Open mike 28/09/2023

62 comments on “Open mike 28/09/2023 ”

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1. tsmithfield 1

   28 September 2023 at 7:08 am

   Getting away from politics for a moment, here is a fascinating 10 minute video from Peter Zeihan on why the Chinese economy is in serious trouble.

   The short of it is that the Chinese government locked citizens into keeping their money in China. Hence Chinese citizens have tried to find ways to make money within China, leading to speculative bubbles. The most prominent of these has been housing. Many Chinese citizens have been investing in multiple properties, resulting in a huge speculative bubble.

   According to the Chinese stats guy he sites, there is now more empty housing than there is Chinese to fill it. Along with rapidly declining Chinese demographics, this is a recipe for economic disaster on a scale we likely have not seen before.

   According to Zeihan, the sub-prime crisis was caused by a 3% oversupply of housing, so the scale of future disaster in China will be many multiples higher than that.

   This may lead to the overthrow of the Chinese government, because citizens will naturally be fairly ticked off with their government when that happens.
   • Roy Cartland 1.1

     28 September 2023 at 7:23 am

     He also thinks that the end of China as a functioning nation will be this decade, according to several other of his vids.
     • tsmithfield 1.1.1

       28 September 2023 at 7:27 am

       I guess a massive financial collapse caused by the housing bubble could be the trigger for that.
       • Tricledrown 1.1.1.1

         28 September 2023 at 5:27 pm

         China can print its way out of this crisis just as it has happened before. Being a command and Control economy they can do things free economies can't do like print price freeze shift the economy to where the most money can be made from foreign exchange ie. Cheap car's cheap electric cars.Bigger Navy, Airforce and army.Build more modern infrastructure etc etc in the last gfc China bounced back better than any economist predicted the US had to borrow hundreds of Billions of US $ from China to sure up the US economy.
         • pat 1.1.1.1.1

           28 September 2023 at 5:35 pm

           China can 'print' its way out of this crisis as surely as I could borrow my way out of credit card debt.
   • tsmithfield 1.2

     28 September 2023 at 7:25 am

     Here is an article that confirms the point Zeihan makes.
     • Sanctuary 1.2.1

       28 September 2023 at 8:10 am

       Ah, the perverse incentives of dystopian authoritarianism.
   • Mike the Lefty 1.3

     28 September 2023 at 8:06 am

     I remember when I visited the city of Changchun about seven years ago I saw two huge apartment building projects that were unfinished, and was told that they had been that way for 2-3 years.

     And I suppose there were many more I didn't see.
   • Ad 1.4

     28 September 2023 at 8:28 am

     Zeihan is the catastrophist version of Jared Diamond's "Guns Germs and Steel".

     Very few of his forecasts have come to pass, and the ones that do he rolls out like a flying carpet for his ego.

     The worst and stupidest is that China will cease to exist inside a decade.

     China is doing pretty much the same trajectory of post-War development that Korea, Japan, Malaysia and Vietnam did.

     Zeiham is what you get when a geopgrapher does woo-hoo with a few facts and avoids the entire discipline of development economics.
     • tsmithfield 1.4.1

       28 September 2023 at 8:38 am

       The thing is though, that it isn't only Zeihan pointing to the massive oversupply in the Chinese property market. There are fundamental issues going on that are going to be difficult to avoid, for China, and for the world.

       Kicking the can down the road doesn't work anymore when the road runs out.

       And to be fair to Zeihan, one thing he did get right was predicting the war in Ukraine pretty much to the year back in 2014. e.g:

       https://georgiatoday.ge/geopolitical-analyst-peter-zeihan-on-russias-war-to-the-end/
       • Barfly 1.4.1.1

         28 September 2023 at 9:44 am

         IMO From what I have read the China property market is overdue for a hell of a correction and there will be an enormous amount of financial loss and pain involved – but to predict governmental overthrow and the end of the Chinese state is truly jumping the shark.
         • tsmithfield 1.4.1.1.1

           28 September 2023 at 9:48 am

           Sure. But to be fair to Zeihan, he has given a prediction with a time limit. So, at least we will soon know if he his wrong or right. It is easy to make a prediction for some unspecified time in the future, because lots of things can happen given enough time.

