright Programme? – was on the Fulbright NZ website. It says: US Senator, ...
The ministers responsible for green-lighting major projects need to be open about potential conflicts of interest, says Transparency International. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Anastasia Powell, Professor, Family and Sexual Violence, RMIT University It has been a particularly distressing start to the year. There is little that can ease the current grief of individuals, families and communities who have needlessly lost a loved one to men’s ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Gregory Moore, Senior Research Associate, School of Ecosystem and Forest Sciences, The University of Melbourne Lichen, the first described example of symbiosis.AdeJ Artventure/Shutterstock Once known only to those studying biology, the word symbiosis is now widely used. Symbiosis is the intimate ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kim Hemsley, Head, Childhood Dementia Research Group, Flinders Health and Medical Research Institute, College of Medicine and Public Health, Flinders University Olena Ivanova/Shutterstock “Childhood” and “dementia” are two words we wish we didn’t have to use together. But sadly, around 1,400 ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Whiteford, Professor, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University The government’s Economic Inclusion Advisory Committee has just published its second report. It was set up by Treasurer Jim Chalmers and Minister for Social Services Amanda Rishworth in 2022 to provide: ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne The Queensland state election will be held in October. A YouGov poll for The Courier Mail, conducted April 9–17 from a sample ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Amin Naeni, PhD candidate at Alfred Deakin Institute for Citizenship and Globalisation, Deakin University There’s been much talk in recent months about what a possible second Donald Trump presidency in the United States could mean for Europe, Russia’s war in Ukraine, the ...
A brief round-up of submissions on the controversial proposed law. This is an excerpt from our weekly environmental newsletter Future Proof. Sign up here. Last week, submissions on the controversial Fast-track Approvals Bill closed just hours after the government released a list of stakeholder organisations who were sent letters advising how they could ...
A poem from Robin Peace’s new collection Detritus of Empire: feather / grass / rock. Cereal giving I see a woman’s hands, see her curious hands break a stalk as she walks through the tall prairie, the savannah, the steppe, wherever it was. See her idly bite the grass that ...
The only published and available best-selling indie book chart in New Zealand is the top 10 sales list recorded every week at Unity Books’ stores in High St, Auckland, and Willis St, Wellington.AUCKLAND1 Hemingway’s Goblet by Dermot Ross (Mary Egan Publishing, $38)A handsomely produced (debossed cover, lovely ...
The Commissioner's decision validates the longstanding efforts of the local community and ensures that Awataha Marae will be managed to serve the needs of the local community, particularly for hosting tangihanga. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tristan Salles, Associate professor, University of Sydney Examples of Australian landscapes.Unsplash Seventy thousand years ago, the sea level was much lower than today. Australia, along with New Guinea and Tasmania, formed a connected landmass known as Sahul. Around this time – ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Felicity Castagna, Lecturer, Creative Writing, Western Sydney University Day Day Market, ParramattaPhoto: Garry Trinh I live on the edge of Parramatta, Australia’s fastest-growing city, on the kind of old-fashioned suburban street that has 1950s fibros constructed in the post-war housing boom, ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michael Ryan, Teaching Fellow in Economics, University of Waikato GettyImagesfatido/Getty Images There is an ongoing global debate over whether the high inflation seen in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic can be lowered without a recession. New Zealand is not ...
The ‘Wicked Game’ heartthrob is in his late 60s now. That didn’t stop him putting on a lively, goofy and very sparkly show. Apart from ‘Wicked Game’, which graces a sultry playlist of mine simply called 💋, my last sustained Chris Isaak listening session took place when I was about ...
Analysis - Two ministers were stripped of portfolios in a warning to Cabinet, drama broke out at the Waitangi Tribunal, and the gang patch ban bill ran into opposition. ...
Tara Ward makes an impassioned plea for some vital pop culture merch. In April 1999, I became obsessed with a new reality television show called Popstars. Every Tuesday night, five strangers transformed into music royalty before my very eyes as Joe, Keri, Carly, Erika and Megan were chosen to form ...
PNG Post-Courier In the early hours of ANZAC Day, aerial photographs captured an impressive gathering of Australians and Papua New Guineans at Isurava in the Northern (Oro) Province. The solemn dawn service yesterday was held at a site steeped in history, where some of the fiercest battles of World War ...
The PSA is shocked that Oranga Tamariki has used the cost cutting drive to downgrade its commitment to Te Ao Māori and remove many specialist Māori roles. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ian Kemish, Adjunct Professor, School of Historical and Philosophical Inquiry, The University of Queensland There can be no more powerful symbol of the relationship between Australia and Papua New Guinea than the prime ministers of these neighbouring countries walking together on the ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sharon Robinson, Distinguished Professor and Deputy Director of ARC Securing Antarctica’s Environmental Future (SAEF), University of Wollongong, University of Wollongong Andrew Netherwood Over the last 25 years, the ozone hole which forming over Antarctica each spring has started to shrink. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Viktoria Kahui, Senior Lecturer in Environmental Economics, University of Otago Getty Images/Amy Toensing Biodiversity is declining at rates unprecedented in human history. This suggests the ways we currently use to manage our natural environment are failing. One emerging concept focuses on ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Timothy Colin Bednall, Associate Professor in Management, Swinburne University of Technology marvent/Shutterstock Finding the best person to fill a position can be tough, from drafting a job ad to producing a shortlist of top interview candidates. Employers typically consider information from ...
Wondering where to host your next BYO? Whether its a small gathering or a massive party, we’ve got some recommendations. I was first introduced to the concept of BYOs at Dunedin’s India Gardens, a legendary but sadly defunct establishment, which purveyed enormous quantities of mango chicken to Aotearoa’s drunkest future ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Julien Cooper, Honorary Lecturer, Department of History and Archaeology, Macquarie University Julien Cooper The hyper-arid desert of Eastern Sudan, the Atbai Desert, seems like an unlikely place to find evidence of ancient cattle herders. But in this dry environment, my new ...
The sector says it’s hopeful her replacement Paul Goldsmith will be able to throw it a lifeline, after six months with a minister deemed missing in action, writes Catherine McGregor in this excerpt from The Bulletin, The Spinoff’s morning news round-up. To receive The Bulletin in full each weekday, sign ...
The government can't just rely on axing public sector jobs and has to do more to cut spending, says the chief economist at a free market think tank. ...
Rock The Vote NZ, known for its advocacy for minor party unity and its role within the Freedoms NZ Coalition during the 2023 General Election, celebrates this merger as a strategic enhancement of its operational strength and outreach. ...
Nearly everyone has experienced the frustration of something you use breaking and being difficult or expensive to fix. Proposed legislation could change that. It’s been raining on and off all Sunday afternoon but people are lining up outside a building in a corner of Gribblehirst Park in Sandringham, Auckland. In ...
