Pollwatch: Reid Research poll completed 2020-07-24

Written By: - Date published: 9:27 pm, July 26th, 2020 - 89 comments
Categories: act, greens, jacinda ardern, Judith Collins, labour, national, nz first, polls, Shane Jones - Tags: , , , , , ,

Newshub reported an all-time high for the Labour Party in their Reid Research poll today, hitting 60.9% of the party vote. National were already calling it a rogue poll before it’s even announced. (it’s technically possible, but if it is rogue, it’s the type that fits well within trend and concurs nicely with current events, given the recent Roy Morgan poll released on the 14th, and their Falloon scandal and second leadership change of the year)

Newshub have also got approval (“performance”) ratings for the two leaders: (in video format only, sorry, but I’ve lifted it for those who prefer text)

Ardern at net 77.1% (+85.3% & -8.2%, question worded “Performing well/poorly”)

Collins at net 8.7% (+39.5% & -30.8%)

Collins may personally be happy to be above the waterline on net approval here given Simon Bridges’ first reported approval in the same poll was at a net -28.9% (+21.9% & -50.8%) on his second Reid Research poll back in February 2019. This puts Collins about 5% ahead on Preferred Prime Minister/name recognition from his starting point, and over 35 points ahead of Bridges at his start in terms of actual job approval- suggesting that National partisans like Collins or at least charitably think she’s doing her best, but many of the more centrist ones simply don’t trust her party to govern in its current state. It’s also notable that despite being better liked than Bridges, she’s still very divisive as a leader, a prospect that’s not good for National coming into an election that’s likely to be about unity and competence during a tough period, and new-look policy for the future like the recent release from the Green Party.

For the party vote analysis, we’re still sitting at a 100% chance of a majority Labour Government with these results, suggesting that reluctant swing voters at this stage are pouring into the party to avoid them having to work with coalition partners and provide a more centrist government.

The Greens simulated over the threshold in 89.7% of cases, giving the lie to Newshub’s reporting that they are “barely holding on by the skin of their teeth,” and ACT are just within reaching distance of the threshold at 3.3%, showing up in a handful of simulations to put them under threshold 99.9% of the time. NZF are always under, but we’ll get to them in a moment when I report on electorates. While Newshub has reported this switch in positions as new, that is again single-poll vision reporting from our TV news, as ACT has been ahead of NZF for three polls before this one, from both the other major polling orgs.

It’s also worth noting what ISN’T caught in this poll: Fieldwork was only open for one day after Iain Lees-Galloway’s resignation, so this may show a higher result for Labour than the upcoming Colmar Brunton/TVNZ poll will, given it’s still open for fieldwork right now, so we can be expecting another update within a week or two.

On the electorate front, given low National Party polling, the model predicts Shane Jones to win Northland, meaning Parliament looks a weeee bit different to Newshub’s predictions, as you can see on the right. With 121 MPs, the National Party is in overhang on this polling, with all list MPs out of Parliament. Based on current caucus rankings, that would mean the following MPs would not return/enter parliament, in order:

3 Paul Goldsmith
7 Chris Bishop
12 Michael Woodhouse
13 Nicola Willis
16 Melissa Lee
18 Nick Smith
19 Alfred Ngaro
21 Harete Hipango
24 Kanwaljit Singh Bakshi
28 Lawrence Yule
29 Denise Lee
30 Parmjeet Parmar
31 Brett Hudson
34 Jo Hayes
35 Matt King
39 Maureen Pugh
41 Agnes Loheni
42 Paulo Garcia
43 Bala Beeram
44 Catherine Chu
46 Dale Stephens
47 David Patterson
48 Hamish Campbell
50 Katie Nimon
51 Liam Kernaghan
52 Lincoln Platt
53 Lisa Whyte
54 Mark Crofskey
55 Mike Butterick
57 Nuwi Samarakone
59 Rima Nakhle
61 Tania Tapsell
63 William Wood

For Labour, things are looking a bit more rosy, with the following returning or entering on current polling- they may even be wondering if they need to re-open list nominations, with only 9-10 candidates left unelected at the end of the list on current polling:

7 Andrew Little
9 David Parker
11  Trevor Mallard
15  Kris Faafoi
17  Ayesha Verrall
19  Willie Jackson
20  Aupito William Sio
22  Vanushi Walters
27  Louisa Wall
30  Camilla Belich
32  Jan Tinetti
34  Marja Lubeck
35  Angie Warren-Clark
36  Willow-Jean Prime
38  Naisi Chen
39  Jo Luxton
40  Jamie Strange
41  Liz Craig
42  Ibrahim Omer
43  Duncan Webb
44  Anahila Kanongata’a-Suisuiki
46  Rachel Brooking
50  Angela Roberts
51  Shanan Halbert
54  Lemauga Lydia Sosene
56  Dan Rosewarne
60  Soraya Peke-Mason
61  Lotu Fuli
62  Sarah Pallett
63  Gaurav Sharma
64  Emily Henderson
65  Terisa Ngobi
66  Kerrin Leoni
67  Reuben Davidson
68  Zahra Hussaini
69  Janet Holborow
70  Romy Udanga
71  Ala’ Al-Bustanji
(72)  (Glen Bennett)*

*(If National wins Northland)

This is based on the following electorates changing hands, according to a Strong Distribution model of FPP polling based on the 2017 electorate results and this poll vs the 2017 Party Vote results:

Auckland Central: Labour (+6.9% margin)
East Coast: Labour (+0.04%)
Hutt South: Labour (+9.5%)
Maungakiekie: Labour (+5.6%)
Nelson: Labour (+0.4%)
Northland: NZF (+1.6%)
Takanini: Labour (based on PV leader)
Wairarapa: Labour (+4%)
Whanganui: Labour (+7.8%)

89 comments on “Pollwatch: Reid Research poll completed 2020-07-24 ”

  1. Matthew Whitehead 1

    Note on my electorate shift model: It's not intended to accurately call individual electorates. What it's supposed to do is get as close as possible to the right number of electorates, statistically, for each party, so it's possible that the electorate shifts or list calls will be slightly off, but the number of list/electorate seats should generally be reasonably accurate to within a couple of seats if it performs as expected.

    The government probably trend I show above is for the party list analysis is the result of a monte carlo simulation where I use random numbers to show a rough distribution of what the probability of various options within the margin of error actually looks like- this gives us a ballpark of various coalition options and the chance of medium parties (or former medium parties) being under/over threshold without even looking at the trend- and in context of the overall trend we can make better calls.

    The seat diagram half-pie is calculated by feeding Reid Research's vote percentages back into the official MMP calculator with my electorate shift assumptions included.

    • Peter 1.1

      I think that the comment "It's not intended to accurately call individual electorates. What it's supposed to do is get as close as possible to the right number of electorates, statistically, for each party" is a good proviso for the Northland electorate.

      I know Matt King has been doing some desperate things which often is an indicator of need, but realistically a lot of strange things would have to happen to see Shane Jones beat him.

      • Matthew Whitehead 1.1.1

        Yes, Northland's call is probably a direct result of me picking the Strong Transfer model from the UK, which is adjusted to prevent undercounting Liberal Democrats, over a simpler tranfer model, as the Strong Transfer Model protects some of New Zealand First's vote as a strong regional turnout above party vote lines, but doesn't do the same thing to National as noticably. I don't know if it's a reliable call or not, and I think we should wait until any electorate polling is released to feel sure on Northland. Frankly I have no intention of trying to accurately call individual electorates using any kind of party vote shift model, the idea here is to just have a more accurate basis for figuring out who'd be "in" or "out" on the party lists so you know who you get if you shift or maintain your party vote in a certain place.

