web analytics

Polity: Key practices 56% truth inflation

Written By: - Date published: 3:48 pm, February 19th, 2014 - 21 comments
Categories: Economy, employment, john key, national, same old national, treasury - Tags:

The original of this post is here.

Here’s the Prime Minister in Question Time yesterday:

Hon David Cunliffe: Is he taking economic advice from Colin Craig and are Māori not looking really hard for jobs as the Māori unemployment rate has increased by 3 percent to almost 13 percent since December 2008?

Rt Hon JOHN KEY: Again, I go through the issues that have taken place over the course of the last 5 or 6 years. What I do know is that when this Government came in, there were predictions that unemployment would rise to over 10 percent. In fact, that never occurred. Unemployment topped out at, I think, 7.2 or 7.3 percent.

Well I for one would sure like to see where those predictions of 10% unemployment came from, because if we look at Treasury’s official predictions from when John Key took office, the highest unemployment they forecast was only 6.4% – well below the level that National has allowed it to reach.

In fact, here’s a quick chart of Treasury’s December 2008 projections (see p5) of the March quarter unemployment rate, versus the actual March quarter unemployment rate (StatsNZ figures) up to 2013.

Far from outperforming the forecasts as he claims, unemployment under National has always been above the Treasury forecast when he took office, and his performance against the forecasts has recently got worse and worse.

Imagine the outcry if a error this big – on a core policy indicator that matters to many New Zealanders – had been made by a leading opposition politician. Now go looking for any outrage over Key’s error.

21 comments on “Polity: Key practices 56% truth inflation ”

  1. Tracey 1

    Given he believes in giving the public important info he will release his source overnight.

    The herald and others will be on him all week for mis speaking.

    ” Governments and Ministers must enjoy the confidence of the Parliament and, ultimately, the public. Faced with today’s revelations, it is no longer acceptable for Mr Peters to offer bluster and insults where simple, courteous, honest answers are required.

    “It is no longer acceptable or credible for Helen Clark to assert a facade of confidence in her Foreign Affairs Minister and to fail to ask the plain questions of him that she has a duty to the public to ask.”

  2. blue leopard (Get Lost GCSB Bill) 2

    I note that National do this type of thing all the time – using ‘comparative language’ (i.e. ‘better than’, ‘improving’ and this above case of ‘better than expected’).

    Their choice of what they then compare the stats with is always dubious. This is what occurred with their notion of the wealth disparity gap ‘improving’ (they pick a time somewhere in the past when it wasn’t great but worse than now and ignore how excellent our income used to be prior to the monolithically stupid neo-liberalist ultraism started being pursued ), or how our wages overall are ‘improving’ (jam together all incomes and use the benefits the wealthiest have experienced to cancel out the lower income group having gone backwards).

    National are very ‘tricky’ and employ weasel words to fool us.

    I wish we had a decent media. At least we have places like The Standard to go to, although this doesn’t help all the people who only get their info from the mainstream media.

  3. One Anonymous Bloke 3

    Where’s Paddy “the story” Gower on this one? Is he being a partisan little hack as usual?

    • Akldnut 3.1

      Meh……. TV 1 Political reporters = partisan Hacks

    • David H 3.2

      Naaa story is already here. Nothing to make up.

    • Stuart Munro 3.3

      Partisan Hack doesn’t quite cover it I’m afraid. Aparatchik, corrupt apologist or propogandist would be nearer the mark. NZ’s editorial standards have fallen to the level of the North Korean papers – I read a few with a Korean friend doing a research project – very amusing, provided it’s not your own country…

  4. Whatever next 4

    Show us the facts John

  5. Lanthanide 5

    I don’t think there’s anything particularly radical about this.

    Remember, 2008 was back in the first throes of the GFC. I remember reading articles from economists in the US predicting that the recession s would be worse than the 2001 one, but not as bad the as the 1992-1993 one they had.

    Pretty sure the NZ treasury would have been thinking the same. No mainstream economists were thinking it would get as bad as it did.

    • fender 5.1

      No there’s nothing particularly radical about Key plucking figures out of the usual place.

    • Lanthanide 5.2

      Actually another thing I’m suspicious of is why he’s using treasury’s 2008 forecast instead of one from say 2009 or 2010. I’m sure against the latter predictions, National aren’t doing nearly so bad.

      There’s two sides to this of course: by 2009/2010, treasury had seen National’s policy agenda so had a better idea of where it would be going in terms of unemployment. On the other hand however, they also would have more fully appreciated the GFC and therefore been able to make better forecasts.

      All in all, I think there’s too much uncertainty and a poor backdrop to really lay any particular blame at National for how things panned out. For all we know, their policies helped to stabilise employment more than a Labour government’s would have.

      • lprent 5.2.1

        I suspect that is because that was what John Key was claiming. It was at the time he took office that the employment predictions were for 10% unemployment.

        I guess that John Key wasn’t paying attention to what Treasury were actually saying. Kind of scary that…

  6. BLiP 6

    Speaking of John Key’s lies, there was another one yesterday in this exchange when he said New Zealand now had the lowest level of migration from New Zealand to Australia. David Cunliffe tried to table the documents proving the lie (see at around 13 minutes) but, needless to say, National Ltd™ objected. Does anyone have a link to or copy of the DOX Cunliffe was attempting to table?

    • Draco T Bastard 6.1

      Thinking about that I’ve decided that we need a webpage that has a copy of all the stuff tabled in Question Time which includes a copy of the stuff that was objected to as well.

      I also think a reason is needed to support any objection to prevent parties from objecting simply because it upsets them.

  7. felix 7

    Presumably Key’s lie was easily spotted by one of Labour’s well-informed economic/labour/social development spokespeople and immediately exposed in the follow-up question…

  8. captain hook 8

    show us the jobs john.
    in a proeprly functioning economy jobs are advertised to be filled.
    the national party way is to have people skulking around adn greasing up employers bums and offering to do deals on wages and conditions that undermine everyone else.
    so one more time donkey.
    where are the jobs?

  9. Tracey 9

    A decided lack of right wingers on this thread. I suppose it’s better to say nothing when the Leader is being so blatant in his deception?

  10. Richard@Down South 10

    Maybe he means some dude down the street said ‘OI, KEY, BET YOU UNEMPLOYMENT WILL HIT 10%’

    what a waste of space Key is

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

  • NZ announces a third P-3 deployment in support of UN sanctions
    The Government has deployed a Royal New Zealand Air Force P-3K2 Orion (P-3) maritime patrol aircraft to support the implementation of United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolutions imposing sanctions against North Korea, announced Minister of Foreign Affairs Winston Peters and Minister of Defence Ron Mark. “New Zealand has long supported ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Pacific trade and development agreement a reality
    Pacific regional trade and development agreement PACER Plus will enter into force in 60 days now that the required eight countries have ratified it. Trade and Export Growth Minister David Parker welcomed the announcement that the Cook Islands is the eighth nation to ratify this landmark agreement. “The agreement represents ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Securing a pipeline of teachers
    The Government is changing its approach to teacher recruitment as COVID-19 travel restrictions continue, by boosting a range of initiatives to get more Kiwis into teaching. “When we came into Government, we were faced with a teacher supply crisis,” Education Minister Chris Hipkins said. “Over the past three years, we ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Border exceptions for a small number of international students with visas
    The Government has established a new category that will allow 250 international PhD and postgraduate students to enter New Zealand and continue their studies, in the latest set of border exceptions. “The health, safety and wellbeing of people in New Zealand remains the Government’s top priority. Tight border restrictions remain ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • First COVID-19 vaccine purchase agreement signed
    The Government has signed an agreement to purchase 1.5 million COVID-19 vaccines – enough for 750,000 people – from Pfizer and BioNTech, subject to the vaccine successfully completing all clinical trials and passing regulatory approvals in New Zealand, say Research, Science and Innovation Minister Megan Woods and Health Minister Chris Hipkins. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • International statement – End-to-end encryption and public safety
    We, the undersigned, support strong encryption, which plays a crucial role in protecting personal data, privacy, intellectual property, trade secrets and cyber security.  It also serves a vital purpose in repressive states to protect journalists, human rights defenders and other vulnerable people, as stated in the 2017 resolution of the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Ministry of Defence Biodefence Assessment released
    The Ministry of Defence has today released a Defence Assessment examining Defence’s role across the spectrum of biological hazards and threats facing New Zealand. Biodefence: Preparing for a New Era of Biological Hazards and Threats looks at how the NZDF supports other agencies’ biodefence activities, and considers the context of ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • New Approaches to Economic Challenges: Confronting Planetary Emergencies: OECD 9 October 2020
    New Approaches to Economic Challenges: Confronting Planetary Emergencies: OECD 9 October 2020 Hon David Parker’s response following Thomas Piketty and Esther Duflo. Good morning, good afternoon, and good evening, wherever in the world you might be. I first acknowledge the excellent thought provoking speeches of Thomas Piketty and Esther ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Kaipara Moana restoration takes next step
    A Memorandum of Understanding has been signed today at Waihāua Marae between the Crown, local iwi and councils to protect, restore and enhance the mauri of Kaipara Moana in Northland. Environment Minister David Parker signed the document on behalf of the Crown along with representatives from Ngā Maunga Whakahī, Ngāti ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • New Zealand and Uruguay unite on reducing livestock production emissions
    Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor and Uruguayan Minister of Livestock, Agriculture and Fisheries Carlos María Uriarte have welcomed the launch of a three-year project that will underpin sustainable livestock production in Uruguay, Argentina, and Costa Rica.  The project called ‘Innovation for pasture management’ is led by Uruguay’s National Institute of Agricultural ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • 3100 jobs created through marae upgrades
    Hundreds of marae throughout the country will be upgraded through investments from the Provincial Growth Fund’s refocused post COVID-19 funding to create jobs and put money into the pockets of local tradespeople and businesses, Regional Economic Development Minister Shane Jones and Māori Development Minister Nanaia Mahuta have announced. “A total ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Health volunteers recognised in annual awards
    Health Minister Chris Hipkins has announced 9 teams and 14 individuals are the recipients of this year’s Minister of Health Volunteer Awards.  “The health volunteer awards celebrate and recognise the thousands of dedicated health sector volunteers who give many hours of their time to help other New Zealanders,” Mr Hipkins ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Community COVID-19 Fund supports Pacific recovery
    The Minister for Pacific Peoples, Aupito William Sio says a total of 264 groups and individuals have successfully applied for the Pacific Aotearoa Community COVID-19 Recovery Fund, that will support Pacific communities drive their own COVID-19 recovery strategies, initiatives, and actions. “I am keen to see this Fund support Pacific ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Community benefits from Māori apprenticeships
    Up to 50 Māori apprentices in Wellington will receive paid training to build houses for their local communities, thanks to a $2.75 million investment from the Māori Trades and Training Fund, announced Employment Minister Willie Jackson today. “This funding will enable Ngāti Toa Rangatira Incorporated to provide its Ngā Kaimahi ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Training fund supports Māori jobseekers
    Rapidly growing sectors will benefit from a $990,000 Māori Trades and Training Fund investment which will see Wellington jobseekers supported into work, announced Employment Minister Willie Jackson today. “This funding will enable Sapphire Consultants Ltd. to help up to 45 Māori jobseekers into paid training initiatives over two years through ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Ruakura Inland Port development vital infrastructure for Waikato
    The Government is investing $40 million to develop an inland port at Ruakura which will become a freight super-hub and a future business, research and residential development for the Waikato, Urban Development and Transport Minister Phil Twyford, and Māori Development Minister Nanaia Mahuta announced today. The funding has been has ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Appointments made to Defence Expert Review Group
    Defence Minister Ron Mark announced today the establishment of an Expert Review Group to review a number of aspects of the New Zealand Defence Force’s (NZDF) structure, information management and record-keeping processes.  The Expert Review Group’s work arises out of the first recommendation from the Report of the Government’s Inquiry ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • No active community cases of COVID-19
    There are no active community cases of COVID-19 remaining in the country after the last people from the recent outbreak have recovered from the virus, Health Minister Chris Hipkins said today. “This is a big milestone. New Zealanders have once again through their collective actions squashed the virus. The systems ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Clean energy upgrade for more public buildings
    More public buildings will be supported by the Government to upgrade to run on clean energy, the Minister for Climate Change James Shaw announced today. Minister Shaw announced that Lincoln and Auckland universities will receive support through the Clean-Powered Public Service Fund to replace fossil fuel boilers. Southern, Taranaki, and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Schools back donations scheme for the second year
    More schools have opted in to the donations scheme for 2021, compared to 2020 when the scheme was introduced. “The families of more than 447,000 students will be better off next year, with 94% of eligible schools and kura opting into the scheme,” Education Minister Chris Hipkins said. “This is ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Ruapehu cycle trails gets PGF boost
    The spectacular Mountains to Sea cycle trail in Ruapehu District will receive $4.6 million in funding from the Provincial Growth Fund for two additional trails, Regional Economic Development Minister Shane Jones announced today. “This is an exciting development for the local community, and one that will provide significant economic opportunities ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Update to air border order strengthens crew requirements
    Additional measures coming into effect on Monday will boost our defence against COVID-19 entering New Zealand through the air border, Health Minister Chris Hipkins said today. “As part of our precautionary approach and strategy of constant review, we’re tightening the requirements around international aircrew,” Chris Hipkins said. The COVID-19 Public ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago
  • A true picture of Māori business activity
    A better picture of the contribution Māori businesses make to the economy will be possible with changes to the way information is collected about companies and trading enterprises. Māori Development Minister Nanaia Mahuta and Small Business Minister Stuart Nash have announced a new option for Māori enterprises who are part ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago
  • PGF funding for Taranaki projects
    The South Taranaki museum, a New Plymouth distillery and a Pasifika building firm will benefit from a Government investment totalling more than $1 million, Regional Economic Development Minister Shane Jones says. The $1.05m in grants and loans from the Provincial Growth Fund (PGF) will help the recipients expand and create ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago
  • Fijian Language Week 2020 inspires courage and strength during COVID-19 pandemic
    The Minister for Pacific Peoples, Aupito William Sio says the theme for the 2020 Fijian Language Week reflects the strong belief by Fijians that their language and culture inspires courage and strength that is strongly needed in times of emergencies, or through a significant challenge like the global COVID-19 pandemic ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago
  • Trades training builds on iwi aspirations
    An investment of $2.025 million from the Māori Trades and Training Fund will support Māori to learn new skills while making a positive difference for their communities, announced Employment Minister Willie Jackson today. “K3 Development Limited Partnership will receive $2,025,000 for its Takitimu Tuanui apprenticeship programme, which will support the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago