Red ripple in US

Written By: - Date published: 8:22 am, November 10th, 2022 - 29 comments
Categories: abortion, Donald Trump, International, Joe Biden, us politics - Tags: , , , , , ,

Except in Florida, where Ron DeSantis led a convincing set of Republican gains, the Republican party in the US have had a disappointing mid-term election. The Democrats who were expecting to face the classic mid-term vote against incumbents, will be pleasantly surprised. There are still a lot of votes to count. This being the US, lawyers will be trying to set court dates.

Widely described as a red ripple, as of this morning it has left Republican without definite control in the Senate with 3 senate races not been called. One of which, Georgia, will probably go to a run-off election in December. As expected the Republican party will have a shallow control of the House with an unconvincing majority which is going to make it hard for them to control their undisciplined mob.

Anthony Zurcher at the BBC described it early on as “Mixed-bag kind of election”

This has been a strange kind of midterm election. Democrats are claiming victory even though they appear poised to lose control of the House of Representatives. Republicans are engaging in the kind of circular firing squads usually reserved for the defeated party.

It’s all about expectations. Republicans – looking at midterm history, Joe Biden’s negative approval ratings and a US economy that was struggling – expected to ride a wave to sweeping congressional victories.

Democrats, after watching their last two presidents get drubbed in their first midterm elections, were assuming the worst.

Antony Zurcher, BBC: Mixed-bag kind of election

That really sums it up. The Republicans focused on inflation, crime and disapproval of Joe Biden. That seems to have resonated with parts of their base.

But outside of the Republican bubble the Democratic and Independent voters voted against nut bar election denialists, shot down further restrictions on abortions and anti-abortion candidates, and against the Trump anointed candidates. They also responsibly seemed to have voted for gun control candidates.

Rising prices and abortion were the two issues top of voters’ minds as they cast their ballots, according to the national exit poll.

Almost a third of people surveyed said inflation was the issue that mattered most in deciding how they voted. A large majority of voters also said it had caused them hardship in the past year.

But abortion was another top issue, with 27% of people saying it was their deciding factor, after the Supreme Court overturned a ruling which had given nationwide protection for abortion rights.

That said, voters were sharply divided along party lines – inflation was by far the biggest issue for Republicans, while for Democrats, abortion was top.

BBC: “US midterms: How the parties are doing in maps and charts”

Probably the clearest example of a refusal to elect nut-bar candidates is in Georgia with senatorial candidate Hershel Walker. There was clearly a lot of split voting from Republican supporters who convincingly voted back in Bryan Kemp as governer, while voting for the Democratic senatorial candidate. Hershel Walker is a Trump anointed candidate with what appear to be similar levels of blatant lying and outright hypocrisy between his public positions and his personal actions – especially on abortion. Of course that could also just be simple racism by Republican supporters voting against a black candidate in Georgia. But there are numerous other examples of the Trump touch being off-putting to the general population of voters.

Where restrictions on abortion was a direct question uncomplicated by other positions, it was seems to have clearly been renounced.

Five states voted on changes to abortion rules.

Vermont, California and Michigan all voted in favour of including the right to reproductive freedom in the state constitution.

In Kentucky, however, the question is the opposite – whether or not to specifically exclude the right to abortion in the state constitution. The measure was rejected by a narrow margin.

In Montana, voters have not been asked about abortion directly. Instead they are being asked to decide on a so-called “born alive” measure that would guarantee any newborn infant, even those born as a result of abortion, the right to medical care that will preserve life.

BBC: “US midterms: How the parties are doing in maps and charts”

It is probably also a factor in the high turnout, something that the Republican party spends considerable time and effort to try to suppress.

Midterm elections usually have a relatively low turnout, but over 116 million people went out to vote this year, according to early figures from the US Elections Project.

This is one of the highest turnout figures in decades.

BBC: “US midterms: How the parties are doing in maps and charts”

2018 was a sweep of repugnance voting against Donald Trump, especially by women. This election looks to me like it was the election by women revolting against a supreme court decision.

I haven’t had a look at the state elections yet, but I suspect that when you factor out the ridiculous gerrymandering (MMP thank you for saving us from that particular political crap) you’re going to see problems for anti-abortion extremists.

But I’m sure there will be a lot more analysis over the coming week. What I am sure about is that the Republican circular firing squad will be interesting after this election. Especially between the Trump arse-lickers and the realpolitik parts of the Republican party who want to gain wider support.

29 comments on “Red ripple in US ”

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  1. Sanctuary 1
    10 November 2022 at 8:35 am

    What happened in Arizona? Please please let Kari Lake lose, I have never used heroin but I am pretty sure nothing would top the joy of watching her meltdown.

    • lprent 1.1
      10 November 2022 at 8:49 am

      Too early and close to call

      69% counted. Hobbs is ahead of Lake by 50.3% to 49.7%.

      The exit polls show interesting sectional voting. Lake isn't very popular with women or younger voters or anyone with tertiary education. A lot of voting on straight party lines which really shows up in the cross-correlations down below the fold.

      BTW: The delays in Arizona counting appear to be largely a result of Republican voter suppression laws and rules.

  2. Ad 2
    10 November 2022 at 8:35 am

    The Georgia runoff has the fate of the Biden Presidency in it.

    Ripple perhaps but they can still lock both Houses.

    That will really shut Biden down, makes for a crazy US end to the political year.

    Huge shoutout to all who fought the Republicans to a standstill.

  3. Sanctuary 3
    10 November 2022 at 8:56 am

    Given the received wisdom of the dire political pundit class in the US was these elections were going to see a sweeping GOP victory, where does that leave the shibboleths of the media talking heads everywhere? After all, our keyboard interviewing circle jerk pundit class have practically declared the next election and done and dusted for National on much of the same reasoning as the Democrats were written off.

    • Tiger Mountain 3.1
      10 November 2022 at 10:14 am

      Good point Sanctuary. The pundits there and here really seem to enjoy the aroma of their own flatulence. Plus I guess many of them are paid mouths for hire anyway.

      A hell of a lot of community organising work went into reducing the widely predicted “red wave” to the “red ripple” as LPRENT well ascribes.

  4. Peter 4
    10 November 2022 at 10:06 am

    The descriptive terms like red trickle, or flood or whatever wash over the nitty-gritty, the minutiae. Like the Kari Lake situation and that of gun-toting Lauren Boebert.

    And the most dramatic one of Marjorie Taylor Greene. The appalling, ignorant representative garnered comfortably more than 60% of the vote.

    That alone paints a picture of the terminal state of the United States.

    • lprent 4.1
      10 November 2022 at 12:21 pm

      Be of good cheer.

      Lauren Boebert with 96% reported counted (153,295 votes)
      Has only 49.7%.

      Her opponent Adam Frisch has the majority

      Pretty freaky how many republicans she must have pissed off.

      Marjorie Taylor Greene is at 65% odd with 97% counted. However her district has always been one of the safest republican house seats for a very long time. She was unlikely to lose. I’d have to look it up – but wasn’t her vote down compared to 2020?

      BTW: why don't you just look these things up rather than dribbling all over yourself in anticipation whilst slagging off something you obviously know fuck all about? Google search is pretty good and designed for the lazy.

      • Peter 4.1.1
        10 November 2022 at 3:03 pm

        "Slagging off something you obviously know fuck all about?" What?

        I certainly wasn't seeking to slag anything off. Just pointing out that behind the headlines there are all sorts of stories bringing joy and bewilderment.

        One little comment I saw, probably an oldie, was about the Republicans suffered from 'electile dysfunction.'

        Naturally there are stories about Herschel Walker on being told there was to be a 'ru-off.' And him last being seen, headphones aboard, jogging down the road.

  5. Drowsy M. Kram 5
    10 November 2022 at 10:35 am

    This bit of re-elected Florida Governor Ron DeSantis’ victory speech has wide appeal.

    We reject woke ideology.
    We fight the woke in the legislature.
    We fight the woke in the schools.
    We fight the woke in the corporations.     [Gott im Himmel, it/they are everywhere!]
    We will never ever surrender [one-upping Churchill], to the woke mob.

    Florida is where woke goes to die!

    Select comments under a YouTube video of Ron’s anti-woke diatribe appealed to me:

    To be fair, Florida is where many go to die

    I'd suggest, "Florida is where brain cells go to die."

    "Conservative" politics have become so embarrassing… basically boomers who took an online marketing course. [unfair to DeSantis, who is no boomer.]

    I was generally supportive of causes that aim to raise awareness of and/or address racial prejudice, sexism and other social inequalities, long before DeSantis and his ilk started labelling them ‘woke’. Imho he is a fitting successor to the previous GOP President of the United States. Unless overtaken by events, Woke War One (WWI) is coming – buckle up.

    U-S-A, U-S-A – let's make America ‘great’ again!!!

    • Visubversa 5.1
      10 November 2022 at 12:16 pm

      "Woke" has taken over from "Politically Correct" as the term for "something in the 21stC I don't like", much beloved of lazy thinkers.

      • Drowsy M. Kram 5.1.1
        10 November 2022 at 12:52 pm

        yes I like the original meaning of the term – its use as a pejorative not so much.

      • roblogic 5.1.2
        10 November 2022 at 9:07 pm

        IMHO "Woke" is a shorthand for "Critical Theory" that rejects empirical knowledge, and importantly, ignores material (Marxist) analysis of class conflict, focusing instead on its own political project

        The focus on identity, experiences, and activism, rather than an attempt to find truth, leads to conflict with empirical scholars and undermines public confidence in the worth of scholarship that uses this approach. Because critical theories nearly always begin with their conclusion—their own assumptions about power dynamics in society, how those are problematic, and the need for their disruption or dismantling—and then seeks to find ways to read them into various aspects of society (see discourse analysis and close reading), the body of scholarship that has been growing for the last fifty years has become a towering and impressive mountain with very insecure foundations.

    • Macro 5.2
      10 November 2022 at 1:10 pm

      Sleep on Florida. DeSantimonious is watching.

    • millsy 5.3
      10 November 2022 at 2:37 pm

      DeSantis wants to impose a theocracy, plain and simple. His mass progroms have already started by trying to purge queer culture from the school system, and allowing people to run down protestors like dogs. I wouldnt be suprised if we started seeing the odd lynching in Florida over the next few years.

    • roblogic 5.4
      10 November 2022 at 7:20 pm

      DeSantis is a scary character, building on the MAGA base, but he's much more electable and coherent than Trump.

      DeSantis is responsible for the deaths of many thousands of Floridians due to his lies and coverups re Covid safety measures

    • Ad 6.1
      10 November 2022 at 4:05 pm

      How will the Democrats repay women particularly young women for saving the mid terms from total carnage?

  7. millsy 7
    10 November 2022 at 2:25 pm

    If nothing else, the furniture has been saved.

    However Biden is still going to face the most right wing, racist, homophobic, transphobic, mysoginistic, authoritarian, anti union, anti welfare, anti public, sector, theocratic GOP in US history. They belive in total Biblical Christianity, and the imposing of it at gunpoint. We are talking about turning the clock back to the 1800's.

