web analytics

The major world risks in 2016

Written By: - Date published: 12:37 pm, January 5th, 2016 - 14 comments
Categories: business, capitalism, Economy, Environment, Globalisation, International, iraq, Japan, Syria, us politics, war - Tags:

For those who need one extra helping of anxiety-inducing risk discussion for 2016, here’s a summary of what the Eurasia Group have to say:

The Middle East is the most vulnerable to a geopolitical leadership vacuum and is heading toward conflagration. There are six failed states across the broader region (Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Mali, Syria, and Yemen) and more refugees than ever recorded. ISIS has become the most powerful terrorist organization in history. Oil economies are under strain. All of this will get worse in 2016.

Europe will feel much of the pain—in economic costs, security vulnerability, and political blowback. The United States, at the twilight of Barack Obama’s administration, will mostly stick to its knitting, since the western hemisphere remains insulated from the lion’s share of geopolitical instability. In Asia, despite having many of the world’s strongest national leaders, helping manage these problems is not a priority.

This all means a dramatically more fragmented world in 2016 with more intra-, inter-, and extra-state conflict than at any point since World War II. And yet drawing the major powers into military battle against one another—World War III—is virtually unthinkable (recent comments from Pope Francis notwithstanding). The world’s four largest economies—the United States, China, Japan, and Germany—are all deeply reluctant to accept responsibility for crisis management. Only the Germans are affected directly by this turmoil, and they still have plenty of reasons to duck the fight.

And so, in 2016, conflict intensifies. Last year, investors recognized growing uncertainty but remained more focused on the economic improvements: a US economy in recovery and Europe coming out of recession. That’s unlikely to last, as geopolitical risk shakes the global order.”

The broader report also dishes on:

  • The hollow and weakening trans-Atlantic partnership
  • Conflict between Open Europe and Closed Europe
  • China being the only remaining country with a global strategy, and its increasing global footprint
  • Rise of ISIS within many more Islamic-dominated countries
  • Destabilising discord inside Saudi Arabia
  • Technology leaders rising as political agents
  • Political and economic crisis worsening in Brazil

And dismisses a few things as red herrings:

US voters aren’t going to elect a president who will close the country to Muslims. China’s economy isn’t headed for a hard landing, and its politics will remain stable. Continued strong leadership from Japan’s Shinzo Abe, India’s Narendra Modi, and especially China’s Xi Jinping will keep Asia’s three most important players focused on economic reform and longer-term strategy, reducing the risk of conflict in Asia’s geopolitics.”

It’s a fun stab at a bunch of things.

14 comments on “The major world risks in 2016 ”

  1. Liberal Realist 1

    +1

    However EG don’t recognize how (IMO) dangerous the situation in Syria is. Unintended consequences could very easily lead to a hot conflict between Russia & Nato.

    It’s lucky that the Russian’s played cool when their bomber was ambushed. Some of the language coming out of Russia now suggests that they won’t tolerate any more bullshit from the likes of Turkey.

    Interesting assessment via Consortium News:
    https://consortiumnews.com/2016/01/02/hearing-the-russian-perspective/

  2. Agora 2

    Anxiety is exciting, energising, empowering due to increased noradrenalin flow throught the system. Consider the risk profile of the Australian economy ..

    http://wolfstreet.com/2015/12/30/will-the-australian-economy-eat-dirt-in-2016/

  3. AmaKiwi 3

    In the recent debate between the 6 or 7 Republican presidential hopefuls, ALL promised acts of war if elected.

    The decision to go to war is not rational. It is emotional. The crowd loved the candidates’ aggressiveness. The US public is getting psyched for a John Wayne “give ’em hell” confrontation.

    War is the monster child of fear, anger, and racism. If wars only began after rationally calculating the costs versus benefits, there would probably never ever be a war.

    In 2016 the USA will significantly expand the Mideast war. The public mood demands it.

    • One Two 3.1

      Manufactured Consent

      The public mood is whatever it’s required to be

      • AmaKiwi 3.1.1

        @ One Two

        I am not sure what you mean. If you mean the underlying social mood can be manipulated by the rich and powerful, I disagree.

        I see us moving from an era of trust, cooperation, and optimism to an era of anger, distrust, fragmentation, and pessimism. The EU is unraveling. This NOT what the rich and powerful want. Mideast turmoil is bad for the multinationals. Etc.

        I think you and I have a fundamentally different view of what drives macro social changes.

        • One Two 3.1.1.1

          the crowd loved the candidates aggressiveness …”

          That is manufactured consent which you describe eminating through the debate audience, broadcast across the networks

          It’s about the perception of social mood and is a primary tool. Look it up

          The actual social mood has been changing and will continue to deteriorate. Whether it leads to positive change remains to be seen

          Turmoil is always good for the few

      • Smilin 3.1.2

        The public mood is controlled by the media who are constructs of the front put out by the govt pr , the truth has nothing to do with it or we would all be dead, the final solution has come full circle.
        Just to extend the need to question the principles behind this and nail the dodgy bastards like Key who think we dont know .
        Dirty Politics on a global scale will be the MO as all the other lies have failed to convince even the dumbest of us that this crock of shit we call our financial system is anything thing like good for us and the fact that far smarter people than me for 3yrs now have been predicting a major crash this year greater than 2008 and it will be like the 30,s, its just the beginning.
        By 2017 no one will give a damn who is in power in this country because it wont change anything and all Keys BS will only be there to satisfy his BS dream of his youth as he plays golf in Hawaii with Obama both retired fucking BS artists

  4. plumington 5

    IMHO With Russia and China emerging as contenders for the new world reserve currency American interests are manipulating world markets and commodities to retain power
    China and India are buying up Gold reserves and our western fiat currency system is going to be manipulated to the wishes and outcomes for the banking elite
    As these power houses seem to be in conflict, are they?
    Much like most political parties their ideology may differ but they offer very little or no practical difference to the masses another sign of manipulating the democratic systems and those within
    This is not just NZS problem it is a world democracy problem (and we the peasants think our country lacks corruption those in real power have done a great head job)
    With those in real power 3-5 steps ahead of the great unwashed consequences and reaction are just part of their strategy
    Nothing happens without a reason, and follow the money, 2016 will be a interesting year

  5. johnm 6

    1. Abrupt climate change and the chaos it brings:
    ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gr8jDVlsAB4 )
    And:
    ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SMAC29z7TME&feature=youtu.be )

    Afewknowthetruth says:
    December 23, 2015 at 10:50 am
    Re: climate change being the number one issue….

    Yikes! At 403.89, we now have a daily CO2 data point 5.15ppm above one year ago! That’s twice the recent historic trend of about 2.5ppm per annum (0.7 ppm per annum rise when Keeling started measuring).

    Okay, one data point does not make a trend, but it is symptomatic of the shocking predicament we (well actually our children) are in.

    Surging atmospheric CO2 is not so surprising really, when you consider that chopping down trees, burning fossil fuels, and covering pasture in concrete and asphalt have all become so

    Kevin Hester says:
    December 24, 2015 at 9:26 pm

    I suspect the big story of 2016 will be an awakening in the global populace that abrupt, runaway climate change is driving our biosphere over the cliff and into the abyss.
    We have crossed dozens of irreversible tipping points that are leading us towards near term human extinction and sooner than anyone is being told.

    Posted by Kevin Hester on Friday, 21 November 2014

    – See more at: http://thedailyblog.co.nz/2015/12/21/2016-issues/#comments
    _______________________________________________________________________________________
    Risk of major confrontation with nuclear armed Russia in Syria and the Ukraine

    2. The Warshington Neocons ( Who follow the Wolfowitz doctrine of World full spectrum dominance and hegemony have destroyed independent governments in the ME except so far Iran and embattled Syria ) are successful so far in destroying 5/7 Middle Eastern nations: Re General Petraeus. ISIS is a creation of Warshington, London and Paris and the Anglo-Israel alliance.

    ____________________________________________________________________________________________

    3. Sixth mass extinction of life happening on this Planet now and we will become extinct long before the rest: Industrial Civilisation is a death machine totally a 1000% short term binge and totally unsustainable. We are at war with the Planet and parts of the World whose resources we wish to take.
    http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2015/06/150623-sixth-extinction-kolbert-animals-conservation-science-world/

    ____________________________________________________________________________________________

    4. Fukushima with 3 meltdowns is uncontained and is poisoning the Pacific and the atmosphere of the Northern Hemisphere continuously. The Pacific fishing stocks have been destroyed by ruthless over fishing and symbolic of this is the Japanese greed of sending Whalers into the Antarctic this year to kill Whales in contravention and contempt of the Antarctic Treaty which bans commercial activity in the World’s last remaining pristine environment, Japan signed that treaty.

    • johnm 6.1

      The Warshington Neocons engineered the over throw of the democratic government of the Ukraine bringing war and destitution to a once stable nation that had positive ties to Russia.

      Russia had positive ties to Europe culturally and economically now severed by their slavish vassal subservience to neocon Warshington. Already a major war could have been started by the illegal criminal shooting down of the Russian jet over Syria.

