Why on earth would Jacinda go to the polls now where there is a reasonable prospect of losing? It would be dumbest move since the drunk Pig did it in 1984.
The health system is about to collapse. It's so bad senior doctors are leaking information to media. In my area seeing the doctor you have enrolled with will take days, even weeks.
Crime? Out of control. Station employee stabbed today.
Maori – Out of control re racist legislation. Where's ya proof? Were do I start? Tonight on 3 News it was said the home bowel screening programme will be brought down to start at 50 years old because of the increase in bowel cancer. The catch? It's not for you whitey…but only for Maori and Polynesians. Bloody disgusting.
I won't rant on. Is Mickey right? At the moment probably. But he should be aware NZ is a powder keg of issues that could blow our once great nation apart at any moment. Unless National shoot themselves in the foot multiple times, how can things improve for Labour leading up to the election? That's when the call may go out for an early election.
If I was advising Jacinda, I would be briefing her on various exit strategies.
"Tonight on 3 News it was said the home bowel screening programme will be brought down to start at 50 years old because of the increase in bowel cancer. The catch? It's not for you whitey…but only for Maori and Polynesians."
Makes sense to me because (my bold) finding it early by screening means less likely to have spread so more likely curable
"Māori and Pacific patients <75 had worse all-cause and cancer-specific survival than New Zealand European. Historically, Māori have a lower incidence of CRC compared to New Zealand European,22–24 but this incidence has been rising.5 Our data are consistent with poorer health outcomes often observed in Māori and Pacific cancer patients in New Zealand6,25–28 and is in line with reported survival rates of indigenous and ethnic minority populations in other countries.23,29–32 Of interest was the finding that in the over 75 year age group, while Pacific patients had poorer survival (OR 1.35) compared with New Zealand European, outcomes for Māori were similar (OR 1.06). Factors contributing to the ethnic disparities seen in New Zealand cancer care are well documented; Māori experience more inequalities/barriers when accessing health services than non-Māori,27,28 experience a lower level of care from those services26 and do not get the same access to treatment.33 Māori and Pacific patients are also more likely to present with metastatic disease,6,28,34,35 experience delays to diagnosis6 and present to the emergency department compared to non-Māori /non-Pacific patients.6 Disease biology and culture (eg, diet, help-seeking behaviour),27 deprivation level,6 and higher levels of comorbidity for Māori and Pacific patients6,28,31,33,36 are also factors that contribute to these disparities."
Look, I'm not going to argue the toss with you. We both have different opinions on this issue. Your comment makes complete sense from the medical treatment perspective.
I see it as a racist two tier system that cannot be sustained without a deadly backlash at some stage because it will be a death sentence for some European. The uptake of Maori doing the home screening is a moot point. From my experience it's roughly a 50/50 split of Maori participating in the programme.
''Māori experience more inequalities/barriers when accessing health services than non-Māori''
I also don't agree with that. Talkback has asked Maori representatives time and again to outline examples of inequalities/barriers in our health systems. None could. That's because there are few. There are now way more racist doctors and nurses around. The reason? They have had a gutsful of abuse and non compliance of Maori to follow treatment advice.
I won’t ask you to link to those alleged talk-back shows because you simply refuse to front up and support your assertions because facts don’t matter to you.
A simple Google search, however, gives plenty of info, which you’ll probably ignore too, as usual, because of weak methods, weak data, and mostly because it doesn’t fit with your narrative and doesn’t confirm your bias.
Table 3. Barriers to health experienced by Māori patients and their whānau.
''I won’t ask you to link to those alleged talk-back shows because you simply refuse to front up and support your assertions because facts don’t matter to you.''
It's a fluid medium and I usually catch the tail end of interviews. I have now taken to having a pad near the radio so I can take some notes. The first result is the interview with Sir Lockwood Smith on the HWEN thread. ( incidentally, probably the best interview on this topic, on this blog)
Now, do you know why those spokespeople on talkback couldn't give answers to simple questions? It's because they are used to talking and writing in lingo like this from your link.
''Methods: A systematic search using PRISMA protocols and reflexive typology organised around the categories of Māori, public healthcare and qualitative research identified 14 papers that covered all three categories. We undertook a qualitative metasynthesis on these papers using a critical community psychology approach.''
''Correspondingly, Māori families accessing hospital care for a child encounter systemic barriers.13 Biomedical and reductionist models that focus on presenting symptoms dominate health research approaches,14, 15 and the experiences of marginalised groups are subsumed into dominant individualistic, colonial narratives.15 In short, Māori healthcare needs are not being met.''
Sounds fantastic. Very important. Vey concise and well researched.
But when taken off this reservation of puffery and asked a simple question demanding an objective answer grounded in reality…they flounder.
How do I reach my conclusions. Simple, I ask people I know who work in the health system. Most admit they have little time for Maori. And it shows. When I have had appointments at hospital clinics, or I have accompanied family members, at least 50% of doctors and nurses treat me/us disrespectfully. I have to earn their respect( that annoys me). But here's the thing, once I/we have shown the doctors we have done what they ask…they change and fall over backwards for us. Never have a problem with them again. Eg:
I took an old aunt for an out patients appointment. The doctor was at his desk holding his chin in one hand( body language sign for negative thoughts) He tersely introduced himself and said '' I don't suppose you brought your medications with you?'' I said ''Yes, we have them. We also have her discharge papers from her last stay in hospital and a GPs letter.''
Lol.. he looked up in surprise and said good… good.. very good. He now looks after aunt like his own mother. Hell, the staff have to make her a cuppa after her appointment. Why the change? Because he had some Maoris who actually met him half way.
Yes, you are correct. I reject most of your korero.
What is "disgusting" are ignorant fools braying their flatulent reckons about complex population health programmes based on talkback and anecdata.
The case for reduced screening ages for equity is not at all in doubt. Should have been done from the get-go, as experts advised. I worked alongside many of them at the time.
'''What is "disgusting" are ignorant fools braying their flatulent reckons about complex population health programmes based on talkback and anecdata.''
What would you know?
'The case for reduced screening ages for equity is not at all in doubt.''
Can you read? I have written this to Grafton Gully.
''Look, I'm not going to argue the toss with you. We both have different opinions on this issue. Your comment makes complete sense from the medical treatment perspective.''
What about Pakeha, Sacha?
They'll just have to try pot luck, eh? Let em die in the gutter. They can afford a decent funeral. You make me puke.
By the way, I wonder who on average would be taking better care of their health – 50 year old Pakeha, or 50 year old Maori.
You have no trouble consigning fellow Nzers to a possible death sentence because of your racism.
''You are just embarrassing yourself.''
I don't mind embarrassing myself if it means I'm not a racist like you.
Oh, here's a gift from talkback radio. Who knows it could work for bowel cancer?
One of the he worst forms of racism is when one resists and rejects any attempts at dealing with racism with the absurd argument that this would amount to reverse-racism. In effect, these are racism apologists and they continue to propagate racism.
''One of the he worst forms of racism is when one resists and rejects any attempts at dealing with racism with the absurd argument that this would amount to reverse-racism.''
But that is predicated on our health system being racist towards Maori. I have told you my experiences GENERALLY show otherwise if you meet doctors half way. You have only offered studies and other peoples opinions.
And if all these Maori don't like our general health system, why aren't they enrolling themselves at Hauora Maori health services? Something doesn't gel. Sure they may still have to use public health services, but most general care would be done in a holistic Maori way.
''In effect, these are racism apologists and they continue to propagate racism.''
The problem here is a definition of this situation. You are focused on supposed racism around medical treatment Maori receive. But Maori get lush funding across a variety of sectors, including health.
I'm taking a global approach. You cannot have this two tier system and expect our nation not to divide and a backlash to ensue. It just isn't possible.
Have you not learnt from South Africa, Rhodesia, tribalism in Africa etc. These are paths we are going down and you seem quite happy with that.
''If you keep up these unhinged absurd attacks on others who call out your ignorance you will receive a ban.''
How can it be an unhinged attack when we are throwing fellow NZers under the bus? That's a fact. I point this out and you want to ban me.
You have only offered studies and other peoples opinions.
You missed the point again. I offered you a Table with barriers, which is what you asked for, and then you reject it because it doesn’t align with your own limited experience and you start bleating again about what happened when your aunty hurt her toe.
You are focused on supposed racism around medical treatment Maori receive. But Maori get lush funding across a variety of sectors, including health.
So, I gave you one paper that included 18 years of research in this area based on numerous accounts and individual experiences and you retort with “supposed racism”!? You’re in denial about anything that you cannot see in your yard and supermarket. You’re as blind as a bat, Blade. And you think you know best because only your account matters or matters most.
Whether or not Māori “get”, whatever that means, lush funding is not the point. The point is whether any funding, targeted or not, reaches them and has appositive impact on outcomes for them. The overwhelming evidence so far tells us this is not happening. This is the difference between inequality and inequity.
You can take whatever approach you like because it will be to no avail. There’s already a 2-tier system in NZ, which is called health inequities, so you don’t have to go look afar and can stay close to home.
The unhinged attack was on another commenter, which is bannable offence here. But you already know that.
''Whether or not Māori “get”, whatever that means.''
How about ''receive''?
''The point is whether any funding, targeted or not, reaches them and has appositive impact on outcomes for them. The overwhelming evidence so far tells us this is not happening. This is the difference between inequality and inequity.''
Do you realise what you are saying? You are saying millions is going down the gurgler, some to Maori health providers, with little impact on Maori health outcomes.
'''This is the difference between inequality and inequity.''
I'm sorry. To my way of thinking this is incompetence and poor accounting. Heads should roll.
''You can take whatever approach you like because it will be to no avail. There’s already a 2-tier system in NZ, which is called health inequities, so you don’t have to go look afar and can stay close to home.''
OK, here's the bottom line for you in my opinion. You won't hear this from anyone else on this blog:
" This coming election will be about race. And National will win barring a disaster that allows Jacinda to shine. But it will be just the beginning because National won't get on top of crime. And they won't have the balls to force change that makes Maori more accountable for individual health outcomes. The country will part along race lines even though to an outsider things will look normal. Mixed partnership relationships will go through hell, and schools will become off limits for many. Personal safety will be at risk every time you leave your property. That's the way I see it if you want to keep doing down this path of inequality and inequity.
In fact the split is starting already in urban areas.
Now, do you know why those spokespeople on talkback couldn't give answers to simple questions?
No idea, because I don’t know whom you’re talking about and as far as I know you’ve made it all up in your head – without some back-up evidence we cannot listen & check for ourselves. You fail at this time and time again. I also note that simple questions are often meaningless because they’re often based in ignorance & bias. A good interviewer guides the interviewee(s) to build, explain, and argue their case rather than going for lazy cheap point-scoring inter-rupting talking-over gotcha’s to confirm the bias of their listener-base and bosst their show's ratings (and their ego, of course).
But when taken off this reservation of puffery and asked a simple question demanding an objective answer grounded in reality…they flounder.
Nope, you flounder, in the technical stuff, which you then use as an excuse to reject and ignore the findings even though they came from well-researched studies over 18 years including 372 participants. WTF is an 'objective answer' anyway?
If you had opened your mind and taken a little of your time to read the linked paper you would have seen that your own anecdotal experience might fit in well with that of others, for example:
Experiences of coldness, micro-aggressions, discriminatory behaviour and shaming communicate a sense of ‘not-belonging’ and result in Māori patients and whānau disengaging and/or actively avoiding healthcare-related interactions as much as possible. This disengagement is a sensible tactic that works to sustain and maintain one's sense of self when under attack.
I note that you appear to have very low levels of respect for others whom you dislike and prone to using your fists.
Table 3 of the linked paper was easy enough to take in without all the techno lingo, but you found an excuse to even ignore that even though you asked for it!?
These 14 studies covering the past 18 years of Māori experiences of healthcare tell of an alienating public health system. Māori patients and their whānau consistently experience barriers between themselves and the health treatment they require (and are legally entitled to). Such experiences are a continuation of ongoing exclusion.
There are none so blind as those who will not see. Your conclusions are flawed and weak, your views are therefore flawed and distorted (aka biased) and it shows in almost every comment you make – debating with you is an exercise in utter futility, as others have already found out and you keep confirming fo us time and time again.
I think we can't communicate because you have to run everything through your ideological filter, and then you accuse me of basically the same thing. Who knows, we may both have a point.
I have stated I will now take notes re talkback. Anything I repeat from talkback will now be time stamped if possible.
''I note that you appear to have very low levels of respect for others whom you dislike and prone to using your fists.''
Crikey, have you seen some of the replies to me on this blog lately? I can post a few if you like. Prone to using my fists? That's not true. Where do you get that perception from?
So , I have sat at my key board thinking how I could sum my views up in as few words as possible to save the tit for tat:
''Maori are the authors of most negative experiences they encounter in our health system. Their ignorance, in many cases, reinforces the behaviour of already bigoted health professionals. Other fair minded health professionals are driven towards racist attitudes by the abuse they receive from Maori. That leads to most Maori copping negative outcomes when engaging with our health system.''
I think we can’t communicate because you have to run everything through your ideological filter, and then you accuse me of basically the same thing.
Interesting thesis. What would my ‘ideology’ be, in this context? Perhaps fact-based reasoning leads to better debating outcomes and is more likely to produce a discernible truth or interpretation of reality that is mutually agreeable?
You refuse to back up your assertions and claims of fact, your explanations leave much to the imagination and a lot to be desired, and you write off any counter evidence and counter-arguments when they don’t feel right to you. In other words, yours is the ‘ideology’ of a troll.
Your idiosyncratic disrespect is ubiquitous and omnipresent. You only seem to have respect for talk-back and Raptor Squad. And you brag about knocking out others.
Your views are rigid and set in stone. You have not taken in one thing from a simple Table about Barriers to health experienced by Māori patients and their whanau and keep reverting back to your own narrow-minded views and self-limited anecdotal experience.
You almost tick all the stereotypical boxes of a RWNJ listening to shock-jocks on talk-back. Some would argue that we should listen to and engage with people such as you. I’d say that this appears to be an utter waste of time and you’re just a huge distraction here and a megaphone for RWNJ noise & nuisance.
There is no context. You are a Leftie and everything goes through the same filter. Unless I have you pegged wrong and you are to the Right of politics but have a liberal social justice view?
Perhaps fact-based reasoning leads to better debating outcomes and is more likely to produce a discernible truth or interpretation of reality that is mutually agreeable?
