Our Great De-Leveraging
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5:05 pm, June 4th, 2023 - 13 comments
Categories: Debt, debt / deficit, economy, housing -
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This is how you get off heroin.
Debt is the most destructive and addictive form of economic behaviour we have in New Zealand. For everyone who lives in a house whether landlord or straight homeowner you feel the bank slipping that good leveraged needle of joy from fear back into eyes-rolled-back blissful security.
For the majority of New Zealanders mortgage debt is a promise to yourself and your family that, decades into your future, somehow, you’re going to get out of this hellhole and live free. Whatever free means. Your land, your apartment, your property. But there is simply no way you can get to that pure free joyous plane unless you take the debt and let it tap your blood.
This post won’t talk too much about specific policies. It’s going to focus on the pain of mortgage debt addiction.
Through 2021 our job incomes were secured by the government, so New Zealand went into a most almighty mortgage debt binge. We chose to secure our future with the only reliable asset class we had: property ownership through mortgages.
Despite the COVID-19 epidemic, house prices here surged through 2020 and 2021: about 20% in 2020 and another 15% in 2021.
Apparently we spent over $14 billion on coastal property alone in one year.
Those who could reach for a leveraged rental went for the lower end of the price range, out to the poorer periphery for multi-homeowners in Gisborne (where they were 83% of sales), Taharoa in Waikato (82% of sales), Tokomaru Bay (78% of sales), Okura Buch in Auckland (74%) and Te Kaha (73%). I’ve got a cousin who bought two little rentals in Westport. Westport!
The Reserve Bank had its base rate around 2% and your bank could tie the rubber tube around your forearm and insert the needle at around 3.5% and man it would kick you back for a while, and let you dream big and eyeball wide.
At the same time the government underwrote our mortgages if we got into any trouble, with a mortgage payment deferral scheme that at peak had about 80,000 mortgages on deferral: about 7% of all of New Zealand’s mortgages. That’s the government putting a pillow under your head while you glide through the high.
The question is only, for every addict, how long can you hold the high. FInally, here comes the answer.
As early as March 2022 Statistics New Zealand reported that household debt had gone up 29%.
And now as the banks central and Australasia start to limit the heroin supply they will give you, from half a kilo to an ounce a week, the trends are getting worrying.
Centrix Credit Bureau says the number of missed mortgage payments grew for the seventh consecutive month in February 2023. Overall, 1.29% of mortgages (18,900) were in arrears, up almost a quarter year-on-year. Centrix say this could be attributed to people rolling off fixed home loans and being unable to service higher interest rates.
Unsecured personal loans are up 7.8% in February this year and Buy Now Pay Later arrears are near an all time high. Consumer arrears are the highest they have been since 2019.
So many institutions have warned us that we are in a dangerous level of mortgage debt dependency and one day we’re going to feel a world of pain. Oh but the pain is so close to pleasure and we pay more and we use more.
We are only at about 6-8.5% for bank mortgage rates but yes this is going to go to over 9%. That heroin fix just gets more and more expensive to buy every time.
If you want to see the scale of pain that deleveraging out of real estate debt looks like, turn your eyes to China. Like New Zealand they have been warned for a decade that a real estate debt boom will leave scars all the way up your arm.
Instead of being a growth driver, the whole real estate deal was a massive downer cycle.
China is now in a world of deleveraging pain.
And China is telling us that deleveraging out of real estate mortgage addiction is very, very, very very hard to do. Once you do crack, you never go back.
By March this year New Zealand’s median sale price was down 13.9% on a year previously. In Wellington it was down 20.6% and Auckland’s was down 15.2%. Pain.
We’re going to hear many, many more very painful stories like we did in 2009 of people just walking out and telling the banks where to shove it. Or couples breaking up under the strain. Of choosing to eat out of a can rather than give up on their one shot at getting up and getting out.
Most analysts bet average sale value prices will come down to about 2019 levels. And of course after Cyclone Gabrielle all that coastal rental property in Gisborne, southern Bay of Plenty, and peripheral Auckland ain’t going to sell for a very, very long time. It ain’t karma it’s pure fate and that’s a dirty mattress to sweat on.
No, there is no policy cure for this. Some want to force even faster withdrawal with higher taxes on property or even on untenanted property, as proposed in Queensland.
Best of luck to the local council or party that tries that as a policy here.
Other parties simply want to tax property wealth, with no thought to where else that money should go. Heroic policy without consequence is a pretty common problem on the left.
We don’t yet know if mortgage defaults and forced bank sales will follow suit yet. But they usually do. Suicide. Marriage breakups. Kids with no social mobility. Permanent social damage. But in a timespan about as fast as the 1988 sharemarket crash.
There will be no shift from real estate to other asset classes (such as they are here), because most are now just trying to hang on to what they have and ride it out for as long as they can. Also, mortgage heroin is what our banks deal, so that is the stuff we use.
Mortgages are New Zealand’s very high grade heroin and we are being forced to come down off a most spectacular high into a rage-inducing forced withdrawal.
We’re only just starting the shakes.
