This brighter future

Written By: - Date published: 9:19 am, March 24th, 2012 - 33 comments
Categories: Economy - Tags:

Growth in the December quarter was 0.3%, a third of the government’s PREFU forecast.

Quarterly GDP per capita, $95/96
Peak, Q4 2007 8,104
When Nats took power, Q3 2008 7,935
Now, Q4 2011 7,777
Brighter Future any day now

Anyone else find it odd that GDP per capita has fallen as much during the ‘aggressive recovery’ as it did during the recession?

Anyone else getting the feeling that John Key isn’t the economic genius he makes out?

33 comments on “This brighter future”

  1. ghostwhowalksnz 1

    Expect Key and English to brush the poor numbers away with half baked explanations.

    What they cant explain is, there is no oven

    There is no cake tin

    There are no ingredients.

    What we get instead is a constantly changing menu of plans/proposals/goals

  2. Draco T Bastard 2

    Anyone else find it odd that GDP per capita has fallen as much during the ‘aggressive recovery’ as it did during the recession?

    Nope, RWNJ economics will always bring about a recession as it removes money from economy and gives it to rich pricks.

    Anyone else getting the feeling that John Key isn’t the economic genius he makes out?

    He’s a financier and financiers know less about economics than the economists and they wouldn’t know an economy if they tripped over one.

  3. Roaring out of the recession… and into a depression.

  4. Colonial Viper 4

    Wait until a shooting war starts in the Straits of Hormuz, and rising petrol prices take another $10/week bite out of ordinary families’ discretionary incomes.

    And a wee rise in mortgage interest rates taking another $20/week bite.

    IN FACT

    Mr Henderson, what was CPI and inflation for that quarter? Once you take that into account, did GDP grow at all?

    • Draco T Bastard 4.1

      Mr Henderson, what was CPI and inflation for that quarter? Once you take that into account, did GDP grow at all?

      Yeah, had been wondering if the numbers were real or nominal myself.

      • JH 4.1.1

        they’re real. Real GDP is expressed in 95/96 dollars. Which is getting a bit silly now – nominal GDP is $200b but in the real series its $140b.

        • Colonial Viper 4.1.1.1

          Thanks JH. And what about real GDP per capita? What was NZ population growth that quarter? Because my suspicion is that taking population growth in to account, GDP may have even been negative.

  5. AAMC 5

    Yeah, clearly they’re crap, and under Labour we wouldn’t have had the tax cuts, but other than that… milder Austerity same neo-classical underpinnings and same global conditions; Eurozone, prospects of hard landing in China, high oil prices, Australia slowing, unraveling of the global ponzi scheme.

    So if we’re honest, we are in a very slightly worse position as a byproduct of Nats incompetence, but only just.

    • Tc 5.1

      neither would we have the level of corporate welfare (SCF etc) the gutting of housing and other essential services, screwing over akl and asset sales on the blocks.

      Debt wouldn’t be anywhere like we have under the Nats and we’d have revenue producing assets being kept as well as a balanced approach to the recovery with R&D and better focus on public transport to offset peak oil …..try harder next time, I’m sure you can.

      I’ll leave off the table the screwing over of broadband, education, ETS, RMA, environment, your rights and other shonkey legislation passed without appropriate care that will have to be corrected by future governments.

      • Macro 5.1.1

        Well yeah – as AAMC says – we would be slightly better off.
        I don’t think AAMC supports Nat – OR National Lite.
        We could be substantially better off if we were to have a far more equitable economy – but I don’t see that as the vision for Labour. It’s all “softly softly catchie monkey”! That’s never going to work.

      • AAMC 5.1.2

        Yeah, as I said, we would be slightly better off ( substantially for those in the firing line ) but, we’d still be deluded by neo-classical economics and passively rather than overtly acquiescing to American and Chinese Imperialism.

        Be honest next time, it’s Labour who need to try harder.

        I listened to Shearer speak at the Port march a couple of weeks ago…

        We need a new politics, the Cold War is over, we have bigger fish to fry.

  6. Ant 6

    Don’t sweat it, we’ll just innovate a NZ version of Apple and then we can all be software engineers and product designers on BIG MONEY.

    • ghostwhowalksnz 6.1

      Its not sustainable, I d only give Apple another 5 years.
      Kodak lasted 75 yrs , IBM had 50 yrs , Microsoft 20 yrs, Nokia 15.

      Its getting shorter as technology changes faster

      • Colonial Viper 6.1.1

        IBM still exists, and is quite profitable. Same with Microsoft. IBM’s chip technology is still absolutely leading edge. Intel has been going for over 30 years now, and its profitability rocks.

        Apple has tens of billions of cash reserves. It could not sell another iPad or iPod in the next 5 years and still be one of the richest companies in the world. In fact today, Apple is richer than many minor countries.

        Remember, whenever financial sustainability of a corporate is at risk, survival is only one tax payer funded capitalist bail out away.

      • infused 6.1.2

        How’s how out of touch you are.

  7. http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/saturday

    I think her time line may be a tad long, but this has got to be one of the most truthful moments on New Zealand radio, apart from the time pips. Nicole doesn’t get that NZs infrastructure is dependent on ‘coal powered’ factories around the world for the ‘wingdings’ that keep our electricity grid functioning. And the grid is falling to bits anyway ie 1/3 capacity than it once had across Cook Straight. Nearly every machine in New Zealand is dependent on spare parts from overseas. We are all in the same boat. R

    Nicole Foss: global finance and peak oil

    Peak oil and the economy Senior editor of TheAutomaticEarth.org, which chronicles and interprets the ongoing credit crunch, and former editor of The Oil Drum Canada, where she wrote on peak oil and finance. She is an international speaker on energy and global finance and is touring New Zealand until 22 April. (48′28″)
    Download: Ogg Vorbis MP3 | Embed

    Peak economy is well and truly over

    • Draco T Bastard 7.1

      Nearly every machine in New Zealand is dependent on spare parts from overseas.

      True, but it doesn’t have to be. We’re quite capable of making those parts ourselves from our own resources. It does mean that we will have to be more frugal with how we use those resources (we really do need to stop exporting) but will be able to maintain industrialism here because we do have those resources.

      • Robert Atack 7.1.1

        I’m just not convinced we can maintain a lot of stuff for very long, could New Zealand manufacture silver contact point thingies in switches? The grid must be very computer dependent?
        How long is the life span of the wire? They upped the energy flowing through one of the haywards lines a few years ago, has that shortened its life? Have you seen the gear a linesmen truck has?
        I guess you know China is in control of the global rare earth supply (magnates).
        No8 wire will kick in for a rural ‘she’ll be right’ lifestyle, but sending electricity up and down the country is going to get harder.
        They say expect the next 100 years to reflect the last 100, I think it might be more the next ten years will see ‘us’ at 1900 – 1880 life style.
        But I will be real happy if I am wrong.

        • Draco T Bastard 7.1.1.1

          …could New Zealand manufacture silver contact point thingies in switches?

          Not sure of the availability of silver in NZ, I suppose we could always use gold instead.

          The grid must be very computer dependent?

          Um, so? We can make those too. Rakon and others probably have the expertise to develop the manufacturing process if we don’t already have it.

          How long is the life span of the wire?

          Just so long as it is known and we have a plan to replace it from local resources, who cares? It’s a question of knowing what resources we have and then deciding, as a community, where we’ll use them.

          They say expect the next 100 years to reflect the last 100

          Only if it’s faster but not as fast, or as far, as you think. Depends upon the technology. We can maintain computers but there’s no way we could maintain any cars. We’ll still have trains but they’ll be electric and not diesel or coal. Cities will have to collapse inwards and go upwards as low density cities are just too expensive to maintain.

        • JH 7.1.1.2

          but it does come down to choices, eh? Say we had to make things our selves with less energy and less efficiently – do we cut the healthcare and education for kids and investment in domestic energy infrastructure or the rugby world cups and V8 races and luxuries for the elite?

          As a society, where we expend our productive capacity – subject to technical limits – is within our hands. Do we spread the wealth and use it to build a better country or concentrate it in the hands of the elite?

          For the past 25 years the latter has been the answer, but don’t forget that for the previous two centuries the trend was in the opposite direction. It’s our choice how we divide up a shrinking cake – it is possible to have enough for everyone, if we choose it.

    • RedLogix 7.2

      Listened to it ourselves and were very impressed not only at her mastery of the topic, but the fact that she had done her homework on New Zealand’s specific aspects.

      And she had Kim Hill (whose no slouch) scrambling to keep up.

    • mouse 7.3

      Thanks for the link Robert.

  8. james 111 8

    Would have been interesting to see how well Labour would do in a world wide economic recession , compounded by the Canterbury earthquakes Not so good again all they know how to do is Tax ,Tax ,and more tax. As well as add another 44,000 pen pushers in the public service You cant do that in times of recession.

    I think we would be in deep shite if Labour was in as they dont have any sense on how to grow ,and economy at all unless they create a false housing boom that hurts everyone in the end.

    • ScottGN 8.1

      “A false housing boom that hurt’s everyone in the end.” Isn’t that exactly what Key was blathering on about earlier this week? The inference being that it was one of his measures of success. In contradiction to his Finance Minister.

    • Colonial Viper 8.2

      all they know how to do is Tax ,Tax ,and more tax. As well as add another 44,000 pen pushers in the public service You cant do that in times of recession.

      1) If you don’t tax a dollar, then you have to borrow the dollar from China. Which is what Key and English are doing.

      2) Sure you can add another 44,000 teachers, hospital workers, doctors, family counsellors, special needs educators, firemen and police, defence personnel. Especially during a recession. It gives people jobs and puts money back into communities.

      You’re a dickhead james.

      Only you and your neoliberal mates think that firing people into a recession is the answer. Economic loser, the lot of ya.

      • james 111 8.2.1

        No you sell off some of the 200 billion dollars wirth of assets that we have in New Zealand ,and keep a controlling interest. Labour plans as shown prior to the Election were borrowing more money than National so you were in agreement with borrowing more from China or where ever just because Labour were going to be in. Please tell me Viper how you think Labour would have grown the economy what marvelous plans they would have had in place from 2008 to 2011 after all they had left the cupboard bare as they knew they werent getting in? Can you hand on heart say the country would have been in a better place with Labour at the helm? after all they arent very good at making budget cuts they are just use to spending money with merry glee . I wont lower myself to personal insults like you

        • Colonial Viper 8.2.1.1

          Firing people into a recession and borrowing money to give tax cuts to your rich mates.

          That’s the formula you see with Tory governments all over the world, and its exactly what we see with the Conservative budget in the UK this week.

          Austerity for the poor, hand outs for the rich and for corporations.

          Please tell me Viper how you think Labour would have grown the economy what marvelous plans they would have had in place from 2008 to 2011 after all they had left the cupboard bare

          LOLOLOLOL “left the cupboard bare” fuck you and your kind for your endless repetitive lies and PR catchphrases

          Cullen gave English huge leeway by successfully positioning NZ so that we had no net public debt at the end of 9 years of Labour rule.

          Sadly, Labour does still believe in “economic growth”, so in this regard both National and Labour are just as bad.

          I wont lower myself to personal insults like you

          Regardless of my feelings today I’m already looking forwards to giving the NATs a good kicking in, 2014.

      • Fortran 8.2.2

        What proportion of the working population are actually tax positive.
        I understand that something like 40% of workers actually pay no income tax (ie ex GST).
        They get many “incentives” which gives them tax which has not been earned – eg WFF

    • Pascal's bookie 8.3

      So go on then Mr Counterfactual, give us an honest accounting of how you think we’d be looking if Brash had won in 05.

      Be honest now, and tell us what he would have done to stop the housing bubble, what his tax policies would have done to the crown accounts, and how his finance minister’s “we should be more like Ireland” daydreams might have worked out for us.

      take a care to take account of what you think the tax cuts would have done to the housing bubble, (Hint, we were leveraging ourselves to the hilt on mortgages), and what his other policies would have done to demand ( student loan repayments higher, no wff etc)

      Come on son, make a name for yourself.

    • ghostwhowalksnz 8.4

      “Tax tax and more tax “?

      Which party went into an election promising tax cuts and then reversed them, only to increase GST which they promised not to increase. And then borrowed $300 mill a week to pay for it all.

      Labour increased tax rates only for the top 5% – which they clearly spelt out in their election promises.

  9. gnomic 9

    The erstwhile smirking weasel (more recently scowling) and Minister of Tourism has never claimed to be an economic genius so far as I know. Any such claim would clearly be laughable.

    I thought the economic genius, if any, was supposedly Lord Joyce of Superministry, a man whose cosmic vision beggars the imagination of mere mortals. Alas, perhaps even he is a mere Ozymandias, king of kings.

    Isn’t the agenda more or less as follows:

    Smash the remnants of the state

    Smash the vestiges of organised labour

    Drill drill drill, mine mine mine, frack frack frack – you’d buy a used car from the member for Whangarei surely?

    Borrow and hope

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    Today is a Member's day, and David Seymour's End of Life Choice Bill continues its slow crawl through its committee stage. They're spending the whole day on it today, though the first hour is likely to be spent on voting left over from last time. After that they'll move on ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Flight to Los Angeles turned back after passengers decide they don’t want to go anymore
    An ambitious plan to fly to Los Angeles petered out into a brief sight-seeing trip and a desire to return home and get some sleep before work tomorrow. Air New Zealand has confirmed a flight to Los Angeles last night was turned back about a quarter of the way into ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    1 week ago
  • Indigenous Futures: defuturing and futuring – an analytical framework for policy development?
    There appears to be consensus – by omission – that the concept of indigenous futures should be accepted at face value. So I scavenged the internet to see if I could locate an academic descriptor or a framework around how we think about it as a concept, and whether it ...
    EllipsisterBy Ellipsister
    1 week ago
  • Cadbury rumoured to be releasing the Pineapple Trump
    Here’s another novelty chocolate to shove in your gob, New Zealand Cadbury could be seeking to make itself great again with a rumoured new release: Pineapple Trumps, a spin on its classic chocolate-encased pineapple treat and do-it-yourself tooth remover. The global confectionery manufacturer and bumbling “before” character in an infomercial, ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    1 week ago
  • The coming resource war.
    During my time in the Pentagon I had the privilege of sitting down with military leaders and defence and security officials from a variety of Latin American nations. Sometimes I was present as a subordinate assistant to a senior US defence department official, sometimes as part of a delegation that ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    1 week ago
  • Māori Language Week with The Civilian
    Kia ora, Aotearoa. It’s that magical time of year. Te Wiki o te Reo Māori. In English, the week that frightens talk radio. As you probably know by now, all your favourite media outlets are participating, some more successfully than others. Stuff has changed its name to Puna for the ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    1 week ago
  • Will Horizons act on climate change?
    Local body elections are coming up next month. And it looks like all Palmerston North candidates for Horizons (the Manawatu-Whanganui Regional Council) want to take action on climate change:Climate change is set to be a key issue in Palmerston North for the next three years if those wanting to get ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • BORA reform is stalled
    Eighteen months ago, the government promised to strengthen the Bill of Rights Act, by explicitly affirming the power of the courts to issue declarations of inconsistency and requiring Parliament to formally respond to them. So how's that going? I was curious, so I asked for all advice about the proposal. ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Corbyn and Brexit
    As the Brexit saga staggers on, the focus is naturally enough on the Prime Minister and his attempts to achieve Brexit “do or die”. But the role played by the Leader of the Opposition is of almost equal interest and complexity. The first problem for Jeremy Corbyn is that he ...
    Bryan GouldBy Bryan Gould
    1 week ago
  • A ditch for him to die in
    Last week, English Prime Minister Boris Johnson boldly declared that he would rather die be dead in a ditch than delay Brexit. Unfortunately for him, the UK parliament accepted the challenge, and promptly dug one for him. The "rebellion bill" requires him to ask for and secure yet another temporary ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Warning! Warning! Danger Jacinda Ardern! Danger Marama Davidson! Warning!
    Lost In Political Space: The most important takeaway from this latest Labour sexual assault scandal, which (if I may paraphrase Nixon’s White House counsel’s, John Dean’s, infamous description of Watergate) is “growing like a cancer” on the premiership, is the Labour Party organisation’s extraordinary professional paralysis in the face of ...
    1 week ago
  • Union solidarity with Ihumatao land occupation
    by Daphna Whitmore Every Sunday for the past two months unionists from First Union, with supporters from other unions, have set out to the Ihumatao land protest, put up gazebos and gas barbeques, and cooked food for a few hundred locals and supporters who have come from across the country. ...
    RedlineBy Daphna
    1 week ago
  • Climate Change: The wrong kind of trees?
    Newsroom today has an excellent, in-depth article on pine trees as carbon sinks. The TL;DR is that pine is really good at soaking up carbon, but people prefer far-less efficient native forests instead. Which is understandable, but there's two problems: firstly, we've pissed about so long on this problem that ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • No freedom of speech in Turkey
    Canan Kaftancioglu is a Turkish politician and member of the opposition Republican People's Party (CHP). Like most modern politicians, she tweets, and uses the platform to criticise the Turkish government. She has criticised them over the death of a 14-year-old boy who was hit by a tear gas grenade during ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Speaker: Tadhg Stopford: Why I’m standing for the ADHB