Debating facts is one thing. Understanding trends is another. Notice as a general rule how I'm half a step ahead of what will break in the news, or on this blog, as a item of interest? For example at the time of you banning me for a month
You’re throwing around lazy labels and bumper stickers to see what might stick. No substance whatsoever, just another excuse for you to continue your inane and mostly unsupported comments here. My ‘ideology’ or ‘filter’ have got nothing to with your comments.
A trend based on what? On feels from talk-back? You understand very little of what you read here, elsewhere, or what you hear on talk-back and you cannot construct a decent argument. You lack understanding and your spoiler is feels and ‘psychic imprints’ laced with ‘paramagnetism’.
You’re so far behind that you think you’re ahead and the rest of us are catching up with you. Please bail out gracefully.
When isn't the health system under pressure in winter, and in the first winter of a one in one hundred year pandemic? If rich prick boomers would stop dodging buying rentals and dodging tax for five seconds, the health system might have a fighting chance.
Crime seems acute right now but we have assimilated a lot of people on the edges of society (from Australia) in the last two years. It's what responsible countries do.
Bowel cancer screening targeted to those at high risk? Well, blow me down, that seems sensible to me considering the limited resources we have.
Using attendance stats right now, again in the middle of a one in one hundred year pandemic, is not helpful. Everyone is asked to stay at home if symptoms are present. Also, families are cautious about bringing Covid into vulnerable, multigenerational households. This is sensible right now but our behaviour will adjust as we slowly return to what was considered normal.
I its pretty much same old same old, just the results of years of oppression and unfortunately it will take a lot more years to reverse and I believe with Luxon at the helm it never will.
I believe your a prison officer, in a position better than most too see the situation and my question to you is how many of your clients would be there if they had had a dad to get them plum job at unilever : ( 3rd biggest plastic polluter i read yesterday)
" They know the longer Luxon is in the media limelight, the more his incompetence and religious fundamentalism will be exposed "
Yeah that has been proven to not be a vote loser after all Key's bullshit and dubious claims they still voted for him and the other deplorables in 2008 , 2011 and 2014.
There seems to be this belief that New Zealand voters will see through a dismal opposition Nasty Natz leader……they don't ! the worse they are the more votes they get.
You can always rely on the hobbits to vote to vote for their own demise ..present leadership accepted of course.
Can't see any reason for Labour to call a snap election.
NZ voters, traditionally, don't like them; incumbent governments don't do well.
And, on current polling, it would very much be a toss up, if the left won (and would be a coalition Labour/Green possibly TPM, rather than the outright majority they currently have).
They'd also effectively junk all of the legislation they have in train (even if they won, it would be a politically new ballgame over 'government' legislation).
It would also be bitterly opposed by the majority of the Labour list MPs – at high risk of losing seats.
Really, not a valid choice. What could Labour possibly gain?
And, who would think that Ardern would be so politically naive?
" NZ voters, traditionally, don't like them; incumbent governments don't do well "
Helen just did fine in the winter election of July 27 2002 , she maintained her majority, the first since Muldoon's scnapps election in 1984 after getting a canning in the right wing media for asking the G.G for a dissolution when the Alliance collapsed and was going to have problems passing legislation in the house.
Now LINO would be hard pressed to gain a majority but MMP can deliver some unusual results.
A lot of that support went to the centrist United (Peter Dunne) party & to Peter’s NZ First (see Swordfish’s excellent analysis, below)
Really, centre NZ doesn't like snap elections. Which are always (so far) perceived as electioneering by the Government.
There's a very strong argument, that Clark would have done much better to wait until the 'official' election date in Oct/Nov. She could very easily have eaten a bit of humble pie and gone to the Greens for confidence and supply for the next 4 months – if she, indeed, needed to – it's highly unlikely that the other parties would have formed a coalition against her (I mean, can you envisage Alliance and Green MPs voting in the House with National?). And there is, in any case, little significant legislation usually passed in the 4 months leading up to an election. As it was, many voters just saw this as electioneering – and her hoping to turn the (then) high Labour support into an outright majority.
" Have a look at the opinion polls, directly after the snap election was announced "
I don't need to I was around at the time and well remember the polling numbers. Its hard to see her keeping those numbers before the early election announcement as her thinking was going to the country on October 6th 2002 but went three months early and a some loss of polling support was going to occur.
She was always going to face a split in the vote on the right due to the catastrophic collapse of the National party and it made no difference when the election was.
She was still returned with an increased majority on 1999 hardly a failure.
As for swordfish I always appreciate your in depth analysis as it helps contributors like Belladonna with factual information.
She was in with a chance of an absolute majority. Dropped signifiantly in the polls (10%+ is a significant change). Had to negotiate with Dunne & Peters.
Even you said: "Some loss of polling was going to occur"
Yes, that's the point, as I said, NZ centrist voters don't like snap elections. Labour won in 2020. There is a very strong argument that they would have had a greater majority if Clark hadn't called a snap election.
Like Swordfish, I provide facts and links — you just provide 'reckons'.
" She was in with a chance of an absolute majority "
In with a chance but not guaranteed !! Exactly she was never going to get a majority in a right wing media , business environment and when people had a chance to focus on the issues the date of the election was soon forgotten about.
I just provide " recons " and you just provide " what ifs "
The date of the election as she said herself and many people who held an opinion was that they had made up their minds by polling day and returned the Labour party in significant numbers that opportunists like Dunne and Peters came to the table to negotiate with Clark not English and despite the " early poll " the next government was a Labour led one in a MMP parliament.
I disagreed about your argument regarding the early election announcement. Helen was never going to go into the general election that year whenever it was held with 52 % support.
Incumbent governments always drop some , a little some a lot depending on circumstances at the time.
Yes my opinion after watching and participating in election campaigns in this country since 1984.
Loss of support for calling an early election ….well to make you happy then some members of the electorate took offense ….but only the ones who never intended to vote for Clark -Cullen anyway.
Labour voters still came out in the middle of winter and voted ..Labour up from 39% in 1999 to 42% in July 2002 and delivered 52 seats
No doubt, you believe that Ardern should call a snap election right now – because all those Labour voters from 2020 will be out in droves in the middle of winter to vote for her.
Meanwhile, in the real world….. the rest of us recognize that calling a snap election would be a losing proposition for the Government.
" No doubt, you believe that Ardern should call a snap election right now – because all those Labour voters from 2020 will be out in droves in the middle of winter to vote for her "
No when you decide to go to the country you weigh up all possible scenarios including a pandemic.
2020 and a majority was down to the fear the electorate was expercining regarding the pandemic and the governments approach.
This is 2022 not 2002 in case you lost track of time.
I have never suggested that this diversion of a snap election which is just nonsense would need to be called now. The government still has a majority to pass laws ( the one's they choose to ) and has the numbers on the select committees unlike 2002.
The New Zealand public don't really seem to go for parties calling snap elections. The only 2 recent ones, 1984 and 2002, didn't really work out to well for the party that called them.
For example, in 2002, Labour dropped from about 52% to 41% in the month before election day. Those people all seem to have swung to NZF (up from 3.8% to 10.4%) and United (up from nothing to 6.7%). That was certainly not what Helen Clark expected I suspect.
I used to know Jack Marshall. He once commented that the only effect of calling a snap election in 1951 was that National had 8 years in power instead of 9.
If Labour tried to call a snap election this year I suspect they would be hammered by the electorate. There is no excuse to do it except the hope that they can scrape back in for another term before their support goes far below having any hope. I really don't think that the public, or the Maori caucus, would go for it. Grab what you can while you can is more likely and they will hold on until the end of November 2023 before going to the Polls.
For example, in 2002, Labour dropped from about 52% to 41% in the month before election day. Those people all seem to have swung to NZF (up from 3.8% to 10.4%) and United (up from nothing to 6.7%). That was certainly not what Helen Clark expected I suspect.
Probably more complex than that. The New Zealand Election Study Campaign Flow-of-the-Vote data suggests easily the largest swing away from Labourduring the campaign was, in fact, into non-voting. Almost a quarter of those expressing an intention to vote Labour when the 2002 campaign commenced ultimately stayed at home. Which was considered extraordinary at the time.
The 2nd greatest 2002 campaign defection from Labour was indeed to NZF (but far, far behind the move into non-voting), followed by those switching from Labour-to-National (yep, even though the Nats fell to their 21% nadir, a Lab-to-Nat swing still occurred) … and then, in 4th place (in terms of Lab campaign defections) Labour-to-United.
NZF's campaign surge certainly came largely (though not exclusively) courtesy of erstwhile Labour voters … but United's sudden boost appears to have come fairly equally from previously-intending Labour & National voters.
Reason ?: A Question of Gates
The NZES found Paintergate & Wormgate did the lion's share of damage to Labour support during the 02 campaign …
… (although it's certainly also true that Clark's decision to call a Snap Election in the first place proved unpopular with the electorate … and her stated desire for single party government was deemed arrogant by many according to polling … so these provided a kind of background context that probably slightly loosened the attachment of a segment of intending Labour voters, putting them up for grabs once Paintergate & Wormgate reared their less-than-pretty heads).
The fallout from Corngate (including the Left looking divided) appears to have only played a secondary role in Labour's plunge (ie overshadowed by the other -gates)
Paintergate saw Clark lose credibility with a hefty segment of erstwhile Labour intenders on what were her strongest attributes – trustworthiness & competence – & therefore she took a clear hit in her Preferred PM rating (which NZES was measuring on a daily basis throughout the campaign).
Whereas Wormgate provided those centrist / swinging voters who were intially intending to vote Labour with a (suddenly new) viable alternative (United), closer to their broad policy preferences.
In the dying few days, however, Clark did manage to recover a little of the lost ground (Labour had fallen toward the mid-to-late 30s by the start of the final week) & she recovered all of Preferred PM rating … demonstrating, as in the 1996 campaign, her ability to rise to the occasion at pivotal moments (although, of course, only a very partialParty Vote recovery).
If Labour tried to call a snap election this year I suspect they would be hammered by the electorate.
Yes once the corporate media run with " paintergates and other distractions designed to erode public credibility.
Funny how one of the biggest scandals in recent history was Key's henchmen involved in a concerted effort to destroy the reputations of their opposition opponents and whale oils participation in attacking and destroying people's reputations and a black ops being run out of the PMs office yet unlike " painter gate " Key escaped unscathed.
Friends in the corporate media are good friends to have ..they are fearful of you and want to keep their jobs. Money talks as well. Key made sure he cultivated the media.
I think the prospect of a snap election is very unlikely.
The possibility would be more likely if Labour was in a position to win at the moment, but felt the chances of winning were decreasing with the progress of time towards the election.
However, based on current polling, there is a good chance that Labour could lose in a snap election scenario. Especially since the voting public takes a fairly negative view of snap elections, especially if they are seen to be a cynical attempt to stay in power.
So, the logical thing to do would be to hang on and hope things turn around for them between now and the election.
So, unless there is some compelling reason for a snap election, such as half the Labour caucus resigning at once, then I just don't see it happening.
And in 12 months 3 Waters will be a distant memory and inflation will be under control.
Those two issues are the only things keeping National in the game currently. With them gone, Labour should ease back into office (perhaps with the support of the Greens)
3 Waters may or may not be an issue by then. But it does feed into a narrative that National will build on around similar issues, and will probably be part of a picture that National tries to paint about a government being out of touch and refusing to listen.
Inflation will be a much harder one to crack by then. We have had huge amounts of money printing going on within NZ that has fed into our own inflation. Plus we are importing inflation from other countries that have been doing the same.
The big problem for Labour is that any capacity to borrow and spend has already been borrowed and spent. So, any new spending they promise during their election campaign is going to feed into inflation issue. Something I am sure National will jump on gleefully.
I think you are being a bit optimistic about that James, I expect that inflation and co- governance/3 waters will still be front and centre in 12 months.
The Snap Election chatter shows that National have deployed their most powerful policy initiative: Wishful thinking.
A switched on media would have great fun mocking them mercilessly for it, but the freaks and monsters that dominate contemporary NZ media are part of the joke.
I well remember the fun that was had over the silliest remit ever passed at a Labour conference. Back in the 1970s someone wanted public servants to be banned from wearing shorts and roman sandals during the summer months. Instead they were to wear long shorts (below the knee) knee length socks and shoes. The cartoonists, comedians, McPhail and Gadsby had a ball.
I suspect a Labour official with an S.o.H. let the remit go to conference.
I recall a couple of TV skits but they were independent of any TV productions. The "Gliding On" series was among the best comedy produced in NZ. The characters came across as so realistic. I think they are all dead now.
It was a great NZ production. I remember that government minister Mike Moore made a cameo appearance in one episode. They don't make comedy like that anymore.
National must have been listening to that old sixties Burt Bacharach song "Wishing and Hoping".
A government with a majority on its own in an MMP parliament, half way through a term and with a full legislative book of things to do does not go for a snap election.
If you truly believe Labours polling will improve over the next 12 months, then yes, you should wait and hold a general election next year.
But on the other hand, if you believe Labour will continue to lose support over the next 12 months, then an early election would be their best bet.
For me, I don't see Labours polling improving anytime soon. I believe the rot has set in, inflation will hit near on 10% and the war on Ukraine will continue unabated. Add to this that the media and public in general are far more hostile towards parties of the left lately, covid fatigue has set in, and brand Ardern is becoming more toxic, I don't see how people can be optimistic about our future prospects.
What policies or future outlook are people seeing that makes them confident that Labours fortunes will turn?
That sounds like wishful thinking on your part MickeyBoyle
Desperate would describe Hooton and Prebbles. Looks like the right wing see Jacinda as the road block to National gaining power. Hooten & Prebbles know a snap election is not even on the cards. This is just dirty politics.
What policies or future outlook do National have?
In what way has "Brand Ardern" become toxic?
Do you have a crystal ball to know with 100% certainty, what will happen over the next 12 months?
Baseless rumours of impending resignation etc put out by right wingers is not new
''Looks like the right wing see Jacinda as the road block to National gaining power.''
Allow me to correct you, Louis. National used to see Jacinda as a road block to gaining power. She could do no wrong. The mushy middle vote loved her. The world sung her praises. But that shine has tainted; a grey patina is all that's left. She is now a National Party asset, along with Robbo Hood and Kris Faafoi.
What policies or future outlook do National have?
Here's one. It's completely inadequate but better than nothing.