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- Release: Environmental protection vital, not ‘onerous’The Government’s Fast Track Approvals Bill will give projects such as new coal mines a ‘get out of jail free’ card to wreak havoc on the environment, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins said today. ...6 days ago
- Ferris – Three Strikes targets those ‘too brown to be white’The government's decision to reintroduce Three Strikes is a destructive and ineffective piece of law-making that will only exacerbate an inherently biased and racist criminal justice system, said Te Pāti Māori Justice Spokesperson, Tākuta Ferris, today. During the time Three Strikes was in place in Aotearoa, Māori and Pasifika received ...6 days ago
- Release: Govt cuts doctors and nurses in hiring freezeCuts to frontline hospital staff are not only a broken election promise, it shows the reckless tax cuts have well and truly hit the frontline of the health system, says Labour Health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall. ...1 week ago
- Fast-track submissions period must be extendedThe Green Party has joined the call for public submissions on the fast-track legislation to be extended after the Ombudsman forced the Government to release the list of organisations invited to apply just hours before submissions close. ...1 week ago
- Release: Progress on climate will be undone by GovtNew Zealand’s good work at reducing climate emissions for three years in a row will be undone by the National government’s lack of ambition and scrapping programmes that were making a difference, Labour Party climate spokesperson Megan Woods said today. ...1 week ago
- Release: Dark day for Kiwi kids as a third of Govt cuts affect themNews that 1000 jobs at the Ministry of Education and Oranga Tamariki could go is devastating for future generations of New Zealanders. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Alarm as Government signals further blow to school lunchesMore essential jobs could be on the chopping block, this time Ministry of Education staff on the school lunches team are set to find out whether they're in line to lose their jobs. ...2 weeks ago
- Oranga Tamariki cuts commit tamariki to state abuseTe Pāti Māori is disgusted at the confirmation that hundreds are set to lose their jobs at Oranga Tamariki, and the disestablishment of the Treaty Response Unit. “This act of absolute carelessness and out of touch decision making is committing tamariki to state abuse.” Said Te Pāti Māori Oranga Tamariki ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Quick, submit – stop Govt’s dodgy approvals billThe Government is trying to bring in a law that will allow Ministers to cut corners and kill off native species, Labour environment spokesperson Rachel Brooking said. ...2 weeks ago
- Government throws coal on the climate crisis fireThe Government’s policy announced today to ease consenting for coal mining will have a lasting impact across generations. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Public transport costs to double as National looks at unaffordable roading project insteadCancelling urgently needed new Cook Strait ferries and hiking the cost of public transport for many Kiwis so that National can announce the prospect of another tunnel for Wellington is not making good choices, Labour Transport Spokesperson Tangi Utikere said. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Cost of living in Auckland still not a priorityA laundry list of additional costs for Tāmaki Makarau Auckland shows the Minister for the city is not delivering for the people who live there, says Labour Auckland Issues spokesperson Shanan Halbert. ...2 weeks ago
- Te Pāti Māori to visit Queensland to strengthen ties with Māori in AustraliaTe Pāti Māori co-leader Rawiri Waititi, and Mema Paremata mō Tāmaki-Makaurau, Takutai Tarsh Kemp, will travel to the Gold Coast to strengthen ties with Māori in Australia next week (15-21 April). The visit, in the lead-up to the 9th Australian National Kapa haka Festival, will be an opportunity for both ...2 weeks ago
- Greens look to fast-track submissions on harmful lawThe Green Party has today launched a step-by-step guide to help New Zealanders make their voice heard on the Government’s democracy dodging and anti-environment fast track legislation. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Govt should stop making people’s lives harder and build more homesThe National Government’s proposed changes to the Residential Tenancies Act will mean tenants can be turfed from their homes by landlords with little notice, Labour housing spokesperson Kieran McAnulty said. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Melissa Lee missing in action on mediaThe action Melissa Lee promised to protect democracy and the media sector is missing, Media and Communications spokesperson Willie Jackson said. ...2 weeks ago
- Landlord Government leaves little hope for rentersThe Government’s announcement on tenancy rules prove that it does not care about renters. ...2 weeks ago
- Opportunity to build a more sustainable economyGreen Party co-leader Marama Davidson is calling on all parties to support a common-sense change that’s great for the planet and great for consumers after her member’s bill was drawn from the ballot today. ...2 weeks ago
- Significant step forward in fixing cruel and unjust pastA significant milestone has been reached in the fight to strike an anti-Pasifika and unfair law from the country’s books after Teanau Tuiono’s members’ bill passed its first reading. ...3 weeks ago
- Missed opportunity but NZ will surely one day recognise the right to a sustainable environmentNew Zealand has today missed the opportunity to uphold the right to a clean, healthy, and sustainable environment, says James Shaw after his member’s bill was voted down in its first reading. ...3 weeks ago
- Release: Don’t cut our lunches – clear message sent to GovernmentTens of thousands of people are demanding the Government commits to fully funding free and healthy school lunches. ...3 weeks ago
- Release: Govt makes U-turn on Suicide Prevention OfficeLabour welcomes the Government’s U-turn on the closure of the Suicide Prevention Office, says Labour Mental Health spokesperson Ingrid Leary. ...3 weeks ago
