So What Happens To Russia?

Written By: - Date published: 11:39 am, May 9th, 2022 - 57 comments
Categories: energy, International, Peace, Russia, war - Tags:

The commercial parts of Russia’s state will do very well with plenty of customers remaining for its oil and gas. It’s $3-$4 a litre 91 everyone. Everything else in Russia is ruined.

We are seeing, slowly but perfectly surely, the United States and the European Union get closer and closer to a full military confrontation with Russia.

There’s no winners but there is a likelihood that one side will be defeated more than the other. We don’t have to look back to the ‘nation building’ failures of Iraq or Afghanistan too far back.

Russia will continue to bomb Ukrainian Donbass cities and towns into concrete dust, just like Aleppo. Everyone should take a moment to admire the heroics of the Ukrainian military and their determination and skill, but they will be ground down no matter what military weapons are supplied to them. “They made a desert”, said the Roman historian Tacitus, “and called it peace”. Putin already has control of the coal, iron ore and steel factories and he will bank it. Putin now controls what he sought, even if he needs his military to defend it for many years. Ukraine will keep the far less productive remainder and that will be that. A Russified eastern Ukraine is all that is needed to achieve sufficient victory.

But this is a perverse win for the Ukrainian leadership as well as to NATO. A Russian occupation of Donbass would be incalculably expensive, because the Ukrainians are clear they will always and forever attack to get it back now. There is never going to be peace for Ukraine while Russia occupies any part of its former boundary. Perhaps Putin had in mind the Warsaw Pact in which the Soviet Union ruled over many European nation-states. Now that was expensive, but it was nothing like a zone under perpetual internal rebellion and armed to the teeth by NATO and other partners on the lookout for any gathering of generals or wayward Russian naval ship. Ukraine may become the large version of Mariupol: used to drain Russia dry.

A natural expansion of the conflict is for the EU’s trade benefits to expand to include the United States and Canada; the elision of a defence pact into a common trade arrangement. Even the Republicans would see that coming.

To humiliate and bring Russia low is the apparent strategy of Europe and the United States. Remove foreign investment and the key investors that would have developed more oil and gas fields. Make capital very very hard to acquire. Stunt their modernisation even as the war deepens global scarcity. Bring to nothing all further tech transfers. Kill their markets even where possible oil and gas. Open the doors to all their top talent and their young sportspeople. Let the occupying force burn itself to ash. Let it take Donbass and at the same time consign itself to the third world for any future markets. Let Russia be made low. It’s very 1920.

It will take years, but Russia’s internal repression will fold  into collapse: just ask the Soviets.

Once a territory + compensation deal is reached as it will do, the world is left with a rebuild plan on a scale of Germany after WW2. But there is not yet any sign that “nationbuilding” is in the offer from the United States or anyone else. The great majority of remaining Ukraine orbits tighter around Europe and the resource-rich remainder snugs into Russia. What’s fairly likely is now that the Ukrainians will not let up as they never have since 2014, and any Russian governance claims to Donbass statehood will be weak and militarily contested as far as the eye can see. Dark.  Humanitarian crisis far larger than that from Syria, but by tens of millions into Europe.

China at 4-5% GDP growth will figure that it needs the capital and customers of the United States and Europe more than it needs the coal and gas of Russia. China will I’m pretty confident figure a different path to India, and follow the money of those who can buy its Gucci handbags, Tesla cars and Apple phones. In a decade perhaps a sufficiently weakened and poor Russia splits apart that that west of the Urals orientates to the European Union.

A smaller, weaker, more resentful and bitter Russia emerges no matter who leads it. Russia’s  core markets become Africa and India: poor people buying bulk energy commodities.

NATO will emerge stronger and Russia weaker, by the end of this year. China isn’t going to get much out of it other than more influence over the remainder of a truly broken Russia. China will not sustain the ambitions of its middle class trying to find customers in Russia, but they will find them in Europe, the United States, Australia, Japan, Korea, and South East Asia. Russia is going to feel the hurt faster than US hegemony declines.

We will all cry out as our mortgage rates hit 5% and petrol hits $3 and our grocery bill hits $200 a week – many governments will fall on it including our own.

Russia’s war has weakened us all.

But the richest countries overall will get richer and the poorer ones will get a whole bunch poorer. While we stick close to Australia, United States, Japan and China as our core trading partners we are on balance going to do fine out of the Russian invasion.

Russia: not so much.

57 comments on “So What Happens To Russia? ”

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  1. Visubversa 1
    9 May 2022 at 11:50 am

    Mortgage rates were 6% for decades. Banks took money in at 3% and lent it out at 6%.

    In the bad days of the mid 1980's I was paying 17%. I was lucky, I had a fixed Housing New Zealand mortgage because I bought in an area that Government and Council were wanting to "re-develop " after a motorway extension. Others were paying over 20%.

  2. lprent 2
    9 May 2022 at 12:52 pm

    I can't see many good effects from this conflict.

    The main one will be that the founding principle of the UN founding is upheld. The same one that was the principle of the first Gulf war. That aggressive states grabbing and annexing territory that they have no long claims to are not rewarded – regardless of what stupid excuse they use.

    The effect on the developed economies is likely to be of short duration. A few years. Those are deep economies witha immense resilence. They will move to other sources of supply. Unlike Russia.

    The effects on Russia are likely to be far worse than their late 90s economic issues. They are unlikely to have any real allies.

    Basically no state including (and especially) the Chinese like the idea of a superior military power annexing by force. Not their neighours like the Georgians or Amenians or anyone else to the south or east.

    Their sympathetic acquaintances like India will mainly be interested in making a buck off them. Even then I suspect the seabourne shipping is going to be tricky with insurance. Goods travelling and from Russia will be subject to sanctions, and intercepts by Ukrainians.

    The Donbas, if Russia manages to hold it, won't be worth holding. Non moveable assets are just targets for missiles and artillery.

    It seems unlikely at present that Russia will be able to seize enough of a buffer to make that difficult. Regardless it will be a porous border for supporting partisans and infiltrating military units.

    Messy – a seriously stupid war of aggression master minded by a military and political idiot.

    • Ghostwhowalksnz 2.1
      9 May 2022 at 3:48 pm

      And nato member Turkeys 1970s invasion of its small neighbour Cyprus ( a commonwealth member) where it remains in occupation of its republic of Northern Cyprus to this day.

      The UN security council didnt give George Bush his authorisation to invade Iraq but he and Blair ( plus Poland!) went ahead anyway. No consequences for US and UK and no WMD stockpiles or production found either.

      Its quite incredible to ignore the history of conflict since WW2 and somehow strew rose petals over Natos actions

  3. Margaret 3
    9 May 2022 at 1:03 pm

    Listening to a American spokesperson on You Tube saying they thought China was having these lockdownd simply to avoid having to send stock to America and showing already empty shelves.

    Wouldn't worry me if China brought American politicians to their knees. One good turn always deserves another.

    This is Americas proxy war with Russia using Ukraine because they don't give a shit about people.