    Hi there, just call me Tim.We face tough problems, and I’d like to help, because there are solutions.An Auckand District Health Board member has nominated me for as a candidate for the ADHB, because her MS-related pain and fatigue is reduced with hemp products from Rotorua.  Nothing else helped her. If I ...
    1 week ago
  • Good little vassals
    The Inspector-General of Intelligence and Security has published their report on whether the SIS and GCSB had any complicity in American torture. And its damning. The pull quote is this:The Inquiry found both agencies, but to a much greater degree, the NZSIS, received many intelligence reports obtained from detainees who, ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Who Shall We Turn To When God, And Uncle Sam, Cease To Defend New Zealand?
    Bewhiskered Cassandra? Professor Hugh White’s chilling suggestion, advanced to select collections of academic, military and diplomatic Kiwi experts over the course of the past week, is that the assumptions upon which Australia and New Zealand have built their foreign affairs and defence policies for practically their entire histories – are ...
    1 week ago
  • The Politics of Opposition
    For most of the time I was a British MP, my party was out of government – these were the Thatcher years, when it was hard for anyone else to get a look-in. As a front-bencher and shadow minister, I became familiar with the strategies required in a parliamentary democracy ...
    Bryan GouldBy Bryan Gould
    1 week ago
  • More expert comments on the Canadian fluoride-IQ paper
    The Green et al (2019) fluoride/IQ is certainly controversial – as would be expected from its subject (see If at first you don’t succeed . . . statistical manipulation might help and Politics of science – making a silk purse out of a sow’s ear). Anti-fluoride campaigners have been actively promoting it ...
    1 week ago
  • The return to guerrilla war in Colombia
    by Gearóid Ó Loingsigh On August 29th a video in which veteran FARC (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia) commander Iván Márquez announced that they had taken up arms again was released. There was no delay in the reaction to it, from longtime Liberal Party figure and former president Uribe, for ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    1 week ago
  • Air New Zealand identifies this enormous plot of unused land as possible second airport site
    Air New Zealand couldn’t believe its luck that this seemingly ideal piece of real estate had so far gone entirely unnoticed. Air New Zealand’s search for a site to build a second Auckland Airport may have made a breakthrough this afternoon, after employees scanning Google satellite imagery spotted a huge, ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Redline on the Labour Party
    No-one on the anti-capitalist left in this country today puts forward a case that Labour is on the side of the working class.  There are certainly people who call themselves ‘socialist’ who do, but they are essentially liberals with vested interests in Labourism – often for career reasons. Nevertheless, there ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    2 weeks ago
  • New Fisk
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Labour’s failure
    When National was in government and fucking over the poor for the benefit of the rich, foodbanks were a growth industry. And now Labour is in charge, nothing has changed: A huge demand for emergency food parcels means the Auckland City Mission is struggling to prepare for the impending arrival ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Ardern attempts to vaccinate Clarke Gayford live on television to prove that it’s safe
    Gayford, pictured here on The Project, before things got wildly out of control. A bold public relations move by the Government to encourage parents to vaccinate their children has gone horribly wrong. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern appeared on tonight’s episode of Three’s The Project, where the plan was for her ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Has Mr. Whippy gone too far by parking on our front lawns?
    Mr. Whippy’s business model has driven it down a dark road of intimidation. Residents in major centres around the country are becoming disgruntled by the increasingly aggressive actions of purported ice cream company Mr. Whippy, who have taken to parking on people’s front lawns and doorsteps in a desperate attempt ...
    The CivilianBy admin
    2 weeks ago
  • Cleaning up the water
    Today the government released its Action Plan for Healthy Waterways, aimed at cleaning up our lakes and rivers. Its actually quite good. There will be protection for wetlands, better standards for swimming spots, a requirement for continuous improvement, and better standards for wastewater and stormwater. But most importantly, there's a ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Fronting up
    Today I appeared before the Environment Committee to give an oral submission on the Zero Carbon Bill. Over 1,500 people have asked to appear in person, so they've divided into subcommittees and are off touring the country, giving people a five minute slot each. The other submitters were a mixed ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Politics of science – making a silk purse out of a sow’s ear
    Anti-fluoride activists have some wealthy backers – they are erecting billboards misrepresenting the Canadian study on many New Zealand cities – and local authorities are ordering their removal because of their scaremongering. Many New Zealanders ...
    2 weeks ago

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