Why on earth would Jacinda go to the polls now where there is a reasonable prospect of losing? It would be dumbest move since the drunk Pig did it in 1984.
The health system is about to collapse. It's so bad senior doctors are leaking information to media. In my area seeing the doctor you have enrolled with will take days, even weeks.
Crime? Out of control. Station employee stabbed today.
Maori – Out of control re racist legislation. Where's ya proof? Were do I start? Tonight on 3 News it was said the home bowel screening programme will be brought down to start at 50 years old because of the increase in bowel cancer. The catch? It's not for you whitey…but only for Maori and Polynesians. Bloody disgusting.
I won't rant on. Is Mickey right? At the moment probably. But he should be aware NZ is a powder keg of issues that could blow our once great nation apart at any moment. Unless National shoot themselves in the foot multiple times, how can things improve for Labour leading up to the election? That's when the call may go out for an early election.
If I was advising Jacinda, I would be briefing her on various exit strategies.
"Tonight on 3 News it was said the home bowel screening programme will be brought down to start at 50 years old because of the increase in bowel cancer. The catch? It's not for you whitey…but only for Maori and Polynesians."
Makes sense to me because (my bold) finding it early by screening means less likely to have spread so more likely curable
"Māori and Pacific patients <75 had worse all-cause and cancer-specific survival than New Zealand European. Historically, Māori have a lower incidence of CRC compared to New Zealand European,22–24 but this incidence has been rising.5 Our data are consistent with poorer health outcomes often observed in Māori and Pacific cancer patients in New Zealand6,25–28 and is in line with reported survival rates of indigenous and ethnic minority populations in other countries.23,29–32 Of interest was the finding that in the over 75 year age group, while Pacific patients had poorer survival (OR 1.35) compared with New Zealand European, outcomes for Māori were similar (OR 1.06). Factors contributing to the ethnic disparities seen in New Zealand cancer care are well documented; Māori experience more inequalities/barriers when accessing health services than non-Māori,27,28 experience a lower level of care from those services26 and do not get the same access to treatment.33 Māori and Pacific patients are also more likely to present with metastatic disease,6,28,34,35 experience delays to diagnosis6 and present to the emergency department compared to non-Māori /non-Pacific patients.6 Disease biology and culture (eg, diet, help-seeking behaviour),27 deprivation level,6 and higher levels of comorbidity for Māori and Pacific patients6,28,31,33,36 are also factors that contribute to these disparities."
Look, I'm not going to argue the toss with you. We both have different opinions on this issue. Your comment makes complete sense from the medical treatment perspective.
I see it as a racist two tier system that cannot be sustained without a deadly backlash at some stage because it will be a death sentence for some European. The uptake of Maori doing the home screening is a moot point. From my experience it's roughly a 50/50 split of Maori participating in the programme.
''Māori experience more inequalities/barriers when accessing health services than non-Māori''
I also don't agree with that. Talkback has asked Maori representatives time and again to outline examples of inequalities/barriers in our health systems. None could. That's because there are few. There are now way more racist doctors and nurses around. The reason? They have had a gutsful of abuse and non compliance of Maori to follow treatment advice.
I won’t ask you to link to those alleged talk-back shows because you simply refuse to front up and support your assertions because facts don’t matter to you.
A simple Google search, however, gives plenty of info, which you’ll probably ignore too, as usual, because of weak methods, weak data, and mostly because it doesn’t fit with your narrative and doesn’t confirm your bias.
Table 3. Barriers to health experienced by Māori patients and their whānau.
''I won’t ask you to link to those alleged talk-back shows because you simply refuse to front up and support your assertions because facts don’t matter to you.''
It's a fluid medium and I usually catch the tail end of interviews. I have now taken to having a pad near the radio so I can take some notes. The first result is the interview with Sir Lockwood Smith on the HWEN thread. ( incidentally, probably the best interview on this topic, on this blog)
Now, do you know why those spokespeople on talkback couldn't give answers to simple questions? It's because they are used to talking and writing in lingo like this from your link.
''Methods: A systematic search using PRISMA protocols and reflexive typology organised around the categories of Māori, public healthcare and qualitative research identified 14 papers that covered all three categories. We undertook a qualitative metasynthesis on these papers using a critical community psychology approach.''
''Correspondingly, Māori families accessing hospital care for a child encounter systemic barriers.13 Biomedical and reductionist models that focus on presenting symptoms dominate health research approaches,14, 15 and the experiences of marginalised groups are subsumed into dominant individualistic, colonial narratives.15 In short, Māori healthcare needs are not being met.''
Sounds fantastic. Very important. Vey concise and well researched.
But when taken off this reservation of puffery and asked a simple question demanding an objective answer grounded in reality…they flounder.
How do I reach my conclusions. Simple, I ask people I know who work in the health system. Most admit they have little time for Maori. And it shows. When I have had appointments at hospital clinics, or I have accompanied family members, at least 50% of doctors and nurses treat me/us disrespectfully. I have to earn their respect( that annoys me). But here's the thing, once I/we have shown the doctors we have done what they ask…they change and fall over backwards for us. Never have a problem with them again. Eg:
I took an old aunt for an out patients appointment. The doctor was at his desk holding his chin in one hand( body language sign for negative thoughts) He tersely introduced himself and said '' I don't suppose you brought your medications with you?'' I said ''Yes, we have them. We also have her discharge papers from her last stay in hospital and a GPs letter.''
Lol.. he looked up in surprise and said good… good.. very good. He now looks after aunt like his own mother. Hell, the staff have to make her a cuppa after her appointment. Why the change? Because he had some Maoris who actually met him half way.
Yes, you are correct. I reject most of your korero.
What is "disgusting" are ignorant fools braying their flatulent reckons about complex population health programmes based on talkback and anecdata.
The case for reduced screening ages for equity is not at all in doubt. Should have been done from the get-go, as experts advised. I worked alongside many of them at the time.
'''What is "disgusting" are ignorant fools braying their flatulent reckons about complex population health programmes based on talkback and anecdata.''
What would you know?
'The case for reduced screening ages for equity is not at all in doubt.''
Can you read? I have written this to Grafton Gully.
''Look, I'm not going to argue the toss with you. We both have different opinions on this issue. Your comment makes complete sense from the medical treatment perspective.''
What about Pakeha, Sacha?
They'll just have to try pot luck, eh? Let em die in the gutter. They can afford a decent funeral. You make me puke.
By the way, I wonder who on average would be taking better care of their health – 50 year old Pakeha, or 50 year old Maori.
You have no trouble consigning fellow Nzers to a possible death sentence because of your racism.
''You are just embarrassing yourself.''
I don't mind embarrassing myself if it means I'm not a racist like you.
Oh, here's a gift from talkback radio. Who knows it could work for bowel cancer?
One of the he worst forms of racism is when one resists and rejects any attempts at dealing with racism with the absurd argument that this would amount to reverse-racism. In effect, these are racism apologists and they continue to propagate racism.
''One of the he worst forms of racism is when one resists and rejects any attempts at dealing with racism with the absurd argument that this would amount to reverse-racism.''
But that is predicated on our health system being racist towards Maori. I have told you my experiences GENERALLY show otherwise if you meet doctors half way. You have only offered studies and other peoples opinions.
And if all these Maori don't like our general health system, why aren't they enrolling themselves at Hauora Maori health services? Something doesn't gel. Sure they may still have to use public health services, but most general care would be done in a holistic Maori way.
''In effect, these are racism apologists and they continue to propagate racism.''
The problem here is a definition of this situation. You are focused on supposed racism around medical treatment Maori receive. But Maori get lush funding across a variety of sectors, including health.
I'm taking a global approach. You cannot have this two tier system and expect our nation not to divide and a backlash to ensue. It just isn't possible.
Have you not learnt from South Africa, Rhodesia, tribalism in Africa etc. These are paths we are going down and you seem quite happy with that.
''If you keep up these unhinged absurd attacks on others who call out your ignorance you will receive a ban.''
How can it be an unhinged attack when we are throwing fellow NZers under the bus? That's a fact. I point this out and you want to ban me.
You have only offered studies and other peoples opinions.
You missed the point again. I offered you a Table with barriers, which is what you asked for, and then you reject it because it doesn’t align with your own limited experience and you start bleating again about what happened when your aunty hurt her toe.
You are focused on supposed racism around medical treatment Maori receive. But Maori get lush funding across a variety of sectors, including health.
So, I gave you one paper that included 18 years of research in this area based on numerous accounts and individual experiences and you retort with “supposed racism”!? You’re in denial about anything that you cannot see in your yard and supermarket. You’re as blind as a bat, Blade. And you think you know best because only your account matters or matters most.
Whether or not Māori “get”, whatever that means, lush funding is not the point. The point is whether any funding, targeted or not, reaches them and has appositive impact on outcomes for them. The overwhelming evidence so far tells us this is not happening. This is the difference between inequality and inequity.
You can take whatever approach you like because it will be to no avail. There’s already a 2-tier system in NZ, which is called health inequities, so you don’t have to go look afar and can stay close to home.
The unhinged attack was on another commenter, which is bannable offence here. But you already know that.
''Whether or not Māori “get”, whatever that means.''
How about ''receive''?
''The point is whether any funding, targeted or not, reaches them and has appositive impact on outcomes for them. The overwhelming evidence so far tells us this is not happening. This is the difference between inequality and inequity.''
Do you realise what you are saying? You are saying millions is going down the gurgler, some to Maori health providers, with little impact on Maori health outcomes.
'''This is the difference between inequality and inequity.''
I'm sorry. To my way of thinking this is incompetence and poor accounting. Heads should roll.
''You can take whatever approach you like because it will be to no avail. There’s already a 2-tier system in NZ, which is called health inequities, so you don’t have to go look afar and can stay close to home.''
OK, here's the bottom line for you in my opinion. You won't hear this from anyone else on this blog:
" This coming election will be about race. And National will win barring a disaster that allows Jacinda to shine. But it will be just the beginning because National won't get on top of crime. And they won't have the balls to force change that makes Maori more accountable for individual health outcomes. The country will part along race lines even though to an outsider things will look normal. Mixed partnership relationships will go through hell, and schools will become off limits for many. Personal safety will be at risk every time you leave your property. That's the way I see it if you want to keep doing down this path of inequality and inequity.
In fact the split is starting already in urban areas.
Now, do you know why those spokespeople on talkback couldn't give answers to simple questions?
No idea, because I don’t know whom you’re talking about and as far as I know you’ve made it all up in your head – without some back-up evidence we cannot listen & check for ourselves. You fail at this time and time again. I also note that simple questions are often meaningless because they’re often based in ignorance & bias. A good interviewer guides the interviewee(s) to build, explain, and argue their case rather than going for lazy cheap point-scoring inter-rupting talking-over gotcha’s to confirm the bias of their listener-base and bosst their show's ratings (and their ego, of course).
But when taken off this reservation of puffery and asked a simple question demanding an objective answer grounded in reality…they flounder.
Nope, you flounder, in the technical stuff, which you then use as an excuse to reject and ignore the findings even though they came from well-researched studies over 18 years including 372 participants. WTF is an 'objective answer' anyway?
If you had opened your mind and taken a little of your time to read the linked paper you would have seen that your own anecdotal experience might fit in well with that of others, for example:
Experiences of coldness, micro-aggressions, discriminatory behaviour and shaming communicate a sense of ‘not-belonging’ and result in Māori patients and whānau disengaging and/or actively avoiding healthcare-related interactions as much as possible. This disengagement is a sensible tactic that works to sustain and maintain one's sense of self when under attack.
I note that you appear to have very low levels of respect for others whom you dislike and prone to using your fists.
Table 3 of the linked paper was easy enough to take in without all the techno lingo, but you found an excuse to even ignore that even though you asked for it!?
These 14 studies covering the past 18 years of Māori experiences of healthcare tell of an alienating public health system. Māori patients and their whānau consistently experience barriers between themselves and the health treatment they require (and are legally entitled to). Such experiences are a continuation of ongoing exclusion.
There are none so blind as those who will not see. Your conclusions are flawed and weak, your views are therefore flawed and distorted (aka biased) and it shows in almost every comment you make – debating with you is an exercise in utter futility, as others have already found out and you keep confirming fo us time and time again.
I think we can't communicate because you have to run everything through your ideological filter, and then you accuse me of basically the same thing. Who knows, we may both have a point.
I have stated I will now take notes re talkback. Anything I repeat from talkback will now be time stamped if possible.
''I note that you appear to have very low levels of respect for others whom you dislike and prone to using your fists.''
Crikey, have you seen some of the replies to me on this blog lately? I can post a few if you like. Prone to using my fists? That's not true. Where do you get that perception from?
So , I have sat at my key board thinking how I could sum my views up in as few words as possible to save the tit for tat:
''Maori are the authors of most negative experiences they encounter in our health system. Their ignorance, in many cases, reinforces the behaviour of already bigoted health professionals. Other fair minded health professionals are driven towards racist attitudes by the abuse they receive from Maori. That leads to most Maori copping negative outcomes when engaging with our health system.''
I think we can’t communicate because you have to run everything through your ideological filter, and then you accuse me of basically the same thing.
Interesting thesis. What would my ‘ideology’ be, in this context? Perhaps fact-based reasoning leads to better debating outcomes and is more likely to produce a discernible truth or interpretation of reality that is mutually agreeable?