What does a forever relationship look like when you don’t believe in marriage? And how do you celebrate it? This essay is part of our Sunday Essay series, made possible thanks to the support of Creative New Zealand.I’m going to do it, right now. I’m going to say ...
You can’t have missed the Gallipoli story as the movies, documentaries, essays and books capture what it was like for New Zealand troops in their eight-month campaign on the Peninsula. But this Anzac Day the Auckland War Memorial Museum has published a book that sheds light on a little-known aspect of the ...
The Prime Minister has committed to resuming direct flights to Thailand. But it’s not a promise he will be able to deliver on anytime soon. The post Prime Minister jumps the gun in Thailand appeared first on Newsroom. ...
It’s not that long ago Eliza McCartney was seriously wondering if the Paris Olympics would be her pole vaulting swansong. After years of being hounded by injury after injury, the Rio Olympics bronze medallist was still confident she would compete at her second Olympics in Paris in July, unless something ...
FICTION 1 Take Two by Danielle Hawkins (Allen & Unwin, $36.99) There’s commercial fiction, like this book, and then there’s quality fiction, quality writers, quality literature; the forthcoming Auckland Writers Festival is full of quality, and ReadingRoom has two tickets to give away to the following events: Paul Lynch (Dublin ...
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Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra In the free-for-all between the Australian government and Big Tech boss Elon Musk this week, the government had to be on a winner. Most people would have little sympathy with Musk’s vociferous opposition to ...
Asia Pacific Report Chief Mandla Mandela, a member of the National Assembly of South Africa and Nelson Mandela’s grandson, has joined the Freedom Flotilla in istanbul as the ships prepare to sail for Gaza, reports Kia Ora Gaza. Mandela is also the ambassador for the Global Campaign to Return to ...
Pacific Media Watch Journalists who report on environmental issues are encountering growing difficulties in many parts of the world, reports Reporters Without Borders. According to the tally kept by RSF, 200 journalists have been subjected to threats and physical violence, including murder, in the past 10 years because they were ...
Analysis by Dr Bryce Edwards, Democracy Project (https://democracyproject.nz)Political scientist, Dr Bryce Edwards. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has surprised everyone with his ruthlessness in sacking two of his ministers from their crucial portfolios. Removing ministers for poor performance after only five months in the job just doesn’t normally happen in ...
Hang in there Simon! Just remember, Bill led the party to a vote share of 20.93% yet he went on to become Prime Munster. Helen had 6 years of lousy polling and one lost election before she succeeded. You can do it, Simon. Have faith and tough it out!
It can't open and close gates or do fencing. Yet. But it’s got rolling in something nasty sorted.
https://www.sciencealert.com/spot-the-robot-dog-is-now-herding-sheep-in-new-zealand
That was interesting and kind of creepy.
One immediate potential application that comes to mind is precision application of agrichemicals. Instead of spraying massive amounts of fertilizer or pesticide or weedkillers indiscriminately, send a bunch of robospots out to just do spot applications wherever needed.
and crowd control (there they can spray the nasty chemicals), or maybe replace wardens and turn keys in prisons, oh my gosh the applications for spotty the robot dog are endless and we don't even need to walk him or feed him.
https://www.bbc.com/news/av/technology-52619568/coronavirus-robot-dog-enforces-social-distancing-in-singapore-park
https://www.odt.co.nz/news/world/meet-robot-dog-enforcing-social-distancing-singapore
mind shepherding truly is an activitie where lots of people mingle and get infected, right? So many people all working soooo close together. 🙂
As an introvert, I'm finding the new social acceptability of distancing to be the best thing ever. So I'm struggling to come up with any objection to what's happening in your two links.
I'm angling for wangling a way to extend the social distancing for ever
I'm sorry I'm compromised I'll say for any invitation more than 10 , which is my upper comfort limit
Or just save us all time and energy and switch to RegenAg instead.
How bucolic.
Yeah. When they take over, I'm really going to miss the dulcet tones of small petrol engines and large diesels. All lacking effective mufflers on their exhausts.
Another aspect is that these could improve productivity in tropical agriculture which has traditionally been limited by the intensive labour needed for the crops grown in these climates.
That could conceivably change the prospects for chronically poor nations like the Phillipines.
I think it would be difficult to replace humans in agriculture, without inviting a world of trouble .
We already reap the bitter rewards of factory farming
There's a true stewardship of the soil thats not just about inputs and outputs , spraying for pests and diseases etc , as if the earth is a mechanical being
Regenerative agriculture depends on acute observation over time ,and an intuitive "learning" of each complex environment
Only humans can have the serendipitous moments necessary
I totally understand what you are saying; it makes sense and I've no argument. I wasn't imagining humans being replaced. As an automation engineer I've had the chance to see the impact up close and personal’ and everything I’ve seen is that automation works to amplify and assist human capacity. It has no independent existence.
In my view no automation or AI system will ever replace human consciousness. Superhuman AI will turn out to be one of what Vernor Vinge called 'the failed dreams'.
The reason is that consciousness is not computational. (And if Roger Penrose says so that's good enough for me.)
Where machines shine is being able to do the simple routine tasks that are able to be condensed into an algorithm. Thereby freeing up time for humans to be able to do more observing, learning, and synthesis of new and different ways of doing things.
which is good in a factory, not so much in nature.
Shocking to some I know, but farms are nature not factories.
W've been hearing about autonomous ships for decades, now.
In reality they haven't even developed controls and machinery, that can get reliably through a day, without human intervention.
I really don't get the whole automation ideology. Let's use that where appropriate, but there's nothing wrong with people doing things. Lots of people love growing food (and I assume love working on ships), so why not take advantage of that and design systems that are good for people and are functional.
Yup. And that's the general pattern, automation is best thought of as a tool to extend human capacity, not to replace it.
In reality they haven't even developed controls and machinery, that can get reliably through a day, without human intervention.
I once got a major water treatment plant to run autonomously for 9 days without operator intervention … it was quite an accomplishment!
But in general you are right, and it's my view that the prime role of automation is to reliably control the routine, predictable tasks and free up the humans involved so that they can focus their much more flexible and creative energies on higher value add.
Autopilots are a good example you will familiar with, no-one hand steers any more than they have to or enjoy doing these days. And the modern versions do a better job of holding track than a human anyway. On the other hand deciding where the track should be plotted still remains a task better suited to people. Usually.
RL Now that's a point. The temp is said to be going beyond what humans can cope with working in the fields growing food, and can’t do enough with new tech or have enough covers, already is in India etc. So robots to do that would make sense. Unfortunately, the way our 'civilisation' is configured these days, the good of robotising will be compromised by the attack/defence capabilities. But what can't be cured must be endured perhaps.