        My model for electorate shift is based on one of the approaches from Electoral Calculus UK, but without the more complicated demographic regression data they use.

        • froggleblocks 1.1.1.1

          Is there ever any electorate polling released? The parties themselves must do it for key electorates, but any public news polls?

          • Matthew Whitehead 1.1.1.1.1

            In 2017, there was some lower-accuracy electorate polling done with 400 respondents over a very long fieldwork period. It's what led Dunne to resign.

  2. Matthew Whitehead 2

    Also worth noting from the Green List, this would return the current caucus less Gareth Hughes, who is retiring, and without his expected successor, Teanau Tuiono.

    • Chris 2.1

      What's the Greens' policy on relationships and benefits? All I can find from your link is removing disincentives to enter into a relationship, what ever that means.

  3. swordfish 3

    It’s also worth noting what ISN’T caught in this poll: Fieldwork was only open for one day after Iain Lees-Galloway’s resignation, so this may show a higher result for Labour than the upcoming Colmar Brunton/TVNZ poll

    Spot on … that was my initial thought as well (although probably 2 days rather than 1). Pollsters often reach 50% of their target in the first 2 or 3 days … so it's possible that only a tiny % of the fieldwork took place after the ILG story broke … something for pundits to bear in mind … still an extraordinary result, of course.

    House Effects suggest Colmar Brunton will be a little more National-friendly in any case … hence its later fieldwork dates (more completely encompassing the ILG fallout) may simply reinforce that pre-existing tendency further.

    … the upcoming Colmar Brunton/TVNZ poll will, given it’s still open for fieldwork right now, so we can be expecting another update within a week or two.

    Thursday 30 July 6pm … would be my guess.

  4. Tricledrown 4

    The dead cat bounce didn't happen for Collins as it happened for Muller .

    Collins only popular amongst die hard National supporters.

    • Matthew Whitehead 4.1

      I'd say Muller's initial change in tone helped National, but his personal popularity was terrible and he couldn't follow through with that change in tone.

      Collins isn't trying, which means although she's personally popular with her base, like Trump, she's also bleeding party support to Labour. She might be the only practical option now, but she’s demonstrably the wrong option for the times. Thankfully, IMO.

  5. ScottGN 5

    The problem for National is, that even if the Colmar-Brunton poll is more favourable to them, as it mostly is, it will inevitably be compared to the previous CB poll which appears to have overestimated National’s support (as compared to Reid Research and Roy Morgan) at the time. So if it shows a lower party vote percentage it will get reported as a drop in support. And so the general trend gets reinforced.

    • Hanswurst 5.1

      Well, they should compare Colmar Brunton polls with each other, but the media often seem just to compare whichever polls they think will make for the best story taken together.

    • Matthew Whitehead 5.2

      I don't think CB is "more favourable to National," and it honestly comes very close to RR. The one outlier you're looking at is when David Clark had to resign. From time to time they tend to overestimate whichever side is tending stronger at the time- we can see that in the second CB poll this year, for instance.

      In 2017, RR consistently gave higher results for National and New Zealand First, and CB to Labour. RR was closer to being correct. (RM overpolled the Greens but was largely very close to RR otherwise when their polls fell nearby each other)

      And polls don’t tend to lead public opinion in the way you’re suggesting. Coverage might, but polls not so much.

      • swordfish 5.2.1

        I don't think CB is "more favourable to National," and it honestly comes very close to RR.

        Shortly before the June 2020 Colmar Brunton, I identified those occasions (since the 2017 Change of Govt) when CB & RR fieldwork dates largely coincided (ranging from almost perfect overlap (at best) to a week apart (at worst)).

        The differential (mean) averages (CB figures compared with RR) were:

        Lab … down 2.8

        Green … equal

        NZF … up 0.9

        Govt Bloc … down 1.9

        Nat … up 2.5

        ACT … up 0.1

        Oppo Bloc … up 2.6

        Other … down 0.8

        Suggesting Colmar Brunton is indeed a little more Nat / Oppo Bloc-friendly (certainly since June 2019).

        Certainly wasn't the case during the Key Govt … but does appear to be now (yes … there are exceptions eg Jan/Feb 2018, May 2018 / May 2020 … not an iron law … but tendency).

        • Matthew Whitehead 5.2.1.1

          Those numbers don't even exceed the margins of error.

          How many occasions are you working on? do they overlap with events that are friendlier to the nats?

          • swordfish 5.2.1.1.1

            .
            At the time of my analysis (shortly before May 2020 CB release) the previous 4 consecutive 'crossover' periods had the Nats higher in CB than RR … the first (Feb 2019) only slightly … but the following three = by 7 points (June 2019), 3 points (Oct 2019), 3 points (Feb 2020) respectively. (margin of error = irrelevant… just interested in consistent House Effects … which are often of a mild nature, within MoE).

            Admittedly, the May CB raises some questions … although I've argued that it was probably bordering on Rogue status.

            .

            do they overlap with events that are friendlier to the nats?

            Don't think so … although I'd be happy to see any evidence for your intriguing argument that CB occasionally overestimate whichever side is tending stronger at the time. Interesting thesis but would need to see more convincing evidence.
            .

  6. Sacha 6

    Ardern at net 77.1% (+85.3% & -8.2%

    Astonishing.

    • observer 6.1

      And still misunderstood by the Nats' echo chamber.

      Even if the "rogue" underestimates National's support, only one National voter in three disapproves of the PM's performance. So let's patronise her or mock "Cindy", that'll work!

      • Sacha 6.1.1

        The bitterness of Nat backroom advisors has survived the recent leadership changes. Ego problem.

  7. greywarshark 7

    It's too early, always, for me to completely follow the stats, What happened to set Labour, briefly, low and Nats to rise briefly in response? Would it have been June – what happened then? Was it one of the Covid-19 happenings?

    • observer 7.1

      "Border bungles", that CB poll was taken in the week when they dominated the news.

      • ScottGN 7.1.1

        Yeah the last CB poll was at the same time as the media frenzy around Thelma and Disease’s tiki tour from Auckland to Wellington and of course Woodhouse’s legendary Homeless Man.

  8. Tricledrown 8

    National's desperation will show in Epsom .

    Pushing the National further to the right.

  9. Hanswurst 9

    In terms of NZ First, one possibility that I haven't seen mentioned is that NZ First could be very well placed to benefit from the phenomenon seen in 2002, where voters jumped to possible Labour support parties, the reason according conventional wisdom being that those voters wanted to put a brake on what seemed to be a certain Labour government after the election. The interesting question is how NZ First might go about picking up that support. I'm guessing that trying to poach swinging Labour votes by playing directly to Labour's strengths in government would not be seen as a viable option, so their best (and Peters' most natural) option might very well be to attack National and Collins' credibility and record, while portraying themselves as sensible, conservative and fiscally prudent.

    Assuming that the 25 – 30% support that National retains at present isn't National's core base support, but a coalescing of the base support for Liberal / Conservative policies, then National's vote could actually slip even further in favour of NZ First, while NZ first can safely assume that, as long as they look a reasonable bet for returning to parliament, more conservative Labour voters will probably gravitate to them closer to the election if Labour's support remains high (Where else can they go? Act? Not likely). If that happens, we may actually see NZ First poll quite significantly over 5% on election night.

    Similarly, if Labour's support remains high, more of the leftish Labour voters are likely to switch to the Greens if the latter look shaky on making the 5% threshold. Now, if Labour gets somewhere just below 50%, and both the Greens and NZ First get over 5%, I would guess that Ardern would try to put together a coalition with all three parties, but I would also expect NZ First to refuse and go into opposition, because that is where they have historically been seen most success, whereas their stints in government have seen them lose support, even to the point of falling out of parliament in 2008.