You refuse to back up your assertions and claims of fact, your explanations leave much to the imagination and a lot to be desired, and you write off any counter evidence and counter-arguments when they don’t feel right to you. In other words, yours is the ‘ideology’ of a troll.
Your idiosyncratic disrespect is ubiquitous and omnipresent. You only seem to have respect for talk-back and Raptor Squad. And you brag about knocking out others.
Your views are rigid and set in stone. You have not taken in one thing from a simple Table about Barriers to health experienced by Māori patients and their whanau and keep reverting back to your own narrow-minded views and self-limited anecdotal experience.
You almost tick all the stereotypical boxes of a RWNJ listening to shock-jocks on talk-back. Some would argue that we should listen to and engage with people such as you. I’d say that this appears to be an utter waste of time and you’re just a huge distraction here and a megaphone for RWNJ noise & nuisance.
There is no context. You are a Leftie and everything goes through the same filter. Unless I have you pegged wrong and you are to the Right of politics but have a liberal social justice view?
Perhaps fact-based reasoning leads to better debating outcomes and is more likely to produce a discernible truth or interpretation of reality that is mutually agreeable?
Debating facts is one thing. Understanding trends is another. Notice as a general rule how I'm half a step ahead of what will break in the news, or on this blog, as a item of interest? For example at the time of you banning me for a month
You’re throwing around lazy labels and bumper stickers to see what might stick. No substance whatsoever, just another excuse for you to continue your inane and mostly unsupported comments here. My ‘ideology’ or ‘filter’ have got nothing to with your comments.
A trend based on what? On feels from talk-back? You understand very little of what you read here, elsewhere, or what you hear on talk-back and you cannot construct a decent argument. You lack understanding and your spoiler is feels and ‘psychic imprints’ laced with ‘paramagnetism’.
You’re so far behind that you think you’re ahead and the rest of us are catching up with you. Please bail out gracefully.
When isn't the health system under pressure in winter, and in the first winter of a one in one hundred year pandemic? If rich prick boomers would stop dodging buying rentals and dodging tax for five seconds, the health system might have a fighting chance.
Crime seems acute right now but we have assimilated a lot of people on the edges of society (from Australia) in the last two years. It's what responsible countries do.
Bowel cancer screening targeted to those at high risk? Well, blow me down, that seems sensible to me considering the limited resources we have.
Using attendance stats right now, again in the middle of a one in one hundred year pandemic, is not helpful. Everyone is asked to stay at home if symptoms are present. Also, families are cautious about bringing Covid into vulnerable, multigenerational households. This is sensible right now but our behaviour will adjust as we slowly return to what was considered normal.
I its pretty much same old same old, just the results of years of oppression and unfortunately it will take a lot more years to reverse and I believe with Luxon at the helm it never will.
I believe your a prison officer, in a position better than most too see the situation and my question to you is how many of your clients would be there if they had had a dad to get them plum job at unilever : ( 3rd biggest plastic polluter i read yesterday)
" They know the longer Luxon is in the media limelight, the more his incompetence and religious fundamentalism will be exposed "
Yeah that has been proven to not be a vote loser after all Key's bullshit and dubious claims they still voted for him and the other deplorables in 2008 , 2011 and 2014.
There seems to be this belief that New Zealand voters will see through a dismal opposition Nasty Natz leader……they don't ! the worse they are the more votes they get.
You can always rely on the hobbits to vote to vote for their own demise ..present leadership accepted of course.
Can't see any reason for Labour to call a snap election.
NZ voters, traditionally, don't like them; incumbent governments don't do well.
And, on current polling, it would very much be a toss up, if the left won (and would be a coalition Labour/Green possibly TPM, rather than the outright majority they currently have).
They'd also effectively junk all of the legislation they have in train (even if they won, it would be a politically new ballgame over 'government' legislation).
It would also be bitterly opposed by the majority of the Labour list MPs – at high risk of losing seats.
Really, not a valid choice. What could Labour possibly gain?
And, who would think that Ardern would be so politically naive?
" NZ voters, traditionally, don't like them; incumbent governments don't do well "
Helen just did fine in the winter election of July 27 2002 , she maintained her majority, the first since Muldoon's scnapps election in 1984 after getting a canning in the right wing media for asking the G.G for a dissolution when the Alliance collapsed and was going to have problems passing legislation in the house.
Now LINO would be hard pressed to gain a majority but MMP can deliver some unusual results.
A lot of that support went to the centrist United (Peter Dunne) party & to Peter’s NZ First (see Swordfish’s excellent analysis, below)
Really, centre NZ doesn't like snap elections. Which are always (so far) perceived as electioneering by the Government.
There's a very strong argument, that Clark would have done much better to wait until the 'official' election date in Oct/Nov. She could very easily have eaten a bit of humble pie and gone to the Greens for confidence and supply for the next 4 months – if she, indeed, needed to – it's highly unlikely that the other parties would have formed a coalition against her (I mean, can you envisage Alliance and Green MPs voting in the House with National?). And there is, in any case, little significant legislation usually passed in the 4 months leading up to an election. As it was, many voters just saw this as electioneering – and her hoping to turn the (then) high Labour support into an outright majority.
" Have a look at the opinion polls, directly after the snap election was announced "
I don't need to I was around at the time and well remember the polling numbers. Its hard to see her keeping those numbers before the early election announcement as her thinking was going to the country on October 6th 2002 but went three months early and a some loss of polling support was going to occur.
She was always going to face a split in the vote on the right due to the catastrophic collapse of the National party and it made no difference when the election was.
She was still returned with an increased majority on 1999 hardly a failure.
As for swordfish I always appreciate your in depth analysis as it helps contributors like Belladonna with factual information.
She was in with a chance of an absolute majority. Dropped signifiantly in the polls (10%+ is a significant change). Had to negotiate with Dunne & Peters.
Even you said: "Some loss of polling was going to occur"
Yes, that's the point, as I said, NZ centrist voters don't like snap elections. Labour won in 2020. There is a very strong argument that they would have had a greater majority if Clark hadn't called a snap election.
Like Swordfish, I provide facts and links — you just provide 'reckons'.
" She was in with a chance of an absolute majority "
In with a chance but not guaranteed !! Exactly she was never going to get a majority in a right wing media , business environment and when people had a chance to focus on the issues the date of the election was soon forgotten about.
I just provide " recons " and you just provide " what ifs "
The date of the election as she said herself and many people who held an opinion was that they had made up their minds by polling day and returned the Labour party in significant numbers that opportunists like Dunne and Peters came to the table to negotiate with Clark not English and despite the " early poll " the next government was a Labour led one in a MMP parliament.
I disagreed about your argument regarding the early election announcement. Helen was never going to go into the general election that year whenever it was held with 52 % support.
Incumbent governments always drop some , a little some a lot depending on circumstances at the time.
Yes my opinion after watching and participating in election campaigns in this country since 1984.
Loss of support for calling an early election ….well to make you happy then some members of the electorate took offense ….but only the ones who never intended to vote for Clark -Cullen anyway.
Labour voters still came out in the middle of winter and voted ..Labour up from 39% in 1999 to 42% in July 2002 and delivered 52 seats
No doubt, you believe that Ardern should call a snap election right now – because all those Labour voters from 2020 will be out in droves in the middle of winter to vote for her.
Meanwhile, in the real world….. the rest of us recognize that calling a snap election would be a losing proposition for the Government.
" No doubt, you believe that Ardern should call a snap election right now – because all those Labour voters from 2020 will be out in droves in the middle of winter to vote for her "
No when you decide to go to the country you weigh up all possible scenarios including a pandemic.
2020 and a majority was down to the fear the electorate was expercining regarding the pandemic and the governments approach.
This is 2022 not 2002 in case you lost track of time.
I have never suggested that this diversion of a snap election which is just nonsense would need to be called now. The government still has a majority to pass laws ( the one's they choose to ) and has the numbers on the select committees unlike 2002.
The New Zealand public don't really seem to go for parties calling snap elections. The only 2 recent ones, 1984 and 2002, didn't really work out to well for the party that called them.
For example, in 2002, Labour dropped from about 52% to 41% in the month before election day. Those people all seem to have swung to NZF (up from 3.8% to 10.4%) and United (up from nothing to 6.7%). That was certainly not what Helen Clark expected I suspect.
I used to know Jack Marshall. He once commented that the only effect of calling a snap election in 1951 was that National had 8 years in power instead of 9.
If Labour tried to call a snap election this year I suspect they would be hammered by the electorate. There is no excuse to do it except the hope that they can scrape back in for another term before their support goes far below having any hope. I really don't think that the public, or the Maori caucus, would go for it. Grab what you can while you can is more likely and they will hold on until the end of November 2023 before going to the Polls.
For example, in 2002, Labour dropped from about 52% to 41% in the month before election day. Those people all seem to have swung to NZF (up from 3.8% to 10.4%) and United (up from nothing to 6.7%). That was certainly not what Helen Clark expected I suspect.
Probably more complex than that. The New Zealand Election Study Campaign Flow-of-the-Vote data suggests easily the largest swing away from Labourduring the campaign was, in fact, into non-voting. Almost a quarter of those expressing an intention to vote Labour when the 2002 campaign commenced ultimately stayed at home. Which was considered extraordinary at the time.
The 2nd greatest 2002 campaign defection from Labour was indeed to NZF (but far, far behind the move into non-voting), followed by those switching from Labour-to-National (yep, even though the Nats fell to their 21% nadir, a Lab-to-Nat swing still occurred) … and then, in 4th place (in terms of Lab campaign defections) Labour-to-United.
NZF's campaign surge certainly came largely (though not exclusively) courtesy of erstwhile Labour voters … but United's sudden boost appears to have come fairly equally from previously-intending Labour & National voters.
Reason ?: A Question of Gates
The NZES found Paintergate & Wormgate did the lion's share of damage to Labour support during the 02 campaign …
… (although it's certainly also true that Clark's decision to call a Snap Election in the first place proved unpopular with the electorate … and her stated desire for single party government was deemed arrogant by many according to polling … so these provided a kind of background context that probably slightly loosened the attachment of a segment of intending Labour voters, putting them up for grabs once Paintergate & Wormgate reared their less-than-pretty heads).
The fallout from Corngate (including the Left looking divided) appears to have only played a secondary role in Labour's plunge (ie overshadowed by the other -gates)
Paintergate saw Clark lose credibility with a hefty segment of erstwhile Labour intenders on what were her strongest attributes – trustworthiness & competence – & therefore she took a clear hit in her Preferred PM rating (which NZES was measuring on a daily basis throughout the campaign).
Whereas Wormgate provided those centrist / swinging voters who were intially intending to vote Labour with a (suddenly new) viable alternative (United), closer to their broad policy preferences.
In the dying few days, however, Clark did manage to recover a little of the lost ground (Labour had fallen toward the mid-to-late 30s by the start of the final week) & she recovered all of Preferred PM rating … demonstrating, as in the 1996 campaign, her ability to rise to the occasion at pivotal moments (although, of course, only a very partialParty Vote recovery).
If Labour tried to call a snap election this year I suspect they would be hammered by the electorate.
Yes once the corporate media run with " paintergates and other distractions designed to erode public credibility.
Funny how one of the biggest scandals in recent history was Key's henchmen involved in a concerted effort to destroy the reputations of their opposition opponents and whale oils participation in attacking and destroying people's reputations and a black ops being run out of the PMs office yet unlike " painter gate " Key escaped unscathed.
Friends in the corporate media are good friends to have ..they are fearful of you and want to keep their jobs. Money talks as well. Key made sure he cultivated the media.
I think the prospect of a snap election is very unlikely.
The possibility would be more likely if Labour was in a position to win at the moment, but felt the chances of winning were decreasing with the progress of time towards the election.
However, based on current polling, there is a good chance that Labour could lose in a snap election scenario. Especially since the voting public takes a fairly negative view of snap elections, especially if they are seen to be a cynical attempt to stay in power.
So, the logical thing to do would be to hang on and hope things turn around for them between now and the election.
So, unless there is some compelling reason for a snap election, such as half the Labour caucus resigning at once, then I just don't see it happening.
And in 12 months 3 Waters will be a distant memory and inflation will be under control.
Those two issues are the only things keeping National in the game currently. With them gone, Labour should ease back into office (perhaps with the support of the Greens)
3 Waters may or may not be an issue by then. But it does feed into a narrative that National will build on around similar issues, and will probably be part of a picture that National tries to paint about a government being out of touch and refusing to listen.
Inflation will be a much harder one to crack by then. We have had huge amounts of money printing going on within NZ that has fed into our own inflation. Plus we are importing inflation from other countries that have been doing the same.
The big problem for Labour is that any capacity to borrow and spend has already been borrowed and spent. So, any new spending they promise during their election campaign is going to feed into inflation issue. Something I am sure National will jump on gleefully.
I think you are being a bit optimistic about that James, I expect that inflation and co- governance/3 waters will still be front and centre in 12 months.
The Snap Election chatter shows that National have deployed their most powerful policy initiative: Wishful thinking.
A switched on media would have great fun mocking them mercilessly for it, but the freaks and monsters that dominate contemporary NZ media are part of the joke.