- CCC issues warning over further climate delayToday’s advice from the Climate Change Commission paints a sobering reality of the challenge we face in combating climate change, especially in light of recent Government policy announcements. ...3 weeks ago
- Luxon targets lame and lousy example of leadershipIf talk is cheap, Chris Luxon’s “targets” are bankrupt. ...3 weeks ago
- Luxon targets are lousy example of leadershipIf talk is cheap, Chris Luxon’s “targets” are bankrupt. ...3 weeks ago
- Pharmac Chair appointed
Hon Paula Bennett has been appointed as member and chair of the Pharmac board, Associate Health Minister David Seymour announced today. "Pharmac is a critical part of New Zealand's health system and plays a significant role in ensuring that Kiwis have the best possible access to medicines,” says Mr Seymour. ...7 hours ago - Taking action on Fetal Alcohol Spectrum DisorderHundreds of New Zealand families affected by Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorder (FASD) will benefit from a new Government focus on prevention and treatment, says Health Minister Dr Shane Reti. “We know FASD is a leading cause of preventable intellectual and neurodevelopmental disability in New Zealand,” Dr Reti says. “Every day, ...1 day ago
- New sports complex opens in KaikoheRegional Development Minister Shane Jones today attended the official opening of Kaikohe’s new $14.7 million sports complex. “The completion of the Kaikohe Multi Sports Complex is a fantastic achievement for the Far North,” Mr Jones says. “This facility not only fulfils a long-held dream for local athletes, but also creates ...1 day ago
- Diplomacy needed more than everForeign Minister Winston Peters’ engagements in Türkiye this week underlined the importance of diplomacy to meet growing global challenges. “Returning to the Gallipoli Peninsula to represent New Zealand at Anzac commemorations was a sombre reminder of the critical importance of diplomacy for de-escalating conflicts and easing tensions,” Mr Peters ...1 day ago
- Anzac Commemorative Address, Buttes New British Cemetery BelgiumAmbassador Millar, Burgemeester, Vandepitte, Excellencies, military representatives, distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen – good morning and welcome to this sacred Anzac Day dawn service. It is an honour to be here on behalf of the Government and people of New Zealand at Buttes New British Cemetery, Polygon Wood – a deeply ...2 days ago
- Anzac Commemorative Address – NZ National Service, Chunuk BairDistinguished guests - It is an honour to return once again to this site which, as the resting place for so many of our war-dead, has become a sacred place for generations of New Zealanders. Our presence here and at the other special spaces of Gallipoli is made ...3 days ago
- Anzac Commemorative Address – Dawn Service, Gallipoli, TürkiyeMai ia tawhiti pamamao, te moana nui a Kiwa, kua tae whakaiti mai matou, ki to koutou papa whenua. No koutou te tapuwae, no matou te tapuwae, kua honoa pumautia. Ko nga toa kua hinga nei, o te Waipounamu, o te Ika a Maui, he okioki tahi me o ...3 days ago
- PM announces changes to portfoliosPaul Goldsmith will take on responsibility for the Media and Communications portfolio, while Louise Upston will pick up the Disability Issues portfolio, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon announced today. “Our Government is relentlessly focused on getting New Zealand back on track. As issues change in prominence, I plan to adjust Ministerial ...4 days ago
- New catch limits for unique fishery areasRecreational catch limits will be reduced in areas of Fiordland and the Chatham Islands to help keep those fisheries healthy and sustainable, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. The lower recreational daily catch limits for a range of finfish and shellfish species caught in the Fiordland Marine Area and ...4 days ago
- Minister welcomes hydrogen milestoneEnergy Minister Simeon Brown has welcomed an important milestone in New Zealand’s hydrogen future, with the opening of the country’s first network of hydrogen refuelling stations in Wiri. “I want to congratulate the team at Hiringa Energy and its partners K one W one (K1W1), Mitsui & Co New Zealand ...5 days ago
- Urgent changes to system through first RMA Amendment BillThe coalition Government is delivering on its commitment to improve resource management laws and give greater certainty to consent applicants, with a Bill to amend the Resource Management Act (RMA) expected to be introduced to Parliament next month. RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop has today outlined the first RMA Amendment ...5 days ago
- Overseas decommissioning models consideredOverseas models for regulating the oil and gas sector, including their decommissioning regimes, are being carefully scrutinised as a potential template for New Zealand’s own sector, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. The Coalition Government is focused on rebuilding investor confidence in New Zealand’s energy sector as it looks to strengthen ...5 days ago
- Release of North Island Severe Weather Event InquiryEmergency Management and Recovery Minister Mark Mitchell has today released the Report of the Government Inquiry into the response to the North Island Severe Weather Events. “The report shows that New Zealand’s emergency management system is not fit-for-purpose and there are some significant gaps we need to address,” Mr Mitchell ...5 days ago
- Justice Minister to attend Human Rights CouncilJustice Minister Paul Goldsmith is today travelling to Europe where he’ll update the United Nations Human Rights Council on the Government’s work to restore law and order. “Attending the Universal Periodic Review in Geneva provides us with an opportunity to present New Zealand’s human rights progress, priorities, and challenges, while ...6 days ago
- Patterson reopens world’s largest wool scouring facilityAssociate Agriculture Minister, Mark Patterson, formally reopened the world’s largest wool processing facility today in Awatoto, Napier, following a $50 million rebuild and refurbishment project. “The reopening of this facility will significantly lift the economic opportunities available to New Zealand’s wool sector, which already accounts for 20 per cent of ...6 days ago