    • Sacha 9.1

      Winnie would have no veto power during coalition negotiations (eg: over Green MPs being in cabinet). Interesting to see how that works out for him.

      At least his handbraking would be out in the open on the opposition benches. Would also suit Shane Jones’ capability level to be moaning about things rather than having to work to make them happen.

    • observer 9.2

      There's certainly the historical precedent of swing voters not wanting to give any party an absolute majority (Key never got one, despite very high pre-election polling). The poll last night backs this up to a degree. Numbers in link:

      https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/07/newshub-reid-research-poll-voters-want-minor-parties-in-parliament.html

      But the idea that NZF could play the role of United Future from 2002 is questionable, I think.

      Dunne had no baggage. Voters looking for a moderating/centrist option could tick UF without having to take a cold shower afterwards. Winston polarises, Dunne was an empty vessel of "common sense". And important too: Dunne held an electorate.

      Ironically, if swing voters think the Greens are too left/radical, the best way to moderate Labour is to vote Labour. Counter-intuitive, but less risky than a wasted vote for NZF.

      • Hanswurst 9.2.1

        Dunne had no baggage.

        Apart from the fourth Labour government, and having campaigned in 1996 on being the one minor party that was a sure bet to cross the 5% threshold and put a brake on either major party, then singularly failing to do so (polling under 1%), before losing ground (and all but his own seat) at the 1999 election. There were plenty of reasons not to bet on Mr. Dunne in 2002, yet people did. Besides, there is no similar spoiler candidate in the forthcoming election; parliament is somewhat less diverse in terms of the number of options with some semblance of electoral viability in 2020 than it was in 2002. It's basically NZ First or nothing if you're looking for someone who is (at least superficially) centrist.

        Counter-intuitive, but less risky than a wasted vote for NZF.

        Well, I'm speculating that a vote for NZ First will look less like a wasted vote to more conservative Labour voters if it can first poach some of National's remaining support. More importantly, though, in guessing how electoral dynamics might play out, I'm less interested in the most sensible option for voters than the most likely, and voters are not likely to opt en masse for something counter-intuitive.

        • observer 9.2.1.1

          Come on, Dunne's recognition level among the public was minimal. Listing his record tells us nothing about his perceived negatives and positives, which is what "baggage" means.

          There really is no comparison to 30 years of Winston Peters, about whom nobody in NZ lacks an opinion.

    • Matthew Whitehead 9.3

      So, I've probably mentioned this on Twitter, (I post these there while I'm mid working on them and use them to gather any early corrections before beefing up the analysis to put them on TS) but while that's definitely how previous narrowings of the Labour vote went, we can actually see what happened in the trend here during the blip in that one CB poll: support went to National, the Greens, and ACT. This suggests that a lot of Labour's popularity right now is actually more centre-right swing voters who've moved tactically to Labour to try and make them a majority and lock out the Greens given they don't trust National very much at the moment.

      • froggleblocks 9.3.1

        They'll be in for disappointment when Ardern brings Greens into a coalition even if Labour got an outright majority anyway.

        • Matthew Whitehead 9.3.1.1

          That's possible, but I expect a coalition with the Greens where Labour has its own majority looks very different to one where Labour's in a minority, and even that looks different to one where the Greens are the only game in town to get their legislation passed.

  10. Robert Guyton 10

    New Zealand's unofficial poet laureate Victor Billot pens topical verse every Sunday. This week: an extraordinary week for the National Party.

    Toad’s Fall; and the Rise of Crusher

    All hail! Sad tidings O countrymen and womyn!

    Or tidings of such dank complexion, we stare witless.

    In the cold grey of dawn, a dead raven

    tumbl’d earthwards from the heavens,

    claws clutching a parchment of bitter import.

    O woe! O gnashing of teeth!

    Lord Toad is fallen.

    Toad the Brief! Lord of the Bay!

    We salute your concise efforts nonetheless.

    Ere since the lopping of Simon the Unfortunate,

    it was written in the stars in bloody hand:

    from treachery, no good can be enjoined.

    Our allies scatter’d and undone:

    the Witch of the Northern Boag

    chained and raving in the House of Bedlam;

    Michael d’Outhouse, chest deep

    in the Slough of Muck, many leagues hence;

    Youngling Hamish of the Southern March

    in quest of opportunities in the private sector.

    Even Nikki, fairest elf of all, has depart’d her post

    at the shadowed gates of Sauron’s Tower.

    Lost! All is lost!

    Yet even as we stumble in the fog of defeat,

    the earth trembleth under distant hooves.

    Sound the bugles! Crash the drums!

    On her legendary winged steed Oravida

    approacheth Lady Judith the Merciless,

    flanked by her doughty lieutenants

    Friar Gerry and Seymour of Remmers.

    In these extraordinary years,

    hope is never friendless;

    and battle will be joined once more!

    In the vanguard, Baron Luxon follows,

    his half smile widening by a measure

    as doth the waxing moon;

    his loyalty pledged to whoever,

    for the time being, at least.

    Victor Billot has previously been moved to write odes for Garrick Tremain, Todd Muller, Donald Trump, Prince Andrew, David Clark, Paula Bennett and Hamish Walker.

    *Made with the support of Creative New Zealand *

  11. novacastrian 11

    It appears many here are getting all hot'n'huffy regarding this poll which appears highly questionable at best. Even the Prime Minister appeared somewhat sceptical on the Mike Hosking interview regarding the poll results. Article in Stuff this morning basically echoes the same, indicating the poll was near statically impossible at being correct.

    I think it's a given Labour will win the election, however by a healthy, but also slender margin. This being largely based on the Jacindamania popularity factor, rather than the overall party performance, which has been genuinely underwhelming in many aspects. If it wasn't for stars like Megan Woods, the virtual Minister for Everything these days assisting the PM, then I feels things could be certainly much grimmer for Labour.

    I still maintain both the Greens and NZ First have seen their final curtain call politically, with both exiting politics this election. The wildcard here is ACT, my gut tells me they are harvesting many votes from those disenfranchised by the major parties, in particular National's. They also appear to be gaining support from those centralist's who are not very keen on Collins.

    Still, love her or hate her, Collins is a bit of a hardarse who'll make the Prime Minister work for her election victory.

    • Andre 11.1

      Keep telling yourself all that. It will numb the pain eventually.

      As for the poll being "near statically impossible at being correct", who was it that said that? Gerry Brownlee? You really think he's got enough statistics expertise for that pronouncement to be taken seriously? Or statics expertise, for that matter?

      • Wensleydale 11.1.1

        But… he was a woodwork teacher!

        • Andre 11.1.1.1

          Indeed. And all the woodwork I ever knew, I learned from my statistics teacher.

          • Poission 11.1.1.1.1

            Measure three times, cut once?

            • Andre 11.1.1.1.1.1

              That I'm likely to be out by 15mm or more 3 cuts in a thousand, 10mm or more roughly one in twenty, and I'm only gonna be within 5mm 68% of the time. And that I'd better learn to deal with it.

    • Matthew Whitehead 11.2

      The poll is on-trend and I don't particularly entertain the idea it's questionable, but there should be a CB coming out soon. (I don't usually know when it's coming, but I was polled for this one) This poll likely reflects a local low point for National between the Muller resignation and Falloon, so I expect a slight bounce to CB again, but that's about timing, not about lean or reliability. CB should catch a little of the Greens’ campaign launch, all of ILG's resignation fallout, and Collins' first moves as leader.

      I’ve addressed claims the RR/Newshub poll is rogue on social media here:
      https://twitter.com/MJWhitehead/status/1287536943404744704

    • UncookedSelachimorpha 11.3

      " I still maintain both the Greens and NZ First have seen their final curtain call politically, with both exiting politics this election. "

      Dunno about that. NZF is highly focussed (and always has been) on a single person, Winnie. The Greens involve more of a broader social movement and direction.