           I think the likely scenario, if it were to happen, would be China breaking up into provences rather than holding together as a coherent whole.
       • Ad 1.4.1.2

         28 September 2023 at 9:54 am

         He's only famous because of that one prediction.

         Plenty of his others haven't worked out.

         China isn't going to break up, isn't going to fall into a hole from lack of babies, and simply isn't facing any crisis as big as say Congress being stormed or the UK leaving the EU.

         China sure ain't a threat to NZ from impending failure.

         Ever notice how Zeihan always concludes that the only successful country in the world is the US?
         • tsmithfield 1.4.1.2.1

           28 September 2023 at 10:57 am

           He's only famous because of that one prediction.

           As I mentioned, to his credit he has given a time-specific prediction about China. So, we should know fairly soon whether that will work out. If China is going to break up, then we should see the signs of that well before then.

           I agree, I thought 10 years was a stretch as well. But, we will see I guess.

           China sure ain't a threat to NZ from impending failure.

           I agree, it likely isn't as much of a threat as say, to Australia. That is because people need to eat whatever happens. So, our produce should be in demand. Whereas, I think Australia it is much more of an issue for Australia. Because, if China stops building stuff, then they won't need all the stuff Australia sends them.
   • mikesh 1.5

     28 September 2023 at 9:13 am

     I don't think it's the fact of an oversupply of houses that is the problem, rather that the the houses are too expensive for most Chinese.
     • tsmithfield 1.5.1

       28 September 2023 at 9:31 am

       If they are too expensive, and the price doesn't adjust, then they will just sit there.

       If you were a banker in a normally functioning economy, would you lend on assets that had no hope in selling if you needed to call up your loan? Hence one of the major problems. People will be reaching their retirements, hoping to sell up their property assets to generate cash to live on. But, if they find they can't sell, or can only sell for a fraction of what they paid, they will not be happy campers.

       In an economy such as China, where the demographics are terminal, then this scenario will play out more and more frequently.
       • mikesh 1.5.1.1

         28 September 2023 at 1:28 pm

         I heard that in China most are renting on 70 year leases. I don't know whether the oversupplied houses were intended for lease or for purchase. However, banks are state owned in China, so writing off any loans won't be as much a problem as it would be in Western countries.
         • Tricledrown 1.5.1.1.1

           28 September 2023 at 5:34 pm

           Or like Trump overinf8 the value of the property and borrow more printed money from the CCP bank.Nothing is a problem in a command and control economy!
2. Mike the Lefty 2

   28 September 2023 at 7:59 am

   I read on stuff that Luxon used the word "actually" 76 times in last night's leaders' second TV debate, which I did not watch.

   When used so often in those contexts, "actually" is another way of trying to give yourself authority – a way of saying "I know what I'm talking about – you don't!"

   John Key used that word a lot too, so perhaps it is a National Party thing and their way of projecting their smug superiority over others.
   • AB 2.1

     28 September 2023 at 8:10 am

     "Actually" is a classic example of the right-wing male's constant and totally unfounded claim to a superior understanding of reality.

     The 'reality' concerning which they claim such superior knowledge, is not reality at all. It's simply the shimmering of their own ideology reflected back at them. Close relatives of “actually” are “the reality is” and “what I’m saying is”. Once you get sensitised to the word “actually”, you can spot a blustering, fat-headed bully with ease.
     • Dennis Frank 2.1.1

       28 September 2023 at 8:56 am

       Reference to collective reality is indeed more asserted than realistic but real cool to see someone actually measuring the citations eh? You know, as if social science research was useful practice?

       Yeah I know, postmodernism disposed of any credibility in the reality concept, but what if psychologists weren't as inept as they seem & there is really a reality drive operating within the psyche? Why else would folks say "Get real!"?

       Actually I only ever write actually so as to channel the inner rightist, inherited from my dad & his dad, which has always amused me. You know, as if rightists could ever get real about anything?