- Speech to the Southland Otago Regional Engineering Collective Summit, 18 April 2024Hon Andrew Bayly, Minister for Small Business and Manufacturing At the Southland Otago Regional Engineering Collective (SOREC) Summit, 18 April, Dunedin Ngā mihi nui, Ko Andrew Bayly aho, Ko Whanganui aho Good Afternoon and thank you for inviting me to open your summit today. I am delighted ...6 days ago
- Government to introduce revised Three Strikes lawThe Government is delivering on its commitment to bring back the Three Strikes legislation, Associate Justice Minister Nicole McKee announced today. “Our Government is committed to restoring law and order and enforcing appropriate consequences on criminals. We are making it clear that repeat serious violent or sexual offending is not ...6 days ago
- New diplomatic appointmentsForeign Minister Winston Peters has today announced four new diplomatic appointments for New Zealand’s overseas missions. “Our diplomats have a vital role in maintaining and protecting New Zealand’s interests around the world,” Mr Peters says. “I am pleased to announce the appointment of these senior diplomats from the ...6 days ago
- Humanitarian support for Ethiopia and SomaliaNew Zealand is contributing NZ$7 million to support communities affected by severe food insecurity and other urgent humanitarian needs in Ethiopia and Somalia, Foreign Minister Rt Hon Winston Peters announced today. “Over 21 million people are in need of humanitarian assistance across Ethiopia, with a further 6.9 million people ...6 days ago
- Arts Minister congratulates Mataaho CollectiveMinister for Arts, Culture and Heritage Paul Goldsmith is congratulating Mataaho Collective for winning the Golden Lion for best participant in the main exhibition at the Venice Biennale. "Congratulations to the Mataaho Collective for winning one of the world's most prestigious art prizes at the Venice Biennale. “It is good ...1 week ago
- Supporting better financial outcomes for KiwisThe Government is reforming financial services to improve access to home loans and other lending, and strengthen customer protections, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly and Housing Minister Chris Bishop announced today. “Our coalition Government is committed to rebuilding the economy and making life simpler by cutting red tape. We are ...1 week ago
- Trade relationship with China remains strong“China remains a strong commercial opportunity for Kiwi exporters as Chinese businesses and consumers continue to value our high-quality safe produce,” Trade and Agriculture Minister Todd McClay says. Mr McClay has returned to New Zealand following visits to Beijing, Harbin and Shanghai where he met ministers, governors and mayors and engaged in trade and agricultural events with the New ...1 week ago
- PM’s South East Asia mission does the businessPrime Minister Christopher Luxon has completed a successful trip to Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines, deepening relationships and capitalising on opportunities. Mr Luxon was accompanied by a business delegation and says the choice of countries represents the priority the New Zealand Government places on South East Asia, and our relationships in ...1 week ago
- $41m to support clean energy in South East AsiaNew Zealand is demonstrating its commitment to reducing global greenhouse emissions, and supporting clean energy transition in South East Asia, through a contribution of NZ$41 million (US$25 million) in climate finance to the Asian Development Bank (ADB)-led Energy Transition Mechanism (ETM). Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Climate Change Minister Simon Watts announced ...1 week ago
- Minister releases Fast-track stakeholder listThe Government is today releasing a list of organisations who received letters about the Fast-track applications process, says RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop. “Recently Ministers and agencies have received a series of OIA requests for a list of organisations to whom I wrote with information on applying to have a ...1 week ago
- Judicial appointments announcedAttorney-General Judith Collins today announced the appointment of Wellington Barrister David Jonathan Boldt as a Judge of the High Court, and the Honourable Justice Matthew Palmer as a Judge of the Court of Appeal. Justice Boldt graduated with an LLB from Victoria University of Wellington in 1990, and also holds ...1 week ago
- Education Minister heads to major teaching summit in SingaporeEducation Minister Erica Stanford will lead the New Zealand delegation at the 2024 International Summit on the Teaching Profession (ISTP) held in Singapore. The delegation includes representatives from the Post Primary Teachers’ Association (PPTA) Te Wehengarua and the New Zealand Educational Institute (NZEI) Te Riu Roa. The summit is co-hosted ...1 week ago
- Value of stopbank project proven during cycloneA stopbank upgrade project in Tairawhiti partly funded by the Government has increased flood resilience for around 7000ha of residential and horticultural land so far, Regional Development Minister Shane Jones says. Mr Jones today attended a dawn service in Gisborne to mark the end of the first stage of the ...1 week ago
- Anzac commemorations, Türkiye relationship focus of visitForeign Affairs Minister Winston Peters will represent the Government at Anzac Day commemorations on the Gallipoli Peninsula next week and engage with senior representatives of the Turkish government in Istanbul. “The Gallipoli campaign is a defining event in our history. It will be a privilege to share the occasion ...1 week ago
- Minister to Europe for OECD meeting, Anzac DayScience, Innovation and Technology and Defence Minister Judith Collins will next week attend the OECD Science and Technology Ministerial conference in Paris and Anzac Day commemorations in Belgium. “Science, innovation and technology have a major role to play in rebuilding our economy and achieving better health, environmental and social outcomes ...1 week ago