I well remember the fun that was had over the silliest remit ever passed at a Labour conference. Back in the 1970s someone wanted public servants to be banned from wearing shorts and roman sandals during the summer months. Instead they were to wear long shorts (below the knee) knee length socks and shoes. The cartoonists, comedians, McPhail and Gadsby had a ball.
I suspect a Labour official with an S.o.H. let the remit go to conference.
I recall a couple of TV skits but they were independent of any TV productions. The "Gliding On" series was among the best comedy produced in NZ. The characters came across as so realistic. I think they are all dead now.
It was a great NZ production. I remember that government minister Mike Moore made a cameo appearance in one episode. They don't make comedy like that anymore.
National must have been listening to that old sixties Burt Bacharach song "Wishing and Hoping".
A government with a majority on its own in an MMP parliament, half way through a term and with a full legislative book of things to do does not go for a snap election.
If you truly believe Labours polling will improve over the next 12 months, then yes, you should wait and hold a general election next year.
But on the other hand, if you believe Labour will continue to lose support over the next 12 months, then an early election would be their best bet.
For me, I don't see Labours polling improving anytime soon. I believe the rot has set in, inflation will hit near on 10% and the war on Ukraine will continue unabated. Add to this that the media and public in general are far more hostile towards parties of the left lately, covid fatigue has set in, and brand Ardern is becoming more toxic, I don't see how people can be optimistic about our future prospects.
What policies or future outlook are people seeing that makes them confident that Labours fortunes will turn?
That sounds like wishful thinking on your part MickeyBoyle
Desperate would describe Hooton and Prebbles. Looks like the right wing see Jacinda as the road block to National gaining power. Hooten & Prebbles know a snap election is not even on the cards. This is just dirty politics.
What policies or future outlook do National have?
In what way has "Brand Ardern" become toxic?
Do you have a crystal ball to know with 100% certainty, what will happen over the next 12 months?
Baseless rumours of impending resignation etc put out by right wingers is not new
''Looks like the right wing see Jacinda as the road block to National gaining power.''
Allow me to correct you, Louis. National used to see Jacinda as a road block to gaining power. She could do no wrong. The mushy middle vote loved her. The world sung her praises. But that shine has tainted; a grey patina is all that's left. She is now a National Party asset, along with Robbo Hood and Kris Faafoi.
What policies or future outlook do National have?
Here's one. It's completely inadequate but better than nothing.
There is no consensus on the exact definition of a gang, however, and scholars have debated whether the definition should expressly include involvement in crime. Some gangs, but not all, have strong leadership, formalized rules, and extensive use of common identifying symbols. Many gangs associate themselves with a particular geographic area or type of crime, and some use graffiti as a form of nonverbal communication.
Robbing from the poor to give to the rich is one quality (eg Lowering taxes, cutting public services, etc.. )
It seems you have a problem with comprehension. But I won't take it further. At the end of the day it will be of no importance because Labour won’t be the government.
Oh, this may be a reason. While Rome burned, Poto and Labour were to busy doing a Marco. Gadflying with shades on…what what!
that’s assuming her brand was toxic in the first place. If you really want an experience head to the toxic wasteland that is Kiwi Blog or the Heralds comments section.
What policies or future outlook are people seeing that makes them confident that Labours fortunes will turn?
Other way around, I think. It's virtually too late for a snap election to capitalise on Labour in a lead position – that boat has sailed.
It would only result in them losing power a year early (as I said above, even if they won it would be as a 2- or 3-way coalition – rather than the outright majority they have now)
So, lots of pain, little or no gain.
However, if they wait, there is the hope that 3 waters will have settled, inflation will be more under control, and the various building/development programmes they have underway will have had a chance to show some real benefits.
I wouldn't be confident or even optimistic that this will happen, but there is always the chance.
Yeah, that's what worries me. Jacinda has been blessed with disasters. That's when she's at her best. And I would be guttered if the gods gave her another disaster in 2023. Something like an earthquake, terrorist attack on the Sky Tower or China attacking Taiwan. Kiwi voters are so thick they would look at her managing another disaster and think: 'This woman deserves another go.'' Groan!
If someone, anyone, could step up with a roadmap to solve the obvious problems we have it wouldnt matter whether he, she or they was tattooed from arsehole to breakfast time or had no dress sense or was eccentric, whatever…if they could offer more than waffly criticism and convince me they had a plan to address our problems I'd vote for them tomorrow ….we can all, myself included itemise the problems, the leadership we need has to outline a convincing solution…where are they?
Hi,You can’t make this stuff up.People involved with Sound of Freedom, the QAnon-infused movie about anti-child trafficker Tim Ballard, are dropping like flies. I won’t ruin your day by describing it here, but Vice reports that footage has emerged of executive producer Paul Hutchinson being inappropriate with a 16-year-old trafficking ...
The trading banks yesterday concluded that though GDP figures released yesterday show the economy is not in recession, it may well soon be. Nevertheless, the fact that GDP has gone up 0.8 per cent in the latest quarter and that StatsNZ revised the previous quarter’s figure to show a ...
.Thanks for reading Frankly Speaking ! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work..A recent political opinion poll (20 September) on TV1 presented what could only be called bleak news for the Left Bloc:National: 37%, down two points equating to 46 seatsLabour: 27%, down one point (34 ...
Open access notables At our roots Skeptical Science is about cognition of the results of climate science research in the minds of the entire human population. Ideally we'd be perfectly communicating understanding of Earth's climate, and perfectly understood. We can only approximate that, but hopefully converging closer to perfection. With ...
Coming Over The Top: Rory Stewart's memoir, Politics On The Edge, lays bare the dangerous inadequacies of the Western World's current political model.VERY FEW NEW ZEALANDERS will have heard of Rory Stewart. Those with a keen eye for the absurdities of politics may recognise the name as that of the ...
A bit of a narrative has been building that these two guys, your Chris and your Chris, are not so very different.It's true to a point. The bread and butter timidity has been dispiriting to watch, if you have a progressive disposition. It does leave the two of them relatively ...
Richard Prebble writes – There was a knockout winner of the Leaders’ debate. Check for yourself. Recall how they looked. If you cannot remember or missed it, the debate is on TVNZ’s website. Turn off the sound and ask: “Which one looks like a Prime Minister?” ...
Just like National when it was in government, Labour bought nominal GDP growth and momentum by pulling as hard as it could on the population lever. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTLDR:Stats NZ has reported better-than-expected GDP growth in the June quarter, thanks largely to record-high net migration of ...
We already know that the National Party are de facto climate change deniers who want to reverse virtually all climate change policy. So how do they think they'll cut emissions? According to their climate change spokesperson, polluting corporations will do it out of the goodness of their hearts: The ...
Dairy farmers, or at least those who are also shareholders in the Fonterra dairy co-operative would have received a second dose of good news this week, when the dairy giant reported a massive profit jump. This followed news of a better sale at the Fonterra GDT auction this week. Net ...
A longtime New Zealand broadcaster and commentator is taking a theatrical turn in advance of the General Election to draw different kinds of attention to the issues New Zealanders will be voting on in October.In a pre-election event that invites audiences to consider New Zealand politics through a theatrical lens ...
Our busy ministers – desperately busy trying to whip up voters’ support as their poll support sags, among other things – have added just one item of news to the government’s official website over the past 24 hours or so. It’s the news that the Government has accepted the Environment ...
On Monday, we learned that Queenstown, one of the country's largest tourist destinations, suddenly had to boil its water to avoid cryptosporidium. Now, it looks like it will last for months. Why? The usual reason: they'd been keeping rates low: Queenstown could face months of having to boil water ...
This week’s ONE News-Verian poll had the National/ACT coalition teetering on the edge of being able to govern alone while – just as precariously – having its legislative agenda vulnerable to a potential veto by Winston Peters in the House. So close, but so perilous. During the run-up to election ...
National Leader Christopher Luxon likes to bag the way the Resource Management Act worked. Though it has been repealed and replaced by the Labour government, Luxon plans, before Christmas, to repeal the new legislation and, for the foreseeable future, revert to the old Act that he has consistently criticised. ...
This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections On August 16, 2022, President Biden signed the Inflation Reduction Act into law. Over a year later, its climate provisions remain a hot topic. The law’s proponents argue that it’s created a boom in domestic manufacturing jobs within the United States while paving ...
New Zealand’s dairy farmers will be relieved that prices rose for the second time this month at the latest Fonterra GDT auction. The encouraging feature of the sale was the activity of Chinese buyers who drove up prices. As a result, the GDT price index rose 4.6%, helped by a 4.6% lift ...
Here is a review of last night’s Democracy McNuggets debate, delivered in the style of last night's Democracy McNuggets debate.McNugget #1This format was very advantageous for the man who speaks in lazy SLAM DUNK.To hark back a few editions: The lazy SLAM DUNK doesn’t bother to make its case. It simply offers ...
Unfortunately I will need to take a bit of time off from this blog. After months of misdiagnoses and a change in GPs, my precious son is in Starship Hospital about to have major surgery. He already has had one … Continue reading → ...
Buzz from the BeehiveSource: ANZ The latest balance of payments statistics – providing a broad measure of what the country earns and spends internationally – gave grist to Finance Minister Grant Robertson’s publicity mill today. The current account deficit narrowed to 7.5 per cent of ...
Can This Be Possible? For nearly thirty years the pundits have been telling the minor parties that they must be good little puppies and let the big dogs decide. The parties with a plurality of the votes cast must be allowed to govern – even if that means ignoring the ...
Since we began worrying about climate change, the market fundamentalists have pushed the idea of "offsets" rather than actual emissions reductions. There's just one atmosphere after all, so in theory it doesn't matter where the reductions are made, so you can just pay someone on the other side of the ...
Ministers are pretending the former PM has simply vanished.Graham Adams writes – Late last week, Tova O’Brien asked Grant Robertson on her Stuff podcast if Jacinda Ardern should be “rolled out” to “galvanise the base” to help save Labour’s faltering campaign. Robertson laughed. ”I’m sure for ...
Owners of property deemed at risk from climate change related floods and rising sea levels will increasingly find their access to affordable insurance shut off. Some may become ‘prisoners’ in their uninsurable and therefore unbankable homes. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR:IAG, which insures more than 60% of homes ...
So it’s kind of obligatory to start with the boxing analogy…In the red corner, you’ll know him from his red hair and his red heart, the champion of achievable socialism, weighing in when given the opportunity - it’s Chris.And fighting out of the blue corner, you’ll know him from his ...
Last night’s TVOne debate may well reinforce the idea that the minor parties will determine this election. Prime Minister Chris Hipkins and National leader Christopher Luxon ended their one-and-a-half hours with Luxon probably slightly ahead, though a stalemate might be a more realistic assessment. But there was nothing of ...
On February 14, 2023 we announced our Rebuttal Update Project. This included an ask for feedback about the added "At a glance" section in the updated basic rebuttal versions. This weekly blog post series highlights this new section of one of the updated basic rebuttal versions and serves as a ...
Aliens landed in the seaside village this morning. Just like every other cruise tourist who gets carted over here by Fullers and dumped at the bus stop, they had that bewildered look that said, How do you have fun here?I took them by their goey rubbery arms and said, Come ...
The 2023 general election campaign must be the most hollow in living memory. There really isn’t much that is positive or attractive about the electoral options on offer. This is an election without inspiration. An angry mood for change There is a definite cyncism amongst the public right now – ...
As New Zealand confronts a near-record current account deficit few, if any, of the country’s politicians are talking about it or the underlying problems. NZ’s external deficit is expected to continue narrowing, but at a slower pace than forecast a few months ago. Data out this week is expected ...
Fighting Mad: That which Twenty-First Century progressives most feared, Twenty-First Century progressivism has become. No one old enough to have experienced the emancipatory power of true progressivism: in the factory or on the streets; in the university quad or in the “old school” newsroom; could possibly vote for the parties ...
Buzz from the Beehive Hurrah. Someone in the Beehive has posted a ministerial announcement, the first since Foreign Affairs Minister Nanaia Mahuta last Thursday announced New Zealand will provide humanitarian support to those affected by last week’s earthquake in Morocco. It is somewhat stale news, dated 15 September 2023. It was ...
More investors are eyeing up the market, and first home buyers are feeling the FOMO again. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: Landlords are gearing up to jump back into the housing market as soon as a National-ACT Government is elected, expecting a swathe of repeals to tax rules that ...
* Michael Bassett writes – If Labour ministers and our left-leaning media knew more about New Zealand’s political history they would stop giving so much publicity to National’s tax-cut plans, ill-advised though they might be. The attacks are only increasing the likelihood that National will be elected. In one ...
Debate time: In contrast to most debates, political debates aren’t simply about winning on points of logic, but are also about looking likeable on television – which is why good political debaters often have to pull their punches on TV, lest they seem unkind to dumb animals. Chris Hipkins is ...
Before New Zealand changed to MMP in 1996 there was a lot more interest in certain local contests. First past the post elections were won and lost in key marginal electorate battles, rendering the votes of those in safe seats largely obsolete.These days local contests have little impact on the ...
Both National and ACT are starting to back off some of their hardline positions on tax and spending. And finally, National leader Christopher Luxon has softened his stance on doing a deal with Winston Peters and NZ First. Their moves are subtle and wrapped up in sound-byte-friendly media standup ...
In Art, we find meaning.From Art, we draw deeper understanding of what the hell it’s all about.Kindly now mute your cellphones and please remain behind the velvet ropes as we move through the gallery.She might be contemplating a secret, she might be enjoying a private joke. Perhaps she is simply ...
