Slowing economy?

Written By: - Date published: 7:30 am, August 14th, 2019 - 39 comments
Categories: australian politics, capitalism, Economy, economy - Tags:

The Singapore Government have just cut their forecast economic growth rate to near 0 per cent. The impact of the U.S.-China trade war is really hitting, and it’s going to hit us harder too.

Australia – on whose economy we are very reliant – has had a massive stimulus passed in its last budget. Also, straight after their election the Australian Federal Reserve Bank cut interest rates to 1% .That’s the lowest level on record. The RBA Governor Glenn Stevens has said the probability of recession in Australia is 100%, “only the timing is uncertain”. Droll as usual. Australia hasn’t been in a recession for over 20 years.

As to New Zealand, in May our Treasury was projecting growth accelerating from 2.4% to 3% in 2019-20. Our Reserve Bank has reacted the same way as the RBA, and pessimistically cut to 1%. Both can’t be right.

There’s plenty of concern about Auckland property, but property values outside Auckland are at record highs. Unemployment is low, but it looks like it needs to go even lower to get real wages forced up. The government has plenty of borrowing headroom if it really needed to, which is excellent because business sentiment is really terrible and two of our biggest businesses in Fletcher Building and Fonterra are in recovery mode from a very, very low base.

There are no breakout companies on our sharemarket or taking over the world.

Singapore’s economic signal is important to watch, and while it doesn’t make recession here certain, it’s a signal that it’s more likely and soon.

39 comments on “Slowing economy? ”

  1. Sanctuary 1

    The way right wing commentary was able to frame the RB interest rate cut as a negative was impressive, made more effective (yet again) by Grant Robertson's technocratic distain of political engagement and parallel invisibility in the media.

    • Nic the NZer 2.1

      Samubeel is right to say this. On the contrary Ad chooses to present it in missleading terms. "The government has plenty of borrowing headroom if it really needed to" this implies that the NZ govt has an external borrowing constraint, which is false. In reality the NZ government (as for any government which runs its own currency issuing central bank) can never run out of money. The government can (and to some extent does already) just mandate its central bank to carry out spending on its behalf. The actual reason the government borrows is not to acquire spending resources, it is to maintain higher borrowing costs at commerical banks in line with OCR policy. If the government doesn't do this then the 90 day bank bill rates and likely borrowing costs will fall away from and below the OCR. Always borrowing the deficit before spending is a policy choice of the government and Reserve bank.

      In short the deficit is not a constraint on government spending, ever. It is a policy choice to maintain as minimal a deficit as possible and politically up for grabs. The upshot of this choice is that it constrains NZers income and savings (as most government spending is on NZ businesses and individuals).

      • Dukeofurl 2.1.1

        There is some suggestion that Australia who seem to have faced headwinds a bit earlier than us are thinking of the 'quantitative easing' rather than negative interest rates. That is of course the fancy way of creating money nowdays.

        https://www.afr.com/policy/economy/zero-rates-qe-possible-rba-s-lowe-20190809-p52fhw

        With the cash rate at a record low 1 per cent, Dr Lowe said that if the bank ever cut rates "very close" to zero, buying "risk-free" government bonds to drive down long-term yields would probably be the next option.

        • Nic the NZer 2.1.1.1

          Both QE and negative interest rates are monetary policy tools and therefore will be ineffective at boosting the OZ economy. The difference is that fiscal policy increases somebodies income directly, monetary policy just provides an opportunity to someone to earn more income with a lower interest rate.

          To give credit to the governor of the RBA he also said to treasury recently that its not his job to tell treasury what to do, but they could in his opinion do some fiscal policy.

          Describing QE as creating money is common but a bit nonsense too. Its an exchange of a long term asset like a bond for a short term asset like cash. This doesn't really change the total assets floating around the economy which is why it has so insignificant an effect. Yes, it is how central banks fund the government fairly directly via a kind of back door channel however.

  2. lprent 3

    I'm with the Reserve Bank on this, but both forecasts are probably correct. The Treasury forecasts are largely measure the immediate forthcoming growth in the internal economy. But the longer term inputs that drive the profitability of our economy come from the external trade economy

    The global economy is in a strange space at present, one that would have been more familiar to my parents and grandparents than to me. I was born in 1959. So in my lifetime, international trade has always moved towards having less national restrictions rather than more. Our income as a country has become dependent upon that.

    But with an optimistic fool in the White House attempting to bankrupt his farming community with a trade war, it just encourages the kind of idiotic behaviour that made the depression in the 1930s such a long drawn out mess of misery.

    Sure we haven't had any particular internal economic issues for the moment apart from the ones mentioned in the post. High employment and low wages which has been common across all developed economies in this economic cycle, undercapitalisation across all businesses apart from banking, and its congruent speculative over-priced housing and land market.

    But we clearly have an under-developed internal economy with insufficient capital going into the infrastructure required for our increased population and the productivity improvements to make better use of employees. We effectively have had a 1-2% growth per annum in population (and more like 2-3% in Auckland) for the last 30 years without the required levels of infrastructure being put in. This means that we're now hitting our limits to growth in housing, companies, and business.

    The RB decision, along with considerable work being done in diminishing speculative activity, are clear signals about where investment needs to go. Not into the hands of the internal rentier economy, who are largely the people fueling the business confidence levels, but into productivity.

    Frankly I don't have that much sympathy for the whiners in the real estate, banking, and importer/retailer sectors who make up the majority of participants in business confidence surveys. They have had their decade from National of creaming off the easy money.