Funny. Yesty, the boss was talking about her teen son's idea.
Getting 2 or 3 lawnmower robots. We have about 60 lawns ranging from about 2 square metres up to around 50 square metres.
I smiled enthusiastically when mention of a drone to control them came up.
What about thoughts of having city lawn clippings as base for silage for farmers? Ever pursued that idea gsays, it would have to be planned, done carefully, a range of weeds kept out and no spraying, and people take responsibility but it could mean free lawn mowing for them.
I work in a senior lifestyle village.
Rather than silage, I investigated and proposed composting of grass clippings, leaf mulch, tree trimmings and the kitchen scraps.
The compost would be returned to the sub standard soil that is found in most new housing developments.
Long story short (too late!), the residents had concerns about appearances, smell and rats. The management didn't see the benefits…. I have walked this earth long enough to try and convince folk against their will.
Every time I tip another catcher full of clippings into the skip bin, a little part of me dies. Then the last two frosty mornings the bin has been toasty warm with the decomposition starting up.
I read a while back that the DCC had bought a remote control lawnmower – still needed a remote control unit run by an operator, but it was intended to make mowing slopes safer. Ah, here we are.
The fun question is "if the drone controls the mowers, what controls how the drone controls the mowers?"
Not sure I like the idea of autonomous mowers – we don't need to give our robots-gone-berserk edged weapons. Very sci-fi peasant revolt, that.
Ha. Reminds me of my Dad telling us, about the self propelled mower that got away from him, and ended up drowned in the Avon. Briggs and Stratton petrol reel mower, of course.
More recently the automated straddle carrier, that made a bid for freedom in a Dutch port. Through the gate and down the street.
My own favourite machinery with a life of their own, are Lister and Gardener diesels, that have to be thoroughly suffocated to get them to stop. Unlike modern ones, where one dud chip on an electronics board can kill them
On an unrelated subject, I was on University Tube looking to upgrade my drill press with a DC permanent magnet motor from a treadmill…
Anyhow, one of the videos talked about fancy saw benches have 'flesh detectors', that shut down the motor when your fingers get too close.
I figure these lawn automatons would have a similar tech involved.
I suspect it's easier to train a computer to distinguish between wood and a finger than it is between fresh mulch or dog turds and a finger.
Easier to train as long as your willing to lose a bunch of fingers getting there.
The SawStop works by running a small electric current through the saw blade and detecting when its interrupted by an electrically conductive body part.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SawStop
Thanks for the reading.
There are 10 table saw amputations a day in the US.
" After numerous tests using a hot dog as a finger-analog, in spring 2000, Gass conducted the first test with a real human finger: he applied Novocain to his left ring finger, and after two false starts, he placed his finger into the teeth of a whirring saw blade. The blade stopped as designed, and although it "hurt like the dickens and bled a lot," his finger remained intact."
sends a shudder down the spine.
I have gone to a mates workshop to find doors open, blood spattered table saw outside and no-one around.
He lost his right index finger-tip.
Ever seen the Black Mirror series?
There's an episode with post-apocalyptic survivors being hunted by super wired dog robots.Horrifying
Metalheads, my first thought too, brilliant episode, brilliant series. Check out Black Mirrors creator Charlie Brookers Anti Viral Wipe (about UKs response to pandemic) on YouTube for a good laugh and also quite insightful.
I've been a fan of Charlie Brooker's since he wrote for nerdy games mag, PC Zone during the '90s. He's viciously hilarious and his books are great. They should really make him PM.
Yes and it will happen too. All tools get misused, the problem is always the workman.
a bad tool blames the workman!
thats a T shirt!
No. But I can imagine.
I also think that the military in many countries will already be/or looking into weaponising these.
Yup. Absolutely and we will live to see the horror. Sorry if that comes across as grim.
Might not be age-appropriate for the TS audience, but after having and reading the Harry Potter series to four children – (should have bought Stephen Fry's audiobooks when they came out) your Grim reference immediately struck me as appropriate.
" The Grim is an omen of death, which is reputed to bring about the demise of the person who encounters it. The Grim takes the shape of a large, black, menaching, spectral dog. "
(BTW: Still trying to keep the offspring reading. Just bought two Terry Pratchett novels for the nineteen year old's birthday next week. It's a shared enjoyment.)
Pratchett is wonderful; he's the only other author I still keep a full collection of every published novel I could buy. (The other is of course Vernor Vinge.)
Going Postal was pure genius.
Thanks, will check out Vernor Vinge for him. He's still likes collections…
He has the book for Going Postal, and we all enjoyed the miniseries. Even the youngest.
Was delighted to find four pristine Pratchett hardcover books in our local charity shop last year – 25c each.
I absolutely HATE shopping, but I was embarrassingly overjoyed to make that purchase.
My first read was the Peace War trilogy which I'd imagine would appeal to a young adult. Then there is the Zone of Thought series starting with A Fire Upon the Deep that I regard as absolute scifi masterpieces, but are longer reads.
Vinge was a computer scientist and mathematician and brings a similar veritas to his work that Asimov did.
Can't go wrong by reading Pratchett Red. I like the Big Bang Theory in one of his Disc world novels. Mort I think. I have it somewhere, will have to have a read of it again.
… In the beginning there was nothing, which exploded.
The wonderful Bob Clarkson (former MP) was just on the radio nationale. Said Todd is the equal of Simon, and would definitely be better than the "communist" currently in charge.
Thank you Bob, for capturing the mood of the nation…
Bob who?
Worth repeating (from Colmar Brunton thread):
28% of National voters disapprove of the "communist". That's 28% out of 29% which is … *counts fingers* … single digits.
They don't even understand their own voters, never mind the rest of the country.
haha was that Bob the Builder , who briefly ousted Winnie?
And then replaced by Bridges. The rising star.
It'll be quite the twist of fate if Bridges leaves Parliament before Peters. He already knows he won't rise as high in government. Ouch.
Wonder if he's willing to bet his left testicle?
This is all getting a little incestuous:
Peters = former MP for Tauranga
Clarkson = former MP for Tauranga
Bridges = current MP for Tauranga
Muller = current MP for a Seat that is basically Tauranga Suburbs
"Communist", really?
Last time I looked, there was no nationalisation of businesses without compensation, collectivisation of land and agriculture or even purges of those seen as enemies of the state, unless you count Mike Hosking leaving 7 Sharp.
People need to start calling the likes of Clarkson out.
You are calling him out.
Why argue with someone who is so thick he thinks Ardern is a communist?
"Mr Clarkson, the Prime Minister's critics say she has focused too much on keeping you alive, are you one of them?"
A quick Google of 'Bob Clarkson MP' found that he had been called out by quite a few people in the media.