    The Republicans will stop at nothing to commence their pogroms, starting with the LGBT community. As far as the GOP goes, the are vermin who deserve to be exterminated. Same with the blacks,

  8. mickysavage 8
    10 November 2022 at 4:47 pm

    Some magnificent writing from Jack Holmes at Esquire:

    "McCarthy now faces the prospect of a one- or three-seat majority where, even if he can fend off a leadership challenge, he will spend all day, every day trying to appease and corral the National Disgrace Caucus of halfwits and narcissists trying to get themselves on TV. It could amount to a Vice-Speaker Marjorie Taylor Green situation, or possibly Jim Jordan, although the caucus may be one light if Lauren Boebert crashes to shock defeat in Colorado's 3rd District. Adam Frisch led her all night and into the morning there, and the prospect that just one of these ghouls might have to get a real job is some solace indeed. Speaking of which, Sarah Palin is getting beaten like a drum up in Alaska again by Mary Peltola."

    https://www.esquire.com/news-politics/a41906011/who-won-midterms-2022/?fbclid=IwAR2HWKjrUw5pKS2Ow9H8dk6urH0gCwKj-sglOvojlFJNQaYs9OynhuMYYb8

    Bobert is still behind although only just …

  9. adam 9
    10 November 2022 at 5:16 pm

    All I can say is well done to our American friends for not voting in the Christian Fascists who have infested the GOP.

    Seems to be a big reaction against by republican voters.

    Time will tell.

  10. mosa 10
    10 November 2022 at 8:48 pm

    " Especially between the Trump arse-lickers

    That description does you favours.

    We have such a rich language yet you choose language like that to make a point.

  11. newsense 11
    11 November 2022 at 4:44 am

    Where next for the GOP if they can shake Trump?

    Anti-democratic campaigning or plotting has been part of their long term goals for a long time. There will have been a lot of anti-democratic ultra partisan Republicans elected in key offices that decide on electoral issues. ID/voter suppression laws weren’t discussed, nor was gerrymandering.
    The Federalists seem to rather have overachieved in terms of flooding the judiciary. There seems to be more Russian sympathy with the GOP, with talk about slowing or stopping support for Ukraine. Fox News has demon spawn in OAN etc. We’ve seen Elon Musk tweeting conspiracies about Nancy Pelosi’s husband.

    In short, Trump is an issue, but if he goes American democracy isn’t necessarily free from disloyal opposition and attacks on it as an institution or a concept. To be cheerful about it, perhaps it’s only going to get worse? Perhaps ‘civility’ maybe be returned in some discussion of their plans, but the plans without the insults and reality denying fabrications won’t change an enormous amount? The next coup may be better organised and less visible.

    And let’s be honest it is far far from clear that they will shake themselves free from Trump 2024.

  12. Maurice 12
    11 November 2022 at 9:05 am

    The far greater danger in the US is that BOTH sides have had it clearly demonstrated that NEITHER can prevail by voting and the 50/50 split has been well reinforced.

    • Ad 12.1
      13 November 2022 at 7:00 am

      Not true on the Democrat and Biden record of delivery this term.

      American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 is a federal bill passed by the 117th Congress and signed into law by President Joe Biden (D) on March 11, 2021, to provide economic relief in response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

      According to the White House, the key features of the law include the following government initiatives and investments:[2]

      • Spend approximately $160 billion on national vaccination program and response
      • Spend approximately $130 billion to safely reopen schools
      • Distribute $1,400 per person in relief payments
      • Extend unemployment benefits to September 6, 2021
      • Increase Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) benefits by 15 percent through September 2021
      • Increase the Child Tax Credit from $2,000 to $3,000 per child over age 6 and $3,600 per child under age 6
      • Increase the Earned Income Tax Credit
      • Expand childcare assistance and provide an additional tax credit for childcare costs
      • Provide $1 billion to states for Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) recipients
      • Lower health insurance premiums

      Build Back Better Act of 2021

      The Build Back Better Act (H.R. 5376) is a bill pending before the 117th Congress. It cleared the United States House of Representatives on November 19, 2021.

      House Democrats released a $1.75 trillion budget framework on October 28, 2021, for spending on climate change, childcare, and healthcare. President Joe Biden (D) announced his support for the framework the same day. Key spending included the following initiatives:

      • $555 billion aiming to address climate change and renewable energy investment
      • $400 billion aiming to address childcare, childcare costs, and universal pre-K
      • $165 billion aiming to address healthcare and Medicare hearing expansion
      • $150 billion aiming to address public housing and affordability issues
      • $150 billion aiming to address home care

      Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act of 2021

      The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act of 2021 (IIJA) is a federal bill passed by the 117th Congress and signed into law by President Joe Biden (D) on November 15, 2021.

      According to the White House, the key features of the bill include:

      • $89.9 billion in new infrastructure funding and reauthorizations
      • $66 billion in funding for Amtrak maintenance and development
      • $40 billion in new funding for bridge repair, replacement, and rehabilitation
      • $55 billion in funding for clean drinking water
      • $65 billion in funding to create universal access to reliable high-speed internet
      • $65 billion in funding for clean energy transmission and power infrastructure upgrades

      Bipartisan Safer Communities Act of 2022

      The Bipartisan Safer Communities Act of 2022 is a firearm regulation and mental health bill passed by the 117th Congress and signed into law by President Joe Biden (D) on June 25, 2022.

      • Expanded background checks for individuals under the age of 21 purchasing firearms.
      • Providing $11 billion for mental health services, including increased funding for the Medicaid Certified Community Behavioral Health Clinic program, increased funding for school-based mental health programs, and investments in pediatric mental healthcare services.
      • Preventing individuals who have been convicted of a domestic violence misdemeanor or felony in dating relationships from purchasing firearms for five years.
      • Providing $750 million for state grants to implement crisis intervention order programs, also referred to as red-flag laws, that would allow authorities to confiscate firearms from individuals who have been determined by a court to be a significant danger to themselves or others. The grants could also be used to support mental health courts, drug courts, veterans courts, and extreme risk protection orders.
      • Providing $2 billion for community-based violence prevention initiatives.

      Inflation Reduction Act of 2022

      Signed into law by President Joe Biden (D) on August 16, 2022, addressing climate change, healthcare costs, and tax enforcement.

      • A $369 billion investment to address energy security and climate change
      • An extension of Affordable Care Act subsidies
      • Allowing Medicare to negotiate certain drug prices
      • A 15% corporate minimum tax, a 1% stock buyback fee, and enhanced Internal Revenue Service (IRS) enforcement
      • An estimated $300 billion deficit reduction from 2022-2030

      Joe Biden presidential administration – Ballotpedia

      Also:

      Electoral Count Reform and Presidential Transition Act

      Directing Pentagon to give US$Trillion and counting weapons to Ukraine which have enabled them to repel Russia, and now likely to win

      Revived and expanded NATO

      Unified much of world against Russia

      Deep trade sanctions against China which are working in specific and telling areas

      Very robust defence of Taiwan

      And Biden has successfully defended the Senate majority which hasn't been done in a fair while, and he has two years to go to achieve more.

      The above I'd argue is more extensive than that achieved by LBJ, our last big New Dealer.

  13. Maurice 13
    13 November 2022 at 3:09 am

    Remember this: https://time.com/4608555/hillary-clinton-popular-vote-final/

    In the final count, Hillary Clinton’s lead in the popular vote of the 2016 presidential election was nearly three million votes.

    According to the independent, non-partisan Cook Political Report, Clinton’s final tally came in at 65,844,610, compared to Donald Trump’s 62,979,636, with a difference of 2,864,974. The total number of votes for other candidates was 7,804,213.

    Seems the reverse has occurred: https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2022/11/10/republicans-have-won-6-million-more-votes-than-democrats-in-house-races-but-relatively-few-seats/

    According to the Cook Political Report, as of Thursday morning, November 10, Republicans have won 50,113,534 votes, or 52.3% of the vote, compared to 44,251,768, or 46.2% of the vote. Republicans lead by 6.1%, which is better than their average in “generic congressional ballot” polls, in which the party led by 2.5% in the final RealClearPolitics average before the election. But Republicans have only managed to flip nine seats thus far — likely enough to control the House, but far short of a “wave” result many anticipated.