web analytics

Polity: Key practices 56% truth inflation

Written By: - Date published: 3:48 pm, February 19th, 2014 - 21 comments
Categories: Economy, employment, john key, national, same old national, treasury - Tags:

The original of this post is here.

Here’s the Prime Minister in Question Time yesterday:

Hon David Cunliffe: Is he taking economic advice from Colin Craig and are Māori not looking really hard for jobs as the Māori unemployment rate has increased by 3 percent to almost 13 percent since December 2008?

Rt Hon JOHN KEY: Again, I go through the issues that have taken place over the course of the last 5 or 6 years. What I do know is that when this Government came in, there were predictions that unemployment would rise to over 10 percent. In fact, that never occurred. Unemployment topped out at, I think, 7.2 or 7.3 percent.

Well I for one would sure like to see where those predictions of 10% unemployment came from, because if we look at Treasury’s official predictions from when John Key took office, the highest unemployment they forecast was only 6.4% – well below the level that National has allowed it to reach.

In fact, here’s a quick chart of Treasury’s December 2008 projections (see p5) of the March quarter unemployment rate, versus the actual March quarter unemployment rate (StatsNZ figures) up to 2013.

Far from outperforming the forecasts as he claims, unemployment under National has always been above the Treasury forecast when he took office, and his performance against the forecasts has recently got worse and worse.

Imagine the outcry if a error this big – on a core policy indicator that matters to many New Zealanders – had been made by a leading opposition politician. Now go looking for any outrage over Key’s error.

21 comments on “Polity: Key practices 56% truth inflation ”

  1. Tracey 1

    Given he believes in giving the public important info he will release his source overnight.

    The herald and others will be on him all week for mis speaking.

    ” Governments and Ministers must enjoy the confidence of the Parliament and, ultimately, the public. Faced with today’s revelations, it is no longer acceptable for Mr Peters to offer bluster and insults where simple, courteous, honest answers are required.

    “It is no longer acceptable or credible for Helen Clark to assert a facade of confidence in her Foreign Affairs Minister and to fail to ask the plain questions of him that she has a duty to the public to ask.”

  2. blue leopard (Get Lost GCSB Bill) 2

    I note that National do this type of thing all the time – using ‘comparative language’ (i.e. ‘better than’, ‘improving’ and this above case of ‘better than expected’).

    Their choice of what they then compare the stats with is always dubious. This is what occurred with their notion of the wealth disparity gap ‘improving’ (they pick a time somewhere in the past when it wasn’t great but worse than now and ignore how excellent our income used to be prior to the monolithically stupid neo-liberalist ultraism started being pursued ), or how our wages overall are ‘improving’ (jam together all incomes and use the benefits the wealthiest have experienced to cancel out the lower income group having gone backwards).

    National are very ‘tricky’ and employ weasel words to fool us.

    I wish we had a decent media. At least we have places like The Standard to go to, although this doesn’t help all the people who only get their info from the mainstream media.

  3. One Anonymous Bloke 3

    Where’s Paddy “the story” Gower on this one? Is he being a partisan little hack as usual?

    • Akldnut 3.1

      Meh……. TV 1 Political reporters = partisan Hacks

    • David H 3.2

      Naaa story is already here. Nothing to make up.

    • Stuart Munro 3.3

      Partisan Hack doesn’t quite cover it I’m afraid. Aparatchik, corrupt apologist or propogandist would be nearer the mark. NZ’s editorial standards have fallen to the level of the North Korean papers – I read a few with a Korean friend doing a research project – very amusing, provided it’s not your own country…

  4. Whatever next 4

    Show us the facts John

  5. Lanthanide 5

    I don’t think there’s anything particularly radical about this.

    Remember, 2008 was back in the first throes of the GFC. I remember reading articles from economists in the US predicting that the recession s would be worse than the 2001 one, but not as bad the as the 1992-1993 one they had.

    Pretty sure the NZ treasury would have been thinking the same. No mainstream economists were thinking it would get as bad as it did.

    • fender 5.1

      No there’s nothing particularly radical about Key plucking figures out of the usual place.

    • Lanthanide 5.2

      Actually another thing I’m suspicious of is why he’s using treasury’s 2008 forecast instead of one from say 2009 or 2010. I’m sure against the latter predictions, National aren’t doing nearly so bad.

      There’s two sides to this of course: by 2009/2010, treasury had seen National’s policy agenda so had a better idea of where it would be going in terms of unemployment. On the other hand however, they also would have more fully appreciated the GFC and therefore been able to make better forecasts.

      All in all, I think there’s too much uncertainty and a poor backdrop to really lay any particular blame at National for how things panned out. For all we know, their policies helped to stabilise employment more than a Labour government’s would have.

      • lprent 5.2.1

        I suspect that is because that was what John Key was claiming. It was at the time he took office that the employment predictions were for 10% unemployment.

        I guess that John Key wasn’t paying attention to what Treasury were actually saying. Kind of scary that…

  6. BLiP 6

    Speaking of John Key’s lies, there was another one yesterday in this exchange when he said New Zealand now had the lowest level of migration from New Zealand to Australia. David Cunliffe tried to table the documents proving the lie (see at around 13 minutes) but, needless to say, National Ltd™ objected. Does anyone have a link to or copy of the DOX Cunliffe was attempting to table?

    • Draco T Bastard 6.1

      Thinking about that I’ve decided that we need a webpage that has a copy of all the stuff tabled in Question Time which includes a copy of the stuff that was objected to as well.

      I also think a reason is needed to support any objection to prevent parties from objecting simply because it upsets them.

  7. felix 7

    Presumably Key’s lie was easily spotted by one of Labour’s well-informed economic/labour/social development spokespeople and immediately exposed in the follow-up question…

  8. captain hook 8

    show us the jobs john.
    in a proeprly functioning economy jobs are advertised to be filled.
    the national party way is to have people skulking around adn greasing up employers bums and offering to do deals on wages and conditions that undermine everyone else.
    so one more time donkey.
    where are the jobs?

  9. Tracey 9

    A decided lack of right wingers on this thread. I suppose it’s better to say nothing when the Leader is being so blatant in his deception?

  10. Richard@Down South 10

    Maybe he means some dude down the street said ‘OI, KEY, BET YOU UNEMPLOYMENT WILL HIT 10%’