    • Chris 11.4

      I've heard better commentary at the pub.

  12. gingercrush 12

    Polls are only as accurate as what side it goes in your favour. Trend is ultimately not going Nationals way.

    Such a poll result/trend ultimately opens up way more electorate seats potentially going Labour's way. Most North Island provincial seats will be up for play as will the Hamilton seats. Possibly even some South Island electorates.

    Also agree there isnt a party in a position to play spoiler at moment other than some National party votes going to ACT. If MMP is ever to get a government with one party having a majority. This is it's best chance. Key was in a position to do so but the vote ended up being softer than polls suggested and voters were not confident giving them a majority just as they were not confident giving Clark a majority. Jacinda is a possible exception to this. Still think there is room for some of their vote to go elsewhere but will be dependent on so many factors.

    • Matthew Whitehead 12.1

      I may have to do an article to remind people why Majority Governments Are Bad, Mmmmkay?

      We really shouldn't want one. The reason we switched to MMP was about the unchecked power in our system for majority governments, not just about giving smaller parties a fair go.

      • Just Is 12.1.1

        You missed the real reason why NZ changed to MMP, it was simply that the major parties, National and Labour could no longer achieve a majority, the last 2 National terms under Muldoon governed with a minority, one of those terms they only had 42% of the vote but won all of the seats (gerrymandering).

        MMP was introduced to return democracy back to politics, the newly elected Govt had to have a minimum of 50.1% of votes to take power.

        • DS 12.1.1.1

          MMP was about punishing the political classes for 1975-1993.

          • DS 12.1.1.1.1

            Seriously. The Nats in 1990 had an overwhelming mandate (to stop the Revolution…). The problem wasn't that the Government was undemocratic, but rather that it was abusing its unbridled power.

            • Matthew Whitehead 12.1.1.1.1.1

              The problem was that it was both, if you want to view those as different. (I think abuse of power is fundamentally undemocratic, myself, but you possibly mean "unproportional" when you say "undemocratic?")

              I also disagree with the idea that the Nats had a mandate for policies like Ruthanasia. A mandate isn't just about how strongly you're supported, it's about which ideas you campaigned on to gain that support and whether you have enough support for the ideas to make it reasonable to pass them individually in government.

              • swordfish

                I also disagree with the idea that the Nats had a mandate for policies like Ruthanasia. A mandate isn't just about how strongly you're supported, it's about which ideas you campaigned on to gain that support

                Isn't that precisely what DS is arguing ? … that the Nats had an overwhelming mandate to stop the Revolution in 1990 (as in the Rogernomics Revolution) … but subsequently betrayed that mandate on a massive scale.

        • Matthew Whitehead 12.1.1.2

          MMP governments haven't always commanded a majority of votes either, (remember, the discarded party vote, electorate winners/minor parties, and overhang seats can all add up to a fair margin for a majority in parliament to be different than a majority of the popular vote) so it's not a particularly salient criticism. FPP elections were deeply disproportionate for the major parties, sure, but that's a different thing than not having >50% of voters onside.

  13. Robert Guyton 13

    "Our last poll was the death knell for Simon Bridges – it the reason he was rolled. This poll is far worse for National and Judith Collins."

    https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/07/newshub-reid-research-poll-the-destruction-of-national-under-judith-collins-as-party-sinks-to-25-percent.html?

  14. ScottGN 14

    Tova says that when she first told Collins the poll numbers the Nat Leader accepted they were accurate. Quite a different take to the party’s response when the numbers were made public.

    https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/07/nz-election-2020-why-labour-s-polling-is-at-a-record-high-according-to-jacinda-ardern.html

    • Peter 14.1

      That sort of suggests that Judith Collins in the comments I've heard her make about the results was being dishonest. She wouldn't be, would she?

  15. Sacha 15

    Those internal Nat numbers? https://i.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/opinion/122253298/nationals-polling-chooks-come-home-to-roost

    It is understood that the National Party's internal polling has National more than 10 points higher, and Labour’s more than 10 points lower. Even if that figure is accurate, it still puts Labour around 50 per cent of the vote and puts the Collins leadership at a furniture-saving 35 per cent.

    It is saying something that the Nats are clinging onto a scenario that has Ardern Labour still nudging around 50 per cent of the realised vote, once wasted vote is stripped away.

    • Matthew Whitehead 15.1

      I don't credit polls that aren't released publicly. Unless curia wants to release a selection of its most recent polls- let's say at least the most recent three- anything it chooses to release or leak is cherry-picking and not worth discussion.

  16. Chris T 16

    Pretty funny ACT being ahead of Winston and him looking like brown bread

    • Matthew Whitehead 16.1

      Even more "funny" is that even with National absolutely imploding ACT can't manage more than 6 MPs in polling. :S

  17. nzsage 17

    Seems like Hosking has his head in the sand:

    "Never before have polls been less real, less relevant, or less accurate"

    Rarely read his stuff but was intrigued to see his spin on it given his darlings are in the poo.

    • Incognito 17.1

      I thought Mike was having a rare moment of introspection and self-reflection.

      • nzsage 17.1.1

        Only when he sticks his head up his a#$@.

        • I Feel Love 17.1.1.1

          Ha! NZsage … it does make you wonder what NZ Hosking, Brownlee etc are looking at, the "present lot" may have flaws, but I can't see how or why the "other bunch" are better, I just see sniping, hyperbole, conspiracy & anger.

        • Matthew Whitehead 17.1.1.2

          I really don't think that sort of comment is necessary. Hoskings is enough of a joke without resorting to that kind of more explicit anatomical humour.

  18. Dennis Frank 18

    Richard Harman's reaction to the poll here (and I cite his point about tactical voting by Natrats deserting the sinking ship): https://www.politik.co.nz/2020/07/27/nationals-polling-points-to-wrangle-over-list/

    The Newshub July poll in 2017 showed NZFirst on 13 per cent; they slumped to 7.2 per cent on election, much of their vote appearing to go to Labour. But that does raise a question. And it is a question which worries the party’s campaign strategists.

    If the public polls show the party cannot win (which last nights does) then might that provoke a further movement out of National to NZ First to “keep Labour honest” or to prevent the Greens from being part of the next Government. That is now the danger for National; that voters might write them off and start searching around for tactical votes to prevent Labour from governing alone.

    Tactical voting might also enhance both the ACT and Green votes. If that happens, National will worry that they could see a repeat of 2002 when they won only 20.93 per cent of the vote.

    • Matthew Whitehead 18.1

      So, when Labour first polled above 50%, I made the same argument and assumed we were on track for an imminent narrowing below 50%. At a record 60% and with the trend strongly above 50%, this is actually something completely new and unprecedented in NZ polling. Every rise above 50% before has been a one-poll blip, and we've never had a period where polling un-narrows back well above 50% again. I'm very hopeful that things will narrow before the election, but I don't take that for granted, and I don't buy the idea that all three major pollsters have it wrong, and that the one CB poll where Labour were being absolutely bollocked in the media is somehow a more correct and true interpretation of what's going on. Any stable polling above 48% is majority government territory given typical discarded party vote levels.

      Farrar's internals might have been accurate under Key and English- I say might. But that's no reason to trust them now when the methodologies to keep polling accurate have drastically changed and require internet panels for the best results, and that's also no reason to trust his figures when he says he's got National closer to 30%: unless he releases the full party vote report for several polls in a row, it's absolute hearsay and potentially cherry-picking.