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The right has a problem with brainwormed conspiracy theorists. They've thoroughly infiltrated NZFirst and ACT, and now it seems they've infiltrated National as well: The National Party candidate favoured to win the Hamilton East electorate held views directly opposed to the party's leader on fluoridation of water and vaccine ...
Pushed by the need for votes, Act’s leader, David Seymour, like Richard Prebble before him, has reached out to the dark side of the New Zealand electorate. Much as he would prefer to pull in support on the strength of Act’s sunny libertarianism, there just ain’t enough Eighteenth Century liberals ...
Buzz from the BeehiveAgain, no news has been posted on the government’s official website over the past 24 hours. Indeed, no news has been posted since Foreign Affairs Minister Nanaia Mahuta last Thursday announced New Zealand would be providing $1 million humanitarian support to Morocco to those affected by ...
Despite the headlines, things are not much worse than at the time of the 2023 budget, but fiscal management is always difficult.Brian Easton writes- The Treasury is required by law to publish a Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update (PREFU) a few weeks before a general election, ...
It’s a bit bigger than that: the gap between National’s forecast of lost tax revenues from changes to tax rules for landlords and what Treasury predicts is significant, and adds to the $500 million a year predicted shortfall from its foreign buyers tax . File Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The ...
Once upon a time, manifestos were a key feature of the election period, arriving in letterboxes in solid printed form, and full of details of what each party proposed to do and why. These days, we get a little pledge card with a few bullet points on it. So it’s interesting ...
Change is coming. A shakeup of the ministers responsible for New Zealand’s international relations seems almost guaranteed, irrespective of the country’s election result on October 14. Coalition politics are likely to play a key role in appointments related to foreign affairs. On current opinion polling, a government led by the ...
ACT leader David Seymour has declared war on the public service with his promise to sack 15,000 of them. This is probably four times more than National want given the boot under its promise to cut all budgets by 6.5 per cent. But Seymour may have got a foretaste ...
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Hi,Webworm was birthed over three years ago, as New Zealand went into its first Covid lockdown. Back then I wrote a lot about the conspiratorial madness that erupted from the sewers, the world very quickly becoming infected with brain worms. I have all those Webworms archived here, for anyone interested.As ...
Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: Here’s a few things that I stumbled on over the week that made me stop and think, or just have a chuckle. Hope you enjoy them on a Sunday. They’re especially for paying subscribers, although if there’s plenty of support from paying subscribers, I ...
“Suppose big ‘ol Luxon will be there”, said my middle lad Johnny, watching the game with me.“Doubt it”, I replied, remembering John Key being soundly booed at games in the past. “League is a working man’s game, West Auckland, South Auckland, this is Labour territory”.Getty images.It’s true. I remember the ...
I always smile when my supermarket checkout offers me a moment of existential angst. Do you wish to continue? a kindly woman’s voice asks, meaning: you're standing in front of a card-only machine and cash money’s no good here.Do you wish to continue? What’s not to like about some Hamlet ...
A chronological listing of news and opinion articles posted on the Skeptical Science Facebook Page during the past week: Sun, Sep 10, 2023 thru Sat, Sep 16, 2023. Story of the Week Humans Have Crossed 6 of 9 ‘Planetary Boundaries’Scientists analyzed nine so-called planetary boundaries and found humans are currently ...
Mr Pushmepullyou: Pushed by the need for votes, Act's leader, David Seymour, like Richard Prebble before him, has reached out to the dark side of the New Zealand electorate. Much as he would prefer to pull in support on the strength of Act's sunny libertarianism, there just ain't enough Eighteenth ...
Buzz from the Beehive Your Point of Order writers, again starved of news when they visited the government’s official website this morning, found something fascinating while surfing the worldwide web. Our attention was drawn to a TVNZ interview last Sunday, when Rawiri Waititi, co-leader of the Māori Party defended the ...
TL;DR: I interviewed ACT Leader David Seymour this week after the party released its housing policy1, which includes:an aim to build 51,000 new houses a year, which relies on a migration forecast of around 28,000 per year (there was 96,200 net migration in the year to the end of July);sharing ...
Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The five things that mattered in Aotearoa’s political economy that we wrote and spoke about via The Kākā and elsewhere for paying subscribers in the last week included:Treasury published the Pre Election Fiscal Update (PREFU) on Tuesday, including a one-year delay in Labour returning ...
“Can you guys hear me?”, said Nicola, feeling her body shrink into the corner of the sofa.She moved her head, which for some reason turned incredibly slowly. Her eyes took even longer to follow.A man was sitting at the far end of the sofa with one foot resting on the ...
Hello! Here comes the Saturday edition of More Than A Feilding, catching you up on the week.MONDAY Craig Renney has their numbers. They do not balance.Fact and number-checking the bureaucracy-hatersSome of the clearest commentary this election has been coming from CTU economist Craig Renney.Yesterday he helpfully translated the ACT party’s ...
Despite the headlines, things are not much worse than at the time of the 2023 budget, but fiscal management is always difficult.The Treasury is required by law to publish a Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update (PREFU) a few weeks before a general election, just as it is required to publish ...
1. A plodding brain inside a shiny dome was questioned by Jack Tame. What did the plodding brain have to offer?a. Charismab. Wizardryc. Goosebumpsd. A Squeezed Muddle2. How did he answer the question: “The foreign buyer tax you’re relying on to fund your tax cuts will need to see about ...
Jerry Coyne has been writing again about mātauranga Māori, this time in an article prompted by the University of Auckland’s “going full steam ahead pushing the scientific value of MM while criticizing modern science”. MM is an abbreviation of Mātauranga Māori, which Coyne describes as “… a gemisch of some ...
Buzz from the Beehive Uh, oh. The Government has nothing to declare – or rather, it had posted no news on the Government’s official website when Point of Order checked at 1pm. Thus it looked like ministers have had nothing to announce since Foreign Affairs Minister Nanaia Mahuta yesterday said ...
The problem with taking GST off of food has little to do with the revenue cost of the policy, it’s that it’s just dumb to begin with. Any gains to households are smaller than those that could be achieved through other instruments, and there’s long-term cost to the integrity of ...
Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: In the 2011 and 2014 election campaigns then-National PMJohn Key shredded Labour Opposition leaders Phil Goff and David Cunliffe with the simple challenge to their tax revenue estimates: ‘Show me the money.’Finance Minister Grant Robertson did the same last night in the finance ...
I saw this headline yesterday. Initially I thought it was referring to tax cuts, but it’s not. The cuts that Nicola Willis promises by Christmas, are to people’s jobs.Let’s for the moment ignore the enormous holes economists across the board have spotted in National’s plan to tax people overseas on ...
Once again, last night at the ASB Great Debate in Queenstown, National’s economic management credentials came under question. Ordinarily questioning National’s economic credibility would be like questioning the Greens’ sincerity on climate change or arguing that Te Paati Maori was not putting enough emphasis on the Treaty. The Guardian-Essential ...
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The next Labour Government will build a new hospital in Hawke’s Bay, Labour leader Chris Hipkins and Labour health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall announced. ...
The Green Party will keep up the fight to support exploited migrant workers, including pushing to end single employer visas, after the government picked up Green recommendations to improve immigration settings. ...
Green Party co leader James Shaw visited a home in Auckland today that has been upgraded with a wide range of energy improvements, similar to those that would be supported through the Green Party’s Clean Power Payment. ...
The Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta’s presence in New York today at the United Nations General Assembly is a contempt of New Zealand’s “caretaker government” convention. Despite the long-standing caretaker convention, Minister Mahuta is today at the UN to sign a highly contentious “Biodiversity Beyond National Jurisdiction (BBNJ) Agreement”, delivering a ...
The Pre-Election Fiscal Update Changes EverythingWithin an hour of this speech there is going to be a debate between the political parties that the media, under MMP, still think are the only parties that matter in this campaign. Both of those parties are riddled with inexperience, as evidenced by ...
National and ACT's tax plans don't add up, and that means deep cuts to the public services New Zealanders rely on, says Labour Campaign Chair Megan Woods. ...
Thank you for your invitation to speak with you this afternoon about New Zealand Foreign Policy. After offering one or two general thoughts about the nature of foreign policy, the focus today will be the Pacific Reset and why its goals remain even more important today as when they were ...
National’s plan to cut policies that are reducing New Zealand’s climate emissions will result in a huge gap in the country’s emissions budgets and could see Kiwis paying significantly more at the petrol pump as a result of Christopher Luxon hiking the ETS price. ...
Labour’s plan to support rooftop solar is a step in the right direction, but falls short of what could be achieved through the Green Party’s Clean Power Payment. ...
Labour will double the number of houses with rooftop solar in New Zealand, lowering household power bills, reducing emissions and boosting renewable electricity generation. ...
A re-elected Labour Government will continue its proud tradition of advancing women’s health, employment, and legal rights Spokesperson for Women Jan Tinetti said. ...
Speaking at the E Tū Election Launch in Auckland today, Green Party co leader Marama Davidson outlined the Green Party’s manifesto commitment to ensure everyone has five weeks of annual leave. ...
A re-elected Labour Government will protect hard-fought workers’ rights and keep the momentum on wage growth to lift incomes for all New Zealanders, leader Chris Hipkins announced today. ...
New Zealand First is proud to announce the Party List for the upcoming 2023 General Election. We have had a great number of applicants and potential candidates moving through the selection process over the past few months. Our final selection for our list proves we have a wide range ...
Massive cuts to public service are on the cards as Nicola Willis has promised to resign if she doesn’t deliver tax cuts but is refusing to make the same commitment if she doesn’t raise enough income from her bungled foreign buyer’s tax. ...
Labour will help more victims of crime achieve justice faster by introducing a formal class-action regime, modernising consent laws and increasing the use of technology to speed up hearings. ...
Labour will deliver the largest ever increase to the number of doctors trained each year, adding an additional 335 doctors a year to our health workforce from 2027, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins has announced. ...
If re-elected Labour will make cervical screening services free to all women and people with a cervix aged 25 – 69 years, delivering better cancer care for over 1.4 million New Zealanders. ...
Labour is running a positive, forward-looking campaign that's focused on fixing the cost of living, keeping people and communities safe and investing in education, health and housing. ...
Statements from David Seymour and Winston Peters have called into question whether National would be able to lead a functional government if they were in a position to do so after the election. ...
The Green Party will protect 30% of the ocean by 2030, create an independent Ocean Commission to advise the government, and put a Green Minister for Oceans and Fisheries in charge of making it happen. ...
National's shaky tax scheme has received a further blow after it’s been revealed that John Key received advice when he was Prime Minister that the scheme being proposed by National couldn’t be done, Labour Finance Spokesperson Grant Robertson says. ...
The National Party’s housing policy is vacant; with no new funding and no timelines attached to its delivery says Labour Housing Spokesperson Megan Woods. ...
A re-elected Labour Government will help Kiwi households to be more energy efficient and reduce emissions from household energy use, Labour Spokesperson for Building and Construction and Energy and Resources, Megan Woods, announced today. ...
A Labour Government will deliver a further increase of 300 additional frontline Police officers, new ways to crackdown on gangs and strengthen legal protections against stalking and harassment. ...
The Green Party is welcoming the launch of Te Ohu Tāmaki, and affirms its commitment to clear the social housing waitlist in 5 years - and challenges other parties to say they will do the same. ...
Labour leader Chris Hipkins has set out his top five priorities for growing the economy which include ambition for New Zealand to be a global leader in sustainable agriculture and renewable energy. ...
Former Wellington Mayor Andy Foster has announced he is standing for New Zealand First in the Mana electorate for the upcoming election. “As a former Mayor of our Capital City, Andy has an exceptional resume and level of professional and governance experience that will be an asset to the team.” ...
It’s Chris Hipkins’ birthday today, and to celebrate we’re taking a look back at some of his most defining moments. During his time at Parliament, he’s led New Zealand through some difficult times, delivered change that will make a real difference to Kiwis' lives, and given us a few laughs. ...
Revelations on Newshub tonight that National only got an expert to review their tax plan two days after it was released adds further fuel to the call for Christopher Luxon and Nicola Willis to release all costings and advice they have received on it, Labour Finance Spokesperson Grant Robertson said. ...
No MP pay rises until essential workers get one first. The pay freeze for parliamentarians is due to end this year, with a hefty pay rise forecasted. The fact is when this announcement was made that Members of Parliament would receive a pay rise, in the middle of an ...
The Government has today confirmed $2.5 million to fund a replace and upgrade a stopbank to protect the Waipawa Drinking Water Treatment Plant. “As a result of Cyclone Gabrielle, the original stopbank protecting the Waipawa Drinking Water Treatment Plant was destroyed. The plant was operational within 6 weeks of the ...
Another $2.1 million to boost capacity to deal with waste left in Cyclone Gabrielle’s wake. Funds for Hastings District Council, Phoenix Contracting and Hog Fuel NZ to increase local waste-processing infrastructure. The Government is beefing up Hawke’s Bay’s Cyclone Gabrielle clean-up capacity with more support dealing with the massive amount ...
The future of Supercars events in New Zealand has been secured with new Government support. The Government is getting engines started through the Major Events Fund, a special fund to support high profile events in New Zealand that provide long-term economic, social and cultural benefits. “The Repco Supercars Championship is ...
The economy has turned a corner with confirmation today New Zealand never was in recession and stronger than expected growth in the June quarter, Finance Minister Grant Robertson said. “The New Zealand economy is doing better than expected,” Grant Robertson said. “It’s continuing to grow, with the latest figures showing ...
The Government has accepted the Environment Court’s recommendation to give special legal protection to New Zealand’s largest freshwater springs, Te Waikoropupū Springs (also known as Pupū Springs), Environment Minister David Parker announced today. “Te Waikoropupū Springs, near Takaka in Golden Bay, have the second clearest water in New Zealand after ...
Temporary package of funding for accommodation and essential living support for victims of migrant exploitation Exploited migrant workers able to apply for a further Migrant Exploitation Protection Visa (MEPV), giving people more time to find a job Free job search assistance to get people back into work Use of 90-day ...
An export boost is supporting New Zealand’s economy to grow, adding to signs that the economy has turned a corner and is on a stronger footing as we rebuild from Cyclone Gabrielle and lock in the benefits of multiple new trade deals, Finance Minister Grant Robertson says. “The economy is ...
The Government has approved $15 million to raise about 200 homes at risk of future flooding. More than half of this is expected to be spent in the Tairāwhiti settlement of Te Karaka, lifting about 100 homes there. “Te Karaka was badly hit during Cyclone Gabrielle when the Waipāoa River ...
The Government is helping businesses recover from Cyclone Gabrielle and attract more people back into their regions. “Cyclone Gabrielle has caused considerable damage across North Island regions with impacts continuing to be felt by businesses and communities,” Economic Development Minister Barbara Edmonds said. “Building on our earlier business support, this ...
Defence Minister Andrew Little has turned the first sod to start construction of a new Maintenance Support Facility (MSF) at Burnham Military Camp today. “This new state-of-art facility replaces Second World War-era buildings and will enable our Defence Force to better maintain and repair equipment,” Andrew Little said. “This Government ...
Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta will represent New Zealand at the 78th Session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in New York this week, before visiting Washington DC for further Pacific focussed meetings. Nanaia Mahuta will be in New York from Wednesday 20 September, and will participate in UNGA leaders ...
Around 1,700 Te Whatu Ora employed midwives and maternity care assistants will soon vote on a proposed pay equity settlement agreed by Te Whatu Ora, the Midwifery Employee Representation and Advisory Service (MERAS) and New Zealand Nurses Association (NZNO), Minister of Health Dr Ayesha Verrall announced today. “Addressing historical pay ...
Aotearoa New Zealand will provide humanitarian support to those affected by last week’s earthquake in Morocco, Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta announced today. “We are making a contribution of $1 million to the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) to help meet humanitarian needs,” Nanaia Mahuta said. ...
The Government is investing over $22 million across 18 projects to improve the resilience of roads in the West Coast that have been affected by recent extreme weather, Prime Minister Chris Hipkins confirmed today. A dedicated Transport Resilience Fund has been established for early preventative works to protect the state ...
The Government has today confirmed a $2 million grant towards the regeneration of Greymouth’s CBD with construction of a new two-level commercial and public facility. “It will include a visitor facility centred around a new library. Additionally, it will include retail outlets on the ground floor, and both outdoor and ...
Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta will attend the Pacific Islands Forum (PIF) Foreign Ministers’ Meeting, in Suva, Fiji alongside New Zealand’s regional counterparts. “Aotearoa New Zealand is deeply committed to working with our pacific whanau to strengthen our cooperation, and share ways to combat the challenges facing the Blue Pacific Continent,” ...
Economy to grow 2.6 percent on average over forecast period Treasury not forecasting a recession Inflation to return to the 1-3 percent target band next year Wages set to grow 4.8 percent a year over forecast period Unemployment to peak below the long-term average Fiscal Rules met - Net debt ...
Prime Minister Chris Hipkins and Minister of Health Dr Ayesha Verrall proudly opened the Canterbury Cancer Centre in Christchurch today. The new facility is the first of its kind and was built with $6.5 million of funding from the Government’s Infrastructure Reference Group scheme for shovel-ready projects allocated in 2020. ...
$12 million to improve the resilience of roads in the Nelson, Marlborough and Tasman regions Hope Bypass earmarked in draft Government Policy Statement on land transport $127 million invested in the top of the south’s roads since flooding in 2021 and 2022 The Government is investing over $12 million to ...
Ko tēnei te wiki e whakanui ana i tō tātou reo rangatira. Ko te wā tuku reo Māori, e whakanuia tahitia ai te reo ahakoa kei hea ake tēnā me tēnā o tātou, ka tū ā te Rātū te 14 o Mahuru, ā te 12 o ngā hāora i te ahiahi. ...
The 70-year-old Wildlife Act will be replaced with modern, fit-for-purpose legislation to better protect native species and improve biodiversity, Minister of Conservation Willow-Jean Prime has announced. “New species legislation is urgently needed to address New Zealand’s biodiversity crisis,” Willow-Jean Prime said. “More than 4,000 of our native species are currently ...
Central and Local Government are today announcing a range of new measures to tackle low-level crime and anti-social behaviour in the Auckland CBD to complement Police scaling up their presence in the area. “Police have an important role to play in preventing and responding to crime, but there is more ...
The Government has confirmed $73.7 million over the next four years and a further $40.5m in outyears to continue to transform the disability support system, Minister for Disability Issues Priyanca Radhakrishnan has announced. “The Enabling Good Lives (EGL) approach is a framework which guides positive change for disabled people, ...
Standard and Poor’s is the latest independent credit rating agency to endorse the Government’s economic management in the face of a deteriorating global economy. S&P affirmed New Zealand’s long term local currency rating at AAA and foreign currency rating at AA+ with a stable outlook. It follows Fitch affirming New ...
Christchurch barrister Kelvin Reid has been appointed as a Judge of the Environment Court and the District Court, Attorney-General David Parker announced today. Mr Reid has extensive experience in Resource Management Act issues, including water quality throughout the South Island. He was appointed to the Technical Advisory Group advising the ...
New Zealand is on track to have greener steel as soon as 2026 with New Zealand Steel’s electric arc furnace project reaching a major milestone today. The Government announced a conditional partnership with New Zealand Steel in May to deliver the country’s largest emissions reduction project to date. Half of ...
Pokia ana te tihi Taiarahia e Hine-Pūkohu-rangi Hotu kau ana te manawa! Horahia ana te whārua o Ruātoki e te kapua pouri Tikaro rawahia ko te whatumanawa! Rere whakamuri kau ana te awa o Hinemataroa Ki te kawe i te rongo ki te mātāpuna i nga pōngaihu Maungapōhatu, tuohu ...
Police Minister Ginny Andersen has today congratulated Police in their efforts to crack down on gangs, after laying 50,000 charges against gang members and their associates through the hugely successful Operation Cobalt. As at 31 August, Police have: Laid 50,396 criminal charges against gang members and their associates Issued 64,524 ...
The Government has confirmed details of the tax changes to the bright-line test for cyclone-damaged properties, with the release of the required legislative amendments. Revenue Minister Barbara Edmonds has released a Supplementary Order Paper (SOP) to be considered by the Finance and Expenditure Committee in the next Parliament, as it ...
Minister for Trade and Export Growth Damien O’Connor has welcomed the CPTPP Panel’s ruling in favour of New Zealand in our dispute against Canada, a significant win for our primary sector exporters. The Panel found that Canada’s dairy quota administration is inconsistent with its obligations under the Comprehensive and Progressive ...
The next phase of the Government’s response to youth crime is underway, with an intensive programme for the country’s most prolific young offenders launched today in Auckland, Minister for Children Kelvin Davis said. The programme, announced by Prime Minister Chris Hipkins in July, will see up to 60 recidivist young ...
The Government has agreed to a request from the Royal Commission of Inquiry into COVID-19 for extra three months to deliver its final report. The Royal Commission was established in 2022 to strengthen New Zealand’s preparedness for any future pandemics. It was originally due to conclude mid-2024. “The Commission has ...
The Wainuiomata High School redevelopment is making great progress, with two more classroom blocks set to be complete by the end of the month, Prime Minister Chris Hipkins announced today. The Prime Minister visited today to see first-hand the progress of the redevelopment which is continuing at pace and is ...
New Zealand’s Tongan community are coming together to promote language sustainability this week, as Uike Lea Faka-Tonga – Tongan Language Week begins. “For our Pacific communities, language is more than just a means of communication. It’s an important way to link generations and maintain connections to our ancestral roots,” Barbara ...
The NZ First leader's rehashed claim on a televised debate defending his backing of Labour in 2017 is dismissed as a "fabrication" by Sir Bill English Winston Peters has refloated claims then-National leader Bill English confided in him at the start of 2017's coalition negotiations that he was about to be "rolled" ...
This week on the Raw Politics podcast: We ask why Labour leader Chris Hipkins has failed to fire, as his party would have hoped, in this campaign so far. Plus: this week's debate, the latest polls and how relatively good economic news changes things in the run-up to election day. ...
Crime has been one of the dominant themes of this election campaign and it proved to be the hot button in the second televised debate this week. As Mark Jennings writes, the leaders of the minor parties were taking no prisoners in their battle for crucial votes. TV Viewers interested ...
After more than 50 years under the same proprietorship, Wellington’s famous Green Parrot Cafe is looking for a new owner. And Charlotte Muru-Lanning knows the perfect person to keep its legacy alive. This is an excerpt from our weekly food newsletter, The Boil Up. There’s a dinky little story on the ...
Marama Davidson and Debbie Ngarewa-Packer brought the high-fives. Winston Peters and David Seymour brought high dudgeon. Toby Manhire reports from the Powerbrokers debate in Auckland.No wonder the big parties are so unloved. After the soporific Chris Show on Tuesday, the Newshub Nation Powerbrokers debate last night was an espresso ...
The latest Nielsen BookScan New Zealand bestseller list, described by Steve BrauniasNON-FICTION 1 The Dressmaker and the Hidden Soldier by Doug Gold (Allen & Unwin, $37.99) This hugely popular true-romance story set in World War II is set to be the hit book this Xmas. A free copy was up ...
Winston Peters is predicting a mini-Budget before Christmas and says it will come from a government his party will help form with 'like-minded parties' after the election It was an eclectic and unexpected mix of current and former politicians who fronted the Business North Harbour finance debate on Thursday. Initially billed ...
Football, netball, cricket and rugby - it's all on for Kiwi women's sports teams across the globe this weekend. Merryn Anderson gives the lowdown on all the Ferns action. Did you think, with the wave of World Cups receding from our shores, women's sport was about ...
A tiny town in Central Otago that's already on the world map – for something a little different – is set to notch up another first in a few weeks if its sky high ambitions go to plan. Not content with its world famous curling rink to draw visitors, Naseby, population ...
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Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra Fire fear is gripping many Australians, with extremely high temperatures for September. One day this week some 20 schools on the New South Wales south coast were closed, amid rising weather risk. Sydney national parks ...
Analysis: David Seymour and Winston Peters indicated they could work together in government, but then went on to undermine each other in a lively debate. ...
The Māori electorate of Ikaroa-Rāwhiti is anyone’s game where a third of voters are yet to choose their candidate. Ikaroa-Rāwhiti was flung open when former Labour minister, Meka Whaitiri, switched to Te Pāti Māori in May. A Whakaata Māori exclusive ...
While I’m sure the live broadcast is absolutely riveting, there’s something fun about sitting on a truly uncomfortable bench to watch the debate live. And there have already been a few moments that might not have made the telly. First up: Marama Davidson had a brief run in with a ...
The number of people representing themselves in civil cases has grown enormously in the past decade, prompting calls to relieve pressure on the court system. ...
The first section of tonight’s Newshub Nation Powerbrokers debate focused on co-governance, proving that mortal enemies David Seymour and Winston Peters may have more in common than they once thought. An early answer from Seymour prompted a quick eye roll from the Greens’ Marama Davidson, with Te Pāti Māori’s Debbie ...
Newshub’s live Powerbrokers debate is at 7.30pm – and we couldn’t be more excited. A couple of us are in the studio as it all plays out and we’ll keep you up to date on any important moments. Because we’ve heard a lot from the Chrises on this campaign, but ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra Former Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s decision to put a business future before an attempted political revival is a blow for the Liberal Party, but a relief for the teal member for Kooyong, Monique Ryan. Opposition ...
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Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Cooper Schouten, Project Manager – Bees for Sustainable Livelihoods, Southern Cross University Varroa mites on drone pupae.Cooper Schouten/Southern Cross University, CC BY-SA The federal government body in charge of pest control has announced Australia will abandon efforts on eradicating the Varroa ...
Commenting on the updates to ACT’s alternative budget, Taxpayers’ Union Policy Adviser, James Ross, said: “The only true tax cut is a spending cut, and we welcome ACT’s commitment to tackling the damage caused by 6 years of Labour’s dangerous ...
Thanks to the RNZRSA, a small piece of New Zealand is on its way to every member of the New Zealand Defence Force that will be deployed overseas this Christmas. <img src="https://img.scoop.co.nz/stories/images/2309/f4d24df4a1eb9d163b51.jpeg" ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Annie Te One, Lecturer in Māori Studies, Te Herenga Waka — Victoria University of Wellington In his maiden speech to parliament in 2020, te Pāti Māori co-leader Rawiri Waititi told his fellow MPs: You know what it feels like to have ...
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PNG Post-Courier Papua New Guinea’s chief Immigration boss Stanis Hulahau has warned all foreign nationals in the country that the office will not hesitate to detain and expel them if found engaging in criminal and illegal activities. Chief executive Hulahau issued the stern warning to all foreign nationals in the ...
In the build up to October 14, we’ve asked a smattering of MPs and candidates from across the country for their favourite door knocking story from the campaign. Today: National’s candidate for the Māori seat of Tāmaki Makaurau, Hinurewa te Hau. We are door knocking the Māori seat of Tāmaki ...
Environmentalists have welcomed news that the orange roughy catch will be cut by 40%, but say the need for a bottom trawling ban on seamounts is more urgent than ever. Oceans and Fisheries Minister Rachel Brooking announced a cut to the orange ...
Working people will bear the brunt of WorkSafe’s proposal for a deep and wide restructuring that was announced today said the New Zealand Council of Trade Unions. “Reducing WorkSafe’s capacity and capability is the wrong thing to be undertaking ...
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The government announced today that it will impose an annual $30 per hectare charge on forestry projects that use exotic trees in the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS). This will be another nail in the coffin of sustainable forestry and climate action ...
Workplaces will be less safe following WorkSafe’s decision to significantly restructure the organisation, says the Public Service Association. WorkSafe today unveiled restructuring plans which, if implemented, would significantly impact the organisation’s workforce, ...
The Art of Winning has been on the bestseller list for over a month now. Sam Brooks, who is only vaguely familiar with the concept of Dan Carter, reviews – and is surprised by what he finds.I have never, in my life, seen a minute of Dan Carter playing ...
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The Act Party has adjusted its alternative budget after last week’s pre-election fiscal update (Prefu). It’s seen the party amend its proposed tax cuts, which would now be phased in over a period between 2023 and 2027. The lowest tax rate would still be adjusted to 17.5%, applying to all ...
The Act Party has adjusted its alternative budget after last week’s pre-election fiscal update (Prefu). It’s seen the party amend its proposed tax cuts, which would now be phased in over a period between 2023 and 2027. The lowest tax rate would still be adjusted to 17.5%, applying to all ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tamsin Phillipa Paige, Senior Lecturer, Deakin University Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has lambasted the UN Security Council yet again, saying in a speech this week that as long as Russia has veto power on the body, it will remain powerless to do ...
ACT has unveiled changes to its alternative budget, including softening its tax cuts, delaying its defence funding boost, and speeding up superannuation age rises. ...
ACT has unveiled changes to its alternative budget, including softening its tax cuts, delaying its defence funding boost, and speeding up superannuation age rises. ...
Chris Hipkins has conjured up a new attack line related to National’s poll performance: they’ve peaked. Speaking to reporters in Napier, the Labour leader was asked to comment on the latest 1News Verian poll released last night. It showed National 10 points ahead of Labour on 37% to 27%. But ...
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Responding to National’s four step plan to boost international enrolments across Tertiary Education Institutions, Taxpayers' Union Deputy Campaigns Manager, Connor Molloy said: “At a time when universities all over the country are reporting crushing ...
The Forest Owners Association (FOA) says the just announced cost recovery scheme for the Emissions Trading Scheme is another government disincentive to plant forests just when they are most needed. President Grant Dodson says the huge jump to a more ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mark Stevenson, Professor of Urban Transport and Public Health, The University of Melbourne In 2022, there were nearly 1,200 road crash deaths in Australia – a figure that has remained largely the same over the past decade. However, some states and territories ...
A new study published by Te Aka Matua o te Ture | the Law Commission will provide invaluable guidance to law makers and others interested in the engagement between tikanga and the law. The Study Paper He Poutama (NZLC SP24) was originally requested ...
The economy is in stronger than expected shape, with official figures showing GDP growing at an annual rate of 3.2% says NZCTU Economist Craig Renney. “The June quarter result is an encouraging sign of the underlying strength of the economy,” ...
Groups across Auckland petition candidates to declare support for local planning. A petition signed by 28 Auckland resident and interest groups has been published today urging general election candidates to support planning authority being retained ...
Out now on The Spinoff, the robust political debate the country has been waiting for. Watch the stars of Youth Wings season two go head-to-head on the most pressing issues facing Aotearoa this election. How do we solve the cost of living crisis? Should we lower the voting age? And ...
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“Tāmaki Makaurau Auckland’s diverse communities will be rallying on Saturday 23rd September from 10AM in the downtown Commercial Bay area at the bottom of Queen Street to reject the far-right anti-Māori racism of Christian fundamentalist Julian ...
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Why on earth would Jacinda go to the polls now where there is a reasonable prospect of losing? It would be dumbest move since the drunk Pig did it in 1984.
Drunk Pig? What are you talking about?
''Why on earth would Jacinda go to the polls now where there is a reasonable prospect of losing?''
I was about to answer that then decided it would be a wasted effort.
The death of a thousand cuts is starting to take effect
Rather – wishful thinking by the Natz.
They know the longer Luxon is in the media limelight, the more his incompetence and religious fundamentalism will be exposed.
You didn't see many comments about leadership changes a year or so ago.
It now feels like everyday theres a story about crime or housing, wasn't happening a year or so ago.
'They know the longer Luxon is in the media limelight, the more his incompetence and religious fundamentalism will be exposed.'
Remember when Key was first made National leader, then it was hes just a flash money man, he'll be exposed
Didn't work out so well for Labour then
Same with Ardern, when she was first made Labour leader it was shes inexperienced, shes got a nice smile and nothing else, she'll be exposed
Didn't work out so well for National then
Well said PR.
The health system is about to collapse. It's so bad senior doctors are leaking information to media. In my area seeing the doctor you have enrolled with will take days, even weeks.
Crime? Out of control. Station employee stabbed today.
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2022/06/auckland-transport-staffer-rushed-to-hospital-after-being-stabbed-on-sylvia-park-train-station-platform.html
Maori – Out of control re racist legislation. Where's ya proof? Were do I start? Tonight on 3 News it was said the home bowel screening programme will be brought down to start at 50 years old because of the increase in bowel cancer. The catch? It's not for you whitey…but only for Maori and Polynesians. Bloody disgusting.
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2022/06/five-year-wait-for-nationwide-cancer-screening-has-cost-kiwis-their-lives-bowel-cancer-nz.html
Education? Completely stuffed.
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2022/06/school-principal-warns-of-horrendous-consequences-for-new-zealand-amid-truancy-crisis.html
I won't rant on. Is Mickey right? At the moment probably. But he should be aware NZ is a powder keg of issues that could blow our once great nation apart at any moment. Unless National shoot themselves in the foot multiple times, how can things improve for Labour leading up to the election? That's when the call may go out for an early election.
If I was advising Jacinda, I would be briefing her on various exit strategies.
"Tonight on 3 News it was said the home bowel screening programme will be brought down to start at 50 years old because of the increase in bowel cancer. The catch? It's not for you whitey…but only for Maori and Polynesians."
Makes sense to me because (my bold) finding it early by screening means less likely to have spread so more likely curable
"Māori and Pacific patients <75 had worse all-cause and cancer-specific survival than New Zealand European. Historically, Māori have a lower incidence of CRC compared to New Zealand European,22–24 but this incidence has been rising.5 Our data are consistent with poorer health outcomes often observed in Māori and Pacific cancer patients in New Zealand6,25–28 and is in line with reported survival rates of indigenous and ethnic minority populations in other countries.23,29–32 Of interest was the finding that in the over 75 year age group, while Pacific patients had poorer survival (OR 1.35) compared with New Zealand European, outcomes for Māori were similar (OR 1.06). Factors contributing to the ethnic disparities seen in New Zealand cancer care are well documented; Māori experience more inequalities/barriers when accessing health services than non-Māori,27,28 experience a lower level of care from those services26 and do not get the same access to treatment.33 Māori and Pacific patients are also more likely to present with metastatic disease,6,28,34,35 experience delays to diagnosis6 and present to the emergency department compared to non-Māori /non-Pacific patients.6 Disease biology and culture (eg, diet, help-seeking behaviour),27 deprivation level,6 and higher levels of comorbidity for Māori and Pacific patients6,28,31,33,36 are also factors that contribute to these disparities."
https://journal.nzma.org.nz/journal-articles/the-characteristics-and-outcomes-of-patients-with-colorectal-cancer-in-new-zealand-analysed-by-cancer-network#:~:text=Patient%20and%20tumour%20characteristics%20by,and%20only%205.4%25%20were%20Māori.
Look, I'm not going to argue the toss with you. We both have different opinions on this issue. Your comment makes complete sense from the medical treatment perspective.
I see it as a racist two tier system that cannot be sustained without a deadly backlash at some stage because it will be a death sentence for some European. The uptake of Maori doing the home screening is a moot point. From my experience it's roughly a 50/50 split of Maori participating in the programme.
''Māori experience more inequalities/barriers when accessing health services than non-Māori''
I also don't agree with that. Talkback has asked Maori representatives time and again to outline examples of inequalities/barriers in our health systems. None could. That's because there are few. There are now way more racist doctors and nurses around. The reason? They have had a gutsful of abuse and non compliance of Maori to follow treatment advice.
I won’t ask you to link to those alleged talk-back shows because you simply refuse to front up and support your assertions because facts don’t matter to you.
A simple Google search, however, gives plenty of info, which you’ll probably ignore too, as usual, because of weak methods, weak data, and mostly because it doesn’t fit with your narrative and doesn’t confirm your bias.
Table 3. Barriers to health experienced by Māori patients and their whānau.
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/1753-6405.12971
Experiences of Māori of Aotearoa New Zealand's public health system: a systematic review of two decades of published qualitative research
''I won’t ask you to link to those alleged talk-back shows because you simply refuse to front up and support your assertions because facts don’t matter to you.''
It's a fluid medium and I usually catch the tail end of interviews. I have now taken to having a pad near the radio so I can take some notes. The first result is the interview with Sir Lockwood Smith on the HWEN thread. ( incidentally, probably the best interview on this topic, on this blog)
Now, do you know why those spokespeople on talkback couldn't give answers to simple questions? It's because they are used to talking and writing in lingo like this from your link.
''Methods: A systematic search using PRISMA protocols and reflexive typology organised around the categories of Māori, public healthcare and qualitative research identified 14 papers that covered all three categories. We undertook a qualitative metasynthesis on these papers using a critical community psychology approach.''
''Correspondingly, Māori families accessing hospital care for a child encounter systemic barriers.13 Biomedical and reductionist models that focus on presenting symptoms dominate health research approaches,14, 15 and the experiences of marginalised groups are subsumed into dominant individualistic, colonial narratives.15 In short, Māori healthcare needs are not being met.''
Sounds fantastic. Very important. Vey concise and well researched.
But when taken off this reservation of puffery and asked a simple question demanding an objective answer grounded in reality…they flounder.
How do I reach my conclusions. Simple, I ask people I know who work in the health system. Most admit they have little time for Maori. And it shows. When I have had appointments at hospital clinics, or I have accompanied family members, at least 50% of doctors and nurses treat me/us disrespectfully. I have to earn their respect( that annoys me). But here's the thing, once I/we have shown the doctors we have done what they ask…they change and fall over backwards for us. Never have a problem with them again. Eg:
I took an old aunt for an out patients appointment. The doctor was at his desk holding his chin in one hand( body language sign for negative thoughts) He tersely introduced himself and said '' I don't suppose you brought your medications with you?'' I said ''Yes, we have them. We also have her discharge papers from her last stay in hospital and a GPs letter.''
Lol.. he looked up in surprise and said good… good.. very good. He now looks after aunt like his own mother. Hell, the staff have to make her a cuppa after her appointment. Why the change? Because he had some Maoris who actually met him half way.
Yes, you are correct. I reject most of your korero.
What is "disgusting" are ignorant fools braying their flatulent reckons about complex population health programmes based on talkback and anecdata.
The case for reduced screening ages for equity is not at all in doubt. Should have been done from the get-go, as experts advised. I worked alongside many of them at the time.
You are just embarrassing yourself.
'''What is "disgusting" are ignorant fools braying their flatulent reckons about complex population health programmes based on talkback and anecdata.''
What would you know?
'The case for reduced screening ages for equity is not at all in doubt.''
Can you read? I have written this to Grafton Gully.
''Look, I'm not going to argue the toss with you. We both have different opinions on this issue. Your comment makes complete sense from the medical treatment perspective.''
What about Pakeha, Sacha?
They'll just have to try pot luck, eh? Let em die in the gutter. They can afford a decent funeral. You make me puke.
By the way, I wonder who on average would be taking better care of their health – 50 year old Pakeha, or 50 year old Maori.
You have no trouble consigning fellow Nzers to a possible death sentence because of your racism.
''You are just embarrassing yourself.''
I don't mind embarrassing myself if it means I'm not a racist like you.
Oh, here's a gift from talkback radio. Who knows it could work for bowel cancer?
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/05/health/rectal-cancer-checkpoint-inhibitor.html
One of the he worst forms of racism is when one resists and rejects any attempts at dealing with racism with the absurd argument that this would amount to reverse-racism. In effect, these are racism apologists and they continue to propagate racism.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reverse_racism
If you keep up these unhinged absurd attacks on others who call out your ignorance you will receive a ban.