It appears you don't know much Blade and it is a nothing.
haha. it turns out these 'new measures' are literally just their 2020 policies reheated. Luxon still hasn't presented a new policy, only copied Judith Collins' https://t.co/ndfRBcQtnPpic.twitter.com/v3dXmGIdX2
There is no consensus on the exact definition of a gang, however, and scholars have debated whether the definition should expressly include involvement in crime. Some gangs, but not all, have strong leadership, formalized rules, and extensive use of common identifying symbols. Many gangs associate themselves with a particular geographic area or type of crime, and some use graffiti as a form of nonverbal communication.
Robbing from the poor to give to the rich is one quality (eg Lowering taxes, cutting public services, etc.. )
It seems you have a problem with comprehension. But I won't take it further. At the end of the day it will be of no importance because Labour won’t be the government.
Oh, this may be a reason. While Rome burned, Poto and Labour were to busy doing a Marco. Gadflying with shades on…what what!
that’s assuming her brand was toxic in the first place. If you really want an experience head to the toxic wasteland that is Kiwi Blog or the Heralds comments section.
What policies or future outlook are people seeing that makes them confident that Labours fortunes will turn?
Other way around, I think. It's virtually too late for a snap election to capitalise on Labour in a lead position – that boat has sailed.
It would only result in them losing power a year early (as I said above, even if they won it would be as a 2- or 3-way coalition – rather than the outright majority they have now)
So, lots of pain, little or no gain.
However, if they wait, there is the hope that 3 waters will have settled, inflation will be more under control, and the various building/development programmes they have underway will have had a chance to show some real benefits.
I wouldn't be confident or even optimistic that this will happen, but there is always the chance.
Yeah, that's what worries me. Jacinda has been blessed with disasters. That's when she's at her best. And I would be guttered if the gods gave her another disaster in 2023. Something like an earthquake, terrorist attack on the Sky Tower or China attacking Taiwan. Kiwi voters are so thick they would look at her managing another disaster and think: 'This woman deserves another go.'' Groan!
If someone, anyone, could step up with a roadmap to solve the obvious problems we have it wouldnt matter whether he, she or they was tattooed from arsehole to breakfast time or had no dress sense or was eccentric, whatever…if they could offer more than waffly criticism and convince me they had a plan to address our problems I'd vote for them tomorrow ….we can all, myself included itemise the problems, the leadership we need has to outline a convincing solution…where are they?
by Daphna Whitmore I thought the #LetWomenSpeak meeting would be a good time to talk about free speech and why it is important for the left. Then the mob stampeded the open-air gathering and no one got to speak. Here’s what I was had prepared. Today I want to talk ...
By Don Franks Today my friend Ani O’Briien went to a meeting in Auckland and wrote: “No sooner had Kellie-Jay Keen Minshull arrived at the Rotunda, a protestor (who had managed to get past the barrier) ran at her and threw a red substance all over her and a security ...
Jonathan Milne, managing editor for Newsroom Pro, has expressed his indignation about the outcome of a court decision yesterday in an article headed Posie Parker wins the beautiful freedom to make an ugly argument.Newsroom Pro laments: High Court Justice David Gendall has regretfully allowed an outspoken anti-trans activist to enter New ...
imagine my surprise this week when the National Party, in their infinite wisdom, decided to release an education policy. As you can imagine, this got us so riled up here in the office that we dusted off our Windows XP laptop, waiting 17 hours for all the updates to be ...
Come on Jess thought Mr Evans come on. He watched the large clock on the wall tick closer to 8:40am. Come on girl.In two minutes he had to submit the class attendance report and with Jess having already been late once that term it’d mean an automatic visit from the ...
This week’s UN IPCC report warned climate emissions will need to be cut by almost half by 2030, if warming is to be limited to 1.5°C. Bronwyn Hayward points out in The Hoon podcast how far behind NZ’s government and councils are now on climate action compared to the rest ...
Chris Hipkins, after he became prime minister, committed to defeating the cost-of- living crisis. He proceeded to make a bonfire of policies that were at the heart of Jacinda Ardern’s administration. But, as Richard Prebble pointed out this week, “the government has not just U-turned, it has repudiated the ...
There are some wellness, crystal-gazing, holistic spiritual guidance types in my disaster-hit coastal community who insist that the power of positive thinking will overcome the physical and material damages incurred by the community. They object to restrictions on road travel … Continue reading → ...
Evaluating the recent crashes of Silicon Valley Bank in the US and Credit Suisse in Switzerland plus two other banks (perhaps more by the time you read this) needs to begin with a review of the inevitable instability in the financial sector. The financial sector is inherently unstable, like military ...
1. We see here new police minister Ginny Andersen. Which larger than life NZ political figure was her great-uncle?a. Rob Muldoonb. Bill Andersenc. Richard John Seddond. Norman Kirk2. We see here archival footage of Ginny Andersen coming out of her electorate office to ask ex-tobacco lobbyist Chris Bishop if he ...
Buzz from the Beehive Stuart Nash, speaking as Minister of Oceans and Fisheries, one of his remaining portfolios after he was dropped down the Hipkins Government batting order, has drawn attention to the blue economy and its potential. Nash says the government is investing in the blue economy, or – ...
Photo by Josh Mills on UnsplashIt’s that time of the week for an ‘Ask Me Anything’ session for paying subscribers about the week that was for the next hour, including:The runs on Silicon Valley Bank and First Republic Bank on the west coast of the United States that forced the ...
Roundup is back! We skipped last week’s Friday post due to a shortage of person-power – did you notice? Lots going on out there… Our header image this week shows a green street that just happens to be Queen St, by @chamfy from Twitter. This week (and last) in ...
After threatening Prime Minister Chris Hipkins of consequences if he dared to bar her entry, Kellie-Jay Keen-Minshull has been given her visa, regardless. This will enable her to hold rallies in Auckland and Wellington this weekend, and spread her messages of hostility against an already marginalised trans community. Neo-Nazis may, ...
* Bryce Edwards writes – The New Zealand Government has been silent about Australia’s decision to commit up to $400bn acquiring nuclear submarines, even though this is a significant threat to peace and stability in the Asia Pacific. The deal was struck by the Albanese Labor Government as ...
Boomers voted him in, but Brown’s Trumpish moments might spook Aucklanders worried about what a change to National nationally might mean. Photo: Lynn Grieveson/Getty ImagesTL;DR:Auckland MayorWayne Brown has become our version of Donald Trump and Boris Johnson, except without any of the insatiable appetite for media appearances. He ...
The New Zealand Government has been silent about Australia’s decision to commit up to $400bn acquiring nuclear submarines, even though this is a significant threat to peace and stability in the Asia Pacific. The deal was struck by the Albanese Labor Government as part of its Aukus pact with the ...
Recently you might have heard of a person called Posie Parker and her visit to Aotearoa. Perhaps you’re not quite sure what it’s all about. So let’s start with who this person is, why their visit is controversial, and what on earth a TERF is.Posie Parker is the super villain ...
The chair of Parliament’s Select Committee looking at the Government’s resource management legislation wants the bills sent back for more public consultation. The proposal would effectively kill any chance of the bills making it into law before the election. Green MP, Eugenie Sage, stressing that she was speaking as ...
Open access notables The United States experienced some historical low temperature records during the just-concluded winter. It's a reminder that climate and weather are quite noisy; with regard to our warming climate,, as with a road ascending a mountain range we may steadily change our conditions but with lots of ...
Buzz from the Beehive The Nanny State has scored some wins (or claimed them) in the past day or two but it faltered when it came to protecting Kiwi citizens from being savaged by one woman armed with a sharp tongue. The wins are recorded by triumphant ministers on the ...
Sometimes you see your friends making the case so well on social media you think: just copy and share.On acceptance and decency, from Michèle A’CourtA notable thing about anti-trans people is they way they talk about transgender women and men as though they are strangers “over there” when in fact ...
Not that long ago, things were looking pretty good for climate change policy in Aotearoa. We finally had an ETS, and while it was full of pork and subsidies, it was delivering high and ever-rising carbon prices, sending a clear message to polluters to clean up or shut down. And ...
Comparing (and switching) electricity providers has become easier, but bundling power up with broadband and/or gas makes it more challenging. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The Kākā TL;DR: The new Consumer Advocacy Council set up as a result of the Labour Government’s Electricity Price Review in 2019 has called on either ...
Hokitika-based Westland Milk Products has put the heat on dairy giant Fonterra with a $120m profit turnaround in 2022, driven by record sales. Westland paid its suppliers a 10c premium above the forecast Fonterra price per kilo, contributing $535m to the West Coast and Canterbury economies. The dairy ...
* Bryce Edwards writes – New Zealanders are uncomfortable with the high level of influence corporate lobbyists have in New Zealand politics, and demands are growing for greater regulation. A recent poll shows 62 per cent of the public support having a two-year cooling off period between ministers leaving public ...
New Zealanders are uncomfortable with the high level of influence corporate lobbyists have in New Zealand politics, and demands are growing for greater regulation. A recent poll shows 62 per cent of the public support having a two-year cooling off period between ministers leaving public office and becoming lobbyists and ...
This is a guest post by accessibility and sustainable transport advocate Tim Adriaansen It originally appeared here. A friend calls you and asks for your help. They tell you that while out and about nearby, they slipped over and landed arms-first. Now their wrist is swollen, hurting like ...
Floating offshore wind turbines offer incredible opportunities to capture powerful winds far out at sea. By unlocking this wind energy potential, they could be a key weapon in our arsenal in the fight against climate change. But how developed are these climate fighting clean energy giants? And why do I ...
Over the past two or three weeks, a procession of Maori iwi and hapu in a series of little-noticed appearances before two Select Committees have been asking for more say for Maori over resource management decisions along the co-governance lines of Three Waters. Their submissions and appearances run counter ...
The decision of the International Criminal Court (ICC) to issue war crimes arrest warrants for the Russian President and the Russia Children Ombudsman may have been welcomed by the ideologically committed but otherwise seems to have been greeted with widespread cynicism (see Situation in Ukraine: ICC judges issue arrest warrants ...
Let’s say you’re clasping your drink at a wedding, or a 40th, or a King’s Birthday Weekend family reunion and Drunk Uncle Kevin has just got going.He’s in an expansive frame of mind because we’re finally rid of that silly girl. But he wants to ask an honest question about ...
National Party leader Christopher Luxon may be feeling glum about his poll ratings, but he could be tapping into a rich political vein in describing the current state of education as “alarming”. Luxon said educational achievement has been declining, with a recent NCEA pilot exposing just how far it has ...
Way Beyond Reform: Rawiri Waititi and Debbie Ngarewa-Packer have no more interest in remaining permanent members of “New Zealand’s” House of Representatives than did Lenin and Trotsky in remaining permanent members of Tsar Nicolas II’s “democratically-elected” Duma. Like the Bolsheviks, Te Pāti Māori is a party of revolutionaries – not reformists.THE CROWN ...
Buzz from the Beehive Auckland was wiped off the map, when Education Minister Jan Tinetti delivered her speech of welcome as host of the inaugural Conference of Pacific Education Ministers “here in Tāmaki Makaurau”. But – fair to say – a reference was made later in the speech to a ...
Morning mate, how you going?Well, I was watching the news last night and they announced this scientific report on Climate Change. But before they got to it they had a story about the new All Blacks coach.Sounds like important news. It’s a bit of a worry really.Yeah, they were talking ...
Always a bailout: US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the Government would fully guarantee all savers in all smaller US banks if needed. Photo: Getty ImagesTL;DR: No wonder an entire generation of investors are used to ‘buying the dip’ and ‘holding on for dear life’. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen ...
Wealthy vested interests have an oversized influence on political decisions in New Zealand. Partly that’s due to their use of corporate lobbyists. Fortunately, the influence lobbyists can have on decisions made by politicians is currently under scrutiny in Guyon Espiner’s in-depth series published by RNZ. Two of Espiner’s research exposés ...
Yesterday afternoon it rained and traffic around the region ground to a halt, once again highlighting why it is so important that our city gets on with improving the alternatives to driving. For additional irony, this happened on the same day the IPCC synthesis report landed, putting the focus on ...
The Beginning: Anti-Co-Governance agitator, Julian Batchelor, addresses the Dargaville stop of his travelling roadshow across New Zealand . Fascism almost always starts small. Sadly, it doesn’t always stay that way. Especially when the Left helps it to grow.THERE IS A DREADFUL LOGIC to the growth of fascism. To begin with, it ...
Hi,From an incredibly rainy day in Los Angeles, I just wanted to check in. I guess this is the day Trump may or may not end up in cuffs? I’m attempting a somewhat slower, less frenzied week. I’ve had Unknown Mortal Orchestra’s new record on non-stop, and it’s been a ...
On February 14, 2023 we announced our Rebuttal Update Project. This included an ask for feedback about the added "At a glance" section in the updated basic rebuttal versions. This weekly blog post series highlights this new section of one of the updated basic rebuttal versions and serves as a ...
RNZ has been shining their torch into corners where lobbyists lurk and asking such questions as: Do we like the look of this?and Is this as democratic as it could be?These are most certainly questions worth asking, and every bit as valid as, say:Are weshortchanged democratically by the way ...
RNZ has continued its look at the role of lobbyists by taking a closer look at the Prime Minister's Chief of Staff Andrew Kirton. He used to work for liquor companies, opposing (among other things) a container refund scheme which would have required them to take responsibility for their own ...
Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta has left for Beijing for the first ministerial visit to China since 2019. Mahuta is to meet China’s new foreign minister Qin Gang where she might have to call on all the diplomatic skills at her command. Almost certainly she will face questions on what role ...
TL;DR:The Opportunities Party’s Leader Raf Manji is hopeful the party’s new Teal Card, a type of Gold card for under 30s, will be popular with students, and not just in his Ilam electorate where students make up more than a quarter of the voters and where Manji is confident ...
When I was a kid New Zealand was actually pretty green. We didn’t really have plastic. The fruit and veges came in a cardboard box, the meat was wrapped in paper, milk came in a glass bottle, and even rubbish sacks were made of paper. Today if you sit down ...
Looking back through the names of our Police Ministers down the years, the job has either been done by once or future party Bigfoots – Syd Holland, Richard Prebble, Juduth Collins, Chris Hipkins – or by far lesser lights like Keith Allen, Frank Gill, Ben Couch, Allen McCready, Clem Simich, ...
Chris Trotter writes – The Crown is a fickle friend. Any political movement deemed to be colourful but inconsequential is generally permitted to go about its business unmolested. The Crown’s media, RNZ and TVNZ, may even “celebrate” its existence (presumably as proof of Democracy’s broad-minded acceptance of diversity). ...
Four out of the five people who have held the top role of Prime Minister’s Chief of Staff since 2017 have been lobbyists. That’s a fact that should worry anyone who believes vested interests shouldn’t have a place at the centre of decision making. Chris Hipkins’ newly appointed Chief of ...
Feedback on Auckland Council’s draft 2023/24 budget closes on March 28th. You can read the consultation document here, and provide feedback here. Auckland Council is currently consulting on what is one of its most important ever Annual Plans – the ‘budget’ of what it will spend money on between July ...
by Molten Moira from Motueka If you want to be a woman let me tell you what to do Get a piece of paper and a biro tooWrite down your new identification And boom! You’re now a woman of this nationSpelled W O M A Na real trans woman that isAs opposed ...
Buzz from the Beehive New Zealand Education Minister Jan Tinetti is hosting the inaugural Conference of Pacific Education Ministers for three days from today, welcoming Education Ministers and senior officials from 18 Pacific Island countries and territories, and from Australia. Here’s hoping they have brought translators with them – or ...
Let’s say you’ve come all the way from His Majesty’s United Kingdom to share with the folk of Australia and New Zealand your antipathy towards certain other human beings. And let’s say you call yourself a women’s rights activist.And let’s say 99 out of 100 people who listen to you ...
James Shaw gave the Green party's annual "state of the planet" address over the weekend, in which he expressed frustration with Labour for not doing enough on climate change. His solution is to elect more Green MPs, so they have more power within any government arrangement, and can hold Labour ...
RNZ this morning has the first story another investigative series by Guyon Espiner, this time into political lobbying. The first story focuses on lobbying by government agencies, specifically transpower, Pharmac, and assorted universities, and how they use lobbyists to manipulate public opinion and gather intelligence on the Ministers who oversee ...
Nick Matzke writes – Dear NZ Herald, I am a Senior Lecturer in the School of Biological Sciences at the University of Auckland. I teach evolutionary biology, but I also have long experience in science education and (especially) political attempts to insert pseudoscience into science curricula in ...
James Shaw has again said the Greens would be better ‘in the tent’ with Labour than out, despite Labour’s policy bonfire last week torching much of what the Government was doing to reduce emissions. File Photo: Lynn Grieveson/Getty ImagesTL;DR: The Green Party has never been more popular than in some ...
This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Sarah Wesseler Poor air quality is a long-standing problem in Los Angeles, where the first major outbreak of smog during World War II was so intense that some residents thought the city had been attacked by chemical weapons. Cars were eventually discovered ...
Yesterday I was reading an excellent newsletter from David Slack, and I started writing a comment “Sounds like some excellent genetic heritage…” and then I stopped.There was something about the phrase genetic heritage that stopped me in tracks. Is that a phrase I want to be saying? It’s kind of ...
Brian Easton writes – Two senior economists challenge some of the foundations of current economics. It is easy to criticise economic science by misrepresenting it, by selective quotations, and by ignoring that it progresses, like all sciences, by improving and abandoning old theories. The critics may go ...
This week marks the twentieth anniversary of the Iraq War. While it strongly opposed the US-led invasion, New Zealand’s then Labour-led government led by Prime Minister Helen Clark did deploy military engineers to try to help rebuild Iraq in mid-2003. With violence soaring, their 12-month deployment ended without being renewed ...
After seventy years, Auckland’s motorway network is finally finished. In July 1953 the first section of motorway in Auckland was opened between Ellerslie-Panmure Highway and Mt Wellington Highway. The final stage opens to traffic this week with the completion of the motorway part of the Northern Corridor Improvements project. Aucklanders ...
National’s appointment of Todd McClay as Agriculture spokesperson clearly signals that the party is in trouble with the farming vote. McClay was not an obvious choice, but he does have a record as a political scrapper. The party needs that because sources say it has been shedding farming votes ...
Rays of white light come flooding into my lounge, into my face from over the top of my neighbour’s hedge. I have to look away as the window of the conservatory is awash in light, as if you were driving towards the sun after a rain shower and suddenly blinded. ...
The columnists in Private Eye take pen names, so I have not the least idea who any of them are. But I greatly appreciate their expert insight, especially MD, who writes the medical column, offering informed and often damning critique of the UK health system and the politicians who keep ...
A chronological listing of news articles posted on the Skeptical Science Facebook Page during the past week: Sun, Mar 12, 2023 thru Sat, Mar 18, 2023. Story of the Week Guest post: What 13,500 citations reveal about the IPCC’s climate science report IPCC WG1 AR6 SPM Report Cover - Changing ...
Buzz from the Beehive The building of financial capability was brought into our considerations when Social Development and Employment Minister Carmel Sepuloni announced she had dipped into the government’s coffers for $3 million for “providers” to help people and families access community-based Building Financial Capability services. That wording suggests some ...
Do you ever come across something that makes you go Hmmmm?You mean like the song?No, I wasn’t thinking of the song, but I am now - thanks for that. I was thinking of things you read or hear that make you stop and go Hmmmm.Yeah, I know what you mean, ...
By the end of the week, the dramas over Stuart Nash overshadowed Hipkins’ policy bonfire. File photo: Lynn GrieveasonTLDR: This week’s news in geopolitics and the political economy covered on The Kākā included:PM Chris Hipkins’ announcement of the rest of a policy bonfire to save a combined $1.7 billion, but ...
When word went out that Prime Minister Chris Hipkins would be making an announcement about Stuart Nash on the tiles at parliament at 2:45pm yesterday, the assumption was that it was over. That we had reached tipping point for Nash’s time as minister. But by 3pm - when, coincidentally, the ...
Two senior economists challenge some of the foundations of current economics. It is easy to criticise economic science by misrepresenting it, by selective quotations, and by ignoring that it progresses, like all sciences, by improving and abandoning old theories. The critics may go on to attack physics by citing Newton.So ...
Photo by Walker Fenton on UnsplashIt’s that time of the week again when and I co-host our ‘hoon’ webinar with paying subscribers to The Kaka for an hour at 5 pm. Jump on this link on Riverside (we’ve moved from Zoom) for our chat about the week’s news with ...
In a nice bit of news, my 2550-word deindustrial science-fiction piece, The Dream of Florian Neame, has been accepted for publication at New Maps Magazine (https://www.new-maps.com/). I have published there before, of course, with Of Tin and Tintagel coming out last year. While I still await the ...
In response to Newshub and Amelia Wade’s obvious and ham-fisted attempt at a typical and predicted political hit job. As any politically aware reporter would know, any Cabinet subcommittee has a duty and obligation as a part of any government to respond to any UN declaration, in this case ...
Good afternoon. Thank you for the invitation to speak with you today and in your busy lives turning up to this meeting. Forty five years ago, in Howick, often described as racist, and where few Maori lived because it had been a ‘Fencible’ settlement at the time of the Anglo-Maori ...
The Green Party has marked the National Party’s new education policy and given it a fail, especially for its failure to address the underlying drivers of school performance. ...
Political parties that want to negotiate with the Green Party must come to the table with much faster, bolder climate action, co-leaders James Shaw and Marama Davidson emphasised in their State of the Planet speech today. ...
Political parties that want to negotiate with the Green Party after the election must come to the table with much faster, bolder climate action, co-leaders James Shaw and Marama Davidson emphasised today. ...
You will never truly understand, from the pictures you’ve seen in the newspapers or on the six o-clock news, the sheer scale of the devastation wrought by Cyclone Gabrielle. ...
We’re boosting incomes and helping ease cost of living pressures on Kiwis through a range of bread and butter support measures that will see pensioners, students, families, and those on main benefits better off from the start of next month. ...
The error Labour Ministers made by stopping work on a beverage container return scheme will be reversed by the Greens at the earliest opportunity as part of the next Government. ...
“Cabinet needs to do better - and today has shown exactly why we need Green Ministers in cabinet, so we can prioritise action to cut climate pollution and support people to make ends meet,” says Green Party co-leader Marama Davidson. ...
Biggest increase in food prices for over three decades shows the need for an excess profit tax on corporations to help people put food on the table. ...
The Green Party has today launched a submission guide to help Aucklanders give crucial input and prevent potentially disastrous Auckland Council budget proposals. ...
With calls growing for inquiries and action on bank profits, the Greens say the Government has all the information it needs to act now and put a levy on banks. ...
As large parts of Aotearoa recover from two of the worst climate disasters we have ever experienced, it would be a huge mistake for the Government to deprioritise climate action from future transport investments, the Green Party says. ...
Treaty of Waitangi Negotiations Minister Andrew Little has delivered the Crown apology to Ngāti Kahungunu ki Wairarapa Tāmaki nui-a-Rua for its historic breaches of Te Tiriti of Waitangi today. The ceremony was held at Queen Elizabeth Park in Masterton, hosted by Ngāti Kahungunu ki Wairarapa Tāmaki nui-a-Rua, with several hundred ...
Minister of Foreign Affairs Nanaia Mahuta has concluded her visit to China, the first by a New Zealand Foreign Minister since 2018. The Minister met her counterpart, newly appointed State Councilor and Minister of Foreign Affairs, Qin Gang, who also hosted a working dinner. This was the first engagement between the two ...
World-class satellite positioning services that will support much safer search and rescue, boost precision farming, and help safety on construction sites through greater accuracy are a significant step closer today, says Land Information Minister Damien O’Connor. Damien O’Connor marked the start of construction on New Zealand’s first uplink centre for ...
Attorney-General David Parker has announced the appointment of Christopher John Dellabarca of Wellington, Dr Katie Jane Elkin of Wellington, Caroline Mary Hickman of Napier, Ngaroma Tahana of Rotorua, Tania Rose Williams Blyth of Hamilton and Nicola Jan Wills of Wellington as District Court Judges. Chris Dellabarca Mr Dellabarca commenced his ...
A new Government-backed project will help ocean-related businesses in the Nelson Tasman region to accelerate their growth and boost jobs. “The Nelson Tasman region is home to more than 400 blue economy businesses, accounting for more than 30 percent of New Zealand’s economic activity in fishing, aquaculture, and seafood processing,” ...
After three years of COVID-19 disruptions schools are finally settling down and National want to throw that all in the air with major disruption to learning and underinvestment. “National’s education policy lacks the very thing teachers, parents and students need after a tough couple of years, certainty and stability,” Education ...
People aged over 50 with innovative business ideas will now be able to receive support to advance their ideas to the next stage of development, Minister for Seniors Ginny Andersen said today. “Seniors have some great entrepreneurial ideas, and this programme will give them the support to take that next ...
A cross government target for relevant government procurement contracts for goods and services to be awarded to Māori businesses annually will increase to 8%, after the initial 5% target was exceeded. The progressive procurement policy was introduced in 2020 to increase supplier diversity, starting with Māori businesses, for the estimated ...
77,000 fewer children living in low income households on the after-housing-costs primary measure since Labour took office Eight of the nine child poverty measures have seen a statistically significant reduction since 2018. All nine have reduced 28,700 fewer children experiencing material hardship since 2018 Measures taken by the Government during ...
Deputy Prime Minister Kamikamica; distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen. Tēnā koutou katoa, ni sa bula vinaka saka, namaste. Deputy Prime Minister, a very warm welcome to Aotearoa. I trust you have been enjoying your time here and thank you for joining us here today. To all delegates who have travelled to be ...
$2.9 million convertible loan for Scapegrace Distillery to meet growing national and international demand $4.5m underwrite to support Silverlight Studios’ project to establish a film studio in Wanaka Gore’s James Cumming Community Centre and Library to be official opened tomorrow with support of $3m from the COVID-19 Response and Recovery ...
Transport Minister Michael Wood has today launched the first national EV (electric vehicle) charging strategy, Charging Our Future, which includes plans to provide EV charging stations in almost every town in New Zealand. “Our vision is for Aotearoa New Zealand to have world-class EV charging infrastructure that is accessible, affordable, ...
Associate Minister for Social Development and Employment Priyanca Radhakrishnan has today launched the Love Better campaign in a world-leading approach to family harm prevention. Love Better will initially support young people through their experience of break-ups, developing positive and life-long attitudes to dealing with hurt. “Over 1,200 young kiwis told ...
Hon Rino Tirikatene, Minister for Courts, welcomes the Ministry of Justice’s appointment of Dr Garry Clearwater as New Zealand’s first Chief Clinical Advisor working with the Coroners Court. “This appointment is significant for the Coroners Court and New Zealand’s wider coronial system.” Minister Tirikatene said. Through Budget 2022, the Government ...
The Government via the Cyclone Taskforce is working with local government and insurance companies to build a picture of high-risk areas following Cyclone Gabrielle and January floods. “The Taskforce, led by Sir Brian Roche, has been working with insurance companies to undertake an assessment of high-risk areas so we can ...
E te huia kaimanawa, ko Ngāpuhi e whakahari ana i tau aupikinga ki te tihi o te maunga. Ko te Ao Māori hoki e whakanui ana i a koe te whakaihu waka o te reo Māori i roto i te Ao Ture. (To the prized treasure, it is Ngāpuhi who ...
113,400 exits into work in the year to June 2022 Young people are moving off Benefit faster than after the Global Financial Crisis Two reports released today by the Ministry of Social Development show the Government’s investment in the COVID-19 response helped drive record numbers of people off Benefits and ...
The Government’s priority to keep New Zealand at the cutting edge of food production and lift our sustainability credentials continues by backing the next steps of a hi-tech vertical farming venture that uses up to 95 per cent less water, is climate resilient, and pesticide-free. Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor visited ...
E nga mana, e nga iwi, e nga reo, e nga hau e wha, tena koutou, tena koutou, tena koutou kātoa. Warm Pacific greetings to all. It is an honour to host the inaugural Conference of Pacific Education Ministers here in Tāmaki Makaurau. Aotearoa is delighted to be hosting you ...
The new renal unit at Taranaki Base Hospital has been officially opened by the Minister of Health Dr Ayesha Verrall this afternoon. Te Huhi Raupō received around $13 million in government funding as part of Project Maunga Stage 2, the redevelopment of the Taranaki Base Hospital campus. “It’s an honour ...
Defence Minister Andrew Little has marked the arrival of the country’s second P-8A Poseidon aircraft alongside personnel at the Royal New Zealand Air Force’s Base at Ohakea today. “With two of the four P-8A Poseidons now on home soil this marks another significant milestone in the Government’s historic investment in ...
Aotearoa New Zealand will provide further humanitarian support to those seriously affected by last month’s deadly earthquakes in Türkiye and Syria, says Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta. “The 6 February earthquakes have had devastating consequences, with almost 18 million people affected. More than 53,000 people have died and tens of thousands more ...