- Comprehensive Partnership the goal for NZ and the PhilippinesPrime Minister Christopher Luxon held a bilateral meeting today with the President of the Philippines, Ferdinand Marcos Jr. The Prime Minister was accompanied by MP Paulo Garcia, the first Filipino to be elected to a legislature outside the Philippines. During today’s meeting, Prime Minister Luxon and President Marcos Jr discussed opportunities to ...1 week ago
- Government commits $20m to Westport flood protectionThe Government has announced that $20 million in funding will be made available to Westport to fund much needed flood protection around the town. This measure will significantly improve the resilience of the community, says Local Government Minister Simeon Brown. “The Westport community has already been allocated almost $3 million ...1 week ago
- Taupō takes pole positionThe Government is proud to support the first ever Repco Supercars Championship event in Taupō as up to 70,000 motorsport fans attend the Taupō International Motorsport Park this weekend, says Economic Development Minister Melissa Lee. “Anticipation for the ITM Taupō Super400 is huge, with tickets and accommodation selling out weeks ...1 week ago
- Cost of living support for low-income homeownersLocal Government Minister Simeon Brown has announced an increase to the Rates Rebate Scheme, putting money back into the pockets of low-income homeowners. “The coalition Government is committed to bringing down the cost of living for New Zealanders. That includes targeted support for those Kiwis who are doing things tough, such ...1 week ago
- Government backing mussel spat projectThe Coalition Government is investing in a project to boost survival rates of New Zealand mussels and grow the industry, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones has announced. “This project seeks to increase the resilience of our mussels and significantly boost the sector’s productivity,” Mr Jones says. “The project - ...1 week ago
- Government focused on getting people into workBenefit figures released today underscore the importance of the Government’s plan to rebuild the economy and have 50,000 fewer people on Jobseeker Support, Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston says. “Benefit numbers are still significantly higher than when National was last in government, when there was about 70,000 fewer ...1 week ago
- Clean energy key driver to reducing emissionsThe Government’s commitment to doubling New Zealand’s renewable energy capacity is backed by new data showing that clean energy has helped the country reach its lowest annual gross emissions since 1999, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts says. New Zealand’s latest Greenhouse Gas Inventory (1990-2022) published today, shows gross emissions fell ...1 week ago
- Earthquake-prone buildings review brought forwardThe Government is bringing the earthquake-prone building review forward, with work to start immediately, and extending the deadline for remediations by four years, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “Our Government is focused on rebuilding the economy. A key part of our plan is to cut red tape that ...1 week ago
- Thailand and NZ to agree to Strategic PartnershipPrime Minister Christopher Luxon and his Thai counterpart, Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, have today agreed that New Zealand and the Kingdom of Thailand will upgrade the bilateral relationship to a Strategic Partnership by 2026. “New Zealand and Thailand have a lot to offer each other. We have a strong mutual desire to build ...2 weeks ago
- Government consults on extending coastal permits for portsRMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop and Transport Minister Simeon Brown have today announced the Coalition Government’s intention to extend port coastal permits for a further 20 years, providing port operators with certainty to continue their operations. “The introduction of the Resource Management Act in 1991 required ports to obtain coastal ...2 weeks ago
- Green co-leader James Shaw came 'very close' to resigning as minister under Labour govt
The former minister reveals he "ended up storming out" of a Cabinet meeting over disagreements on climate change and biodiversity. ...3 hours ago - NZCTU Welcomes Corporate Manslaughter Bill Introduction
NZCTU President Richard Wagstaff is calling on all political parties to support the new Member’s Bill from Labour’s workplace relations and safety spokesperson Camilla Belich MP that would ensure negligent companies are held accountable when their employees ...3 hours ago - US election forecaster with near-perfect track record not ready call 2024 just yetA historian with an uncanny track record of predicting US election winners tells RNZ's Sunday Morning that President Biden looks to be on track for another term, but things could still go very wrong for him. ...3 hours ago
- Fish and quiz: The many uses of written parliamentary questionsMinisters have to answer thousands of written questions each year - but how are they used, and for what end? ...4 hours ago
- Former Deputy PM Paula Bennett appointed Pharmac board chairThe former National MP "brings a wealth of experience" to the role, David Seymour says. ...6 hours ago
- Inside the home of New Zealand’s greatest crime writer
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- An Ode to .. King Luxon
Performance Review King Luxon sat behind His massive polished oak desk. It is Performance Review time. There is a knock on the door. “Enter!” says the King. In steps Minister of Disabilities and Carer Pedicures, Penny Simmonds. “I can explain everything …” she begins. “Fine,” says King Luxon, pressing the ...9 hours ago - In the studio with artist power couple Claudia Kogachi and Josephine JelicichThe pair opened their first fully collaborative exhibition, Nina for Flowers, last Saturday. Gabi Lardies visited their studio to find out who Nina is and what working together was like. ‘It didn’t start out like, ‘This is a show about Nina,’” says Josephine Jelicich, gripping a thermos of peppermint tea. ...12 hours ago
- An ode to the muesli bar, a national treasureThank you, Dr Maximilian Oskar Bircher-Benner, for your brilliant invention. I’m another mid-20s Kiwi who had an OE last year. I hopped on my bicycle where France meets the Atlantic and cycled east. I pedalled through the Loire Valley, down rivers lined with willows and ancient wisteria-draped chateaus. I relished ...12 hours ago