''One of the he worst forms of racism is when one resists and rejects any attempts at dealing with racism with the absurd argument that this would amount to reverse-racism.''
But that is predicated on our health system being racist towards Maori. I have told you my experiences GENERALLY show otherwise if you meet doctors half way. You have only offered studies and other peoples opinions.
And if all these Maori don't like our general health system, why aren't they enrolling themselves at Hauora Maori health services? Something doesn't gel. Sure they may still have to use public health services, but most general care would be done in a holistic Maori way.
''In effect, these are racism apologists and they continue to propagate racism.''
The problem here is a definition of this situation. You are focused on supposed racism around medical treatment Maori receive. But Maori get lush funding across a variety of sectors, including health.
I'm taking a global approach. You cannot have this two tier system and expect our nation not to divide and a backlash to ensue. It just isn't possible.
Have you not learnt from South Africa, Rhodesia, tribalism in Africa etc. These are paths we are going down and you seem quite happy with that.
''If you keep up these unhinged absurd attacks on others who call out your ignorance you will receive a ban.''
How can it be an unhinged attack when we are throwing fellow NZers under the bus? That's a fact. I point this out and you want to ban me.
You missed the point again. I offered you a Table with barriers, which is what you asked for, and then you reject it because it doesn’t align with your own limited experience and you start bleating again about what happened when your aunty hurt her toe.
So, I gave you one paper that included 18 years of research in this area based on numerous accounts and individual experiences and you retort with “supposed racism”!? You’re in denial about anything that you cannot see in your yard and supermarket. You’re as blind as a bat, Blade. And you think you know best because only your account matters or matters most.
Whether or not Māori “get”, whatever that means, lush funding is not the point. The point is whether any funding, targeted or not, reaches them and has appositive impact on outcomes for them. The overwhelming evidence so far tells us this is not happening. This is the difference between inequality and inequity.
You can take whatever approach you like because it will be to no avail. There’s already a 2-tier system in NZ, which is called health inequities, so you don’t have to go look afar and can stay close to home.
The unhinged attack was on another commenter, which is bannable offence here. But you already know that.
''Whether or not Māori “get”, whatever that means.''
How about ''receive''?
''The point is whether any funding, targeted or not, reaches them and has appositive impact on outcomes for them. The overwhelming evidence so far tells us this is not happening. This is the difference between inequality and inequity.''
Do you realise what you are saying? You are saying millions is going down the gurgler, some to Maori health providers, with little impact on Maori health outcomes.
'''This is the difference between inequality and inequity.''
I'm sorry. To my way of thinking this is incompetence and poor accounting. Heads should roll.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300591643/budget-2022-mori-health-receives-299m-from-multibillion-health-spend
''You can take whatever approach you like because it will be to no avail. There’s already a 2-tier system in NZ, which is called health inequities, so you don’t have to go look afar and can stay close to home.''
OK, here's the bottom line for you in my opinion. You won't hear this from anyone else on this blog:
" This coming election will be about race. And National will win barring a disaster that allows Jacinda to shine. But it will be just the beginning because National won't get on top of crime. And they won't have the balls to force change that makes Maori more accountable for individual health outcomes. The country will part along race lines even though to an outsider things will look normal. Mixed partnership relationships will go through hell, and schools will become off limits for many. Personal safety will be at risk every time you leave your property. That's the way I see it if you want to keep doing down this path of inequality and inequity.
In fact the split is starting already in urban areas.
No idea, because I don’t know whom you’re talking about and as far as I know you’ve made it all up in your head – without some back-up evidence we cannot listen & check for ourselves. You fail at this time and time again. I also note that simple questions are often meaningless because they’re often based in ignorance & bias. A good interviewer guides the interviewee(s) to build, explain, and argue their case rather than going for lazy cheap point-scoring inter-rupting talking-over gotcha’s to confirm the bias of their listener-base and bosst their show's ratings (and their ego, of course).
Nope, you flounder, in the technical stuff, which you then use as an excuse to reject and ignore the findings even though they came from well-researched studies over 18 years including 372 participants. WTF is an 'objective answer' anyway?
If you had opened your mind and taken a little of your time to read the linked paper you would have seen that your own anecdotal experience might fit in well with that of others, for example:
I note that you appear to have very low levels of respect for others whom you dislike and prone to using your fists.
Table 3 of the linked paper was easy enough to take in without all the techno lingo, but you found an excuse to even ignore that even though you asked for it!?
There are none so blind as those who will not see. Your conclusions are flawed and weak, your views are therefore flawed and distorted (aka biased) and it shows in almost every comment you make – debating with you is an exercise in utter futility, as others have already found out and you keep confirming fo us time and time again.
I think we can't communicate because you have to run everything through your ideological filter, and then you accuse me of basically the same thing. Who knows, we may both have a point.
I have stated I will now take notes re talkback. Anything I repeat from talkback will now be time stamped if possible.
''I note that you appear to have very low levels of respect for others whom you dislike and prone to using your fists.''
Crikey, have you seen some of the replies to me on this blog lately? I can post a few if you like. Prone to using my fists? That's not true. Where do you get that perception from?
So , I have sat at my key board thinking how I could sum my views up in as few words as possible to save the tit for tat:
''Maori are the authors of most negative experiences they encounter in our health system. Their ignorance, in many cases, reinforces the behaviour of already bigoted health professionals. Other fair minded health professionals are driven towards racist attitudes by the abuse they receive from Maori. That leads to most Maori copping negative outcomes when engaging with our health system.''
Interesting thesis. What would my ‘ideology’ be, in this context? Perhaps fact-based reasoning leads to better debating outcomes and is more likely to produce a discernible truth or interpretation of reality that is mutually agreeable?
You refuse to back up your assertions and claims of fact, your explanations leave much to the imagination and a lot to be desired, and you write off any counter evidence and counter-arguments when they don’t feel right to you. In other words, yours is the ‘ideology’ of a troll.
Your idiosyncratic disrespect is ubiquitous and omnipresent. You only seem to have respect for talk-back and Raptor Squad. And you brag about knocking out others.
Your views are rigid and set in stone. You have not taken in one thing from a simple Table about Barriers to health experienced by Māori patients and their whanau and keep reverting back to your own narrow-minded views and self-limited anecdotal experience.
You almost tick all the stereotypical boxes of a RWNJ listening to shock-jocks on talk-back. Some would argue that we should listen to and engage with people such as you. I’d say that this appears to be an utter waste of time and you’re just a huge distraction here and a megaphone for RWNJ noise & nuisance.
What would my ‘ideology’ be, in this context?
There is no context. You are a Leftie and everything goes through the same filter. Unless I have you pegged wrong and you are to the Right of politics but have a liberal social justice view?
Perhaps fact-based reasoning leads to better debating outcomes and is more likely to produce a discernible truth or interpretation of reality that is mutually agreeable?
Debating facts is one thing. Understanding trends is another. Notice as a general rule how I'm half a step ahead of what will break in the news, or on this blog, as a item of interest? For example at the time of you banning me for a month
You’re throwing around lazy labels and bumper stickers to see what might stick. No substance whatsoever, just another excuse for you to continue your inane and mostly unsupported comments here. My ‘ideology’ or ‘filter’ have got nothing to with your comments.
A trend based on what? On feels from talk-back? You understand very little of what you read here, elsewhere, or what you hear on talk-back and you cannot construct a decent argument. You lack understanding and your spoiler is feels and ‘psychic imprints’ laced with ‘paramagnetism’.
You’re so far behind that you think you’re ahead and the rest of us are catching up with you. Please bail out gracefully.
Some dolts just will not listen. I take it this one has a history?
He’s certainly making history here, in a Trumpian sense.
He certainly does.
This reply should not have been posted.
*Blade…11 June 2022 at 7:01 pm
What would my ‘ideology’ be, in this context?
You need to have a lie down, son.
When isn't the health system under pressure in winter, and in the first winter of a one in one hundred year pandemic? If rich prick boomers would stop dodging buying rentals and dodging tax for five seconds, the health system might have a fighting chance.
Crime seems acute right now but we have assimilated a lot of people on the edges of society (from Australia) in the last two years. It's what responsible countries do.
Bowel cancer screening targeted to those at high risk? Well, blow me down, that seems sensible to me considering the limited resources we have.
Using attendance stats right now, again in the middle of a one in one hundred year pandemic, is not helpful. Everyone is asked to stay at home if symptoms are present. Also, families are cautious about bringing Covid into vulnerable, multigenerational households. This is sensible right now but our behaviour will adjust as we slowly return to what was considered normal.
You are catastrophising, for political purposes.
''If rich prick boomers would stop dodging buying rentals and dodging tax for five seconds, the health system might have a fighting chance.''
We call that the nutty Left. These types of weird nebulous synapse connections in SOME lefties has always intrigued me.
That would be like the raving right then, who say things like "removing the top rate of tax doesn't help the rich".
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/dramatic-footage-of-15-person-karangahape-rd-brawl-in-auckland-released-by-police/YBHHZHGYV5KYNHTQENWNFGVIF4/
6 yrs ago
I its pretty much same old same old, just the results of years of oppression and unfortunately it will take a lot more years to reverse and I believe with Luxon at the helm it never will.
I believe your a prison officer, in a position better than most too see the situation and my question to you is how many of your clients would be there if they had had a dad to get them plum job at unilever : ( 3rd biggest plastic polluter i read yesterday)
" They know the longer Luxon is in the media limelight, the more his incompetence and religious fundamentalism will be exposed "
Yeah that has been proven to not be a vote loser after all Key's bullshit and dubious claims they still voted for him and the other deplorables in 2008 , 2011 and 2014.
There seems to be this belief that New Zealand voters will see through a dismal opposition Nasty Natz leader……they don't ! the worse they are the more votes they get.
You can always rely on the hobbits to vote to vote for their own demise ..present leadership accepted of course.
Can't see any reason for Labour to call a snap election.
NZ voters, traditionally, don't like them; incumbent governments don't do well.
And, on current polling, it would very much be a toss up, if the left won (and would be a coalition Labour/Green possibly TPM, rather than the outright majority they currently have).
They'd also effectively junk all of the legislation they have in train (even if they won, it would be a politically new ballgame over 'government' legislation).
It would also be bitterly opposed by the majority of the Labour list MPs – at high risk of losing seats.
Really, not a valid choice. What could Labour possibly gain?
And, who would think that Ardern would be so politically naive?
Agreed Bella…itsnotgonnahappen.
" NZ voters, traditionally, don't like them; incumbent governments don't do well "
Helen just did fine in the winter election of July 27 2002 , she maintained her majority, the first since Muldoon's scnapps election in 1984 after getting a canning in the right wing media for asking the G.G for a dissolution when the Alliance collapsed and was going to have problems passing legislation in the house.
Now LINO would be hard pressed to gain a majority but MMP can deliver some unusual results.
Have a look at the opinion polls, directly after the snap election was announced. Labour went from a positive polling result (against an unprecedentedly weak right wing) of over 50%, to an election night result of just over 40%.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2002_New_Zealand_general_election#Graphical_summary
A lot of that support went to the centrist United (Peter Dunne) party & to Peter’s NZ First (see Swordfish’s excellent analysis, below)
Really, centre NZ doesn't like snap elections. Which are always (so far) perceived as electioneering by the Government.
There's a very strong argument, that Clark would have done much better to wait until the 'official' election date in Oct/Nov. She could very easily have eaten a bit of humble pie and gone to the Greens for confidence and supply for the next 4 months – if she, indeed, needed to – it's highly unlikely that the other parties would have formed a coalition against her (I mean, can you envisage Alliance and Green MPs voting in the House with National?). And there is, in any case, little significant legislation usually passed in the 4 months leading up to an election. As it was, many voters just saw this as electioneering – and her hoping to turn the (then) high Labour support into an outright majority.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002_New_Zealand_general_election
" Have a look at the opinion polls, directly after the snap election was announced "
I don't need to I was around at the time and well remember the polling numbers. Its hard to see her keeping those numbers before the early election announcement as her thinking was going to the country on October 6th 2002 but went three months early and a some loss of polling support was going to occur.
She was always going to face a split in the vote on the right due to the catastrophic collapse of the National party and it made no difference when the election was.
She was still returned with an increased majority on 1999 hardly a failure.
As for swordfish I always appreciate your in depth analysis as it helps contributors like Belladonna with factual information.
She was in with a chance of an absolute majority. Dropped signifiantly in the polls (10%+ is a significant change). Had to negotiate with Dunne & Peters.
Even you said: "Some loss of polling was going to occur"
Yes, that's the point, as I said, NZ centrist voters don't like snap elections. Labour won in 2020. There is a very strong argument that they would have had a greater majority if Clark hadn't called a snap election.
Like Swordfish, I provide facts and links — you just provide 'reckons'.
" She was in with a chance of an absolute majority "
In with a chance but not guaranteed !! Exactly she was never going to get a majority in a right wing media , business environment and when people had a chance to focus on the issues the date of the election was soon forgotten about.
I just provide " recons " and you just provide " what ifs "
The date of the election as she said herself and many people who held an opinion was that they had made up their minds by polling day and returned the Labour party in significant numbers that opportunists like Dunne and Peters came to the table to negotiate with Clark not English and despite the " early poll " the next government was a Labour led one in a MMP parliament.