       Anyway this youngster reckons Hipkins got a win and we ought to discern how young voters see things – you know, as if social scientists were competent enough to prove relevance by measuring youngster generational views on politics & report the various bodies of opinion within in the media?

       https://www.stuff.co.nz/entertainment/tv-radio/300978660/leaders-debate-paddy-gower-and-the-chrises-on-the-most-powerful-drug-of-all–politics
     • Tricledrown 2.1.2

       28 September 2023 at 5:16 pm

       Actually he is full of it.
   • PsyclingLeft.Always 2.2

     28 September 2023 at 8:12 am

     Hi, here is a RNZ article about..

     What was said

     If you've watched both debates, you might have noticed there's one word Luxon uses over and over again. In the TVNZ debate last week, he said "actually" 69 times. In last night's slightly shorter format, he said it 76 times.

     https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/498911/hipkins-vs-luxon-the-one-word-christopher-luxon-said-76-times-in-newshub-s-debate

     IMO Chris Hipkins was all over Luxon…several times had him up against the ropes. Luxon looked..lost. Actually : )
   • observer 2.3

     28 September 2023 at 8:32 am

     In Luxon's case, it's not so much a tactic, more that he has a total vocabulary of about 12 words. He is physically painful to listen to (actually).
   • Tricledrown 2.4

     28 September 2023 at 5:41 pm

     He probably has an actuater stuck up his ass everytime his mansplaining mouth opens actually I am lying but the lying bit is conveniently avoided.Luxon is a bully and never answers a question directly but just like a wind up toy he reheats and repeats the distraction or lie.
3. Bearded Git 3

   28 September 2023 at 8:09 am

   Is it only me, but the many "Points of Order" and Richard Harman posts in TS feed all seem to be supporting the Right.
4. pat 4

   28 September 2023 at 8:33 am

   Where's the McGillicuddy Serious Party when you need them?
   • Dennis Frank 4.1

     28 September 2023 at 8:59 am

     Good question, I wonder if any are still around. A reunion of antiquated comedians could be capable of exposing the surrealism abounding in western civilisation…
5. Stephen D 5

   28 September 2023 at 8:34 am

   This might help the situation with rentals in Queenstown.

   https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/sep/27/new-york-airbnb-renters-cities-law-ban-properties?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
   • Ad 5.1

     28 September 2023 at 9:57 am

     OMG that would be a bit of a shock here. Interesting concept and look forward to tracking its progress as a policy.

     Imagine if the NZ state took over the entire rental market with an instrument similar to AIRBnB and then price controlled rent increases for the whole market.

     It would look remarkably similar to the Greens policy.
   • Graeme 5.2

     28 September 2023 at 10:42 am

     Queenstown has tried this and failed. If Edinburgh struggles to reign in Airbnb how are we, a small town, going to deal with them. The cost would destroy the town more and faster than the short term rentals.

     [please correct the error in your e-mail in your next comment, thanks – Incognito]
     • Incognito 5.2.1

       28 September 2023 at 10:57 am

       Mod note
6. weka 6

   28 September 2023 at 10:01 am

   Convo on twitter about National's 1990 election campaign and how they lied, promising to make changes to Labour's neoliberalisation of NZ and then carrying on with it. Anyone got a reference for the campaign material they used pre-election?

   Here's Jim Bolger in 1990, after his landslide win. I wish I had a copy of National's election manifesto to upload. The policies in it are far to the left of those offered even by the Greens today. National ran against but ended up continuing Rogernomics. Extreme became normal.

   https://twitter.com/SikotiHamiltonR/status/1706883456725311599
   • Mike the Lefty 6.1

     28 September 2023 at 10:25 am

     I remember reading about an opposition National MP during the Rogernome government, and I wish I could remember his name and find his comments, saying that National didn't put up much opposition during the second three years because Labour were doing pretty much what National wanted to do anyway.
     • Tricledrown 6.1.1

       28 September 2023 at 11:35 am

       Big business funded Labour $2 for $1 for National once Labour moved back to moderate policy that funding disappeared Roger Douglas bankrupt pig farmer got a job advertising high interest bank cards.
       • Mike the Lefty 6.1.1.1

         28 September 2023 at 3:31 pm

         Appropriate job – given that the Rogernome government gave us home loan interest rates and inflation at 16% plus.

         I remember buying my first home in 1985, my first mortage interest rate was 16% (later going up for a while to 18%) and inflation was around 16%.

         And these people were founders of the ACT Party.

         Worried about what might happen to interest rates if they get back into power again?

         You should be.
     • Tricledrown 6.1.2

       28 September 2023 at 5:52 pm

       Labour took all the backlash it was highjacked by the National Party via Bob Jones .Labour has never recovered until it offers National Party type policy with a few more crumbs off the table for the peasants.Nothing like the

       Norman Kirk and previous Labour Party govts who built enough.houses gave us much cheaper health care , power ,phone education .The Greens are closer to the original Labour movement now.
   • pat 6.2

     28 September 2023 at 1:48 pm

     Am pretty sure that 'manifesto' included the ECA….hardly a 'left' policy
     • Scud 6.2.1

       28 September 2023 at 2:32 pm

       From memory, it didn't at the time. The Bastards used the so-called BNZ Bank collapse for it's massive jump to the right & it was all downhill after that.
       • pat 6.2.1.1

         28 September 2023 at 3:32 pm

         https://ourarchive.otago.ac.nz/bitstream/handle/10523/9116/HealSarah1994MA.pdf?sequence=2&isAllowed=y

         page 89

         "During the course of 1990 it became apparent that the National Party's stance on industrial relations was closely related to the arguments advanced by the New Zealand Business Roundtable and the Employers Federation regarding labour market reform.I? It is significant that the National Party chose to announce its labour relations policy at an Employers Federation conference in Auckland on the 8th May. Jim Bolger pledged the reintroduction of voluntary unionism and to make bargaining more flexible by breaking the stranglehold that entrenched union executives currently have on the negotiating process in too many sectors of industry".
7. Ad 7

   28 September 2023 at 10:13 am

   Great to see Hipkins showing some attack last night.
   • Anne 7.1

     28 September 2023 at 10:22 am

     Not sure what the thinking might be, but it felt to me like he had been withholding his ammunition and debating skills for the last two plus weeks. He did make noises to that effect in a brief post-debate interview before he left the studio.
8. Peter 8

   28 September 2023 at 10:25 am

   A gathering in the middle of Wellington and the weather’s let me down badly.
9. Barfly 9

   28 September 2023 at 11:03 am

   All IMO – Amongst the horror and evil of war one periodically finds the inspirational, the amusing and the mind-boggling

   This bloke I find to be an inspiration – a Ukranian veteran from Soviet Afghanistan War – he seems to be older than Methusalah (as in about my age) – answering the call to serve his country and possibly even driving the same model IFV he used to. He also appears to have well mastered the art of 'zero f***s given'.

   https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/16r9mf8/ukrainian_veteran_from_the_soviet_afghanistan_war/

   This is humor a much younger Ukranian 'asset' who is also rocking a big 'zero f***s given vibe'

   https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/16q9861/photo_of_the_day_a_cat_named_patron_serving_in/

   This clip – well it's the mind-boggling as in wtf ? How the hell? But it's just a bloke getting some firewood while wearing slip-ons

   https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/16qwdbt/ok_this_guy_is_a_unit/

   And last well I find this heart warming

   https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/16q139y/we_will_rock_you/

   Slava Ukraine!
10. Tricledrown 10

    28 September 2023 at 11:30 am

    Winston will be a huge Thorn in Nationals side as there biggest policy tax cuts for the well off won't go ahead on current poling.Winston will dine out on this till the election.
    • Barfly 10.1

      28 September 2023 at 11:42 am

      Winston also has the ability to make a deal with whomever he wants so easily

      MSM "But you said no deal with the Labour Party"

      Winston "Yes I did, but unfortunately it seems that the National Party can't count so I have revised my position"

      No I don't expect this but I do expect entertainment if Winston is the KingMaker
      • Mike the Lefty 10.1.1

        28 September 2023 at 11:53 am

        Judging by the subtle change in attitudes on both sides, I wouldn't be totally surprised if it was subsequently discovered Winston already had made a secret deal with Luxon.
        • Incognito 10.1.1.1

          28 September 2023 at 12:06 pm

          Have they been spotted drinking a cup of tea together?