      Now facing reality Russia has declared:

      Russia names United States, NATO as threats to its national security

      For the first time since the dissolution of the USSR and the restoration of capitalism in 1991, a strategic document of the Russian state has openly designated the United States and the NATO military alliance as threats to Russian national security.

      The document, “About the Strategy of National Security of the Russian Federation,” was signed by Russian President Vladimir Putin on New Year’s Eve. It warns that Russia faces “counteraction from the USA and its allies, which are striving to retain their dominance in global affairs.” It predicts that this will lead to further “political, economic, military, and informational pressure” on Russia.

      The document points in particular to actions NATO has taken since backing the February 2014 coup that installed a far-right, pro-Western regime in neighboring Ukraine. It cites the “intensification of military activities of [NATO] member countries,” the “further expansion of the alliance” into Eastern Europe along Russian borders, and “moving military infrastructure closer to Russia’s borders” as national security threats to Russia.

      http://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2016/01/05/russ-j05.html

  6. There are many daunting experiences that we have encountered and hope that they will stay in 2015. However, sadly enough they are still outstanding and not yet resolved up to this date. They will continue to haunt us throughout 2016 depending on how various leaders around the world go all out to their maximum capability to try fix the situation. Until then, more lives will be lost and finance bubbles are yet to be burst.

Links to post

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

  • Government takes new direction with policy refocus
    Work on the TVNZ/RNZ public media entity to stop; Radio NZ and NZ on Air to receive additional funding Social insurance scheme will not proceed this term The Human Rights (Incitement on Ground of Religious Belief) Amendment Bill to be withdrawn and not progressed this term. The matter to be ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    12 hours ago
  • $5 million support package for flood affected Auckland businesses
    The Government is providing a $5 million package of emergency support to help businesses significantly affected by the recent flooding in Auckland. This includes: $3 million for flood recovery payments to help significantly affected businesses $1 million for mental wellbeing support through a boost to the First Steps programme $1 ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    12 hours ago
  • Temporary Accommodation Service activated to help flood affected Aucklanders
    The Government’s Temporary Accommodation Service (TAS) has been activated to support people displaced by the severe flooding and landslips in the Auckland region, Housing Minister Megan Woods says.  “TAS is now accepting registrations for people who cannot return to their homes and need assistance finding temporary accommodation.  The team will work ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    17 hours ago
  • Prime Ministers’ meeting reaffirms close trans-Tasman relationship
    Prime Minister Chris Hipkins and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese today held their first bilateral meeting in Canberra. It was Chris Hipkins’ first overseas visit since he took office, reflecting the close relationship between New Zealand and Australia. “New Zealand has no closer partner than Australia. I was pleased to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Immediate humanitarian support to Türkiye and Syria following earthquakes
    New Zealand will immediately provide humanitarian support to those affected by the earthquakes in Türkiye and Syria, Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta announced today. “Aotearoa New Zealand is deeply saddened by the loss of life and devastation caused by these earthquakes. Our thoughts are with the families and loved ones affected,” ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Pākinga Pā site to be gifted back to local hapū
    An historic Northland pā site with links to Ngāpuhi chief Hongi Hika is to be handed back to iwi, after collaboration by government, private landowners and local hapū. “It is fitting that the ceremony for the return of the Pākinga Pā site is during Waitangi weekend,” said Regional Development Minister ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • New initiatives to unlock Māori science and research resources
    The Government is investing in a suite of initiatives to unlock Māori and Pacific resources, talent and knowledge across the science and research sector, Research, Science and Innovation Minister Dr Ayesha Verrall announced today. Two new funds – He tipu ka hua and He aka ka toro – set to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Advancing our relationship in India
    Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta departs for India tomorrow as she continues to reconnect Aotearoa New Zealand to the world.  The visit will begin in New Delhi where the Foreign Minister will meet with the Vice President Hon Jagdeep Dhankar and her Indian Government counterparts, External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Government Northland housing investment to spark transformational change
    Over $10 million infrastructure funding to unlock housing in Whangārei The purchase of a 3.279 hectare site in Kerikeri to enable 56 new homes Northland becomes eligible for $100 million scheme for affordable rentals Multiple Northland communities will benefit from multiple Government housing investments, delivering thousands of new homes for ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Government investment safeguards Waitangi Treaty Grounds
    The Government is supporting one of Aotearoa New Zealand’s most significant historic sites, the Waitangi Treaty Grounds, as it continues to recover from the impacts of COVID-19. “The Waitangi Treaty Grounds are a taonga that we should protect and look after. This additional support will mean people can continue to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Battle of Ohaeawai remembered
    A memorial event at a key battle site in the New Zealand land wars is an important event to mark the progress in relations between Māori and the Crown as we head towards Waitangi Day, Minister for Te Arawhiti Kelvin Davis said. The Battle of Ohaeawai in June 1845 saw ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • More Police deployed to the frontline
    More Police officers are being deployed to the frontline with the graduation of 54 new constables from the Royal New Zealand Police College today. The graduation ceremony for Recruit Wing 362 at Te Rauparaha Arena in Porirua was the first official event for Stuart Nash since his reappointment as Police ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Further support for upper North Island regions hit by significant weather
    The Government is unlocking an additional $700,000 in support for regions that have been badly hit by the recent flooding and storm damage in the upper North Island. “We’re supporting the response and recovery of Auckland, Waikato, Coromandel, Northland, and Bay of Plenty regions, through activating Enhanced Taskforce Green to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • The Princess Royal to visit New Zealand
    Prime Minister Chris Hipkins has welcomed the announcement that Her Royal Highness The Princess Royal, Princess Anne, will visit New Zealand this month. “Princess Anne is travelling to Aotearoa at the request of the NZ Army’s Royal New Zealand Corps of Signals, of which she is Colonel in Chief, to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • Government and horticulture sector target $12b in exports by 2035
    A new Government and industry strategy launched today has its sights on growing the value of New Zealand’s horticultural production to $12 billion by 2035, Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor said. “Our food and fibre exports are vital to New Zealand’s economic security. We’re focussed on long-term strategies that build on ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Cost of living support extended for families and businesses
    25 cents per litre petrol excise duty cut extended to 30 June 2023 – reducing an average 60 litre tank of petrol by $17.25 Road User Charge discount will be re-introduced and continue through until 30 June Half price public transport fares extended to the end of June 2023 saving ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • More Kiwis in work as rising wages match inflation
    The strong economy has attracted more people into the workforce, with a record number of New Zealanders in paid work and wages rising to help with cost of living pressures. “The Government’s economic plan is delivering on more better-paid jobs, growing wages and creating more opportunities for more New Zealanders,” ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Government boosts fund for Auckland flooding
    The Government is providing a further $1 million to the Mayoral Relief Fund to help communities in Auckland following flooding, Minister for Emergency Management Kieran McAnulty announced today. “Cabinet today agreed that, given the severity of the event, a further $1 million contribution be made. Cabinet wishes to be proactive ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • New Cabinet focused on bread and butter issues
    The new Cabinet will be focused on core bread and butter issues like the cost of living, education, health, housing and keeping communities and businesses safe, Prime Minister Chris Hipkins has announced. “We need a greater focus on what’s in front of New Zealanders right now. The new Cabinet line ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Prime Minister to meet with PM Albanese
    Prime Minister Chris Hipkins will travel to Canberra next week for an in person meeting with Australian Prime Minister, Anthony Albanese. “The trans-Tasman relationship is New Zealand’s closest and most important, and it was crucial to me that my first overseas trip as Prime Minister was to Australia,” Chris Hipkins ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Government makes first payment to Auckland Flooding fund
    The Government is providing establishment funding of $100,000 to the Mayoral Relief Fund to help communities in Auckland following flooding, Minister for Emergency Management Kieran McAnulty announced. “We moved quickly to make available this funding to support Aucklanders while the full extent of the damage is being assessed,” Kieran McAnulty ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Government steps up to assist Auckland during flooding
    As the Mayor of Auckland has announced a state of emergency, the Government, through NEMA, is able to step up support for those affected by flooding in Auckland. “I’d urge people to follow the advice of authorities and check Auckland Emergency Management for the latest information. As always, the Government ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Poroporoaki: Titewhai Te Huia Hinewhare Harawira
    Ka papā te whatitiri, Hikohiko ana te uira, wāhi rua mai ana rā runga mai o Huruiki maunga Kua hinga te māreikura o te Nota, a Titewhai Harawira Nā reira, e te kahurangi, takoto, e moe Ka mōwai koa a Whakapara, kua uhia te Tai Tokerau e te kapua pōuri ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Enhanced Task Force Green Approved following Cyclone Hale
    Carmel Sepuloni, Minister for Social Development and Employment, has activated Enhanced Taskforce Green (ETFG) in response to flooding and damaged caused by Cyclone Hale in the Tairāwhiti region. Up to $500,000 will be made available to employ job seekers to support the clean-up. We are still investigating whether other parts ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago