‘Training’ for an early grave

Written By: - Date published: 7:40 pm, September 4th, 2022 - 99 comments
Categories: jacinda ardern, Media, Peace, Peeni Henare, Propaganda, Russia, Ukraine, war - Tags:

We’re sending 120 troops to Britain to ‘train’ raw recruits for the Ukraine killing grounds. For the Defence Dept, it’s an overseas trip to aid retention. For the Ukrainian conscripts, it’s a prelude to early death. It is criminal as well as cynical: we should be arguing for a stop to the war, not keeping it going ”to the death of the last Ukrainian.”

The much-touted “Kherson counter-offensive” has been a disastrous failure for the Ukrainian troops, lured into cauldrons in open grounds and decimated by aircraft and artillery. Two attacks on the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant by Ukrainian special forces has been another disaster, with the sizeable force led and trained by the British demolished. Russia is in control of the station and UN inspectors are at the plant and grateful for Russian help.

Severe losses over the course of the campaign are admitted by senior Ukrainian officers. From Vzglyad website  via Google translate:

Ukraine’s losses during a special military operation amount to hundreds of thousands of people, and the authorities did nothing to avoid casualties, said the former deputy commander of the special operations forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, former Deputy Secretary of the NSDC, General Serhiy Krivonos, on the air of the Ukrainian Media Network YouTube channel. “[We have] the right to say to the authorities: ‘Why did you do nothing, why did hundreds of thousands of dead – what did they die for? What did you do to save their lives? Stories that this is untimely are an attempt to blur the memory, to erase history. And how can you erase the blood of the dead, who already number in the hundreds of thousands? Who will be responsible for this?” – TASS quotes the words of the general. According to Krivonos, soon Ukrainians “will begin to ask the authorities why such colossal sacrifices were made.”

One suggestion is that the latest unsuccessful counter-offensive has been timed to coincide with the monthly NATO meeting of countries, originally established according to US Secretary of Defense General Lloyd Austin to ‘weaken Russia.’ There is no sign of this happening, and the ‘mother of all sanctions’ regime has resulted in massive blowback in Europe, facing a very cold winter with the loss of Russian gas supplies. NATO is concerned that support for the continuation of the war is fading in Europe.

Ukraine is moving off the front page in the US and some UK media, although not in the New Zealand with Radio New Zealand spreading disaster porn via the BBC and the egregious Tova O’Brien trying to get Jacinda Ardern to go and hold Zelensky’s hand. The military are getting cold feet: retired US General Mark Kimmitt in the Wall Street Journal assess the options and concludes:

Yet Mr. Zelensky must recognize that diminishing resupplies would have a disastrous effect on his army, not merely for battlefield operations but for the message of declining outside support it would send to the people of Ukraine. Beginning the diplomatic resolution would be distasteful, and perhaps seen as defeatist, but as there is little chance of climbing out of the current morass, it may be better to negotiate now than later.

In modern high-intensity warfare, logistics is the Achilles’ heel. Good training, great tactics and brave soldiers are critical, but without weapons, food and fuel, armies grind to a halt. That may be what is happening as the battlefield becomes static and a breakthrough looks unlikely.

The military often talks about the ability to see things clearly and comprehensively. Looking into a future of protracted war, diminishing high-tech systems and mounting casualties, Mr. Zelensky and NATO must face up to tough decisions before those decisions are forced on them.

He’s absolutely right about the logistics. At the press briefing about the deployment Defence Minister Peeni Henare admitted that we can’t send personnel carriers because we have no spare parts!

I find independent former defence analysts the best assessors of the real situation, both before and during the Russian special operation.  To call it unprovoked is official disinformation; it comes straight out of the Zygmar Brzezinski playbook, only this time the Russians saw it coming and prepared themselves. One of the best commentators in my opinion is Swiss Colonel Jacques Baud – his latest post is here  talking about his new book ‘Operation Z.’

Thus, the objectives announced as early as February 24 by Russia were the “demilitarization” and “denazification” of the threat to the populations of Donbass. These objectives are related to the neutralization of capabilities, not the seizure of land or resources. To put it bluntly, in theory, to achieve their goals the Russians do not need to advance—it would be enough if Ukrainians themselves would come and get killed.

In other words, our politicians and media have pushed Ukraine to defend the terrain like in France during the First World War. They pushed Ukrainian troops to defend every square meter of ground in “last stand” situations. Ironically, the West has only made the Russians’ job easier. In fact, as with the war on terror, Westerners see the enemy as they would like him to be, not as he is. As Sun Tzu said 2,500 years ago, this is the best recipe for losing a war.

All New Zealand’s trainers are doing is helping brave Ukrainians to go and get themselves killed. It is way beyond time for it to stop. Boris Johnson went to Kyiv to tell  Zelensky to continue fighting at a time when there was a chance for negotiation. He has been recently back again before he is replaced as Prime Minister with the same message about Zaporizhzhia.

The next time Jacinda Ardern speaks to Zelensky, in my opinion she should give the opposite message. Cut your losses and negotiate. Stop the senseless killing of your own people.

 

 

99 comments on “‘Training’ for an early grave ”

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  1. Mike the Lefty 1
    4 September 2022 at 8:21 pm

    Negotiation?

    With a megalomaniac, liar, bully and thug called Putin?

    Geat real Mike.

    You can't seriously negotiate with people like that unless you have first given them a bloody nose.

    The Ukranians understand that and although we all deplore the loss of life and property in Ukraine how can we observe from thousands of kilometres away and make judgements about how they should protect themselves?

    Plus nobody in New Zealand has been forced to do these jobs. They are all volunteers.

    • Subliminal 1.1
      4 September 2022 at 9:19 pm

      Putin tried to talk about his concerns regarding the $5 bilion spent by the US to organise the 2014 Maidan coup and then support and arm the likes of Azov and similar neo Nazi groups.

      It is all disturbingly similar to their support of other crazies such as ISIS in the Middle East or the creation of fundamentalist terror in Afghanistan. Given such history, the direction of travel for the ideologues in Ukraine was easy to guess.

      Jaques Baud whom Mike references above has detailed the 30 fold increase in shelling from the fortifications of the Nato trained and supplied crazies of Azov into the Russian speaking civilian areas such as Donetsk immediately prior to the recognition of the independence of the two regions of the Donbass. The extent of this shelling was such that attempts were made to evacuate entire populations. And all this was documented by the OSCE. As was the fact that until the SMO, there were no Russian troops in Ukraine.

      Even though there were no Russian troops, Nato and Ukraine built their fortified line many kms from the Russian border. Why? They were not trying to keep Russia out. They were trying to create the conditions by which Russia would see no option but to come to the aid of Russian speakers who had been subjected to constant shelling over the last 8 years and a staggering death toll. France and Germany had shown absolutely no intention of following through on their obligations under the UNSC sanctioned Minsk accords but were determined to allow the US and Nato a free hand in precipitating the current disastrous for Ukraine conflict.

      When Zelensky was on the verge of negotiating peace with Putin it was the clown Bojo that demanded more Ukrainian lives. To most independent observers the current horrific carnage and decimation of Ukraine's armed forces was entirely predictable. It is they and the West that have proved to be running out of ammunition. Every wave of Ukraine soldiers is met and will be met with the same implacable industrial quantity of artillery fire. It is madness to continue but the West appears determined to die over some infantile desire to finally defeat Russia at any cost.

      [lprent: Banned for 3 months for blatant asserted misinformation in your second paragraph. I don’t know of any vaguely credible source that shows US support for ISIS at any time. My guess is that you’re talking about US support for resistance to the USSR occupation of Afghanistan back in the 1980s. But since you gave no timeline or background it is simply a guess. I suspect that most of the rest of your military based bullshit is the same. But if you want to make assertions, then back them up with a link or source or even a timeline. ]

      • Populuxe1 1.1.1
        5 September 2022 at 12:52 am

        Awww look at you bootlicking for Russian imperialism.

        • Incognito 1.1.1.1
          5 September 2022 at 8:01 am

          Stick to OM when you have nothing useful and better to add to the convo here.

          • Populuxe1 1.1.1.1.1
            5 September 2022 at 3:33 pm

            What's more useful and better than calling out fascist propaganda?

            • Incognito 1.1.1.1.1.1
              5 September 2022 at 3:51 pm

              If that’s your intention then make an argument that addresses the OP and that contributes to robust debate instead of having a go at the Author in a manner that lacks substance. Most other commenters here seem to manage quite well today, so why don’t you give it a try or move over to OM?

              • Populuxe1 …
                5 September 2022 at 4:14 pm

                Because debating it implies it has legitimacy.

                • Incognito …
                  5 September 2022 at 4:36 pm

                  Others manage to debate here. Take heed, contribute to the debate, and stop arguing with me – I’m giving you a fair chance but patience is running out.

          • rightofcentre 1.1.1.1.2
            6 September 2022 at 11:08 pm

            I think that ban was a little excessive but its your rodeo

            If we look at patterns of behaviour ie Lusitania , Pearl Harbour , Gulf of Tonkin and the most recent Weapons Of Mass Destruction it has been proven that the war machine will quite happily "bend" the rules for conflict that benefits few at the cost of the many. Libya was also a sad atrocity where slave trading has now made a return since the Allies "liberated" the place. "We came, we saw, he died" quote Hillary Clinton

            I think the article was written well but is still a little naive . Whilst the author recognises much of the bullshit he dosnt stop to ask the real question , Why is Ukraine so important to the USA and why are we sticking our nose in where it dosnt belong . Do you think Jacinda isnt aware that they are sending innocents to their death?

            Whilst I agree that a request for links provided is reasonable, sometimes a couple of common sense observations carry enough weight to entertain a conversation.

            I remember the days when people could chat without being fact checked and if one were to apply the same scrutiny to their own writings then things might have a different perspective

            Some examples would be

            95% efficacy

            Prevents transmission

            Prevents infection

            Prevents hospitalization

            Prevents death

            All of the above were lies and anyone that said otherwise was censored, such a strange world we live in now days . One where the truth is censored and the fallacies fill the tabloids. Polar opposites like the most sanctioned country having the strongest currency whilst the plebs in Europe pay the price of energy duress so that elites can puff their chest.

            • PsyclingLeft.Always 1.1.1.1.2.1
              7 September 2022 at 7:15 am

              Some examples would be

              95% efficacy

              Prevents transmission

              Prevents infection

              Prevents hospitalization

              Prevents death

              What are you on about ?