      I would say that we're already in Tactical Vote territory, and what we're actually getting is centre-right swing voters tactically changing intention to vote for Labour, because they don't want a left-wing government moderated by a more left-wing coalition partner. They want an unstable majority government that overreaches and doesn't have a strong Green Party helping them stabilize.

      • observer 18.1.1

        Obviously centre-right tactical voters can't stop people voting Green, so they can't prevent a Lab-Green government, only the relative strength of the parties in it.

        I don't expect Labour to govern alone anyway, but if they had to, I don't see "unstable majority government" as the outcome. Ardern/Robertson are in charge, and they are instinctively "stable" and risk-averse, and I wouldn't see them changing radically. That's about character more than numbers.

        If we did have a majority Ardern government, it would disappoint those who want a steamroller , a Rogernomics in reverse, and in any case it would almost certainly not hold an absolute majority for more than one term. MMP's constraints are about the next election as much as the gov't of the day.

        • observer 18.1.1.1

          I guess my point is that we can only choose from the limited menu available. The absence of potential "moderating" partners is a deeper problem, relating to thresholds and the various failings of minor parties.

          In theory, having no majority gov't is better. In practice, majority government is a lesser problem than relying on Shane Jones not to be a jerk.

          • Matthew Whitehead 18.1.1.1.1

            I'm happy to get rid of New Zealand First, don't get me wrong. But I think the cancer of majority government and the cancer of New Zealand First are roughly equal enemies.

        • UncookedSelachimorpha 18.1.1.2

          " Rogernomics in reverse "

          I'd vote for that!

      • swordfish 18.1.2

        At a record 60% and with the trend strongly above 50%, this is actually something completely new and unprecedented in NZ polling. Every rise above 50% before has been a one-poll blip

        Do What ?

        National support fluctuated between 50-60% for 20 consecutive TV3 Reid Research polls between Feb 2009- Nov 2011 (without doing the calculations … it looks from sight to have averaged in mid-50s throughout that long sustained period).

        Over the same broad timeline, the Nats ranged from 53-57% in the Colmar Brunton (Feb 2009-April 2010) (8 consecutive CB Polls), then fell to late 40s, then back gently fluctuating between 50-56% (Sep 2010-Nov 2011) (12 consecutive polls).

        • Matthew Whitehead 18.1.2.1

          Let's see… you're definitely right about polling over 50% consistently, so I retract and concede, (I've been monitoring closely since about 2014 so that's what I usually talk about when I do it from memory, whoops!) but I would say that Labour being this high is definitely new, and that anyone polling over 60% this close to an election is absolutely unprecedented. The closest is National polling 57.4% about one and a half months out in that same contest.

          If we call that a 2.5% difference from 2011, (It’s more like 3.5%, but let’s allow some room for error) and bring that forward to National’s election result expecting similar narrowing, we’d get Labour at 49.8% of the vote. That’s a majority at 62 seats, even if we give all the lost votes to ACT. (results from hypothetical)

          • Matthew Whitehead 18.1.2.1.1

            The "safety point" of return to minority government for me is if Labour falls below 48%, (see hypothetical here, where Labour loses 2% extra to the Greens and just barely needs them or New Zealand First) but at this stage I'm seriously considering that voters are heading in a different direction so far. 46% as about the safety point at which NZ First are not a viable coalition partner if we assume their vote doesn't recover above 2% but they win Northland. (changing up the allocations between parties sometimes gives them an extra MP at 2% given how close they are to the breakpoint)

      • xanthe 18.1.3

        "They want an unstable majority government that overreaches and doesn't have a strong Green Party helping them stabilize."

        eeekkk from what planet did you just arrive?

        • Matthew Whitehead 18.1.3.1

          Planet "I remember the history of Rogernomics and Ruthanasia and do not consider those governments 'stable.'" Then again for me stability is about stability for the country not for the government.

          • xanthe 18.1.3.1.1

            "I remember the history of Rogernomics and Ruthanasia and do not consider those governments 'stable.'"

            ahh thats a fair point re labour!

            The greens however are not in any sense stable and should not be allowed anywhere near any levers. As labour strategists are well aware

  19. Ken 19

    I don't buy the line that they're pushing……"Labour is a poorly performing government with only Jacinda to keep them afloat".

    Performance is a relative thing, and it's beyond doubt that National couldn't run a cake stall properly – let alone a government.

    So by comparison, the Government is performing like a well maintained Ferrari, while the opposition is performing like an old wreck rusting away in a paddock.

    • Just Is 19.1

      Ken

      That's pretty much on the money, the ones criticizing couldn't achieve same performance if they copied everything.

    • Matthew Whitehead 19.2

      Labour is IMO a well-performing government overall, but there's a big gap between its top-5 or so performing Ministers (Woods, Hipkins, Little, Parker, and Faafoi are who I'm thinking of- there might be more but they might be in positions where my distaste for Labour's policies in that area are perhaps clouding my judgement) and the tier of junior ministers working their way up, or, in at least one case, bungling their way through, and a lot of Ministers who have probably hit their capability ceiling in their current roles, at least so long as there's not a smarter place to reassign them to. Were the opposition not completely bereft of the senior talent they think Labour doesn't have enough of, this might be an effective criticism.

      I should also point out that at least 2 of the best performers are also in the Green Party, (if not all three Ministers and the under-secretary) and that if we want a Ferrari, we should probably deliver a minority result to Labour, and a strong 10%+ Green result so we can get 4+ Green ministers there and some new, highly effective backbenchers from both parties online to replace the ones we're promoting to be junior ministers in coalition. That will give some breathing room to Labour's heavy lifters and hopefully give them an excuse to weed out the Willie Jacksons of their caucus from ministries and bring in some real junior heavyweights as associates, specialized ministers or under-secretaries, like Dr Ayesha Varrell, Louisa Wall, Deborah Russel, Kiri Allan, Jan Logie, Marama Davidson, Chlöe Swarbrick, and so on.

      But National running this line is just an own goal in a party where, outside the leadership, the only experience they have left after 2020 Simon Bridges and maybe Nick Smith, if they get enough list seats. What are they gonna do, give all the portfolios to Bridges and Brownlee? At the moment they're struggling to even get their Finance Spokesperson elected while still bringing in a potential coalition partner.

      • Anne 19.2.1

        I think you will find Deborah Russell is up for a hefty portfolio next term. She is extremely capable and smart – in fact I would place her alongside Megan Woods when it comes to ability.

  20. DS 20

    Obvious point: if 61%-25% is any where near accurate (and I am severely sceptical), the model's predictions of electorates break down. Seriously, at that result? National winds up with two electorates south of Taranaki-King Country (Southland and Selwyn), and both are marginal.

    In short, there won't be an overhang, because National won't be winning 32 electorates if they lose the party vote by 36%. They'll be winning a dozen, most of which would be in Auckland.

    • Matthew Whitehead 20.1

      2002, National's worst-ever performance, about 4% worse than this, had them retain 21 electorates. The model is somewhat friendly to National in terms of electorate wins because it's an electorate shift model, which relies on 2017 data when they run a hugely successful electorate campaign well out of line with their party vote. (note that there were only 69 electorates at the time, and that 3 were won by minor parties, as opposed to 72 and a projected 2 for 2020. In 1999, National won 22/67 electorates, with 4 going to minor parties, and won 30% of the vote, but in 2005, they also won about 30%, and won 31/69 electorates with 7 going to minors. Over time, National has won more of the electorate seats without winning more of the Party Vote, so if I'm being overly friendly to them, I'm reasonably confident it's not by much)

      Some of this is also that I don’t associate a strong winning vote with getting additional votes on their own- the transition model requires some other party to lose those votes first, and despite looking like a wipeout due to how weak ACT is, this isn’t actually the weakest National’s ever been yet.