    But I'm pretty sure that even they must realise that the bill for the lack of investment in our productive economy has to come sooner or later – and it only gets worse later. We haven't been building the nascent export businesses and productive people who don't have to spend large portions of their life sitting in cars on motorways and pay most of their wages to get a roof.

    With the uncertain Trumpian future in the far more competitive external economy where I work, it is pretty clear that the flow of trade to the country isn't going to allow their kind of National party easy living to continue. We need to start doing some better decisions and more investment for our and our kids futures.

    • Nic the NZer 3.1

      You used the word measure to describe a forecast. Its worth acknowledging that no forecast no matter how accurate ever is a measure (or actual). Treasury forecasts are also just not that accurate.

      • lprent 3.1.1

        Agreed. However they're usually within about 10-25%, usually on the optimistic side; as long as there isn't an external shock that really screws them.

        The reason for that relative accuracy (compared to business who are usually crazy bad on their budgeting) is the combination of provisional tax estimates by companies, the gst receipts and the stats filled out by businesses.

        • Nic the NZer 3.1.1.1

          Its my own belief that they are "within about 10-25% usually on the optimistic side" because they are incoherent models of the economy. The DSGE variety assume that there is an economic equilibrum to which the economy is attracted in the long run (if nothing were to change, which never happens). This model is so poor in the short run that it is modified with ad-hoc concepts like 'frictions' and these parameters tuned so sometimes the model is close in the short run, and sometime still quite wrong.

          The problems with this are that the long run model is completely shielded from scientific inquiry as there is no time period matching the long run, its a forecast of what is supposedly going to happen far into the future if nothing changes to interfere with the equilibrium annealing process (eg its a forecast of something which never happens).

          The short run is a modification of this underlying long run. The problem here is the frictions introduced are not coherent concepts which could be externally to the model measured and inserted, they are instead concepts which only make sense in the model.

          For anybody unfamiliar, you can take many such functions of enough parameters and typically fit them to data to estimate the parameters and so generate an estimate of further values. This may produce a better or worse fit but that function doesn't have to be a sensible model of the data being forecast, or the names of the parameter values don't have to hold any meaning for this to work.

          At a high level the problems are that

          * this macroeconomic process is not up for scientific inquiry or challenge, it functions disconnected from reality.

          * sometimes policy decisions are made based on these models internals. This is true most specifically describing a parameter called the NAIRU which is certainly not describing anything you could measure.

          * being systematically optimistic produces systematically pesimistic outcomes. If it wasn't systematic this might not be a problem, but it clearly is and leads to systematic underspending on the public ledger again and again.

  3. Pat 4

    "Borrowing the phrase of former US Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson, the central bank needs a “bazooka” at the zero bound that makes credible its commitment to achieving its policy rule. Negative interest rate policy is precisely the requisite intrument, and this can be achieved by making the legal, tax and regulatory changes needed to use unconstrained negative interest rate policy effectively in fighting a deep recession. Most of the necessary adaptations of the financial plumbing needed to make negative interest rate policy effective – potentially as effective as interest rate policy in positive territory are straightforward. The most vexing issue is preventing large-scale cash hoarding by pension funds, insurance companies and financial institutions (small depositors can easily be exempted). If hoarding is decisively dealt with (one way being to allow the trade-in value of paper currency at the central bank to depreciate over time during negative interest rate episodes a la Eisler 1933), it should solve the problem of bank profitability (to the extent there is one) by making it straightforward to pass on negative interest 35 rates on to large-scale depositors. This will ensure that the normal stimulus effects of lower interest rates on consumption and investment will transmit to the real economy. Of course, as is usually the case, lower interest rates will likely also push up the prices of housing, equities and other assets, while at the same time pushing up nominal interest rates on longer-term bonds due to higher long term expected inflation as well stronger medium term growth."

    https://www.hoover.org/sites/default/files/lilley_rogoff_hoover_monetary_conference.pdf

    NZ being a tiny economy has little choice but to play the game the way those making the rules have determined

  4. esoteric pineapples 5

    Three words: Negative Bond Yields

    "A quarter of the bonds issued by governments and companies worldwide are currently trading atnegative yields — which means that $14tn of outstanding debt is being paid for by creditors in a bizarre reversal of normal practice."

    https://www.ft.com/content/e27c430f-30bc-3cf6-9917-962ca2eee807

    "The U.S. Treasury yield curve — a barometer for market confidence — normally slopes upwards because investors demand higher yields for bonds with longer maturities. But this March, it inverted for the first time since 2007, signaling that investors are so worried that things are going to get worse that they’d rather lock in lower rates for the future today than risk long-term rates going even lower. The curve has inverted before each and every recession in the past half century — with only one false signal."

    https://medium.com/@teamwarren/the-coming-economic-crash-and-how-to-stop-it-355703da148b

  5. Muttonbird 6

    Have you considered one was to achieve the other?

  6. SHG 7

    Treasury is no longer an employer of choice for the best economists in the country and it doesn't have the brainpower it once did.

    • Dukeofurl 7.1

      Agree with you on that… their forecasts are unreliable, their oversight its amateur hour.

  7. You comment included a couple of factoids/comments that need fact checking.

    Firstly: "Unemployment is low, but it looks like it needs to go even lower to get real wages forced up."

    Fact: Last week Stats NZ released the latest jobs and wages data which showed average hourly earnings increased 4 per cent over the past year to $32.37 an hour. That is the largest year-on-year percentage increase since June 2009. With annual inflation at 1.5% and falling, a 2.5% annual increase in 'real' wages is pretty darned good in most people's books.

    Second: "There are no breakout companies on our sharemarket or taking over the world."

    Fact: A2 dairy company has seen it's market capitalisation rise to around $12 billion (actually it has slipped down from $14b last month) and is now more than double the cap of Fonterra. A2 is tipped to announce another fabulous result that is likely to see its share price continue its journey north.

    Fact: Xero's share price is now around $64 – 4x its price of two years ago. It is now capitalised at ~$9 billion, more than 2x that of Fletcher Building.

    These are companies that are taking on the world and winning.

    • Stuart Munro. 8.1

      You want to be a little careful of average wages – a couple of clowns on $8 mill like Theo Sperlings tend to throw them out. Median wage growth was a more moderate 3%, probably below rent and utilities increases.

      • greywarshark 8.1.1

        Thanks SM we need to keep up the game of tennis or squash? and bat back the inadequate statistics we live by – fast food is unhealthy, fast stats can kill ya.

    • Dukeofurl 8.2

      "is now more than double the cap of Fonterra. "

      Thats a fallacy as Fonterra is mostly a Coop whos value is not in the 'farmers shares' side of the business.

      Fonterra is a $20 bill a year revenue company, with massive cash flows- most of which goes to its farmer- owners outside the 'share dividends'

      A2 is probably the size of a medium sized Fonterra plant, one of dozens.

      Xero and A2 are what they call bubble companies which share values not matched by any sort of decent cash flow. Bubbles like that will burst in an overheated economy where interest rates are low – which means share prices are high

      • tc 8.2.1

        Xero's a classic bubble entity that shows the feelgood factor of share prices and a growth yarn rather than one based on a hard nose look at it's financials.

        Fletchers is a bricks and mortar company that’s been run badly with more financial pain to come. Sky City convention centre etc. the market knows this.

        Comparing the 2 is nonsense.

        • Dukeofurl 8.2.1.1

          essentially yes.

          But Fonterra and Fletchers share one thing in common having a so called hot shot CEO from outside who is given a mandate from the board to buy up overseas businesses to 'grow the business' or what other bumpf they can come up .

          As they buy up they both have to write off the investment ( mostly bought with borrowed money which they are still on the hook for) or sell at less than optimum prices.

          Its too stupid for words, and hardly ever works. Grand procession of NZ companies who follow that well trodden path.

        • greywarshark 8.2.1.2

          Xero and A2 probably represent the desire from investors for NZ to actually get on and do business instead of wading round with mud to the ankles. We develop stuff and then sell them on instead of grimly getting on with keeping and running the company for a NZ reward. That is partly feelgood reaction by shareholders and partly a desire to support a NZ enterprise to be a winner.

      • Blazer 8.2.2

        ATM is an IPO Coy.It pays farmers more for their milk(mainly Jersey cow)and contracts processing in NZ to Synlait.

        It has more than 10% of the market in Australia and international patents for A2 MILK,which is meant to have health benefits, that A1 protein milk does not have.(unproven).

        Its big growth is in China..Platinum A2 infant formula and is increasing sales in impressive fashion.

        Nestle and Fonterra have become interested in the product too.

    • Tricledrown 8.3

      Xero hasn't made a profit yet. If the share market crashes it will go down quickly. A2 is riding on flimsy science, poor examples.

  8. infused 9

    Just from the customers, I deal with, it's easy to see a slowdown. In particular, manufacturing which is coming off the steam, or has been for a few months now. All the stats you read are lagging.

    Lucky with those manufactures, most export. all have said the NZ market is pretty dead. Mainly because the big govt projects have slowed/stopped/ended.

    Consumers still seem to be spending like mad though.

  9. greywarshark 10

    I have to pay $40 GST on insuring my household contents. My repair bill for my car shows about $60 GST. So $100 tax on a low income person to keep things going, try to maintain my household and services. This is a grossly unfair tax on a country of mostly low to medium income earners. I say again, though I am sure that august group working on tax would never hear it, that GST should be lower and I think it should be 8 percent with 4% going to the consolidated fund? and 4% being returned to the locality, region it came from and divided up between the councils and hospital boards, mostly going to the people's councils and a quarter to regional, and quarter to DHBs.

    That way it would spread out and have a multiplier effect beyond the basic, and a better distribution and sharing in returns from whatever enterprise survives in this country (besides road building, house buying and continuing repairs of houses and structure – talk about makework!).

    • Dukeofurl 10.1

      Unfortunately that benefits higher income people too.

      Councils and DHBs arent necessarily wise spenders of money. Half the DHB spend isnt on Hospital side of things.

      • greywarshark 10.1.1

        Are you critic and arbiter of anything financial from The Treasury Dukeof Url? 'Councils and DHBs arent necessarily wise spenders of money. Half the DHB spend isnt on Hospital side of things.' All entities don't spend money wisely all the time. And people on higher incomes can benefit from changes. The intention with change is to have them pay a fairer amount of tax for the good running of the state for all people.

        A lot of the money that is wasted is spent on overhyped IT systems. And on CEO and top managers salaries. I suggest a tender system for the executives. At present the salary at the top is applied in almost exactly the same way that wages went up for workers – automatically keeping pace with inflation. They have had the wind taken from their sails, but the executives are riding on that uplift to the stratosphere with their dosh.

    • infused 10.2

      Well, if you really are that low income, you're likely getting topped up. So in real times, likely paying no tax.

      • Dukeofurl 10.2.1

        That was the intention of GST to remove a lot of income tax payments for the first $40 k.

        Its called shifting tax from income to expenditure , its still there for higher incomes as they have more income left over after meeting living costs and can move money into ' investing' where taxing is light

        Labour already has moved more money into beneficiaries by the 'winter energy' flat rate payment . It took some doing as the payment system wasnt set up for it.

        Make it all year round!

        • Infused 10.2.1.1

          I've always supported a higher tax free threshold. The tax brackets need moving and a 4th bracket introduced

  10. Craig H 11

    The amount of private debt in NZ is large, so lower interest rates are good for the economy if the decrease is passed on in some manner. It might be a year or two for that to happen because most of the debt is fixed term mortgages.

    • Poission 11.1

      Households fund most of the private debt.

      june 2017 160 b

      june 2018 171 b

      june 2019 180 b

      Business (non financial) seem to have run out of ideas as their bank deposits have increased.

      june 17 76b.

      june 18 80b

      june 19 86b.

  11. tc 12

    Gdp is diminishing across the board as the global economy is plugged into fossil fuels.

    Peak oil was a tipping point. Until we retool our economy for sharing and sustainable practices it's all downhill IMO.

  12. Ad 13

    Fairly sharp decline in dollar and sharemarket here.

    Its heart in mouth time for all on Kiwisavers

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  • Expert Opinion: Ageing Boomers, Laurie & Les, Talk Politics.
    It hardly strikes me as fair to criticise a government for doing exactly what it said it was going to do. For actually keeping its promises.”THUNDER WAS PLAYING TAG with lightning flashes amongst the distant peaks. Its rolling cadences interrupted by the here-I-come-here-I-go Doppler effect of the occasional passing car. ...
    3 days ago
  • Manufacturing The Truth.
    Subversive & Disruptive Technologies: Just as happened with that other great regulator of the masses, the Medieval Church, the advent of a new and hard-to-control technology – the Internet –  is weakening the ties that bind. Then, and now, those who enjoy a monopoly on the dissemination of lies, cannot and will ...
    3 days ago
  • A Powerful Sensation of Déjà Vu.
    Been Here Before: To find the precedents for what this Coalition Government is proposing, it is necessary to return to the “glory days” of Muldoonism.THE COALITION GOVERNMENT has celebrated its first 100 days in office by checking-off the last of its listed commitments. It remains, however, an angry government. It ...
    3 days ago
  • Can you guess where world attention is focussed (according to Greenpeace)? It’s focussed on an EPA...
    Bob Edlin writes –  And what is the world watching today…? The email newsletter from Associated Press which landed in our mailbox early this morning advised: In the news today: The father of a school shooter has been found guilty of involuntary manslaughter; prosecutors in Trump’s hush-money case ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    3 days ago
  • Further integrity problems for the Greens in suspending MP Darleen Tana
    Bryce Edwards writes – Is another Green MP on their way out? And are the Greens severely tarnished by another integrity scandal? For the second time in three months, the Green Party has secretly suspended an MP over integrity issues. Mystery is surrounding the party’s decision to ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    3 days ago
  • Jacqui Van Der Kaay: Greens’ transparency missing in action
    For the last few years, the Green Party has been the party that has managed to avoid the plague of multiple scandals that have beleaguered other political parties. It appears that their luck has run out with a second scandal which, unfortunately for them, coincided with Golraz Ghahraman, the focus ...
    Democracy ProjectBy bryce.edwards
    3 days ago
  • Bernard’s Dawn Chorus with six newsey things at 6:46am for Saturday, March 16
    TL;DR: The six newsey things that stood out to me as of 6:46am on Saturday, March 16.Andy Foster has accidentally allowed a Labour/Green amendment to cut road user chargers for plug-in hybrid vehicles, which the Government might accept; NZ Herald Thomas Coughlan Simeon Brown has rejected a plea from Westport ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago
  • How Did FTX Crash?
    What seemed a booming success a couple of years ago has collapsed into fraud convictions.I looked at the crash of FTX (short for ‘Futures Exchange’) in November 2022 to see whether it would impact on the financial system as a whole. Fortunately there was barely a ripple, probably because it ...
    PunditBy Brian Easton
    4 days ago
  • Elections in Russia and Ukraine
    Anybody following the situation in Ukraine and Russia would probably have been amused by a recent Tweet on X NATO seems to be putting in an awful lot of effort to influence what is, at least according to them, a sham election in an autocracy.When do the Ukrainians go to ...
    4 days ago
  • Bernard’s six stack of substacks at 6pm on March 15
    TL;DR: Shaun Baker on Wynyard Quarter's transformation. Magdalene Taylor on the problem with smart phones. How private equity are now all over reinsurance. Dylan Cleaver on rugby and CTE. Emily Atkin on ‘Big Meat’ looking like ‘Big Oil’.Bernard’s six-stack of substacks at 6pm on March 15Photo by Jeppe Hove Jensen ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • Buzz from the Beehive Finance Minister Nicola Willis had plenty to say when addressing the Auckland Business Chamber on the economic growth that (she tells us) is flagging more than we thought. But the government intends to put new life into it:  We want our country to be a ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    4 days ago
  • National’s clean car tax advances
    The Transport and Infrastructure Committee has reported back on the Road User Charges (Light Electric RUC Vehicles) Amendment Bill, basicly rubberstamping it. While there was widespread support among submitters for the principle that EV and PHEV drivers should pay their fair share for the roads, they also overwhelmingly disagreed with ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    4 days ago
  • Government funding bailouts
    Peter Dunne writes – This week’s government bailout – the fifth in the last eighteen months – of the financially troubled Ruapehu Alpine Lifts company would have pleased many in the central North Island ski industry. The government’s stated rationale for the $7 million funding was that it ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago
  • Two offenders, different treatments.
    See if you can spot the difference. An Iranian born female MP from a progressive party is accused of serial shoplifting. Her name is leaked to the media, which goes into a pack frenzy even before the Police launch an … Continue reading ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    4 days ago
  • Treaty references omitted
    Ele Ludemann writes  – The government is omitting general Treaty references from legislation : The growth of Treaty of Waitangi clauses in legislation caused so much worry that a special oversight group was set up by the last Government in a bid to get greater coherence in the public service on Treaty ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago
  • The Ghahraman Conflict
    What was that judge thinking? Peter Williams writes –  That Golriz Ghahraman and District Court Judge Maria Pecotic were once lawyer colleagues is incontrovertible. There is published evidence that they took at least one case to the Court of Appeal together. There was a report on ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago
  • Bernard's Top 10 @ 10 'pick 'n' mix' for March 15
    TL;DR: My top 10 news and analysis links this morning include:Today’s must-read: Climate Scorpion – the sting is in the tail. Introducing planetary solvency. A paper via the University of Exeter’s Institute and Faculty of Actuaries.Local scoop: Kāinga Ora starts pulling out of its Auckland projects and selling land RNZ ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • The day Wellington up-zoned its future
    Wellington’s massively upzoned District Plan adds the opportunity for tens of thousands of new homes not just in the central city (such as these Webb St new builds) but also close to the CBD and public transport links. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: Wellington gave itself the chance of ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • Weekly Roundup 15-March-2024
    It’s Friday and we’re halfway through March Madness. Here’s some of the things that caught our attention this week. This Week in Greater Auckland On Monday Matt asked how we can get better event trains and an option for grade separating Morningside Dr. On Tuesday Matt looked into ...
    Greater AucklandBy Greater Auckland
    4 days ago
  • That Word.
    Something you might not know about me is that I’m quite a stubborn person. No, really. I don’t much care for criticism I think’s unfair or that I disagree with. Few of us do I suppose.Back when I was a drinker I’d sometimes respond defensively, even angrily. There are things ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    4 days ago
  • The Hoon around the week to March 15
    Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The five things that mattered in Aotearoa’s political economy that we wrote and spoke about via The Kākā and elsewhere for paying subscribers in the last week included:PM Christopher Luxon said the reversal of interest deductibility for landlords was done to help renters, who ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago
  • Labour’s policy gap
    It was not so much the Labour Party but really the Chris Hipkins party yesterday at Labour’s caucus retreat in Martinborough. The former Prime Minister was more or less consistent on wealth tax, which he was at best equivocal about, and social insurance, which he was not willing to revisit. ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    4 days ago
  • Skeptical Science New Research for Week #11 2024
    Open access notables A Glimpse into the Future: The 2023 Ocean Temperature and Sea Ice Extremes in the Context of Longer-Term Climate Change, Kuhlbrodt et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society: In the year 2023, we have seen extraordinary extrema in high sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Atlantic and in ...
    5 days ago
  • Melissa remains mute on media matters but has something to say (at a sporting event) about economic ...
     Buzz from the Beehive   The text reproduced above appears on a page which records all the media statements and speeches posted on the government’s official website by Melissa Lee as Minister of Media and Communications and/or by Jenny Marcroft, her Parliamentary Under-secretary.  It can be quickly analysed ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    5 days ago
  • The return of Muldoon
    For forty years, Robert Muldoon has been a dirty word in our politics. His style of government was so repulsive and authoritarian that the backlash to it helped set and entrench our constitutional norms. His pig-headedness over forcing through Think Big eventually gave us the RMA, with its participation and ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • Will the rental tax cut improve life for renters or landlords?
    Bryce Edwards writes –  Is the new government reducing tax on rental properties to benefit landlords or to cut the cost of rents? That’s the big question this week, after Associate Finance Minister David Seymour announced on Sunday that the Government would be reversing the Labour Government’s removal ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago
  • Geoffrey Miller: What Saudi Arabia’s rapid changes mean for New Zealand
    Saudi Arabia is rarely far from the international spotlight. The war in Gaza has brought new scrutiny to Saudi plans to normalise relations with Israel, while the fifth anniversary of the controversial killing of Jamal Khashoggi was marked shortly before the war began on October 7. And as the home ...
    Democracy ProjectBy Geoffrey Miller
    5 days ago
  • Racism’s double standards
    Questions need to be asked on both sides of the world Peter Williams writes –   The NRL Judiciary hands down an eight week suspension to Sydney Roosters forward Spencer Leniu , an Auckland-born Samoan, after he calls Ezra Mam, Sydney-orn but of Aboriginal and Torres Strait ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago
  • It’s not a tax break
    Ele Ludemann writes – Contrary to what many headlines and news stories are saying, residential landlords are not getting a tax break. The government is simply restoring to them the tax deductibility of interest they had until the previous government removed it. There is no logical reason ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago
  • The Plastic Pig Collective and Chris' Imaginary Friends.
    I can't remember when it was goodMoments of happiness in bloomMaybe I just misunderstoodAll of the love we left behindWatching our flashbacks intertwineMemories I will never findIn spite of whatever you becomeForget that reckless thing turned onI think our lives have just begunI think our lives have just begunDoes anyone ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    5 days ago
  • Who is responsible for young offenders?
    Michael Bassett writes – At first reading, a front-page story in the New Zealand Herald on 13 March was bizarre. A group of severely intellectually limited teenagers, with little understanding of the law, have been pleading to the Justice Select Committee not to pass a bill dealing with ram ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago
  • Gordon Campbell on National’s fantasy trip to La La Landlord Land
    How much political capital is Christopher Luxon willing to burn through in order to deliver his $2.9 billion gift to landlords? Evidently, Luxon is: (a) unable to cost the policy accurately. As Anna Burns-Francis pointed out to him on Breakfast TV, the original ”rock solid” $2.1 billion cost he was ...
    5 days ago
  • Bernard's Top 10 @ 10 'pick 'n' mix' for March 14
    TL;DR: My top 10 news and analysis links this morning include:Today’s must-read: Jonathon Porritt calling bullshit in his own blog post on mainstream climate science as ‘The New Denialism’.Local scoop: The Wellington City Council’s list of proposed changes to the IHP recommendations to be debated later today was leaked this ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • No, Prime Minister, rents don’t rise or fall with landlords’ costs
    TL;DR: Prime Minister Christopher Luxon said yesterday tenants should be grateful for the reinstatement of interest deductibility because landlords would pass on their lower tax costs in the form of lower rents. That would be true if landlords were regulated monopolies such as Transpower or Auckland Airport1, but they’re not, ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago
  • Cartoons: ‘At least I didn’t make things awkward’
    This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Tom Toro Tom Toro is a cartoonist and author. He has published over 200 cartoons in The New Yorker since 2010. His cartoons appear in Playboy, the Paris Review, the New York Times, American Bystander, and elsewhere. Related: What 10 EV lovers ...
    5 days ago
  • Solving traffic congestion with Richard Prebble
    The business section of the NZ Herald is full of opinion. Among the more opinionated of all is the ex-Minister of Transport, ex-Minister of Railways, ex MP for Auckland Central (1975-93, Labour), Wellington Central (1996-99, ACT, then list-2005), ex-leader of the ACT Party, uncle to actor Antonia, the veritable granddaddy ...
    Greater AucklandBy Patrick Reynolds
    5 days ago
  • I Think I'm Done Flying Boeing
    Hi,Just quickly — I’m blown away by the stories you’ve shared with me over the last week since I put out the ‘Gary’ podcast, where I told you about the time my friend’s flatmate killed the neighbour.And you keep telling me stories — in the comments section, and in my ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    5 days ago
  • Invoking Aristotle: Of Rings of Power, Stones, and Ships
    The first season of Rings of Power was not awful. It was thoroughly underwhelming, yes, and left a lingering sense of disappointment, but it was more expensive mediocrity than catastrophe. I wrote at length about the series as it came out (see the Review section of the blog, and go ...
    6 days ago
  • Van Velden brings free-market approach to changing labour laws – but her colleagues stick to distr...
    Buzz from the Beehive Workplace Relations and Safety Minister Brooke van Velden told Auckland Business Chamber members they were the first audience to hear her priorities as a minister in a government committed to cutting red tape and regulations. She brandished her liberalising credentials, saying Flexible labour markets are the ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    6 days ago
  • Why Newshub failed
    Chris Trotter writes – TO UNDERSTAND WHY NEWSHUB FAILED, it is necessary to understand how TVNZ changed. Up until 1989, the state broadcaster had been funded by a broadcasting licence fee, collected from every citizen in possession of a television set, supplemented by a relatively modest (compared ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    6 days ago
  • Māori Party on the warpath against landlords and seabed miners – let’s see if mystical creature...
    Bob Edlin writes  –  The Māori Party has been busy issuing a mix of warnings and threats as its expresses its opposition to interest deductibility for landlords and the plans of seabed miners. It remains to be seen whether they  follow the example of indigenous litigants in Australia, ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    6 days ago
  • There’s a name for this
    Every year, in the Budget, Parliament forks out money to government agencies to do certain things. And every year, as part of the annual review cycle, those agencies are meant to report on whether they have done the things Parliament gave them that money for. Agencies which consistently fail to ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • Echoes of 1968 in 2024?  Pocock on the repetitive problems of the New Left
    Mike Grimshaw writes – Recent events in American universities point to an underlying crisis of coherent thinking, an issue that increasingly affects the progressive left across the Western world. This of course is nothing new as anyone who can either remember or has read of the late ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    6 days ago
  • Two bar blues
    The thing about life’s little victories is that they can be followed by a defeat.Reader Darryl told me on Monday night:Test again Dave. My “head cold” last week became COVID within 24 hours, and is still with me. I hear the new variants take a bit longer to show up ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    6 days ago
  • Bernard's Top 10 @ 10 'pick 'n' mix' for March 13
    TL;DR: My top 10 news and analysis links this morning include:Today’s must-read: Angus Deaton on rethinking his economics IMFLocal scoop: The people behind Tamarind, the firm that left a $500m cleanup bill for taxpayers at Taranaki’s Tui oil well, are back operating in Taranaki under a different company name. Jonathan ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    6 days ago

  • Positive progress for social worker workforce
    New Zealand’s social workers are qualified, experienced, and more representative of the communities they serve, Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston says. “I want to acknowledge and applaud New Zealand’s social workers for the hard work they do, providing invaluable support for our most vulnerable. “To coincide with World ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 hours ago
  • Minister confirms reduced RUC rate for PHEVs
    Cabinet has agreed to a reduced road user charge (RUC) rate for plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. Owners of PHEVs will be eligible for a reduced rate of $38 per 1,000km once all light electric vehicles (EVs) move into the RUC system from 1 April.  ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 hours ago
  • Trade access to overseas markets creates jobs
    Minister of Agriculture and Trade, Todd McClay, says that today’s opening of Riverland Foods manufacturing plant in Christchurch is a great example of how trade access to overseas markets creates jobs in New Zealand.  Speaking at the official opening of this state-of-the-art pet food factory the Minister noted that exports ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 hours ago
  • NZ and Chinese Foreign Ministers hold official talks
    Minister of Foreign Affairs Winston Peters met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Wellington today. “It was a pleasure to host Foreign Minister Wang Yi during his first official visit to New Zealand since 2017. Our discussions were wide-ranging and enabled engagement on many facets of New Zealand’s relationship with China, including trade, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    21 hours ago
  • Kāinga Ora instructed to end Sustaining Tenancies
    Kāinga Ora – Homes & Communities has been instructed to end the Sustaining Tenancies Framework and take stronger measures against persistent antisocial behaviour by tenants, says Housing Minister Chris Bishop. “Earlier today Finance Minister Nicola Willis and I sent an interim Letter of Expectations to the Board of Kāinga Ora. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Speech to Auckland Business Chamber: Growth is the answer
    Tēna koutou katoa. Greetings everyone. Thank you to the Auckland Chamber of Commerce and the Honourable Simon Bridges for hosting this address today. I acknowledge the business leaders in this room, the leaders and governors, the employers, the entrepreneurs, the investors, and the wealth creators. The coalition Government shares your ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Singapore rounds out regional trip
    Minister Winston Peters completed the final leg of his visit to South and South East Asia in Singapore today, where he focused on enhancing one of New Zealand’s indispensable strategic partnerships.      “Singapore is our most important defence partner in South East Asia, our fourth-largest trading partner and a ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Minister van Velden represents New Zealand at International Democracy Summit
    Minister of Internal Affairs and Workplace Relations and Safety, Hon. Brooke van Velden, will travel to the Republic of Korea to represent New Zealand at the Third Summit for Democracy on 18 March. The summit, hosted by the Republic of Korea, was first convened by the United States in 2021, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Insurance Council of NZ Speech, 7 March 2024, Auckland
    ICNZ Speech 7 March 2024, Auckland  Acknowledgements and opening  Mōrena, ngā mihi nui. Ko Andrew Bayly aho, Nor Whanganui aho.  Good morning, it’s a privilege to be here to open the ICNZ annual conference, thank you to Mark for the Mihi Whakatau  My thanks to Tim Grafton for inviting me ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Five-year anniversary of Christchurch terror attacks
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Lead Coordination Minister Judith Collins have expressed their deepest sympathy on the five-year anniversary of the Christchurch terror attacks. “March 15, 2019, was a day when families, communities and the country came together both in sorrow and solidarity,” Mr Luxon says.  “Today we pay our respects to the 51 shuhada ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Speech for Financial Advice NZ Conference 5 March 2024
    Speech for Financial Advice NZ Conference 5 March 2024  Acknowledgements and opening  Morena, Nga Mihi Nui.  Ko Andrew Bayly aho, Nor Whanganui aho. Thanks Nate for your Mihi Whakatau  Good morning. It’s a pleasure to formally open your conference this morning. What a lovely day in Wellington, What a great ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Early visit to Indonesia strengthens ties
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters held discussions in Jakarta today about the future of relations between New Zealand and South East Asia’s most populous country.   “We are in Jakarta so early in our new government’s term to reflect the huge importance we place on our relationship with Indonesia and South ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • China Foreign Minister to visit
    Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Winston Peters has announced that the Foreign Minister of China, Wang Yi, will visit New Zealand next week.  “We look forward to re-engaging with Foreign Minister Wang Yi and discussing the full breadth of the bilateral relationship, which is one of New Zealand’s ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Minister opens new Auckland Rail Operations Centre
    Transport Minister Simeon Brown has today opened the new Auckland Rail Operations Centre, which will bring together KiwiRail, Auckland Transport, and Auckland One Rail to improve service reliability for Aucklanders. “The recent train disruptions in Auckland have highlighted how important it is KiwiRail and Auckland’s rail agencies work together to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Celebrating 10 years of Crankworx Rotorua
    The Government is proud to support the 10th edition of Crankworx Rotorua as the Crankworx World Tour returns to Rotorua from 16-24 March 2024, says Minister for Economic Development Melissa Lee.  “Over the past 10 years as Crankworx Rotorua has grown, so too have the economic and social benefits that ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Government delivering on tax commitments
    Legislation implementing coalition Government tax commitments and addressing long-standing tax anomalies will be progressed in Parliament next week, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. The legislation is contained in an Amendment Paper to the Taxation (Annual Rates for 2023–24, Multinational Tax, and Remedial Matters) Bill issued today.  “The Amendment Paper represents ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Significant Natural Areas requirement to be suspended
    Associate Environment Minister Andrew Hoggard has today announced that the Government has agreed to suspend the requirement for councils to comply with the Significant Natural Areas (SNA) provisions of the National Policy Statement for Indigenous Biodiversity for three years, while it replaces the Resource Management Act (RMA).“As it stands, SNAs ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Government classifies drought conditions in Top of the South as medium-scale adverse event
    Agriculture Minister Todd McClay has classified the drought conditions in the Marlborough, Tasman, and Nelson districts as a medium-scale adverse event, acknowledging the challenging conditions facing farmers and growers in the district. “Parts of Marlborough, Tasman, and Nelson districts are in the grip of an intense dry spell. I know ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Government partnership to tackle $332m facial eczema problem
    The Government is helping farmers eradicate the significant impact of facial eczema (FE) in pastoral animals, Agriculture Minister Todd McClay announced.  “A $20 million partnership jointly funded by Beef + Lamb NZ, the Government, and the primary sector will save farmers an estimated NZD$332 million per year, and aims to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • NZ, India chart path to enhanced relationship
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters has completed a successful visit to India, saying it was an important step in taking the relationship between the two countries to the next level.   “We have laid a strong foundation for the Coalition Government’s priority of enhancing New Zealand-India relations to generate significant future benefit for both countries,” says Mr Peters, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Ruapehu Alpine Lifts bailout the last, say Ministers
    Cabinet has agreed to provide $7 million to ensure the 2024 ski season can go ahead on the Whakapapa ski field in the central North Island but has told the operator Ruapehu Alpine Lifts it is the last financial support it will receive from taxpayers. Cabinet also agreed to provide ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Govt takes action to drive better cancer services
    Health Minister Dr Shane Reti says the launch of a new mobile breast screening unit in Counties Manukau reinforces the coalition Government’s commitment to drive better cancer services for all New Zealanders. Speaking at the launch of the new mobile clinic, Dr Reti says it’s a great example of taking ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Govt takes action to drive better cancer services
    Health Minister Dr Shane Reti says the launch of a new mobile breast screening unit in Counties Manukau reinforces the coalition Government’s commitment to drive better cancer services for all New Zealanders. Speaking at the launch of the new mobile clinic, Dr Reti says it’s a great example of taking ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Work begins on SH29 upgrades near Tauriko
    Unlocking economic growth and land for housing are critical elements of the Government’s plan for our transport network, and planned upgrades to State Highway 29 (SH29) near Tauriko will deliver strongly on those priorities, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “The SH29 upgrades near Tauriko will improve safety at the intersections ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Work begins on SH29 upgrades near Tauriko
    Unlocking economic growth and land for housing are critical elements of the Government’s plan for our transport network, and planned upgrades to State Highway 29 (SH29) near Tauriko will deliver strongly on those priorities, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “The SH29 upgrades near Tauriko will improve safety at the intersections ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Fresh produce price drop welcome
    Lower fruit and vegetable prices are welcome news for New Zealanders who have been doing it tough at the supermarket, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. Stats NZ reported today the price of fruit and vegetables has dropped 9.3 percent in the 12 months to February 2024.  “Lower fruit and vege ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Statement to the 68th United Nations Commission on the Status of Women
    Tēnā koutou katoa and greetings to you all.  Chair, I am honoured to address the sixty-eighth session of the Commission on the Status of Women. I acknowledge the many crises impacting the rights of women and girls. Heightened global tensions, war, climate related and humanitarian disasters, and price inflation all ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Speech to the 68th United Nations Commission on the Status of Women (CSW68)
    Tēnā koutou katoa and greetings to you all.  Chair, I am honoured to address the 68th session of the Commission on the Status of Women. I acknowledge the many crises impacting the rights of women and girls. Heightened global tensions, war, climate related and humanitarian disasters, and price inflation all ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Government backs rural led catchment projects
    The coalition Government is supporting farmers to enhance land management practices by investing $3.3 million in locally led catchment groups, Agriculture Minister Todd McClay announced. “Farmers and growers deliver significant prosperity for New Zealand and it’s vital their ongoing efforts to improve land management practices and water quality are supported,” ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Speech to Auckland Business Chamber
    Good evening everyone and thank you for that lovely introduction.   Thank you also to the Honourable Simon Bridges for the invitation to address your members. Since being sworn in, this coalition Government has hit the ground running with our 100-day plan, delivering the changes that New Zealanders expect of us. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Commission’s advice on ETS settings tabled
    Recommendations from the Climate Change Commission for New Zealand on the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) auction and unit limit settings for the next five years have been tabled in Parliament, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts says. “The Commission provides advice on the ETS annually. This is the third time the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Government lowering building costs
    The coalition Government is beginning its fight to lower building costs and reduce red tape by exempting minor building work from paying the building levy, says Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk. “Currently, any building project worth $20,444 including GST or more is subject to the building levy which is ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Trustee tax change welcomed
    Proposed changes to tax legislation to prevent the over-taxation of low-earning trusts are welcome, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. The changes have been recommended by Parliament’s Finance and Expenditure Committee following consideration of submissions on the Taxation (Annual Rates for 2023–24, Multinational Tax, and Remedial Matters) Bill. “One of the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Minister’s Ramadan message
    Assalaamu alaikum. السَّلَام عليكم In light of the holy month of Ramadan, I want to extend my warmest wishes to our Muslim community in New Zealand. Ramadan is a time for spiritual reflection, renewed devotion, perseverance, generosity, and forgiveness.  It’s a time to strengthen our bonds and appreciate the diversity ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
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  • Minister appoints new NZTA Chair
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