- Date published:
7:00 am, May 19th, 2020 - 33 comments
Categories: act, david seymour, election 2020, national, paul goldsmith, paula bennett, Politics, polls, same old national, Simon Bridges - Tags:
Last night’s Reid Research Newshub poll result will be reverberating through National’s caucus. Their basic problem is that their support is in steep decline and this decline shows no signs of slowing down. Whatever they are doing it is not working.
With support down to 30% they are facing the loss of 20 seats and could be down to 35 or so. And given they currently hold 41 electorate seats this is a big problem for them. No doubt they will lose electorate seats and individual seat results may vary but the fight for list seats will become chronic.
In 2002 they gained 21 electorate seats and 6 list positions. This time the result could be similar.
Simon Bridges’ 11,000 majority in Tauranga is on this poll result marginal. If he survives the next few months he may have to rely on the list to get back in. Paula Bennett will presumably take number 2 position. But the risk starts increasing that the next position is the position that misses out.
So what does Paul Goldsmith do? He is in the safest National seat in the country and has dutifully not campaigned for the seat previously as part of the bastardisation of proportionality that the Epsom deal causes. But why should National continue with the deal? It is not as if that extra seat may swing the election for them. This is race for the lifeboats time. This is not the time to eke out as many partners as possible on the off chance they could form a government.
Goldsmith is one of National’s better performers. They cannot afford to lose their talented MPs from the house. They have a rebuild job to do.
The temptation must be that this election there will be no sweetheart deal. It is not as if ACT is currently helping National in any way. And National need the seats.
So get ready for no cup of tea this time. And a bare knuckle brawl between a party fighting for its existence and a party fighting for its relevance.