- Government urged to hit the gas on revamp of road user chargesInfrastructure New Zealand is pushing for new road user charges to be brought in quicker to help relieve pressure on strained transport funding. ...23 hours ago
- US student Palestine protests against Israel’s war on Gaza inspire global action
Asia Pacific Report From France to Australia, university pro-Palestine protests in the United States have now spread to several countries with students pitching on-campus camps. And students at Columbia and other US universities remain defiant as campuses have witnessed the biggest protests since the anti-Vietnam war and anti-apartheid eras in ...1 day ago - Former Te Whatu Ora chairperson Rob Campbell criticises Health NZ's 'savings' directi...Rob Campbell said it shows "poor management" and is "frankly irresponsible". ...1 day ago
- ‘To lead is to serve’ – Governor-General to call PM election in Solomon IslandsRNZ Pacific The race to form the next government of Solomon Islands could be a tight one, with no single party emerging from the election with enough seats to govern. Caretaker prime minister Manasseh Sogavare’s Our Party did the best, securing 15 out of the 50 seats in the House. ...1 day ago
- Bryce Edwards – FastTrackWatch: The Case for the Government’s Fast Track BillAnalysis by Dr Bryce Edwards, Democracy Project (https://democracyproject.nz) New Zealand Government’s Fast Track legislation. Many criticisms are being made of the Government’s Fast Track Approvals Bill, including by this writer. But as with everything in politics, every story has two sides, and both deserve attention. It’s important to understand what the Government ...1 day ago
- NZ and Türkiye pledge cooperation during natural disastersThe two countries have "a long history of coming to each other's aid", including after the 2023 Turkish earthquakes, Winston Peters says. ...1 day ago
- Waste not, want not: New series Food Waste Kitchen turns food trash into treasureTara Ward talks to presenter Naomi Toilalo about the new TV show that turns food waste into a three course feast. Naomi Toilalo is standing in the warehouse at Good Neighbour Tauranga, helping unpack the two-and-a-half tonnes of rejected food that will arrive at the community support hub that day. ...1 day ago
- Vaping regulations fight 'immeasurably harder' under coalition – campaignerFocus on Politics - Successive governments have claimed crack downs on youth vaping, but the bending and breaking of rules seems pervasive. ...1 day ago
- Dog of the month: Scout, who is so independent she could be a catScout is our latest Dog of the Month. This feature was offered as a reward during our What’s Eating Aotearoa PledgeMe campaign. Thank you to Scout’s human, Avril, for her support. Dog name: Scout (named after the little girl in To Kill a Mockingbird – she inherited the independent spirit ...1 day ago
- ‘I don’t know if we were brave or stupid’: Megan Alatini on changing reality TVMegan Alatini takes us through her life in TV, including ‘terrible’ daytime TV, the class of Carol Hirschfeld and her most embarrassing TrueBliss moment. When she responded to a vague newspaper ad asking “do you have what it takes to be a popstar?” 25 years ago, Megan Alatini never guessed ...1 day ago
- Behind the counter: Wellington shopkeepersA new exhibition in Wellington showcases the faces behind your local goods and services. Back in 1977, when I was a fine arts student at the University of Canterbury, I took a series of photographs of Christchurch shopkeepers. The photos were for a calendar – a project for my end ...1 day ago
- Iranian Solidarity Group New Zealand Condemns Toomaj Salehi's Death Sentence And The New Aggres...Toomaj and his resistance to tyranny through his songs have become an icon for the youth of Iran, so his sentence has hit the nation hard. Toomaj Salehi is not the first artist to pay the price for standing with the people. ...1 day ago
- Short story: Calf Creek, by Anna ScaifeMy cousin Dylan and I spotted these big eels under the bridge that summer. We watched them lounging under the dark weed, facing into the flow of water, their mouths frozen open. Dylan and I couldn’t stop thinking about those eels. The night we went down to the creek, we ...1 day ago
- Newsroom welcomes the Secret DiaryNewsroom, home of satire. My long-running weekly satirical series The Secret Diary has moved to Newsroom and will appear every Saturday, with Victor Billot’s wildly popular satirical Odes continuing to appear every Sunday. Diaries, Odes – while serious political columnists toil at meaningful opinions and stroke their chins to an ...1 day ago
- I saw ‘The Sign’, and it opened up my eyes: All the fuss around Bluey, explainedTara Ward unravels the many nuanced layers of a cartoon about talking dogs. This is an excerpt from our weekly pop culture newsletter Rec Room. Sign up here. It’s not often an episode of a children’s cartoon has adults sobbing into their sleeves, but that’s exactly what happened this week when ...1 day ago
- Jessica Tater has ambition without bordersWorking as a doctor in developing countries to help communities achieve better health outcomes is nothing short of a life goal for Jessica Tater. The University of Otago medical student has her sights firmly set on joining the international humanitarian organisation Doctors Without Borders/Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) when she qualifies ...1 day ago
- The island where people’s stories are paramountThere’s an island in the far reaches of Auckland’s territory, sitting off the tip of the Coromandel Peninsula, 30 minutes by air from the city or four hours on the slow boat. Aotea Great Barrier is off-grid, it has a population of fewer than a thousand people … and most ...1 day ago
- Australian author leads silence protest over ‘blood debt’ owed to PapuansAsia Pacific Report An Australian author and advocate, Jim Aubrey, today led a national symbolic one minute’s silence to mark the “blood debt” owed to Papuan allies during the Second World War indigenous resistance against the invading Japanese forces. “A promise to most people is a promise,” Aubrey said in ...2 days ago
