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This brighter future

Written By: - Date published: 9:19 am, March 24th, 2012 - 33 comments
Categories: Economy - Tags:

Growth in the December quarter was 0.3%, a third of the government’s PREFU forecast.

Quarterly GDP per capita, $95/96
Peak, Q4 2007 8,104
When Nats took power, Q3 2008 7,935
Now, Q4 2011 7,777
Brighter Future any day now

Anyone else find it odd that GDP per capita has fallen as much during the ‘aggressive recovery’ as it did during the recession?

Anyone else getting the feeling that John Key isn’t the economic genius he makes out?

33 comments on “This brighter future”

  1. ghostwhowalksnz 1

    Expect Key and English to brush the poor numbers away with half baked explanations.

    What they cant explain is, there is no oven

    There is no cake tin

    There are no ingredients.

    What we get instead is a constantly changing menu of plans/proposals/goals

  2. Draco T Bastard 2

    Anyone else find it odd that GDP per capita has fallen as much during the ‘aggressive recovery’ as it did during the recession?

    Nope, RWNJ economics will always bring about a recession as it removes money from economy and gives it to rich pricks.

    Anyone else getting the feeling that John Key isn’t the economic genius he makes out?

    He’s a financier and financiers know less about economics than the economists and they wouldn’t know an economy if they tripped over one.

  3. Roaring out of the recession… and into a depression.

  4. Colonial Viper 4

    Wait until a shooting war starts in the Straits of Hormuz, and rising petrol prices take another $10/week bite out of ordinary families’ discretionary incomes.

    And a wee rise in mortgage interest rates taking another $20/week bite.


    Mr Henderson, what was CPI and inflation for that quarter? Once you take that into account, did GDP grow at all?

    • Draco T Bastard 4.1

      Mr Henderson, what was CPI and inflation for that quarter? Once you take that into account, did GDP grow at all?

      Yeah, had been wondering if the numbers were real or nominal myself.

      • JH 4.1.1

        they’re real. Real GDP is expressed in 95/96 dollars. Which is getting a bit silly now – nominal GDP is $200b but in the real series its $140b.

        • Colonial Viper

          Thanks JH. And what about real GDP per capita? What was NZ population growth that quarter? Because my suspicion is that taking population growth in to account, GDP may have even been negative.

  5. AAMC 5

    Yeah, clearly they’re crap, and under Labour we wouldn’t have had the tax cuts, but other than that… milder Austerity same neo-classical underpinnings and same global conditions; Eurozone, prospects of hard landing in China, high oil prices, Australia slowing, unraveling of the global ponzi scheme.

    So if we’re honest, we are in a very slightly worse position as a byproduct of Nats incompetence, but only just.

    • Tc 5.1

      neither would we have the level of corporate welfare (SCF etc) the gutting of housing and other essential services, screwing over akl and asset sales on the blocks.

      Debt wouldn’t be anywhere like we have under the Nats and we’d have revenue producing assets being kept as well as a balanced approach to the recovery with R&D and better focus on public transport to offset peak oil …..try harder next time, I’m sure you can.

      I’ll leave off the table the screwing over of broadband, education, ETS, RMA, environment, your rights and other shonkey legislation passed without appropriate care that will have to be corrected by future governments.

      • Macro 5.1.1

        Well yeah – as AAMC says – we would be slightly better off.
        I don’t think AAMC supports Nat – OR National Lite.
        We could be substantially better off if we were to have a far more equitable economy – but I don’t see that as the vision for Labour. It’s all “softly softly catchie monkey”! That’s never going to work.

      • AAMC 5.1.2

        Yeah, as I said, we would be slightly better off ( substantially for those in the firing line ) but, we’d still be deluded by neo-classical economics and passively rather than overtly acquiescing to American and Chinese Imperialism.

        Be honest next time, it’s Labour who need to try harder.

        I listened to Shearer speak at the Port march a couple of weeks ago…

        We need a new politics, the Cold War is over, we have bigger fish to fry.

  6. Ant 6

    Don’t sweat it, we’ll just innovate a NZ version of Apple and then we can all be software engineers and product designers on BIG MONEY.

    • ghostwhowalksnz 6.1

      Its not sustainable, I d only give Apple another 5 years.
      Kodak lasted 75 yrs , IBM had 50 yrs , Microsoft 20 yrs, Nokia 15.

      Its getting shorter as technology changes faster

      • Colonial Viper 6.1.1

        IBM still exists, and is quite profitable. Same with Microsoft. IBM’s chip technology is still absolutely leading edge. Intel has been going for over 30 years now, and its profitability rocks.

        Apple has tens of billions of cash reserves. It could not sell another iPad or iPod in the next 5 years and still be one of the richest companies in the world. In fact today, Apple is richer than many minor countries.

        Remember, whenever financial sustainability of a corporate is at risk, survival is only one tax payer funded capitalist bail out away.

      • infused 6.1.2

        How’s how out of touch you are.

  7. http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/saturday

    I think her time line may be a tad long, but this has got to be one of the most truthful moments on New Zealand radio, apart from the time pips. Nicole doesn’t get that NZs infrastructure is dependent on ‘coal powered’ factories around the world for the ‘wingdings’ that keep our electricity grid functioning. And the grid is falling to bits anyway ie 1/3 capacity than it once had across Cook Straight. Nearly every machine in New Zealand is dependent on spare parts from overseas. We are all in the same boat. R

    Nicole Foss: global finance and peak oil

    Peak oil and the economy Senior editor of TheAutomaticEarth.org, which chronicles and interprets the ongoing credit crunch, and former editor of The Oil Drum Canada, where she wrote on peak oil and finance. She is an international speaker on energy and global finance and is touring New Zealand until 22 April. (48′28″)
    Download: Ogg Vorbis MP3 | Embed

    Peak economy is well and truly over

    • Draco T Bastard 7.1

      Nearly every machine in New Zealand is dependent on spare parts from overseas.

      True, but it doesn’t have to be. We’re quite capable of making those parts ourselves from our own resources. It does mean that we will have to be more frugal with how we use those resources (we really do need to stop exporting) but will be able to maintain industrialism here because we do have those resources.

      • Robert Atack 7.1.1

        I’m just not convinced we can maintain a lot of stuff for very long, could New Zealand manufacture silver contact point thingies in switches? The grid must be very computer dependent?
        How long is the life span of the wire? They upped the energy flowing through one of the haywards lines a few years ago, has that shortened its life? Have you seen the gear a linesmen truck has?
        I guess you know China is in control of the global rare earth supply (magnates).
        No8 wire will kick in for a rural ‘she’ll be right’ lifestyle, but sending electricity up and down the country is going to get harder.
        They say expect the next 100 years to reflect the last 100, I think it might be more the next ten years will see ‘us’ at 1900 – 1880 life style.
        But I will be real happy if I am wrong.

        • Draco T Bastard

          …could New Zealand manufacture silver contact point thingies in switches?

          Not sure of the availability of silver in NZ, I suppose we could always use gold instead.

          The grid must be very computer dependent?

          Um, so? We can make those too. Rakon and others probably have the expertise to develop the manufacturing process if we don’t already have it.

          How long is the life span of the wire?

          Just so long as it is known and we have a plan to replace it from local resources, who cares? It’s a question of knowing what resources we have and then deciding, as a community, where we’ll use them.

          They say expect the next 100 years to reflect the last 100

          Only if it’s faster but not as fast, or as far, as you think. Depends upon the technology. We can maintain computers but there’s no way we could maintain any cars. We’ll still have trains but they’ll be electric and not diesel or coal. Cities will have to collapse inwards and go upwards as low density cities are just too expensive to maintain.

        • JH

          but it does come down to choices, eh? Say we had to make things our selves with less energy and less efficiently – do we cut the healthcare and education for kids and investment in domestic energy infrastructure or the rugby world cups and V8 races and luxuries for the elite?

          As a society, where we expend our productive capacity – subject to technical limits – is within our hands. Do we spread the wealth and use it to build a better country or concentrate it in the hands of the elite?

          For the past 25 years the latter has been the answer, but don’t forget that for the previous two centuries the trend was in the opposite direction. It’s our choice how we divide up a shrinking cake – it is possible to have enough for everyone, if we choose it.

    • RedLogix 7.2

      Listened to it ourselves and were very impressed not only at her mastery of the topic, but the fact that she had done her homework on New Zealand’s specific aspects.

      And she had Kim Hill (whose no slouch) scrambling to keep up.

    • mouse 7.3

      Thanks for the link Robert.

  8. james 111 8

    Would have been interesting to see how well Labour would do in a world wide economic recession , compounded by the Canterbury earthquakes Not so good again all they know how to do is Tax ,Tax ,and more tax. As well as add another 44,000 pen pushers in the public service You cant do that in times of recession.

    I think we would be in deep shite if Labour was in as they dont have any sense on how to grow ,and economy at all unless they create a false housing boom that hurts everyone in the end.

    • ScottGN 8.1

      “A false housing boom that hurt’s everyone in the end.” Isn’t that exactly what Key was blathering on about earlier this week? The inference being that it was one of his measures of success. In contradiction to his Finance Minister.

    • Colonial Viper 8.2

      all they know how to do is Tax ,Tax ,and more tax. As well as add another 44,000 pen pushers in the public service You cant do that in times of recession.

      1) If you don’t tax a dollar, then you have to borrow the dollar from China. Which is what Key and English are doing.

      2) Sure you can add another 44,000 teachers, hospital workers, doctors, family counsellors, special needs educators, firemen and police, defence personnel. Especially during a recession. It gives people jobs and puts money back into communities.

      You’re a dickhead james.

      Only you and your neoliberal mates think that firing people into a recession is the answer. Economic loser, the lot of ya.

      • james 111 8.2.1

        No you sell off some of the 200 billion dollars wirth of assets that we have in New Zealand ,and keep a controlling interest. Labour plans as shown prior to the Election were borrowing more money than National so you were in agreement with borrowing more from China or where ever just because Labour were going to be in. Please tell me Viper how you think Labour would have grown the economy what marvelous plans they would have had in place from 2008 to 2011 after all they had left the cupboard bare as they knew they werent getting in? Can you hand on heart say the country would have been in a better place with Labour at the helm? after all they arent very good at making budget cuts they are just use to spending money with merry glee . I wont lower myself to personal insults like you

        • Colonial Viper

          Firing people into a recession and borrowing money to give tax cuts to your rich mates.

          That’s the formula you see with Tory governments all over the world, and its exactly what we see with the Conservative budget in the UK this week.

          Austerity for the poor, hand outs for the rich and for corporations.

          Please tell me Viper how you think Labour would have grown the economy what marvelous plans they would have had in place from 2008 to 2011 after all they had left the cupboard bare

          LOLOLOLOL “left the cupboard bare” fuck you and your kind for your endless repetitive lies and PR catchphrases

          Cullen gave English huge leeway by successfully positioning NZ so that we had no net public debt at the end of 9 years of Labour rule.

          Sadly, Labour does still believe in “economic growth”, so in this regard both National and Labour are just as bad.

          I wont lower myself to personal insults like you

          Regardless of my feelings today I’m already looking forwards to giving the NATs a good kicking in, 2014.

      • Fortran 8.2.2

        What proportion of the working population are actually tax positive.
        I understand that something like 40% of workers actually pay no income tax (ie ex GST).
        They get many “incentives” which gives them tax which has not been earned – eg WFF

    • Pascal's bookie 8.3

      So go on then Mr Counterfactual, give us an honest accounting of how you think we’d be looking if Brash had won in 05.

      Be honest now, and tell us what he would have done to stop the housing bubble, what his tax policies would have done to the crown accounts, and how his finance minister’s “we should be more like Ireland” daydreams might have worked out for us.

      take a care to take account of what you think the tax cuts would have done to the housing bubble, (Hint, we were leveraging ourselves to the hilt on mortgages), and what his other policies would have done to demand ( student loan repayments higher, no wff etc)

      Come on son, make a name for yourself.

    • ghostwhowalksnz 8.4

      “Tax tax and more tax “?

      Which party went into an election promising tax cuts and then reversed them, only to increase GST which they promised not to increase. And then borrowed $300 mill a week to pay for it all.

      Labour increased tax rates only for the top 5% – which they clearly spelt out in their election promises.

  9. gnomic 9

    The erstwhile smirking weasel (more recently scowling) and Minister of Tourism has never claimed to be an economic genius so far as I know. Any such claim would clearly be laughable.

    I thought the economic genius, if any, was supposedly Lord Joyce of Superministry, a man whose cosmic vision beggars the imagination of mere mortals. Alas, perhaps even he is a mere Ozymandias, king of kings.

    Isn’t the agenda more or less as follows:

    Smash the remnants of the state

    Smash the vestiges of organised labour

    Drill drill drill, mine mine mine, frack frack frack – you’d buy a used car from the member for Whangarei surely?

    Borrow and hope

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