    American politicians want to rule the world

    • Populuxe1 3.1
      9 May 2022 at 2:05 pm

      Who annexed whose territory and shelled whose civilians again?

    • tsmithfield 3.2
      9 May 2022 at 2:31 pm

      Yes, the equivalent is a kid being bullied at school. The kid (i.e. Ukraine) decides to bring his big brother (i.e. NATO) along who helps him absolutely thrash the bully (i.e. Russia).

      This type of situation is something Russia should have thought about before deciding attack Ukraine. So, Russia really has no reason to complain that NATO is helping Ukraine. Russia can always resolve the issue by withdrawing its troops.

      • Blazer 3.2.1
        10 May 2022 at 8:55 am

        This conflict is about how much longer the world can tolerate the biggest bully of…all.

        With visionaries like Sleepy Joe and Bojo in charge the future looks……!!

    • Belladonna 3.3
      9 May 2022 at 5:03 pm

      American politicians, by and large, have a profound disinterest in the rest of the world. They are always interested only in what happens within the borders of the US (and even then, most interested in the contiguous states).

  4. Stuart Munro 4
    9 May 2022 at 1:20 pm

    The Allies took a pretty pessimistic view of Ukrainian military capabilities as the war opened, expecting that their conventional forces would be overwhelmed, and, in spite of spirited resistance, any material aid would rapidly end up in Russian hands. Russia expected on the ground delays might cost them another 5-6 days.

    That changed about a month ago, and the allies began supplying heavy weapons sufficient to neutralize the Russian advantage, which have now made their way to forces to the northern end of the Donbas sector, where Ukraine is rapidly pushing back invading forces. Russia can no longer win, but it is crucial for Ukraine that they regain their southern coastal territories, both for defense, and so that their economy is not altogether wrecked.

    A Russian recovery really depends on how they deal with the Soviet rump they failed to suppress back in 1990. If they retain the dregs of the current kleptocracy, it will scapegoat reformers and refuseniks as they retreat backwards into the dark ages they never fully escaped. But if they embrace a genuine, less bellicose, reforming democracy there is every reason they should rise again just as Germany did after WWII.

    The real question is whether the failed Putin regime will cling to power until they lose Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kaliningrad, and the Kurils.

  5. Sanctuary 5
    9 May 2022 at 1:29 pm

    Russia is now something much more recognisable as it's 19th century Tsarist incarnation – the deeply corrupt, autocratic, and almost comically reactionary state so dispised by the liberal British Empire.

    Russia has gone from being perceived as having the second best army in the world to having the second best army in the Ukraine, and the long term strategic ramifications of that are profound. The only thing now guaranteeing the integrity of Russia's huge (and disputed) borders are nuclear weapons that many people now suspect have been rusting away quietly in their silos for almost half a century. Already, Japan has again started to refer to the Kuril Islands as "occupied" Japanese territory.

    And yes – NATO is back, but with important changes. Whereas it used to exist for Europe "to keep the Americans in, the Russians out and the Germans down" and was an Atlanticist Anglo-America project in orientation it is now becoming a much more middle European orientated alliance and is surely much more about "to keep the Americans in, the Russians down and the Germans up". Who thought we'd live to see the day we'd all cheer German rearmament?

    Zelensky, with Churchillian perspicacity, knows the only way he can win the war against Russia is to bring NATO into direct confrontation with Russia into what is already a second Crimean war that Russia will lose. Like the first Crimean war in the 1850s, this current war will decisively weaken Russia for decades to come and possibly even force Russia's elites to confront the huge weaknesses of their corrupt kleptocratic autocracy.

    • Tony Veitch (not etc.) 5.1
      9 May 2022 at 4:23 pm

      I think you are absolutely right, Sanctuary, but I do so hope this Second Crimean War is conducted with a tad more efficiency that the first – which was an almost complete fiasco – the allies only won because the Russians were a little more incompetent than them.

  6. tsmithfield 6
    9 May 2022 at 2:10 pm

    My post below is based on my general obsession and heaps of reading and viewing around this conflict. No links with this at the moment. But I am happy to provide sources as and when people want them.

    Advantage, I agree the Russians are applying a scorched earth strategy. I am not sure they have the resources to continue that for too long.

    At the moment, in the Donbas, the Ukrainians are skillfully applying a fluid defence. That means they will defend and deplete the attacking force for as long as possible before retreating to another prepared defensive position and restart the process. That strategy means the Russians are constantly advancing against heavily defended positions, which is very costly in terms of attrition of equipment and troops.

    Around Kharkiv and towards Izyum, the Ukrainians are successfully counter-attacking at the moment and threatening to cut off Russian supply lines. It appears that the US artillery is having a major effect there as it has superior range to the Russian gear, and the Ukrainians have been provided with anti-battery radar that makes the US artillery much more accurate in terms of targeting Russian artillery.

    The head of the Wagner group recently made a comment that the Russians really need 600-800000 troops to control the area they want to take. That is not a realistic option for Russia at the moment.

    So, while Russia may take areas, they haven't got the forces to hold those areas. So, they will always be vulnerable to Ukrainian counter-attack.

    So, it seems clear that the Russians need a lot more infantry. And they need to be able to equip all the new soldiers. Since Russian soldiers have been observed with equipment such as old style 303s from WW1/2. They also need to replace all the gear they have lost. However, a lot of their more complex stuff has western electronics which they obviously have difficulty in sourcing due to the sanctions.

    At their big parade on May 9th Putin may well declare war on Ukraine or "Nazis" everywhere, and look to mobilize more troops. The problem with that, (even being acknowledged by some Russian media) is that it will take a long time to train the troops, let alone equip them.

    One of the Russian commentators was talking about the need to introduce "military socialism". That is, bringing all industry under the control of the government for the purpose of ramping up military production. If this were to happen, Russia would essentially become a big version of North Korea. But this is probably what they would need to do to meet their strategic goals.

    However, their problem is that such a move may dramatically cut their income. For instance, I expect Germany would have no option but to cut off all imports of hydrocarbons from Russia.

    So, I think Russia is stuck in a situation that they haven't got enough military resources to escalate the conflict (in conventional terms, anyway), and if they declared war and went onto a full war footing with their industries then I think a lot of their income to do that would be cut off.

    Hence, I think they are stuck in a situation where it is very difficult for them to do anything other than escalate the war in a very scary way. However, I hope it never comes to that.

  7. roblogic 7
    9 May 2022 at 2:15 pm

    The march of progress advances one funeral at a time. Especially looking forward to the end of Putin. Perhaps we will see the rise of more breakaway states like Chechnya, and the satellite states (Belarus, Kazakhstan) lose interest in being Russian lapdogs. Hopefully there will be a way for the disputed regions of Ukraine to be demilitarised and given some independence apart from the grasping avarice of the Kremlin.

    The best future IMO would be a renewal of the hopeful post Soviet days. Perhaps western Russia becoming a civilsed neighbour to Europe, and eastern Russia recognising its ties to Asia matter more than diktats from Moscow. Break up the whole monolithic dinosaur.

    The worst future would be a widening theater of war, tactical nukes, and Russia becoming an insular pariah state akin to North Korea

    • Subliminal 7.1
      9 May 2022 at 2:29 pm

      You see rob, you have totally captured the West centred view that has led us to this place. The collapse of the USSR led to a collapse in Russian life expectancy not even matched by covd. Yet we laud this time as a time of hope. Just as all our good times seem to be on the back of suffering sonewhere.

      • roblogic 7.1.1
        9 May 2022 at 2:36 pm

        Agree about the general failure of the supposed free market reforms in Russia. But I was referring to a brief moment of time after the fall of the Berlin Wall and there was talk of prestroika and glasnost and a changing attitude in East/West relations… all turned sour in the end 😢

        • Stuart Munro 7.1.1.1
          9 May 2022 at 3:37 pm

          My Russian friends particularly resent Yeltsin & Putin, who turned Russia away from representative democracy and back to the Soviet style oligarchy. Absent the kleptocrats, the early enthusiasm for democracy might well have seen the country through the pain of the reforms.

          • Ghostwhowalksnz 7.1.1.1.1
            9 May 2022 at 4:00 pm

            Maybe you havent noticed but most of Asia are linear democracies with the same party winning over decades and while democratic the norm is for a party change to be either brief or unheard of.

            The idea that Russia would suddenly be like Germany with a plethora of parties and governments formed after 6 months of negotiations is absurd. ( 12 months for others)

            Even eastern Europe is trending toward a linear democracy model with a single party winning/ manipulating to stay in power.

            Apart from Czechoslovakia pre war the Poles , Hungarians and so on were all dictatorships

            • Stuart Munro 7.1.1.1.1.1
              9 May 2022 at 11:09 pm

              The issues confronting Russia, and those confronting most of Asia are presently rather different.

              Structural reform is one way of breaking out of the dead end follies that beset Russia, leaving it broken and backward.

              It would suffice to break the stranglehold of the former soviet office holders, a species of reform that the likes of Navalny and his supporters found pretty palatable.

              It is unlikely that anyone is going to dictate a solution to Russia – but it will get no international respect or cooperation while it persists in Putin's follies.

              • RedLogix …
                9 May 2022 at 11:25 pm

                Consider how in the aftermath of WW2 the Allies dictated to defeated Germany that it would repudiate the Nazi era. With an extraordinary success.

                The same was never done after the collapse of the marxist catastrophes in Russian and China – and it is my view that the current regimes in both nations still point to the toxic legacy of Lenin and Mao for their political legitimacy. Even if they have long ditched their policies.

                And until they are compelled to do so the brutality and paranoia of this decrepit, decaying history will continue to seep into current events.

                • Ghostwhowalksnz …
                  10 May 2022 at 8:36 am

                  Germany and Japan were under military occupation for 11 and 7 years respectively to 'expunge their past'

                  The last military high commisioners left Germany in May 1955

                  So your suggestions is for western countries to occupy and control Russia and China is workable how ? Clueless is what I would describe it

                • KJT …
                  10 May 2022 at 10:04 am

                  You missed at least four decades of history there.

                  Russia has been predatory Capitalist since the 1990's.

                  If the "West" had repeated the Marshall plan, instead of supporting ex KGB and other Soviet elites in burgling the place, they may have had results like Germany and Japan.

                  • Ghostwhowalksnz …
                    10 May 2022 at 11:05 am

                    That doesnt make any sense . Germany was devastated by Allied bombing and the recovery through Marshall plan ( almost entirely US) was because of the cold war split in two of Germany.

                    Its laughable that , even though it wasnt devastated by war in 1990 that western taxpayers were going to give 'magic funding' to change the then unknown political future. Having had a Leninist-Party-state system avoiding capitalism wasnt even possible.

                    It seems that anything about Russia brings out the 'fruitcake' in people

                    • KJT …
                      10 May 2022 at 2:42 pm

                      "It seems that anything about Russia brings out the 'fruitcake' in people".

                      It certainly does!

                • Stuart Munro …
                  10 May 2022 at 4:40 pm

                  Yes. I don't think contemporary Germans resent it at all, so it can't have been too onerous. But I can't see anyone volunteering to do as much for Russia – though the consequences of long term misgovernance are if anything, more serious in this case.

                  • RedLogix …
                    11 May 2022 at 8:11 am

                    The important difference is that Stalin and Mao largely inflicted their horrors on their own people. The collapse of their evil regimes was brought about from their own internal contradictions and failures. There was no external invasion needed, no occupying force to impose change in the aftermath.

                    As a result there was never a de-marxification program, no truth and reconciliation, no open and final repudiation. Stalin's body for instance still remains interred in the walls of the Kremlin, Putin has been able to speak admiringly of him and the security organisations that were there core of Lenin and Stalin's terror – are still very much located at the core of politics in modern Russia.

                    Yes the people, the policies and acronyms have superficially changed with time, but the old culture of authoritarian paranoia and a ready willingness to resort to mass brutality as an instrument of state power has not.

                    • Ghostwhowalksnz …
                      11 May 2022 at 9:53 am

                      What a tired old Cold War warrior you are. It seems you feel that the Cold War ending without a military subjugation of Soviet Union was a mistake as it 'would have had better outcomes'

                      I think you have gone beyond the 'fruit cake' stage and its now nuts

      • Populuxe1 7.1.2
        9 May 2022 at 2:50 pm

        I thought the West centred view was a la Chomsky et al that the US was the Great Satan and nothing else in the world – not even a kleptocratic petro-oligarch who fancies himself a Tsar in all but name invading a sovereign neighbour – could be considered evil if some tortured, convoluted argument could be come up with to blame the US?

        • Blazer 7.1.2.1
          9 May 2022 at 10:14 pm

          Germany is a sovereign nation too.

          Biden said the U.S would 'stop' Nordstream2.

          • Populuxe1 7.1.2.1.1
            10 May 2022 at 2:01 am

            German Chancellor Scholz suspended certification of Nord Stream 2 on 22 February 2022. Sounds like Germany was exercising their sovereignty.

            • Blazer 7.1.2.1.1.1
              10 May 2022 at 8:44 am

              That is correct.

              The Q is why would Biden think he can impose his will on a sovereign…nation?

              • Ghostwhowalksnz …
                10 May 2022 at 11:09 am

                The Baltic sea pipelines only divert transit gas from Ukraine and Poland who get billions in transit fees as it passes through to Germany and the West .

                Its Poland and Ukraine who got the US to interfere in another countrys energy supply

              • Populuxe1 …
                10 May 2022 at 1:45 pm

                Of course it couldn't possibly be the case that Germany is committed to the principles of the European Union to the point of making sacrifices to be on the right side of history for once…

                • Ghostwhowalksnz …
                  10 May 2022 at 5:23 pm

                  Principles over gas pipelines, do tell.

                  Let them of course use European Unity as the reason to stop all Russian gas supplies immediately .

                  Thats so funny how you make up principles for others when they have self interest first. We have long seen migration, financial standards ignored at will by the EU members

  8. Subliminal 8
    9 May 2022 at 2:21 pm

    Youve got to be joking. China will just kiss goodbye Russia?? When exactly the same narrative is spun for Taiwan as we are faced with Ukraine? The world has changed and there is no path back. Biden has made clear he doesnt do diplomacy except at the end of a gun. Continuing down the Ukraine path with regard to Taiwan will give a similar result. But then with all the armament CEOs and board members running US administrations, its hard to escape the feeling that they consider war a bonus

    • roblogic 8.1
      9 May 2022 at 2:30 pm

      Biden isn’t the one invading Ukraine
      China is not Russia
      Taiwan is not Ukraine

      Please change username to “Delusional”

    • Populuxe1 8.2
      9 May 2022 at 3:07 pm

      It's like you've conflated two completely different situations into some terrible false analogy because the West is opposed to both in different contexts or something…

  9. Populuxe1 9
    9 May 2022 at 2:32 pm

    I think this is an excellent analysis of why it's futile for some on the left to continue to frame Russia's invasion of Ukraine as justified by US militarism or imperialism, or NATO. Opinion | There Is No Left Position That Justifies Putin's Attack on Ukraine | David Ost (commondreams.org)

    • Ghostwhowalksnz 9.1
      9 May 2022 at 3:52 pm

      Who would justify an invasion. I thought at the beginning it would happen because

      1) His army isnt that great and the numbers mentioned by western experts that were on the border seemed to small

      2) Ukraine is large country and with 40 mill people its not some tiny place like Crimea

      3) he could lose – ask US about its exit recently from Afghanistan ( it took an idiot like Trump to get out, something even Obama never even tried)

    • Blazer 9.2
      9 May 2022 at 10:12 pm

      Tell it to…Frank…

      'Pope Francis recently shocked many by positing parity between Vladimir Putin and Russia on one hand, and Ukraine and NATO on the other. The Holy Father insisted both are to blame for the raging war. In stark contrast to the “Holy Alliance” of Saint John Paul II, Ronald Reagan, and Margaret Thatcher who deployed a brilliant strategy to defeat Soviet communism, Jorge Mario Bergoglio has been channeling his youthful leftism again in a bumbling effort to relate to Russia.POPE FRANCIS SUGGESTS THE ‘BARKING OF NATO AT RUSSIA’S DOOR’ MAY HAVE FORCED PUTIN TO INVADE UKRAINE'

      Pope Francis blames the victim in Russia-Ukraine war (dialoguecentre.org)

      • Populuxe1 9.2.1
        10 May 2022 at 1:58 am

        Ah yes, that notable bastion of socialism the Roman Catholic Church…

  10. aj 10
    9 May 2022 at 6:27 pm

    Adding to some of the outrageous predictions above, in some western countries by 31/12/2022:

    • Bread will be 5 times what it is today.
    • Beef will be unaffordable and scarce.
    • Gasoline US$4L and scarce.
    • Rolling blackouts.
    • Heating vs. food will be an issue.
    • Riots everywhere.
    • Scud 10.1
      9 May 2022 at 9:10 pm

      Well, if the Ukrainian Farmers don't get this yrs grain crop sowed & on top of Russia blockading it's remaining Grain Export Port of Odesa.

      The bread price is going to be the least of our worries, given how much of Ukranie's grain crop is rely on in the Middle East with some countries it's around the 80% mark ie Egypt, Syria, Iraq, Iran & the rest above 80-100% ie Lebanon at 100% if it's silos have rebuilt.

      Drought conditions are already appearing in parts of Africa & on the Sub Continent. That would normally grown grain crops.

      Australian grain growers would get through this yrs winter grain crop, but next yr onwards may not be good? As not sure how much grain is grown in NZ these days as most Canterbury is now converted to Dairying or further sth around Gore or Balfour areas these days.

      I think those assumptions of prices to be a tad low given the current situation.

  11. SPC 11
    10 May 2022 at 12:27 pm

    Putin's immediate legacy will be to have revitalised NATO, and it did not have to be this way.

    Germany's position on NATO was up for grabs in 2024 (2014 commitment to spend 2% GDP on defence – was looking unlikely to be met, still at 1% in 2021) after the planned uptake of Nordstrom. All Putin had to do was stick to diplomacy.

    The chances of an EU having defence and trade partnerships with NATO (Norway/UK/Canada/USA) to the west and Russia to the east have diminished. But it still makes practical commonsense. As does determining borders after break up of nations via plebiscite (Yugoslavia/USSR) rather than war.

    The problem for Russia is that its isolation – and continuing overemphasis on military/security will further compound its internal decline (investment in its people and modernising its civilian/economic society).

    • Ghostwhowalksnz 11.1
      10 May 2022 at 1:54 pm

      The Plebiscites in Yugoslavia happened after the federal states declared independence

      Nato remain in occupation of part of Serbia , 20 years after the war, breaking its own rules about changes to borders cant happen by military force.

      Nato member Turkey remain in occupation of part of its neighbour Cyprus, with its proxy state Republic of Northern Cyprus maintained by force and in contravention of a UN Security council resolution

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Security_Council_Resolution_353#

  12. Cantabrian 12
    10 May 2022 at 11:35 pm

    Come on Advantage, yours is a flawed analysis. As one of Russian/Ukrainian heritage, the main task must be to remove Russia from being a militaristic society. The siloviki are a mixture of FSB, SVR, GRU and Vory criminals running the country in their interests. The massive amount of security forces far dwarfs those of the West. The best thing for everyone would be for Russia to split. Peter the Great's westernizing vision could be realised in a democratic European Russia. There are enough democrats in the big cities to make this happen. Then we could hive off all the would be despots to Siberia. Their capital could be Novosibirsk or Irkutsk. A divided Russia is a good Russia.

    • Ad 12.1
      11 May 2022 at 6:45 am

      Covered your point:

      "In a decade perhaps a sufficiently weakened and poor Russia splits apart that that west of the Urals orientates to the European Union."

      Though not sure wishing for another post-Yugoslav Balkan war is useful at the moment.

      • Ghostwhowalksnz 12.1.1
        11 May 2022 at 8:48 pm

        The reality is every end of empire leads to border wars . Its inevitable

        The end of German and Austrian empires led to a range of border wars across eastern europe.

        Even Poland and the new Soviet Union 100 years ago had a series of wars over …guess what Ukraine.. The Poles wouldnt accept the Versailles drawn Curzon Line between what was Polish and Ukrainian speaking areas. Historically the Polish nobility and upper class 'controlled' the eastern Ukraine under the Russian and Austrian imperial systems and they wanted to keep it that way

        Lviv and a big chunk became part of Poland, until Stalin got it back in his deal with Hitler

    • Ghostwhowalksnz 12.2
      11 May 2022 at 4:40 pm

      There are enough democrats in the big cities ?

      Why is you dont even check.

      The Communists ( both parties combined was around 20%) vote far exceeded the Liberal Democrats at around 6%

      European Russia has 110 mill people with maybe 20 mill in the biggest cities , the Moscow ' city and oblast' has 16 mill. St Petersburg has 5 mill with another 1.5 mill in its oblast

      Its a complete fantasy

      • Cantabrian 12.2.1
        11 May 2022 at 6:47 pm

        Come on Ghost. you can’t go by those stats. Given free and fair elections the figures would be radically different. You forget other European centres – Ekaterinburg. Volgograd, Kazan, Kaliningrad. The Putin approval rating figures are grossly inflated. Given the huge numbers. of security forces watching, what Russian would vote against Putin. As in the Soviet Union people keep their private opinions to themselves.

  13. Populuxe1 13
    11 May 2022 at 5:14 pm

    Ah yes, the famously free, fair and transparent Russian elections…. If I posted every critical article about the 2021 legislature elections alone I'd be pinged for spamming. Even the Communist Party disputed it.

    • Ghostwhowalksnz 13.1
      11 May 2022 at 8:41 pm

      Let me guess . You live/socialise in maybe a Grey Lynn or Miramar type urban milieu and cant ever understand why people dont think like you do.

      Look at even US where theres was some considerable dispute over the results (not that I agree) that because there was disagreement by the losers MUST mean that they are right and it was rigged , Surely.

      Your logic is nonsense

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  • Ministers are not above the law after all
    Back in April, the High Court surprised everyone by ruling that Ministers are above the law, at least as far as the Waitangi Tribunal is concerned. The reason for this ruling was "comity" - the idea that the different branches of government shouldn't interfere with each other's functions. Which makes ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    9 hours ago

  • NZTA takes the wheel after govt gives it the road map for regional roads (and puts a speed governor ...
    Buzz from the Beehive  Tolling was mentioned when Transport Minister Simeon Brown announced the government was re-introducing the Roads of National Significance (RoNS) programme, with 15 “crucial” projects to support economic growth and regional development across New Zealand. All RoNS would be four-laned, grade-separated highways, and all funding, financing, and ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    10 hours ago

  • Change in Catalonia?
    or the past 14 years, ever since the Spanish government cheated on an autonomy deal, Catalonia has reliably given pro-independence parties a majority of seats in their regional parliament. But now that seems to be over. Catalans went to the polls yesterday, and stripped the Catalan parties of their majority. ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    10 hours ago

  • Having an enrolment date is not depriving anyone of a vote
    David Farrar writes –  Radio NZ report: Labour Party leader Chris Hipkins said the Electoral Commission should make sure the system ran smoothly and “taking away the right of thousands of people to vote” was not the answer. “Thousands of people enroled and voted on the day. If ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    13 hours ago

  • Perhaps house prices don’t always go up
    Don Brash writes –  There was a rather revealing headline in the Herald on Sunday today (12 May). It read “One in 8 Auckland homes on market were bought during boom, may now sell for loss”. The first line of text noted that “New data shows one in ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    13 hours ago

  • Can’t read, can’t write, can’t comprehend – and won’t think…?
    Mike Grimshaw writes –  At a time when universities are understandably nervous regarding the establishment of the University Advisory Group (UAG) and the Science System Advisory Group (SSAG) it may seem strange – or even fool-hardy – to state that there are long-standing issues in the tertiary sector ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    14 hours ago

  • Time for some perspective
    Lindsay Mitchell writes –  A lack of perspective can make something quite large or important seem small or irrelevant. Against a backdrop of high-profile, negative statistics it is easy to overlook the positive. For instance, the fact that 64 percent of Maori are employed is rarely reported. For ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    14 hours ago

  • Will NZ Herald’s ‘poor journalism’ cost lives?
    Earlier this year, the Herald ran a series of articles amounting to a sustained campaign against raised pedestrian crossings, by reporter Bernard Orsman. A key part of that campaign concerned the raised crossings being installed as part of the Pt Chevalier to Westmere project, with at least 10 articles over ...
    Greater AucklandBy Matt L
    18 hours ago

  • The Kaka’s diary for the week to May 19 and beyond
    TL;DR: The six key events to watch in Aotearoa-NZ’s political economy in the week to May 19 include:PM Christopher Luxon is expected to hold his weekly post-cabinet news conference at 4:00pm on Monday.Parliament is not sitting this week. It resumes next week for a two-week sitting session up to and ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    20 hours ago

  • Webworm Popup Photos!
    Hi,Thanks to all the beautiful Worms who came to the LA Webworm popup on Saturday.It was a way to celebrate the online store we launched last week — and it was super special.As I talk about a lot, I really value our community here — and it was a BLAST ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    20 hours ago

  • 2024 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #19
    A listing of 35 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, May 5, 2024 thru Sat, May 11, 2024. (Unfortunate) Story of the week "Grief that stops at despair is an ending that I and many others, most notably ...
    Skeptical Science
    1 day ago

  • The Gods Must Be Woke.
    Last night the largest solar storm in decades resulted in Aurorae being seen across Aotearoa, causing many to ask why?Why was the sky pink? What was all this stuff about the power grid? Have we, as so many have wondered since the election, reached the end of days?I had a ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    2 days ago

  • More road
    We have been on the road in England, squeezing down narrow lanes, flying up the M6, loving hedgerows and villages and cathedrals, liking the 21st century less.There have been moments when it’s felt like a movie trope. The pub in Exford, lovely seventeenth century bar, almost more dogs than people, ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    2 days ago

  • Seeing the Aurora Australis
    There’s a solar-storm on at the moment, and since the South Island is having a day and night with clear skies, that means Aurorae. I have just got back from a midnight visit to Tunnel Beach – southwards-looking over the Sea, and without the light pollution. Quite a few others ...
    A Phuulish FellowBy strda221
    2 days ago

  • Welcome to the current welfare mess
    Michael Bassett writes – I’m not sure that it’s much comfort to anyone to know that the post-Covid surge in violent crimes, gang activity, ram raids, random shootings, thuggery and stabbings is occurring in other countries as well as New Zealand. These days, wagging school, out-of-control welfare and ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    3 days ago

  • A shovel-ready autopsy
    Oliver Hartwich writes –  Cast your mind back to mid-December. A new Prime Minister had just been sworn in, the new Government started its 100-day programme, and Christmas was only days away.Amid all the haste, a report landed that would have deserved our attention.I am talking about the ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    3 days ago

  • Why we almost blacked out and how to fix it
    TL;DR: An unseasonally early icy blast at the same time as some long-overdue maintenance almost caused Aotearoa-NZ’s electricity system to black out this week. That’s because a quadropoly of gentailers1 have prioritised paying dividends from their rising profits and adding debt over investing in 1.5 GigaWatts of new wind farms ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    3 days ago

  • What Is Instagram Trying To Sell Us?
    Hi,Before we crack into today’s Webworm, I wanted to acknowledge the fact that Israel is pushing into Rafah. Over 100,000 Palestinians are now attempting to flee the one place that was deemed “safe”.Trouble is, the place they’re fleeing to is already destroyed. Total annihilation is the end goal here.“Israel is ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    3 days ago

  • Precious Little Excitement: Warner Brothers, Peter Jackson, and Gollum
    Back in February 2023, I made the cardinal mistake of getting my hopes up. Warner Brothers declared that fresh Middle-earth movies were in the works: https://phuulishfellow.wordpress.com/2023/02/24/it-never-rains-but-it-pours-warner-brothers-and-impending-tolkien-adaptations/ My assumption, based on which rights were available, and what had already been done, was that this was a stab at either the Angmar ...
    A Phuulish FellowBy strda221
    3 days ago

  • Do We Need a Population Census?
    ‘It has been said that figures rule the world. Maybe. I am quite sure that it is figures which show us whether it is being ruled well or badly.’ GoetheI was struck at a recent conference on equity for the elderly, how many presenters implicitly relied upon Statistics New Zealand. ...
    PunditBy Brian Easton
    3 days ago

  • No, the govt will not be cutting back on every budget – and the Defence vote is among those to be ...
    Buzz from the Beehive Reporting on defence spending late last year, RNZ said the coalition government will have to make some tough calls this term to help the force address staff shortages and ageing infrastructure. “These are huge, huge amounts of government spending. It’s a significant proportion of the government’s ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    3 days ago

  • The Treasury and productivity
    Late last week The Treasury released a new 40 page report on “The productivity slowdown: implications for the Treasury’s forecasts and projections” (productivity forecasts and projections that is, rather than any possible fiscal implications – the latter will, I guess, be articulated in the Budget documents). In short, if (as it has) ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago

  • The Controller and Auditor-General’s role
    Peter Dunne writes –  I am always wary when I hear that the Controller and Auditor-General has commented on or made recommendations to the government about an issue of public policy that does not relate strictly to public expenditure. According to the legislation, the role of the Controller ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago

  • More harm than good
    How Labour’s and National’s failure to move beyond neoliberalism has brought NZ to the brink of economic and cultural chaos   Chris Trotter writes –  TO START LOSING, so soon after you won, requires a special kind of political incompetence. At the heart of this Coalition ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago

  • Real reason Waitangi Tribunal could not summons Chhour
    And why did the Crown not challenge the Tribunal’s jurisdiction?   Gary Judd writes –  Retired District Court Judge, David Harvey, has posted on his A Halflings View Substack an excellent summary of Justice Isacs’ judgment declining to uphold the witness summons issued by the Waitangi Tribunal ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago

  • Losing confidence in the integrity of NZ elections
    Bryce Edwards writes – Do you believe New Zealand runs its general elections fairly and competently? As a voter, can you be confident that the votes on your ballot will be counted towards the final result?As a political scientist, I’ve been asked these questions many times and ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    4 days ago

  • Macklemore's Pro-Palestinian Protest.
    Macklemore isn’t someone I’d usually think about. Sure I liked his big hit from a few years back, everybody did it was catchy and cool with some memorable lines. But if I was going to think of artists who might speak out on political matters or world events, he wouldn’t ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    4 days ago

  • Gordon Campbell on miserly school lunches, and the banning of TikTok’s Gaza coverage
    Another week goes by in the Luxon government’s efforts to roll back the past 70 years of social progress. The school lunches programme is to be downgraded by $107 million, and women need bother their heads no longer about pay equity, let alone expect ACC to provide adequate sexual violence ...
    Gordon CampbellBy lyndon
    4 days ago

  • Weekly Roundup 10-May-2024
    Brrr, the first cold snap of the year. Hope you’re rugged up nice and warm. Here are some stories that caught our eye this week… This Week on Greater Auckland On Monday, we had a post from a new contributor, Connor Sharp, who dug into the public feedback ...
    Greater AucklandBy Greater Auckland
    4 days ago

  • The Hoon around the week to May 10
    Almost all of the Wellington City Council’s recommended zoning changes to allow many more apartments and townhouses in its inner-suburbs have been approved.Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The podcast above of the weekly ‘hoon’ webinar for subscribers features co-hosts and , along with regular guest on geopolitics, ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    4 days ago

  • Skeptical Science New Research for Week #19 2024
    Open access notables A Global Increase in Nearshore Tropical Cyclone Intensification, Balaguru et al., Earth's Future: Tropical Cyclones (TCs) inflict substantial coastal damages, making it pertinent to understand changing storm characteristics in the important nearshore region. Past work examined several aspects of TCs relevant for impacts in coastal regions. However, ...
    Skeptical Science
    4 days ago

  • Bryce Edwards: Losing confidence in the integrity of NZ elections
    Do you believe New Zealand runs its general elections fairly and competently? As a voter, can you be confident that the votes on your ballot will be counted towards the final result? As a political scientist, I’ve been asked these questions many times and always answered “yes”, with very few ...
    Democracy ProjectBy bryce.edwards
    4 days ago

  • The Song of Saqua: Volume VIII
    Thus far May has followed on from a quiet April in the blogging department, but in fairness, it has been another case of doing what I am supposed to be doing, namely writing original fiction. Plus reading. So don’t worry – I have been productive. But in order to reassure ...
    A Phuulish FellowBy strda221
    4 days ago

  • Pretending to talk other people’s languages
    Fakes can come in many forms.A Rolex, for instance.A tan can be fake. Read more ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    4 days ago

  • What’s new? A social agency with an emphasis on “investment” instead of “wellbeing” – b...
    Buzz from the Beehive A new government agency will open for business on July 1 – the Social Investment Agency. As a new standalone central agency effective from 1 July, it will lead the development of social investment across Government, helping ministers understand who they need to invest in, what ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    4 days ago

  • Following the political money
    Bryce Edwards writes –    “Follow the money” is the classic directive to journalists trying to understand where power and influence lie in society. In terms of uncovering who influences various New Zealand political parties and governments, it therefore pays to look at who is funding them. The ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago

  • Hipkins would rather no one remember that he was Minister of Education
    Alwyn Poole writes –  After being elected to Parliament in 2008 the maiden speech of Hipkins was substantially around education policy. He was Labour’s spokesperson for education 2011 – 2017. He was Minister for Education from 2017 until February 2023. This is approximately 88% of the time Labour ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago

  • Fashionable follies
    Eric Crampton writes –  A fashion industry group is lobbying for protections. They make the usual arguments and a newer one. None of it makes sense. An industry group says it pumped $7.8 billion into the economy last year – that’s 1.9 percent of New Zealand’s GDP. ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago

  • Justice for Bainimarama!
    In December 2006, Fiji's military leader Voreqe Bainimarama overthrew the elected government in a coup. He ruled Fiji for the next 16 years, first as dictator, then as "elected" Prime Minister. But now, he's finally been sent to jail where he belongs. Sadly, this isn't for his real crime of ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago

  • March for Nature in June
    Don't like National's corrupt Muldoonist "fast-track" law? Aotearoa's environmental NGO's - Greenpeace, Forest & Bird, WWF, Coromandel Watchdog, Coal Action Network Aotearoa, Kiwis Against Seabed Mining, and others - have announced a joint march against it in Auckland in June: When: 13:00, 8 June, 2024 Where: Aotea Square, Auckland You ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago

  • Bernard’ s Dawn Chorus & Pick ‘n’ Mix for Thursday May 9
    Seymour describes sushi as too woke for school meals. There are no fish sushi meals recommended by the School Lunches programme. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / Getty ImagesTL;DR: The Government will swap out hot meals for packaged sandwiches to save $107 million on school lunches for poor kids. MSD has pulled ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago

  • The non-woke $3 Lunch.
    I don't mind stealin' bread from the mouths of decadenceBut I can't feed on the powerless when my cup's already overfilled, yeahBut it's on the table, the fire's cookin'And they're farmin' babies, while slaves are workin'The blood is on the table and the mouths are chokin'But I'm goin' hungry, yeahSome ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    5 days ago

  • Labour’s chickens come home to roost
    The Ardern Government’s chickens came home to roost yesterday with the news that the country is short of natural gas. In 2018, Labour banned offshore petroleum exploration, and industry executives say that the attendant loss of confidence by the industry impacted overall investment in onshore gas fields. Energy Resources Minister ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    5 days ago

  • Calvin Reviews Lord of The Rings
    Hi,If you’ve been digging through the newly launched Webworm store (orders are being dispatched worldwide as I type!) you’ll have noticed the best model we had was Calvin.This is Calvin.Calvin.Calvin is 7, and is the son of my producer over on Flightless Bird, Rob — aka “Wobby Wob”. Rob also ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    5 days ago

  • Climate Adam: How to visualise Climate Change (ft. Katharine Hayhoe)
    This video includes conclusions of the creator climate scientist Dr. Adam Levy. It is presented to our readers as an informed perspective. Please see video description for references (if any). Climate change is everywhere. And when something's everywhere it can feel like it's nowhere. So how do we get our heads ...
    Skeptical Science
    5 days ago

  • The wrong direction
    Some good news on climate change today: the energy transition away from fossil fuels is picking up speed, and renewables now make up 30% of global electricity supply. Meanwhile, in Aotearoa, we're moving in the opposite direction, with Genesis Energy announcing that it will resume importing Indonesian coal. Their official ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago

  • National hates democracy
    Its a law like gravity: whenever a right-wing government is elected, they start attacking democracy. And now, after talking to their Republican and Tory and Fidesz chums at the International Democracy Union forum in Wellington, National is doing it here, announcing plans to remove election-day enrolment. Or, to put it ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago

  • No Tikanga Please, We're Lawyers.
    Yesterday Winston Peters focussed his attention on the important matter at hand. Tweeting. Like the former, and quite possibly next, orange POTUS, from whom he takes much of his political strategy, Winston is an avid X’er.His message didn’t resemble an historic address this time. In fact it was more reminiscent ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    6 days ago

  • Member’s Day
    Today is a Member's Day, and it seems we've entered the slowdown as things emerge from select committee. First up is the committee stage of Greg O'Connor's Child Protection (Child Sex Offender Government Agency Registration) (Overseas Travel Reporting) Amendment Bill, which will be followed by the second readings of Stuart ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago

  • Hurrah for coal – Shane Jones welcomes Genesis Energy’s import plans as natural gas production s...
    Buzz from the Beehive A significant decline in natural gas production has given Resources Minister Shane Jones an opportunity to reiterate his enthusiasm for the mining and burning of coal. For good measure, he has praised an announcement from Genesis Energy that it will resume importing coal. He and Energy ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    6 days ago

  • Bryce Edwards: Following the political money
    “Follow the money” is the classic directive to journalists trying to understand where power and influence lie in society. In terms of uncovering who influences various New Zealand political parties and governments, it therefore pays to look at who is funding them. The political parties are legally obliged to make ...
    Democracy ProjectBy bryce.edwards
    6 days ago

  • A Left-Right ranking of universities in NZ: a practical guide for students and parents
    Rob MacCullough writes – Here is my subjective ranking on a “most-left” to “most-right” scale of most of our major NZ Universities, with some anecdotal (and at times amusing) evidence to back up the claim. Extreme Left   Auckland University of Technology Evidence The ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    6 days ago

  •  Inflation and GST thresholds
    Eric Crampton writes –  I hadn’t thought about this one until a helpful email showed up in my inbox.It’s pretty obvious that income tax thresholds should automatically index with inflation – whether to anchor the thresholds in percentiles of the income distribution, or to anchor against a real ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    6 days ago

  • Green Party grapples with persistent scandals
    Jacqui Van Der Kaay writes –  Parliament’s speaker had no option but to refer Green MP Julie Anne Genter to the Privileges Committee for her behaviour in the House last Wednesday evening. The incident, in which she crossed the floor to wave a book and yell at National ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    6 days ago

  • A law school to be avoided – Auckland University of Technology
    Gary Judd writes – The Dean of the law school at the Auckland University of Technology is someone called Khylee Quince. I have been sent her social media posting in which she has, over the LawNews headline “Senior King’s Counsel files complaint about compulsory tikanga Maori studies for ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    6 days ago

  • 17 people in Malaita stand in way of China’s takeover of the Solomons
    Cleo Paskal writes – WASHINGTON, D.C.: ‘Many of us have received phone calls from [the opposing camp] telling them if they join the camp they will be given projects for their wards and $300,000 [around US$35,000] each’, says former Malaita Premier Daniel Suidani. The elections in Solomon Islands aren’t ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    6 days ago

  • Gordon Campbell on the Hamas Ceasefire Offer, and Mark Mitchell’s Incompetence
    With hindsight, it was inevitable that (a) Hamas would agree to the ceasefire deal brokered by Egypt and Qatar and that ( b) Israel would then immediately launch attacks on Rafah, regardless. We might have hoped the concessions made by Hamas would cause Israel to desist from slaughtering thousands more ...
    Gordon CampbellBy lyndon
    6 days ago

  • Bernard’ s Dawn Chorus & Pick ‘n’ Mix for Wednesday May 8
    Placards and mourners outside the Kilbirnie Mosque following the Christchurch terror attack: MSD has terminated the Kaiwhakaoranga service, which has been used by 415 families since the attacks. Photo: Lynn GrievesonTL;DR: The Government’s pledge to only cut ‘back office’ staff rather than ‘frontline’ services is on increasingly shaky ground, with ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    6 days ago

  • A few PT announcements
    There’s been a few smaller public transport announcements over the last week or so that I thought I’d cover in a single post. Fareshare I’ve long called for Auckland Transport to offer a way to enable employer-subsidised public transport options. The need for this took on even more importance ...
    Greater AucklandBy Matt L
    6 days ago

  • Jacqui Van Der Kaay: Green Party grapples with persistent scandals
    Parliament’s speaker had no option but to refer Green MP Julie Anne Genter to the Privileges Committee for her behaviour in the House last Wednesday evening. The incident, in which she crossed the floor to wave a book and yell at National Minister Matt Doocey, reflects poorly on Genter and ...
    Democracy ProjectBy bryce.edwards
    6 days ago

  • At a glance – Tree ring proxies and the divergence problem
    On February 14, 2023 we announced our Rebuttal Update Project. This included an ask for feedback about the added "At a glance" section in the updated basic rebuttal versions. This weekly blog post series highlights this new section of one of the updated basic rebuttal versions and serves as a ...
    Skeptical Science
    6 days ago

  • Nothing to sneer at
    Who likes being sneered at? Nobody. Worse yet, when the sneerer has their facts all wrong, and might well be an idiot.The sneer in question is The adults are in charge now, and it is a sneer offered in retort to criticism of this new Government, no matter how well ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    6 days ago

  • Still on their bullshit
    When in government, Labour pushed to extend the Parliamentary term to four years, to reduce accountability and our ability to vote out a bad government. And now, they're trying to do it through the member's ballot, with a Four-Year Parliamentary Term Legislation Bill. The bill at least requires a referendum ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago

  • Drawn
    A ballot for a single Member's Bill was held today, and the following bill was drawn: Public Works (Prohibition of Compulsory Acquisition of Māori Land) Amendment Bill (Hūhana Lyndon) The bill would prevent the government from stealing Māori land in breach of Te Tiriti o Waitangi. It ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago

  • A nod and a wink that will unnecessarily cost Aucklanders tens of millions per year
    Simeon Brown, alongside Wayne Brown, is favouring a political figleaf now in exchange for loading up tens of millions in extra interest costs on Auckland ratepayers. Photo: Lynn GrievesonTL;DR: Ratings agency Standard & Poor’s is pushing back hard at suggestions from Local Government Minister Simeon Brown and Mayor Wayne Brown ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    7 days ago

  • Correcting the Corrections announcement – a fiscal farce that should bother the OECD
     Buzz from the Beehive One headline-grabber from the Beehive yesterday was the OECD’s advice that the government must bring the Budget deficit under control or face higher interest rates. Another was the announcement of a $1.9 billion “investment” in Corrections over the next four years. In the best interests of ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    7 days ago

  •  Like it or not, the Kiwis are either going into ‘Pillar 2’ – or they are going to China
    Chris Trotter writes –  Had Zheng He’s fleet sailed east, not west, in the early Fifteenth Century, how different our world would be. There is little reason to suppose that the sea-going junks of the Ming Dynasty, among the largest and most sophisticated sailing vessels ever constructed, would have failed ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    7 days ago

  • A balanced and an unbalanced article
    David Farrar writes – Two articles give a useful contrast in balance. Both seek to be neutral explainer articles. This one in the Herald on Social Investment covers the pros and cons nicely. It links to critical pieces and talks about aspects that failed and aspects that are more ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    7 days ago

  • Deeply unserious country
    Every bit of this seems insane. And people wonder why productivity is falling through the floor. Energy News reports that the Environment Court finally threw out Allan Crafar’s appeal against a solar farm. From the story: Consent was granted in 2022. Crafar appealed November 2022. On what grounds? That ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    7 days ago

  • Senior King’s Counsel files complaint about compulsory tikanga Māori studies for law students
    The tikanga regulations will compel law students to be taught that a system which does not conform with the rule of law is nevertheless law which should be observed and applied…  Gary Judd KC writes –  I have made a complaint to Parliament’s Regulation ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    7 days ago

  • https://www.greaterauckland.org.nz/?p=77196
    The future of Te Huia, the train between Hamilton and Auckland, has been getting a lot of attention recently as current funding for it is only in place till the end of June. The government initially agreed to a five year trial, through to April 2026, but that was subject ...
    Greater AucklandBy Matt L
    7 days ago

  • Bernard’s pick 'n' mix for Tuesday, May 7
    TL;DR: Hamas has just agreed to Israel’s ceasefire plan. Nelson hospital’s rebuild has been cut back to save money. The OECD suggests New Zealand break up network monopolies, including in electricity. PM Christopher Luxon’s news conference on a prison expansion announcement last night was his messiest yet.Here’s my top six ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    7 days ago

  • HM Prison Aotearoa.
    A homicide in Ponsonby, a manhunt with a killer on the run. The nation’s leader stands before a press conference reassuring a frightened nation that he’ll sort it out, he’ll keep them safe, he’ll build some new prison spaces.Sorry what? There’s a scary dude on the run with a gun ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    7 days ago

  • Get Your Webworm Merch!
    Hi,I know it’s been awhile since there’s been any Webworm merch — and today that all changes!Over the last four months, I’ve been working with New Zealand artist Jess Johnson to create a series of t-shirts, caps and stickers that are infused with Webworm DNA — and as of right ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    7 days ago

  • Top OECD economist puts Willis between a rock and a hard place
    The OECD’s chief economist yesterday laid it on the line for the new Government: bring the deficit under control or face higher Reserve Bank interest rates for longer. And to bring the deficit under control, she meant not borrowing for tax cuts. But there was more. Without policy changes—introducing a ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    7 days ago

  • COVID-19 Inquiry terms of reference consultation results received
    “The results of the public consultation on the terms of reference for the Royal Commission into COVID-19 Lessons has now been received, with results indicating over 13,000 submissions were made from members of the public,” Internal Affairs Minister Brooke van Velden says. “We heard feedback about the extended lockdowns in ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 hours ago

  • The Pacific family of nations – the changing security outlook
    Foreign Minister, Defence Minister, other Members of Parliament Acting Chief of Defence Force, Secretary of Defence Distinguished Guests  Defence and Diplomatic Colleagues  Ladies and Gentlemen,  Good afternoon, tēna koutou, apinun tru    It’s a pleasure to be back in Port Moresby today, and to speak here at the Kumul Leadership ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 hours ago

  • NZ and Papua New Guinea to work more closely together
    Health, infrastructure, renewable energy, and stability are among the themes of the current visit to Papua New Guinea by a New Zealand political delegation, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says.   “Papua New Guinea carries serious weight in the Pacific, and New Zealand deeply values our relationship with it,” Mr Peters ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    10 hours ago

  • Driving ahead with Roads of Regional Significance
    The coalition Government is launching Roads of Regional Significance to sit alongside Roads of National Significance as part of its plan to deliver priority roading projects across the country, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says.  “The Roads of National Significance (RoNS) built by the previous National Government are some of New Zealand’s ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    15 hours ago

  • New Zealand congratulates new Solomon Islands government
    A high-level New Zealand political delegation in Honiara today congratulated the new Government of Solomon Islands, led by Jeremiah Manele, on taking office.    “We are privileged to meet the new Prime Minister and members of his Cabinet during his government’s first ten days in office,” Deputy Prime Minister and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago

  • New Zealand supports UN Palestine resolution
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