Migrant communities across New Zealand are represented in the new Migrant Community Reference Group that will help shape immigration policy going forward, Immigration Minister Michael Wood announced today. “Since becoming Minister, a reoccurring message I have heard from migrants is the feeling their voice has often been missing around policy ...
Construction has begun on major works that will deliver significant safety improvements on State Highway 3 from Waitara to Bell Block, Associate Minister of Transport Kiri Allan announced today. “This is an important route for communities, freight and visitors to Taranaki but too many people have lost their lives or ...
Prime Minister Chris Hipkins has today appointed Ginny Andersen as Minister of Police. “Ginny Andersen has a strong and relevant background in this important portfolio,” Chris Hipkins said. “Ginny Andersen worked for the Police as a non-sworn staff member for around 10 years and has more recently been chair of ...
Six further bailey bridge sites confirmed Four additional bridge sites under consideration 91 per cent of damaged state highways reopened Recovery Dashboards for impacted regions released The Government has responded quickly to restore lifeline routes after Cyclone Gabrielle and can today confirm that an additional six bailey bridges will ...
Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta departs for China tomorrow, where she will meet with her counterpart, State Councillor and Foreign Minister Qin Gang, in Beijing. This will be the first visit by a New Zealand Minister to China since 2019, and follows the easing of COVID-19 travel restrictions between New Zealand and China. ...
Education Ministers from across the Pacific will gather in Tāmaki Makaurau this week to share their collective knowledge and strategic vision, for the benefit of ākonga across the region. New Zealand Education Minister Jan Tinetti will host the inaugural Conference of Pacific Education Ministers (CPEM) for three days from today, ...
A vital transport link for communities and local businesses has been restored following Cyclone Gabrielle with the reopening of State Highway 5 (SH5) between Napier and Taupō, Associate Minister of Transport Kiri Allan says. SH5 reopened to all traffic between 7am and 7pm from today, with closure points at SH2 (Kaimata ...
Internal Affairs Minister Barbara Edmonds has thanked generous New Zealanders who took part in the special Lotto draw for communities affected by Cyclone Gabrielle. Held on Saturday night, the draw raised $11.7 million with half of all ticket sales going towards recovery efforts. “In a time of need, New Zealanders ...
The Government has announced funding of $3 million for providers to help people, and whānau access community-based Building Financial Capability services. “Demand for Financial Capability Services is growing as people face cost of living pressures. Those pressures are increasing further in areas affected by flooding and Cyclone Gabrielle,” Minister for ...
Minister of Education, Hon Jan Tinetti, has announced appointments to the Board of Education New Zealand | Manapou ki te Ao. Tracey Bridges is joining the Board as the new Chair and Dr Therese Arseneau will be a new member. Current members Dr Linda Sissons CNZM and Daniel Wilson have ...
Fifteen ākonga Māori from across Aotearoa have been awarded the prestigious Ngarimu VC and 28th (Māori) Battalion Memorial Scholarships and Awards for 2023, Associate Education Minister and Ngarimu Board Chair, Kelvin Davis announced today. The recipients include doctoral, masters’ and undergraduate students. Three vocational training students and five wharekura students, ...
High Court Judge Jillian Maree Mallon has been appointed a Judge of the Court of Appeal, and District Court Judge Andrew John Becroft QSO has been appointed a Judge of the High Court, Attorney‑General David Parker announced today. Justice Mallon graduated from Otago University in 1988 with an LLB (Hons), and with ...
The economy has continued to show its resilience despite today’s GDP figures showing a modest decline in the December quarter, leaving the Government well positioned to help New Zealanders face cost of living pressures in a challenging global environment. “The economy had grown strongly in the two quarters before this ...
Aucklanders now have more ways to get around as Transport Minister Michael Wood opened the direct State Highway 1 (SH1) to State Highway 18 (SH18) underpass today, marking the completion of the 48-kilometre Western Ring Route (WRR). “The Government is upgrading New Zealand’s transport system to make it safer, more ...
This section contains briefings received by incoming ministers following changes to Cabinet in January. Some information may have been withheld in accordance with the Official Information Act 1982. Where information has been withheld that is indicated within the document. ...
Aotearoa New Zealand Foreign Affairs Minister Nanaia Mahuta reaffirmed her commitment to working together with the new Government of Fiji on issues of shared importance, including on the prioritisation of climate change and sustainability, at a meeting today, in Nadi. Fiji and Aotearoa New Zealand’s close relationship is underpinned by the Duavata ...
The Government is delivering a coastal shipping lifeline for businesses, residents and the primary sector in the cyclone-stricken regions of Hawkes Bay and Tairāwhiti, Regional Development Minister Kiri Allan announced today. The Rangitata vessel has been chartered for an emergency coastal shipping route between Gisborne and Napier, with potential for ...
The Government will progress to the next stage of the NZ Battery Project, looking at the viability of pumped hydro as well as an alternative, multi-technology approach as part of the Government’s long term-plan to build a resilient, affordable, secure and decarbonised energy system in New Zealand, Energy and Resources ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne Dean Lewins/AAP With 36% of enrolled voters counted in today’s New South Wales state election, the Poll Bludger’s results currently ...
A former entertainment mecca in the middle of Auckland is up for grabs. The problem? It’s been run into the ground. Have you got spare cash sitting around? Do you want to buy something grand, something special? How does a nine-storey complex covering 3,486 square metres in the middle of ...
Posey Parker appeared in Auckland today for a brief few moments, but it was clear that she was going to have a hard time being heard above thousands of people exercising their own right to free speech The streets of Auckland’s city centre were thick today with the noise of tubas, ...
Green Party co-leader Marama Davidson was knocked to the ground by a motorcyclist who appeared to fail to stop at a pedestrian crossing after today's counter-protest against Posie Parker. ...
Green Party co-leader Marama Davidson was struck by a passing motorcycle this morning as she protested Kellie-Jay Keen-Minshull’s rally event at Albert Park. Davidson was standing on Princes St holding a sign reading “trans solidarity” when a band of motorcyclists, there in support of Brian and Hannah Tamaki’s Vision NZ, ...
By Krishneel Nair in Suva“The most important thing from my perspective is a strategic partnership — a partnership where the media should not be seen as the enemy or a nuisance.” This was the view of the Communications Fiji Ltd news director and Fijian Media Association executive Vijay Narayan ...
The noise began long before Kellie-Jay Keen-Minshull (AKA Posie Parker) arrived. Despite an 11am scheduled start time to her planned rally to “speak for women”, the Albert Park rotunda was surrounded by 10.30. But the crowd was not there to see or hear her. A truck parked at the entrance ...
Chris Schulz on the nearly three-hours of joy Keanu Reeves’ latest non-stop orgy of violence brings. This is an excerpt from our pop culture newsletter Rec Room. Sign up to have it delivered to your inbox every Friday here. Keanu Reeves has annihilated the place. In what appears to be ...
Teacher unions have criticised National's curriculum plan, but the party was targeting concerned parents and his political opponent, Prime Minister Chris Hipkins. ...
Don’t underestimate the significance of TVNZ’s new documentary series about Kai Kara-France, a fighter acclaimed on the world stage but still criminally underrated at home, writes Don Rowe. In 2015, when I first profiled Kai Kara-France for the now-defunct Mana magazine, he told me he’d never wanted to sign with ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Adrian Beaumont, Election Analyst (Psephologist) at The Conversation; and Honorary Associate, School of Mathematics and Statistics, The University of Melbourne Justin Lloyd/AAP The New South Wales state election is today. Polls close at 6pm AEDT. Votes cast on election day ...
If current trends continue, by 2053 half of retirement-age New Zealanders will be renters. Right now, options for over-65s who don’t own their own home are limited.This story was first published on Stuff. What’s life like when you reach retirement age, but don’t own a home of your own? Most ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Charles Feigin, Postdoctoral Fellow in Genomics and Evolution, The University of Melbourne Anom Harya/ShutterstockShoot for the moon. Even if you miss, you’ll land on the next tree. Many groups of mammals seem to have taken this evolutionary advice to ...
When a big corporate is alarmed about possible law changes, it asks its well-connected lobbyist to intervene. A text message exchange between a Cabinet Minister and his lobbyist "mate" follows. ...
The popularity of stories about unhappy rich people says more about our need to view them that way than it does about how they experience their livesOpinion:Succession is returning to Aotearoa’s television screens. It joins other portrayals of the emotional traumas that come from having far, far too ...
The popularity of stories about unhappy rich people says more about our need to view them that way than it does about how they experience their livesOpinion:Succession is returning to Aotearoa’s television screens. It joins other portrayals of the emotional traumas that come from having far, far too ...
This is The Detail's Long Read - one in-depth story read by us every weekend This week, it's What's Up With ADHD?, written by Mirjam Guesgen and published in North & South's April 2023 issue. You can find the full article, with illustrations by Rachel Salazar, in this month’s issue of North & South. Once a condition ...
This is The Detail's Long Read - one in-depth story read by us every weekend This week, it's What's Up With ADHD?, written by Mirjam Guesgen and published in North & South's April 2023 issue. You can find the full article, with illustrations by Rachel Salazar, in this month’s issue of North & South. Once a condition ...
"He imagines the rattling windows of his bach": a sad seaside saga by Majella Cullinane Màiri watches him as he walks down the hill next to her house. The man appears gradually – first his head covered in a tweed cap and earphones, then the unkempt hair and beard, ...
"He imagines the rattling windows of his bach": a sad seaside saga by Majella Cullinane Màiri watches him as he walks down the hill next to her house. The man appears gradually – first his head covered in a tweed cap and earphones, then the unkempt hair and beard, ...
Every weekday, The Detail makes sense of the big news stories. This week, we looked at how our top authors make a living writing books, the sky-high fares coming from independent taxi drivers, how the people of Muriwai are putting their lives back together post-Cyclone Gabrielle, why a Levin chocolate maker is ...
Every weekday, The Detail makes sense of the big news stories. This week, we looked at how our top authors make a living writing books, the sky-high fares coming from independent taxi drivers, how the people of Muriwai are putting their lives back together post-Cyclone Gabrielle, why a Levin chocolate maker is ...
Not content with transforming KiwiSaver, Simplicity is now planning to out-build Kāinga Ora. Duncan Greive meets a pair of of unlikely revolutionaries trying to fix housing – a task which seems impossible, even for the state itself.In September of 2020, a builder named Shane Brealey sat down and typed ...
The Auckland Writers Festival has just launched its 23rd programme, the first since Covid to include its signature line-up of visiting international writers. With 160 events to choose from, here’s books editor Claire Mabey’s top 10 to help you navigate your way through the lit fest universe.Straight Up: Ruby ...
Taking her her young family around the world as she rows is a key factor in Emma Twigg's decision to defend her Olympic single sculls title at next year's Paris Olympics. And, Andy Hay writes, the next Emma Twigg could be waiting in the wings at the Maadi Cup next week. ...
The Fijian Drua will need to start and finish well, while Moana Pasifika’s coach wants to see a full 80-minute performance this weekend as the two regional teams continue their Super Rugby Pacific campaigns. The Drua tackle the Highlanders in Dunedin today and Pasifika face the Hurricanes at Mt Smart ...
By Todagia Kelola in Port Moresby A number of small contractors in Papua New Guinea are still waiting for positive feedback for money owed to them by government agencies after 12 years. A 2015 Post-Courier front page picture showed a man, David Goli, who chained himself at the then headquarters ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Beryl Exley, Professor, Griffith Institute for Educational Research, Griffith University, Griffith University Shutterstock Last August, the federal government set up an expert panel to look at the continuous improvement agenda in teacher education in Australia. The panel, led by ...
The New Zealand First leader took to the altar of an East Auckland church today to set out his 2023 election agenda. It was, as Stewart Sowman-Lund found out, pretty much what you’d expect. Winston Peters rolled into Howick today with a state of the nation speech that, he claimed ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jon Wardle, Professor of Public Health, Southern Cross University Shutterstock Earlier this week, Australian retail giant Woolworths announced a move into health-care delivery via development of its subsidiary HealthyLife’s online portal. Through this portal, Australians can book a same-day ...
New Zealand First leader Winston Peters - eyeing a political comeback - has used a scene-setting speech in Auckland warning against a "conceited, conniving, cultural cabal". ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By William Peterson, Adjunct Associate Professor, Auckland University of Technology The Sheep Song.Tim Standing/Daylight Breaks/Adelaide Festival Few Adelaideans remember a time before the Adelaide Festival. Formed in 1960 as a civic enterprise and financed against loss by prominent Adelaide businessmen, the ...
Analysis - The Greens lay down a challenge as the minor parties approach an election in which both National and Labour are going to need coalition partners to form a government, writes Peter Wilson. ...
By Arieta Vakasukawaqa in Suva Communications Fiji Ltd (CFL) chair William Parkinson has called for a repeal of Fiji’s Media Industry Development Act 2010 and more discussion on the proposed Media Ownership and Registration Bill 2023. He said this during a public consultation on the review of MIDA Act 2010 ...
High Court Justice David Gendall regretfully allows anti-trans activist to enter New Zealand, but warns the expression of her views may be harmful to our vulnerable rainbow community. Jonathan Milne does his best to be civil.Opinion: Kellie-Jay Keen-Minshull calls herself Posie Parker. And that's what I'm going to call her. Because she is ...
It’s about time somebody made a wacky TV show about how bonkers spelling is. Enter comedian Guy Montgomery and his Guy Mont Spelling Bee. The three years since Covid-19 began have been pretty rocky, but one of the best things to come out of the chaos was Guy Montgomery’s Guy ...
Te Rōpū Mātai Hinengaro o Aotearoa, The New Zealand Psychological Society (NZPsS) stands beside LGBTQIA+ and Takatāpui communities rallying against anti-trans rhetoric in light of the impending visit of Kellie-Jay Keen-Minshull (Posie Parker). We are ...
Earlier this month, everybody’s favourite Monster of the Week series Married at First Sight Australia toppled 1News to become the highest rating television show for New Zealand viewers aged 25-54. The controversial reality series garnered an average audience of 137,000, or 6.7% audience share from March 5 until March 11. ...
It’s the most wonderful time of the year for feijoa lovers – here’s how to make the most of it.Fragrant and sweet, with a delicate jelly centre surrounded by gritty, tangy flesh, all encased in a green sour skin. My parents’ feijoa tree has just dropped its first fruit, ...
A new poem by poet and novelist Maggie Rainey-Smith. Bang a Drum We’ve hit Gentle Annie passed the pub at Okaramio and on the left, at Wakapuaka there’s Sunnybank where parents left their children An oddly named orphanage manned (ha) by Nuns childless women in black habits, scapula, cowls and ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Cathy Buntting, Director, Wilf Malcolm Institute of Educational Research, University of Waikato Getty Images Less than a fortnight after teachers staged a national strike, education was back in the headlines with the National Party’s release of its curriculum policy – ...
The only published and available best-selling indie book chart in New Zealand is the top 10 sales list recorded every week at Unity Books’ stores in High St, Auckland, and Willis St, Wellington.AUCKLAND1 Birnam Wood by Eleanor Catton (Te Herenga Waka University Press, $38)Number one in both ...
The Free Speech Union welcomes the decision of the High Court to reject the application to overrule the decision of the Minister of Immigration to allow Kellie-Jay entry into New Zealand. This was the only right result for a nation that ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Fan Yang, Research Associate at RMIT and Alfred Deakin Institute, Deakin University Baidu’s ERNIE Bot was launched to considerable disappointment.Ng Han Guan / AP On March 16, Baidu unveiled China’s latest rival to OpenAI’s ChatGPT – ERNIE Bot (short for “Enhanced ...
By Meri Radinibaravi in Suva Former attorney-general Aiyaz Sayed-Khaiyum has told The Fiji Times to ask the Republic of Fiji Military Forces about claims that his bodyguards were allowed to take guns on to Fiji Link flights without proper authorisation. “I understand that there’s some enquiries going on regarding that ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sasha Grishin, Adjunct Professor of Art History, Australian National University Installation view of Troy Emery’s work Mountain climber 2022 on display as part of the Melbourne Now exhibition at The Ian Potter Centre: NGV Australia, Melbourne from 24 March – 20 August ...
National’s education policy reinforces an old-fashioned and hierarchical curriculum that does lasting harm to many students, writes educational specialist Dr Sarah Aiono. Announcing the National Party’s new education policy this week, leader Christopher Luxon cited a recent NCEA pilot in which two-thirds of students were unable to meet the minimum ...
Attempts by rainbow groups to stop an anti-trans campaigner entering the country have failed. The High Court has dismissed a judicial review application from Gender Minorities Aotearoa, InsideOUT Kōara and Auckland Pride, aimed at the immigration minister for allowing Kellie-Jay Keen-Minshull into New Zealand. As part of the application, the ...
The High Court is this morning considering an interim order that would prevent an anti-trans campaigner from making it into New Zealand. Kellie-Jay Keen-Minshull is expected to arrive on our shores today ahead of two planned rallies in Auckland and Wellington over the weekend. After immigration officials deemed her safe ...
I was disappointed to see yesterday afternoon’s announcement that Auckland has chosen to leave Local Government NZ (LGNZ). Hamilton’s membership of LGNZ is one of collaboration and sharing. Being a member gives us important views from other ...
It’s the most talked about local opera production in years – but does it live up to the chatter?The lowdownYou’ve probably heard of the “unruly tourists”, the British family who created a media firestorm as they toured around the country leaving trash and turmoil in their wake. You’ve ...
As reported by Newsroom’s Marc Daalder this morning, correspondence released under the Official Information Act shows advice about puberty blockers was removed from the Ministry of Health website “in the hopes it creates fewer queries” from anti-trans campaigners. The line that was removed from the site said puberty blockers “are ...
Analysis by Dr Bryce Edwards. Political Roundup: NZ needs to distance itself from Australia’s anti-China nuclear submarines The New Zealand Government has been silent about Australia’s decision to commit up to $400bn acquiring nuclear submarines, even though this is a significant threat to peace and stability in the Asia Pacific. The ...
Secondary teachers will strike again next week after an agreement on improved pay and working conditions was not reached. The strike will take place on Wednesday, less than two weeks after thousands of educators took to the streets across the country. “PPTA Te Wehengarua members have shown they are serious ...
Te Kāhui Tika Tangata Human Rights Commission is encouraging organisations and individuals to share their views on human rights in Aotearoa New Zealand for the government’s upcoming report to the United Nations. The report informs a process ...
Secondary and area school teachers around the country have voted overwhelmingly in favour of more industrial action, including a one day national strike next Wednesday, in support of their collective agreement negotiations. “PPTA Te Wehengarua members ...
At a time when our need for collective action is stronger than ever, Auckland Council has opted out to save each of its residents just 25c a year, writes former Dunedin mayor Aaron Hawkins.I grew up in rural Southland, in the shadows of the Cut The Cable movement. In ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Julie Jakoboski, Oceanographic Data Scientist, Moana Project’s Te Tiro Moana Team Lead, MetService — Te Ratonga Tirorangi Moana project, CC BY-ND The world’s oceans are buffering us from the worst climate impacts by taking up more than 90% of the ...
Morning Report - RNZ and Newsroom's political editors consider National's education pitch, and the political responses to lobbying revelations and Posie Parker. ...
The Free Speech Union will be an intervener this morning as the High Court considers whether Immigration New Zealand's decision to allow Posie Parker (Kellie-Jay Keen-Minshull) entry into New Zealand was legal, says Jonathan Ayling, Chief Executive of the Free ...
For over a decade, Manurewa Cosmopolitan Club has come under fire for denying entry to people wearing religious headwear. Despite the Human Rights Commission getting involved, it seems the rule remains unchanged.One of the definitions given by the Oxford dictionary for the word cosmopolitan is: “including people from many ...
Chris Hipkins’ dump of Ardern-era policy has potentially jeopardised a major part of the government’s climate change response. In this week’s episode of When the Facts Change, Bernard Hickey talks to climate policy expert Christina Hood from Climate Compass to find out why this month’s Emissions Trading Scheme auction failed and ...
The head of Local Government NZ, the group representing councils across the country, has hit back at claims made by Auckland mayor Wayne Brown. It was his casting vote that saw Auckland Council leave the representative group yesterday evening, with councillors divided on whether or not it was the right ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Al-Tamini Tapu, Geoscientist, The University of Queensland Warrumbungle national park.colinslack/Shutterstock Our new study published in Nature Geoscience on an ancient chain of Australian volcanoes is helping to change our understanding of “hotspot” volcanism. You may be surprised to learn eastern ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Matthew Sussex, Fellow, Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, Australian National University There’s been a lot of recent shouting about Australia’s national security policy. It began with the Nine newspapers’ “Red Alert” extravaganza, spread over multiple articles. Featuring a graphic of warplanes ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rachel Goldlust, Adjunct Research Fellow, School of Archaeology and History, La Trobe University Shutterstock Earlier this month, regulators flagged electricity price rises in Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia. Like many people, you’re probably wondering how you can ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Anthony Veal, Adjunct Professor, Business School, University of Technology Sydney Shutterstock A little more than a century ago, most people in industrialised countries worked 60 hours a week – six ten-hour days. A 40-hour work week of five eight-hour days ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Xavier Ho, Lecturer in Interaction Design, Monash University Sony Entertainment Mainstream games are embracing openly queer characters – and so are many of their players and fans. The Last of Us, the prestige HBO adaptation of the critically lauded ...
The capital’s transport overhaul will have spent $130 million on consultant fees by the end of next year, Stuff reports. Let’s Get Wellington Moving (LGWM) expects to spend $60 million on outside experts in the coming year, after already spending $38.5m in the past three years and $35m this year. Greater ...
Chris Hipkins’ dump of Ardern-era policy has potentially jeopardised a major part of the government’s climate change response. Bernard Hickey talks to climate policy expert Christina Hood from Climate Compass to find out why this month’s Emissions Trading Scheme auction failed and how she feels cabinet have destroyed confidence in ...
Christopher Luxon says the policy is what’s needed to address serious issues with reading, writing and maths in primary schools. Others aren’t so sure, writes Catherine McGregor in this excerpt from The Bulletin, The Spinoff’s morning news round-up. To receive The Bulletin in full each weekday, sign up here.Back ...
Although Auckland Council’s big cleanup following this year’s extreme weather events continues, “things are getting more difficult at this point”. Five weeks after Cyclone Gabrielle, some 7,000 Aucklanders remain impacted by the aftermath of the floods, slips and heavy winds that battered the region in January and February. Auckland Council’s ...
A traffic bypass stole 20,000 potential daily visitors from its main streets and local businesses. Three years on, how are the Waikato town’s 9,000 residents coping?The tourism centre is closed – “permanently”, says the sign. The cafe next door, once called River Haven, now with two missing letters making ...
Why on earth would Jacinda go to the polls now where there is a reasonable prospect of losing? It would be dumbest move since the drunk Pig did it in 1984.
Drunk Pig? What are you talking about?
''Why on earth would Jacinda go to the polls now where there is a reasonable prospect of losing?''
I was about to answer that then decided it would be a wasted effort.
The death of a thousand cuts is starting to take effect
Rather – wishful thinking by the Natz.
They know the longer Luxon is in the media limelight, the more his incompetence and religious fundamentalism will be exposed.
You didn't see many comments about leadership changes a year or so ago.
It now feels like everyday theres a story about crime or housing, wasn't happening a year or so ago.
'They know the longer Luxon is in the media limelight, the more his incompetence and religious fundamentalism will be exposed.'
Remember when Key was first made National leader, then it was hes just a flash money man, he'll be exposed
Didn't work out so well for Labour then
Same with Ardern, when she was first made Labour leader it was shes inexperienced, shes got a nice smile and nothing else, she'll be exposed
Didn't work out so well for National then
Well said PR.
The health system is about to collapse. It's so bad senior doctors are leaking information to media. In my area seeing the doctor you have enrolled with will take days, even weeks.
Crime? Out of control. Station employee stabbed today.
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2022/06/auckland-transport-staffer-rushed-to-hospital-after-being-stabbed-on-sylvia-park-train-station-platform.html
Maori – Out of control re racist legislation. Where's ya proof? Were do I start? Tonight on 3 News it was said the home bowel screening programme will be brought down to start at 50 years old because of the increase in bowel cancer. The catch? It's not for you whitey…but only for Maori and Polynesians. Bloody disgusting.
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2022/06/five-year-wait-for-nationwide-cancer-screening-has-cost-kiwis-their-lives-bowel-cancer-nz.html
Education? Completely stuffed.
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2022/06/school-principal-warns-of-horrendous-consequences-for-new-zealand-amid-truancy-crisis.html
I won't rant on. Is Mickey right? At the moment probably. But he should be aware NZ is a powder keg of issues that could blow our once great nation apart at any moment. Unless National shoot themselves in the foot multiple times, how can things improve for Labour leading up to the election? That's when the call may go out for an early election.
If I was advising Jacinda, I would be briefing her on various exit strategies.
"Tonight on 3 News it was said the home bowel screening programme will be brought down to start at 50 years old because of the increase in bowel cancer. The catch? It's not for you whitey…but only for Maori and Polynesians."
Makes sense to me because (my bold) finding it early by screening means less likely to have spread so more likely curable
"Māori and Pacific patients <75 had worse all-cause and cancer-specific survival than New Zealand European. Historically, Māori have a lower incidence of CRC compared to New Zealand European,22–24 but this incidence has been rising.5 Our data are consistent with poorer health outcomes often observed in Māori and Pacific cancer patients in New Zealand6,25–28 and is in line with reported survival rates of indigenous and ethnic minority populations in other countries.23,29–32 Of interest was the finding that in the over 75 year age group, while Pacific patients had poorer survival (OR 1.35) compared with New Zealand European, outcomes for Māori were similar (OR 1.06). Factors contributing to the ethnic disparities seen in New Zealand cancer care are well documented; Māori experience more inequalities/barriers when accessing health services than non-Māori,27,28 experience a lower level of care from those services26 and do not get the same access to treatment.33 Māori and Pacific patients are also more likely to present with metastatic disease,6,28,34,35 experience delays to diagnosis6 and present to the emergency department compared to non-Māori /non-Pacific patients.6 Disease biology and culture (eg, diet, help-seeking behaviour),27 deprivation level,6 and higher levels of comorbidity for Māori and Pacific patients6,28,31,33,36 are also factors that contribute to these disparities."
https://journal.nzma.org.nz/journal-articles/the-characteristics-and-outcomes-of-patients-with-colorectal-cancer-in-new-zealand-analysed-by-cancer-network#:~:text=Patient%20and%20tumour%20characteristics%20by,and%20only%205.4%25%20were%20Māori.
Look, I'm not going to argue the toss with you. We both have different opinions on this issue. Your comment makes complete sense from the medical treatment perspective.
I see it as a racist two tier system that cannot be sustained without a deadly backlash at some stage because it will be a death sentence for some European. The uptake of Maori doing the home screening is a moot point. From my experience it's roughly a 50/50 split of Maori participating in the programme.
''Māori experience more inequalities/barriers when accessing health services than non-Māori''
I also don't agree with that. Talkback has asked Maori representatives time and again to outline examples of inequalities/barriers in our health systems. None could. That's because there are few. There are now way more racist doctors and nurses around. The reason? They have had a gutsful of abuse and non compliance of Maori to follow treatment advice.
I won’t ask you to link to those alleged talk-back shows because you simply refuse to front up and support your assertions because facts don’t matter to you.
A simple Google search, however, gives plenty of info, which you’ll probably ignore too, as usual, because of weak methods, weak data, and mostly because it doesn’t fit with your narrative and doesn’t confirm your bias.
Table 3. Barriers to health experienced by Māori patients and their whānau.
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1753-6405.12971
Experiences of Māori of Aotearoa New Zealand's public health system: a systematic review of two decades of published qualitative research
''I won’t ask you to link to those alleged talk-back shows because you simply refuse to front up and support your assertions because facts don’t matter to you.''
It's a fluid medium and I usually catch the tail end of interviews. I have now taken to having a pad near the radio so I can take some notes. The first result is the interview with Sir Lockwood Smith on the HWEN thread. ( incidentally, probably the best interview on this topic, on this blog)
Now, do you know why those spokespeople on talkback couldn't give answers to simple questions? It's because they are used to talking and writing in lingo like this from your link.
''Methods: A systematic search using PRISMA protocols and reflexive typology organised around the categories of Māori, public healthcare and qualitative research identified 14 papers that covered all three categories. We undertook a qualitative metasynthesis on these papers using a critical community psychology approach.''
''Correspondingly, Māori families accessing hospital care for a child encounter systemic barriers.13 Biomedical and reductionist models that focus on presenting symptoms dominate health research approaches,14, 15 and the experiences of marginalised groups are subsumed into dominant individualistic, colonial narratives.15 In short, Māori healthcare needs are not being met.''
Sounds fantastic. Very important. Vey concise and well researched.
But when taken off this reservation of puffery and asked a simple question demanding an objective answer grounded in reality…they flounder.
How do I reach my conclusions. Simple, I ask people I know who work in the health system. Most admit they have little time for Maori. And it shows. When I have had appointments at hospital clinics, or I have accompanied family members, at least 50% of doctors and nurses treat me/us disrespectfully. I have to earn their respect( that annoys me). But here's the thing, once I/we have shown the doctors we have done what they ask…they change and fall over backwards for us. Never have a problem with them again. Eg:
I took an old aunt for an out patients appointment. The doctor was at his desk holding his chin in one hand( body language sign for negative thoughts) He tersely introduced himself and said '' I don't suppose you brought your medications with you?'' I said ''Yes, we have them. We also have her discharge papers from her last stay in hospital and a GPs letter.''
Lol.. he looked up in surprise and said good… good.. very good. He now looks after aunt like his own mother. Hell, the staff have to make her a cuppa after her appointment. Why the change? Because he had some Maoris who actually met him half way.
Yes, you are correct. I reject most of your korero.
What is "disgusting" are ignorant fools braying their flatulent reckons about complex population health programmes based on talkback and anecdata.
The case for reduced screening ages for equity is not at all in doubt. Should have been done from the get-go, as experts advised. I worked alongside many of them at the time.
You are just embarrassing yourself.
'''What is "disgusting" are ignorant fools braying their flatulent reckons about complex population health programmes based on talkback and anecdata.''
What would you know?
'The case for reduced screening ages for equity is not at all in doubt.''
Can you read? I have written this to Grafton Gully.
''Look, I'm not going to argue the toss with you. We both have different opinions on this issue. Your comment makes complete sense from the medical treatment perspective.''
What about Pakeha, Sacha?
They'll just have to try pot luck, eh? Let em die in the gutter. They can afford a decent funeral. You make me puke.
By the way, I wonder who on average would be taking better care of their health – 50 year old Pakeha, or 50 year old Maori.
You have no trouble consigning fellow Nzers to a possible death sentence because of your racism.
''You are just embarrassing yourself.''
I don't mind embarrassing myself if it means I'm not a racist like you.
Oh, here's a gift from talkback radio. Who knows it could work for bowel cancer?
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/05/health/rectal-cancer-checkpoint-inhibitor.html
One of the he worst forms of racism is when one resists and rejects any attempts at dealing with racism with the absurd argument that this would amount to reverse-racism. In effect, these are racism apologists and they continue to propagate racism.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reverse_racism
If you keep up these unhinged absurd attacks on others who call out your ignorance you will receive a ban.
''One of the he worst forms of racism is when one resists and rejects any attempts at dealing with racism with the absurd argument that this would amount to reverse-racism.''
But that is predicated on our health system being racist towards Maori. I have told you my experiences GENERALLY show otherwise if you meet doctors half way. You have only offered studies and other peoples opinions.
And if all these Maori don't like our general health system, why aren't they enrolling themselves at Hauora Maori health services? Something doesn't gel. Sure they may still have to use public health services, but most general care would be done in a holistic Maori way.
''In effect, these are racism apologists and they continue to propagate racism.''
The problem here is a definition of this situation. You are focused on supposed racism around medical treatment Maori receive. But Maori get lush funding across a variety of sectors, including health.
I'm taking a global approach. You cannot have this two tier system and expect our nation not to divide and a backlash to ensue. It just isn't possible.
Have you not learnt from South Africa, Rhodesia, tribalism in Africa etc. These are paths we are going down and you seem quite happy with that.
''If you keep up these unhinged absurd attacks on others who call out your ignorance you will receive a ban.''
How can it be an unhinged attack when we are throwing fellow NZers under the bus? That's a fact. I point this out and you want to ban me.
You missed the point again. I offered you a Table with barriers, which is what you asked for, and then you reject it because it doesn’t align with your own limited experience and you start bleating again about what happened when your aunty hurt her toe.
So, I gave you one paper that included 18 years of research in this area based on numerous accounts and individual experiences and you retort with “supposed racism”!? You’re in denial about anything that you cannot see in your yard and supermarket. You’re as blind as a bat, Blade. And you think you know best because only your account matters or matters most.
Whether or not Māori “get”, whatever that means, lush funding is not the point. The point is whether any funding, targeted or not, reaches them and has appositive impact on outcomes for them. The overwhelming evidence so far tells us this is not happening. This is the difference between inequality and inequity.
You can take whatever approach you like because it will be to no avail. There’s already a 2-tier system in NZ, which is called health inequities, so you don’t have to go look afar and can stay close to home.
The unhinged attack was on another commenter, which is bannable offence here. But you already know that.
''Whether or not Māori “get”, whatever that means.''
How about ''receive''?
''The point is whether any funding, targeted or not, reaches them and has appositive impact on outcomes for them. The overwhelming evidence so far tells us this is not happening. This is the difference between inequality and inequity.''
Do you realise what you are saying? You are saying millions is going down the gurgler, some to Maori health providers, with little impact on Maori health outcomes.
'''This is the difference between inequality and inequity.''
I'm sorry. To my way of thinking this is incompetence and poor accounting. Heads should roll.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300591643/budget-2022-mori-health-receives-299m-from-multibillion-health-spend
''You can take whatever approach you like because it will be to no avail. There’s already a 2-tier system in NZ, which is called health inequities, so you don’t have to go look afar and can stay close to home.''
OK, here's the bottom line for you in my opinion. You won't hear this from anyone else on this blog:
" This coming election will be about race. And National will win barring a disaster that allows Jacinda to shine. But it will be just the beginning because National won't get on top of crime. And they won't have the balls to force change that makes Maori more accountable for individual health outcomes. The country will part along race lines even though to an outsider things will look normal. Mixed partnership relationships will go through hell, and schools will become off limits for many. Personal safety will be at risk every time you leave your property. That's the way I see it if you want to keep doing down this path of inequality and inequity.
In fact the split is starting already in urban areas.
No idea, because I don’t know whom you’re talking about and as far as I know you’ve made it all up in your head – without some back-up evidence we cannot listen & check for ourselves. You fail at this time and time again. I also note that simple questions are often meaningless because they’re often based in ignorance & bias. A good interviewer guides the interviewee(s) to build, explain, and argue their case rather than going for lazy cheap point-scoring inter-rupting talking-over gotcha’s to confirm the bias of their listener-base and bosst their show's ratings (and their ego, of course).
Nope, you flounder, in the technical stuff, which you then use as an excuse to reject and ignore the findings even though they came from well-researched studies over 18 years including 372 participants. WTF is an 'objective answer' anyway?
If you had opened your mind and taken a little of your time to read the linked paper you would have seen that your own anecdotal experience might fit in well with that of others, for example:
I note that you appear to have very low levels of respect for others whom you dislike and prone to using your fists.
Table 3 of the linked paper was easy enough to take in without all the techno lingo, but you found an excuse to even ignore that even though you asked for it!?
There are none so blind as those who will not see. Your conclusions are flawed and weak, your views are therefore flawed and distorted (aka biased) and it shows in almost every comment you make – debating with you is an exercise in utter futility, as others have already found out and you keep confirming fo us time and time again.
I think we can't communicate because you have to run everything through your ideological filter, and then you accuse me of basically the same thing. Who knows, we may both have a point.
I have stated I will now take notes re talkback. Anything I repeat from talkback will now be time stamped if possible.
''I note that you appear to have very low levels of respect for others whom you dislike and prone to using your fists.''
Crikey, have you seen some of the replies to me on this blog lately? I can post a few if you like. Prone to using my fists? That's not true. Where do you get that perception from?
So , I have sat at my key board thinking how I could sum my views up in as few words as possible to save the tit for tat:
''Maori are the authors of most negative experiences they encounter in our health system. Their ignorance, in many cases, reinforces the behaviour of already bigoted health professionals. Other fair minded health professionals are driven towards racist attitudes by the abuse they receive from Maori. That leads to most Maori copping negative outcomes when engaging with our health system.''
Interesting thesis. What would my ‘ideology’ be, in this context? Perhaps fact-based reasoning leads to better debating outcomes and is more likely to produce a discernible truth or interpretation of reality that is mutually agreeable?
You refuse to back up your assertions and claims of fact, your explanations leave much to the imagination and a lot to be desired, and you write off any counter evidence and counter-arguments when they don’t feel right to you. In other words, yours is the ‘ideology’ of a troll.
Your idiosyncratic disrespect is ubiquitous and omnipresent. You only seem to have respect for talk-back and Raptor Squad. And you brag about knocking out others.
Your views are rigid and set in stone. You have not taken in one thing from a simple Table about Barriers to health experienced by Māori patients and their whanau and keep reverting back to your own narrow-minded views and self-limited anecdotal experience.
You almost tick all the stereotypical boxes of a RWNJ listening to shock-jocks on talk-back. Some would argue that we should listen to and engage with people such as you. I’d say that this appears to be an utter waste of time and you’re just a huge distraction here and a megaphone for RWNJ noise & nuisance.
What would my ‘ideology’ be, in this context?
There is no context. You are a Leftie and everything goes through the same filter. Unless I have you pegged wrong and you are to the Right of politics but have a liberal social justice view?
Perhaps fact-based reasoning leads to better debating outcomes and is more likely to produce a discernible truth or interpretation of reality that is mutually agreeable?
Debating facts is one thing. Understanding trends is another. Notice as a general rule how I'm half a step ahead of what will break in the news, or on this blog, as a item of interest? For example at the time of you banning me for a month
You’re throwing around lazy labels and bumper stickers to see what might stick. No substance whatsoever, just another excuse for you to continue your inane and mostly unsupported comments here. My ‘ideology’ or ‘filter’ have got nothing to with your comments.
A trend based on what? On feels from talk-back? You understand very little of what you read here, elsewhere, or what you hear on talk-back and you cannot construct a decent argument. You lack understanding and your spoiler is feels and ‘psychic imprints’ laced with ‘paramagnetism’.
You’re so far behind that you think you’re ahead and the rest of us are catching up with you. Please bail out gracefully.
Some dolts just will not listen. I take it this one has a history?
He’s certainly making history here, in a Trumpian sense.
He certainly does.
This reply should not have been posted.
*Blade…11 June 2022 at 7:01 pm
What would my ‘ideology’ be, in this context?
You need to have a lie down, son.
When isn't the health system under pressure in winter, and in the first winter of a one in one hundred year pandemic? If rich prick boomers would stop dodging buying rentals and dodging tax for five seconds, the health system might have a fighting chance.
Crime seems acute right now but we have assimilated a lot of people on the edges of society (from Australia) in the last two years. It's what responsible countries do.
Bowel cancer screening targeted to those at high risk? Well, blow me down, that seems sensible to me considering the limited resources we have.
Using attendance stats right now, again in the middle of a one in one hundred year pandemic, is not helpful. Everyone is asked to stay at home if symptoms are present. Also, families are cautious about bringing Covid into vulnerable, multigenerational households. This is sensible right now but our behaviour will adjust as we slowly return to what was considered normal.
You are catastrophising, for political purposes.
''If rich prick boomers would stop dodging buying rentals and dodging tax for five seconds, the health system might have a fighting chance.''
We call that the nutty Left. These types of weird nebulous synapse connections in SOME lefties has always intrigued me.
That would be like the raving right then, who say things like "removing the top rate of tax doesn't help the rich".
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/dramatic-footage-of-15-person-karangahape-rd-brawl-in-auckland-released-by-police/YBHHZHGYV5KYNHTQENWNFGVIF4/
6 yrs ago
I its pretty much same old same old, just the results of years of oppression and unfortunately it will take a lot more years to reverse and I believe with Luxon at the helm it never will.
I believe your a prison officer, in a position better than most too see the situation and my question to you is how many of your clients would be there if they had had a dad to get them plum job at unilever : ( 3rd biggest plastic polluter i read yesterday)
" They know the longer Luxon is in the media limelight, the more his incompetence and religious fundamentalism will be exposed "
Yeah that has been proven to not be a vote loser after all Key's bullshit and dubious claims they still voted for him and the other deplorables in 2008 , 2011 and 2014.
There seems to be this belief that New Zealand voters will see through a dismal opposition Nasty Natz leader……they don't ! the worse they are the more votes they get.
You can always rely on the hobbits to vote to vote for their own demise ..present leadership accepted of course.
Can't see any reason for Labour to call a snap election.
NZ voters, traditionally, don't like them; incumbent governments don't do well.
And, on current polling, it would very much be a toss up, if the left won (and would be a coalition Labour/Green possibly TPM, rather than the outright majority they currently have).
They'd also effectively junk all of the legislation they have in train (even if they won, it would be a politically new ballgame over 'government' legislation).
It would also be bitterly opposed by the majority of the Labour list MPs – at high risk of losing seats.
Really, not a valid choice. What could Labour possibly gain?
And, who would think that Ardern would be so politically naive?
Agreed Bella…itsnotgonnahappen.
" NZ voters, traditionally, don't like them; incumbent governments don't do well "
Helen just did fine in the winter election of July 27 2002 , she maintained her majority, the first since Muldoon's scnapps election in 1984 after getting a canning in the right wing media for asking the G.G for a dissolution when the Alliance collapsed and was going to have problems passing legislation in the house.
Now LINO would be hard pressed to gain a majority but MMP can deliver some unusual results.
Have a look at the opinion polls, directly after the snap election was announced. Labour went from a positive polling result (against an unprecedentedly weak right wing) of over 50%, to an election night result of just over 40%.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2002_New_Zealand_general_election#Graphical_summary
A lot of that support went to the centrist United (Peter Dunne) party & to Peter’s NZ First (see Swordfish’s excellent analysis, below)
Really, centre NZ doesn't like snap elections. Which are always (so far) perceived as electioneering by the Government.
There's a very strong argument, that Clark would have done much better to wait until the 'official' election date in Oct/Nov. She could very easily have eaten a bit of humble pie and gone to the Greens for confidence and supply for the next 4 months – if she, indeed, needed to – it's highly unlikely that the other parties would have formed a coalition against her (I mean, can you envisage Alliance and Green MPs voting in the House with National?). And there is, in any case, little significant legislation usually passed in the 4 months leading up to an election. As it was, many voters just saw this as electioneering – and her hoping to turn the (then) high Labour support into an outright majority.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002_New_Zealand_general_election
" Have a look at the opinion polls, directly after the snap election was announced "
I don't need to I was around at the time and well remember the polling numbers. Its hard to see her keeping those numbers before the early election announcement as her thinking was going to the country on October 6th 2002 but went three months early and a some loss of polling support was going to occur.
