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Two good polls for Labour and Shearer

Written By: - Date published: 6:07 pm, December 2nd, 2012 - 122 comments
Categories: david shearer, labour, polls - Tags: ,

Individual polls are nothing to get too excited about, it is the trend over time that matters. That said, the TV1 and 3 News polls tonight were both good news for Labour and Shearer.

TV1 has Labour up 3 to 35, and National down 1 to 44. Labour and the Greens are ahead, and could form a government without minor parties. Shearer is up in preferred PM stakes.

3 News also has Labour up 1.6% and Shearer up 4% as preferred PM. National is down 2, with Key down 2 to his lowest rating since 2007. Overall Labour + Greens vs. National too close to call.

The polls were taken over the period following Labour’s conference, and thus reflect the reported leadership challenge, the huge KiwiBuild announcement, and the demotion of David Cunliffe. Make of that what you will – but maybe (just maybe) the electorate is more interested in housing than media feeding frenzies.

It can take time for events to be reflected in poll changes, but these early indications are all good for David Shearer, and good for the Left!

122 comments on “Two good polls for Labour and Shearer ”

  1. red sugar 1

    You said the same thing last year Anthony 🙂

    • r0b 1.1

      Then it was probably true then too! The gap between Left and Nats is steadily closing…

    • David H 1.2

      And the Latest Roy Morgan Poll has Labour down 1 to 31.5 And the Nats down .5 to 45. The TV 1&3 polls just don’t do it for me.

  2. Sam 2

    But David Shearer is a right wing rogernome and David Cunliffe is the one true saviour of the left, how is this happening!?!

    • Mary 2.1

      That’s right. Imagine what the polls would be telling us if Shearer was rolled and replaced by a proper Labour leader?

      PS – Sorry David S, I’m sure you’re a nice guy – you may even make a good Foreign Affairs minister – or something – some day, not sure – but you need to understand that you’re doing no-one any favours by hanging around. The plight of the poor and vulnerable will never improve under your leadership. The fact of the matter is, David S, you’re simply dragging the Left down. Of course, this may be your intention, but if you really do want to stay in politics maybe you’d be more at home joining NZ First? There might even be an opening for you there coming up soon. In any case, please, David S, take your leave, for all of our sakes.

      • Sam 2.1.1

        Yeah, he’s never done anything for poor and impoverished people. All that time spent being a disciple of Roger Douglas… just disgusting.

        • Mary 2.1.1.1

          This is what I said, Sam:

          “The plight of the poor and vulnerable will never improve under your leadership.”

          And it won’t. Shearer’s taking the “Labour is a party for workers” line which a few decades ago included the disenfranchised but for Labour is no longer the case.

    • It could be that as unimpressed with Shearer as they are, maybe people still prefer him to John Key? 😛

  3. QoT 3

    these early indications are all good for David Shearer, and good for the Left!

    If one assumes that the good of Shearer and the good of the left are synonymous.

    • r0b 3.1

      As long as Shearer is leading the largest party of the left then they are, if not synonymous, at least highly correlated…

      • QoT 3.1.1

        Not when David Shearer doesn’t believe in the left/right divide, not if a Shearer-led-Labour-led government might very well lack the guts to actually do anything leftwing.

        Just because it wears a big label saying “duck” doesn’t mean it’s a duck. The quacking and waddling bits are kind of important.

        • gobsmacked 3.1.1.1

          The obvious point (already hinted at in today’s TV clips) is that the focus will switch to a potential Labour-Green gov’t … not just an ill-defined “opposition”.

          So Shearer will need to decide if he’s going to back the likes of Jones and Tamihere, or his coalition allies. He’ll need to decide pretty soon.

          The Greens are going up, and getting stronger. They’re not just there to be tacked on to a rump Labour caucus.

          • Benghazi 3.1.1.1.1

            Where have you been? Shearer is very strongly behind Tamihere. And Tamihere is strongly behind Shearer – well at least till he is selected for Waitakere.

            • Ad 3.1.1.1.1.1

              I am going to my local greens christmas function here if you’d care to join me.

              😉

            • gobsmacked 3.1.1.1.1.2

              I know Shearer supports Tamihere, but none of this has been under the spotlight.

              That’s the nub of the problem – Shearer is fine as long as he is Not-Key, or Not-Cunliffe. It’s when he has to be Shearer that he unravels.

              We can predict the media’s questions now …

              “Would you have Tamihere in your Cabinet? Or Nanaia Mahuta and Metira Turei?”

              Shearer: “Er … “

              • Mary

                “Um … I just think … err … worrying about … other people can say what … well that doesn’t mean … we just need to get on with the job of making NZ the better … I mean the best place we can …” Yay!

        • The Fan Club 3.1.1.2

          Yes yes very nice, now go off and play with the hard-left in electoral oblivion would you?

          Labour is currently the furthest left it has been since the Kirk years.

          IrishBill: You clearly don’t recall the Kirk years. Let’s see a higher level of commenting from you FC, you can do better.

          • Aotearoean 3.1.1.2.1

            You mean being a pale insipid shade of blue is far left?

          • The Fan Club 3.1.1.2.2

            oh come on, I’m not saying further left than Kirk, I’m saying further left than the 4th or 5th, which is pretty indisputable…

            • Aotearoean 3.1.1.2.2.1

              4th Labour Government yes, but 5th? You have to be kidding.

              • The Fan Club

                Not really. Look at the actual policy shifts: reform of the Reserve Bank Act, massive expansion of state sector building activity, a step back on free trade, commitment to taxes on capital…

                • Colonial Viper

                  Changes to widen the scope of the RBA merely brings it into line with successful models in Australia and Singapore etc. Those are successful economies and important trading partners.

                  There’s no expansion in state sector building activity, the 100,000 houses aren’t going to be built by a Dept of Public Works (mores the shame) they’re going to be built by Fletchers.

                  What step back on free trade? Goff and co. want in on the TPPA.

                  Re: taxes on capital Labour haven’t proposed any capital taxes, they’ve merely proposed a far weaker tax on capital gains – and only Switzerland and Turkey don’t have a CGT. Every other modern industrialised country does.

                  In summary – nothing left wing anywhere there, except in your fevered imagination.

                  EDIT – the major left wing change required is the nationalisation of large parts of NZ’s banking and financial transaction infrastructure. Now that would be “hard left”.

                  • The Fan Club

                    Yes, see, those things are also ways in which the fifth labour government was pretty weak. It turns out that inherently large centre-left parties are kinda slow moving and not particularly radical. Other ways the current party is further left than the fifth Labour Government include dull things like commitment to marriage equality now, food in schools. We’ve also got one of the strongest internal party democracies in New Zealand, which we kinda didn’t have under Clark.

                    • Colonial Viper

                      It just more third way centrist Blairism mate. A true left wing party would be taking control of the banking system, the issuance of currency, and a massive rebuilding of community resources and the commons.

              • Mary

                What about Clark’s decimation of social security? More right-wing than even some of what the Nactoids tried to do but couldn’t get away with during the Bolger/Richardson/Shipley decade of hell. All went relatively unnoticed though, of course, because nobody cares about the unproductive poor, eh? -just ask Shearer and the neighbour of his beno-on-the-roof mate. He knows all about that.

    • Colonial Viper 3.2

      I can’t detect any clear political economic philosophy of his own from Shearer, Left or Right.

      Anyhows, Labour will have to show their cards next year. I understand that all the major trading banks are predicting a probable severe down turn in both the NZ and Australian economies.

      If in response Labour go down the road of austerity for most but more economic buffers for the middle class and upper middle class, you’ll have your answer.

      • Neoleftie 3.2.1

        Perhaps shearer means that in our modern society the traditionals lines of left right delineations are now defunct. The traditional socialist left are a dying breed replaced by the subdued and ignorant masses swayed by materialism and individualism into believing that a neo lib way of life is normal and right.
        Time I think for not a return or shift to the left or a steady as you go day by day neo lib approach but another way….transitioning from the third way into the next way. A pathway that recognises resources scarcity and acts for the betterment of the massess and not just the elites at all layers of our society.
        The true question should be which grouping in labour has a plan incorporates peak oil and climate change.
        Interestingly after H1 came to old dunners town and spoke to the faithful about climate change there was a swift acceptance of this position. Topical meeting formed, labourites gathered and beheld the truth….maybe too late.
        Anyway just hope that Robertson and co has the great plan ready…
        The irony is that we just might need shearers skills and experience in the coming years.

        Time I think to unite behind the leader and co.
        Time to actively gain a power balance for the local party and to reconnect and organise.
        We need to hold the treasure benches very very soon.

    • BillODrees 3.3

      Shearer/Roberton, King, Mallar et al show all the signs of continuing the same failed policies of the past four years.  They are collectively synonymous with failure to win elections.

