Towards National Recovery

Written By: - Date published: 7:00 am, February 20th, 2023 - 42 comments
Categories: chris hipkins, disaster, economy, election 2023, elections, Environment, labour - Tags:

Just over seven months from the election the Labour government has been granted as great a political momentum as that leading into the 2020 election.

Labour now shows all signs of pulling out of the death-stall it was trapped within under Ardern, to pulling up into near-total media and political dominance. This in the course of less than a month from Hipkins’ swearing in.

From Budget 2023 likely in May, to election in October, is just 5 months.

The recovery plan and Budget 2023 set the course for the election campaign.

Cabinet now prepares for the rebuild of the northern half of New Zealand. The rebuild is according to Minister Woods larger than the Christchurch earthquake recovery over a decade ago. Direct state asset liabilities include damage to about 20% of the North Island’s road and bridge networks, rail network, telecommunication network, central electricity network, massive welfare increases, and civil defence costs. To pay for this rebuild, the export economy that provides a substantial part of the state income has been materially weakened with damage to about 60% of its pip fruit exports, and 10% of its dairy exports. Both of those would have been at peak production for export right now.

The entire National Land Transport Plan into which local governments have all put their regional bids will have to be drastically revised to enable this recovery.

EQC will receive claims that will hit the limit of what they are able to provide.

The above will have a material effect upon Budget 2023, into which submissions were supposed to close on January 29th just gone. Departmental bids are already in. The previous policy drivers of Budget 2023 were focused on:

  • Continuing to keep New Zealand safe from COVID-19
  • Laying the foundations for the future, including addressing key issues such as our climate change response, housing affordability, and
  • child poverty.

Even as bodies are still recovered and towns and families are reconnected to each other, Treasury will be figuring out new policy drivers to enable this scale of national emergency response. It is going to require a completely new budget.

This Budget reallocation for central government will also be mirrored in local government budgets out for consultation throughout the northern half of the North Island as they too seek to respond and rebuild to this declared national emergency.

Prime Minister Hipkins had already put the spade through some projects such as Auckland light rail, the RNZ-TVNZ merger, and worker unemployment insurance. Expect the 2nd Waitemata Crossing plan to also be iced. Minister Wood has said that other projects included water infrastructure especially stormwater. He has said there needed to be “better coordination between transport, council, and water agencies about stormwater …”. That was before Gabrielle.

If I were to speculate I’d say that out of this will emerge a single national water entity asset owner and operator with a Board that includes Maori representation. Just like the centralisation of health and tertiary training. The state is not yet strong enough to withstand shocks of this magnitude, but it is the only public entity capable of growing such strength. This will be reflected in water governance.

Minister of Finance Grant Robertson is holding the ship as steady as he can as this budget reprioritisation is underway, noting that Core Crown tax revenue was .7% below forecast at $54.5 billion with core Crown expenses at .7% above forecast at $60.5 billion. Net debt is 21.6% of GDP, roughly the same as forecast, yet interest repayments are now ever-growing.

But none of the big bills have arrived yet, and they are going to come in fast. Anyone who thinks this isn’t a graver test of the entire collective strength of the state and far greater than COVIDs, is fooling themselves.

Even before Cyclone Gabrielle, the OECD was predicting New Zealand would be in economic stagnation.

Businesses surveyed by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand expect that the economy will basically stop, with an average of .79% growth for 2023. That’s down from an expectation of 1.27% for the year just 3 months ago.

Economic growth expectations help banks prepare capital, businesses prepare for consumer demand and for their own investment and employment planning, and help IRD predict the kind of tax take they could get. It is a dire forecast.

Let’s remind ourselves of the big spend areas from Budget 2022 to get a sense of what might need reallocation.

One 2022 budget highlight was the leftovers from the $61.6 billion COVID-19 response fund (CRRF). Most of this has been reallocated already for urgent public health needs.

It had also allocated $10.9 billion over 5 years to the NZ SuperFund. It’s very hard to see that standing uncut this year.

It had allocated $777m in capital allocation for fixing up schools. Whatever is at this moment not signed with construction contracts is going to get reallocated northwards.

One should expect a wholesale reallocation of budget priorities in road and rail transport as well, unless the construction contracts are already signed.

Cabinet has already killed off the unspent portion of the $2.9 billion allocated out of the Climate Emergency Response Fund to help change our cars, and likely it will drain this fund dry to pay for the recovery.

The great big sucking sound you hear is New Zealand’s 3 million people from Hastings northward pulling in every public dollar in the country not yet nailed down with a signed contract.

There will be a question to answer for the rebuild about how much Minister Robertson is prepared to go into debt and how much he will reallocate from existing Departmental expenditure. There’s not much point subsidising the national ballet when your school, town, and hospital care need actual rebuilding.

There will be no tax cuts. There is no electoral mood for tax increases. There will be higher public bills and lower public income. There will be more public debt.

Government has but 3 months in which the Prime Minister and Cabinet have to form, prioritise and cost a complete recovery for New Zealand’s worst disaster since World War 2. This is on top of what was already the Year Of The Long Grind.

The entire budget is going to change. Robertson will propose this as a great field of calm to disguise a very painful public sector reprioritisation, in order that the rebuild gets underway fast and no matter what the national cost.

As with 2020, the 2023 recovery plan and the budget to make it happen will dominate the 2 months to budget and the further 5 months of election 2023.

The plan will be huge, the budgetary changes will be huge, and on both rest the fate of several million New Zealanders trying to recover their lives, and the future political direction of New Zealand through to 2026.

42 comments on “Towards National Recovery ”

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  1. Ghostwhowalksnz 1
    20 February 2023 at 8:37 am

    I dont think the recovery/rebuild cost is larger than Canterbury earthquakes as claimed. Robertson was talking about a $10-12 bill cost . Canterbury was a $40 bill all up cost covered by insurance and of course not all losses were.

    The electricity network is only minor damage in terms of the whole country , but localised its bad but likely can be mostly fixed for urban areas this week . Longer term resilience will be needed

    Those who think the river flood control is a Three Waters area just dont understand , its 3 waters not 4. Essentially your pluvial suburban floods come into that not the fluvial or river ones.

    Even architects misunderstand what suburban stormwater systems do , at a certain level of rainfall ( above the 5% annual probability, or 1 in 20 yr ) its working properly to run down the street or over your backyard .

    https://www.newsroom.co.nz/lose-that-driveway-and-rethink-the-back-yard

    This is the Auckland Council flood sensitive areas ( 'flood plains' ) design standard

    2.1.1 Activities within flood-sensitive areas
    1.Vulnerable activities in flood-sensitive areas:

    a.finished floor levels of buildings must be at least 500mm above the 1 per cent AEP flood level.

    2.Less vulnerable activities in flood sensitive areas

    a.finished floor levels of buildings must be at least 300mm above the 1 per cent AEP flood level.

    Older suburbs didnt have these standards , maybe not so high but were often built on better land anyway.

    But like the pandemic it seems the media and online are full of instant experts, ignore them

    • Ad 1.1
      20 February 2023 at 9:22 am

      Probably too early to claim about the comparative scale of the impact vis a vis Christchurch. But Hipkins is already flagging wholesale scale of budget reallocation this morning.

      Building back any network for greater resilience than current design always requires massive cost increases and redesign.

      Very hard to see flood level design standards staying the same after this, because clearly they didn't work.

      • Ghostwhowalksnz 1.1.1
        20 February 2023 at 9:30 am

        For most suburban development , they 'did work'. I noticed the Te Awa more recent subdivision on outskirts of Napier, it appears completely flooded but a closer look at the aerial photo seems to show the streets and front lawns flooded but the houses just above it.

        • Ad 1.1.1.1
          20 February 2023 at 10:16 am

          That's selection of one image to make a claim. You know it was bigger than that.

          Just pause before stating that everything in planning worked, and reflect on what didn't.

          • Ghostwhowalksnz 1.1.1.1.1
            21 February 2023 at 11:19 am

            Obviously the newer subdivision Te Awa was my focus, but seems the same approach was used in above area from 70s and 80?. Streets and front and back yards flood but house floor levels arent supposed to.

            For many reasons this approach wasnt used at all in the 50s and 60s areas such as Maraenui, Onekawa etc. The Nelson park area created in 20s-30 also has flooding issues

            If you dont want to built on former estuary or land with flooding risk , then Napier would be the same size as Wairoa town. ( 3-4k) Can you see now why your approach is beyond what a reasonable person would suggest.

            And to me clearly you dont understand even the basics but dismissive of 'how its done' and throw slurs rather than asking what the floor levels would rise for future climate change

        • Sanctuary 1.1.1.2
          20 February 2023 at 10:26 am

          You bizarre attempt at flannel is complete nonsense.

          I was born and raised in Napier and I have considerable family and social ties to the region. This is a catastrophe; fussing over a photograph with a magnifying glass in order to cherry pick some information to satisfy an anally retentive desire to do nothing about climate change is idiotic.

          What is relevant is a discussion of the barely concealed and systemic culture of cronyism and neo-corruption of local councils in relation to approvals for property development in unsuitable areas.

          The lackadasical attitudes to proper separation of power in decision making and general regard for ethical and proprietary behaviour in local government have evolved in an atmosphere of unaccountable Laissez–faire greed, fed by the economic challenges faced by regional New Zealand, the death of local media oversight and a complete failure of democracy which has allowed local government to be captured by highly sectional class interests who can operate their informal networks of nod and wink favouritism with impunity.

          The upshot is flooding in Napier which, if overlaid with a map of the city prior to the uplift of the 1931 earthquake, accurately mirrors the old lagoons and swamps. Those areas needed draining to become properly dry, and rely on drainage schemes and pumping stations to keep dry. Yet somehow, someone got permission to build a new housing estate in what was, in my youth, a semi-swamp in Te Awa. In an era of climate change and acknowledged sea level rise. Think about that. And one keeps thinking about the poor inhabitants of the flooded developments in Puketapu, off Swamp road… You'd think there was a clue in the name.

          • Shanreagh 1.1.1.2.1
            20 February 2023 at 12:37 pm

            Totally agree. Born in Wairoa, lived in Napier for 4 years. The building on low lying land and indeed land raised up by the 1931 earthquake has always given me pause.

            This building on silty, unstable land seems to have run amok in the last 10-15 years. When I was last there 4 years ago I was appalled at the building in these areas and especially up the Esk valley which is an area of well known flooding for many, many years.

            I am not sure how this building was allowed to start/continue. Surely Councils look at soil maps, climate maps? Clearly Councils have been chasing the mighty dollar by encouraging more and more people to settle there and to spread out.

            Around the airport they had pumps going 24/7 and always have.

            The upshot is flooding in Napier which, if overlaid with a map of the city prior to the uplift of the 1931 earthquake, accurately mirrors the old lagoons and swamps. Those areas needed draining to become properly dry, and rely on drainage schemes and pumping stations to keep dry.

            Crazy.

            But what do we do?

            I think realistic managed retreats could be a start.
            Looking carefully at soil maps and climate data is a must.
            Perhaps also a careful rereading of various fairy stories and biblical stories could be useful too…you know the ones about building on sand!

            • Sanctuary 1.1.1.2.1.1
              20 February 2023 at 1:58 pm

              Napier's baby boomer pram suburbs – Onekawa, Pirimai, parts of Taradale, Maraenui – flooded something chronic when they were first built back in the early 1960s. The built the suburbs then put in the big cross country drainage scheme, which was a pretty cack handed way of doing it. When I was a kid we had a flood most years!

              No one was dumb enough to build on even lower lying land, which is why there was a golf course put there.

              • Ghostwhowalksnz …
                21 February 2023 at 11:07 am

                So your vague ideas from living there as a kid on land development are fine but someone who did it for a living and can give information about how the house floor levels are worked out to be above a possible flood is smeared with an insult.?

                These would be the current rules and they worked in new subdivision I highlighted.

                I dont have specific knowledge river control methods like on those areas like Esk valley where the river left its banks on a large scale, so left that out. Its a different problem with different answers

                Future flood levels will be based on future climate trends, Im not knowledgeable on what those might be but instead of using the current 1% ocurrence or 1 in 100yr use the current 1 in 200yr instead

          • Ghostwhowalksnz 1.1.1.2.2
            20 February 2023 at 4:25 pm

            You arent the only one who was born ( Wairoa) and grew up in ( Taradale) hawkes Bay

            You clearly have no civil engineering expertise, just another motor mouth who doesnt have expertise to look at photos and work out what has happened.

            Who said we dont have to do anything climate change ? Im saying the design standards we have are working. Others can decide on older areas and their solutions and any changes in future design standards.

            We had these self appointed experts like Sanctuary in this situation during the pandemic, 'because masks or vaccines arent perfect' lets not do anything.

            Youre an uninformed fool and anyone who listens to your spiel is also.

            • Tony Veitch 1.1.1.2.2.1
              20 February 2023 at 4:55 pm

              When you lack a coherent argument, (apart from subtle covert climate change denial) attack the messenger!

              • Ghostwhowalksnz …
                21 February 2023 at 10:51 am

                The personal insult came from Sanctuary was defamatory

                ' to satisfy an anally retentive desire to do nothing about climate change is idiotic.'

                Try to read what was actually said first before hoping in.

            • Shanreagh 1.1.1.2.2.2
              20 February 2023 at 6:45 pm

              So you agree with building on fragile uplifted former swampy seabed soil? All good?

              Engineering can hold everything at bay?

              I don't actually go along with this.

              I feel we will find that ignoring basic geography such as soil and climate data, not to mention EQ data is/will be at our cost.

              It is much the same scenario as is playing out in Auckland where we have played fast & loose on flood plains, on steeper hilly unstable country.

              Not every single piece of land is able to be build on and not every single piece of land ought to be built on.

              As I said I was truly appalled when I saw the urban sprawl of Napier when I went back 4 years ago…….

              • Ghostwhowalksnz …
                21 February 2023 at 10:57 am

                All of Napier apart from small hill suburbs ( landslide risk) is on uplifted land. So thats 50k people that already live on it

                The railway line was the edge of the original shingle bank and ground just below Bluff Hill.

                Most your claims are wrong too as you dont consider the drainage works undertaken , including diverting the river away.

                Think of the Netherlands my friend

                • Incognito …
                  21 February 2023 at 11:09 am

                  Think of the Netherlands my friend

                  Nothing came to [my] mind instantly so I looked it up, but couldn’t really find much on Wikipedia either!? Unless you mean dikes …

                  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flood_control_in_the_Netherlands#Control_of_river_floods

                • Shanreagh …
                  21 February 2023 at 12:07 pm

                  I am well aware of where the uplifted land is, where Bluff Hill is etc.

                  My roots are deep into HB.

                  My view is that we do not need to spread out ie sprawl.

                  Where the choice is between intensification and building on former salt a sensible idea would be intensification.

                  The pictures you have shown with the roads in the new subdivisions flooded bears out that roads can act as rivers, harbour all sorts of germs from mixed stormwater and sewage etc.

                  I am sure that Insurance Companies will see this as flood prone land and they would be right.

                  What is the problem with a managed retreat, better intensification. So a city with a smaller footprint but with houses etc on the more stable areas?

                  Why do we want to be the Netherlands of the south? If we do want to aim for flooded areas why not aim to be like Venice – the gondolas are special, the food is better, the gondoliers sing while they work….

                  Reading Incognito’s link I find the last paragraph is telling
                  ‘Global warming in the 21st century might result in a rise in sea level which could overwhelm the measures the Netherlands has taken to control floods. The Room for the River project allows for periodic flooding of indefensible lands. In such regions residents have been removed to higher ground, some of which has been raised above anticipated flood levels’

                  Venice is suffering from sea level rises and sinking

                  Managed retreat plus ‘Spongy cities’ seem to offer our best bet
                  https://climatechampions.unfccc.int/what-are-sponge-cities-and-how-can-they-prevent-floods/

                  https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/the-front-page-sponge-cities-could-this-approach-help-nz-weather-climate-change/ZQ246RZXLVDBDNV2M7SZ36JY3Y/

            • Shanreagh 1.1.1.2.2.3
              20 February 2023 at 6:54 pm

              I thought we were supposed to be adults and able to discuss things.

              I am reporting your last sentence.

  2. lprent 2
    20 February 2023 at 8:47 am

    What is also clear is that the EQC levy rates need to increase. They were in 2022/3 budgeted to be

    Toka Tū Ake levies: $597 million

    But they started from a negative retained earnings of 1,686,928 million when you include a book-keeping capitalised reverses of 1,500,000 million.

    In other words EQC was effectively broke outside of current revenues. The fund still hasn't recovered from the ChCh earthquakes.

    The fund should have raised levies after 2011 a lot faster than they actually did, with the significant raises only arriving in 2019 and 2022 after a review of EQC in 2018 by Dame Silvia Cartwright.

    Basically National were doing their usual short-term thinking (now so well epitomised by Luxon) after the ChCh earthquakes and not funding the EQC. So it will be somewhat useless as a buffer against the household and businesses insurance costs this time around.

    • Ghostwhowalksnz 2.1
      20 February 2023 at 9:33 am

      Agree with that . But EQC pays considerable yearly premiums to 'reinsure' for the big disasters ( worth some billions) and also pays a lump sum ($20 mill ?)to Treasury yearly for the Government guarantee side – so its a form of reinsurance of last resort.

      • lprent 2.1.1
        20 February 2023 at 4:41 pm

        The reinsurance will kick in. But it doesn't look to me like it will be adequate either for private insurance or government backed.

        A major issue is that the cost of property and the building material has been escalating much faster than the premiums. They only just raised the max residential EQC cover to 300k.

        Which is about half of the price of my one bedroom Auckland apartment, about a third of the price of virtually all housing I seriously looked at last year, and a quarter of the price of any new house or apartment with more than one bedroom.

        20 million seems rather low. 20 rebuilds a year?

        • Ghostwhowalksnz 2.1.1.1
          21 February 2023 at 11:27 am

          The EQC cap is only a floor after which the private insurance kicks in ( what you must have to get EQC anyway )

          So your house or flat that is worth double -triple that in Auckland is covered up to the level you have as the rebuild value is these days mentioned in policy….and adjusted every year.

          Also remember EQC/private insurance doesnt cover the land value which say for Auckland and most other places is half the total QV value at least that the councils use.

          The purpose is to rebuilt on existing site if its a total loss many will just need major or minor repairs

  3. Sanctuary 3
    20 February 2023 at 8:58 am

    The recent flooding in Eskdale echoes the 1938 event, which occurred when sea temperatures around NZ were about 1 degree higher than average. 1938 also saw catastrophic flooding in California, and these 2023 NZ flooding events also have a parallel flooding event in California

    Since we are currently experiencing a "marine heatwave" in NZ with up to 2 degrees above average, it is frightening to imagine these types of cyclonic flood events could become annual events if a 2c sea temperature rise is bedded in.

  4. Ghostwhowalksnz 4
    20 February 2023 at 10:11 am

    The above Napier street flooding is an older area thats not too bad but Marewa and Maraenui are 1950s-1960s areas are usually very bad . Thats near the course of the old Tutaekuri river which was relocated from there after the 1931 earthquake.

    This is the newer Te Awa subdivision ( notice the dark roofs !)

    • Shanreagh 4.1
      20 February 2023 at 12:43 pm

      And the point?

      If it is messing around with building on known areas of instability I would agree with you.

      The spread of cities is always a concern to me. Compact cities have advantages in terms of utilities, public transport etc,

      Coming from HB/Gisborne/East Coast areas I have always been aware of how fragile the place is.

      • Ghostwhowalksnz 4.1.1
        20 February 2023 at 4:08 pm

        The point is modern designs for subdivisions worked. When you come from HB you might already know there isnt any land available that doesnt have some risk. The whole Meeanee areas is a no go , and great for horticulture as is Pakowhai area.

        • Shanreagh 4.1.1.1
          20 February 2023 at 7:03 pm

          Do they have to go some where? The modern way is to work within the city boundaries. There is plenty of scope to intensify residential land use closer in to the city centre. Not every body wants or needs to have a house on 1/4 or 1/3 of an acre.

          We know that the places of uplift after the 1931 earthquake should be looked at extremely carefully before building is allowed. At least that is what I thought was happening ……

          We have seemingly uncontrolled urban sprawl now and the rest of NZ will be paying the price either directly through taxes or indirectly through increased insurance premiums.

          Perhaps Napier could strive to be a model for a small scale size constrained city.

          • Ghostwhowalksnz 4.1.1.1.1
            21 February 2023 at 11:34 am

            The street in Taradale we lived in now has double the density from infill housing. A few doors away was a small orchard, thats now housing. The vineyards that was once McDonalds now Church Rd have mostly moved further out

            The Te Awa subdivision is much less land per house site compared to the bigger sites originally in Nelson Park, Onekawa etc.

            Higher density housing such as 3-4 levels again is very difficult without razing many areas as infill gets a push back form existing residents. They have a community too

          • weka 4.1.1.1.2
            21 February 2023 at 12:31 pm

            Not every body wants or needs to have a house on 1/4 or 1/3 of an acre.

            They might not want that area, but they do need it. One of the best ways to mitigate climate and increase resiliency is to relocalise food. That means as much food as possible needs to be grown were it is eaten,

            • No/low transport emissions
            • renegerative ag/hort (rebuild soil fertility so it is sustainable without having to import artificial or organic inputs from other ecosystems
            • less waste
            • increase in biodiversity including essential insects
            • increase in the cooling effect of plants and trees
            • slows and absorbs water in big rain events, leading to less flooding
            • keeps people connected to nature, leading to better mental health, and more care for the land

            The people living on the quarter acre don't have to be the people that grow the food, tend to the plants and animals.

            Meanwhile, if we remove those spaces, and infill them we get these,

            • less food resiliency
            • more heat from concrete
            • more need for transport emissions
            • decrease in biodiversity including essential insects
            • increase in flooding
            • worsening mental health in humans.
            • less care for the earth

            But where will all the people go?! We don't have a shortage of space in NZ. The idea that we have to constrain people in cities is based in old thinking around infrastructure and perpetual growth economies. There are other ways of organising things.

  5. Dean Reynolds 5
    20 February 2023 at 2:52 pm

    As the article says, net government debt is 21.6% of GDP, an absurdly low figure by OECD standards – Australia's metric is c 48%.

    This means that the government has a huge capacity to borrow long term at low, sovereign rates of interest so that we can actually build back better & not do our usual half arsed, band aid projects, eg. the Chch rebuild.

    It also gives the government an ideal opportunity to reinstate the Ministry of Works & Development as the lead contractor for the rebuilds – parasites like Fulton Hogan can operate as sub contractors to the Ministry.

    • RosieLee 5.1
      20 February 2023 at 3:31 pm

      Parasites like FH can FO.

    • PsyclingLeft.Always 5.2
      20 February 2023 at 3:44 pm

      Absolutely ! Get to it Labour !

    • Ghostwhowalksnz 5.3
      20 February 2023 at 4:17 pm

      Net Debt is the the misleading phrase . Its used by credit rating agencies who calculate [gross debt – government funds] , that for NZ thats ACC, Cullen Fund and EQC ( mostly gone)

      ACC funds ($45 bill) are allocated for their claimants . The Cullen Fund $60 bill is allocated for pre pay superannuation for elderly

      So we can see $105 bill is government wealth funds , but already allocated

      Gross Debt , is what has to be repaid ( often recycled into more borrowing) and its what the taxpayer pays interest on every year

      It seems that NZ Gross debt ( this time last year) is $130 bill and 'total borrowing' ? is $219 bill is not such a little amount that you might think

      link

      • Dean Reynolds 5.3.1
        20 February 2023 at 7:02 pm

        Ghost, even if gross government debt is 30% of GDP it's still amongst the lowest in the OECD. If government debt rose to 40% of GDP, (still manageable) it would release billions to eliminate poverty, homelessness, infrastucture deficit, etc.

        Obsessing about government debt plays into the hands of the neolibs – they're always screaming their tits off over government debt, in order to keep government as small as possible & look where that's got us over the last 35 years!

        Let's break out of the small minded, small government debt mentality & borrow whatever the hell we need to give evrey kiwi a dignified living standard.

        • Ghostwhowalksnz 5.3.1.1
          21 February 2023 at 10:48 am

          You could well be right . But Im wondering about what Treasury calls 'other borrowing' that almost doubles it again

          The problem with using nett debt I have noticed is that as it falls ( during the Key years the stock market boom for NZSF and ACC) many think the government debt was being paid down.

          When Key-English never paid down a cent , gross debt grew from $20 bill to $90 bill and the Key fan club including some senior business types thought it was being paid pack !

          best to ignore the 'nett debt' number completely ( only credit agencies care about it) and it does matter when interest rates rise as its like pensions, beneficiary payments etc an obligation that must be paid . Many other government spending is discretionary

  6. Shanreagh 6
    20 February 2023 at 7:10 pm

    Obsessing about government debt plays into the hands of the neolibs – they're always screaming their tits off over government debt, in order to keep government as small as possible & look where that's got us over the last 35 years!

    Let's break out of the small minded, small government debt mentality & borrow whatever the hell we need to give evrey kiwi a dignified living standard.

    I agree with these sentiments. I feel we have a bit of room to move to borrow to rebuild back better, with conditions about constraining urban sprawl and intensifying land use on land for housing.

    In the 'olden days' we used to call the huge areas of new subdivisions 'nappy valley', sterile environments without a spread of age groups, where there were no shops, everyone had to have a car or three to survive.

  7. pat 7
    20 February 2023 at 7:13 pm

    " There is no electoral mood for tax increases."

    That would depend entirely on where they land….as ever. There may well be electoral support for tax increases …provided they impact a minority.

  8. Shanreagh 8
    20 February 2023 at 7:53 pm

    This report from Stuff, with Carmeron Bagrie, reads very sensibly.

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/300809902/rebuilding-from-gabrielle-cheapest-is-not-always-best–do-the-goddamn-thing-properly

    From the article…..

    'Do we have a number on this at the moment? The answer is no. I suspect that is ultimately going to be a very, very big number because I think it's going to be a big catalyst for change,” he says.

    Doing the same thing over and over, expecting a different result is not an option.

    “It's a wake-up call. The old model has just not worked,” he says.

    “We need to learn to manage living with climate change and managing the risks around it. What we're seeing globally is there is a big push now in security – security in things like food, energy, technology.”

    In essence, New Zealand must shift from a ‘she’ll be right, do things just in time’ model, to one that anticipates there will be massive climate events and says “just in case, we're going to do this”.

    • Thinker 8.1
      21 February 2023 at 2:10 pm

      And I think the talk is that this time, anticipating further climate change in the future, we won't just be cleaning up the mess and filling in the cracks. We will be looking at whether this or that road will flood again each year and maybe it's cheaper to build the road somewhere else.

      Of course, that's the appropriate way to think but it won't come cheap.

      • weka 8.1.1
        21 February 2023 at 2:29 pm

        more likely is eventually we can't afford to replace or rebuild the road.

        I've been arguing all day with dudes saying we can adapt without mitigation. It's an absolute nonsense.

        • Maurice 8.1.1.1
          22 February 2023 at 12:50 am

          But if we do not do any mitigation we will be forced to adapt to existing with the resulting mess ….

          • weka 8.1.1.1.1
            22 February 2023 at 10:38 am

            I don't know what that means.

            Adaptation and mitigation are basically the same thing in transition terms. It's not about treating GHGs as some isolate thing, it's about understanding the systems that are driving us towards climate and ecological collapse and changing those while we still have time.

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  • Anzac Commemorative Address, Buttes New British Cemetery Belgium
    Ambassador Millar, Burgemeester, Vandepitte, Excellencies, military representatives, distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen – good morning and welcome to this sacred Anzac Day dawn service.  It is an honour to be here on behalf of the Government and people of New Zealand at Buttes New British Cemetery, Polygon Wood – a deeply ...
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    2 hours ago

  • Anzac Commemorative Address – NZ National Service, Chunuk Bair
    Distinguished guests -   It is an honour to return once again to this site which, as the resting place for so many of our war-dead, has become a sacred place for generations of New Zealanders.   Our presence here and at the other special spaces of Gallipoli is made ...
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    20 hours ago

  • Anzac Commemorative Address – Dawn Service, Gallipoli, Türkiye
    Mai ia tawhiti pamamao, te moana nui a Kiwa, kua tae whakaiti mai matou, ki to koutou papa whenua. No koutou te tapuwae, no matou te tapuwae, kua honoa pumautia.   Ko nga toa kua hinga nei, o te Waipounamu, o te Ika a Maui, he okioki tahi me o ...
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    1 day ago

  • PM announces changes to portfolios
    Paul Goldsmith will take on responsibility for the Media and Communications portfolio, while Louise Upston will pick up the Disability Issues portfolio, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon announced today. “Our Government is relentlessly focused on getting New Zealand back on track. As issues change in prominence, I plan to adjust Ministerial ...
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    2 days ago

  • New catch limits for unique fishery areas
    Recreational catch limits will be reduced in areas of Fiordland and the Chatham Islands to help keep those fisheries healthy and sustainable, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. The lower recreational daily catch limits for a range of finfish and shellfish species caught in the Fiordland Marine Area and ...
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    2 days ago

  • Minister welcomes hydrogen milestone
    Energy Minister Simeon Brown has welcomed an important milestone in New Zealand’s hydrogen future, with the opening of the country’s first network of hydrogen refuelling stations in Wiri. “I want to congratulate the team at Hiringa Energy and its partners K one W one (K1W1), Mitsui & Co New Zealand ...
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    3 days ago

  • Urgent changes to system through first RMA Amendment Bill
    The coalition Government is delivering on its commitment to improve resource management laws and give greater certainty to consent applicants, with a Bill to amend the Resource Management Act (RMA) expected to be introduced to Parliament next month. RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop has today outlined the first RMA Amendment ...
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    3 days ago

  • Overseas decommissioning models considered
    Overseas models for regulating the oil and gas sector, including their decommissioning regimes, are being carefully scrutinised as a potential template for New Zealand’s own sector, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. The Coalition Government is focused on rebuilding investor confidence in New Zealand’s energy sector as it looks to strengthen ...
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    3 days ago

  • Release of North Island Severe Weather Event Inquiry
    Emergency Management and Recovery Minister Mark Mitchell has today released the Report of the Government Inquiry into the response to the North Island Severe Weather Events. “The report shows that New Zealand’s emergency management system is not fit-for-purpose and there are some significant gaps we need to address,” Mr Mitchell ...
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    3 days ago

  • Justice Minister to attend Human Rights Council
    Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith is today travelling to Europe where he’ll update the United Nations Human Rights Council on the Government’s work to restore law and order.  “Attending the Universal Periodic Review in Geneva provides us with an opportunity to present New Zealand’s human rights progress, priorities, and challenges, while ...
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    4 days ago

  • Patterson reopens world’s largest wool scouring facility
    Associate Agriculture Minister, Mark Patterson, formally reopened the world’s largest wool processing facility today in Awatoto, Napier, following a $50 million rebuild and refurbishment project. “The reopening of this facility will significantly lift the economic opportunities available to New Zealand’s wool sector, which already accounts for 20 per cent of ...
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    4 days ago

  • Speech to the Southland Otago Regional Engineering Collective Summit, 18 April 2024
    Hon Andrew Bayly, Minister for Small Business and Manufacturing  At the Southland Otago Regional Engineering Collective (SOREC) Summit, 18 April, Dunedin    Ngā mihi nui, Ko Andrew Bayly aho, Ko Whanganui aho    Good Afternoon and thank you for inviting me to open your summit today.    I am delighted ...
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    4 days ago

  • Government to introduce revised Three Strikes law
    The Government is delivering on its commitment to bring back the Three Strikes legislation, Associate Justice Minister Nicole McKee announced today. “Our Government is committed to restoring law and order and enforcing appropriate consequences on criminals. We are making it clear that repeat serious violent or sexual offending is not ...
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    4 days ago

  • New diplomatic appointments
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters has today announced four new diplomatic appointments for New Zealand’s overseas missions.   “Our diplomats have a vital role in maintaining and protecting New Zealand’s interests around the world,” Mr Peters says.    “I am pleased to announce the appointment of these senior diplomats from the ...
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    4 days ago

  • Humanitarian support for Ethiopia and Somalia
    New Zealand is contributing NZ$7 million to support communities affected by severe food insecurity and other urgent humanitarian needs in Ethiopia and Somalia, Foreign Minister Rt Hon Winston Peters announced today.   “Over 21 million people are in need of humanitarian assistance across Ethiopia, with a further 6.9 million people ...
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    4 days ago

  • Arts Minister congratulates Mataaho Collective
    Minister for Arts, Culture and Heritage Paul Goldsmith is congratulating Mataaho Collective for winning the Golden Lion for best participant in the main exhibition at the Venice Biennale. "Congratulations to the Mataaho Collective for winning one of the world's most prestigious art prizes at the Venice Biennale.  “It is good ...
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    5 days ago

  • Supporting better financial outcomes for Kiwis
    The Government is reforming financial services to improve access to home loans and other lending, and strengthen customer protections, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly and Housing Minister Chris Bishop announced today. “Our coalition Government is committed to rebuilding the economy and making life simpler by cutting red tape. We are ...
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    5 days ago

  • Trade relationship with China remains strong
    “China remains a strong commercial opportunity for Kiwi exporters as Chinese businesses and consumers continue to value our high-quality safe produce,” Trade and Agriculture Minister Todd McClay says.   Mr McClay has returned to New Zealand following visits to Beijing, Harbin and Shanghai where he met ministers, governors and mayors and engaged in trade and agricultural events with the New ...
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    5 days ago

  • PM’s South East Asia mission does the business
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has completed a successful trip to Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines, deepening relationships and capitalising on opportunities. Mr Luxon was accompanied by a business delegation and says the choice of countries represents the priority the New Zealand Government places on South East Asia, and our relationships in ...
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    6 days ago

  • $41m to support clean energy in South East Asia
    New Zealand is demonstrating its commitment to reducing global greenhouse emissions, and supporting clean energy transition in South East Asia, through a contribution of NZ$41 million (US$25 million) in climate finance to the Asian Development Bank (ADB)-led Energy Transition Mechanism (ETM). Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Climate Change Minister Simon Watts announced ...
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    1 week ago

  • Minister releases Fast-track stakeholder list
    The Government is today releasing a list of organisations who received letters about the Fast-track applications process, says RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop. “Recently Ministers and agencies have received a series of OIA requests for a list of organisations to whom I wrote with information on applying to have a ...
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    1 week ago

  • Judicial appointments announced
    Attorney-General Judith Collins today announced the appointment of Wellington Barrister David Jonathan Boldt as a Judge of the High Court, and the Honourable Justice Matthew Palmer as a Judge of the Court of Appeal. Justice Boldt graduated with an LLB from Victoria University of Wellington in 1990, and also holds ...
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    1 week ago

  • Education Minister heads to major teaching summit in Singapore
    Education Minister Erica Stanford will lead the New Zealand delegation at the 2024 International Summit on the Teaching Profession (ISTP) held in Singapore. The delegation includes representatives from the Post Primary Teachers’ Association (PPTA) Te Wehengarua and the New Zealand Educational Institute (NZEI) Te Riu Roa.  The summit is co-hosted ...
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    1 week ago

  • Value of stopbank project proven during cyclone
    A stopbank upgrade project in Tairawhiti partly funded by the Government has increased flood resilience for around 7000ha of residential and horticultural land so far, Regional Development Minister Shane Jones says. Mr Jones today attended a dawn service in Gisborne to mark the end of the first stage of the ...
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    1 week ago

  • Anzac commemorations, Türkiye relationship focus of visit
    Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters will represent the Government at Anzac Day commemorations on the Gallipoli Peninsula next week and engage with senior representatives of the Turkish government in Istanbul.    “The Gallipoli campaign is a defining event in our history. It will be a privilege to share the occasion ...
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    1 week ago

  • Minister to Europe for OECD meeting, Anzac Day
    Science, Innovation and Technology and Defence Minister Judith Collins will next week attend the OECD Science and Technology Ministerial conference in Paris and Anzac Day commemorations in Belgium. “Science, innovation and technology have a major role to play in rebuilding our economy and achieving better health, environmental and social outcomes ...
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    1 week ago

  • Comprehensive Partnership the goal for NZ and the Philippines
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon held a bilateral meeting today with the President of the Philippines, Ferdinand Marcos Jr.  The Prime Minister was accompanied by MP Paulo Garcia, the first Filipino to be elected to a legislature outside the Philippines. During today’s meeting, Prime Minister Luxon and President Marcos Jr discussed opportunities to ...
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    1 week ago

  • Government commits $20m to Westport flood protection
    The Government has announced that $20 million in funding will be made available to Westport to fund much needed flood protection around the town. This measure will significantly improve the resilience of the community, says Local Government Minister Simeon Brown. “The Westport community has already been allocated almost $3 million ...
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    1 week ago

  • Taupō takes pole position
    The Government is proud to support the first ever Repco Supercars Championship event in Taupō as up to 70,000 motorsport fans attend the Taupō International Motorsport Park this weekend, says Economic Development Minister Melissa Lee. “Anticipation for the ITM Taupō Super400 is huge, with tickets and accommodation selling out weeks ...
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    1 week ago

  • Cost of living support for low-income homeowners
    Local Government Minister Simeon Brown has announced an increase to the Rates Rebate Scheme, putting money back into the pockets of low-income homeowners.  “The coalition Government is committed to bringing down the cost of living for New Zealanders. That includes targeted support for those Kiwis who are doing things tough, such ...
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    1 week ago

  • Government backing mussel spat project
    The Coalition Government is investing in a project to boost survival rates of New Zealand mussels and grow the industry, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones has announced. “This project seeks to increase the resilience of our mussels and significantly boost the sector’s productivity,” Mr Jones says. “The project - ...
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    1 week ago

  • Government focused on getting people into work
    Benefit figures released today underscore the importance of the Government’s plan to rebuild the economy and have 50,000 fewer people on Jobseeker Support, Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston says. “Benefit numbers are still significantly higher than when National was last in government, when there was about 70,000 fewer ...
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    1 week ago

  • Clean energy key driver to reducing emissions
    The Government’s commitment to doubling New Zealand’s renewable energy capacity is backed by new data showing that clean energy has helped the country reach its lowest annual gross emissions since 1999, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts says. New Zealand’s latest Greenhouse Gas Inventory (1990-2022) published today, shows gross emissions fell ...
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    1 week ago

  • Earthquake-prone buildings review brought forward
    The Government is bringing the earthquake-prone building review forward, with work to start immediately, and extending the deadline for remediations by four years, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “Our Government is focused on rebuilding the economy. A key part of our plan is to cut red tape that ...
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    1 week ago

  • Thailand and NZ to agree to Strategic Partnership
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and his Thai counterpart, Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, have today agreed that New Zealand and the Kingdom of Thailand will upgrade the bilateral relationship to a Strategic Partnership by 2026. “New Zealand and Thailand have a lot to offer each other. We have a strong mutual desire to build ...
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    1 week ago

  • Government consults on extending coastal permits for ports
    RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop and Transport Minister Simeon Brown have today announced the Coalition Government’s intention to extend port coastal permits for a further 20 years, providing port operators with certainty to continue their operations. “The introduction of the Resource Management Act in 1991 required ports to obtain coastal ...
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    1 week ago

  • Inflation coming down, but more work to do
    Today’s announcement that inflation is down to 4 per cent is encouraging news for Kiwis, but there is more work to be done - underlining the importance of the Government’s plan to get the economy back on track, acting Finance Minister Chris Bishop says. “Inflation is now at 4 per ...
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    1 week ago

  • School attendance restored as a priority in health advice
    Refreshed health guidance released today will help parents and schools make informed decisions about whether their child needs to be in school, addressing one of the key issues affecting school attendance, says Associate Education Minister David Seymour. In recent years, consistently across all school terms, short-term illness or medical reasons ...
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    1 week ago

  • Unnecessary bureaucracy cut in oceans sector
    Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones is streamlining high-level oceans management while maintaining a focus on supporting the sector’s role in the export-led recovery of the economy. “I am working to realise the untapped potential of our fishing and aquaculture sector. To achieve that we need to be smarter with ...
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    1 week ago

  • Opinion: It’s time for an arts and creative sector strategy
    I was initially resistant to the idea often suggested to me that the Government should deliver an arts strategy. The whole point of the arts and creativity is that people should do whatever the hell they want, unbound by the dictates of politicians in Wellington. Peter Jackson, Kiri Te Kanawa, Eleanor ...
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    1 week ago

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