She was always going to face a split in the vote on the right due to the catastrophic collapse of the National party and it made no difference when the election was.
She was still returned with an increased majority on 1999 hardly a failure.
As for swordfish I always appreciate your in depth analysis as it helps contributors like Belladonna with factual information.
She was in with a chance of an absolute majority. Dropped signifiantly in the polls (10%+ is a significant change). Had to negotiate with Dunne & Peters.
Even you said: "Some loss of polling was going to occur"
Yes, that's the point, as I said, NZ centrist voters don't like snap elections. Labour won in 2020. There is a very strong argument that they would have had a greater majority if Clark hadn't called a snap election.
Like Swordfish, I provide facts and links — you just provide 'reckons'.
" She was in with a chance of an absolute majority "
In with a chance but not guaranteed !! Exactly she was never going to get a majority in a right wing media , business environment and when people had a chance to focus on the issues the date of the election was soon forgotten about.
I just provide " recons " and you just provide " what ifs "
The date of the election as she said herself and many people who held an opinion was that they had made up their minds by polling day and returned the Labour party in significant numbers that opportunists like Dunne and Peters came to the table to negotiate with Clark not English and despite the " early poll " the next government was a Labour led one in a MMP parliament.
Once again, no links – just your opinion, entirely unsupported by facts.
Surprisingly (not) you agree with Swordfish, but disagree with me. Newsflash! We're saying the same thing.
Newsflash !!!
I disagreed about your argument regarding the early election announcement. Helen was never going to go into the general election that year whenever it was held with 52 % support.
Incumbent governments always drop some , a little some a lot depending on circumstances at the time.
Yes my opinion after watching and participating in election campaigns in this country since 1984.
Loss of support for calling an early election ….well to make you happy then some members of the electorate took offense ….but only the ones who never intended to vote for Clark -Cullen anyway.
Labour voters still came out in the middle of winter and voted ..Labour up from 39% in 1999 to 42% in July 2002 and delivered 52 seats
And do you also disagree with Swordfish?
No doubt, you believe that Ardern should call a snap election right now – because all those Labour voters from 2020 will be out in droves in the middle of winter to vote for her.
Meanwhile, in the real world….. the rest of us recognize that calling a snap election would be a losing proposition for the Government.
" No doubt, you believe that Ardern should call a snap election right now – because all those Labour voters from 2020 will be out in droves in the middle of winter to vote for her "
No when you decide to go to the country you weigh up all possible scenarios including a pandemic.
2020 and a majority was down to the fear the electorate was expercining regarding the pandemic and the governments approach.
This is 2022 not 2002 in case you lost track of time.
I have never suggested that this diversion of a snap election which is just nonsense would need to be called now. The government still has a majority to pass laws ( the one's they choose to ) and has the numbers on the select committees unlike 2002.
Meanwhile, in the real world….
Yeah come and join us Bella …Donna
The New Zealand public don't really seem to go for parties calling snap elections. The only 2 recent ones, 1984 and 2002, didn't really work out to well for the party that called them.
For example, in 2002, Labour dropped from about 52% to 41% in the month before election day. Those people all seem to have swung to NZF (up from 3.8% to 10.4%) and United (up from nothing to 6.7%). That was certainly not what Helen Clark expected I suspect.
I used to know Jack Marshall. He once commented that the only effect of calling a snap election in 1951 was that National had 8 years in power instead of 9.
If Labour tried to call a snap election this year I suspect they would be hammered by the electorate. There is no excuse to do it except the hope that they can scrape back in for another term before their support goes far below having any hope. I really don't think that the public, or the Maori caucus, would go for it. Grab what you can while you can is more likely and they will hold on until the end of November 2023 before going to the Polls.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2002_New_Zealand_general_election#Party_vote
.
Probably more complex than that. The New Zealand Election Study Campaign Flow-of-the-Vote data suggests easily the largest swing away from Labour during the campaign was, in fact, into non-voting. Almost a quarter of those expressing an intention to vote Labour when the 2002 campaign commenced ultimately stayed at home. Which was considered extraordinary at the time.
The 2nd greatest 2002 campaign defection from Labour was indeed to NZF (but far, far behind the move into non-voting), followed by those switching from Labour-to-National (yep, even though the Nats fell to their 21% nadir, a Lab-to-Nat swing still occurred) … and then, in 4th place (in terms of Lab campaign defections) Labour-to-United.
NZF's campaign surge certainly came largely (though not exclusively) courtesy of erstwhile Labour voters … but United's sudden boost appears to have come fairly equally from previously-intending Labour & National voters.
Reason ?: A Question of Gates
The NZES found Paintergate & Wormgate did the lion's share of damage to Labour support during the 02 campaign …
… (although it's certainly also true that Clark's decision to call a Snap Election in the first place proved unpopular with the electorate … and her stated desire for single party government was deemed arrogant by many according to polling … so these provided a kind of background context that probably slightly loosened the attachment of a segment of intending Labour voters, putting them up for grabs once Paintergate & Wormgate reared their less-than-pretty heads).
The fallout from Corngate (including the Left looking divided) appears to have only played a secondary role in Labour's plunge (ie overshadowed by the other -gates)
Paintergate saw Clark lose credibility with a hefty segment of erstwhile Labour intenders on what were her strongest attributes – trustworthiness & competence – & therefore she took a clear hit in her Preferred PM rating (which NZES was measuring on a daily basis throughout the campaign).
Whereas Wormgate provided those centrist / swinging voters who were intially intending to vote Labour with a (suddenly new) viable alternative (United), closer to their broad policy preferences.
In the dying few days, however, Clark did manage to recover a little of the lost ground (Labour had fallen toward the mid-to-late 30s by the start of the final week) & she recovered all of Preferred PM rating … demonstrating, as in the 1996 campaign, her ability to rise to the occasion at pivotal moments (although, of course, only a very partial Party Vote recovery).
If Labour tried to call a snap election this year I suspect they would be hammered by the electorate.
Yes once the corporate media run with " paintergates and other distractions designed to erode public credibility.
Funny how one of the biggest scandals in recent history was Key's henchmen involved in a concerted effort to destroy the reputations of their opposition opponents and whale oils participation in attacking and destroying people's reputations and a black ops being run out of the PMs office yet unlike " painter gate " Key escaped unscathed.
Friends in the corporate media are good friends to have ..they are fearful of you and want to keep their jobs. Money talks as well. Key made sure he cultivated the media.
I think the prospect of a snap election is very unlikely.
The possibility would be more likely if Labour was in a position to win at the moment, but felt the chances of winning were decreasing with the progress of time towards the election.
However, based on current polling, there is a good chance that Labour could lose in a snap election scenario. Especially since the voting public takes a fairly negative view of snap elections, especially if they are seen to be a cynical attempt to stay in power.
So, the logical thing to do would be to hang on and hope things turn around for them between now and the election.
So, unless there is some compelling reason for a snap election, such as half the Labour caucus resigning at once, then I just don't see it happening.
And in 12 months 3 Waters will be a distant memory and inflation will be under control.
Those two issues are the only things keeping National in the game currently. With them gone, Labour should ease back into office (perhaps with the support of the Greens)
That is what they will be hoping for I am sure.
3 Waters may or may not be an issue by then. But it does feed into a narrative that National will build on around similar issues, and will probably be part of a picture that National tries to paint about a government being out of touch and refusing to listen.
Inflation will be a much harder one to crack by then. We have had huge amounts of money printing going on within NZ that has fed into our own inflation. Plus we are importing inflation from other countries that have been doing the same.
The big problem for Labour is that any capacity to borrow and spend has already been borrowed and spent. So, any new spending they promise during their election campaign is going to feed into inflation issue. Something I am sure National will jump on gleefully.
I think you are being a bit optimistic about that James, I expect that inflation and co- governance/3 waters will still be front and centre in 12 months.
Perhaps? It's the only way they get re-elected.
Yes, though the old "Drum of Crime" is getting beaten.
Ardern is doing better and better every time she flies overseas.
But onshore it's like she's Lange 1986.
She is not having an affair, she is not an evangelical mess with destructive mates.
" But onshore it's like she's Lange 1986.
Yeah and he was up against James Bolger in the winter campaign of 1987 and returned to government on polling day August 15th.
Lange although suffering a bout of the flu was as sharp as a shard of glass and funny.
Jacinda is not funny or that sharp.
The Snap Election chatter shows that National have deployed their most powerful policy initiative: Wishful thinking.
A switched on media would have great fun mocking them mercilessly for it, but the freaks and monsters that dominate contemporary NZ media are part of the joke.
I well remember the fun that was had over the silliest remit ever passed at a Labour conference. Back in the 1970s someone wanted public servants to be banned from wearing shorts and roman sandals during the summer months. Instead they were to wear long shorts (below the knee) knee length socks and shoes. The cartoonists, comedians, McPhail and Gadsby had a ball.
I suspect a Labour official with an S.o.H. let the remit go to conference.
Wasn't that featured on an episode of "Gliding On"? I seem to recall there was something like that.
I recall a couple of TV skits but they were independent of any TV productions. The "Gliding On" series was among the best comedy produced in NZ. The characters came across as so realistic. I think they are all dead now.
It was a great NZ production. I remember that government minister Mike Moore made a cameo appearance in one episode. They don't make comedy like that anymore.
Anne those were the days..lol
A snap election, now?
National must have been listening to that old sixties Burt Bacharach song "Wishing and Hoping".
A government with a majority on its own in an MMP parliament, half way through a term and with a full legislative book of things to do does not go for a snap election.
+1 Mike the Lefty
There are two arguments on this.
If you truly believe Labours polling will improve over the next 12 months, then yes, you should wait and hold a general election next year.
But on the other hand, if you believe Labour will continue to lose support over the next 12 months, then an early election would be their best bet.
For me, I don't see Labours polling improving anytime soon. I believe the rot has set in, inflation will hit near on 10% and the war on Ukraine will continue unabated. Add to this that the media and public in general are far more hostile towards parties of the left lately, covid fatigue has set in, and brand Ardern is becoming more toxic, I don't see how people can be optimistic about our future prospects.
What policies or future outlook are people seeing that makes them confident that Labours fortunes will turn?
That sounds like wishful thinking on your part MickeyBoyle
Desperate would describe Hooton and Prebbles. Looks like the right wing see Jacinda as the road block to National gaining power. Hooten & Prebbles know a snap election is not even on the cards. This is just dirty politics.
What policies or future outlook do National have?
In what way has "Brand Ardern" become toxic?
Do you have a crystal ball to know with 100% certainty, what will happen over the next 12 months?
Baseless rumours of impending resignation etc put out by right wingers is not new
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2021/11/prime-minister-jacinda-ardern-says-she-s-in-it-for-a-long-time-not-a-good-time.html
''Looks like the right wing see Jacinda as the road block to National gaining power.''
Allow me to correct you, Louis. National used to see Jacinda as a road block to gaining power. She could do no wrong. The mushy middle vote loved her. The world sung her praises. But that shine has tainted; a grey patina is all that's left. She is now a National Party asset, along with Robbo Hood and Kris Faafoi.
What policies or future outlook do National have?
Here's one. It's completely inadequate but better than nothing.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/national-party-favours-non-consorting-laws-to-disrupt-gangs-from-the-inside-out/QFJXAHQDYZEEIB7CCCTUCTQ2T4/
Your opinion isn't a correction.
Obviously the right wing still see Jacinda as a threat.
Is that all you've got Blade?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-17/anti-consorting-laws-wont-stop-bikie-violence-in-canberra/10908048
''Your opinion isn't a correction.''
Well, what would I know. I'm just a simple man.
Is that all you've got Blade?
You asked a question. I stumped up a link. And this commentary:
''Here's one. It's completely inadequate but better than nothing.''
It appears you don't know much Blade and it is a nothing.
How is a gang defined?
Could the NATZ be a gang?
imo dv, yes!!
Good question.
Here is one go at defining "gang":
Robbing from the poor to give to the rich is one quality (eg Lowering taxes, cutting public services, etc.. )
Strong leadership….. ??
Formalized rules…… ✅
common identifying symbols and graffiti ……..
Yep! All the hall marks
Probably not, but gangs could start using political party logos as patches if they wanted to rub it in.
Nice one Craig!!!!
It seems you have a problem with comprehension. But I won't take it further. At the end of the day it will be of no importance because Labour won’t be the government.
Oh, this may be a reason. While Rome burned, Poto and Labour were to busy doing a Marco. Gadflying with shades on…what what!
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2022/06/auckland-gang-wars-more-shooting-incidents-overnight-across-four-suburbs.html
I don't have a problem with comprehension, but it appears you may though Blade.
To add to that, the tax policies are basically the 2017 policies reheated.
“ and brand Adern is becoming more toxic”
that’s assuming her brand was toxic in the first place. If you really want an experience head to the toxic wasteland that is Kiwi Blog or the Heralds comments section.
It was for the likes of Blade that certain European royalty adopted the motto Honi soit qui mal y pense.
Other way around, I think. It's virtually too late for a snap election to capitalise on Labour in a lead position – that boat has sailed.
It would only result in them losing power a year early (as I said above, even if they won it would be as a 2- or 3-way coalition – rather than the outright majority they have now)
So, lots of pain, little or no gain.
However, if they wait, there is the hope that 3 waters will have settled, inflation will be more under control, and the various building/development programmes they have underway will have had a chance to show some real benefits.
I wouldn't be confident or even optimistic that this will happen, but there is always the chance.
"Events, dear boy, events"
Harold Macmillan
Yeah, that's what worries me. Jacinda has been blessed with disasters. That's when she's at her best. And I would be guttered if the gods gave her another disaster in 2023. Something like an earthquake, terrorist attack on the Sky Tower or China attacking Taiwan. Kiwi voters are so thick they would look at her managing another disaster and think: 'This woman deserves another go.'' Groan!
"guttered" = in the gutter (or extinguished, in the sense of a candle guttering out)
"gutted" = deeply upset.
Correct. Doesn't worry me which one is used. I would feel the same either way.
Or in the vernacular of the current youth….guts
If someone, anyone, could step up with a roadmap to solve the obvious problems we have it wouldnt matter whether he, she or they was tattooed from arsehole to breakfast time or had no dress sense or was eccentric, whatever…if they could offer more than waffly criticism and convince me they had a plan to address our problems I'd vote for them tomorrow ….we can all, myself included itemise the problems, the leadership we need has to outline a convincing solution…where are they?