      Nothing has changed. The demotion of Cunliffe is a continuation of a behaviour that started when Goff’s leadership failings became glaringly obvious. Now swop Shearer for Goff.
      Backing Tamihere is a desperate attempt to shore up a failed strategy: Shearer/Robertson/King/Mallard do not get Auckland.  They think the problem is the Membership and that Cunliffe, in some weird way, is to blame for that.  

       

  4. gobsmacked 4

    But if we’re going to take heed of the poll, then it must be all of the poll. Not just cherry-picking the bits we may like.

    The same TV3 poll had results for Shearer “doing well” DOWN, “doing badly” UP.

    So a reasonable conclusion from the two polls would be …

    – National and Key continuing to lose support
    – Labour and the Greens benefitting
    – Shearer not impressing

    • r0b 4.1

      The doing well vs badly is smaller than and inconsistent with the 4% rise in preferred PM. Margin of error makes it hard to read signal from noise, so I for one will focus on the trend over time.

      • gobsmacked 4.1.1

        But it isn’t inconsistent at all.

        Come on Rob, you know how it works (indeed, you’ve said so yourself on here before). The leader of the opposition generally under-performs in the preferred PM, especially when relatively new. Name recognition, or lack of.

        Shearer will rise as preferred PM, simply by getting Labour voters to know who he is. After the past couple of weeks, more voters now know his name. Remember Helen was in the “preferred PM” ratings, years after she’d gone. And Winston consistently outranks his party – again, name recognition.

        It’s an entirely different measure from doing well versus badly.

        • r0b 4.1.1.1

          (indeed, you’ve said so yourself on here before)

          I don’t recall making any such comment before – I don’t usually read the fine print – but I have written a lot of junk here over the years, so who knows.

      • felix 4.1.2

        It’s not contradictory and it’s not complicated. I don’t think Shearer is doing particularly well, I also vastly prefer him to Key*.

        (*I know the choice is not just between Key and Shearer but I reckon in a lot of people’s minds it kinda is, due to the name recognition thing that gobsmacked raises, and the apparent tendency of ours to unnecessarily turn decisions into binary choices, and the way the media still reports politics as if FPP applied)

  5. Socialist Paddy 5

    Goff had a similar poll bounce when he dealt to Chris Carter.

    All Shearer has to do is keep on disciplining and demoting MPs.

    If he really wanted to make a name for himself he would start on the ABC crew, Mallard first.

    • gobsmacked 5.1

      I’d laugh if this wasn’t so true …

      Maybe that’s why he wants Tamihere back, just so he can kick him out a week before the election and save the day.

  6. karol 6

    I’m more concerned about having a truly left wing government.  I don’t usually comment on polls, because to me it’s the policies that matter.  Polls can also influence voter behaviour.  I wish they weren’t given so much attention.

    And the recent cheer-leading of Shearer by right wing journalists will be a factor in the mix. 

    • seeker 6.1

      “And the recent cheer-leading of Shearer by right wing journalists will be a factor in the mix.”

      A large factor I would think karol. Well said.

      • Aotearoean 6.1.1

        Yep. The right want Shearer to stay leader. I wonder why?

      • Aotearoean 6.1.2

        Actually how is this for mindless cheerleading? The Herald says “Mr Shearer’s popularity rose four points in the Colmar-Brunton poll to 15 per cent while Mr Key slipped three points to 39 per cent. This trend was echoed by the Reid Research survey.”

        But TV3’s results actually had Shearer’s doing a good job rating going down and doing a bad job rating going up. 

        Can the Herald be trusted? 

  7. irascible 7

    Reckon an analysis of the comments about Key from the respondents will show strong growth of negative reaction to him. Especially over his constant brain fades, his handling of the Parrota – Fess Nova pay fiasco and ChCh school threats and the sale of State Assets. I sense a growing belief that Key is an embarassment to the country developing among the electorate.
    Shearer has probably benefited from the fallout from the misreporting of the Labour Party Conference.

  8. Skinny 8

    It’s simple… the next election is Labour’s to lose. A freaking Goat could lead Labour and  would still win. All thats needed is a ‘smart deal maker’ shore up posts for the Greens & NZ First. The sooner the better for Peters as National have started the smear campaign already. Key is his own down fall… too loose & the trust issue is ‘true.’ The amount of swing voters who are admitting they no longer trust him is encouraging. National are a ‘one trick pony’ the rest of their line up voters don’t care for…

    • Fortran 8.1

      Skinny

      I am concrened that many here are totally underestimating the role of Russel Norman in 2014.
      His party will make unacceptable demands of Labour in the fprmation of a left wing Government.
      Labour cannot make any ploicy demands of the Greens – it will be the other way round.
      If Labour do not go with the Greens – no coalition.

  9. karol 9

    Looking at all the stats given on the 3 News poll…. they are kinda strange & they aren’t telling us the whole story, given that they are %ages.

    Of the party votes, the %age adds up to 98.7%.  Partly the shift up and down a  %age or 3 must be dependent on how well  the smaller parties are doing, and how many say “don’t know”.

    The preferred party leader adds up to 57.2% – a lot of missing answers there.

    Peters scored 5% as preferred PM, but NZ First only rated 2% in the party vote.

    Presumably the better or worse performance of a leader is a straight for and against an individual – but it doesn’t ad up to anywhere near 100%

    Key’s = 51.9% (good) – 29.4% (poor)
    Shearer = 31.6% (good) – 34.4% (poor)

    So the rest are don’t knows?  Or not better and not worse? 

    Just seems to me like a lot of %ages, and not adding up to 100% – so it’s all as clear as …..  spin.
     

    • Lanthanide 9.1

      Preferred PM has always, as long as I remember, only been around 50-70% total. I think the rest must be “no opinion” or random people.

  10. Craig Glen Eden 10

    National are performing very poorly, Colins on Q and A this morning very arrogant and reduced to calling Winston Peters a silly old man but sadly labour had no presence?? Why.

    Shearers performance according to the TV3 poll is viewed as not so good, the next few months will be interesting.

    • Benghazi 10.1

      I think his minders will keep him out of sight as much as possible.

      • ScottGN 10.1.1

        Why would they do that given that we’ve got what looks to be a decent bump in these last polls for the year?
        As for Q & A today, I guess Len Brown was the “Labour Party” rep on the show. Which if you think about it is quite neat. It shows Labour’s depth across national and local politics and allowed the mayor of our biggest city to front the message for Labour in this instance.

        • Ad 10.1.1.1

          Because shearer can now do set pieces, with a running start favourable wind and a pole vault.

          • felix 10.1.1.1.1

            “with a running start favourable wind and a pole vault”

            …and no-one else running.

        • Craig Glen Eden 10.1.1.2

          If Len Brown is Labours rep now we are screwed oh know hang we have John Tamihere now phewww! ScottGN have a look people think Shearer is performing poorly cos he is.

  11. Johan 11

    Hi ROB, Do you really think that Labour has improved in the public’s perception, or is it merely that our present govt has been slipping as of late, ie the under-performing Minister of Education Hekia Parata (novapay) and of course Paula Bennett of Soc. Dev. scheme to make youngsters more employable, have both placed the govt in a bad light? I find it very hard to believe that Mr. Shearer is the next messiah of the Labour Party. By the way ROB, what is the margin of error for this type off poll?

    • r0b 11.1

      Do you really think that Labour has improved in the public’s perception, or is it merely that our present govt has been slipping as of late,

      For wat’s it’s worth, I think a mixture of the two, probably the Nats self inflicted injuries being the main factor so far. I’d like to see that change, and for Labour to be taking the initiative with more policies like KiwiBuild.

      Margin of error – I haven’t checked these two in particular, but it’s usually around 3%.

      • karol 11.1.1

        I would really like to see Labour bring out some more policies, and ones that are innovative and truly left wing, r0b.  

        As a life-time renter, the more KiwiBuild is talked up, the more alienated I feel.  And, while I am feeling increasingly insecure about the future of affordable rental accommodation in Auckland, at least I am not one of the ones already struggling to survive.  It must be especially demoralising for those barely scraping by, to hear that this policy firstly aims to help those already able to get a mortgage together.  

        • r0b 11.1.1.1

          I share that hope! But I will continue to support Labour if they remain timid “centre-left”, just as I support the Greens and (with more reservations) Mana, and any party of the left. I am much less interested in individual parties than I am in bringing about a generally left leaning government.

          As to renters and KiwiBuild, I hope you won’t feel alienated. It isn’t aimed at the problem of affordable rental accommodation, I hope and expect another policy on that. The underlying problems that keep people trapped in rentals are the insane price of houses (see capital gains tax) and that wages are far too low (I hope and expect progress on that too!).

          • karol 11.1.1.1.1

            The problem is the continuing assumption that the answer is everyone owning their own home.  I have always chosen to rent for that reason.  And the architects of KiwiBuild are people well into the idea of home ownership & can’t see beyond it – probably people who are not only easily able to afford to buy, but are at the comfortable end of the market & benefiting from it.

            The focus should first be on building more state houses.  It would take the heat out of the destructive idea of compulsory home-ownership. 

            • bad12 11.1.1.1.1.1

              Your views on KiwiBuild are shared here as well, at worst it looks like those within Labour who have gained the most from the Monopoly game that has driven house prices through the roof have now realized that their children have little chance of being able to gain home ownership without Government assistance,

              Hence the flagship Labour policy of Kiwibuild, the Socialism of, for, and, by the middle class,

              The economics of Kiwibuild stack up in so far as building an extra 10,000 houses a year goes in such things as employment opportunities across the economy and added demand for the goods that will make such housing homes,

              But, unless the same effort is put into building State Housing that can be offered to those who toil daily at or just above the minimum wage such a policy as KiwiBuild will simply continue to build the economic gap between those who have and those who have not…

  12. karol 12

    Interesting that now it’s pretty much accepted that it’s Lab-Green vs Nat.  None of the higher moral ground arguments about the single party with the most votes.

    • r0b 12.1

      Yes indeed – I think that meme was a 2008 thing.

    • Sunny 12.2

      I thought Paddy Gower mentioned that National might still get the most votes but miss out on Government with Shearer an “accidental Prime Minister.” Expect to hear that meme across the MSM…

  13. Aotearoean 13

    He may survive the NewYear.

    • Benghazi 13.1

      Yes if the members give up, he will. But if the members lobby their MPs there might be a few who respond in the trigger vote. If Shearer were to win a party-wide vote in the New Year then he’d be strongly set to contest 2014 with a full party machine backing him. Will he have the guts to seek that mandate?

  14. Northshoreguynz 14

    Left/right are soooo 19th century. Interventionist/non interventionist has more meaning these days.

    • karol 14.1

      I disagree. That’s only if you accept some underlying right wing ideas that have ben part of neoliberalism.  There is also left and right wing interventionism.  A left wing one for the 21st century would look like this – I think linked earlier by DTB (?).

      To tackle the 21st century ‘giants’ we need a new social 
      settlement, which will:
      ● give priority to promoting well-being for all and 
      reducing inequalities;
      ● work within environmental limits;
      ● be able to function well without relying on economic 
      growth – because growth is uncertain and anyway 
      there’s a real danger that unchecked growth will wreck 
      the planet; 
      ● shift power from elites towards ordinary citizens and 
      help to transform the relationship between citizens and 
      the state;
      ● foster solidarity and reciprocity, through shared 
      investment, ownership and benefit.
       

      The right wing kind could be Muldoonist, of NZ First.  It would not end the struggles for those on lowest incomes, and would be socially conservative – favouring wealthy white men.  Actually neoliberalism does involve interventionism, when the benefits to the elite start to fall off.  

      • Ad 14.1.1

        Really lovely link there karol

        • Northshoreguynz 14.1.1.1

          My point is that lot of middle New Zealand no not see themselves as ” left” and struggle to vote Labour because of its perceived leftness. But having seen what a non interventionist government looks like, an interventionist one looks like a good alternative.

          • karol 14.1.1.1.1

            That would be because of the constant bad press the MSM have given the left over the last few decades, nsg.  It’s doesn’t mean clear differences between left and right policies and practices do not exist.  Couldn’t write that without all the negatives – but  it means, in reality, there are clear differences between left and right.

            Why continue the misinformation of the MSM?  Better to put a real and positive left wing platform in front of the public. 

  15. Saarbo 15

    The poles stuff up on NZ First. In 2014 Winston will get over 5%, and Winston will decide the Coalition. Chances are he will go with National and give them a 3rd term…I think he has given the incumbent government 3rd terms in the past…Winston will always look after Winston first and he will rather be number 2 rather than number 3.

    But people are finally seeing how hopeless National are, its taken them a while but it is happening.  

  16. Chalupa Batman 16

    This must really be annoying some lefties…probably hoping to see a negative poll

  17. Bill 17

    So Key and National are now so bad in some peoples’ minds that the non-alternative is looking like an alternative. Whoopee-fucken-doo.

  18. Centre Leftist (Tory troll) 18

    I will be happy if no group needs to rely on Winston to form power be it National or Labour/Greens.

  19. millsy 19

    Good to see the Greens holding their own still. Thought the un-PC QE talk would hurt them a little bit.

    Labour is within striking distance…

  20. xtasy 20

    Well, the polls seem to show that things are really getting bad, and that more people are hurting due to job losses, struggling to make ends meet and seeing no progress for themselves under this present government.

    The gloss is coming off Mr Smile and Wave, and the front bench of the government is largely also not up to it. That is my explanation for Labour picking up a bit more in support.

    I doubt very much whether Shearer’s speech, the announced Kiwi Build plan, his demotion of Cunliffe and marginally improved image (when facing the media) has all that much to do with the ratings.

    By the way Shearer is clearly considered less of a good performer, most of the polled rating him not doing a good job.

    What annoyed me when watching the news was, Shearer resolutely stating to journalists, that HE will lead Labour into the next election in 2014. It seems he does not give any consideration to what the membership may think and prefer. So he will try to keep a grip on the caucus, and to stifle any bit of dissent. If I was Cunliffe, I would perhaps wonder what the hell I would hang around for, given Hipkin’s recent barkings and Shearer’s stubborn determination. Labour may perhaps lose one of its most competent MPs, I fear.

    Shearer may in the end actually “lead” Labour into the next election, but I doubt very much, he will “lead” Labour and the left to a victory. If that happens at all, it will be by “default” and nothing else.

    That would not bode well for how Labour under Shearer would manage in government.

    But at this stage: Every bit more of a loss for National must be welcome.

  21. Jenny 21

    I don’t often put up comments that lay out all the horror of approaching climate change. To keep stating and restating the obvious is often to invite giving into despair. But mainly I don’t do it because it is all too self evident.

    Also, I feel that at some level, most, if not all people know in the back of their minds, that this is a problem, but that is where this problem is kept, at the back of their minds.

    However now that the Labour Party is led by a blatant climate change ignorer, who in his singular person openly, encapsulates this view. I thought it might be worthwhile.
    The party that David Shearer leads is in a position where, (unlike powerless individual citizens like myself), they could do something meaningful about climate change. So the leader of the Labour Party needs to be grabbed and shaken awake from his current decided ignorer course.

    However the horror story I am about to relate about climate change is different, in that it points out that the vast majority, do know, about the approaching horror of climate change. All that is required for people to bring it from the back of their awareness into the front of their active concerns, is leadership.

    The shocking thing is, that this leadership is missing. Those in prominent positions that we look to for leadership, are not giving it.

    They better put down their guitar and start doing their job.

    Oklahoma dust storm

    ….Two years ago, just 57% of Americans believed climate change was happening. By March this year, the number had risen to 66% and by September to 70%. That survey was taken a month before tropical storm Sandy hit New Jersey and New York, but after a series of heatwaves and wildfires, the Oklahoma dust storm, crop failure and the unprecedented drought, it is clear that the penny has dropped about extreme weather events.

    For the first time in this debate in the US, the majority seems convinced that self-interest is best served by belief rather than denial. Not before time. Whatever the deniers and sceptics say, and there are still plenty of them in the US and Britain, the science of climate change is returning some worrying figures, which seem to presage a rise of well over 2°C in global temperatures by the end of the century.
    The evidence is impressively varied. Sea levels are rising more sharply than predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, in fact, 60% faster. Polar ice is melting three times faster than in the 1990s, according to research published last week by the US National Snow and Ice Data Centre. High pressure anomalies over Greenland have been affecting the climate of North America and northern Europe since 2007, with many knock-on effects. Last week, it was reported that acidification of the sea, caused by absorption of CO2, is now corroding the shells of tiny marine snails, which are an essential part of the food web. And in North America, the drought, which now threatens next year’s crop of winter wheat, shows no sign of ending. This year has recorded a drop of 3% in farmers’ incomes and crop insurers have already paid out $6.3bn.

    Henry Porter The Observer, Sunday 2 December 2012

  22. karol 22

    And here we have the MSM writing as though the story of Cunliffe being disloyal is a proven and uncontested fact.  Many like Vernon Small, probably reckon if Key’s going down, a right wing party lead by Shearer is the next best option.

    • just saying 22.1

      That’s the way I’m reading it Karol.
      For those with no other source of information, it is what is being believed too.
      Pity we don’t get a vote on writers for the msm.

  23. Matthew Hooton 23

    It’s actually three good polls for David Shearer: http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2012/4842/
    Looks like he will be prime minister in two years, even if all those ex-NLP, ex-Alliance extremists who have rejoined Labour in the last few years don’t like it.