      • SPC 1.1.2
        5 September 2022 at 9:44 am

        FACT CHECK

        1. There was no western support for Islamic State (al Qaeda in Iraq origin). The conflation of this group (that based in NE Syria before invading Northern Iraq during the civil war in Syria) with the rebels fighting the regime in Syria is absurd.
        2. Support for an elected regime in Afghanistan is not creating fundamentalist terror (from those wanting an Islamic dictatorship).

        PS the al Qaeda in Syria group, al Nusra, one of the main rebel groups in Syria was never supported by the West.

      • SPC 1.1.3
        5 September 2022 at 12:49 pm

        My guess is that you’re talking about US support for resistance to the USSR occupation of Afghanistan back in the 1980s

        Surely not, one could not call arming mujahedin with stingers to take down helicopters, terrorism. Though taking out a secular regime giving women their rights was one of the dumber things done during the Cold War (taking out Mosaddegh in Iran was up there as well).

      • Subliminal 1.1.4
        5 September 2022 at 2:51 pm

        I realise that you hatred of anything Russian fills you with rage when they are the obvious sole reasonable voice and winning milirarily to boot. There are many relevant references detailing Western preferences for ISIS over designated enemies such as Assad as well as to maintain control over energy sources in the Middle East. It is not controversial to state that the US funds their Syrian occupation and training of jihadists by thieving Syrian oil. If you care to read this Guardian article you will see some of the ways theWest supported ISIS. Especially up until videos of head chopping became a thing. But then I don't suppose the truth was ever really something that concerned you in your pathetic rage against any positive slant on Russia.

  2. Shane 2
    4 September 2022 at 9:20 pm

    This looks like it was written from a Russian perspective. I note that at least one of your links is a '.ru' link.
    What is important is what the Ukrainians want (you know, democracy and all that) – Russians eff off to their own borders and give Ukrainians their land back.
    Any ceasefire/negotiation will be used by the Russians to their own advantage; to regroup, re-strategise, and re-invade.
    Kherson is a low hanging fruit – there is a large amount of Russian troops isolated (thanks to HIMARS).

  3. Stuart Munro 3
    4 September 2022 at 9:34 pm

    Putin appears to be truly desperate now.

    His forces near Kherson are divided into three groups, and air cover is no longer available from Crimea as Russian controlled airfields there cannot be defended against attacks by partisans. The longer flight time for interceptors means that, for the first time Ukraine can safely strike ground targets on the southern front.

    The sooner this war ends the better – and the shortest path to that end is to continue support of the Ukraine against their oppressors. Russia's defeat will also afford the opportunity for much-needed political reform in Russia, though NZ's immediate post-bellum priority should probably be humanitarian aid and reconstruction of Ukraine.

    • lprent 3.1
      5 September 2022 at 12:23 pm

      The longer flight time for interceptors means that, for the first time Ukraine can safely strike ground targets on the southern front.

      The air war looks to me to be at stasis. The Russians appear to be doing rear defence only with fighters. No or limited close support. Offensively mainly relying on standoff firing of old missile stockpiles – often pretty inaccurate heavy anti-ship weapons fired at dubious intelligence targets.

      Basically Russian have been unable to take down Ukrainian anti-air missile defences. In all probability the reason for the wide use of inaccurate KH-22 missiles by Russia has been to threaten civilian areas containing infrastructure. This causes usage of air-defence missiles. The civilian casualties have just been a cynical and foreseeable side effect of using inaccurate weapons to diminish air-defences. The Russians appear to have used much of their newer missile stockpiles up based on the lack of effective targeting that has been displayed in recent months.

      The Ukrainians have much smaller and an older air force which limits their utility in strikes into occupied territory where there are significant anti-air missile systems. It does appear that the Ukrainians have been targeting those air-defence systems with long range artillery and probably will start using more radiation seeking missiles (HARM). But it will be a long slog to diminish those.

      They could take out Snake Island air defences because of the isolation and replenishment issues. But that is harder to do in the much larger occupied continental areas.

      The main image of the air war within the theatre has been of aircraft avoiding ground anti-air missiles. Plus swarming drones.

      • Sanctuary 3.1.1
        5 September 2022 at 12:36 pm

        One of the takeouts of this war is the limited impact of manned aircraft in the face of even a modest but well utilised missile air defence net – part of the over all trend of the ascendancy of the defence. The age of the absolute dominance of expensive all-conquering manned fighter and bomber may well be over, with many of the missions previously flown by manned aircraft to be replaced by a new era of much cheaper loitering muntions, UCAVs, RPAs, and tactical small drones alongside the rise and rise of short and medium range ballistic missiles and cruise missiles.

        • Stuart Munro 3.1.1.1
          5 September 2022 at 5:30 pm

          That's my take too – the range of possible drone roles is enormous, and current air defenses either struggle against them, or use much more expensive munitions than the drones themselves.

          Ukraine, knowing there were significant air defenses as well as numbers of fighters available, played fairly shy, but that is changing as they can precision target air defenses with artillery, and they now have the latest anti-radiation missiles.

          It will be interesting to see whether the next significant conflict deploys drone swarms, drone fighters equipped to hunt UAVs, or drone specific defensive arrays along the lines of the S400. Taiwan, being a leading electronics exponent may well find innovation along those lines attractive, both for defense, and as a promising export market.

          • rightofcentre 3.1.1.1.1
            6 September 2022 at 11:27 pm

            The drone warfare is going to be the future and almost unstoppable, I saw a concept bomber some years ago that had a honeycomb like fuselage. It housed tens of thousands of small drones carrying an explosive charge. They could use heat source or facial recognition targeting systems. A virtually unstoppable swarm of death

  4. aj 4
    4 September 2022 at 10:13 pm

    NATO veteran Joe Glenton spends 12 minutes giving an articulate and rational analysis, makes clear the dangers of this escalating into a nuclear conflict where the world will be the losers. The victims so far? Ukranian and Russian grunts and civilians.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XOGOKI-1Sl0&t=2s

  5. Populuxe1 5
    5 September 2022 at 12:51 am

    If you're going to die on the battlefield, fighting the naked aggression of Russian imperialist colonialism seems like a better reason to do so than most.

  6. Scud 6
    5 September 2022 at 2:19 am

    For God's shake, we are only into day 4 or 5 of this offensive.

    The UkR has had to conduct a deliberate attack into prepared Defensive Belt that maybe many miles in depth. Ie Break In, Fight through & then reorganise/ reconstituted 4 weeks for the next task or battle phase.

    Ie the read up Monash in 1918, Monty at El Alamein & Manstein during the capture of Crimea in 42.

    These types battles are not like your 72 hr war that the Yanks do or whatever you play on your PS Mike.

    This is an old fashioned offensive where either side doesn't have Air parity over the entire battlefield, but possibly localise Air Superiority in certain areas over the Battlefield l.

    With either not have overall found superiority either.

    A ground force matrix of the Russian Army in the Kherson AO, had 1 Army unit above 75% with the rest below 75 to less than 45% strength.

    The UkR Army has fully strength Units,-

    It's long range fires can not only out reach the Russians but it's more accurate,

    It's Morale & Training is 100x times better than the average Russian Baggie/ Squaddie.

    More importantly it's A & B Echelon (Logistics & Battlefield Recovery of equipment/ injured personal is a 100times better)

    Plus there is also an active insurgency behind the Russian Forward Line of Own Troops in the A& B Ech Areas

    Russia has numerous issues which is in complete opposite to the UkR Military especially in IRT to a lack of Infantry atm. They may have all the whistles & bells, but if you don't a enough infantry on the ground-

    to attack

    to defend,

    to secure,

    to deny,

    to delay, etc

    Then your mission is up shit creek before you have even started. (Note above these are mission verbs that we use under the heading Mission when we do our

    military appreciation process MAP

    give our concept of operations CONOPS

    In our Quick Attack Orders & more detail orders which are few papers thick or more depending on how far you are up the food chain.

    As for you wanting UkR to negotiate with Russia it's not going to happen!

    Why?

    Because when UrK got its first independence from Russia. They fought against the Bolsheviks & besides agreed to a crease fire. Russia held the eastern side of the Dnipro River.

    Eventually UrK collapse through renewed fighting, the infiltration 5th columnist supporting supporting the opposition parties Ukraine that favoured the USSR.

    Which Stalin crushed all Ukrainian opposition & the people of Ukraine which led to Holodomor.

    Russia's treatment of Ukraine under Stalin post WW2 wasn't flash either nor later after Khrushchev & especially after Chernobyl.

    Under it's 2nd independence, Ukraine sort guarantees from Russia. That when Ukraine gave up its Strategic Weapons under the Lisbon Protocol and Budapest memorandum.

    That Russia will respect Ukraine's Sovereignty and it's rights as a Sovereign country to make it's own decisions in regards to its economic well-being, economic security and it's overall security free from Russian convert & overt political interference.

    With the United kingdom and the United States guaranteeing it security by whatever means for Ukraine to defend itself from Russia aggression.

    Given Russia's treatment of Ukraine since Imperial rule, later under USSR rule, & later twice when it gained it's independence.

    Only to have Russia volatile it's guarantees/ Treaty obligations & you wonder why Ukraine doesn't trust Russia to up hold its bargain!

    • lprent 6.1
      5 September 2022 at 12:45 pm

      Mostly accurate description of the current military situation. And the history from what I know.

      These offensives are likely to take weeks to gain momentum because of complete lack of any air-superiority by either side. It is going to be a war of tactical intel, logistics and ground forces. The Ukrainians are finally being in a position to effectively target the rear echelon logistics of the Russian artillery.

      The drones are going to be important for intel, but so are the on-the ground sources. I suspect that Ukrainian forces have the advantage with ground intel. The Russians should be better with orbital and signals – but they haven't shown any signs of effectively using that down to the ground so far in this war.

      There has been a palpable sense of confusion in all of the Russian campaigns to date. But they have been able to attack when they concentrated their attacks because of their superior supply and relatively unconstrained logistics (once you ignore their daft blitzkrieg initial attacks.

      Looks like we will find out how well they operate in defence and with attacks on their supply.

      Scud – took a bit to read myself through the sentences…. Could you try a bit more.

      • Scud 6.1.1
        5 September 2022 at 4:23 pm

        Ah, sorry about. I wrote it last night, as I couldn't get to sleep as I'm in a Veterans hospital in Adelaide which has turned into Ben-Hur & I couldn't believe what I reading which made me quite angry.

        The Southern Offensive is going to be all about Logistics & Long Range Fires into Russia's A& B Echelon & River Crossings than ground gained atm.

        The UkR Military will seek to avoid fighting in the major Urban areas & surround them IOT starve the Russians out & hopefully by creating a bit depth this will make the Russians harder to breakout or be resupplied.

        Anyway I've had a hectic morning, with the Dr's & the social worker/psychologist.