Once again, no links – just your opinion, entirely unsupported by facts.
Surprisingly (not) you agree with Swordfish, but disagree with me. Newsflash! We're saying the same thing.
Newsflash !!!
I disagreed about your argument regarding the early election announcement. Helen was never going to go into the general election that year whenever it was held with 52 % support.
Incumbent governments always drop some , a little some a lot depending on circumstances at the time.
Yes my opinion after watching and participating in election campaigns in this country since 1984.
Loss of support for calling an early election ….well to make you happy then some members of the electorate took offense ….but only the ones who never intended to vote for Clark -Cullen anyway.
Labour voters still came out in the middle of winter and voted ..Labour up from 39% in 1999 to 42% in July 2002 and delivered 52 seats
And do you also disagree with Swordfish?
No doubt, you believe that Ardern should call a snap election right now – because all those Labour voters from 2020 will be out in droves in the middle of winter to vote for her.
Meanwhile, in the real world….. the rest of us recognize that calling a snap election would be a losing proposition for the Government.
" No doubt, you believe that Ardern should call a snap election right now – because all those Labour voters from 2020 will be out in droves in the middle of winter to vote for her "
No when you decide to go to the country you weigh up all possible scenarios including a pandemic.
2020 and a majority was down to the fear the electorate was expercining regarding the pandemic and the governments approach.
This is 2022 not 2002 in case you lost track of time.
I have never suggested that this diversion of a snap election which is just nonsense would need to be called now. The government still has a majority to pass laws ( the one's they choose to ) and has the numbers on the select committees unlike 2002.
Meanwhile, in the real world….
Yeah come and join us Bella …Donna
The New Zealand public don't really seem to go for parties calling snap elections. The only 2 recent ones, 1984 and 2002, didn't really work out to well for the party that called them.
For example, in 2002, Labour dropped from about 52% to 41% in the month before election day. Those people all seem to have swung to NZF (up from 3.8% to 10.4%) and United (up from nothing to 6.7%). That was certainly not what Helen Clark expected I suspect.
I used to know Jack Marshall. He once commented that the only effect of calling a snap election in 1951 was that National had 8 years in power instead of 9.
If Labour tried to call a snap election this year I suspect they would be hammered by the electorate. There is no excuse to do it except the hope that they can scrape back in for another term before their support goes far below having any hope. I really don't think that the public, or the Maori caucus, would go for it. Grab what you can while you can is more likely and they will hold on until the end of November 2023 before going to the Polls.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2002_New_Zealand_general_election#Party_vote
.
Probably more complex than that. The New Zealand Election Study Campaign Flow-of-the-Vote data suggests easily the largest swing away from Labour during the campaign was, in fact, into non-voting. Almost a quarter of those expressing an intention to vote Labour when the 2002 campaign commenced ultimately stayed at home. Which was considered extraordinary at the time.
The 2nd greatest 2002 campaign defection from Labour was indeed to NZF (but far, far behind the move into non-voting), followed by those switching from Labour-to-National (yep, even though the Nats fell to their 21% nadir, a Lab-to-Nat swing still occurred) … and then, in 4th place (in terms of Lab campaign defections) Labour-to-United.
NZF's campaign surge certainly came largely (though not exclusively) courtesy of erstwhile Labour voters … but United's sudden boost appears to have come fairly equally from previously-intending Labour & National voters.
Reason ?: A Question of Gates
The NZES found Paintergate & Wormgate did the lion's share of damage to Labour support during the 02 campaign …
… (although it's certainly also true that Clark's decision to call a Snap Election in the first place proved unpopular with the electorate … and her stated desire for single party government was deemed arrogant by many according to polling … so these provided a kind of background context that probably slightly loosened the attachment of a segment of intending Labour voters, putting them up for grabs once Paintergate & Wormgate reared their less-than-pretty heads).
The fallout from Corngate (including the Left looking divided) appears to have only played a secondary role in Labour's plunge (ie overshadowed by the other -gates)
Paintergate saw Clark lose credibility with a hefty segment of erstwhile Labour intenders on what were her strongest attributes – trustworthiness & competence – & therefore she took a clear hit in her Preferred PM rating (which NZES was measuring on a daily basis throughout the campaign).
Whereas Wormgate provided those centrist / swinging voters who were intially intending to vote Labour with a (suddenly new) viable alternative (United), closer to their broad policy preferences.
In the dying few days, however, Clark did manage to recover a little of the lost ground (Labour had fallen toward the mid-to-late 30s by the start of the final week) & she recovered all of Preferred PM rating … demonstrating, as in the 1996 campaign, her ability to rise to the occasion at pivotal moments (although, of course, only a very partial Party Vote recovery).
If Labour tried to call a snap election this year I suspect they would be hammered by the electorate.
Yes once the corporate media run with " paintergates and other distractions designed to erode public credibility.
Funny how one of the biggest scandals in recent history was Key's henchmen involved in a concerted effort to destroy the reputations of their opposition opponents and whale oils participation in attacking and destroying people's reputations and a black ops being run out of the PMs office yet unlike " painter gate " Key escaped unscathed.
Friends in the corporate media are good friends to have ..they are fearful of you and want to keep their jobs. Money talks as well. Key made sure he cultivated the media.
I think the prospect of a snap election is very unlikely.
The possibility would be more likely if Labour was in a position to win at the moment, but felt the chances of winning were decreasing with the progress of time towards the election.
However, based on current polling, there is a good chance that Labour could lose in a snap election scenario. Especially since the voting public takes a fairly negative view of snap elections, especially if they are seen to be a cynical attempt to stay in power.
So, the logical thing to do would be to hang on and hope things turn around for them between now and the election.
So, unless there is some compelling reason for a snap election, such as half the Labour caucus resigning at once, then I just don't see it happening.
And in 12 months 3 Waters will be a distant memory and inflation will be under control.
Those two issues are the only things keeping National in the game currently. With them gone, Labour should ease back into office (perhaps with the support of the Greens)
That is what they will be hoping for I am sure.
3 Waters may or may not be an issue by then. But it does feed into a narrative that National will build on around similar issues, and will probably be part of a picture that National tries to paint about a government being out of touch and refusing to listen.
Inflation will be a much harder one to crack by then. We have had huge amounts of money printing going on within NZ that has fed into our own inflation. Plus we are importing inflation from other countries that have been doing the same.
The big problem for Labour is that any capacity to borrow and spend has already been borrowed and spent. So, any new spending they promise during their election campaign is going to feed into inflation issue. Something I am sure National will jump on gleefully.
I think you are being a bit optimistic about that James, I expect that inflation and co- governance/3 waters will still be front and centre in 12 months.
Perhaps? It's the only way they get re-elected.
Yes, though the old "Drum of Crime" is getting beaten.
Ardern is doing better and better every time she flies overseas.
But onshore it's like she's Lange 1986.
She is not having an affair, she is not an evangelical mess with destructive mates.
" But onshore it's like she's Lange 1986.
Yeah and he was up against James Bolger in the winter campaign of 1987 and returned to government on polling day August 15th.
Lange although suffering a bout of the flu was as sharp as a shard of glass and funny.
Jacinda is not funny or that sharp.
The Snap Election chatter shows that National have deployed their most powerful policy initiative: Wishful thinking.
A switched on media would have great fun mocking them mercilessly for it, but the freaks and monsters that dominate contemporary NZ media are part of the joke.
I well remember the fun that was had over the silliest remit ever passed at a Labour conference. Back in the 1970s someone wanted public servants to be banned from wearing shorts and roman sandals during the summer months. Instead they were to wear long shorts (below the knee) knee length socks and shoes. The cartoonists, comedians, McPhail and Gadsby had a ball.
I suspect a Labour official with an S.o.H. let the remit go to conference.
Wasn't that featured on an episode of "Gliding On"? I seem to recall there was something like that.
I recall a couple of TV skits but they were independent of any TV productions. The "Gliding On" series was among the best comedy produced in NZ. The characters came across as so realistic. I think they are all dead now.
It was a great NZ production. I remember that government minister Mike Moore made a cameo appearance in one episode. They don't make comedy like that anymore.
Anne those were the days..lol
A snap election, now?
National must have been listening to that old sixties Burt Bacharach song "Wishing and Hoping".
A government with a majority on its own in an MMP parliament, half way through a term and with a full legislative book of things to do does not go for a snap election.
+1 Mike the Lefty
There are two arguments on this.
If you truly believe Labours polling will improve over the next 12 months, then yes, you should wait and hold a general election next year.
But on the other hand, if you believe Labour will continue to lose support over the next 12 months, then an early election would be their best bet.
For me, I don't see Labours polling improving anytime soon. I believe the rot has set in, inflation will hit near on 10% and the war on Ukraine will continue unabated. Add to this that the media and public in general are far more hostile towards parties of the left lately, covid fatigue has set in, and brand Ardern is becoming more toxic, I don't see how people can be optimistic about our future prospects.
What policies or future outlook are people seeing that makes them confident that Labours fortunes will turn?
That sounds like wishful thinking on your part MickeyBoyle
Desperate would describe Hooton and Prebbles. Looks like the right wing see Jacinda as the road block to National gaining power. Hooten & Prebbles know a snap election is not even on the cards. This is just dirty politics.
What policies or future outlook do National have?
In what way has "Brand Ardern" become toxic?
Do you have a crystal ball to know with 100% certainty, what will happen over the next 12 months?
Baseless rumours of impending resignation etc put out by right wingers is not new
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2021/11/prime-minister-jacinda-ardern-says-she-s-in-it-for-a-long-time-not-a-good-time.html
''Looks like the right wing see Jacinda as the road block to National gaining power.''
Allow me to correct you, Louis. National used to see Jacinda as a road block to gaining power. She could do no wrong. The mushy middle vote loved her. The world sung her praises. But that shine has tainted; a grey patina is all that's left. She is now a National Party asset, along with Robbo Hood and Kris Faafoi.
What policies or future outlook do National have?
Here's one. It's completely inadequate but better than nothing.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/national-party-favours-non-consorting-laws-to-disrupt-gangs-from-the-inside-out/QFJXAHQDYZEEIB7CCCTUCTQ2T4/
Your opinion isn't a correction.
Obviously the right wing still see Jacinda as a threat.
Is that all you've got Blade?
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-17/anti-consorting-laws-wont-stop-bikie-violence-in-canberra/10908048
''Your opinion isn't a correction.''
Well, what would I know. I'm just a simple man.
Is that all you've got Blade?
You asked a question. I stumped up a link. And this commentary:
''Here's one. It's completely inadequate but better than nothing.''
It appears you don't know much Blade and it is a nothing.
https://twitter.com/ClintVSmith/status/1535430697334509568
How is a gang defined?
Could the NATZ be a gang?
imo dv, yes!!
Good question.
Here is one go at defining "gang":
Robbing from the poor to give to the rich is one quality (eg Lowering taxes, cutting public services, etc.. )
Strong leadership….. ??
Formalized rules…… ✅
common identifying symbols and graffiti ……..
Yep! All the hall marks
Probably not, but gangs could start using political party logos as patches if they wanted to rub it in.
Nice one Craig!!!!
It seems you have a problem with comprehension. But I won't take it further. At the end of the day it will be of no importance because Labour won’t be the government.
Oh, this may be a reason. While Rome burned, Poto and Labour were to busy doing a Marco. Gadflying with shades on…what what!
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2022/06/auckland-gang-wars-more-shooting-incidents-overnight-across-four-suburbs.html
I don't have a problem with comprehension, but it appears you may though Blade.
To add to that, the tax policies are basically the 2017 policies reheated.
“ and brand Adern is becoming more toxic”
that’s assuming her brand was toxic in the first place. If you really want an experience head to the toxic wasteland that is Kiwi Blog or the Heralds comments section.
It was for the likes of Blade that certain European royalty adopted the motto Honi soit qui mal y pense.
Other way around, I think. It's virtually too late for a snap election to capitalise on Labour in a lead position – that boat has sailed.
It would only result in them losing power a year early (as I said above, even if they won it would be as a 2- or 3-way coalition – rather than the outright majority they have now)
So, lots of pain, little or no gain.
However, if they wait, there is the hope that 3 waters will have settled, inflation will be more under control, and the various building/development programmes they have underway will have had a chance to show some real benefits.
I wouldn't be confident or even optimistic that this will happen, but there is always the chance.
"Events, dear boy, events"
Harold Macmillan
Yeah, that's what worries me. Jacinda has been blessed with disasters. That's when she's at her best. And I would be guttered if the gods gave her another disaster in 2023. Something like an earthquake, terrorist attack on the Sky Tower or China attacking Taiwan. Kiwi voters are so thick they would look at her managing another disaster and think: 'This woman deserves another go.'' Groan!
"guttered" = in the gutter (or extinguished, in the sense of a candle guttering out)
"gutted" = deeply upset.
Correct. Doesn't worry me which one is used. I would feel the same either way.
Or in the vernacular of the current youth….guts
If someone, anyone, could step up with a roadmap to solve the obvious problems we have it wouldnt matter whether he, she or they was tattooed from arsehole to breakfast time or had no dress sense or was eccentric, whatever…if they could offer more than waffly criticism and convince me they had a plan to address our problems I'd vote for them tomorrow ….we can all, myself included itemise the problems, the leadership we need has to outline a convincing solution…where are they?