    what a waste of space Key is

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

  • Major redevelopment of Wainuiomata High School underway
    Work begins today at Wainuiomata High School to ensure buildings and teaching spaces are fit for purpose, Education Minister Chris Hipkins says. The Minister joined principal Janette Melrose and board chair Lynda Koia to kick off demolition for the project, which is worth close to $40 million, as the site ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 hour ago
  • New expert group appointed to advise Government on Oranga Tamariki
    A skilled and experienced group of people have been named as the newly established Oranga Tamariki Ministerial Advisory Board by Children’s Minister Kelvin Davis today. The Board will provide independent advice and assurance to the Minister for Children across three key areas of Oranga Tamariki: relationships with families, whānau, and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 hours ago
  • COVID-19 vaccine slated for possible approval next week
    The green light for New Zealand’s first COVID-19 vaccine could be granted in just over a week, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said today. “We’re making swift progress towards vaccinating New Zealanders against the virus, but we’re also absolutely committed to ensuring the vaccines are safe and effective,” Jacinda Ardern said. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    19 hours ago
  • New ACC Board members announced.
    The Minister for ACC is pleased to announce the appointment of three new members to join the Board of ACC on 1 February 2021. “All three bring diverse skills and experience to provide strong governance oversight to lead the direction of ACC” said Hon Carmel Sepuloni. Bella Takiari-Brame from Hamilton ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    22 hours ago
  • Economic boost for Southland marae
    The Government is investing $9 million to upgrade a significant community facility in Invercargill, creating economic stimulus and jobs, Infrastructure Minister Grant Robertson and Te Tai Tonga MP Rino Tirikatene have announced.  The grant for Waihōpai Rūnaka Inc to make improvements to Murihiku Marae comes from the $3 billion set ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Celebrating the Entry Into Force of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons
    [Opening comments, welcome and thank you to Auckland University etc] It is a great pleasure to be here this afternoon to celebrate such an historic occasion - the entry into force of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons. This is a moment many feared would never come, but ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Supporting disabled people to stay connected
    The Government is providing $3 million in one-off seed funding to help disabled people around New Zealand stay connected and access support in their communities, Minister for Disability Issues, Carmel Sepuloni announced today. The funding will allow disability service providers to develop digital and community-based solutions over the next two ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Voluntary saliva testing offered to quarantine workers from Monday
    Border workers in quarantine facilities will be offered voluntary daily COVID-19 saliva tests in addition to their regular weekly testing, COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins said today. This additional option will be rolled out at the Jet Park Quarantine facility in Auckland starting on Monday 25 January, and then to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Next steps in firearms buy-back
    The next steps in the Government’s ambitious firearms reform programme to include a three-month buy-back have been announced by Police Minister Poto Williams today.  “The last buy-back and amnesty was unprecedented for New Zealand and was successful in collecting 60,297 firearms, modifying a further 5,630 firearms, and collecting 299,837 prohibited ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Jobs for Nature projects target iconic ecosystems
    Upscaling work already underway to restore two iconic ecosystems will deliver jobs and a lasting legacy, Conservation Minister Kiri Allan says.  “The Jobs for Nature programme provides $1.25 billion over four years to offer employment opportunities for people whose livelihoods have been impacted by the COVID-19 recession. “Two new projects ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • New Public Housing Plan announced
    The Government has released its Public Housing Plan 2021-2024 which outlines the intention of where 8,000 additional public and transitional housing places announced in Budget 2020, will go. “The Government is committed to continuing its public house build programme at pace and scale. The extra 8,000 homes – 6000 public ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Prime Minister congratulates President Joe Biden on his inauguration
    Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has congratulated President Joe Biden on his inauguration as the 46th President of the United States of America. “I look forward to building a close relationship with President Biden and working with him on issues that matter to both our countries,” Jacinda Ardern said. “New Zealand ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Jobs for Nature funding will create training and employment opportunities
    A major investment to tackle wilding pines in Mt Richmond will create jobs and help protect the area’s unique ecosystems, Biosecurity Minister Damien O’Connor says. The Mt Richmond Forest Park has unique ecosystems developed on mineral-rich geology, including taonga plant species found nowhere else in the country. “These special plant ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Pre-departure testing extended to all passengers to New Zealand
    To further protect New Zealand from COVID-19, the Government is extending pre-departure testing to all passengers to New Zealand except from Australia, Antarctica and most Pacific Islands, COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins said today. “The change will come into force for all flights arriving in New Zealand after 11:59pm (NZT) on Monday ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Bay Cadets learn skills to protect environment
    Bay Conservation Cadets launched with first intake Supported with $3.5 million grant Part of $1.245b Jobs for Nature programme to accelerate recover from Covid Cadets will learn skills to protect and enhance environment Environment Minister David Parker today welcomed the first intake of cadets at the launch of the Bay ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Cook Islanders to resume travel to New Zealand
    The Prime Minister of New Zealand Jacinda Ardern and the Prime Minister of the Cook Islands Mark Brown have announced passengers from the Cook Islands can resume quarantine-free travel into New Zealand from 21 January, enabling access to essential services such as health. “Following confirmation of the Cook Islands’ COVID ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Supporting communities and landowners to grow employment opportunities
    Jobs for Nature funding is being made available to conservation groups and landowners to employ staff and contractors in a move aimed at boosting local biodiversity-focused projects, Conservation Minister Kiritapu Allan has announced. It is estimated some 400-plus jobs will be created with employment opportunities in ecology, restoration, trapping, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Border exception for some returning international tertiary students
    The Government has approved an exception class for 1000 international tertiary students, degree level and above, who began their study in New Zealand but were caught offshore when border restrictions began. The exception will allow students to return to New Zealand in stages from April 2021. “Our top priority continues ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Tiwai deal gives time for managed transition
    Today’s deal between Meridian and Rio Tinto for the Tiwai smelter to remain open another four years provides time for a managed transition for Southland. “The deal provides welcome certainty to the Southland community by protecting jobs and incomes as the region plans for the future. The Government is committed ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • New member for APEC Business Advisory Council
    Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has appointed Anna Curzon to the APEC Business Advisory Council (ABAC). The leader of each APEC economy appoints three private sector representatives to ABAC. ABAC provides advice to leaders annually on business priorities. “ABAC helps ensure that APEC’s work programme is informed by business community perspectives ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Govt’s careful economic management recognised
    The Government’s prudent fiscal management and strong policy programme in the face of the COVID-19 global pandemic have been acknowledged by the credit rating agency Fitch. Fitch has today affirmed New Zealand’s local currency rating at AA+ with a stable outlook and foreign currency rating at AA with a positive ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Additional actions to keep COVID-19 out of NZ
    The Government is putting in place a suite of additional actions to protect New Zealand from COVID-19, including new emerging variants, COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins said today. “Given the high rates of infection in many countries and evidence of the global spread of more transmissible variants, it’s clear that ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • 19 projects will clean up and protect waterways
    $36 million of Government funding alongside councils and others for 19 projects Investment will clean up and protect waterways and create local jobs Boots on the ground expected in Q2 of 2021 Funding part of the Jobs for Nature policy package A package of 19 projects will help clean up ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago
  • New Zealand Government acknowledges 175th anniversary of Battle of Ruapekapeka
    The commemoration of the 175th anniversary of the Battle of Ruapekapeka represents an opportunity for all New Zealanders to reflect on the role these conflicts have had in creating our modern nation, says Associate Minister for Arts, Culture and Heritage Kiri Allan. “The Battle at Te Ruapekapeka Pā, which took ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago