The other war of the polls

Written By: - Date published: 9:00 am, September 16th, 2016 - 28 comments
Categories: local body elections - Tags: , , , , ,

The Dominion Post has been given access to two polls telling slightly different stories about the Wellington mayoral race:

Two polls conducted in the past week have revealed Wellington’s mayoral race to be a three-way dogfight between Justin Lester, Nick Leggett and Jo Coughlan – but both polls tell different tales of how the election may play out.

Methodology nerds, sharpen your pencils, I guess?

Lester’s poll targeted “likely voters” – people who voted in the past two elections and would likely do so again this year. The poll commissioned by Leggett’s team quizzed eligible voters.

Leggett’s poll was conducted by Curia, David Farrar’s outfit. I’d assume they deliberately left the net wide to deliver the result their client wanted – I’ve eyerolled at more than enough of the surveys they’ve done for Family First, with questions quite clearly worded to deliver the kinds of “sex is terrible, gay people are evil, bring back draconian morality laws” headlines Bob McCoskrie likes to put on his press releases.

Lester’s poll could be equally flawed. But the ultimate conclusion – that it’s all going to come down to second and third preferences – means things are running as intended. That’s what I like about a preferential voting system. You don’t always get your perfect choice for candidate, but the collective, together, get the choice that pleases the most people overall.

Phil Goff probably wouldn’t be looking so secure of the Auckland mayoralty if Aucklanders weren’t burdened with good old First Past the Post – and because I’m a democrat, I have to say I think that would be a good thing, even though with the current field it would probably mean the Right would triumph with their stable of terrible, incoherent candidates.

If there’s a weakness in the current lineup of Wellington likelies, it’s that the odds seem stacked against outsiders. Practically everyone running for mayor is either currently on council or has been. The front-runners are the current Deputy Mayor, who has a major party behind him; a sitting Councillor, who unofficially has an even bigger political party behind her; and the Mayor of a neighbouring city, with a war-chest big enough to have his face plastered onto every available surface in the CBD (though apparently not enough to get humble hoardings out to the northern suburbs?)

I long for a Chlöe Swarbrick kind of run – and in Wellington she’d have a much better shot. Maybe in 2019 …

Voting papers get delivered shortly. If you want to support some local campaigns that could make a real difference, might I suggest signing up to Our Democracy at together.org.nz?

28 comments on “The other war of the polls ”

  • Comments are now closed

  1. whateva next? 1
    16 September 2016 at 9:48 am

    refreshing to see polls being scrutinised more these days, I would have guessed Legget’s was done by Curia (thus skewed), so thanks for providing details, and lets keep up the spotlight on these very powerful and effective tactics of manipulation for the power hungry elite

    • Bob 1.1
      16 September 2016 at 2:19 pm

      “I would have guessed Legget’s was done by Curia (thus skewed)”
      Why would you guess it is skewed if done by Curia? They don’t seem to put National wrong:
      “Kiwiblog blogger David Farrar: “the best pollster in New Zealand”, says John Key. “He got his numbers right!””
      http://thewireless.co.nz/themes/election/twvote-election-night-live

      You know you are doing something right when your numbers match election night results…

      • Whateva next? 1.1.1
        16 September 2016 at 7:33 pm

        When they broadcast loudly from towers every week that National have a “commanding lead” it acts as a form of hypnosis to the undecideds, yearning for status quo and stability.

      • George Hendry 1.1.2
        16 September 2016 at 8:58 pm

        ‘You know you are doing something right when your numbers match election night results…’

        Rigging the election, maybe ?

  2. Phil 2
    16 September 2016 at 10:16 am

    Polls commissioned by, or directly affiliated with, campaigns tend to skew in the direction of the candidate paying the bill. With that in mind, the two polls are pointing in pointing in a similar direction – Lester probably leads by a modest amount.

  3. b waghorn 3
    16 September 2016 at 10:29 am

    Polling needs to be banned it’s corrupting democracy and let’s face it in the right hands it can sway a large % of voters far more than policy will ever do.

    • nzsage 3.1
      16 September 2016 at 11:06 am

      …and the problem is they are in “the right’s hands”

    • George Hendry 3.2
      16 September 2016 at 12:25 pm

      “Opinion polls, which gauge voter intentions and attitudes, are an important part of elections coverage in most countries. Publication of opinion poll findings is a subject that arouses strong passions. Established democracies take quite contrary positions on the issue. Sixteen of the twenty-seven European Union countries, for example, ban reporting of polls, although timeframes range from a full month to just 24 hours before election day. Only three countries – Italy, Slovakia and Luxembourg – have bans of more than seven days. In many of the EU countries, legal challenges in recent years have reduced the time period over which the ban applies.”

      (…)

      “With opinion polls, more than most other issues, much hinges on how professionally the findings are reported (for more information, see section on Media Professionalism). The Montenegrin position of imposing a total ban on the public media’s reporting opinion polls might find some favour in a situation where distorted reporting could materially affect the outcome of the elections.”

      – ACE, The Electoral Knowledge Network

      I appreciate Stephanie’s clear implication that Curia were hired because they would know how to word a poll so as to deliver the result their client wanted, ie a result decided in advance, not for information but for manipulation through selective publicity.

      Perhaps we are now a step closer to realising that all published polls commissioned by or on behalf of known parties could be similarly cooked up.

      And this will go on happening as long as enough people continue to discuss polls as if those polls were valid or authentic. The onus should by now be on anyone who continues to believe in published poll results to show why a government known for distorting so much other truth would not distort this as well.

      National – where lying is legal, or if not the law will be changed under urgency and retrospectively.

      • Matthew Whitehead 3.2.1
        16 September 2016 at 3:16 pm

        And yet- and this is the thing that astounds me- Curia is signed up to the “NZ political polling code” that explicitly bans push polling. If any of you ever get pulled by Curia and their questions sound pushy, please complain, because they and they clients are running around saying “Curia is legitimate, it’s a member of the NZ Research Association and nobody has complained.”

        Because nobody ever complains about polling organisations. 🙁

  4. Sirenia 4
    16 September 2016 at 11:22 am

    Nick Leggett is not a candidate of the left. He appears to have big backing from business including the roads and property development lobby. Also some fluffy pieces from media including the DomPost and Listener.

  5. Ad 5
    16 September 2016 at 11:59 am

    What’s Leggett’s delivery record in Porirua?

    • Sirenia 5.1
      16 September 2016 at 12:36 pm

      He says Transmission Gully is his biggest achievement. It is a monster road still a long way off completion. It will dump a whole lot more cars in Wellington city. As for delivering for Porirua, I don’t know. It is an area with huge wealth inequity – lots of very poor, lots of very rich and not that many in the middle,

    • D'Esterre' 5.2
      17 September 2016 at 11:41 pm

      Ad: “What’s Leggett’s delivery record in Porirua?”

      Judging by what Hartham Court looks like, not much. It’s a wasteland of empty shops, interspersed with moneylenders, $2.00 shops, takeaway joints and the TAB. There’s scarcely anyone around that area nowadays: just tragic. I imagine the citizens of Porirua would be glad to see the back of him.

      We certainly don’t need him in Wellington: imagine if he were to do that to the golden mile?

  6. weizguy 6
    16 September 2016 at 12:53 pm

    And once again, the “not right wing” candidate, employs the services of the right.
    Funding by ACT
    Campaign by Phil “I hate Labour” Quin
    Polling by the PM’s favourite pollster.

    I don’t think Andrew Little’s intervention played out so well (not as bad as Celia’s), but it did expose the trojan horse campaign that Leggett (Parkin) was planning to run.

    • Matthew Whitehead 6.1
      16 September 2016 at 3:17 pm

      A fair amount of “labour” people use Curia, not just Justin Lester.

      I would understand if the rationale was to commision an internal “hostile poll,” where you go to someone with known sympathies to the other guys and ask them to poll for you so you see how bad it could possibly be. But that doesn’t actually appear to be what’s going on.

  7. Peter 7
    16 September 2016 at 1:20 pm

    The polls don’t make much difference – the top three are all rubbish. Anyway, the winner, as with the current Mayor and Council, will be owned by Infratil, a small coterie of property developers, the Chamber of Commerce that only represents a small proportion of the business sector, a sycophantic Jackson/Weta cheer squad and the top table of the hospitality industry. At least the American voters only have to decide between two bad choices.

  8. The Chairman 8
    16 September 2016 at 1:49 pm

    Justin Lester, Nick Leggett and Jo Coughlan won’t be getting my vote.

    • Matthew Whitehead 8.1
      16 September 2016 at 3:21 pm

      I would strongly consider at least giving Justin Lester your last preference vote, (because that way you make it very clear how much you dislike him) even if you don’t like him much at all, so that he gets a leg up over Nick, who consorts with the Act Party, and Jo, who also looks even worse.

      He’s not inspiring, arguably he’s not even good, but he’s someone who could be argued around to reasonable positions.

      I got the email from the Greens recently on their endorsement for Wellington mayor, and as expected it’s Lester, making basically the same points I just did. *shrug*

      That said, I’m not gonna criticise you if you don’t think you can do it. Votes do have to be earned and I totally understand if Lester hasn’t cleared your threshold of enthusiasm. I hope you’ll at least vote for Labour or Green candidates for your ward.

      • The Chairman 8.1.1
        16 September 2016 at 4:15 pm

        I can assure you I will vote for who I deem will best represent my left leaning views. Whether they get anywhere is up to the majority.

        If that allows the Right to win, then perhaps the so-called Left need to up their game instead of hoping voters will vote for the best of two evils.

        • Matthew Whitehead 8.1.1.1
          19 September 2016 at 11:14 am

          I absolutely agree that we needed a mayoral candidate who could actually garner some enthusiasm rather than someone who thought they deserved to inherit the position as Deputy Mayor.

  9. Sirenia 9
    16 September 2016 at 9:10 pm

    I have been to several meetings and read all the literature. I like Justin Lester and will make a positive vote for him. He’s far more left than the others. He remembers where he has come from (poor single mother in Invercargill). Most of the mayoral candidates don’t support the Living Wage for council workers or contractors and think their work as mayor would be worth about 10 times an hour more than the cleaners or rubbish collectors. Justin was one of those who led the battle for the Living Wage for council workers against the power of the Chamber of Commerce and many councillors. He pays his employees the living wage after they had worked for him for 6 months and was one of the first employers to take it on board (he employs about 50 staff in his Kapai salad bars across Wellington).

    • The Chairman 9.1
      16 September 2016 at 10:36 pm

      I support the notion of council paying a living wage. However, how it is funded is also important.

      Simply passing on the cost to ratepayers impacts negatively on other low income earners.

      I prefer something similar to Minto’s notion (offsetting it with restraint at the top within council).

      • Sirenia 9.1.1
        16 September 2016 at 10:44 pm

        There are a lot of people in the council paid huge salaries and they go up every year. It wouldn’t cost much to cut the top salaries a bit to redistribute a few dollars more to the lowest paid. It also saves money in that it helps with staff retention and productivity.

  10. The Chairman 10
    16 September 2016 at 10:47 pm

    Which is exactly my point.

  11. Anthony 11
    17 September 2016 at 9:32 am

    It’s worth remembering that the Mayoralty is only one component of the direction of a city: another vital leg of the stool is the overall composition of the Council. Indeed, having a centre left mayor is worthless if we end up with right leaning Councils.

    So, as you read your ballot info, check the credentials of the council candidates. Some of them are definitely wolves in sheeps’ clothing

    (Disclaimer: I’m standing for Council in in Chch)

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  • The very opposite of social investment
    Nicola Willis (in blue) at the signing of the coalition agreement, before being sworn in as both Finance Minister and Social Investment Minister. National’s plan to unwind anti-smoking measures will benefit her in the first role, but how does it stack up from a social investment viewpoint? Photo: Lynn Grieveson ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago

  • Giving Tuesday
    For the first time "in history" we decided to jump on the "Giving Tuesday" bandwagon in order to make you aware of the options you have to contribute to our work! Projects supported by Skeptical Science Inc. Skeptical Science Skeptical Science is an all-volunteer organization but ...
    Skeptical Science
    5 days ago

  • Let's open the books with Nicotine Willis
    Let’s say it’s 1984,and there's a dreary little nation at the bottom of the Pacific whose name rhymes with New Zealand,and they've just had an election.Jesus, Mary, and Joseph, will you look at the state of these books we’ve opened,cries the incoming government, will you look at all this mountain ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    5 days ago

  • Climate Change: Stopping oil
    National is promising to bring back offshore oil and gas drilling. Naturally, the Greens have organised a petition campaign to try and stop them. You should sign it - every little bit helps, and as the struggle over mining conservation land showed, even National can be deterred if enough people ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago

  • Don’t accept Human Rights Commission reading of data on Treaty partnership – read the survey fin...
    Wellington is braced for a “massive impact’ from the new government’s cutting public service jobs, The Post somewhat grimly reported today. Expectations of an economic and social jolt are based on the National-Act coalition agreement to cut public service numbers in each government agency in a cost-trimming exercise  “informed by” head ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    5 days ago

  • The stupidest of stupid reasons
    One of the threats in the National - ACT - NZ First coalition agreements was to extend the term of Parliament to four years, reducing our opportunities to throw a bad government out. The justification? Apparently, the government thinks "elections are expensive". This is the stupidest of stupid reasons for ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago

  • A website bereft of buzz
    Buzz from the Beehive The new government was being  sworn in, at time of writing , and when Point of Order checked the Beehive website for the latest ministerial statements and re-visit some of the old ones we drew a blank. We found ….  Nowt. Nothing. Zilch. Not a ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    5 days ago

  • MICHAEL BASSETT: A new Ministry – at last
    Michael Bassett writes – Like most people, I was getting heartily sick of all the time being wasted over the coalition negotiations. During the first three weeks Winston grinned like a Cheshire cat, certain he’d be needed; Chris Luxon wasted time in lifting the phone to Winston ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago

  • Luxon's Breakfast.
    The Prime Minister elect had his silver fern badge on. He wore it to remind viewers he was supporting New Zealand, that was his team. Despite the fact it made him look like a concierge, or a welcomer in a Koru lounge. Anna Burns-Francis, the Breakfast presenter, asked if he ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    5 days ago

  • LINDSAY MITCHELL:  Oranga Tamariki faces major upheaval under coalition agreement
     Lindsay Mitchell writes – A hugely significant gain for ACT is somewhat camouflaged by legislative jargon. Under the heading ‘Oranga Tamariki’ ACT’s coalition agreement contains the following item:   Remove Section 7AA from the Oranga Tamariki Act 1989 According to Oranga Tamariki:     “Section ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago

  • BRIAN EASTON:  Peters as Minister
    A previous column looked at Winston Peters biographically. This one takes a closer look at his record as a minister, especially his policy record. Brian Easton writes – 1990-1991: Minister of Māori Affairs. Few remember Ka Awatea as a major document on the future of Māori policy; there is ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago

  • Cathrine Dyer's guide to watching COP 28 from the bottom of a warming planet
    Is COP28 largely smoke and mirrors and a plan so cunning, you could pin a tail on it and call it a weasel? Photo: Getty ImagesTL;DR: COP28 kicks off on November 30 and up for negotiation are issues like the role of fossil fuels in the energy transition, contributions to ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago

  • Top 10 news links at 10 am for Monday, Nov 27
    PM Elect Christopher Luxon was challenged this morning on whether he would sack Adrian Orr and Andrew Coster.TL;DR: Here’s my pick of top 10 news links elsewhere at 10 am on Monday November 27, including:Signs councils are putting planning and capital spending on hold, given a lack of clear guidance ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago

  • Gordon Campbell on the new government’s policies of yesteryear
    This column expands on a Werewolf column published by Scoop on Friday Routinely, Winston Peters is described as the kingmaker who gets to decide when the centre right or the centre-left has a turn at running this country. He also plays a less heralded but equally important role as the ...
    Gordon CampbellBy lyndon
    5 days ago

  • The New Government’s Agreements
    Last Friday, almost six weeks after election day, National finally came to an agreement with ACT and NZ First to form a government. They also released the agreements between each party and looking through them, here are the things I thought were the most interesting (and often concerning) from the. ...
    Greater AucklandBy Matt L
    5 days ago

  • How many smokers will die to fund the tax cuts?
    Maori and Pasifika smoking rates are already over twice the ‘all adult’ rate. Now the revenue that generates will be used to fund National’s tax cuts. Photo: Getty ImagesTL;DR: The devil is always in the detail and it emerged over the weekend from the guts of the policy agreements National ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    6 days ago

  • How the culture will change in the Beehive
    Perhaps the biggest change that will come to the Beehive as the new government settles in will be a fundamental culture change. The era of endless consultation will be over. This looks like a government that knows what it wants to do, and that means it knows what outcomes ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    6 days ago

  • No More Winnie Blues.
    So what do you think of the coalition’s decision to cancel Smokefree measures intended to stop young people, including an over representation of Māori, from taking up smoking? Enabling them to use the tax revenue to give other people a tax cut?David Cormack summed it up well:It seems not only ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    6 days ago