      • DS 20.1.1

        Number of electorates won isn't a function of National voteshare. It's a function of National voteshare relative to Labour voteshare.

        National was 20% behind in 2002, when it won 21 electorates. Here, it's 36% behind. Hence it being knocked down to a dozen. Or worse… there are some electorates where Labour simply can't gain an extra 30% due to saturation… which means the biggest swings have to be in safe Nat seats.

  21. Austringer 21

    Early days, the Nats will claw back minimal 10% possible and probable more, so no champagne yet, or Preseco, for the less affluent. Beer for us most, casual//, minimum hour and waged to celebrate with, minding with care the cost of power the rent and food costs. So on yer own, no one to pass the buck, or a party necessity to rule, with seeing, it will be best served N.Z. First, the partner to ensure your third term, minding you get this second coming.

    Am old school socialist, in this new corporate exploit of our world I do understand being a serious admire of Engels, that not always compromise delivers the best care.

  22. Paul 22

    I'm interested. Where are the cut off lines if National score 30%, 35%, 40%?

  23. Brian Tregaskin 23

    LOL Newstalk ZB must be worried —I heard an interview with the head of UMR polling on drive time a few minutes before 6pm on my way home from work –and lol they cut it out and replaced it with ads before 6pm. Whats up? Im guessing they don't want people to replay the interview because UMR head says he trusts the TV3 Poll Reid Research poll as a fairly accurate snapshot give or take 5% each way.

    https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-demand/week-on-demand/

  24. Brian Tregaskin 24

    For whats its worth-kiwis-trust-labour-more-than-national-to-run-the-economy

    https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/07/newshub-reid-research-poll-kiwis-trust-labour-more-than-national-to-run-the-economy.html

    look at the poll trend June 7 2002 50 days before Election on 27 July 2002
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2002_New_Zealand_general_election
    we afre 54 days out to 2020 election

  25. Brian Tregaskin 25

    Newstalk ZB are running scared -see my comment about deleting interviews and replacing with ads two above .

    Bingo what do we have here

    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12351394

    COMMENT:

    Was it a rogue poll?

    Without another time-exact poll to compare it to, it's hard to know for sure, but the available facts suggest it is rogue.

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  • Valentine’s Day went unnoticed on the Beehive website – but it is not “baa, humbug” to celeb...
    Buzz from the Beehive None of our ministers – a quick check with the Beehive website suggests – found cause to mention, let along celebrate, Valentine’s Day. But two ministers – Agriculture Minister Todd McClay and Rural Communities Minister Mark Patterson – ensured that National Lamb Day did not pass ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    5 days ago
  • Are You A Leftist?
    Nothing To Lose But Our Chains: The emancipatory movement which the Left, understood correctly, has always been, cannot accommodate those who are only able to celebrate one group’s freedom by taking it from another. The expectation, always, among leftists, is that liberty enlarges us. That striking-off a person’s shackles not ...
    5 days ago
  • An unlawful directive
    An interesting question in the Parliamentary written questions feed today, from Jan Tinetti to the Minister of Education: Has she or her Office directed the Ministry of Education to not release Official Information Act material prior to the full twenty working days, if so, why? Given that ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • I’ve been doing this all wrong
    Here are six words that are not easy to say but god it can feel good when you finally say them:I’ve been doing this all wrongFive years ago today I said to myself:What if I'm doing this all wrong?Five years ago today I said to Karren: I think I’m going to ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    5 days ago
  • New study suggests the Atlantic overturning circulation AMOC “is on tipping course”
    This is a re-post from RealClimate by Stefan Rahmstorf A new paper was published in Science Advances today. Its title says what it is about: “Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course.” The study follows one by Danish colleagues which made headlines last July, likewise looking for early warning signals ...
    5 days ago
  • Valentines from ACT.
    Some of us make a big deal out of Valentine’s Day. We’ll buy the flowers, eye watering though the price spike might be. Say the things we should be saying anyway, although diminished by being scheduled for delivery. Some of us will even write long free-form newsletters with declarations of ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    5 days ago
  • Tax cuts paid for by 13k more kids in poverty
    MSD advised the government that the indexation change it passed under urgency last night is likely to put around 7,000 extra children (and potentially up to 13,000) into poverty. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The Government has reverted indexation for main beneficiaries to price inflation from wage inflation under ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • Fuel Tax Fight and Rail Fail update
    The two stories we covered at the start of the week continue to be in the headlines so it’s worth looking at the latest for each of them. Regional Fuel Tax Mayor Wayne Brown promised some ‘argy-bargy’ over the government’s decision to cancel the Regional Fuel Tax and he’s ...
    5 days ago
  • Climate Change: Arsonists
    Today, a major fire broke out on the Port Hills in Ōtutahi. Like its 2017 predecessors, it is almost certainly exacerbated by climate change. And it is still burning. The present government did not start the fire. But they piled the tinder high last time they were in power, gutting ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • I don’t know!
    http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/73411 7 examples And who actually makes the decisions? Vladimir Putin: I don’t know. America is a complex country, conservative on the one hand, rapidly changing on the other. It’s not easy for us to sort it all out.   Tucker Carlson: Do you think Zelensky has the freedom to negotiate the settlement to this conflict? Vladimir Putin: I don’t know the details, of course it’s difficult for me to judge, but ...
    6 days ago
  • Fresh thinkers
    Fresh thinking will always give you hope.It might be the kind that makes you smite your brow, exclaiming: Why didn't we think of that! It's obvious!It might be the kind that makes you go: Dude you’re a genius.Sometimes it will simply be Wayne Brown handing Simeon Brown his weasel ass ...
    More than a fieldingBy David Slack
    6 days ago
  • It is not about age, it is about team.
    Much attention has been directed at Joe Biden’s mental lapses and physical frailty. Less attention has been spent on Donald Trump’s cognitive difficulties and physical limitations, with most focus being devoted to his insults and exaggerated claims (as if they … Continue reading ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    6 days ago
  • ROBERT MacCULLOCH: Fletcher Building – it is time to break up NZ’s most useless company.
    Robert MacCulloch writes –  Gosh, the CEO of Fletcher Building, Ross Taylor, says today’s announcement of a half-year loss of $120 million for the company is “disappointing” and was “heavily impacted” by the Convention Centre losses. He must be crying all the way to the bank (to quote Las ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    6 days ago
  • Mortgage rates seen high for even longer
    Government and borrower hopes for early mortgage cost relief look likely to be thwarted. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: Stronger-than-expected US inflation data out overnight is expected to delay the first US Federal Reserve rate cut into the second half of 2024, which in turn would hold mortgage rates ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    6 days ago
  • Member’s Day
    Today is a Member's Day, the first of the new Parliament. And to start the Parliament off, there's a bunch of first readings. A bunch of other bills have been postponed, so first up is Duncan Webb's District Court (Protecting Judgment Debtors on Main Benefit) Amendment Bill, followed by Katie ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • Three Waters go down the legislative gurgler – but what should we make of Local Water Done Well?
    Buzz from the Beehive Local Government Minister Simeon Brown – it seems fair to suppose – was flushed with success after the repeal of Labour’s divisive and unpopular Three Waters legislation. As he explained, repealing this legislation is a necessary first step in implementing his government’s Local Water Done Well ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    6 days ago
  • Gordon Campbell on five of Luxon’s Gaza absurdities
    Earlier this week, PM Christopher Luxon met with 48 public service CEOs to make sure they were on board with his plans to cut spending on public services so that National can proceed to give the revenue away to those New Zealanders least in need. This wasn’t the only absurdity ...
    6 days ago
  • Love and the Fairer Sex.
    This morning I woke early with many thoughts in my head of things said, events of the week, things that matter. I’m afraid none of them involved Seymour, Willis, or Luxon so if you’re looking for something political maybe take the day off and come back tomorrow. You won’t find ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    6 days ago
  • He stood up to Muldoon and Lange and the Fji army
    Gerald Hensley, who died aged 88 on Saturday, was the key official who presided over the tumultuous events that followed the election of the Lange Labour Government in 1984. He was also instrumental in helping a key Fijian official escape the country during one of the 1987 coups. A diplomat ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    7 days ago
  • At a glance – Has Arctic sea ice returned to normal?
    On February 14, 2023 we announced our Rebuttal Update Project. This included an ask for feedback about the added "At a glance" section in the updated basic rebuttal versions. This weekly blog post series highlights this new section of one of the updated basic rebuttal versions and serves as a ...
    7 days ago
  • Halo dunia!
    Selamt datang di WordPress. Ini adalah pos pertama Anda. Sunting atau hapus, kemudian mulai menulis! ...
    1 week ago
  • The PM wants a turnaround
    As a treat today I have lined up a favourite in the music slot. I love Turnaround, I cannot hear it too often, and I feel in need of a treat when I make myself listen to the Prime Minister the way I did this morning.He too, has favourites that ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    1 week ago
  • The PM wants a turnaround
    As a treat today I have lined up a favourite in the music slot. I love Turnaround, I cannot hear it too often, and I feel in need of a treat when I make myself listen to the Prime Minister the way I did this morning.He too, has favourites that ...
    More than a fieldingBy David Slack
    1 week ago
  • ELE LUDEMANN: Trusting locals
    Ele Ludemann writes- A government-knows-best and predilection for central control was another unfortunate feature of the 2017-2023 Labour governments. One of the worst polices as a result of that was what started as Three Waters and became several more. The National-led government is much more trusting of locals ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    1 week ago
  • Legislation to flush away Three Waters has become a certainty – but we must wait for details on th...
    Buzz from the Beehive A  three-day information drought was broken, just after Point of Order published yesterday’s Buzz from the Beehive, and two significant ministerial announcements were made. First, the Budget will be delivered on 30 May, telling us which genuine savings have been made by eliminating waste and which ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    1 week ago
  • Rise of the Lobbyists.
    An unpopular opinion, I love Auckland.Not so much the transport or the house prices - those are pretty dire. But there’s a lot to like. We’ve a vibrant, multicultural city in a beautiful location with, mostly, friendly locals. From the native bush of the Waitakeres to the Gulf islands, it’s ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    1 week ago
  • The holes in National’s water reform pipes
    Young renters just have to watch on as pipes keep failing and the Government and councils point fingers at each other, because all the incentives are for ratepayers to block rates increases, water meters, water charges and the creation of new entities. File Photo: Lynn GrievesonTL;DR: The National-ACT-NZ First coalition ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 week ago
  • After years of stability, Antarctica is losing ice
    This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by SueEllen Campbell Until recently, Antarctica’s ice has seemed surprisingly stable. In contrast to the far north, the southern continent’s massive ice sheets, glaciers, ice shelves (ice that floats on the ocean), and seasonal ice appeared to be reliably frozen: Enough snow fell ...
    1 week ago
  • Auckland’s Persistent Rail Issues
    Over the last few weeks in our weekly roundup we’ve commented on the frequent delays and cancellations that have occurred on the rail network this year since the rail network went back into full operation on the 22-Jan – with Kiwirail proclaiming they had ‘successfully delivered summer holiday infrastructure upgrades ...
    1 week ago

  • Government delivers greater freedom and choice for sick New Zealanders
    The coalition government is delivering on its commitment to making principled decisions by getting rid of red tape that doesn’t make sense and allowing sick New Zealanders greater freedom and choice to purchase effective cold and flu medicines. A bill amending the Misuse of Drugs Act 1975 is being introduced, and changes to the Medicines ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 hours ago
  • Government begins reset of welfare system
    The Coalition Government is taking early action to curb the surge in welfare dependency that occurred under the previous government by setting out its expectations around employment and the use of benefit sanctions, Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston says. In 2017, 60,588 sanctions were applied to beneficiaries who ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    23 hours ago
  • State of the Nation
    Ka nui te mihi kia koutou. Kia ora, good morning, talofa, malo e lelei, bula vinaka, da jia hao, namaste, sat sri akal, assalamu alaikum. Thank you for coming to my first State of the Nation as Prime Minister. Thank you for coming to a speech where I don’t just ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • West Coast tourism attractions officially open
    Regional Development Minister Shane Jones will attend the official opening of two highly anticipated tourism projects on the West Coast today – Pike29 Memorial Track, dedicated to the memory of the Pike River miners, and Pounamu Pathway. “The Pike29 Memorial Track is a way to remember and honour the men ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Independent ferry service advisory group in place
    Appointments to the Ministerial Advisory Group tasked with providing independent advice and assurance on the future of KiwiRail’s inter-island ferry service have been made, State Owned Enterprises Minister Paul Goldsmith says. “It’s important for New Zealand that KiwiRail is focused on ensuring safe, resilient, and reliable ferry services over the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Joint statement from the Prime Ministers of Australia, Canada, and New Zealand
    The Prime Ministers of Australia, Canada and New Zealand today issued the following statement on reports of Israel’s planned military operation in Rafah. We are gravely concerned by indications that Israel is planning a ground offensive into Rafah.   A military operation into Rafah would be catastrophic. About 1.5 million Palestinians ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Govt will deliver on expanded breast screening
    The coalition Government has made the first steps in delivering on its promise to  extend free breast screening to women aged 70-74, Health Minister Shane Reti says. “As part of the 100 day plan, the Government has now met with officials and discussed what is needed in order for the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Government announces woolshed roadshows in support of sheep farmers
    The Government celebrates National Lamb Day (15 February 24) and congratulates sheep farmers on the high-quality products they continue to produce. Agriculture Minister McClay hosted bipartisan celebrations of National Lamb Day with industry representatives at Parliament this week to mark the anniversary of the first frozen lamb exports that left ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Speech: Address to the NZ Economics Forum
    It’s great to be back at the New Zealand Economics Forum. I would like to acknowledge everyone here today for your expertise and contribution, especially the Pro Vice-Chancellor, Head of the Waikato Management School, economists, students and experts alike. A year has passed since I was last before you, and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Government tackling high construction costs
    The Government is focused on reducing sky-high construction costs to make it more affordable to build a home, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says.  Stats NZ data shows the cost of building a house has increased by 41 per cent since 2019, making housing even more unaffordable for Kiwi ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Labour’s Three Waters legislation repealed
    The Coalition Government’s legislative plan to address longstanding issues with local water infrastructure and service delivery took an important step today, with the repeal of Labour’s divisive and unpopular Three Waters legislation, Local Government Minister Simeon Brown says. “Repealing this legislation is a necessary first step in implementing our Local ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Cost of living support for beneficiary households
    The Coalition Government is delivering on its commitment to ease the cost-of-living by increasing main benefit rates in line with inflation and ensuring the Minimum Family Tax Credit threshold remains aligned with this change, Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston says. The Social Security (Benefits Adjustment) and Income Tax ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Government announces agriculture delegations to better support Primary sector
    The coalition Government has announced ministerial delegations to support key areas across the Primary sector to deliver for New Zealand’s food and fibre sector, Agriculture Minister Todd McClay announced today. “I will be supported in my roles as Minister of Agriculture, Trade, Forestry and Hunting and Fishing, by three Associate ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Waikato MoU reinforces Govt’s commitment to increase NZ doctors
    The Government has taken an important step forward in addressing a critical shortage of New Zealand-trained doctors, with today’s signing of a Memorandum of Understanding for a third medical school, Minister of Health Dr Shane Reti has announced.  “Today’s signing by the Ministry of Health and the University of Waikato ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Speech – Lunar New Year 2024
    Annyeonghaseyo, greetings and welcome all. It is my pleasure as the Minister for Ethnic Communities to welcome you to the first Lunar New Year Event in Parliament. Thank you to our emcees for greeting us in the different languages that represent the many cultures that celebrate the Lunar New Year. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • More funding to Hawke’s Bay and Tairāwhiti
    Urgent work to clean-up cyclone-affected regions will continue, thanks to a $63 million boost from the Government for sediment and debris removal in Hawke’s Bay and Tairāwhiti.                                                                                                   The funding will help local councils continue urgent work removing and disposing of sediment and debris left from Cyclone Gabrielle.   “This additional ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Budget will be delivered on 30 May
    Plans to deliver tax relief to hard-working New Zealanders, rebuild business confidence and restore the Crown’s finances to order will be unveiled on 30 May, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. The plans will be announced in the Budget which is currently being developed by Ministers.  “The last government’s mismanagement of ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Government advances Local Water Done Well
    The Coalition Government is continuing work to restore council ownership and control of water assets by repealing Three Waters and appointing a Technical Advisory Group to provide expert advice on the implementation of Local Water Done Well, Local Government Minister Simeon Brown says. “The Government will pass a bill to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • New diplomatic appointments
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters has today announced five new diplomatic appointments.  "Strong and effective diplomacy to protect and advance our interests in the world is needed now more than ever," Mr Peters says.  “We are delighted to appoint senior diplomats from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade to these ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Speech to the Committee for Auckland
    It is great to be here today at this event as Minister for Auckland and Minister ofTransport. Let me start by acknowledging each one of you and thanking the Committee forAuckland for hosting this event and inviting me to speak here today. The Committee for Auckland has been a symbol ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Getting Transport Back on Track in Auckland
    Transport Minister Simeon Brown has today confirmed his high-level transport priorities for Auckland, in the lead up to releasing the draft Government Policy Statement on Land Transport. “Our economic growth and productivity are underpinned by a transport network that enables people and freight to move around safely and efficiently. At ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Government to axe Auckland Regional Fuel Tax
    Transport Minister Simeon Brown has confirmed that the Auckland Regional Fuel Tax will end on 30 June 2024. “Today, I can confirm that the Government has agreed to remove the Auckland Regional Fuel Tax in line with our coalition commitments, and legislation will be introduced to parliament to repeal the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Minister Calls for Work to Tackle Kina Barrens
    Changes to fishing rules and a significant science programme are being undertaken to address kina barrens, says Minister for Oceans and Fisheries Shane Jones. “There has been tremendous interest from iwi, communities and recreational fishers who had raised concerns about such kina infestations being a major threat to Northland’s marine ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Government law and order crackdown begins
    The coalition Government is making good on its promise to restore law and order by removing government funding for Section 27 reports and abolishing the previous Labour Government’s prison reduction target, Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith and Corrections Minister Mark Mitchell say.  “In recent years, the development of Section 27 reports ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Greater focus on getting people into work
    The coalition government will refocus employment efforts and the welfare system so that supporting people who can work into jobs is the number one priority, Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston says. “Of concern in the labour market statistics released by Stats NZ today was the number of youth not ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • One year on, NZ appeals for release of Phillip Mehrtens
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters has appealed to those holding New Zealand pilot Phillip Mehrtens in remote Papua, Indonesia, to release him immediately.  Phillip Mehrtens was taken hostage a year ago on 7 February in Paro, Papua, while providing vital air links and supplies to remote communities. “We strongly urge those holding ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Ministers reaffirm Pacific connections this week
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters and Health Minister and Minister for Pacific Peoples Dr Shane Reti are reaffirming the importance of New Zealand’s connections to the Pacific by visiting Tonga, Cook Islands and Samoa this week.  “New Zealand enjoys strong and long-standing relationships with our Pacific partners - especially in Polynesia, where we ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Rt Hon Christopher Luxon – Waitangi speech
    E ngā mana, e ngā reo, e ngā iwi, rau rangatira ma. Tēnā koutou katoa. He tino mihi ki te mana whenua o tēnei rohe.  Mihi mai, mihi mai, mihi mai. Te whare e tū nei, tēnā koe.                               He-wāhi whakahirahira tēnei mō Aotearoa. Ka huri nga whakaaro, ki nga mate. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Government awards primary sector scholarships to students
    Six university students studying agriculture and science have been awarded scholarships as part of the coalition Government’s efforts to boost on-the-ground support for farmers and growers. “The coalition Government is committed to improving support and operating conditions for farmers and growers,” Agriculture Minister Todd McClay says. “We’re backing a range ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • High Court Judge appointed
    Attorney-General Judith Collins today announced the appointment of Wellington Barrister Jason Scott McHerron as a High Court Judge. Justice McHerron graduated from the University of Otago with a BA in English literature in 1994 and an LLB in 1996. From 1996 to 1999 he worked as a solicitor in the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago
  • New Zealand provides further humanitarian support to Gaza and the West Bank
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters has announced that New Zealand is providing a further $5 million to respond to the extreme humanitarian need in Gaza and the West Bank.  “The impact of the Israel-Hamas conflict on civilians is absolutely appalling,” Mr Peters says.  “That is why New Zealand has contributed $15 ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago
  • Government consults on expanding COVID-19 Inquiry terms of reference
    The Government is delivering on its commitment to enable public input into expanding the scope of the Royal Commission of Inquiry into COVID-19 Lessons, says Internal Affairs Minister Brooke van Velden. “As committed to in both the ACT-National and NZ First-National coalition agreements, the public will be given the opportunity ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago
  • Tai Tokerau Water Boost
    A further $5 million loan has been advanced to the Tai Tokerau Water Trust for Te Waihekeora Reservoir, Regional Development Minister Shane Jones says.  “Water is a precious resource, Kānoa – Regional Development and Investment Unit at the Ministry of Business, Innovation, and Employment have done amazing work in the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago
  • Fast track consenting in the fast lane
    The Government is progressing changes to resource management laws as part of its 100 Day Action Plan, with the first steps taken to establish a new fast-track consenting one-stop shop regime. “This new regime, which forms part of National’s coalition agreement with New Zealand First, will improve the speed and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago
  • JOINT STATEMENT ON AUSTRALIA-NEW ZEALAND MINISTERIAL CONSULTATIONS (ANZMIN) 2024
    Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Defence the Hon Richard Marles MP and Minister for Foreign Affairs Senator the Hon Penny Wong hosted New Zealand Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Rt Hon Winston Peters MP and Minister of Defence Hon Judith Collins KC MP on 1 February ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago
  • Minimum wage set for cautious increase
    The adult minimum wage rate will increase by 2 per cent to $23.15 an hour from 1 April 2024, Workplace Relations and Safety Minister Brooke van Velden announced today. “This Government is committed to striking the right balance between protecting the incomes of our lowest paid workers and maintaining labour ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago
  • Increased security improves ED safety over summer
    Increasing the number of security staff in emergency departments (EDs) over the busy Christmas and New Year period improved the safety of both staff and patients, Health Minister Dr Shane Reti says. 200 additional security staff (93 FTEs) were provided to 32 EDs in response to concerns raised by ED ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago
  • Step Closer for European Union Free Trade Agreement
    New Zealand has moved closer to ratifying the New Zealand – European Union Free Trade Agreement (FTA), with the First Reading of legislation to bring the Agreement into force being held in Parliament today.   “Almost a decade after preparatory talks first began on an FTA with the European Union, I’m pleased to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 weeks ago

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