        So my brain is totally F**ed atm.

        I get round to replying to your comment about the UkR Airforce Tactics which is currently punching will above its Weight Division.

  7. Bruce 7
    5 September 2022 at 7:49 am

    Yea Right and russia have destroyed 44 of the 20 HIMARS Ukraine have.

    https://www.newsweek.com/did-russia-claim-destroy-44-himars-launchers-ukraine-1739314

    Try Denys Davydov or Jake Broe among many on You Tube that refute your claims

  8. Tiger Mountain 8
    5 September 2022 at 8:50 am

    Armchair generals having online showdowns with their favourite You Tube clips just switches some of us off.

    Why is NZ even considering getting involved? Possibly–because this country’s ruling class has membership of 5 Eyes and the Anglosphere, and is subject to the influence of US & British Imperialism. AUKUS, NATO and other potentially disastrous acronyms are ultimately no good for working class people. When was the last time anyone had a vote on 5 Eyes? exactly…never.

    Neither Washington, Moscow or Beijing.

    • lprent 8.1
      5 September 2022 at 1:12 pm

      That is something that is a worthy discussion.

      However I'd suggest that you might like start by having a look for any military or intelligence treaties by any country up for public vote.

      I am aware of a very limited number of non-binding referendums – almost entirely related to entry to NATO.

      In NZ, treaties of all kinds are done by the crown – ie the government of the day. They may be shown to parliament select committees – but they don't get a vote on anything except the off occasion that enabling legislation is required. Treaties are made by orders in council.

      There is a reason for that – treaties are complex mixtures of technical and resource complexities. Certainly past the abilities of most MPs and probably most ministers. They are hammered out by our permanent government which is the crown and its servants.

      You'd have to change our constitutional basis to be able to do what you're appear to be suggesting with public votes.

      Not to mention convincing people like me who read a lot of history that it is a good idea to subject treaties that last for many decades to a public vote. After all we only have to look at some of the many casually worded referendums in NZ to be wary of them. Not to mention the examples from offshore like unfolding disaster of Brexit.

      I'd like more transparency about proposed treaties to enable a wider discussion and feedback. I'd be sceptical about MPs or the public directly voting on them. Currently I can't see where that would add any value to decision making about treaties.

      This is exactly why we have a representative democracy rather than than have more than a token attempt to have a direct democracy.

      It doesn't have much to do with the ruling class any more. It has a lot to do with wondering how much trust to place in other members of our society (including myself) to make the effort to learn enough to make informed decisions about complexity.

      • Tiger Mountain 8.1.1
        5 September 2022 at 1:46 pm

        I write short pieces generally on blogs, long considered writing is too often pearls before swine–and one liners merely dismissive.

        My shorthand really just refers to relative class power. Few fully realised what they were voting for in the 1984 General Election, and we have had a neo liberal monetarist consensus between the main Parliamentary parties ever since.

        I understand what you say about complexity, informed decisions and transparency. Would not particularly want say capital punishment or some other hot button issues voted on at this time.

        Few politicians would have the appetite to give Uncle Sam the big finger via a public vote on an independent foreign policy and exiting 5 Eyes–yet in the 1980s that is close to what NZ voters did via the New Zealand Nuclear Free Zone, Disarmament, and Arms Control Act 1987.

  9. Sanctuary 9
    5 September 2022 at 9:09 am

    Wow. Who would have thought we'd live to see pure fascist propaganda getting a platform at the The Standard? Unlike the OP, I have refrained from forming strong conclusions based on disinformation and lies from a fascist dictatorship. However, fascist framings and propaganda lies are fascist framings and propaganda lies so they need to be addressed.

    (the war should) "…not keeping it going ”to the death of the last Ukrainian.”…"

    To deny agency to the victims of aggression is a standard tactic of the bully and abuser. Surely, they asked, we must negotiate with Herr Hitler rather than fight to the death of the last Pole? Has it ever occurred to the OP that Ukrainians are dying because they want to defend their homeland from an invader, and are willingly making that sacrifice?

    "…“Kherson counter-offensive” has been a disastrous failure for the Ukrainian troops, lured into cauldrons in open grounds and decimated by aircraft and artillery…."

    A luridly fantastical description of events, such as which are usually (and wisely) best left to fools. No one has any real idea what has been going on for the past five days. However, some general observations can be made. Modern peer conflict has shifted decisively to the defense, especially when neither side can muster a truly decisive breakthrough mass. Therefore military operations in Kherson are now more akin to the assaults on the Western front in 1917-18 than the sweeping Offensive operations of WW2, particularly when you are using troops inexperienced in offensive operations. A well executed attack therefore is more likely to resemble Plumer's "bite and hold" attack at Messines in 1917 than the tank battles on the steppe of 1941-44. I saw footage recently of captured Russian postions that resembled in every respect the entrenchments of WW1, whilst satellite analysis of the Russian defenses around Kherson show an uncanny resemblence to the Hindenburg line. The outcome of the Ukrainian offensive is unclear. Like WW1, advances -even victorious ones – are only gained with heavy losses. However, they have at least parity in firepower and hold the attritional advantage in Kherson. It is obvious the Russians have been stunned by the accuracy, range, and destructive power of western artillery, especially the MLRS/HIMARS systems and the long-range 155mm artillery rounds being supplied to the Ukraine. And the Ukrainian infantry appear more than willing to go forward and flush out the fascist invaders in close combat, an important advantage.

    There are other signs for cautious optimism. It seems the training programs are having the desired effect (perhaps this is why the Kremlin stooge who write this piece has taken such a direct aim at them?) and the Ukrainians are now rotating battered units out of the line and replacing them with better trained men equipped with western weapons. As a nation of 44 millions (more than the UK at the start of WW1), there is little chance the Ukrainians will run out of men anytime soon and they hold a clear manpower advantage over the Russians, who are too afraid of their own people to mobilise so are bleeding white the forces of the DNR/LPR, frantically recruiting from the prisons and trying to contract out the war to their impoverished ethnic minorities. The Russians cannot regenerate and rotate their units, and rely on field fortifications artillery, lots of armour and airpower to hold their positions. This puts into context the heroic defence of Mariupol and the ferocious battle for Severodonetsk – the Russian were bled white far more than the Ukrainians in these two battles and they cannot in the medium term conduct further significant offensive operations. Photos of the recent Russian presence at the important Vostok 2022 joint manoeuvres with China were very down on previous years.

    "…To put it bluntly, in theory, to achieve their goals the Russians do not need to advance—it would be enough if Ukrainians themselves would come and get killed…"

    As neat a re-writing of history as you might come across anywhere, given the unlimited nature of the stated Russian war aim which were and are the complete conquest of the Ukraine and the extinction of the Ukrainian identity and the liquidation of it's political and military leadership. In any event, it is pretty clear it is the Russians who are getting themselves killed at a somewhat greater rate than they can afford, not the Ukrainians.

    Finally, we need to address the meta of the post, because it does reveal (inadvertently?) an insight into the mindset of the Russians. The Russians, like all Fascist states – especially ones inflicted as they are with aging dictator syndrome – appear to believe that weakling democracies will always fold. The Russian hope for a cold winter to blackmail Europe in surrender, that Trump will be returned in 2024, and America will stop supplying the Ukraine. By weaponising energy and food they appear keen on precipating famine and starvation and recession in countries that they none the less routinely threaten with nuclear annihilation for merely aiding the Ukrainians. One can only imagine the apoplexy of the Kremlin if the boot is on the other foot!

    They hope that Trump will win and European resolve will collapse. it is of course the curse of fascism to under estimate the resilience of free people when confronted by bullies and threats, and to underestimate the patriotism and willingness of people to fight and die in defence of somewhat shitty liberal democracies. The Europeans will survive the winter, and the recession will be short. And Trump won't win in 2024. The American's can't believe their luck – in the Ukraine, they've finally got a country that is willing to fight and they'll fund it to the hilt.

    In short, for all the Russian "long game" they have lost – their army is a busted flush, their military reputation is in tatters, Their great power pretensions exposed for the fraud that they are, and their long term strategy is based on a pile of dubious assumptions about their opponents.

    In other words, business as usual for fascism.

    • Blazer 9.1
      5 September 2022 at 11:49 am

      Can you even imagine how WW2 would have played out without the Russians defeating Nazi Germany and the huge cost of 23million Russian lives.

      Of course the Ukrainians fought shoulder to shoulder with the…Nazis.The irony!

      • Sanctuary 9.1.1
        5 September 2022 at 12:18 pm

        We would have kept dropping atomic bombs on the Germans until they surrendered sometime in 1946.

        • Blazer 9.1.1.1
          5 September 2022 at 12:22 pm

          I believe the U.S only had 3 atomic…bombs.Used 2 on Japan in 1945.

          Where exactly would they have dropped all these bombs…in occupied France ?

          • lprent 9.1.1.1.1
            5 September 2022 at 1:29 pm

            I believe the U.S only had 3 atomic…bombs.Used 2 on Japan in 1945.

            So that the US had the production facilities to produce many more atomic weapons in 1945 after Nagasaki doesn't enter your thinking?

            They are estimated to have produced more than 20 by the end of 1945, and at least 50-60 in 1946. By 1950, hundreds. By 1955 thousands. I can’t find a detailed link. But this one will give you the idea.

            Where exactly would they have dropped all these bombs…in occupied France ?

            You really are ignorant.

            The British and US had been bombing Germany and beyond regularly in massed raids since 1943 from the UK, and the Med.

            They didn't need to develop a whole new class of strategic bomber to travel the range required to bomb Japan.

            • Blazer 9.1.1.1.1.1
              5 September 2022 at 2:12 pm

              In May 1945, the Allies defeated Germany, two months before the atomic bomb was complete.

              The atomic bomb & The Manhattan Project (article) | Khan Academy

              'They are estimated to have produced more than 20 by the end of 1945,'surprise

              • lprent …
                5 September 2022 at 3:09 pm

                Can you even imagine how WW2 would have played out without the Russians…

                Fool – read the quote of your speculative fantasy.

                The comment you were replying to was on your speculation that the UK and US could not have defeated Germany without Russia. ie presumably if Germany had not mounted Barbarossa in 1941 or if Germany had been able to defeat or bring Russia to the peace table. Or Germany hadn't stupidly declared war against the US in later 1941.

                The problem with the whole precept is that Germany wasn't particularly advanced in nuclear technologies at any point in the war. The US were developing nuclear weapons from 1939. It accelerated after 1941 as a response to the Japanese, but was well ahead of German development all the way through the war years.

                It is unlikely that the US could have stayed out of the war in Europe even without Hitlers declaration of war. There were too many US citizens and ships being sunk in the Atlantic. Plus the US needed the support of British empire outposts in the Pacific (especially Australia) after the loss of the Philippines starting from December 1941.

      • Phil 9.1.2
        5 September 2022 at 12:59 pm

        Of course the Ukrainians fought shoulder to shoulder with the…Nazis

        Hey, maybe you can help me find Ukraine on this map from 1939?

        https://omniatlas.com/maps/europe/19390916/

      • Populuxe1 9.1.3
        5 September 2022 at 3:49 pm

        Some Ukrainians fought with the Nazis, and that was mostly because after the horrors of the Holodomor it probably seemed the better option at the time. Mass genocidal starvation does tend to colour one's perceptions somewhat, no?

        • Francesca 9.1.3.1
          6 September 2022 at 7:42 am

          Did the Jews and the Poles cause the Holodomor?

          Because Ukrainian nationalists took to killing them with great gusto.

          • Phil 9.1.3.1.1
            6 September 2022 at 1:38 pm

            If you think the systematic marginalisation and/or elimination of Jewish people from a society in the 1800's and 1900's is exclusively a trait of fascist or nazi regimes, then your view of history is absurdly myopic.

  10. tsmithfield 10
    5 September 2022 at 9:31 am

    The most effective way to save Ukrainian lives would be for Russia to withdraw immediately from Ukraine. That would stop all the death and fighting in the most effective way possible.

    That solution would have the added benefit of saving a lot of Russian lives as well.

    So, Mike, if your concern is genuinely for the lives of both Ukrainian and Russian soldiers, how about you argue for this solution.

    • aom 10.1
      5 September 2022 at 10:07 am

      The most effective way to save lives would be for NATO to\pull their heads in. That would stop all the death and fighting in the most effective way possible.

      That solution would have the added benefit of saving a lot of Ukrainian and Russian lives as well.

      • tsmithfield 10.1.1
        5 September 2022 at 10:22 am

        Last time I saw NATO has not been doing any invading. The only aggressors in this situation are the Russians. All they need to do is leave and all the fighting stops.

        They can either leave by their own choice or be forced to leave. The outcome is inevitable now.

    • Scud 10.2
      5 September 2022 at 10:59 am

      BZ Sanctuary, couldn't said it any better.

  11. dottie 11
    5 September 2022 at 10:10 am

    Absolutely Mike,

    We should be arguing for a stop to the war,

    not aiding to keep it going.

  12. tsmithfield 12
    5 September 2022 at 10:10 am

    It is now clear the Russians are going to lose this war. It is just a matter of when.

    The Russians will soon be forced to either capitulate in the Kherson region, or will have to find a way of escape.

    The Ukrainians were very cunning in announcing their offensive against Kherson weeks in advance. That left the Russians with two unpalatable choices. Either give up Kherson due to not having enough forces in the area, or reinforce Kherson, and thereby weaken other areas due to forces being reallocated to the Kherson region.

    The Russians chose the latter course. But, this had the effect of locating around 20000 Russian troops in a kill zone.

    The Ukrainians have been very effective in destroying Russian ammo dumps and command centres. Also, they have been destroying bridges and pontoon ferrys etc that the Russians have set up to try and keep their troops supplied. As a consequence, the Russians are in a position in Kherson that is unsustainable in the long term. Hence, I expect Russia will lose Kherson and the surrounding area within the next month.

    Also, Ukraine is making progress in other areas due to the weakening of Russian forces. For instance, they are making good gains in the Izium region, and the Russians are being held in other areas.

    Once the Ukrainians achieve their goals in the Kherson region, they will have a lot of troops that they can redeploy to the rest of the front. Then they will be able to rinse and repeat what they have done in Kherson. So, strategically, the Russians have already lost this war. It is just a question of timing now.

    • lprent 12.1
      5 September 2022 at 1:58 pm

      As a consequence, the Russians are in a position in Kherson that is unsustainable in the long term. Hence, I expect Russia will lose Kherson and the surrounding area within the next month.

      I doubt that. The Russians have a major defence advantage in that the Ukrainians don't have the numbers for a distinct attack advantage. Russian forces now have some pretty strong incentives to fix their rear echelon idiocies – and they have been slowly showing signs of re-learning how to soldier without overwhelming advantage.

      The only thing that is likely to cause a fast collapse would be using the involuntary conscripts that the DPR has been making and wasting, and some of the under-trained soldiers the Russians have been recruiting in their remote federal districts. However I suspect that the Russians would have moved their better troops into the defence position, because of this problem.

      They'd keep wasting poorly trained and motivated troops in the kinds of frontal attacks that the DPR seem to have done around Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk in June. Following up on artillery and with armed troops at their back is the classic cannon fodder usage. But that isn't viable not in defensive positions under attack because of the propensity of poorly trained and equipped or conscripted soldiers to rout.

      Both sides are trying to upgrade the skills of their professional and blooded soldiers to be able to bolster their ability to attack. Which is why there are the training camps going on across Europe for Ukrainian soldiers.

      • tsmithfield 12.1.1
        5 September 2022 at 2:08 pm

        I guess time will tell. The HIMARS have been making a huge difference to Ukraine.

        Those things are accurate within about a five metre radius. That means the whole of the Kherson region up to the Dnipro river is now under Ukrainian fire control. The problem for the Russians is logistics. And even getting the basics of food and water to their troops. Russia has been accumulating supplies on the other side of the river, trying to ferry them across due to the bridges being down. But the Ukrainians have been hitting those as well due to them all being bunched up.

        So, Russia has a huge problem. The large number of troops they have their now are a liability rather than an asset if they can't be supplied. And troops without ammunition are not much use.

        I expect the Russians will fight for awhile. But will collapse quite rapidly in that area if they can't solve their logistics problems.

      • tsmithfield 12.1.2
        5 September 2022 at 3:10 pm

        BTW, here is a comment that forms part of a recent analysis from Michael Kofman, who tends to be quite conservative on his views on the matter. Kofman is a well recognised authority, as "Director, Russia Studies at CNA. Senior Adjunct Fellow, CNA''

        https://twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1566453046556741633

  13. heather grimwood 13
    5 September 2022 at 10:43 am

    Mike, your assertion " we should be arguing for a stop to the war" is my fervent wish.

    As so many times in recent decades I have spoken out and been an activist for this seemingly endless cause.

    Indeed I felt ill at our sending other than humanitarian aid in Ukraine's cause.

    The world's leaders must urgently ensure that the mature strengths of conciliation prevail over avarice and pugnacity.

    • Sanctuary 13.1
      5 September 2022 at 10:51 am

      "…The world's leaders must urgently ensure that the mature strengths of conciliation prevail over avarice and pugnacity…"

      And I'm quite keen on getting a sweet pony.

      Stopping the war will happen when Putin losses it and he has an unfortunate fall from a Kremlin window. Ergo, thew quickest way to end the war is train and to equip the Ukrainians with enough weapons to win the war as quickly as possible.

      • Populuxe1 13.1.1
        5 September 2022 at 3:51 pm

        I greatly fear that even if Putin had a little accident, Russia has backed itself into a corner and the war might very well carry on under new management with only marginally different ambitions.

  14. Tony 14
    5 September 2022 at 11:21 am

    100% correct analysis Mike Smith. I will lay $100 bets with you supporters of the Ukraine nazi infested regime that Russia will accomplish it's goals with this SMO. Also remember only 17% of the World has put sanctions on Russia which are failing spectacularly, 83% of the World supports Russia, we are part of a small minority which are going to suffer for the roles our leaders took. We ain't seen nothing yet!

    • tsmithfield 14.1
      5 September 2022 at 11:32 am

      First you need to define the goals. Russia seems to keep changing these based on how much it is losing by.

      • Tony 14.1.1
        5 September 2022 at 12:55 pm

        Tsmithfield the SMO goals have never changed, Demilitarise Ukraine as a buffer against Nato spelt USA and lackeys and also to Denazify Ukraine, both goals are being accomplished and if you think Russian will lose then take my bet and make yourself an easy $100. If you want real world info on Ukraine I can give you some good independent Military analysts to read rather than the rubbish you are consuming now ..

        • tsmithfield 14.1.1.1
          5 September 2022 at 2:01 pm

          Yes, that would be an easy $100.

          To denazify Ukraine is an impossibility from the get go because Russia is acting like the biggest Nazi state of them all at the moment. So, even if Ukraine isn't a Nazi state now, they definitely would be if Russia did manage to win the war.

          But before I take any bet with you, you need to specify concrete measures so we can determine if the conditions of the bet have been met or not. That would include a firm timeframe for the goals to be met, and what the measurable milestones are for the goals to be met.

          In order to "denazify and demilarise" Ukraine, would seem to necessarily require the whole of Ukraine to be conquered by Russia. Otherwise there could still be Nazis and weapons floating around in Ukraine.

          So, it seems to me that the conditions for you winning the bet would not exist until Ukraine is completely under Russian control.

          So, how about we have a $100 bet based on whether Ukraine is or is not completely conquered by Russia within the next 12 months. If Ukraine remains unconquered in that time then I win. If Ukraine is conquered then you win.

          Your move.

          • Tony 14.1.1.1.1
            5 September 2022 at 6:02 pm

            Tsmithfield, as I previously stated in contrast to Sanctuarys absurd claim of Russia saying they would win in 5 days, Russia has never put a timeline on it and neither will I, suffice to say they will accomplish both objectives. You state Russia must take all of Ukraine to denazify it, so you agree there are nazis in Ukraines power base?

            • tsmithfield 14.1.1.1.1.1
              5 September 2022 at 6:15 pm

              "… as I previously stated in contrast to Sanctuarys absurd claim of Russia saying they would win in 5 days, Russia has never put a timeline on it and neither will I, …"

              But you are the one wanting to bet $100. If you don't put a time frame against the bet, then it is meaningless, as you can always claim that the absence of an outcome is due to delay, and it will come eventually. Hence, you can make a bet without ever risking losing. If you are really honest about your bet, then you need to frame it in a way that is measurable.

              "You state Russia must take all of Ukraine to denazify it, so you agree there are nazis in Ukraines power base?"

              There are Nazis in most cultures, even Russia from reports I have seen. If "denazifying" means getting rid of all Nazis, then, like many other places, there may well be some in Ukraine with those views.

        • roblogic 14.1.1.2
          5 September 2022 at 8:26 pm

          Why does Russia need a "buffer"? It is the largest nation in the world.

          Putin is trying to expand his borders and add more victims to his open air prison camp.

          Do you think the Viet Cong should have just rolled over for the sake of "peace"? The only "peace" Putin offers Ukraine is the one that comes from death by firing squad.

          • Tony 14.1.1.2.1
            5 September 2022 at 9:35 pm

            Your comment lacks logic Rob .. you are all over the place, words without real meaning, much like a few other commentators on here, like clouds without rain, or in other words without substance ..

    • Sanctuary 14.2
      5 September 2022 at 11:48 am

      "…that Russia will accomplish it's goals with this SMO…"

      LOL! What do you base this bit of wishful thinking on? What goals anyway? Capture a tiny village in the Donbas after losing 2000 more men? Impose a genocide on a vanquished Ukrainian nation? So hard to keep up.

      Russia has lost. They gambled they could win in five days and they failed. They gambled they could wear the Ukrainians down and they haven't. They thought they could divide and conquer Europe using energy blackmail. Instead, they just hardened European opinion against them. They've failed. They thought Trump might win. He won't. They've failed at every step and it's only going to get worse in the long run.

      Do you know why the Europeans are pushing so hard to re-start the Iran nuclear deal? Because once they get it back on track Iranian oil comes back onto the world market. Russia has tried to blackmail Europe with energy and it hasn't worked. In return European and US sanctions have smashed Russian oil profitability.

      Now, the Russians have partly side stepped energy sanctions by exporting oil to India and China. Good as far as it gets, but of course they've failed in getting the Western allies to stop supporting the Ukraine which was the whole point of diverting sales. But those exports to India and China have been at a considerable discount – and India only has limited storage capacity anyway. So once Iranian oil comes back onto the market the price of oil will drop. And potentially (if there is a recession) drop a lot. Which given the discount the Russians are offering to China and India means big problems for the profitability of Russia's energy exports. And that in turn will mean curtains for the Russian economy over all.

      • Tony 14.2.1
        5 September 2022 at 1:06 pm

        Sanctuary talks about the West as if it is the majority, the West is 17% of the World who has imposed self defeating sanctions on Russia, Europe will end up a backwater due to suicide by sanctions. 83% of the World are looking forward to the end of the unipolar moment in time and if you look at BRICS plus Turkey Iran Pakistan you see the Future, we are on the wrong and losing side in this conflict. In a previous post Sanctuary talked about his "informed sources" which gave me a good laugh because they didn't even know the Keiv feint was successful, it locked up tens of thousands of troops there while Russia got about the business of liberating the Donbass which has been defending itself against the Ukonazis for 8 long years where they lost over 14,000 Russian speaking Ukrainians and the Western press were silent. Shame on us for being involved!

        • Sanctuary 14.2.1.1
          5 September 2022 at 4:31 pm

          17%? You mean of all the people? The G7 is 43% of the worlds GDP. Close Allies – Australia, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, NZ etc – amount to another 8-9% of global GDP. Just BTW – the GDP of the CER countries (Australia & NZ) is probably higher now than Russia’s post sanctions.

          China, which is playing Putin for a fool, contributes another 19%. The entire rest of the world makes up the remaining 30%. So if you mean by 17% you mean 17% of the world population, I would suggest that it is the 17% that happens have all the guns.

          • Tony 14.2.1.1.1
            5 September 2022 at 5:56 pm

            Sanctuary tell me where you found out that Xi is playing Putin for a fool, facts please, not more of your "Uninformed sources" Combine Russia China South Africa Brazil India Turkey Iran Pakistan and their GDPs and populations and they dwarf your G7, What has age got to do with this discussion or do you want to age shame me?

      • Tony 14.2.2
        5 September 2022 at 1:22 pm

        Sanctuary you are good for the laugh, tell me where Russia ever put a time line on this operation, they never have, so where are you getting this rubbish from, your informed sources maybe .. ha ha ha .. Remember it was USA and Europe imposed sanctions on Russia which in their exact words would bring Russia to it's knees with our shock and awe sanctions .. ha ha ha, then when the sanctions backfired the Europeans start snivelling that Russia is using energy blackmail on them when it was them that started them .. ha ha ha. Your Western Allies amount to 17% of the world, do you think Russia gives a damn about the declining West, look East and South young man, therein lies the future ..

  15. Barfly 15
    5 September 2022 at 11:57 am

    Seeing so many Putin lovers here is quite saddening – seeing the same people demanding actions that would reward Putin for his war is enraging. angrybroken heart

  16. Sanctuary 16
    5 September 2022 at 12:10 pm

    It is an unusual phenomena, isn't it? I do hear though that pro-Russian sentiment is quite high in the anti-vax/conspiracy theory crowd.

    • In Vino 16.1
      5 September 2022 at 12:38 pm

      I think it is an unusual phenomenon ('a' is the plural ending) that so many people are convinced by either version, when I don't see that any of us can really tell what is happening.

      Ascribing evil attributes to those who disagree with you seems to be another current phenomenon

    • Tony 16.2
      5 September 2022 at 2:32 pm

      Sanctuary hears that pro Russian sentiment is quite high in the anti-vax/ conspiracy theory crowd, Hey San did your "Informed sources" tell you that? That's quite a colourful smearing of those you oppose? and which conspiracy theories are you referring to San?

  17. lprent 17
    5 September 2022 at 2:52 pm

    He’s absolutely right about the logistics. At the press briefing about the deployment Defence Minister Peeni Henare admitted that we can’t send personnel carriers because we have no spare parts!

    Mike – I'm always intrigued by people who haven't been in or around the military and their focus on the strangest things. NZ only has LAV, LOVs or any kind of APC s as training devices in case of deployment to theatres of war that require them.

    The NZ Army hasn't had significant armoured vehicles for fighting here since I was a soldier back in the early 1980s. We trained in APCs, but then as now, the army was orientated to infantry, artillery and special operations. We seldom saw APCs or the remaining tanks in exercises.

    Where we have deployed soldiers into situations that required armour for infantry – for instance for UN missions in the Balkans in the 1990s, or Afghanistan or Iraq after 2011. We didn't expect to transport vehicles from NZ to Europe – they were largely (probably entirely) provided by allied forces closer to the theatres.

    The kinds of spare parts required for just training differ massively from those required for warfare by around 50 fold. As the army uses our armoured vehicles mainly for training, we don't hold warfare levels of spares.

    The reason for not having armoured vehicles for warfare inside NZ should be pretty obvious. There aren't too many places in NZ where tanks or APCs can go off road without bogging down. The geomorphology of the country is terrible for heavy tracked or wheeled vehicles. We don't have land borders with other nations.

    I just can't see why you'd expect any armour to be shipped to a theatre of war from here. The idea is just daft. We regularly send soldiers from here to train with our allies in their equipment in case we need training cadre for overseas deployments and have gear here for basic familiarisation during training.

    What we can do offshore is to provide training in particular skills that our professional soldier do use in conjunction with our military allies. That doesn't involve shipping tonnes of steel to the other side of the world.

    The basic principle won't be to train soldiers to be slaughtered – which appears to be your naive precept. After all this isn't the early 20th century any more when that kind of stupid idea that you could thrust a weapon into someones hand along with a nationalist bullshit and get them to invade a neighbour was prevalent.

    The whole point of training soldiers, something which I have had quite a lot of experience with, is to reduce the probability to be slaughtered. It is also to provide a cadre of trained soldiers who can then train less well-trained soldiers not to get slaughtered.

    Of course this also increases the probability of opposing forces to get killed. But that is what any aggressor invading a country should expect.

    There is simply no excuse for the Russian invasion of a neighbour, nor for their ongoing military support for multiple breakaway regions of other states over the past few decades. NZ should offer whatever support that we can against this kind of stupid 20th century style imperialistic aggression.

    Sending training LAV's is silly. Sending people to train and upgrade skills is a damn good idea.

    • adam 17.1
      5 September 2022 at 3:30 pm

      Jingoism never works out for working people.

      This promoting of working people to fight for one set of oligarchs or another is sickening.

      It feels worse when one side is a total anti-democratic scum bag, and the other is fast become more of a anti-democratic scum bag.

      • Populuxe1 17.1.1
        5 September 2022 at 3:41 pm

        And what of the working people having the crap bombed out of them because an imperialist colonial power decided it didn't like that the neighbours were being less subservient?

        • adam 17.1.1.1
          5 September 2022 at 4:58 pm

          Who are the ones using human shields again…

          So your solution is to amp up the violence, and not look for solutions which don't involve guns populuxe1?

          War crimes that start wars, don't justify war crimes to keep one going.

          • Phil 17.1.1.1.1
            6 September 2022 at 1:44 pm

            Who are the ones using human shields again…

            Explain to me how civilians being killed when apartment blocks in suburban neighbourhoods are struck by Russian shelling is Ukraine 'using human shields'.

    • Populuxe1 17.2
      5 September 2022 at 3:57 pm

      Exactly. We have zero offensive capability and bugger all defensive capability even in our own EEZ (though I suspect the latter is being rapidly revisited). We are not directly involved, we have no capability to directly involve ourselves, and it is highly unlikely Russia consider us any sort of player worth worrying about. What we have is skills which we are sharing out of what seems a pretty clear cut moral imperative under the auspices of allied nations we have longstanding diplomatic ties with.

    • Mike Smith 17.3
      5 September 2022 at 6:27 pm

      Lynne I agree sending LAVs would be silly as did Henare who explained that the request initially came from the Ukrainians. My highlighting his comment about the lack of spare parts was linked to the problems of logistics in ground war. It is the western countries who are starting to complain about shortages.

      • lprent 17.3.1
        12 September 2022 at 11:43 am

        It is the western countries who are starting to complain about shortages.

        Sure. However they have production lines that can spin up massively over relatively short time spans (months) to replace consumables. They aren't sending vast numbers of current armour, air-defence systems, or artillery. They're either sending old soviet gear or consumables (like light weapons). And a smattering of modern systems.

        They also (like the Russians) have large stockpiles of older equipment that just require training for the Ukrainians to use, and an ability to repair or cannibalise armour that is in their European military junkyards that the Ukrainians can use after training. The Russians have been pulling old T65s and pushing them into occupation roles because they have trainers for that gear.

        Training for equipment is the key to how this invasion will get repulsed. Which is why we sent artillery trainers on how to use older sight systems that we don't use here any more. We have people trained in their use as backup systems.

        There is a shitload of NATO or NATO allied old or obsolete armour (I have seen some of it in Europe) that is perfectly usable or able to be cannibalised. It hasn't been exploited because of a lack of training in their use for Ukrainian troops.

        So far everyone has mostly concentrated on either sending Ukraine old soviet era equipment that they are trained on from Europe, or near current equipment that breaks the offensive. Now they are sending trainers fro the older gear that is lying around in Europe.

        It is a far better use than the usual NATO clean out techniques of refurbishment and a semi-gifts to dubious flash point states.

        But this war will mainly be won by training soldiers well. So far the Ukrainians appear to be doing a lot better at it than the Russian 'professionals' or their draftees in occupied territories.

  18. tsmithfield 18
    5 September 2022 at 3:06 pm

    Although I haven't linked to specific sources for my views stated above, I have relied on excellent authorities on the topic.

    For those interested in keeping up with the Ukraine war, I highly recommend Tmes Radio who have a lot of good interviews with leading military experts on the topic.

    Also, Mick Ryan, a retired Australian Major General gives a lot of good analysis.

    Michael Kofman is also a well recognised authority who gives excellent analysis on the conflict.

    Also, the analysis from The Institute for the Study of War also gives regular updates and analysis on the Ukraine conflict.

  19. Adrian Thornton 19
    5 September 2022 at 3:41 pm

    Good piece there Mike Smith, thanks.

    Of course the usual 'Standard' war mongering liberal imperialist crew come straight on to batter you with their usual regurgitated BBC, NYT, WoPo etc half truths, misinformation and straight out propaganda (and of course the couple of idiot arm chair generals who as always write too much to say absolutely nothing)…but don't worry my friend, it is plainly obvious that you will be proved before long to be on the right side of history…as the real progressive anti-imperialist Left always is.

    • Populuxe1 19.1
      5 September 2022 at 3:44 pm

      So why isn't the Russian invasion war-mongering imperialism? Or are you still harbouring some fantasy that Russia is socialist?

    • tsmithfield 19.2
      5 September 2022 at 3:51 pm

      I am against the war as well. That is why Russia needs to do the right thing and withdraw its troops so the war can end. The only reason the war is continuing is because Russia is still trying to invade Ukraine. All they need to do is leave and the war will be over.

      If a peace deal is done on any terms that involve Russia holding captured territory, it will just prove that might is right and that unjustified aggression is rewarded. That is quite a moral hazard going forward.

      So, if you are arguing that Ukraine should give up and accept a compromise you are basically arguing that the Russian invasion and the consequent death of many Ukrainians and Russians was justified.

      Doesn’t sound very peacenik to me.

      • adam 19.2.1
        5 September 2022 at 5:07 pm

        So if an independent Donbas and Luhansk region come from it, would that be bad also?

        And if it does happen, would we be better off supporting those new states to be truly independent and free?

        Or is putting our selves into a situation where we make an enemy of Russia, so we can't help them be free and independent. And they fall into being a vassal of Russia. Or keep them what they are now, a vassal of Ukraine.

        • Stuart Munro 19.2.1.1
          5 September 2022 at 6:10 pm

          These are good but difficult questions – and not really answerable from this distance, without significant local knowledge.

          Were Donbas and Luhansk truly independent, and not merely a foothold for neighbouring states' geopolitical adventurism, then in principle we should support them.

          Things are not so clear cut however, and with the populations being somewhat divided, not only between west and east leaning loyalties, but also those only trying to limit the consequences of a hostile occupation, and indications of less-than-benign conscription of residents. I doubt an accurate breakdown of resident preferences is readily available.

          The long or even medium term stability of these supposedly nascent states is probably dependent on close economic ties with one neighbour or the other – or more likely both. The best indicator of actual independence of either would probably be an attempt to conclude a separate peace – without which peace-time trade would be at best severely restricted. Thus far we are not seeing any sign of the supposed new republics withdrawing from the invasion and closing their borders to both combatants. So a peaceful neutrality is only speculation at this point.

          An indication of the reality of DPR government might be the payment of pensions. These are only available in Ukrainian controlled areas.

          tens of thousands of pensioners have registered their address as being in Ukrainian-controlled areas while still living in separatist-controlled areas, and must travel outside of separatist areas to collect their pensions on a monthly basis.

          Also, The Special Monitoring Mission of the OSCE in Ukraine has reported that in the DPR, "parallel 'justice systems' have begun operating".[205] They found this new judiciary to be "non-transparent, subject to constant change, seriously under-resourced and, in many instances, completely non-functional".

          The DPR then, is about as functional as the NZ National Party – almost any other government would be an improvement.

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    The Facts has posted –        KEY INSIGHTSOf New Zealander’s polled: Social unity/division 77%believe NZ is becoming more divided (42% ‘much more’ + 35% ‘a little more’) 3%believe NZ is becoming less divided (1% ‘much less’ + 2% ‘a little less’) ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    3 hours ago

  • Gordon Campbell on the cynical brutality of the centre-right’s welfare policies
    The centre-right’s enthusiasm for forcing people off the benefit and into paid work is matched only by the enthusiasm (shared by Treasury and the Reserve Bank) for throwing people out of paid work to curb inflation, and achieve the optimal balance of workers to job seekers deemed to be desirable ...
    Gordon CampbellBy lyndon
    4 hours ago

  • Wednesday’s Chorus: Arthur Grimes on why building many, many more social houses is so critical
    New research shows that tenants in social housing - such as these Wellington apartments - are just as happy as home owners and much happier than private tenants. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: The election campaign took an ugly turn yesterday, and in completely the wrong direction. All three ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 hours ago

  • Old habits
    Media awareness about global warming and climate change has grown fairly steadily since 2004. My impression is that journalists today tend to possess a higher climate literacy than before. This increasing awareness and improved knowledge is encouraging, but there are also some common interpretations which could be more nuanced. ...
    Real ClimateBy rasmus
    6 hours ago

  • Bennie Bashing.
    If there’s one thing the mob loves more than keeping Māori in their place, more than getting tough on the gangs, maybe even more than tax cuts. It’s a good old round of beneficiary bashing.Are those meanies in the ACT party stealing your votes because they think David Seymour is ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    8 hours ago

  • The kindest cuts
    Labour kicks off the fiscal credibility battle today with the release of its fiscal plan. National is expected to follow, possibly as soon as Thursday, with its own plan, which may (or may not) address the large hole that the problems with its foreign buyers’ ban might open up. ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    11 hours ago

  • Green right turn in Britain? Well, a start
    While it may be unlikely to register in New Zealand’s general election, Britain’s PM Rishi Sunak has done something which might just be important in the long run. He’s announced a far-reaching change in his Conservative government’s approach to environmental, and particularly net zero, policy. The starting point – ...
    Point of OrderBy xtrdnry
    14 hours ago

  • At a glance – How do human CO2 emissions compare to natural CO2 emissions?
    On February 14, 2023 we announced our Rebuttal Update Project. This included an ask for feedback about the added "At a glance" section in the updated basic rebuttal versions. This weekly blog post series highlights this new section of one of the updated basic rebuttal versions and serves as a ...
    Skeptical Science
    21 hours ago

  • How could this happen?
    Canada is in uproar after the exposure that its parliament on September 22 provided a standing ovation to a Nazi veteran who had been invited into the chamber to participate in the parliamentary welcome to Ukrainian President Zelensky. Yaroslav Hunka, 98, a Ukrainian man who volunteered for service in ...
    Open ParachuteBy Ken
    23 hours ago

  • Always Be Campaigning
    The big screen is a great place to lay out the ways of the salesman. He comes ready-made for Panto, ripe for lampooning.This is not to disparage that life. I have known many good people of that kind. But there is a type, brazen as all get out. The camera ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    23 hours ago

  • STEPHEN FRANKS: Press seek to publicly shame doctor – we must push back
    The following is a message sent yesterday from lawyer Stephen Franks on behalf of the Free Speech Union. I don’t like to interrupt first thing Monday morning, but we’ve just become aware of a case where we think immediate and overwhelming attention could help turn the tide. It involves someone ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    24 hours ago

  • Competing on cruelty
    The right-wing message calendar is clearly reading "cruelty" today, because both National and NZ First have released beneficiary-bashing policies. National is promising a "traffic light" system to police and kick beneficiaries, which will no doubt be accompanied by arbitrary internal targets to classify people as "orange" or "red" to keep ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 day ago

  • Further funding for Pharmac (forgotten in the Budget?) looks like a $1bn appeal from a PM in need of...
    Buzz from the Beehive One Labour plan  – for 3000 more public homes by 2025 – is the most recent to be posted on the government’s official website. Another – a prime ministerial promise of more funding for Pharmac – has been released as a Labour Party press statement. Who ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    1 day ago

  • Bryce Edwards: The Vested interests shaping National Party policies
    As the National Party gets closer to government, lobbyists and business interests will be lining up for influence and to get policies adopted. It’s therefore in the public interest to have much more scrutiny and transparency about potential conflicts of interests that might arise. One of the key individuals of ...
    Democracy ProjectBy bryce.edwards
    1 day ago

  • Labour may be on way out of power and NZ First back in – but will Peters go into coalition with Na...
    Voters  are deserting Labour in droves, despite Chris  Hipkins’  valiant  rearguard  action.  So  where  are they  heading?  Clearly  not all of them are going to vote National, which concedes that  the  outcome  will be “close”. To the Right of National, the ACT party just a  few weeks  ago  was ...
    Point of OrderBy tutere44
    1 day ago

  • GRAHAM ADAMS: Will the racists please stand up?
    Accusations of racism by journalists and MPs are being called out. Graham Adams writes –    With the election less than three weeks away, what co-governance means in practice — including in water management, education, planning law and local government — remains largely obscure. Which is hardly ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    1 day ago

  • Gordon Campbell on whether Winston Peters can be a moderating influence
    As the centre-right has (finally!) been subjected to media interrogation, the polls are indicating that some voters may be starting to have second thoughts about the wisdom of giving National and ACT the power to govern alone. That’s why yesterday’s Newshub/Reid Research poll had the National/ACT combo dropping to 60 ...
    Gordon CampbellBy lyndon
    1 day ago

  • Tuesday’s Chorus: RBNZ set to rain on National's victory parade
    ANZ has increased its forecast for house inflation later this year on signs of growing momentum in the market ahead of the election. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: National has campaigned against the Labour Government’s record on inflation and mortgage rates, but there’s now a growing chance the Reserve ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    1 day ago

  • After a Pittsburgh coal processing plant closed, ER visits plummeted
    This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Katie Myers. This story was originally published by Grist and is part of Covering Climate Now, a global journalism collaboration strengthening coverage of the climate story. Pittsburgh, in its founding, was blessed and cursed with two abundant natural resources: free-flowing rivers and a nearby coal seam. ...
    Skeptical Science
    1 day ago

  • September-23 AT Board Meeting
    Today the AT board meet again and once again I’ve taken a look at what’s on the agenda to find the most interesting items. Closed Agenda Interestingly when I first looked at the agendas this paper was there but at the time of writing this post it had been ...
    Greater AucklandBy Matt L
    1 day ago

  • Electorate Watch: West Coast-Tasman
    Continuing my series on interesting electorates, today it’s West Coast-Tasman.A long thin electorate running down the northern half of the west coast of the South Island. Think sand flies, beautiful landscapes, lots of rain, Pike River, alternative lifestylers, whitebaiting, and the spiritual home of the Labour Party. A brief word ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    1 day ago

  • Big money brings Winston back
    National leader Christopher Luxon yesterday morning conceded it and last night’s Newshub poll confirmed it; Winston Peters and NZ First are not only back but highly likely to be part of the next government. It is a remarkable comeback for a party that was tossed out of Parliament in ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    1 day ago

  • 20 days until Election Day, 7 until early voting begins… but what changes will we really see here?
    As this blogger, alongside many others, has already posited in another forum: we all know the National Party’s “budget” (meaning this concept of even adding up numbers properly is doing a lot of heavy, heavy lifting right now) is utter and complete bunk (read hung, drawn and quartered and ...
    exhALANtBy exhalantblog
    2 days ago

  • A night out
    Everyone was asking, Are you nervous? and my response was various forms of God, yes.I've written more speeches than I can count; not much surprises me when the speaker gets to their feet and the room goes quiet.But a play? Never.YOU CAME! THANK YOU! Read more ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    2 days ago

  • A pallid shade of Green III
    Clearly Labour's focus groups are telling it that it needs to pay more attention to climate change - because hot on the heels of their weaksauce energy efficiency pilot programme and not-great-but-better-than-nothing solar grants, they've released a full climate manifesto. Unfortunately, the core policies in it - a second Emissions ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 days ago

  • A coalition of racism, cruelty, and chaos
    Today's big political news is that after months of wibbling, National's Chris Luxon has finally confirmed that he is willing to work with Winston Peters to become Prime Minister. Which is expected, but I guess it tells us something about which way the polls are going. Which raises the question: ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 days ago

  • More migrant workers should help generate the tax income needed to provide benefits for job seekers
    Buzz from the Beehive Under something described as a “rebalance” of its immigration rules, the Government has adopted four of five recommendations made in an independent review released in July, The fifth, which called on the government to specify criteria for out-of-hours compliance visits similar to those used during ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    2 days ago

  • Letter To Luxon.
    Some of you might know Gerard Otto (G), and his G News platform. This morning he wrote a letter to Christopher Luxon which I particularly enjoyed, and with his agreement I’m sharing it with you in this guest newsletter.If you’d like to make a contribution to support Gerard’s work you ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    2 days ago

  • LINDSAY MITCHELL: Alarming trend in benefit numbers
    Lindsay Mitchell writes –  While there will not be another quarterly release of benefit numbers prior to the election, limited weekly reporting continues and is showing an alarming trend. Because there is a seasonal component to benefit number fluctuations it is crucial to compare like with like. In ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    2 days ago

  • BRIAN EASTON: Has there been external structural change?
    A close analysis of the Treasury assessment of the Medium Term in its PREFU 2023 suggests the economy may be entering a new phase.   Brian Easton writes –  Last week I explained that the forecasts in the just published Treasury Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update (PREFU 2023) was ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    2 days ago

  • CRL Progress – Sep-23
    It’s been a while since we looked at the latest with the City Rail Link and there’s been some fantastic milestones recently. To start with, and most recently, CRL have released an awesome video showing a full fly-through of one of the tunnels. Come fly with us! You asked for ...
    Greater AucklandBy Matt L
    2 days ago

  • Monday’s Chorus: Not building nearly enough
    We are heading into another period of fast population growth without matching increased home building or infrastructure investment.Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTL;DR: Labour and National detailed their house building and migration approaches over the weekend, with both pledging fast population growth policies without enough house building or infrastructure investment ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    2 days ago

  • Game on; Hipkins comes out punching
    Labour leader Chris Hipkins yesterday took the gloves off and laid into National and its leader Christopher Luxon. For many in Labour – and particularly for some at the top of the caucus and the party — it would not have been a moment too soon. POLITIK is aware ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    2 days ago

  • Tax Cut Austerity Blues.
    The leaders have had their go, they’ve told us the “what?” and the “why?” of their promises. Now it’s the turn of the would be Finance Ministers to tell us the “how?”, the “how much?”, and the “when?”A chance for those competing for the second most powerful job in the ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    3 days ago

  • MIKE GRIMSHAW:  It’s the economy – and the spirit – Stupid…
    Mike Grimshaw writes – Over the past 30-odd years it’s become almost an orthodoxy to blame or invoke neoliberalism for the failures of New Zealand society. On the left the usual response goes something like, neoliberalism is the cause of everything that’s gone wrong and the answer ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    3 days ago

  • 2023 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #38
    A chronological listing of news and opinion articles posted on the Skeptical Science Facebook Page during the past week: Sun, Sep 17, 2023 thru Sat, Sep 23, 2023. Story of the Week  Opinion: Let’s free ourselves from the story of economic growth A relentless focus on economic growth has ushered in ...
    Skeptical Science
    3 days ago

  • The End Of The World.
    Have you been looking out of your window for signs of the apocalypse? Don’t worry, you haven’t been door knocked by a representative of the Brian Tamaki party. They’re probably a bit busy this morning spruiking salvation, or getting ready to march on our parliament, which is closed. No, I’ve ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    4 days ago

  • Climate Town: The Brainwashing Of America's Children
    Climate Town is the YouTube channel of Rollie Williams and a ragtag team of climate communicators, creatives and comedians. They examine climate change in a way that doesn’t make you want to eat a cyanide pill. Get informed about the climate crisis before the weather does it for you. The latest ...
    Skeptical Science
    5 days ago

  • Has There Been External Structural Change?
    A close analysis of the Treasury assessment of the Medium Term in its PREFU 2023 suggests the economy may be entering a new phase. Last week I explained that the forecasts in the just published Treasury Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update (PREFU 2023) was similar to the May Budget BEFU, ...
    PunditBy Brian Easton
    5 days ago

  • Another Labour bully
    Back in June, we learned that Kiri Allan was a Parliamentary bully. And now there's another one: Labour MP Shanan Halbert: The Labour Party was alerted to concerns about [Halbert's] alleged behaviour a year ago but because staffers wanted to remain anonymous, no formal process was undertaken [...] The ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago

  • Climate Change: Ignoring our biggest problem
    Its that time in the election season where the status quo parties are busy accusing each other of having fiscal holes in a desperate effort to appear more "responsible" (but not, you understand, by promising to tax wealth or land to give the government the revenue it needs to do ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago

  • JERRY COYNE: A good summary of the mess that is science education in New Zealand
    JERRY COYNE writes –  If you want to see what the government of New Zealand is up to with respect to science education, you can’t do better than listening to this video/slideshow by two exponents of the “we-need-two-knowledge-systems” view. I’ve gotten a lot of scary stuff from Kiwi ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago

  • Good news on the GDP front is accompanied by news of a $5m govt boost for Supercars (but what about ...
    Buzz from the Beehive First, we were treated to the news (from Finance Minister Grant Robertson) that the economy has turned a corner and New Zealand never was in recession.  This was triggered by statistics which showed the economy expanded 0.9 per cent in the June quarter, twice as much as ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    5 days ago

  • The Scafetta Saga
    It has taken 17 months to get a comment published pointing out the obvious errors in the Scafetta (2022) paper in GRL. Back in March 2022, Nicola Scafetta published a short paper in Geophysical Research Letters (GRL) purporting to show through ‘advanced’ means that ‘all models with ECS > ...
    Real ClimateBy Gavin
    5 days ago

  • Friday's Chorus: Penny wise and pound foolish
    TL;DR: In the middle of a climate emergency and in a city prone to earthquakes, Victoria University of Wellington announced yesterday it would stop teaching geophysics, geographic information science and physical geography to save $22 million a year and repay debt. Climate change damage in Aotearoa this year is already ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    5 days ago

  • CHRIS TROTTER: Calling the big dog’s bluff
      For nearly thirty years the pundits have been telling the minor parties that they must be good little puppies and let the big dogs decide. The parties with a plurality of the votes cast must be allowed to govern – even if that means ignoring the ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    5 days ago

  • The electorate swing, Labour limbo and Luxon-Hipkins two-step
     Another poll, another 27 for Labour. It was July the last time one of the reputable TV company polls had Labour's poll percentage starting with a three, so the limbo question is now being asked: how low can you go?It seems such an unlikely question because this doesn't feel like the kind ...
    PunditBy Tim Watkin
    5 days ago

  • A Womance, and a Nomance.
    After the trench warfare of Tuesday night, when the two major parties went head to head, last night was the turn of the minor parties. Hosts Newshub termed it “the Powerbrokers' Debate”.Based on the latest polls the four parties taking part - ACT, the Greens, New Zealand First, and Te ...
    Nick’s KōreroBy Nick Rockel
    5 days ago

  • When The Internet Rushes To Your Defense
    Hi,You can’t make this stuff up.People involved with Sound of Freedom, the QAnon-infused movie about anti-child trafficker Tim Ballard, are dropping like flies. I won’t ruin your day by describing it here, but Vice reports that footage has emerged of executive producer Paul Hutchinson being inappropriate with a 16-year-old trafficking ...
    David FarrierBy David Farrier
    5 days ago

  • Doubts about Robertson’s good news day
    The trading banks yesterday concluded that though GDP figures released yesterday show the economy is not in recession, it may well soon be. Nevertheless, the fact that GDP has gone up 0.8 per cent in the latest quarter and that StatsNZ revised the previous quarter’s figure to show a ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    5 days ago

  • The Votes That Media Dare Not Speak Its Name
    .Thanks for reading Frankly Speaking ! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work..A recent political opinion poll (20 September) on TV1 presented what could only be called bleak news for the Left Bloc:National: 37%, down two points equating to 46 seatsLabour: 27%, down one point (34 ...
    Frankly SpeakingBy Frank Macskasy
    6 days ago

  • Skeptical Science New Research for Week #38 2023
    Open access notables At our roots Skeptical Science is about cognition of the results of climate science research in the minds of the entire human population. Ideally we'd be perfectly communicating understanding of Earth's climate, and perfectly understood. We can only approximate that, but hopefully converging closer to perfection. With ...
    Skeptical Science
    6 days ago

  • Failing To Hold Back The Flood: The Edgy Politics of the Twenty-First Century.
    Coming Over The Top: Rory Stewart's memoir, Politics On The Edge, lays bare the dangerous inadequacies of the Western World's current political model.VERY FEW NEW ZEALANDERS will have heard of Rory Stewart. Those with a keen eye for the absurdities of politics may recognise the name as that of the ...
    Bowalley Road
    6 days ago

  • Pick this Chris, you get the Greens. Pick the other one you get Seymour.
    A bit of a narrative has been building that these two guys, your Chris and your Chris,  are not so very different.It's true to a point. The bread and butter timidity has been dispiriting to watch, if you have a progressive disposition. It does leave the two of them relatively ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    6 days ago

  • RICHARD PREBBLE: Who won the Leaders’ debate?
    Richard Prebble writes –  There was a knockout winner of the Leaders’ debate. Check for yourself. Recall how they looked. If you cannot remember or missed it, the debate is on TVNZ’s website. Turn off the sound and ask: “Which one looks like a Prime Minister?” ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    6 days ago

  • Thursday's Chorus: GDP up an extra 33c per person per week
    Just like National when it was in government, Labour bought nominal GDP growth and momentum by pulling as hard as it could on the population lever. Photo: Lynn Grieveson / The KākāTLDR: Stats NZ has reported better-than-expected GDP growth in the June quarter, thanks largely to record-high net migration of ...
    The KakaBy Bernard Hickey
    6 days ago

  • Climate Change: National’s policy for failure
    We already know that the National Party are de facto climate change deniers who want to reverse virtually all climate change policy. So how do they think they'll cut emissions? According to their climate change spokesperson, polluting corporations will do it out of the goodness of their hearts: The ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago

  • NZ’s  big dairy company reports a massive profit jump – but the lobby group Greenpeace doesn’...
    Dairy farmers, or at least  those who are also shareholders in the Fonterra dairy co-operative would have received  a second dose of good news this week, when the dairy giant reported a massive profit  jump. This followed news of  a better sale  at the Fonterra  GDT auction this week. Net ...
    Point of OrderBy tutere44
    6 days ago

  • Big issues out of the mouths of giant babes
    A longtime New Zealand broadcaster and commentator is taking a theatrical turn in advance of the General Election to draw different kinds of attention to the issues New Zealanders will be voting on in October.In a pre-election event that invites audiences to consider New Zealand politics through a theatrical lens ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    6 days ago

  • That new hospital which Labour is promising – is it the same one which Sepuloni mentioned in May ...
    Our busy ministers – desperately busy trying to whip up voters’ support as their poll support sags, among other things – have added just one item of news to the government’s official website over the past 24 hours or so. It’s the news that the Government has accepted the Environment ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    6 days ago

  • Queenstown was keeping rates low
    On Monday, we learned that Queenstown, one of the country's largest tourist destinations, suddenly had to boil its water to avoid cryptosporidium. Now, it looks like it will last for months. Why? The usual reason: they'd been keeping rates low: Queenstown could face months of having to boil water ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago

  • Gordon Campbell on chaotic coalitions, drinking water and useless debates
    This week’s ONE News-Verian poll had the National/ACT coalition teetering on the edge of being able to govern alone while – just as precariously – having its legislative agenda vulnerable to a potential veto by Winston Peters in the House. So close, but so perilous. During the run-up to election ...
    Gordon CampbellBy lyndon
    6 days ago

  • An ill wind
    National Leader Christopher Luxon likes to bag the way the Resource Management Act worked. Though it has been repealed and replaced by the Labour government, Luxon plans, before Christmas, to repeal the new legislation and, for the foreseeable future, revert to the old Act that he has consistently criticised. ...
    PolitikBy Richard Harman
    6 days ago

  • Further Adventures with Martin the Chess Bot
    Earlier this month, I had a bit of fun with Chess.com’s worst AI, the one and only Martin Bot: https://phuulishfellow.wordpress.com/2023/09/02/nine-queens-against-martin-chess-hilarity/ Well, in the past few days, I’ve achieved a trio of notable personal firsts against Martin. I thought I would record them in the morbid interests of ...
    A Phuulish FellowBy strda221
    7 days ago

  • The Inflation Reduction Act is reducing U.S. reliance on China
    This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections On August 16, 2022, President Biden signed the Inflation Reduction Act into law. Over a year later, its climate provisions remain a hot topic. The law’s proponents argue that it’s created a boom in domestic manufacturing jobs within the United States while paving ...
    Skeptical Science
    7 days ago

  • Relief  for dairy farmers – and the NZ economy – as prices rise again at latest GDT auction
    New Zealand’s dairy  farmers  will  be relieved that prices rose  for the second  time this month at the latest Fonterra GDT auction. The encouraging  feature of the sale was the activity of  Chinese buyers who drove  up prices. As a result, the GDT price index rose 4.6%, helped by a 4.6% lift ...
    Point of OrderBy tutere44
    7 days ago

  • Democracy McNuggets
    Here is a review of last night’s Democracy McNuggets debate, delivered in the style of last night's Democracy McNuggets debate.McNugget #1This format was very advantageous for the man who speaks in lazy SLAM DUNK.To hark back a few editions: The lazy SLAM DUNK doesn’t bother to make its case. It simply offers ...
    More Than A FeildingBy David Slack
    7 days ago

  • A Forced Pause.
    Unfortunately I will need to take a bit of time off from this blog. After months of misdiagnoses and a change in GPs, my precious son is in Starship Hospital about to have major surgery. He already has had one … Continue reading → ...
    KiwipoliticoBy Pablo
    7 days ago

  • Better-than-expected BoP figures give Robertson something to bray about – but revisions helped, a...
    Buzz from the Beehive Source:  ANZ The latest balance of payments statistics – providing a broad measure of what the country earns and spends internationally – gave grist to Finance Minister Grant Robertson’s publicity mill today. The current account deficit narrowed to 7.5 per cent of ...
    Point of OrderBy Bob Edlin
    7 days ago

  • Dirty dairy corrupts our democracy
    The planning process under the RMA is meant to be one of public consultation: the council prepares a plan, and we all get to have a say on it. But it turns out that in Otago, the dirty dairying industry has been trying to rewrite the new land and water ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    7 days ago

  • Calling The Big Dog’s Bluff.
    Can This Be Possible? For nearly thirty years the pundits have been telling the minor parties that they must be good little puppies and let the big dogs decide. The parties with a plurality of the votes cast must be allowed to govern – even if that means ignoring the ...
    Bowalley Road
    7 days ago

  • Climate Change: “Offsets” aren’t
    Since we began worrying about climate change, the market fundamentalists have pushed the idea of "offsets" rather than actual emissions reductions. There's just one atmosphere after all, so in theory it doesn't matter where the reductions are made, so you can just pay someone on the other side of the ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    7 days ago

  • GRAHAM ADAMS: Is Ardern a liability for Labour?
    Ministers are pretending the former PM has simply vanished. Graham Adams writes – Late last week, Tova O’Brien asked Grant Robertson on her Stuff podcast if Jacinda Ardern should be “rolled out” to “galvanise the base” to help save Labour’s faltering campaign. Robertson laughed. ”I’m sure for ...
    Point of OrderBy poonzteam5443
    1 week ago

  • Te Whānau a Apanui and the Crown initial Deed of Settlement I Kua waitohua e Te Whānau a Apanui me...
    Māori: Kua waitohua e Te Whānau a Apanui me te Karauna te Whakaaetanga Whakataunga Kua waitohua e Te Whānau a Apanui me te Karauna i tētahi Whakaaetanga Whakataunga hei whakamihi i ō rātou tāhuhu kerēme Tiriti o Waitangi. E tekau mā rua ngā hapū o roto mai o Te Whānau ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago

  • Plan for 3,000 more public homes by 2025 – regions set to benefit
    Regions around the country will get significant boosts of public housing in the next two years, as outlined in the latest public housing plan update, released by the Housing Minister, Dr Megan Woods. “We’re delivering the most public homes each year since the Nash government of the 1950s with one ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago

  • Immigration settings updates
    Judicial warrant process for out-of-hours compliance visits 2023/24 Recognised Seasonal Employer cap increased by 500 Additional roles for Construction and Infrastructure Sector Agreement More roles added to Green List Three-month extension for onshore Recovery Visa holders The Government has confirmed a number of updates to immigration settings as part of ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago

  • Poroporoaki: Tā Patrick (Patu) Wahanga Hohepa
    Tangi ngunguru ana ngā tai ki te wahapū o Hokianga Whakapau Karakia. Tārehu ana ngā pae maunga ki Te Puna o te Ao Marama. Korihi tangi ana ngā manu, kua hinga he kauri nui ki te Wao Nui o Tāne. He Toa. He Pou. He Ahorangi. E papaki tū ana ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago

  • Renewable energy fund to support community resilience
    40 solar energy systems on community buildings in regions affected by Cyclone Gabrielle and other severe weather events Virtual capability-building hub to support community organisations get projects off the ground Boost for community-level renewable energy projects across the country At least 40 community buildings used to support the emergency response ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago

  • COVID-19 funding returned to Government
    The lifting of COVID-19 isolation and mask mandates in August has resulted in a return of almost $50m in savings and recovered contingencies, Minister of Health Dr Ayesha Verrall announced today. Following the revocation of mandates and isolation, specialised COVID-19 telehealth and alternative isolation accommodation are among the operational elements ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago

  • Appointment of District Court Judge
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    5 days ago

  • Government invests further in Central Hawke’s Bay resilience
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    6 days ago

  • Govt boost for Hawke’s Bay cyclone waste clean-up
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    6 days ago

  • Taupō Supercars revs up with Government support
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  • There is no recession in NZ, economy grows nearly 1 percent in June quarter
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    6 days ago

  • Highest legal protection for New Zealand’s largest freshwater springs
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    6 days ago

  • More support for victims of migrant exploitation
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  • Funding approved for flood resilience work in Te Karaka
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  • Further business support for cyclone-affected regions
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    1 week ago

  • New maintenance facility at Burnham Military Camp underway
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    2 weeks ago

  • New Zealand provides support to Morocco
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    2 weeks ago

  • Government invests in West Coast’s roading resilience
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    2 weeks ago

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  • Nanaia Mahuta to attend PIF Foreign Ministers’ Meeting
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    2 weeks ago

  • Government invests in top of the south’s roading resilience
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  • New Zealanders continue to support the revitalisation of te reo as we celebrate Te Wiki o te Reo Mā...
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  • New Wildlife Act to better protect native species
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    3 weeks ago

  • Further safety initiatives for Auckland City Centre
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    3 weeks ago

  • Govt confirms additional support for Enabling Good Lives
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    3 weeks ago

  • New Zealand gets AAA credit rating from S&P
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  • Appointment of Environment Court Judge
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    3 weeks ago

  • NZ’s biggest ever emissions reduction project hits milestone
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