  • 2023 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #47
    A chronological listing of news and opinion articles posted on the Skeptical Science  Facebook Page during the past week: Sun, Nov 19, 2023 thru Sat, Nov 25, 2023.  Story of the Week World stands on frontline of disaster at Cop28, says UN climate chief  Exclusive: Simon Stiell says leaders must ‘stop ...
    Skeptical Science
    7 days ago

  • Some of it is mad, some of it is bad and some of it is clearly the work of people who are dangerous ...
    On announcement morning my mate texted:Typical of this cut-price, fake-deal government to announce itself on Black Friday.What a deal. We lose Kim Hill, we gain an empty, jargonising prime minister, a belligerent conspiracist, and a heartless Ayn Rand fanboy. One door closes, another gets slammed repeatedly in your face.It seems pretty ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    7 days ago

  • “Revolution” is the threat as the Māori Party smarts at coalition government’s Treaty directi...
    Buzz from the Beehive Having found no fresh announcements on the government’s official website, Point of Order turned today to Scoop’s Latest Parliament Headlines  for its buzz. This provided us with evidence that the Māori Party has been soured by the the coalition agreement announced yesterday by the new PM. “Soured” ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    1 week ago

  • The Good, the Bad, and the even Worse.
    Yesterday the trio that will lead our country unveiled their vision for New Zealand.Seymour looking surprisingly statesmanlike, refusing to rise to barbs about his previous comments on Winston Peters. Almost as if they had just been slapstick for the crowd.Winston was mostly focussed on settling scores with the media, making ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    1 week ago

  • When it Comes to Palestine – Free Speech is Under Threat
    Hi,Thanks for getting amongst Mister Organ on digital — thanks to you, we hit the #1 doc spot on iTunes this week. This response goes a long way to helping us break even.I feel good about that. Other things — not so much.New Zealand finally has a new government, and ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    1 week ago

  • Thank you Captain Luxon. Was that a landing, or were we shot down?
    Hello! Here comes the Saturday edition of More Than A Feilding, catching you up on the past week’s editions.Also in More Than A FeildingFriday The unboxing And so this is Friday and what have we gone and done to ourselves?In the same way that a Christmas present can look lovely under the ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    1 week ago

  • Cans of Worms.
    “And there’ll be no shortage of ‘events’ to test Luxon’s political skills. David Seymour wants a referendum on the Treaty. Winston wants a Royal Commission of Inquiry into Labour’s handling of the Covid crisis. Talk about cans of worms!”LAURIE AND LES were very fond of their local. It was nothing ...
    Bowalley Road
    1 week ago

  • Disinformation campaigns are undermining democracy. Here’s how we can fight back
    This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article. Misinformation is debated everywhere and has justifiably sparked concerns. It can polarise the public, reduce health-protective behaviours such as mask wearing and vaccination, and erode trust in science. Much of misinformation is spread not ...
    Skeptical Science
    1 week ago

  • Peters as Minister
    A previous column looked at Winston Peters biographically. This one takes a closer look at his record as a minister, especially his policy record.1990-1991: Minister of Māori Affairs. Few remember Ka Awatea as a major document on the future of Māori policy; there is not even an entry in Wikipedia. ...
    PunditBy Brian Easton
    1 week ago

  • The New Government: 2023 Edition
    So New Zealand has a brand-spanking new right-wing government. Not just any new government either. A formal majority coalition, of the sort last seen in 1996-1998 (our governmental arrangements for the past quarter of a century have been varying flavours of minority coalition or single-party minority, with great emphasis ...
    A Phuulish FellowBy strda221
    1 week ago

  • New Zealand welcomes European Parliament vote on the NZ-EU Free Trade Agreement
    A significant milestone in ratifying the NZ-EU Free Trade Agreement (FTA) was reached last night, with 524 of the 705 member European Parliament voting in favour to approve the agreement. “I’m delighted to hear of the successful vote to approve the NZ-EU FTA in the European Parliament overnight. This is ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago

  • Further humanitarian support for Gaza, the West Bank and Israel
    The Government is contributing a further $5 million to support the response to urgent humanitarian needs in Gaza, the West Bank and Israel, bringing New Zealand’s total contribution to the humanitarian response so far to $10 million. “New Zealand is deeply saddened by the loss of civilian life and the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago

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