- Israel delays Gaza Freedom Flotilla departure with bureaucratic ‘block’Asia Pacific Report The Freedom Flotilla is ready to sail to Gaza, reports Kia Ora Gaza. All the required paperwork has been submitted to the port authority, and the cargo has been loaded and prepared for the humanitarian trip to the besieged enclave. However, organisers received word of an “administrative ...2 days ago
- Have New Zealanders really been ‘misled’ about AUKUS, or is involvement now a foregone conclusio...ANALYSIS: By Marco de Jong, Auckland University of Technology and Robert G. Patman, University of Otago When former prime minister Helen Clark spoke out against New Zealand potentially compromising its independent foreign policy by joining pillar two of the AUKUS security pact, Foreign Minister Winston Peters responded bluntly: On ...2 days ago
- Palestine protesters challenge TVNZ over Israeli ambassador’s ‘propaganda’Pacific Media Watch Palestine solidarity protesters today demonstrated at the Auckland headquarters of Television New Zealand, accusing the country’s major TV network of broadcasting “propaganda” backing Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza. About 50 protesters targeted the main entrance to the TVNZ building near Sky Tower and also picketed a side ...2 days ago
- Lynley Hood Opinion – Senator Fulbright must be spinning in his grave2 days ago
- Fast-track bill could affect NZ's reputation – Transparency InternationalThe ministers responsible for green-lighting major projects need to be open about potential conflicts of interest, says Transparency International. ...2 days ago
- We’re all feeling the collective grief and trauma of violence against women – but this is the pr...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Anastasia Powell, Professor, Family and Sexual Violence, RMIT University It has been a particularly distressing start to the year. There is little that can ease the current grief of individuals, families and communities who have needlessly lost a loved one to men’s ...2 days ago
- Species living closely together in symbiosis is far older and way more common than you might thinkSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Gregory Moore, Senior Research Associate, School of Ecosystem and Forest Sciences, The University of Melbourne Lichen, the first described example of symbiosis. AdeJ Artventure/Shutterstock Once known only to those studying biology, the word symbiosis is now widely used. Symbiosis is the intimate ...2 days ago
- What is childhood dementia? And how could new research help?Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kim Hemsley, Head, Childhood Dementia Research Group, Flinders Health and Medical Research Institute, College of Medicine and Public Health, Flinders University Olena Ivanova/Shutterstock “Childhood” and “dementia” are two words we wish we didn’t have to use together. But sadly, around 1,400 ...2 days ago
- Jobseekers get about $345 less than pensioners each fortnight. This gap is hurting, and is set to wi...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Whiteford, Professor, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University The government’s Economic Inclusion Advisory Committee has just published its second report. It was set up by Treasurer Jim Chalmers and Minister for Social Services Amanda Rishworth in 2022 to provide: ...2 days ago
- Does fighting inflation always lead to recession? What NZ data tellsHere is what 60 years of New Zealand data shows us. ...2 days ago
- The government's 20 trips abroad in AprilThe government appears committed to overseas visits with 14 ministers and MPs in 18 countries this month. ...2 days ago
- Government unveils fetal alcohol guidelines, plan for diagnosis trainingThe government is promising to step up the response to Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorder, promising to boost diagnoses and raise awareness. ...2 days ago
- Labor facing heavy defeat in Queensland, but faring better in federal pollsSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne The Queensland state election will be held in October. A YouGov poll for The Courier Mail, conducted April 9–17 from a sample ...2 days ago
- Why the potential for another Donald Trump presidency is making Iran very nervousSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Amin Naeni, PhD candidate at Alfred Deakin Institute for Citizenship and Globalisation, Deakin University There’s been much talk in recent months about what a possible second Donald Trump presidency in the United States could mean for Europe, Russia’s war in Ukraine, the ...2 days ago
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Interesting analogy..a bit of a groin stretch tho'..
I would consider addictions to eating animal flesh..as closer to heroin..in that urge to daily consume…and physical/mental withdrawals (of a sort)..
Housing/mortgages don't fill that criteria…
And I would question the do crack and you don't come back claim.(n.b..'p' is not crack..crack is further processed cocaine that is smoked..and it is very very addictive/obsessive..but surprisingly easy to kick..
I got a crack habit while living in a foreign city..and when I decided to kick it..I flew to jamaica..and hung out with the rastafarians…smoking a ton of weed to get me over the hump of withdrawals..and it was much easier than I suspected…
In fact the ease I found in kicking both powdered cocaine and crack has left me with little sympathy for those addicted to 'p'..who claim to be unable to kick it..
Fast drugs are much easier to kick than the opiates (heroin etc)…with heroin at about 8 out of ten in difficulty..and crack/cocaine/'p' about 3 out of ten…
Where your heroin analogy does work is in the strength of the addiction nz has to this staple of life..housing..as a wealth creator…
And the difficulties in kicking both..the nz withdrawals are gonna be ugly…(I think we are in the early cold-sweats stage now..day three is the worst..)
But..y'know..!…there are other ways of living…
And as a society we need to facilitate them…
And of course like long term use of heroin…a mort-gage (in french) is a death-pledge..
As a society we have to kick that habit..it can only end in tears…
By March this year New Zealand’s median sale price was down 13.9% on a year previously. In Wellington it was down 20.6% and Auckland’s was down 15.2%. Pain.
Corporations feel no pain. Ditto speculators.
NZ median house prices blew out in 2022 to an average of 471 k – more than three times the 144k of 2000, and more than 20% higher 2020. The median home owner buys infrequently, every 5-10 years at most. Corrections of less than recent inflation only affect speculators, and a tiny fraction of over-leveraged recent purchasers.
Sustain these mostly unrealized losses for years and, yes, there may be some pain. But not on the scale of the harm done by the unenlightened policy of inflating real estate out of the reach of ordinary New Zealanders. For many, sustained falls are the only hope of getting the slumlords' boots off their necks.
House prices are only falling because interest rates are going up. People are still shelling out the same amount of money, just more of it is going to the bank in interest.
What people need is for interest rates to go down and for house prices to go down. The problem is that we have had a huge surge in immigration – possibly pent-up demand or maybe a longer time trend. Housing is going to be in short supply again. It may take a little while in Auckland as the pop declined over the covid era but everywhere else had covid era growth and now immigration.
Immigrants can't buy so rental properties are going to be highly desirable for speculators which wipes out all the young ones looking for first homes.
None of this is good.
Two scenarios
National win and restore the ability to charge mortgage cost against rent income for existing property. Investors will hold what they have and buy more of such housing (instead of buying new supply only – which encourages development) and so house prices will rise. Which is why National would reduce the bright line test down to 2 years – so people can make an untaxed CG.
Labour wins, and the arrival of full impact of loss of mortgage interest payment cost against rent income for existing property rented out forces them to sell and buy new builds for rent instead. These sales and the increase in new build supply holds down property values.
PS Less migrants and higher wages means lower house prices and closer connection to incomes. But the neo-liberal regime would call that inflation that the RB Act was designed to prevent. Guess why house values and mortgage interest levels are not part of our inflation statistics – despite the fact that buying a property is the largest cost against income anyone will have.
Short version.
Cry for the person who has a mortgage, including investors who speculated for profit using borrowed money, since 2019. For me, not for the "investors". People did this in stock markets pre 1987 and 1999 and 2008. Others burnt on bit coin. Don't speculate using borrowed money. Save the sympathy for those who lost their savings in finance companies (2007-8) etc or who bought leaky homes.
Fact is, even back in 2019 property values had reached a level where it was beyond the reach of our incomes.
And more people are struggling with homelessness or unaffordable rents, than are struggling with mortgage payments.
Those who sold property in 2020-2021 made largely untaxed CG/wealth gains. And ended up owning property without any debt whatsoever (positioning for the total loss of mortgage deductability – they just needed suckers to join the investor pyramid pool at the bottom rung to position themselves as the elite on top). Note that Luxon has no mortgage debt against his properties.
The struggles of some are no reason not have a wealth tax as the Greens correctly propose.
Fortunately most first home homeowners bought before the end of 2019 and will have more value than debt. And the time of high mortgage rates will pass and provided they retain employment they should be OK. The government can help them by providing income support to non working partners to reduce the number of mortgagee sales. This policy would also help the sole parent should they form a relationship with someone working – which would lead to more efficient use of housing.
As would a tax on vacant housing and unused land as applies in Oz.
House prices flatlined 1976-1981 because of high interest rates. Wages rose with inflation and thus against house values, thus anyone living at home in those years was able to save and buy a house within 5 years of leaving high school (having the equity to do so). Hopefully this might happen again, assisted by access to jobs/apprenticeships.
I hope house prices in 2024 are no higher than they were in 2019. Thus a decline in real terms and bringing them back to incomes. So more people can own.
Perhaps clearer as
Short version. Cry for the person who has a mortgage, including investors who speculated for profit using borrowed money, since 2019.
For me, not for the investors. People did this in stock markets pre 1987 and 1999 and 2008. Others burnt on bit coin. Don't speculate using borrowed money. Save the sympathy for those who lost their savings in finance companies (2007-8) etc or who bought leaky homes.
etc
Shorter still; the music always stops. Always.
The music stops analogy was used in the movie "Margin Call". Jeremy Irons played a great role as head of the investment company shafting its customers ("Standing here tonight I don't hear a thing").
Take a look at it on Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UOYi4NzxlhE
No investment for profit is, or should be risk-free.
Must be due a debt jubilee.
It clearly needs some such sword..to cut thru the gordian knot…
I agree Craig. You will probably be aware of the extensive writing on debt forgiveness of my favourite economist Michael Hudson the author of "…and forgive them their debts" which corrects the wording of the Lord's prayer, and The Destiny of Civilisation, also Ann Pettifor, the author of The coming first world debt crisis. Both were involved in the Jubilee 2000 debt forgiveness program for countries in the global South. Michael can be followed at his eponymous website https://michael-hudson.com/ and Ann Pettifor at Prime Economics https://www.primeeconomics.org/
At some point the nation state is going to have to make a choice to between being a subject of global market capital neo-liberalism (the 1% ers regime) or enabling continuance of a semblance of democratic governance.
And that means not being constrained by debt.
Government finance free of debt, separate from tax revenues.