Britain could be heading for a hung Parliament, according to the latest Guardian poll.
With no more than three months to go until polling day, the Conservatives have fallen to 37%, down three. Meanwhile Labour’s support, at 30%, is up one, and eight points up on its absolute ICM bottom last May. The Liberal Democrats are unchanged on 20%, down one on last month’s Guardian poll.
All this suggests that Labour and the Lib Dems are holding steady while the Conservatives lose some ground to smaller parties, which are on a total of 13%. Nationalists are on 5%, Ukip and the Greens on 3% each and the BNP on 2%.
According to the Guardian, estimates of what these shares would mean for the parties on polling day vary, but a 7% lead is at the margins of what the Tories think they need to win a majority. One academic calculation suggests the result would leave Labour only 25 seats behind the Tories in a hung parliament, although any improved Tory performance in marginal seats would offset that.