Issues with Bob the Builder involved anti-gay and anti Muslim comments, stoushes with family over money, blaming people who lived near industrial sites for complaining about heath problems from dust.
Now we find he doesn't like our "Communist" PM even though he does call by her first name. I presume that local National people called him out because he only had one term as Tauranga MP. Later news said he was leaving to join ACT.
After all these years, a one term wonder is called back to comment on Bridges and Muller on RNZ. I listened to the interview. It's an interesting interview from the point of view of personal values and political support.
RNZ did neither Muller or Bridges a favour by allying such support to them from this man.
"Our rights are being violated. That is all actually real," Stokes said. "But this is one of the few times that's ok. Pandemics – these call for a collectivist response. They don't work without one." An American gun rights activist gets it, the people calling Labour communist don't.
I remember it was a trap lefties got into when National/Key were flying high, disparaging their supporters as stupid etc, I see it with the righties now, didn't work for us and shouldn't for them either.
Also, I watched the One News last night, first time in years, and I waited to see what the Muller guy was gonna be like, and they had no footage, just some friends saying he wss a good "bugger" & that "maoris stole his flash sandwiches at school", or something.
One last thing, to me the Labour numbers proves no one is listening to Hosking, Garner etc or reading the Herald.
Who thought it was a good idea to put him up to give public comment and use airtime? He's a has been of the worst sort and his opinion as irrelevant as most of the public. It smacks of irresponsible journalists. What is national radio's guidelines for selecting commentators?
Interesting Guardian article yesterday about negative interest rates coming up in the UK.
It refers to the Danish Jyske Bank which launched it's first negative interest mortgage rate last year:
I'm thinking there may be benefits for this happening in New Zealand.
1. Palatable or not, those best able to weather the financial implications of Covid will most often be those who have the excess income, and ability to amass savings. They will not gain interest but they will also retain equity on their savings, unless the savings are more than a specified amount, such as in Sweden:
Those implications may mean that those with money may choose to invest in businesses or spend it which will circulate that money and improve the economy recovery.
2. For mortgage holders, this will allow a practical relief from the financial commitment of a mortgage, while still maintaining a payment relationship with their bank. It may be able – in many cases – to offset financial hardship resulting from reduced pay or unemployment.
3. A further benefit is, that if housing prices fall significantly (which would be a huge benefit to society) those who have entered the market lately, when it is most inflated, will have a reduced payment for the rest of the mortgage, offsetting a larger amount of equity loss than those who are at the end of their mortgages.
That is, if a mortgage has been taken out for $500,000 today and goes for twenty years at 4.0% paid weekly, the interest paid over that time is $226,569 accounting for just over 31% If of payments during that time. (NB: I used the stuff mortgage calculator for these calculations)
If that mortgage is transferred to what the Jyse bank offers there are two options:
a. Keep the 20 year term and reduce the weekly payment to $481
b: Retain your existing weekly payment of $699 and reduce your term to 14 years.
c: A combination of either above.
This is a reduction of around 30% of current mortgage commitments on offer. This provides a cushion for house prices to fall – 20-25% or more without causing excessive financial harm for home owners and tenants.
For me, the elegance of this proposal is that those who are at the end of their mortgages – and will not gain as much benefit as those at the beginning – will have, during their mortgage term have already accumulated untaxed, and inflated capital gains so their direct investment will still be higher than what they have contributed. In fact, any mortgage transferring over will have built into it a proportional cost/benefit that relates to the loss of equity if house prices fall vs the reduction in interest payable on that property.
This is kind of a follow up comment to the article I posted from the NEF last week.
I am coming from the perspective that house prices and rental costs need to fall significantly – and have needed to for a while. I also understand that many NZers have all their financial wealth and security in their homes, and need to be considered.
I would like to see our government administer or legislate for such a solution.
Ideally, it would be a government agency, such as the State Advances Corporation that provided home loans to ex-servicemen.
To facilitate rollout it may be necessary to provide in tranches depending on owner/occupier and citizenship status. I'd personally delay offering to family trusts or LLC's or overseas residents because their choice of vehicle provides them with some insulation from taxes, expense and financial shocks already.
I'd be interested to hear from others about problems they can see with this proposal, to see if there are any kinks that needed to be worked out if it was to be a practical and possible option.
(Quick correction: Just noticed the -0.5% bank rate only applies to 10 years and I used it for the whole 20 yr term, which is only offered at 0%. Will update on next comment)
… still a term reduction of 6 years according to stuff at $699/wk.
Hi Molly, it's a trend to watch for sure. When I grew up & got a savings account the bank paid me 3% interest to deposit money in it. Banking then had a structural incentive to get more custom. We may be returning to it!
John Campbell interviewed a young asian guy who spoke our lingo like a kiwi a few days ago, about quantitative easing. He was representing the Reserve Bank on the TVNZ breakfast show. They've recently doubled their qe. He said the new money gets created as electronic credit (which I knew), which would have confounded many viewers but he was refreshingly forthright and sensible in not spooking them by calling those dollars imaginary. They become real when digitally invented.
So the way to keep the economy going now is to invent money. Farmers could use this thinking in times of drought, eh? Invent rain. How? Well, easiest way is to catch and store it when it falls. They could call that process water conservation. Conservatives ought to conserve, eh? You'd think. The reason farmers don't is because they believe rain always falls eventually. As Tom Petty once sang "the waiting is the hardest part"…
Catching and storing rain is fine for targeted irrigation but the dam needs to be half the size of the farm for an effective grazing regime. And it does rain most of the time.
The numbers around volume and weight for just 20mm on a thousand hectare farm are astronomical. Clever farming is a better option.
That's utter nonsense.
And even if it were true (it's total crap) aquaculture is more productive than farming, because gravity.
I think the most important thing to understand about all this stuff was highlighted to me simply by the US economist Randell Wray (and recently I heard this idea repeated by the US Fed chairman in a public interview where he encouraged the US treasury to spend more).
The statement (miss-quoted) is "the central bank lends and the treasury spends". Treasury spending gets spending moving including when facilitated by central QE programs to lower the government interest rates, but all the monetary policy stuff done by the central bank is about changing the interest rates and so all depends on the amount of interest in taking on loans.
Hi Dennis, good analogy.
Using that analogy, I would say that would require the government to direct the rain to fall more equitably, instead of providing torrential downpours on dams and giving the control to commercial banks and saying turn the taps on as you wish. (Or don't.)
You mean a Chinese New Zealander or suchlike?
This fine gentleman?
https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/about-us/senior-management/yuong-ha
Yeah, that's him. Came across well, I thought.
A post about many of the incorrect things you will hear said about government spending and its impacts on the economy. In this case highlighting that the Bank of England is presently falsifying many of these ideas.
http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=45026
That's a very interesting thing to observe, seeing this in practice doesn't make much sense to me however.
Negative interest rates (which I believe Sweden's central bank is running) mean that the banks deposits with the central bank lose money. Collectively there is no way for the financial sector to rid itself of these excess deposits (other than lending them to the government) as any payments they make then go to another large financial institution. The upshot of this is that government debt often ends up lending at negative interest rates which are however lower than what the central bank is offering.
This is what is going on with the charges banks are setting for holding onto large deposits.
What makes little sense to me however is public loans at negative interest rates, and I suspect there is some missing piece such as a small number of these loans are made as an advertising ploy by the bank. The reason I understand things this way is because the interest component paid on a loan is basically the income part of the arrangement for the bank. If there is negative income to the arrangement then it makes little sense to enter into the loan agreement. Maybe Jyske bank is simply leading the pack in this case, but if all the banks are doing this then collectively it seems to make more sense to get out of the banking game.
Your concerns are already covered in the comment, Nic. This is about ensuring everyone gets through intact. No interest on deposits does not remove equity, just encourages direct investment and spending.
" Maybe Jyske bank is simply leading the pack in this case, but if all the banks are doing this then collectively it seems to make more sense to get out of the banking game. "
Banks still can charge fees, as I believe Jyske does, but not excessively. Long-time the banks will be able to survive, and their chance of survival improves if the majority of their customers are financially secure. But we have businesses – banks included – that are not used to long-term thinking.
And why can't the government play the game to benefit all NZers?
Molly, I'm not saying it would be a bad thing if this happened. I just think its unlikely to be something which can be setup as a widespread part of the financial system, as your expecting banks to engage in widespread unprofitable lending. The long term thinking on that game is to stop being in the business of banking.
I did consider that this can be a way to shrink the financial system which might be a good thing to do to some extent. I do think this aligns with something which seems to be not widely understood, but low (or even negative) interest rates are actually less favorable to banks than the high interest rates, which are supposed to be restraining their lending.
I understand. But I'm not worried about the banks incentives. So, far the banks are not offering anything that doesn't improve their income substantially in the long term – which the mortgage holidays do. What the rent holidays don't necessarily do – is improve the financial security and well being of their clients.
So, I'm trying to look at it from the perspective of the people of NZ, taking into account the inflated cost of housing that has continued not to be addressed, AND the NZ cultural attachment to housing as financial security. That is the problem I'm talking about and trying to address – not how to retain the bank as a commercial entity.
The facts became somewhat more clear when I read the guardian article in full. First its a Danish bank (which I was calling Swedish) and second the banks still make profit on the loans due to the associated fees.
I suspect that in their banking system these fees are much higher than in New Zealand which has a much higher rate difference between the central bank (and money market interest rates) and commercial bank interest rates. In New Zealand the fees component is typically very small and often waived. This structure makes the New Zealand banks profitability much more opaque.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortgage_industry_of_Denmark
I would suggest that to gain the social benefits the overall cost of lending is what is relevant rather than the specifics of only some of interest rates and costs involved in the lending.
"I would suggest that to gain the social benefits the overall cost of lending is what is relevant rather than the specifics of only some of interest rates and costs involved in the lending. "
I agree, and we need to start quantifying those benefits by some means in order to know where to rebuild the economy and support NZers. SROI (Social Return on Investment) has been around for a while now, but is not often referred to in policy statements or media articles while expected returns from events such as the America's Cup are calculated and accepted without much scrutiny.
I guess – without going into the role of the central bank – any single bank would make money by taking a deposit of $10k and then repaying $9500. It loans the $10k on mortgage but receives repayments of say $9700. So it would still have a $200 margin. I made the figures up for the above.
Its a question of how far $200 goes to paying the banks employees though, and also why you do if the borrower defaults (e.g stops making repayments).
Same as banking now I expect – the margin plus any fees need to cover the banks expenses plus profit.
Absolutely. As I highlighted in other comments in Denmark they pay a lot more in fees (including an annual percentage of the loan, as a fee), in New Zealand all the payments are rolled into interest rates, so by focusing on just the interest rates this is a bit miss leading when compared to New Zealand.
Yes, I understand that as well. Which is why I have suggested a Government run system that reduces those costs as much as possible.
The banks have been very profitable and have no incentive to reduce their income from clients or reducing the inflated housing costs. They are financially better off when these are as high as possible.
A government agency – however – can consider SROI when calculating cost/benefit and a create a system that does not need mortgage brokers and refixing every two-three years. A young relative working for one of the big four banks in the mortgage lending department receives quarterly bonuses in the tens of thousands for the process of refixing existing loans or signing up new ones. There's a lot of extraneous extras that are lost when a constant long-term loan at a fixed rate is entered into.
A bank in Switzerland is already doing that – charging clients for deposits over a certain amount.
"Swiss banks are to start charging their super-rich clients to look after their piles of cash.
UBS, the world’s largest wealth manager, told its ultra-wealthy clients on Tuesday that it would introduce an annual 0.6% charge on cash savings of more than €500,000 (£461,000). The fee, to be introduced in November, rises to 0.75% on savings of more than 2m Swiss francs (£1.7m).
The minimum fee is €3,000 a year. Savings of 2m francs would attract an annual charge of 15,000 francs."
In terms of addressing the mechanisms that produce inequality, this may also go some way to improve it. At a certain point when you have met all your financial requirements to live, and have saved enough to be secure, the current financial environment allows wealth to multiply and accumulate.
Note: The Jyske bank also charges fees that cover admin and employment costs, but they are not excessive.
Following the discussion with RedLogix above the following thoughts from the character of Samuel Vines seem appropriate:
“The reason that the rich were so rich, Vimes reasoned, was because they managed to spend less money.
Take boots, for example. He earned thirty-eight dollars a month plus allowances. A really good pair of leather boots cost fifty dollars. But an affordable pair of boots, which were sort of OK for a season or two and then leaked like hell when the cardboard gave out, cost about ten dollars. Those were the kind of boots Vimes always bought, and wore until the soles were so thin that he could tell where he was in Ankh-Morpork on a foggy night by the feel of the cobbles.
But the thing was that good boots lasted for years and years. A man who could afford fifty dollars had a pair of boots that'd still be keeping his feet dry in ten years' time, while the poor man who could only afford cheap boots would have spent a hundred dollars on boots in the same time and would still have wet feet."
This was the Captain Samuel Vimes 'Boots' theory of socioeconomic unfairness.” – Terry Pratchett, Men at Arms: The Play
Terry Pratchett, economist.
Already thought of a possible improvement while AFK:
IF landlords on a property take this option, they have to take the same term and the reduced payment amount and pass on at least 80% of that saving to the tenants. That would reduce financial rental pressure immediately.
That will happen anyway in current situation …and considerably faster.
Negative rates are a very slow way of unwinding the effects of QE…. especially at -0.5%.
Why and how do you think that will happen?
I would expect quite a lot of turmoil for both homeowners, landlords and tenants that are financially stressed, and this mechanism might be a way of providing security in terms of housing without a lot of changes in ownership. (As well as providing a needed downwards pressure on housing and rental prices)
“Negative rates are a very slow way of unwinding the effects of QE…. especially at -0.5%.”
And why is slow considered a negative? This does allow a downward movement in housing prices and rentals – at -0.5% a 31% neutral position compared to maintaining the same mortgage at the current 4%.
Given the love affair and financial security many NZers have with property, we need a plan to allow many to still feel and be financially secure while creating a more affordable housing environment for all.
Any other ideas on how to do that would be great… because many have been waiting quite a while to access housing that is affordable and healthy without needing to overcrowd…
Thousands of under-utilised Air BnB properties, high and increasing unemployment, increasing State housing provision will drive it…..the same forces that will drive down property prices.
Slow is considered negative because the need is now….the tenants and mortgagees cannot wait years or decades for the ratios to begin to become aligned with the real economy again.
The RBNZ backstopping the banks is (I expect) designed to support that deflation while enabling bank viability….it would not surprise to see them take on the bad loan books of the banks and administer those mortgages in the near term to remove them from the private balance sheets. Hopefully they will have a mechanism to support owner occupied to continue and foreclose investment properties.
The mechanism you state, which is left to circumstance and commercial entities, will disrupt a lot of homeowners, landlords and tenants. The disruption may also continue for some time, and will result in NZers losing out – not banks who have benefitted from increasing debt levels for many years now. It just depends on where priorities lie.
There will also be a fast response time to reduced mortgages – for financially strapped owners and tenants.
If your housing costs are reduced immediately by 20-30% to offset the financial downturn and resulting constricting household incomes, then there is less likely to be disruption by the need to move or sell – AND find somewhere else to live. (Although, I think there still will be disruption and devastation, just perhaps reduced)
I do agree that the state has to be more involved to direct the fallout, and ensure long-term benefits to NZers.
negative rates won't create that scale or speed of reduction (immediate)…and as stated the reduction is going to occur anyway, negative rates or not.
And negative rates create other problems that make the whole regime problematic.
The mechanism I outlined is hardly left to commercial entities and circumstance (market forces) for it involves market intervention by the state…..and its not as if it hasn't been done before.
Back in the 80s high interest rate environment the government offered Housing Corp mortgages at considerably below market rate to distressed mortgages for owner occupiers….the mechanism may be different this time but the result will be the same.
P.S. disruption is not going to be avoided no matter what is done.
" Back in the 80s high interest rate environment the government offered Housing Corp mortgages at considerably below market rate to distressed mortgages for owner occupiers….the mechanism may be different this time but the result will be the same. "
What was the result from your perspective? Because the government also offered low rates to returned servicemen, and increased home ownership and security was also a result.
And, without rancour.. do you have any ideas about reducing the fallout without just allowing the market to crash? Another concern I have about that passive method is that on top of financial and housing disruption, it also reduces the likelihood of investment in improving housing stock standards, and our housing stock is still often disgracefully low in this regard.
(Already conceded disruption will occur, just looking to reduce the impact, while supporting NZ people – not entities)
"What was the result from your perspective? Because the government also offered low rates to returned servicemen, and increased home ownership and security was also a result."
When the mortgage we had taken out at 8% hit 19% we applied for a housing corp refinance and from memory the rate was 11%…and the term extended to 24 years (greater than available in the market)…the result was we didn't lose our home.
"And, without rancour.. do you have any ideas about reducing the fallout without just allowing the market to crash?"
The market is going to crash whether we like it or not…the only question is by how much. I have outlined how I believe the RBNZ will reduce the fallout….remember they are required by statute to ensure the stability of the banking system but they have also stated the property ratios are unsustainable and create instability so really their options are very limited.
And if they bail out investors (in both residential and commercial) they create the same problem for themselves that the Fed did with their QE programme….they become captured by the underwrite and cannot withdraw it….which ultimately runs counter to their charter.
"another concern I have about that passive method is that on top of financial and housing disruption, it also reduces the likelihood of investment in improving housing stock standards, and our housing stock is still often disgracefully low in this regard."
Gov is partially addressing this with increased social housing build and the improving standards can be covered by increased trades training though its not a given….there is room for much more particularly in regard to CC and density as Susan Krumdieck promotes.
I'm someone who thinks the inflated housing prices do need to come down – both for purchase and for rent.
The question is: Can this be equity adjustment occur WHILE still allowing people to live in and retain their current housing? You seem prepared to let the market which has failed us in terms of providing homes, crash AND then provide them.
You also seem to suggest you would support govt loans only for homeowners, but I don't think that would deflate the housing market substantially. Significantly, tenants would be delayed in receiving any benefit.
I would have landlords who don't use alternative entity vehicles such as trusts, or LLC's to be the next in line for government mortgages after owner occupiers.
Only if there was a capacity left, would you include commercial entities that trade in housing and rentals. I would also not offer the facility to overseas investors or non NZ citizens.
The current social housing programme is going to take a while to come online, and is inadequate unless you are counting on a vast load of properties to come on the market at diminished prices. Which while beneficial in terms of stock numbers, will have an ignored human cost to it, that might be avoided if some direct action is taken.
As mentioned, IF investors were included, they would only be able to take the reduced rate option AND be required to pass on the majority of that rate to tenants. Eg. they still get the 30% reduced payments over time to offset the expected loss of capital equity, and rental costs are directly and immediately reduced for tenants.
"The question is: Can this be equity adjustment occur WHILE still allowing people to live in and retain their current housing? You seem prepared to let the market which has failed us in terms of providing homes, crash AND then provide them."
You appear to misunderstand …the equity adjustment is going to occur….and as it does we can (and I suspect will) provision home owners to remain in their homes.
"You also seem to suggest you would support govt loans only for homeowners, but I don't think that would deflate the housing market substantially. Significantly, tenants would be delayed in receiving any benefit."
Support for homeowners is correct….if you include provision for investors you are placing the floor under the market and encourage the lending…the deflation will occur because homeowners do not require a return…it is somewhere to live…whereas investors require the return to justify the investment.
Serviceability is the key
"I would have landlords who don't use alternative entity vehicles such as trusts, or LLC's to be the next in line for government mortgages after owner occupiers."
They can be next in line…but if the gov says sorry nothing for you then the deflation occurs….there is a disincentive for banks to provide finance.
"Only if there was a capacity left, would you include commercial entities that trade in housing and rentals. I would also not offer the facility to overseas investors or non NZ citizens. "
It is not a question of capacity…the Govs ability to finance is unlimited (if we ignore future impact) …it is what is the desired outcome…commercial property is also overvalued and over leveraged…..it cannot be subsidised as that creates disconnects and disconnects from the real economy are the problem.
"the current social housing programme is going to take a while to come online, and is inadequate unless you are counting on a vast load of properties to come on the market at diminished prices. Which while beneficial in terms of stock numbers, will have an ignored human cost to it, that might be avoided if some direct action is take"
Yes the social housing will take time and in one respect I think the gov foolish to build when they could buy cheaply existing properties (there was no shortage of houses, only a shortage of affordable housing) But there are positives to building social housing including training, employment and new technology (or systems)
"As mentioned, IF investors were included, they would only be able to take the reduced rate option AND be required to pass on the majority of that rate to tenants. Eg. they still get the 30% reduced payments over time to offset the expected loss of capital equity, and rental costs are directly and immediately reduced for tenants."
And why would an investor do that?…the incentives are to quit as they are now.
Social housing opposed to state housing helps to maintain inflated housing prices.
Supporting landlords while requiring them to pass on the savings to their tenants, will still allow the market to deflate while allowing the high proportion of tenanted NZers to stay in their current housing if it is still the most appropriate for them.
You seem to expect the market which has failed, to crash, and then as it recovers – somehow do what it has failed to do in the past. Our housing situation requires a stronger government intervention to solve. Social housing programmes won't be the solution.
"As mentioned, IF investors were included, they would only be able to take the reduced rate option AND be required to pass on the majority of that rate to tenants. Eg. they still get the 30% reduced payments over time to offset the expected loss of capital equity, and rental costs are directly and immediately reduced for tenants."
And why would an investor do that?…the incentives are to quit as they are now.
Well, aren't all landlords in it for the business of providing housing at a profit and not capital gains? (/sarc) In essence, their profits won't be adversely affected – their income would reduce, but so would their expenses. The return should be equitable with pre-Covid.
I'm advocating a bottom-up approach. What do the NZ people need. We need to be housed, fed and supported – then employed. The current social housing plan is not going to cut it, it was ineffective to address the real housing issues before, and it will not deliver now.
"Social housing opposed to state housing helps to maintain inflated housing prices"
.Not sure your definition of social housing is the norm…social housing INCLUDES state housing, community and emergency housing.
"Supporting landlords while requiring them to pass on the savings to their tenants, will still allow the market to deflate while allowing the high proportion of tenanted NZers to stay in their current housing if it is still the most appropriate for them"
Supporting them how?…..and tenants can remain in their current housing (if they so desire) if the landlord changes…the property remains.
"You seem to expect the market which has failed, to crash, and then as it recovers – somehow do what it has failed to do in the past. Our housing situation requires a stronger government intervention to solve. Social housing programmes won't be the solution."
You continue misunderstand what I am outlining….'the market will do what the market does , and currently it is in a deflationary environment….the state intervention (or not) is crucial to the desired outcome…as it always was, its just that in the recent past the intervention was considered undesired
"The World Bank also says this ratio is "possibly the most important summary measure of housing market performance, indicating not only the degree to which housing is affordable by the population, but also the presence of market distortions".
Based on this official work, it seems to have become accepted that a median multiple of 3.0 times or less is a very good marker for housing affordability. Much of the work in support of the 3x standard is based on US research on the US housing market"
https://www.interest.co.nz/property/house-price-income-multiples
Is that a ratio you wish the government to "support"?…..for by requiring support for investors that's exactly what you will be doing.
I have little time for JLR but credit where it's due, this is a useful insight into how things are done inside the National caucus:
https://twitter.com/jamileeross/status/1263570896901386240
My link didn't work Observer?
Basically he says all MPs are liars and it's anyone's guess between "mr unlikable and mr unknowable". He's quite funny.
Thanks observer. A worthwhile read. Much more credible insight on the "Vote. Far more useful than some of the commentators! Thanks Jamie.
So much for the Swedish experiment:
Sweden currently ranks 8th on deaths per capita @384 per million….behind the likes of Spain, France , UK and Italy…San Marino is the highest @1209
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Ah…over the last week…lies, damn lies and statistics.
This was the source of the original article.
Also something in the Guardian about the lower than expected percentage of infected people with antibodies, the mathematicians are baffled (?????). https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/21/just-7-per-cent-of-stockholm-had-covid-19-antibodies-by-end-of-april-study-sweden-coronavirus
There's some kind of mental disconnect going on between an expected 25% antibody rate, or even a 7% antibody rate, and a reported population case rate of 0.3%.
Evidently they are putting a lot of hope into the asymptomatic infection and transmission rate being orders of magnitude higher than detected case rate. But that hope isn't supported by data from places where extensive testing of contacts is carried out (such as New Zealand), which shows that true asymptomatic cases are a small fraction of the number of symptomatic cases.
Given that most reports of antibody tests highlight the fact that most tests have a very high false positive rate, the likeliest explanation is that even the 7% at the end of April is a gross overestimate of how many have actually been exposed. Which in turn suggests that the voluntary physical distancing the Swedes have done has successfully flattened the curve, but they are just somewhere near the start of a very long broad peak of the curve.
That was my reading of it this morning as well. Covid-19 simply isn’t as infectious as originally anticipated, or it doesn’t cause the immune system to generate antibodies unless symptoms are severe or ….
But as was obvious from the start – this isn’t a standard disease
Covid-19 simply isn’t as infectious as originally anticipated
My sense is that infection spreading is mainly due to large groups getting close together and making loud noises at each other. Choir practice, bars, weddings, noisy restaurants etc. Those appear to have been the superspreading events. Then once those events stopped, and very basic precautions against spreading started, it took a lot of close personal contact for most new infections.
It kind of makes a mockery of the idea of an R0 number when most infection spread is due to a few discrete superspreading events, each resulting in a large but random number of transmissions. Rather than the picture implied by an R0 number, which suggests each infection likely passes it on to two or three other people .(or twenty in the case of measles in an unprotected population).
Ever been to a resthome lately, they're squished in like sardines, and of course NZs other outbreak was at a school.
I looked into typical infection models of the kind being used to discuss policy (the SIR form) and was astounded by how unrealistically simplistic they are. While its possible to understand they are modelling a process like viral spread its always going to be questionable if they are making a reasonable forecast, specifically as the outbreak occurs people will and have been naturally socially distance themselves from others (people automatically out less and take more precautions), but the assumption seems to be a static R0 throughout any forecast which doesn't respond to the outbreak.
Does anyone know of government reviews going on in response to the Covid-19 outbreak?
I vaguely recall talk about a review into the Covid 19 responses by DHBs after complaints about lack of surgical equipment and PPEs in some parts of the country. I can't remember the actual specifics.
That was annoying. Software security update reboot. It found a configuration issue from the operating system update earlier in the week. Set the IP incorrectly.
Rapid fix while I was in a zoom webinar.
Tyvm
The search button – is it not working?
One interesting aspect of the lockdown,and spending constraints is that NZ has reduced both its use of credit cards,and paid off over the last 2 months 1.5 billion of interest bearing credit card debt.
https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/statistics/c12
It sucks to be visa . Wonder what the impact is on the balance of payments and how much less is going to overseas as profit and fees. I'm assuming the local banks provide the capital circulated but I don't really know how it works in the background.
Another random thought – so far banks and credit card companies seem to have made up the fraud losses. that happen but with the changing banking enviroment will security become a higher profile activity?
I see James' favourite politician, Jair Bolsonaro, is butchering Brazil's Covid 19 response.
1153 deaths today with 8000+ critical.
It makes me laugh how mush you mention me – whereas I never give you a second thought.
When asked (on 1 November 2018) who he thought the world's most charismatic leader is, James replied "At the moment .. Jair Bolsonaro".
https://thestandard.org.nz/daily-review-01-11-2018/#comment-1545374
How many times has James moved on since then? More recently (January 2020) our very own leader of the opposition Simon Bridges had reacquired James' favour.
A few days ago these ‘word clouds’ revealed that some NZers consider that another political leader close to home as ‘charismatic‘.
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/05/national-mps-doing-the-numbers-on-simon-bridges-as-newshub-poll-shows-what-kiwis-think-of-him.html
But I suspect that’s not how James rolls. Perhaps Todd Muller's looking pretty charismatic to James "at the moment". Ah James, ever the fair-weather admirer.
look at you – searching back and spending time searching for old comments. Good on you.
In reply to the first item – who is the worlds most charismatic leader – I answered. why for the moment? simply because this is not an absolute. Ardern may be polling the highest "for the moment" dosnt mean she will for all eternity (despite the wishes of some on here).
And yep – I stopped donating, and then I started once I thought he was doing a better job. Still am – every month – wont stop with the new leader.
James, look at you – donating to the National party every month. Good on you.
You're quite right re the ephemeral nature of political popularity – for a recent local example we need look no further than the ‘leadership’ of the Honourable Simon Bridges (endorsed by Sir John Key, no less.) Were I a betting man, I'd put money on PM Ardern out-lasting at least two National party leaders.
One down…
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/105838453/john-key-delivers-stark-warning-on-the-economy-endorses-simon-bridges-as-leader
"But first, the latest update records +2.4 mln more people claiming unemployment benefits in the US, taking the total since early March to more than 38 mln. We may be getting used to such large numbers and this latest week is lower than last week, but this still represents a building social disaster, the scale of which vastly exceeds the Great Depression. In 1932, twelve million Americans were unemployed and one out of every four families no longer had an income. In 2020 the social safety net is helping with the income stress in the short term, but the level of real jobless level is also now approaching 25%. US jobless benefits typically last only 26 weeks"
https://www.interest.co.nz/news/105146/more-huge-us-job-losses-economies-contracting-beijing-clamps-down-hong-kong-china
Over 38 million unemployed in worlds largest economy…and a virus uncontrolled…difficult to see any upside
I don't envy the state governors who seem to be the last stand of sensible politicians in many parts of the US. No money, no food and widespread gun ownership is a recipe for civil unrest. Those billionaire communities maybe don't look so secure anymore and the overseas boltholes are closed
https://twitter.com/nickofnz/status/1263600710299512833
Newshub Breaking News:
Todd's in, Simon's gone.
And hes making it pretty clear, his absolute priority is the economy, no matter how many lives it costs.
Hoots got the boot?
National's Chinese Communist Party funding must have been cut now that Simon's gone.
https://www.twitter.com/matthewhootonnz?lang=en
maybe he's got a new job that's incompatible with his twitter account.
Or he's arch trolling the left.
A wee twist…
https://twitter.com/mtracey/status/1259527119136272384
https://twitter.com/mtracey/status/1263665441437888512
https://twitter.com/mtracey/status/1263617360902131714
The Herald changing its tune? Pointing out New Zealand's shameful inequality of recent decades.
But then Granny reverts to form and tries to link 35 years of neoliberal crap to the current Labour led govt.
I feel like hell has frozen over. Firstly my dad has been saying nice things about Winston Peters… And I agree with them (my dad's a labour/alliance kinda guy)
Then all the older blokes I know who have benefited enormously from neoliberal policies and absolutely hated Labour and adored key and haven't voted Labour since Lange, many of them are praising the PM, talking about nationals lack of compassion and saying they may vote labour or NZ f.
Obviously not a poll or anything but … It's so weird to hear so many people who traditionally spit bike at me for being a lefty even entertain the idea of Labour. Perhaps covid 19 has changed how a lot of people value things. Time will tell.
I hope so Corey.
Kia Ora Newshub.
Paddy I see you won a award. Yes it great that the government took a strong stance against the virus.
Looks like the young ones are enjoying the night life.
That's cool A shortage of wool for because of a The people nitting.
Ka kite Ano.
Kia Ora Te Ao Maori News.
That's correct the health of the Kaumatua comes first our traditions can still be revived later on.
Festpack is postponed till 2024 it looks like a great Pacific people festival. of Arts
Ka kite Ano.
https://youtu.be/qQfetkoGrpU
Kia Ora Newshub
I think it's a great idea dropping council concent for sheds and sleepouts under 30 Square metres.
That's good $600 million being put into regional economy's.
Looks like Kiwis are enjoying the ski fields.
Conserving water is the best way to go so we stop putting huge pressure on our environment look around the world and learn from there mistakes.
Ka kite Ano
Kia Ora Te Ao Maori News.
Some people will be able to build sleepouts to house the whanau with the guidance of a qualified builder.
Tangata Whenua using the Internet to entertain and teach Te reo Ka pai.
To much the tangata living off the grid.
Ka kite Ano
Kia Ora The Am Show.
The government has done a great job in their first term.
Aotearoa is the place a lot of people want to flight to.
Fruit juice will be good for you with no sugar or coffee. Sounds like the new drink is great.
Ka kite Ano
Kia Ora Newshub.
Great that Stuff is going to be owned by its staff.
The magnetic virus testing is great especially with the technology being open sourced and very cost effective open source is the way of the future.
Ka kite Ano
Kia Ora Te Ao Maori News.
That's great church and tangi can have 100 tangata attending .
The Papatuanuku has changed a lot in the last 3 years.?????.
Mana Wahine.
Ka kite Ano.