    • Socialist Paddy 23.1

      He might be Prime Minister in a couple of years Matthew but which party will he be leading? The Labour Party or a pale insipid Tamihere Mallard Cosgrove inspired son of Rogernomics party?

      • Matthew Hooton 23.1.1

        Well, according to these polls, he will be leading a Labour/Green/Mana coalition (or “confidence and supply deal”) which will surely be the most left-wing government since Kirk, and possibly more left-wing than that. The fact so many writers and commentators at TS see him as right-wing suggests many who write here are way outside the mainstream of NZ politics (and would also be way outside the mainstream in Australia, Canada or EU).

        • lprent 23.1.1.1

          And in that coalition, Labour would be far to the right of the Labour of the mid-90s to 2008. In that scenario, the obvious left response is to vote for parties that are actually left. That way you can push any resulting coalition closer to something useful.

          Voting strategically is the MMP way.

          And Matthew, I suspect that you are pretty mistaken about the mainstream. What you are a describing are firstly people who vote and those who have not already left. We have more than a million exported kiwis who voted with their feet, and 800k here who didn’t bother to vote.

        • geoff 23.1.1.2

          “many who write here are way outside the mainstream of NZ politics”

          Matthew, are you including yourself in that statement?

          Here’s an excerpt from ‘The Hollow Men’, pg 42-43
          ‘Hooton ended the email by saying: “We are going to be an outstanding success. I just hope you…don’t think I am a populist. I’m not. I’m a right wing academic neocon ultra“‘ (emphasis mine)

          This is from an email Matthew Hooton sent Don Brash when he was acting as his advisor in 2003.

          It is astounding that this man(hooton) has wormed his way back into the system such that he can somehow present himself as a centre-right moderate on forums such as National Radio.

          • Matthew Hooton 23.1.1.2.1

            Absolutely I include myself. My personal political views are well to the right of the NZ mainstream, to the extent that they aren’t really relevant (only policy ideas that may actually happen matter all that much). I at least can see it – many of the people writing here seem to think that if only Labour would express their personal far-left views, Labour would be ahead in the polls. That’s wrong.
            PS, the email you refer to do was meant to be a bit ironic and self-deprecating, but ol’ Hagar doesn’t do either, so he portrayed it as a solemn statement of political belief, as is her prerogative as a far-left propagandist.

            • geoff 23.1.1.2.1.1

              So why do you comment on the standard?

            • Pascal's bookie 23.1.1.2.1.2

              I don’t think Hager really thinks you’re academic there Hoots.

            • felix 23.1.1.2.1.3

              “the email you refer to do was meant to be a bit ironic and self-deprecating, but ol’ Hagar doesn’t do either, so he portrayed it as a solemn statement of political belief”

              What’s the difference? You said you’re ultra right wing, he reported that you’re ultra right wing, and as you admit to this very day, you are ultra right wing.

              What exactly got lost in the translation, Matt?

              • Pascal's bookie

                back when he wrote the email, ‘neocons’ were the trendy edgy rightwing thing to be. But when they, as predicted by anyone who wasn’t an idiot, fucked up everything they touched, there was a global reset to ‘classical liberal’.

          • xtasy 23.1.1.2.2

            geoff:

            The fact Matthew Hooton gets away with it is: The NZ MSM media have become more superficial, more commercially focused, they largely loved Key and the Nats when they led their election campaign in 2008, and they still clung to falling for and presenting smart-alec “Mr Smile and Wave” in the last election campaign.

            With most media in NZ being in the hands of a few corporate players, with a new breed of “laissez faire” mentality bred young, career minded journos, many only knowing what happened in the 1980s and 1990s from history books and media archives, all geared to “succeed” and present “news” in “infotainment” style, with little substance, guys like Hooton swim in warm, comfortable waters.

            Just look at the front pages of the leading “papers” and their websites.

            It is all endless distraction with crime, traffic accidents, freak weather, scandals, sports news and so forth, delivering “zilch” of real substance. Much of social media is also not delivering much information of value.

            Hooton is a corporate man, a consultant and adviser, and also commenter, nurturing exactly the kind of politics as you hint with your reference to his past.

            In some ways he represents to traditional, old style “vacuum cleaner door to door salesman”, once a model is out of fashion, he grabs the next one to hold up high. The new “model” is “Nat Light” with Shearer.

            • geoff 23.1.1.2.2.1

              I agree with pretty much all of what you’re saying.
              I am specifically interested in knowing who makes the decision to have him and so many other right-leaning commentators on RadioNZ afternoons. The balance has been skewed to the right for a long time now.

    • lprent 23.2

      If you define good polls as pottering along at the same levels Labour was at the start of last year, then I suppose you are right. I just regard it as random variations

      The only significiant change in the polls between then and now is that National is down, the Greens and NZFirst are up, and Act has largely disappeared into the United Future black hole.

      Basically the effect of the current Labour caucus this year has been to show that they can alienate many of their own members while gaining no traction.

      • Matthew Hooton 23.2.1

        lprent – the polls suggest Labour/Green are at 48%! That is better than in:

        1999: http://www.electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_1999/e9/html/e9_partI.html

        2005: http://www.electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2005/
        and

        2008: http://www.electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2008/

        It is the same as Labour/Green got in 2002 when there was no effective opposition: http://www.electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_1999/e9/html/e9_partI.html

        Even taking the Greens out, Labour’s support alone is now higher that it was in the 2008 election under Clark.

        Polls don’t really get much better than this for an opposition, especially when the incumbent prime minister is so popular.

        If the leadership had changed to Cunliffe a fortnight ago, I suspect many here at TS would be hailing these numbers as proof the leadership change had worked.

        • lprent 23.2.1.1

          Ha. Love that selective cherrypicking. Given the variation of +/- 2%, Labour is pretty well exactly where they were in the 2008 election. And look at the polls for the start of 2008. They dipped markedly during that year. So over the last 4 years Labour has pretty well remained static at a historic low point apart from dipping for the 2011 election.

          The change in the Green/Labour balance has all been to the Greens. This has been whilst the whole electorate has shifted left. What does that tell you about how the public views Labour? Sounds more like my scenario than your rather optimistic one.

          Shearer is just a symptom of the problem inside the Labour caucus. They are out of step with the electorate, and rapidly running out of time.

          Updated, and just to drive the point home.

          2005 election Labour = 41.1% Greens = 5.3%

          2008 election, Labour = 33.99% Greens = 6.72%
          http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2008/4345/

          2011 election Labour = 27.48% Greens = 11.06%
          http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2012/4842/

          Nov 12-25 poll Labour = 31.5% Greens = 13.5%

          As I said, cherrypicking the numbers.

          Not exactly a resounding degree of support for Labour. With the policy direction that Labour are going right now, and the often half-arsed handling they use, I suspect that the Greens and maybe even Mana will continue to rise.

          Labour’s move to the right of where it was under Helen just seems to be feeding the Greens support. And I can testify that it is really hard for long-time Labour supporters to even think of voting Greens. But by the look of it, that is where a lot of us are going to go.

          • Matthew Hooton 23.2.1.1.1

            I don’t think that looking at actual election results can be called “cherrypicking”. Also, the polls tend to overestimate National by at least a point or two (as I know from some awful election nights in 1993, 1996 and 2011) so Labour/Green is now clearly ahead (remember National and its allies won in 2011 over Labour/Green/NZ1 by fewer than 10,000 votes).

            • Pascal's bookie 23.2.1.1.1.1

              Agree re National’s weak as 2011 mandate. Their big-noting to the contrary was always going to bite them.

            • lprent 23.2.1.1.1.2

              If you remember how you started, you made an assertion about Shearer.

              Well, according to these polls, he will be leading a Labour/Green/Mana coalition (or “confidence and supply deal”) which will surely be the most left-wing government since Kirk, and possibly more left-wing than that. The fact so many writers and commentators at TS see him as right-wing suggests many who write here are way outside the mainstream of NZ politics (and would also be way outside the mainstream in Australia, Canada or EU).

              What I was pointing out was that this last 9 months has made bugger all difference in Labour’s polls compared to the last 4 years. It might be a more ‘left’ coalition that results. That has absolutely nothing to do with either Shearer or the Labour caucus.

              Since 2008, the Labour caucus has distinctly moved right in their policies and orientation. As is showing in the polls, the electorate has moved away from that with the slow movement to alternatives leftwards of Labour. FFS at present even NZ First is distinctly left of Labour on most of their economic positions.

              The nett effect has Labour mired in the same low 30 percentages that they received in 2008 getting a drip feed of volatile voters (ie “presidential”) from the centre whilst bleeding voters and activists leftwards. I guess that is why Shearer is so reluctant to look at the left-right divide.

              Whilst the Horizon poll is self-selecting and pretty inaccurate, what has been interesting is looking at where people are actually moving from and to. The TS is quite clearly not “mainstream” (most are activists and/or tech literate who are seldom mainstream), but it is bleeding edge. The feel of what people are talking about here usually anticipates the Horizion movement by weeks, and the polls by months.

              It is like the tech industry in that way

              BTW: You were cherry picking by writing up the Shearer “results” when you described the Green/Labour combined polling rather than the Labour polling itself. Always looks better when you can claim someone else’s hard work as that of your own ‘hero’ eh?

              • McFlock

                Not so sure about your interpretation, Lprent. 
                       
                Over five years Labour went from 40% to settling in the high/mid 20s. It wasn’t a sudden sustained drop, though there were significant peaks and troughs. It’s just that the peaks never seemed to be as large as the troughs.
                    
                In one year they’re back to the low/mid 30s. Again, gradual with peaks and troughs. 
                       
                Whether they can get a few roymorgan 35+ results by the Q2 next year is an issue. 

                • Olwyn

                  In June 2011, Labour under Goff was polling at 36%. http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2011/4675/ In the election later that year they polled 27%. The 36% was seen as a high point at the time, and I remember people getting excited about it on this site. Getting back to the mid thirties from the low of 27% is getting back into the margin-of-error range around 30%, where Labour was for most of the 2008-2011 period. The difference is that back then, National was still popular, and the Greens were polling at 6.5%. As people get disenchanted with National, the Greens, and not Labour, seem to be the main beneficiaries.

                  • McFlock

                    Yep, true enough.
                              
                    But whether the problem with Labour performing sluggishly against the Greens is a result of clear-minded consideration of Labour’s not-left-enough policy, or simply the result of a year of pissing in, out, and all around the tent by all concerned is certainly an open question.
                         
                    And Shearer putting a bit of stick about while Key eats maggots doesn’t seem to have done any harm.

        • felix 23.2.1.2

          “Even taking the Greens out, Labour’s support alone is now higher that it was in the 2008 election under Clark.”

          Labour lost that election you dunce paid hack.

          • Colonial Viper 23.2.1.2.1

            Gawd you can be cruel, and its me talking 😛

            • geoff 23.2.1.2.1.1

              Cruel? Have you read the hollow men and seen what Matthew Hooton got up to? felix is being very generous.

            • felix 23.2.1.2.1.2

              😀

              • fatty

                Geoff is right, its a fair call.
                Hooton’s cheerleading for Shearer is good for a laugh, but we must remember that some people could read those posts and think Hooton was being serious.

          • Matthew Hooton 23.2.1.2.2

            It may have lost but it only lost very narrowly (I was on TV3 that night and no one was prepared to call it until very late in the evening) and that was because the Greens did quite badly (only got 7% of the vote) and because Winston Peters was out. So, for Labour to be above its 2008 result, and the Greens well above suggests Labour/Green would win were an election held today.

            • gobsmacked 23.2.1.2.2.1

              Yes, Labour/Greens would win, and I’d be happy. Sadly, the election is never held without a campaign before it. We can’t sneak in under the radar.

              And Matthew, you know perfectly well what Joyce & co will do.

              New Headline: “Taser all sickness beneficiaries: roll out trial in South Auckland”.

              Greens – appalled, opposed. NZ First – impressed, in favour.

              Shearer – flibby flobb filubby …

              Next Headline: Opposition divided, Shearer confused, Opposition down 5%.

    • Saarbo 23.3

      You know as well as the rest of us that Shearer will choke in the hard graft of the 2014 campaign. With Shearer the probability of another”show me the money” moment is high.

      He is doing well because people are finally recognising how atrocious National are. 

      Still if he does well, an average Labour leader will still be better for NZ than this National government, lets be honest, they are hopeless.

    • felix 23.4

      Hilarious to hear Matthyawn on the radio describing this site as “bizarre”.

      He somehow forgot to mention that he’s a long-time and increasingly regular participant in it.

      Funny that.

  24. John Key has been eating bugs, a few more years of his austerity and people will be forced to eat bugs to stay alive.

    • Craig Glen Eden 24.1

      Yeah Im sure he has eaten way worse and washed it down with more than water.Wonder if he was wearing that nice pink shirt?

    • the pigman 24.2

      Don’t worry kc, he’s had plenty of practice swallowing “dead rats” over the past 4 years. Lucky for him he still has another two years to dole them out to an increasingly hungry and desperate populace.

  25. bad12 25

    Labour could go no other way but up in the polls after the party agreed to ‘democratize’ the selection of the party leader,

    Labour left me a long long time ago but the move to allow the membership a 40% say in who will be the party leader even had the likes of me nodding in approval,

    I can but await the day when Labour goes further and gives all sectors of the party a say in who will make up the Cabinet as well,(we might just start to see then a Labour Party who’s Ministers reflect the wishes of the rank and file while in Government),

    I sincerely hope that the question of leadership is triggered in the Labour caucus in February which will not only test the system of voting but also give the electorate the surety of whoever should win such a contest has the majority of support across the whole party

  26. Johan 26

    Matthew Hooton, with his comments above appears to be pushing for support for David Shearer as Labour Leader, despite Mr. Hooton being an evangelical card carrying National supporter. Why not, after all in a public debate John Key would make mince meat out of David Shearer.
    It appears that The Labour Party caucus is under the illusion that they simply must get more Labour voters out to the ballot box on election day to become the new govt. For myself, and the many swing voters that I have spoken to, the reason for not voting for Labour in the last election, may partly lie with the unpallitible Labour Party policies.
    egg Handing out the doll to people who should be working. This rubs many working class people, who would normally vote Labour, the wrong way. I am all in favour of a hand-up but not supporter of generational doll bludgers. Also, Labour needs to go back and stress its core Labour Policies, affordable lodgings, food, income etc. Too many elected Labour members are only concerned about promoting their own particular lifestyle and not the core values of the Labour Party.
    I, for one would not be jumping up and down with delight, when the poll was a very small one, 1000 people and a margin of error of 3.1%.
    Oh yes, when someone polls me, which hasn’t happened often, I give the exact opposite to how I feel.

    • millsy 26.1

      So do you want the poor on the streets?

      What policies would you see Labour implement or drop?

    • bad12 26.2

      This happens to be the most stupid comment i have read on any blog-site in the last year,

      For your info,(i can barely keep myself as addressing you as dick-head), the supply of labour is now a market where those with the most marketable skills get employed first and those with the least get employed last, (if at all),

      I doubt you will understand this simple explanation of marketized labour simply because you either choose not to or your far too dull witted to be able to grasp ‘market concepts’,

      Its really simple, take the tomatoes on offer at the supermarket, the best looking, firmest tomatoes are easily sold to the canny shopper, left unsold in the tomato bin are the tomatoes that are soft or blemished in some way shape or form,

      Such is the same with a ‘labour market’ those with their product for sale, in this case their labour are sorted by those wishing to purchase labour, the employers, employed first are those who possess the skills needed in the particular part of the economy thye are attempting to sell their labour into,

      Employed last,(if at all), are those with the least skills and who for whatever reason those purchasing the labour see or feel are not right for the particular employment much the same as the soft or blemished tomatoes will be left unsold in the supermarket tomato bin,

      If, of course you are suggesting there is employment in the economy for all those who seek it i have just wasted a portion of my valuable time attempting to educate you and the epithet i amoverly tempted to apply to you as a descriptive is well suited….

  27. Tracey 27

    I listen to DS on the radio this morning, and whatever “faction” anyone may be in, or whatever opinion they hold, they all must surely agree he doesn’t speak well. He started to call his caucus government, and stumbled a few times. The problem with this is WHAT crucial word will he substitute that the media and government will pounce on, especially during a campaign. A poor speaker, such as the PM was, is only tolerable when you are up against a 9 year govt. Mostly people expect some articulate speaking from their leader.

  28. Tracey 28

    Matthew you almost seem to be suggesting that to be in government you have to pretend to be whatever the middle of NZ wants, and you may be right but it means lying about your true intentions (and doing that afterwards, aka some policy implementation by this govt).

    You bemoan activists etc rejoining the Labour party, yet isn’t this the crux of democracy? Namely that people with certain views gravitate together to find a way to make them so. You seem to be suggesting that the way is more properly to work out what most people want, then say you will do what they want, get elected and then do some different stuff which will take longer to unwind AND spin and pr and market it to look less like what it is. I’m not sure how that befits a democracy. Mr Dunne is kind of the pin-up boy for “believe whatever you need to believe to get a big pay packet from government” or better still “don’t really believe anything in case it won’t get you re-elected. He may in fact be the biggest bludger sucking at the welfare teat we’ve ever had.

    Activists don’t hide so we see their intentions for what they really are. There’s an honesty about that which can serve society well.

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  • Labour’s 2023 election manifesto
    This morning Health Minister Andrew Little effectively unveiled Labour's 2023 election manifesto: 5,000 cases a week in Auckland alone: Thousands of people will be infected with Covid-19 every week even with vaccination levels at 90 per cent, and hospitals face being overwhelmed once restrictions are eased and borders opened, ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    5 days ago
  • Don't Blame James.
    Emissions Impossible! So, don’t be too hard on poor James Shaw. His pathetic little To-Do list is, indeed, totally inadequate to the crisis. But, you know what? He’ll be lucky to get half of the items ticked-off. There’s just too many entrenched interests – not the least of whom are ...
    5 days ago
  • The “Pulpit of Strewth”
    Barry Soper is one half of one of one of those right-wing husband-and-wife duos in which the Herald seems to specialise. In today’s issue, he has a piece that doesn’t quite reach the heights (or depths) of a Hoskings-style anti-government hostility, but which does provide an interesting example of the ...
    Bryan GouldBy Bryan Gould
    5 days ago
  • Gordon Campbell on the epic fails of Kris Faafoi
    Ever since Winston Peters first breathed life into this government in 2018, its own branding has been all about social justice and how we all need to be “kind” to each other. Somehow, Kris Faafoi must have missed the memo. His performance in the immigration portfolio (in particular) has neither ...
    5 days ago
  • NZ Politics Daily: 14 October 2021
    Today’s NZPD testimonial from Mike Treen, Advocate, Unite Union “Please continue your incredible work compiling these news digests. As someone operating in the fields of advocacy for workers and the broader social justice areas it is invaluable to be able to check what is happening in the media relating to the issues I have to deal ...
    Democracy ProjectBy bryce.edwards
    5 days ago
  • Overconfident Idiots: Why Incompetence Breeds Certainty
    This is a re-post from the Thinking is Power website maintained by Melanie Trecek-King where she regularly writes about many aspects of critical thinking in an effort to provide accessible and engaging critical thinking information to the general public. Please see this overview to find links to other reposts from Thinking is Power. ...
    6 days ago
  • Climate Change: Abandoning ambition
    When Labour was first elected to power in 2017, they promised us "[an] ambitious plan to take real action on climate change". Four years and a lot of foot-dragging later, they've finally released that plan. And its not what was promised. Where to begin? Firstly, they've taken the Climate Change ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    6 days ago
  • Many e-cigarette vaping liquids contain toxic chemicals: new Australian research
    Alexander Larcombe, Telethon Kids Institute   From October 1, it’s been illegal to buy e-liquids containing nicotine without a prescription from a doctor everywhere in Australia, except South Australia. But vaping with nicotine-free e-liquids is not illegal in Australia (though in some jurisdictions the e-cigarette devices themselves are illegal). Vaping ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    6 days ago
  • Young adults worldwide have blunt message for governments: ‘We don’t trust you.’
    This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Karin Kirk Elizabeth Marks describes herself as “a psychologist who works on difficult problems.” Her past research aimed at helping people cope with challenging health conditions, apt training, it appears, for taking on climate change issues. A few years ago, she altered ...
    6 days ago
  • Making ‘Second Age’ Hobbits Work: Amazon Series Speculation
    Time for a good old-fashioned fandom furore. The Tolkien fandom hasn’t had a proper one of those since the Great Nudity Scandal of October 2020… so it clearly must be time to pontificate from on-high about a television series we still know vanishingly little about. This time the subject ...
    6 days ago
  • NZ Politics Daily: 13 October 2021
    Today’s NZPD testimonial from Dr Lara Greaves, Political scientist, University of Auckland: “I love the NZ Politics Daily emails as they help me to keep on top of current events. It’s incredibly easy to skim through and follow the links. I really appreciate these as it means that I am exposed to a ...
    Democracy ProjectBy bryce.edwards
    6 days ago
  • The Data and Statistics Bill and the OIA
    The government introduced a new Data and Statistics Bill today to modernise and replace the 45-year old Statistics Act. Part of the Bill re-enacts the existing confidentiality regime (with one exception), which while a secrecy clause isn't an especially controversial one. Another part is aimed at removing "outdated" (inconvenient) limits ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Graham Adams: The debate over the $55 million media fund erupts again
    RNZ’s Mediawatch and a video clip viewed 42,000 times keep the topic of the Public Interest Journalism Fund fizzing. Graham Adams reports.   A week ago, the NZ Taxpayers’ Union posted a short video clip of the exchange in Parliament between Jacinda Ardern and Judith Collins in which the National ...
    Democracy ProjectBy bryce.edwards
    1 week ago
  • Multiple sclerosis: the link with earlier infection just got stronger – new study
    Scott Montgomery, UCL For most of the time since the first description of multiple sclerosis (MS) in 1868, the causes of this disabling disease have remained uncertain. Genes have been identified as important, which is why having other family members with MS is associated with a greater risk of developing ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    1 week ago
  • Hit hard by the pandemic, researchers expect its impacts to linger for years
    Sora Park, University of Canberra; Jennie Scarvell, University of Canberra, and Linda Botterill, University of Canberra   The impacts of COVID-19 on Australian university researchers are likely to have consequences for research productivity and quality for many years to come. According to an online survey of academics at the University ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    1 week ago
  • Covid and free speech
    by Don Franks Some commentators have likened the struggle against Covid 19 to the world war experience. To those of us not alive in those times, that comparison can only be academic. What the anti virus battle reminds me of much more is an industrial strike. In my twenties and ...
    RedlineBy Admin
    1 week ago
  • “Angry Blowhards”
    In today’s Herald, their excellent columnist, Simon Wilson, takes to task those “shouty” people whom he further describes as “angry blowhards”. They are those whose prime reaction to the pandemic is anger – an anger they seamlessly (and perhaps unwittingly) transfer from the virus to the government. The basis for ...
    Bryan GouldBy Bryan Gould
    1 week ago
  • Looking Forward To 2022.
    Future Tense? Okay, so that’s where we are in 2022. Living in a New Zealand where all the usual rules of politics once again apply. And, guess what? Jacinda’s government, once again, isn’t doing very well – not very well at all.LET’S PLAY A GAME. Let’s pretend we’re half-way through ...
    1 week ago
  • Gordon Campbell on Covid mandates, and the Covid pill
    The cliché about “living with Covid” will not mean life as we’ve known it, Jim. Vaccination is fast becoming a condition of employment, and also a requirement to participate in aspects of social life, such as travel, attending bars, cafes, and concerts etc. These protective measures enjoy a high level ...
    1 week ago
  • NZ Politics Daily: 12 October 2021
    Today’s NZPD testimonial from Prof Alan Bollard, Professor of Practice at the School of Government, Victoria University of Wellington; Chair of the Infrastructure Commission: “NZ Politics Daily” provides a great public service – a quick and unbiased way to check policy announcements and analysis every morning.” Anyone can sign up to NZPD ...
    Democracy ProjectBy bryce.edwards
    1 week ago
  • Legal Beagle: A submission on the COVID-19 Public Health Response Amendment Bill (No 2)
    I have made a submission on the COVID-19 Public Health Response Amendment Bill (No 2).In preparing it, I looked at the Hansard for the first reading debate, and got name-dropped as someone likely to make a submission. So, of course I did. I focus on a small bit of the ...
    1 week ago
  • Hard News: More tales from the Medicinal Cannabis Scheme
    You may have read last week that two years after the publication of regulations for medicinal cannabis – and three years after the enabling legislation – two local products from a local manufacturer have finally met the minimum quality standards for prescription. You may also be interested to know that ...
    1 week ago
  • Climate Change: Real action requires government
    Over the weekend someone pointed me at a journal article on "The Poverty of Theory: Public Problems, Instrument Choice, and the Climate Emergency". Its a US law journal article, so is a) very long; and b) half footnotes (different disciplines have different norms), but the core idea is that the ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Climate Change: Not doing our bit
    Last month the US and EU announced they would push an agreement to cut methane emissions by 30% (from 2020 levels) by 2030 at the upcoming climate change conference in Glasgow. The good news is that New Zealand is looking at joining it. The bad news is that that won't ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    1 week ago
  • Delta’s Week Of Doom.
    Classic Shot: Are the Prime Minister’s formidable communication skills equal to the task of getting her government’s anti-Covid campaign back on track?IF JACINDA ARDERN thought last week was bad, the week ahead promises to be even worse. Sixty community cases of Covid-19, one of the highest daily totals so far ...
    1 week ago
  • Urgent measures needed to allow the safe re-opening of Auckland schools
    Dr Rachel Webb, Dr Jin Russell, Dr Pip Anderson, Dr Emma Best, Dr Alison Leversha and Dr Subha Rajanaidu* In this blog we describe the range of urgent measures that are needed to facilitate a safe return to schools in Auckland and other regions of the country where there is ...
    SciBlogsBy Public Health Expert
    1 week ago
  • Children live online more than ever – we need better definitions of ‘good’ and ‘bad’ scree...
    Kathryn MacCallum, University of Canterbury and Cheryl Brown, University of Canterbury   The pandemic has fundamentally altered every part of our lives, not least the time we spend on digital devices. For young people in particular, the blurred line between recreational and educational screen time presents new challenges we are ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    1 week ago
  • Putting Aotearoa on the map: New Zealand has changed its name before, why not again?
    Claire Breen, University of Waikato; Alexander Gillespie, University of Waikato; Robert Joseph, University of Waikato, and Valmaine Toki, University of Waikato   Our names are a critical part of our identity. They are a personal and social anchor tying us to our families, our culture, our history and place in ...
    SciBlogsBy Guest Author
    1 week ago
  • Speaker: Yes, of course festival organisers will follow the law on vaccination
    On Tuesday 5 October the New Zealand Government announced that proof of COVID-19 vaccination would be a requirement to attend large events this summer.It took a few days for event owners to absorb the information and understand the implications. By the end of the working week, most of the big ...
    1 week ago
  • NZ Politics Daily: 11 October 2021
    Today’s NZPD testimonial from Jim Hubbard, Cartoonist “NZ Politics daily is a go to for cartoonists, or should be.  Political reporting enmasse like this gives cartoonists and political junkies a smorgasbord to get their teeth into. Essential and I daresay vital reading for those who care about the future of NZ.” Anyone can sign ...
    Democracy ProjectBy bryce.edwards
    1 week ago
  • 2021 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #41
    Listing of articles linked to on the Skeptical Science Facebook Page during the past week: Sun, October 3, 2021 through Sat, October 9, 2021 The following articles sparked above average interest during the week: VFX Artist Reveals how Many Solar Panels are Needed to Power the ENTIRE World, Will you fall ...
    1 week ago
  • The Night of Parmenides: accepted
    A bit of good news on the writing front. My 3900-word short story, The Night of Parmenides, has been accepted by SpecFicNZ for their upcoming Aftermath anthology, to be published in early 2022. This is my first published short story to be explicitly set in my home-town of ...
    1 week ago
  • The Virus, the Politician, and the gang member
    . . . . . References Newshub Nation: Gang leader Harry Tam denies Winston Peters’ claims he helped infected woman breach COVID boundary, sparking Northland lockdown Te Ao News: ‘Apologise!’ Mob leader slams Peters’ Covid, Northland allegations Stuff media: Covid-19 – Search for contact of Northland case ‘extraordinarily frustrating’ CNBC: ...
    Frankly SpeakingBy Frank Macskasy
    1 week ago
  • Rapid kits, responses, and openings: watch motivations, or catch something worse with Covid…
    Last week was probably a high point for many armchair “experts”, fresh from their high after some deep inhaling of the various musings and fumings, of an actually very smug, and very insualted John “Things all work for me…” Key, former Prime Minister and FOREX trader, had blitzed the ...
    exhALANtBy exhalantblog
    1 week ago
  • Bollocks
    It would appear we have an unwelcome presence in town.Positive wastewater results had been detected in Hamilton and Palmerston North on October 6 and 7. There are 26 cases in hospital, seven of these are in ICU or high dependency units (HDU).One of the people in hospital is in Palmerston ...
    1 week ago
  • World-leading?
    So, the Herald has found someone, as we can see from today’s issue, who is able to explain why we should not claim to have been “world-leading” in our response to the covid epidemic. It seems that we have been kidding ourselves when we celebrated our low total number of ...
    Bryan GouldBy Bryan Gould
    1 week ago
  • Why Is Labour So Frightened Of “Mr Stick”?
    Force Multiplier: Why are Ardern and her ministers so loathe to put a bit of stick about? The “emergency” legislation eventually enacted to authorise the measures needed to combat the Covid-19 pandemic failed to confer upon the New Zealand Government the unequivocal authority that subsequent events showed to be so ...
    1 week ago
  • The Need for an Updated Strategic Approach to Covid-19 Control in Aotearoa NZ
    Prof Nick Wilson, Dr Jennifer Summers, Prof Michael Baker* The NZ Government appears to have drifted into an unclear strategic approach to Covid-19 control. In this blog we outline one potential way forward: a regional strategic approach that considers “regional suppression” and “regional elimination”. To maximise the success of this ...
    SciBlogsBy Public Health Expert
    1 week ago
  • Mairon: The Actual Source for the Blasted Name
    Long-time Tolkien geeks – or those bemused enough to run across a certain internet phenomenon – might know that ‘Sauron’ is not actually the real name of the Lord of the Ring. ‘Sauron’ is just an abusive Elvish nickname, meaning ‘the Abhorred.’ Sauron’s actual name, at least originally, ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Forced Re-entry
    The elimination of Covid strategy is not so much defeated but changing circumstances means that policy has to evolve. Our elimination stance was never sustainable or at least it would not be until the rest of the world also eliminated Covid-19. Elimination of the virus was a strategy we adopted ...
    PunditBy Brian Easton
    2 weeks ago
  • Repeal this unjust law
    Yesterday the Supreme Court ruled on National's unjust "three strikes" law, and found that the sentence it required was (in the case in question) so disproportionate as to "shock the conscience" and violate the Bill of Rights Act ban on disproportionately severe treatment or punishment: The Supreme Court has ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • Climate Change: Preparing for the flood
    The Christchurch City Council has published new "coastal hazards" data, indicating which places are under threat from sea-level rise. And its not good news: Parts of Christchurch and Banks Peninsula are likely to become unhabitable [sic] as the city council figures out how to adapt to sea level ...
    No Right TurnBy Idiot/Savant
    2 weeks ago
  • The Virus, Not The Government
    I wonder if Mike Hosking ever reads the paper in which he appears so regularly? If he does, he might have noticed a report in today’s Herald about the problem that could face churches in Auckland if a vaccine passport becomes mandatory for those wishing to attend church services. The ...
    Bryan GouldBy Bryan Gould
    2 weeks ago
  • NZ Politics Daily: 8 October 2021
    Today’s NZPD testimonial from Bill Ralston, Media consultant and columnist: “NZ Politics Daily provides an invaluable service for journalists, politicians, businesspeople, decision makers and the public at large by providing an easily accessible, exhaustive, link to every significant political story in the country’s media that day. It’s a gem of a service ...
    Democracy ProjectBy bryce.edwards
    2 weeks ago
  • Open letter to Michael Barnett, Julie White, et al
    . . Congratulations,  Mr Barnett, Ms White, and your business colleagues. It appears that we will end up having to “live” (ie, get sick, end up in hospital, perhaps in ICU, intubated on ventilators, and possibly dying as our lungs fail) with covid19. But at least businesses will open up. ...
    Frankly SpeakingBy Frank Macskasy
    2 weeks ago

  • Red tape cut to boost housing supply
    New building intensification rules will mean up to three homes of up to three storeys can be built on most sites without the need for a resource consent New rules will result in at least 48,200 and as many as 105,500 new homes built in next 5-8 years Bringing forward ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 hours ago
  • Nationwide business partnership grows conservation jobs
    Further Government support for New Zealand’s longest-standing sustainable business organisation will open up opportunities for dozens of workers impacted by COVID-19 to jump start a nature-based career, Conservation Minister Kiri Allan says. Partnering to Plant Aotearoa, led by the Sustainable Business Network (SBN), is a collaboration with iwi, hapū and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • New Zealand increases climate aid contribution
    Government commits $1.3 billion over four years to support countries most vulnerable to the effects of climate change At least 50 percent of funding will go to the Pacific as it adapts to the impacts of climate change The increase means New Zealand now meets its fair share of global ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Super Māori turnout for Super Saturday
    Māori have put a superb effort into mobilising to get vaccinated over Super Saturday, with thousands rolling up their sleeves to protect themselves, their whānau and communities from COVID-19, Associate Health Minister Peeni Henare says. “It was absolutely outstanding that 21,702 Māori got vaccinated on this one day alone with 10,825 ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Language assists Tagata Niue to thrive
    Despite the uncertain times we face with the challenges of COVID-19, our cultural knowledge, values and language remain constant, helping us progress towards goals in life, said  the Minister for Pacific Peoples Aupito William Sio. This year, the Niuean community in New Zealand decided on the theme, “Kia tupuolaola e ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • New Zealand Ambassador to France announced
    Foreign Affairs Minister Nanaia Mahuta today announced the appointment of Caroline Bilkey as New Zealand’s next Ambassador to France and the OECD. “Aotearoa New Zealand and France have a shared history, and enjoy a strong, collaborative partnership. This includes a strong trade and economic relationship, a shared commitment to support ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Govt welcomes nurses’ pay settlement
    The Government is welcoming news that a new employment agreement for nurses working in public hospitals has been settled. “I am very pleased that the hard work of the Nurses Organisation and District Health Boards has led to a settlement that both can support,” Health Minister Andrew Little said today. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Judge of the High Court appointed
    Māori Land Court Judge Layne Harvey has been appointed a Judge of the High Court, Attorney‑General David Parker announced today. Justice Harvey graduated with an LLB from the University of Auckland in 1992 and commenced employment as a law clerk with Simpson Grierson in Auckland that same year. In 1997 ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Kiwis to have their say on plan to reduce waste
    New Zealanders are invited to have their say on proposals for a new waste strategy and options for new waste legislation. “Reducing waste is one of the issues all New Zealanders – especially younger Kiwis - care deeply about,” Environment Minister David Parker said today “New Zealand is one of ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Next steps in action plan for indigenous rights kicks off
    Minister for Māori Development Willie Jackson has today meet with more than 30 national Māori organisations in an online hui, kicking off the process to develop a plan for New Zealand to implement the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples (the Declaration). The previous National Government signed ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Iwi-led housing solutions build homes for the future
    Whai Kāinga, Whai Oranga will open on 20 October, to receive applications for investment through Te Tūāpapa Kura Kāinga – Ministry of Housing and Urban Development and Te Puni Kōkiri The $730m fund combines investment from Budget 2021 ($380m) and the Māori Infrastructure Fund ($350m) - the largest investment seen ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • E whakarite ana Te Kāwanatanga i ngā tūāpapa mō twhakamaumahara ki Te Petihana Reo Māori ka t...
    I te rā nei, i pānuihia e te Minita mō Manatū Taonga, ko Carmel Sepuloni, rāua ko te Minita Whanaketanga Māori, ko Willie Jackson, ā tērā tau, ka whakanuia rawatia te 50 o ngā tau mai i te whakatakotoranga o te petihana mō te Reo Māori me te huanga mai ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • E whakarite ana Te Kāwanatanga i ngā tūāpapa mō tewhakamaumahara ki Te Petihana Reo Māori ka t...
    I te rā nei, i pānuihia e te Minita mō Manatū Taonga, ko Carmel Sepuloni, rāua ko te Minita Whanaketanga Māori, ko Willie Jackson, ā tērā tau, ka whakanuia rawatia te 50 o ngā tau mai i te whakatakotoranga o te petihana mō te Reo Māori me te huanga mai ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Government green lights rapid antigen testing
    Some of the country’s largest businesses have put in an order for 300,000 approved rapid antigen tests for their workforce, after working at pace with the Government on a new scheme unveiled by Associate Minister of Health and Research, Science and Innovation Ayesha Verrall. A coalition of around 25 businesses ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Government lays foundations as Māori Language Petition commemorations take shape for 2022
    Taiaha hā! Taiaha hā! - Te kairangi o te reo hoki mai ki taku tikanga, ki taku taumata, ki taku reo, ki taku ao. He reo whai tikanga, he reo whai mana, he reo whai tangata koe. Ki te whāngaihia te reo Māori he ao tēnā, ki te kore he ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Major contract awarded to power NZ Battery investigation
    A consortium of specialist firms has been awarded a major contract to advance the New Zealand Battery Project’s feasibility investigation into a pumped hydro storage scheme at Lake Onslow, the Minister of Energy and Resources Megan Woods has announced. “This contract represents a major milestone as it begins the targeted ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Additional Funding for Foodbanks and Social Agencies
    The Government has approved $13.55m from the Covid Response and Recovery Fund to support foodbanks and social sector agencies, Minister for Social Development Carmel Sepuloni has announced. “Foodbanks and social agencies across Auckland are doing a great job supporting their communities and the Government is today providing them with more ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Generating a new generation of guardians
    The Government is supporting a Whakatōhea-led project undertaking landscape scale restoration in forests and around vulnerable rivers within the Eastern Bay of Plenty, Minister of Conservation Kiri Allan says. “The Whakatōhea Tiaki Taiao project will employ four people to undertake pest and weed control, ecosystem restoration and monitoring over three ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Parts of Waikato, Northland staying at Alert Level 3
    The parts of Waikato that have been in Alert Level 3 and Northland will remain in Alert Level 3 for a few more days, COVID-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins said today. Auckland remains at Alert Level 3, Step 1. “Based on the latest public health information, ministers have decided that ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • New courthouses for Tauranga and Whanganui
    The Government is moving ahead with new courthouses in Tauranga and Whanganui, which the Justice Minister says provide an opportunity to redesign court facilities that help put victims at the heart of the justice system. “These courthouses are part of the 10-year infrastructure investment plan to restore and modernise Ministry ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Speech on the launch of the consultation on the development of the Emissions Reduction Plan
    Tēnā koutou katoa. Ngā mihi o te ata. Earlier this month Save the Children wrote to me with their most up to date analysis on the impact of climate change. What they said was that children born in Aotearoa today will experience up to five times as many heatwaves and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Opportunity to shape NZ’s first Emissions Reduction Plan
    The Government is inviting New Zealanders to inform the country’s first Emissions Reduction Plan with the release of a consultation document containing a range of policy ideas to decrease the country’s emissions, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and Climate Change Minister James Shaw announced today. The Emissions Reduction Plan will set ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Convention on Biological Diversity COP 15, Virtual High-Level Segment
    Kia ora koutou katoa. I want to thank China for hosting this critically important Conference of the Parties. We are all here for the same reason. Biodiversity loss, and the ongoing degradation of nature, are accelerating at an unprecedented rate. These losses are causing irreparable harm to our planet’s ability ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Government books show resilient and strong economy
    The end of year audited Crown accounts released today show the Government’s health led approach to the COVID-19 pandemic has protected New Zealand’s economy. “On almost every indicator the accounts show that the New Zealand economy has performed better than forecast, even as recently as the Budget in May. It ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • ​​​​​​​Health system is ready for assisted-dying law
    The health system is ready for the implementation of the End of Life Choice Act when it takes effect next month, making assisted dying legal in New Zealand, Health Minister Andrew Little said today. The law received 65.1 per cent support in a public referendum held alongside last year’s general ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Taking a lead in threat to curious kea
    Reducing lead poisoning of kea, the world’s only alpine parrot and one-time New Zealand bird of the year winner, is the goal of a two year project being backed by the Government’s Jobs for Nature programme, Minister of Conservation Kiri Allan says.  “Lead poisoning is a serious threat to this ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Government provides certainty to working holiday and seasonal visa holders and employers for summer
    The Government will extend Working Holiday visas and Supplementary Seasonal Employment (SSE) work visas for six months to provide more certainty to employers and visa holders over the coming summer period, Immigration Minister Kris Faafoi has announced. “This offers employers and visa holders the certainty they’ve been asking for going ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Lower card fees good for businesses, consumers
    The Bill to help lower the cost of the fees retailers get charged for offering contactless and debit payment options is another step closer to becoming law, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Dr David Clark said today. “COVID-19 has changed the way we spend our money, with online and contactless ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Mandatory vaccination for two workforces
    High-risk workers in the health and disability sector to be fully vaccinated by 1 December, 2021, and to receive their first dose by 30 October School and early learning staff and support people who have contact with children and students to be fully vaccinated by 1 January, 2022, and to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Fund allows more Pacific community led vaccinations
    The Government has made $1.1 million available through ‘The Prepare Pacific Community Vaccination Fund’ to directly support Pacific community-led initiatives towards increasing vaccinations, said Associate Minister of Health, Aupito William Sio. “The best way to protect our communities from COVID-19 is through vaccination. “We need to explore every avenue to ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Small business at heart of economic recovery across APEC region
    The Minister for Small Business says support for small and medium enterprises will remain ongoing as the Asia-Pacific region moves through response and recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. Stuart Nash today chaired a virtual summit from Wellington for the APEC Small and Medium Enterprises Ministerial Meeting (SMEMM). “APEC Ministers responsible ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Restrictions on abortion medication lifted for health practitioners
    Abortion services can now be provided in primary care, meaning people can access this care from someone like their trusted GP and in a familiar setting, Associate Minister of Health Dr Ayesha Verrall announced today. “By lifting some restrictions on the funded medications used for early medical abortions, more health ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Record day for Māori vaccinations
    More than 10,000 vaccinations were administered to Māori yesterday, the highest number in the vaccine campaign so far, Associate Minister of Health (Maori Health) Peeni Henare announced. There were 10,145 doses administered across the motu yesterday this is almost equivalent to the population of Hāwera. The doses are made up ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Statement on Joint Cooperation in Agriculture between Ireland and New Zealand
    8 October 2021 - Dublin, Ireland Agriculture plays an important role in the economic, social, environmental, and cultural wellbeing of Ireland and New Zealand. We are focused on increasing the productivity, inclusivity, and resilience of our respective primary sectors. As agri-food exporting nations, we also share a commitment to a ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
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  • Northland to move to Alert Level 3 tonight
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