Written By: - Date published: 11:02 am, May 29th, 2017 - 32 comments
Is this an isolated case or is it representative of a change of mood in the non-voting electorate?
Written By: - Date published: 10:27 am, July 11th, 2014 - 14 comments
Rob Salmond presents the David Farrar / Steven Joyce / John Key argument that 2011 non voters are a National-leaning bunch. Then he shows that a better look at their own data undermines their claim. This matters because it helps us understand which bloc has more to gain from voter mobilization efforts in 2014. This means the left has a lot more to gain than the right from mobilization in 2014.
Written By: - Date published: 1:16 pm, July 2nd, 2014 - 17 comments
National appear to have been indulging in wishful thinking for some time based on dubious analysis of voter turnout. Their latest round of silliness comes from kiwiblog. Sure there were some National supporters who chose not to vote in 2011 out of complacency. But it is probably a minority, and that most of the new non-voters (who voted up to and including 2008, and then stopped) are lefties. The survey evidence points that way, and so does the E9 evidence when looked at properly.
Written By: - Date published: 3:30 pm, April 3rd, 2014 - 10 comments
David Farrar often bullshits on numbers. Does he have what appears to be a maths block that makes him so wrong so often (like Bill English)? Or is it just that he obeys orders like the good National puppet tools that he and Cameron Slater appear to be? Anyway, Rob Salmond pulls him up on a few obvious and significiant flaws in his ‘analysis’. DPF didn’t allow for people lying – just like he does
Written By: - Date published: 4:26 pm, September 16th, 2008 - 11 comments
Some commentators have pondered whether an election in NZ so close to the election in the States should be a concern for Labour. Helen Clark has already said: “… Obviously we all take a great interest in the American election but our election is what determines our immediate future”. But there’s also an upside in […]