          This election campaign is a show of charades – it’s good for MSM and polling companies but hardly serves the people/voters.
          • Mike the Lefty 10.1.1.1.1

            28 September 2023 at 1:28 pm

            Have to admit that Winston has a habit of doing the unexpected. In 1996, the first MMP election, he had been roundly abusing National all through the campaign and been relatively cordial to Labour, and then against most expectations he went with National. Helen Clark accused National of "going belly up".

            Cut to 2017 and when the majority of pundits thought he would go with National he cuts a deal with Labour, to the shock and disbelief of National who since the election had been crowing like Peter Pan saying how clever they were.

            And now he may well be in the same situation again, but this time we have the added element of ACT on the right who are sure to want a share of the spoils.
            • Incognito 10.1.1.1.1.1

              28 September 2023 at 3:22 pm

              Have to admit that Winston has a habit of doing the unexpected.

              I disagree and don’t buy into the Winston myth and associated personality cult unlike MSM and quite possibly >5% of voters.

              I didn’t buy into the John Key myth either nor was I blown away by Jacinda Ardern’s public image.

              For me, a strong policy platform based on reliable assumptions is more influential than party figureheads; people come and go, but core principles, values, and associated policy platforms endure.
              • Ad …

                28 September 2023 at 3:25 pm

                Best of luck with that.
                • Incognito …

                  28 September 2023 at 3:38 pm

                  With what?

                  Whatever “that” is, it has nothing to do with luck.
          • Drowsy M. Kram 10.1.1.1.2

            28 September 2023 at 1:44 pm

            …hardly serves the people/voters.

            Big donors are people/voters too – charlatans on parade – apols for repetition.

            Why should Kiwis take Willis and Luxon at their word, when they've clearly been caught out trying to scam the voters?

            Fiscal Holes in The National Party's Foreign Buyers Policy w/ Nick Goodall: September 25, 2023
            "Our best estimate was that they could probably get about $213 million per year, so pretty well short of that $740…"
            …
            Interviewer – Do we have any idea how the National party has come to such a large number, and what information do we have about their budgeting calculations?

            Foreign Buyers Tax: A Mismatch Between Expectations and Reality
            The Importance of Transparent Policymaking
            While the shortfall in the proposed tax revenue may not significantly impact the government deficits, it serves as a testament to the politicians’ approach to policy making and their transparency in responding to criticism. Even though the National party, being an opposition party, may not have the same resources as the Government to form its policy, critics argue that it should invest in thorough analysis using the donations it receives.

            Hmm – donations the Nats receive. Might relaxing the ban on foreigners buying Kiwi homes be a way of rewarding some big donors?

            Pulling tax from one part of teetering Jenga tower to place it in another [updated 20 Sept 2023]
            It’s bleak, against this backdrop, to see so much of this year’s election debate consumed by a policy proposed by the National Party that depends, again, on boosting the property sector.

            Some big investment property owners (one name in particular springs to mind) will be salivating at the prospect of a ‘correction’ in the property market, whereas some pundits reckon a correction is still in progress.

            Imho, NAct are aiming to correct the correction.

            https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/real-estate/131976700/property-market-correction-not-over-yet
11. rod 11

    28 September 2023 at 4:28 pm

    Wake up all you voters before it's too late. You are being scammed by the Nats and their mates in the right wing Media
12. Vivie 12

    28 September 2023 at 5:34 pm

    National MPs seem to have stopped using the ludicrous term "the squeezed middle", with reference to their tax cuts policy, as it excludes people in the most need. Christopher Luxon and Nicola Willis now claim that "low and middle income earners" will benefit from their tax plan. This is a typical National strategy of lying by omission.

    Economists analysing National's non-resident buyers' 15% tax from houses over two million dollars have found this tax would likely raise only $210 million a year, rather than $740 million a year as National claims. https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/election-2023/497974/economists-analysis-rubbishes-national-s-foreign-buyers-tax-numbers This amount would be the largest source of revenue to fund their tax cuts. National have repeatedly refused to release their modelling of their tax plan. If it is feasible and the calculations support National's tax cut amounts, why not release the plan?

    According to National's figures, low income earners would receive $10 per week in tax cuts. https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300960677/election-2023-national-party-releases-full-146b-tax-plan

    National advises that a worker on the median income would receive $50.00 per fortnight. NZ's median income is about $61,000.00. Therefore, half of NZ workers earn below this amount and would receive less than $25.00 per week in tax cuts. National's tax plan would in fact make many families worse off through cuts to early childhood education funding, public transport subsidies and public services, and by reinstating pharmacy prescription charges. Also, allowing non-residents to buy NZ homes will push up house prices and rental costs. National's tax plan would disproportionately benefit high earners, as they would receive the highest tax cuts.

    National are relying on evasive, dishonest slogans to try to maintain their position in the polls, without providing details of what public services they will cut to fund their tax plan. The media should repeatedly hold National to account, to be open and honest, so voters are fully aware of their options.
    • SPC 12.1

      28 September 2023 at 6:56 pm

      Yup the IETC adjustment provides $10 a week (to the bottom half), and the tax bracket adjustments around the median and above (to $120,000) takes the total to $25 (an extra $15).

      That is all for the 3 years.

      Note a $1 an hour wage increase pa – MW is $40 a week before tax. And a similar impact would occur from the FPA industry awards. Each and every year.

      Labour provides more help to afford rent increases and the cost of mortgages.

      Greens with their 3% rent pa cap add an important extra one would hope became coalition policy.
    • Anne 12.2

      28 September 2023 at 6:59 pm

      Christopher Luxon and Nicola Willis now claim that "low and middle income earners" will benefit from their tax plan.

      The gall of such a statement is gob-smacking. Middle income earners stand to gain some $20 to $25 per week but the lowest income workers will be lucky if they get much more than $5 per week and they are the ones so desperately in need of help.

      I honestly don't know how anyone with a grain of decency could make such a claim based on National's tax-cut scheme. It is preposterous.
      • Mike the Lefty 12.2.1

        28 September 2023 at 8:03 pm

        Lowest earners WILL benefit, just not very much. A half block of cheese when its on special.

        The kind of word mincing that National has specialised in from its creation.
        • Anne 12.2.1.1

          28 September 2023 at 9:12 pm

          The thing that gets me the most is: those on very high incomes potentially could benefit by up to $250 per week. BUT… if you dare mention it you are accused of envy politics – as if it is a nasty disease. Most people don't want to be rich. They just want to own a roof over their head and be able to eat well, pay their bills and once a year have a holiday somewhere.
    • Drowsy M. Kram 12.3

      28 September 2023 at 7:00 pm

      Thanks for that clear analysis of Nat's Siren song – it's not too late to avoid the rocks.

      https://vote.nz/enrolling/enrol-or-update/enrol-or-update-online/

      If you don’t have regular access to the internet, or the right identification details (New Zealand driver licence, New Zealand passport or RealMe ID) to accompany an online enrolment, you can still enrol in other ways.

      You can enrol or update your details by filling in an enrolment form. Call 0800 36 76 56 or freetext your name and address to 3676 to have one sent to you. You can pick up an enrolment form at a Citizen’s Advice Bureau, most public libraries, and Electoral Commission offices.
13. newsense 13

    28 September 2023 at 10:41 pm

    Always get into these threads late at night unfortunately:

    but where is the anger at some of these morally repugnant policies, backed by lying former merchants of death and worse.

    Why is it left to Hayden Donnell to be saying this in the Spinoff:

    https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/27-09-2023/is-nationals-biggest-issue-beneficiaries

    As I said before on housing NOW middle New Zealand families can have a pet or a grandparent for their children, but not both.

    National plans to make it much, much worse for people renting. It plans to make it worse for the unemployed. It plans, through offering tax relief at a higher bracket, to make the poorest worse off.

    Winston Peters is now positioning himself to the left of the Labour Party in economic policy, and somehow given his candidates, with more credibility as he seems to have a much greater likely influence on the next government. Jesus wept.

    The media like to make out there’s not much difference. For the poorest it will be a catastrophe.
    • Anne 13.1

      28 September 2023 at 11:38 pm

      Coalition of Carnage should be the catch-cry from Labour, the Greens and Te Pati Maori because that is exactly what will happen.

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