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Poll shows race closing in Britain

Written By: - Date published: 3:30 pm, February 23rd, 2010 - 20 comments
Categories: International, Politics, uk politics - Tags:

Britain could be heading for a hung Parliament, according to the latest Guardian poll.

With no more than three months to go until polling day, the Conservatives have fallen to 37%, down three. Meanwhile Labour’s support, at 30%, is up one, and eight points up on its absolute ICM bottom last May. The Liberal Democrats are unchanged on 20%, down one on last month’s Guardian poll.

All this suggests that Labour and the Lib Dems are holding steady while the Conservatives lose some ground to smaller parties, which are on a total of 13%. Nationalists are on 5%, Ukip and the Greens on 3% each and the BNP on 2%.

According to the Guardian, estimates of what these shares would mean for the parties on polling day vary, but a 7% lead is at the margins of what the Tories think they need to win a majority. One academic calculation suggests the result would leave Labour only 25 seats behind the Tories in a hung parliament, although any improved Tory performance in marginal seats would offset that.

20 comments on “Poll shows race closing in Britain ”

  1. Lew 1

    This pie chart is almost meaningless, because the election is heavily-gerrymandered FPP. Without seeing electorate nose-counts, there’s no real way of making the assertion in the Guardian’s headline. Looks like tubthumping to me.

    L

    • Smokie 1.1

      Actually Lew did you read the post carefully “a 7% lead is at the margins of what the Tories think they need to win a majority”. The Guardian aren’t fools. They do know how the British electoral system works.

      • Lew 1.1.1

        Yeah, yeah, I know they do. And so do the Tories. That doesn’t change the fact that a nationwide horserace is no valid way to predict the outcome of an electorate-based FPP contest. Makes a nice headline, but.

        L

        • George D 1.1.1.1

          Absolutely Lew. And under NewLabour’s cynical and desperate attempt to gerrymander electoral reform – AV – the situation would be no more proportional.

  2. Lanthanide 2

    Also Gordon Brown has been making overtures to the Liberal Democrats, hoping to potentially form a coalition after the election if Labour doesn’t get a majority. A coalition != hung parliament.

    • Lew 2.1

      A Labour/Lib-Dem coalition government would be the best thing to happen to British politics this generation.

      L

      • gitmo 2.1.1

        No the best thing to happen to British politics this generation would be for someone to lock the doors of parliament while they were all inside and drop a bomb on the place.

        captcha Gas WTF

  3. SPC 3

    It’s a pity for Brown they don’t have preferential voting (Labour could remain in government if LD’s split their way by enough) or MMP (a Labour-LD coalition is the more likely).

    That would test the “tradition” of the largest party being in government.

    That said, it could still happen in FPP that the Tories lose while gaining the most votes – depending on who wins Epsom (how people vote tactically).

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