Pollwatch for Newshub/Reid Research poll, 18th May 2020
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- Date published:
10:00 am, May 19th, 2020 - 53 comments
Categories: campaigning, greens, journalism, Judith Collins, labour, national, nz first, polls, Simon Bridges -
Tags: 2020, anne tolley, campaign, electorates, judith collins, list rankings, newshub, poll, pollwatch, reid research, simon bridges, watch
I’m back with a new edition of Pollwatch for those of you who like some statistical analysis with your speculation!
This was a doozy, definitely proving that UMR wasn’t off-base with the leaked results and that National is giving a disastrous performance, worthy of 2002 Bill English- in fact, literally only 0.1% better than that final 1999 election result for National. If this were the 2020 election, it would be the second-worst National result ever, and the actual worst election under MMP for the Right ever, as in 2002 ACT was at the height of its powers with a 7% result, and its 2020 “bounce” still has it under 2% and only just managing to get an actual caucus back. (It’s worth noting that national polled even worse than this in the lead-up to 2002, though, and election campaigns tend to narrow the result no matter who leads)
Unfortunately most of the graphs here are so boring they’re barely worth looking at- there’s a 100% chance of a Labour-only government if this were the election, something I’ve mentioned before that would be very dangerous in practice and that I hope voters would narrow away from in the election, either by softer Labour supporters considering the Greens, or by natural closing of the gap between parties. That said, the trend still shows that polling is quite volatile since late 2019, likely at least partially due to long periods between polls now that Roy Morgan is out of the New Zealand polling arena.
Newshub also hasn’t given their net approval numbers which actually mean something, so I won’t comment on Preferred Prime Minister polling, other than to note it is as disastrous as expected, and that Bridges and Collins are in a statistical tie for second place, so knives are clearly being sharpened, and perhaps not just by Collins.
That said, I have an entirely new addition to my overall model for you all, as I was working on something to let us know how close we are to National hitting overhang seats, so for the very first time I’ve adapted the Strong Transition Model from the UK’s Electoral Calculus site to allow me to make predictions based on the national vote for which electorates will change hands. This sort of model tends to be the best way to predict the overall number of electorate victories, (1 to ACT, 0 to NZF, 35 to National, 35 to Labour) so please take individual calls with a grain of salt, but those numbers will likely be good predictors as we get closer to election date, if the number of electorate wins becomes relevant. I’ve also corrected one National prediction to a Labour one, as to my knowledge the Greens don’t plan to reprise the very strong campaign in Nelson, so it is very likely to go to the Labour MP factoring that in, and given that nobody is calling Takanini yet, I’m predicting it will go to Labour with a result this strong, which seems fair if we assume it’s a possible bellwether seat like its demographics tentatively suggest it might be.
You’ll also note my model doesn’t predict NZF will win Northland. They’re out of parliament on these results, but they actually can win Northland with a stronger party vote result than in this poll, according to my model, as the exodus of National support might make Peters look like the most attractive option, so put a pin in that electorate race. With some actual way to predict electorates, I’ve updated my model for the assumption that ACT gets one, NZF get none, and as far as we can tell, minor parties also get none.
What this really lets us do though, is predict how many National MPs will retain or lose their seats, and it’s an absolute bloodbath. With 39 seats from the party vote, (down from 56) they get 5 (down from 15) from the list once we assign Nelson to Labour. If we assume their list based on caucus rankings for now, (a reasonable starting point, but likely to have a few adjustments) this gives their List winners as:
2 – Paula Bennett (now list-only, to act as campaign manager)
3 – Paul Goldsmith (ACT to retain Epsom)
7 – Nikki Kaye (Labour to win Auckland Central, predicted 2.8% margin)
9 – Michael Woodhouse (Labour to retain Dunedin North)
11 – Alfred Ngaro (Labour to retain Te Atatu)
Paula Bennett and Paul Goldsmith are absolute necessities to retain, but this actually suggests their list ought to diverge by caucus rankings when you look into who they’ll lose. Let’s start with unranked incumbents, who are gone regardless of election result:
Alastair Scott (retiring)
Amy Adams (retiring)
David Carter (retiring)
Maggie Barry (retiring)
Nathan Guy (retiring)
Nicky Wagner (retiring)
Sarah Dowie (retiring)
Moving on, here are those who’d need to find new employment if National can’t close the gap:
14 – Melissa Lee (Labour to retain Mt Albert)
15 – Chris Bishop (Labour to win Hutt South, predicted 5.9% margin)
17 – Anne Tolley (list-only, “to contest election as Speaker“)
20 – Nick Smith (I’m calling my model wrong here, as Labour could absolutely win this in a two-party race, and as far as I know there are no Green plans to try to win this election in 2020, which upsets how its maths works)
24 – Kanwaljit Singh Bakshi (Labour to retain Manukau East)
26 – Brett Hudson (Labour to retain Ōhāriu)
29 – Jian Yang (list-only)
30 – Parmjeet Parmar (Labour to retain Mt Roskill)
33 – Jo Hayes (Labour to retain Christchurch East)
36 – Harete Hipango (Labour to win Whanganui, predicted 4.4% margin)
38 – Denise Lee (Labour to win Maungakiekie, predicted 2.3% margin)
43 – Lawrence Yule (Labour to win Tukituki, predicted 2.3% margin)
44 – Maureen Pugh (Labour to retain West-Coast Tasman)
45 – Nicola Willis (Labour to retain Wellington Central)
47 – Agnes Loheni (list-only)
48 – Paulo Garcia (Labour to retain New Lynn)
…but with potential new blood in the following electorates:
Chris Luxon, candidate for Botany (expected to replace independent incumbent Jamie-Lee Ross)
Unannounced new National candidate for East Coast
Unannounced new National candidate for Invercargill
Tim Costley, candidate for Ōtaki
Simon Watts, candidate for North Shore
Nicola Grigg, candidate for Selwyn
Jake Bezzant, candidate for Upper Harbour
Once we factor in these losses and replacements, there’s some obvious considerations for tweaking National’s list.
A lot of their more senior talent has been shafted by the caucus reshuffle, and that’s very dangerous when your list is going to potentially be cut this close to the wire. If I were a senior National Party official, I’d be looking at bumping Tolley up to #4 or otherwise in single-digits on the list so that I didn’t get embarrassed by losing the assistant-speaker from caucus with my own hubris, and frankly I’d also consider bumping an additional woman up the list too, like Melissa Lee or Parmjeet Parmar, because if they went by caucus rankings alone, a result like this would leave them with eight women out of thirty nine MPs, and an overall very white caucus, too, which would open them up to further criticism that they aren’t even trying to look like New Zealand, and while I don’t like Melissa Lee, she sure as hell is a better pick as a list MP than Alfred Ngaro. They’ll naturally be hoping for another 3-4 list MPs minimum from the campaign, but they shouldn’t count on it- lists should both plan for the worst and offer for the best. The reshuffle has already thrown new blood high into the current caucus rankings, speaking cynically likely because they supported Bridges for leader, and the smokey room setting the list needs to counterbalance that.
On a wider view, if we look at the bloodbath to list-reliant MPs in opposition, it’s worth noting that Labour had similar issues in the 2014 election, and arguably are still recovering from them. It might make more sense for the competence of our parliament to set the size of parliament such that we have a list seat for every electorate seat, to limit the losses of senior MPs and institutional knowledge. That would, of course, give us 142 MPs this election, but that’s not completely ridiculous.
I hoped you all enjoyed the foray into the consequences of who wins and who loses- I’ll definitely come back to that later when the campaign is officially open and we have lists for National and Labour and I can tell you who might be in as well.
It’s also worth noting that as this is a statistical model, it’s likely in the election that Labour will lose a few electorates, and pick up additional ones from National, but if they’ve gained from 2017, which seems very likely right now, they’ll retain any electorate losers on the list, anyway, unless they’ve been badly demoted, so unfortunately I can’t tell you very much interesting about that until lists are released- and I’m certainly not going to go off the first draft of the Green list yet, given that voting is still in progress on that one, and it may be adjusted by the Executive afterwards if necessary.
Also, any candidates with a margin smaller than 3% are in fact very marginal calls by the model and could go either way- but it’s likely that most such upsets might be balanced out by losses of existing Labour electorates that this model can’t predict easily, or additional seats changing hands that it doesn’t accurately predict to. The idea is more to get at the right overall number of electorates for each party.
53 comments on “Pollwatch for Newshub/Reid Research poll, 18th May 2020 ”
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Hi,One of the things I love the most about Webworm is, well, you. The community that’s gathered around this lil’ newsletter isn’t something I ever expected when I started writing it four years ago — now the comments section is one of my favourite places on the internet. The comments ...1 week ago
- Govt Warned – Increasing Snapper Quota Breaches Fisheries Settlement
An imminent decision to increase the total allowable commercial catch (TACC) for snapper would be a direct violation of the first-ever Treaty Settlement and inevitably breach Te Tiriti o Waitangi, says Te Pāti Māori. Te Ohu Kaimoana has sought a High Court declaration to prevent the Minister of Oceans and ...17 hours ago
- Govt attacks workers’ rights once again
Today’s announcement from the Minister of Workplace Relations emphasises how deep in the pocket of big business this Government really is. ...2 days ago - Release: Māori business not a priority for this Govt
Scrapping the Progressive Procurement programme designed to support and grow Māori businesses is a missed opportunity. ...2 days ago - Release: March 15 inquiry grants cut by Government
Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith has cut grants helping overseas family of victims to attend the next phase of the Coronial Inquiry into the 15 March 2019 Christchurch Masjidain Attack. ...2 days ago
- Minister of Injustice seeks to Entrench largest land confiscation in History
The Waitangi Tribunal has released an Urgent Report on the Government’s proposed amendments to the Takutai Moana Act 2011. The report calls out Paul Goldsmith’s proposal for what it is: a “gross breach of the Treaty” and an “illegitimate exercise of kāwanatanga”. The Tribunal is recommending the Crown step down ...4 days ago
- Takutai Moana changes another assault on Te Tiriti
The Government must abandon its Marine and Coastal Area (Takutai Moana) Act interventions after the Waitangi Tribunal found it was committing gross breaches of the Treaty. ...4 days ago
- Greens call on Govt to leave Te Reo in schools alone
As Te Wiki o te Reo Māori approaches, the Government is considering deprioritising teaching Te Reo Māori in our schools. ...4 days ago
- Govt cannot ignore racism
The Government’s directive to the public service to ignore race is nothing more than a dog whistle and distraction from the structural racism we need to address. ...4 days ago
- Release: Lemauga Lydia Sosene to take medical leave
Labour’s Mangere MP Lemauga Lydia Sosene has been diagnosed with breast cancer and will shortly take medical leave. ...4 days ago
- Potential intelligence sharing with Israel must be investigated
Concerns have been raised that our spy arrangements may mean that intelligence is being shared between Aotearoa and Israel. An urgent inquiry must be launched in response to this. ...5 days ago
- Release: Charter schools undermine our education system
The Government is taking a wrecking ball to our public education system by reinstating charter schools. ...5 days ago
- Youngest MP to travel to Canada to accept Politician of the Year Award
Aotearoa’s Youngest Member of Parliament, and Te Pāti Māori MP, Hana-Rawhiti Maipi-Clarke, will travel to Montreal to accept the One Young World Politician of the Year Award next week. The One Young World Politician of the Year Award was created in 2018 to recognise the most promising young politicians between ...5 days ago
- Greens celebrate huge step forward for ADHD community
The Greens welcome today’s long-coming announcement by Pharmac of consultation to remove the special authority renewal criteria for methylphenidate, dexamfetamine and modafinil and to fund lisdexamfetamine. ...5 days ago
- Release: Millions to be spent dividing NZ for no reason
The National Party is wasting millions of dollars allowing David Seymour’s Treaty Principals Bill to be drafted and go to Select Committee. ...5 days ago
- Release: New Zealanders departing our shores at a record rate
The Migration figures released by Stats NZ today show National is continuing to drive Kiwis away from New Zealand in record numbers. ...5 days ago
- Te Tai Tokerau MP Slams Govt Overreach in Scrapping Māori Wards
Mema Paremata for Te Tai Tokerau, Mariameno Kapa-Kingi, has reflected on the decisions made by the councils of the North amidst the government’s push to remove Māori Wards and weaken mana whenua representation. “Actions taken by the Kaipara District Council to remove Māori Wards are the embodiment of the eradication ...5 days ago
- Govt already seeking advice on Treaty referendum
On one hand, the Prime Minister has assured Aotearoa that his party will not support the Treaty Principles Bill beyond first reading, but on the other, his Government has already sought advice on holding a referendum on our founding document. ...6 days ago
- Release: Aged care will be worse off if redesign rushed
New Zealanders needing aged care support and the people who care for them will be worse off if the Government pushes through a flawed and rushed redesign of dementia and aged care. ...6 days ago
- Release: Govt fails hundreds of workers as mills close
Labour is devastated at news hundreds of workers are set to lose their jobs following the closure of Winstone Pulp mills. ...6 days ago
- Job losses from mill closures consequence of Govt inaction
Hundreds of jobs lost as a result of pulp mill closures in the Ruapehu District are a consequence of government inaction in addressing the shortfalls of our electricity network. ...7 days ago
- Ngarewa-Packer devastated for Ruapehu following WPI closure
Te Pāti Māori Co-Leader and MP for Te Tai Hauāuru is devastated for the Ruapehu community following today’s decision to close two Winstone Pulp mills. “My heart goes out to all the workers, their whānau, and the wider Ruapehu community affected by the closure of Winstone Pulp International,” said Ngarewa-Packer. ...1 week ago
- Release: Cabinet should stop the Treaty Principles Bill
National Party Ministers have a majority in Cabinet and can stop David Seymour’s Treaty Principles Bill, which even the Prime Minister has described as “divisive and unhelpful.” ...1 week ago
- Release: Staff gagged to keep fast track list secret
The National Government is so determined to hide the list of potential projects that will avoid environmental scrutiny it has gagged Ministry for the Environment staff from talking about it. ...1 week ago
- Release: Labour challenges Te Whatu Ora gag orders
Labour has complained to the Te Kawa Mataaho Public Service Commission about the high number of non-disclosure agreements that have effectively gagged staff at Te Whatu Ora Health NZ from talking about anything relating to their work. ...1 week ago
- Greens call on Treaty Principles Bill to be abandoned after letter from Christian leaders
The Green Party is once again urging the Prime Minister to abandon the Treaty Principles Bill as a letter from more than 400 Christian leaders calls for the proposed legislation to be dropped. ...1 week ago
- Sign the petition: Keep military-style firearms off our streets
Help us tell the Government that reintroducing military-style firearms should not be up for debate. ...1 week ago
- Vast majority of councils support Māori wards
Councils across the country have now decided where they stand regarding Māori wards, with a resounding majority in favour of keeping them in what is a significant setback for the Government. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Government on the wrong side of Māori wards
The National-led government has been given a clear message from the local government sector, as almost all councils reject the Government’s bid to treat Māori wards different to other wards. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Labour congratulates Kuīni Ngā Wai hono i te po Paki
The Labour Party congratulates Kuīni Ngā Wai hono i te po Paki on being crowned as the eighth Te Ariki Nui – head of Te Kiingitanga. ...2 weeks ago
- Green Party welcomes new Maaori Kuiini
The Green Party welcomes the coronation of the new Maaori Kuiini, Te Arikinui Nga Wai Hono i te Po, today in Turangawaewae. ...2 weeks ago
- ECE teachers deserve better than this Government
The Green Party is unsurprised but disappointed by today’s announcement from the Government that will see our Early Childhood Centre teachers undermined and pay parity pushed further out of reach. ...2 weeks ago
- Urgent intervention needed on supermarkets
The Green Party is calling on the Government to intervene in the supermarket duopoly dominating our supply of groceries following today’s report from the Commerce Commission. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Rainbow youth neglected in mental health funding
Labour backs the call from The Rainbow Support Collective members for mental health funding specifically earmarked for grassroots and peer led community organisations to be set up in a way that they are able to access. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Transport in NZ has to be more than just roads
As expected, the National Land Transport Programme lacks ambition for our cities and our country’s rail network and puts the majority of investment into roads. ...2 weeks ago
- Speech: Barbara Edmonds Building Nations 2024
Tēnā koutou katoa, Thank you for your warm welcome and for having my colleagues and I here today. Earlier you heard from the Labour Leader, Chris Hipkins, on our vision for the future of infrastructure. I want to build on his comments and provide further detail on some key elements ...2 weeks ago
- Govt transport plan deepens fossil fuel fix
The Green Party says the Government’s new National Land Transport Programme marks another missed opportunity to take meaningful action to fight the climate crisis. ...2 weeks ago
- Greens call for public to back Wrybill in BOTY and beyond
The Green Party is calling on the public to support the Ngutu Pare Wrybill not just in this year’s Bird of the Year competition but also in pushing back against policies that could lead to the destruction of its habitat and accelerate its extinction. ...2 weeks ago
- Building consents data bad news for construction
News that the annual number of building consents granted for new homes fell by more than 20 percent for the year ended July 2024, is bad news for the construction industry. ...3 weeks ago
- Te Pāti Māori Pay Tribute to Kiingi Tūheitia Pōtatau Te Wherowhero VII
Papā te whatitiri, hikohiko te uira, i kanapu ki te rangi, i whētuki i raro rā, rū ana te whenua e. Uea te pou o tōku whare kia tū tangata he kapua whakairi nāku nā runga o Taupiri. Ko taku kiri ka tōkia ki te anu mātao. E te iwi ...3 weeks ago
- Release: Gaps still to be addressed in callouts response
The Government must guarantee New Zealanders will not be at risk after making changes to the way mental health callouts are handled. ...3 weeks ago
- Prioritising victims with tougher sentences
The Government has today agreed to introduce sentencing reforms to Parliament this week that will ensure criminals face real consequences for crime and victims are prioritised, Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith says. "In recent years, there has been a concerning trend where the courts have imposed fewer and shorter prison sentences ...17 hours ago - Targets data confirms rise in violent crime
The first quarterly report on progress against the nine public service targets show promising results in some areas and the scale of the challenge in others, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon says. “Our Government reinstated targets to focus our public sector on driving better results for New Zealanders in health, education, ...17 hours ago
- Asia Foundation Board appointments announced
Foreign Minister Winston Peters has announced the appointments of Hone McGregor, Professor David Capie, and John Boswell to the Board of the Asia New Zealand Foundation. Bede Corry, Secretary of Foreign Affairs and Trade, has also been appointed as an ex-officio member. The new trustees join Dame Fran Wilde (Chair), ...20 hours ago
- Endeavour Fund projects for economic growth
New Zealand’s largest contestable science fund is investing in 72 new projects to address challenges, develop new technology and support communities, Science, Innovation and Technology Minister Judith Collins says. “This Endeavour Fund round being funded is focused on economic growth and commercial outputs,” Ms Collins says. “It involves funding of more ...24 hours ago
- Social Services Providers Whakamanawa National Conference 16 September 2024
Thank you for the introduction and the invitation to speak to you here today. I am honoured to be here in my capacity as Minister for the Prevention of Family and Sexual Violence, and Minister for Children. Thank you for creating a space where we can all listen and learn, ...24 hours ago
- Parihaka infrastructure upgrades funded
The Government will provide a $5.8 million grant to improve water infrastructure at Parihaka in Taranaki, Regional Development Minister Shane Jones and Māori Development Minister Tama Potaka say. “This grant from the Regional Infrastructure Fund will have a multitude of benefits for this hugely significant cultural site, including keeping local ...1 day ago
- Serious assaults down 22% in Auckland CBD
Cross-government action to tackle crime and antisocial behaviour in Auckland is getting traction, says Police Minister Mark Mitchell. “Our central cities should be great places to live and work, but in recent years they have become hot spots for crime and anti-social behaviour. In Auckland, businesses and residents suffered as ...2 days ago
- Increased certainty for contractors coming
Workplace Relations and Safety Minister Brooke van Velden says upcoming changes to the Employment Relations Act will provide greater certainty for contractors and businesses. “These changes to legislation are necessary to ensure businesses and workers have more clarity from the start of their contracting arrangement. It is an ACT-National coalition ...2 days ago
- Draft critical minerals list released for consultation
A draft list of minerals deemed essential to New Zealand’s economy and strengthening its mineral resilience has been released for consultation, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. The draft Critical Minerals List identifies 35 minerals essential to economic functions, are in demand internationally, and face high risk of supply disruption domestically ...2 days ago
- Government eliminates $190 million in trade barriers to boost the economy
The Government has successfully removed trade barriers affecting nearly $190 million worth of exports to help grow the economy, Minister for Trade and Agriculture Todd McClay today announced. “In the past year, we have resolved 14 Non Tariff Barriers (NTBs), returning significant value to kiwi exporters. These efforts directly boost our ...2 days ago
- Reo Māori the ‘beating heart’ of Aotearoa New Zealand
From private business to the Paris Olympics, reo Māori is growing with the success of New Zealanders, says Minister for Māori Development Tama Potaka. “I’m joining New Zealanders across the country in celebrating this year’s Te Wiki o te Reo Māori – Māori Language Week, which has a big range ...3 days ago
- Need and value at forefront of public service delivery
New Cabinet policy directives will ensure public agencies prioritise public services on the basis of need and award Government contracts on the basis of public value, Minister for the Public Service Nicola Willis says. “Cabinet Office has today issued a circular to central government organisations setting out the Government’s expectations ...4 days ago
- Minister to attend Police Ministers Council Meeting
Police Minister Mark Mitchell will join with Australian Police Ministers and Commissioners at the Police Ministers Council meeting (PMC) today in Melbourne. “The council is an opportunity to come together to discuss a range of issues, gain valuable insights on areas of common interest, and different approaches towards law enforcement ...4 days ago
- New Bill to crack down on youth vaping
The coalition Government has introduced legislation to tackle youth vaping, Associate Health Minister Casey Costello announced today. “The Smokefree Environments and Regulated Products Amendment Bill (No 2) is aimed at preventing youth vaping. “While vaping has contributed to a significant fall in our smoking rates, the rise in youth vaping ...5 days ago
- Interest in agricultural and horticultural products regulatory review welcomed
Regulation Minister David Seymour, Environment Minister Penny Simmonds, and Food Safety Minister Andrew Hoggard have welcomed interest in the agricultural and horticultural products regulatory review. The review by the Ministry for Regulation is looking at how to speed up the process to get farmers and growers access to the safe, ...5 days ago
- Bill to allow online charity lotteries passes first reading
Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden says the Government is moving at pace to ensure lotteries for charitable purposes are allowed to operate online permanently. Charities fundraising online, such as those run by the Heart Foundation, Coastguard NZ, Auckland Rescue Helicopter Trust and local hospices will continue to do ...5 days ago
- Tax exempt threshold changes to benefit startups
Technology companies are among the startups which will benefit from increases to current thresholds of exempt employee share schemes, Science, Innovation and Technology Minister Judith Collins and Revenue Minister Simon Watts say. Tax exempt thresholds for the schemes are increasing as part of the Taxation (Annual Rates for 2024-25, Emergency ...5 days ago
- Getting the healthcare you need, when you need it
The path to faster cancer treatment, an increase in immunisation rates, shorter stays in emergency departments and quick assessment and treatments when you are sick has been laid out today. Health Minister Dr Shane Reti has revealed details of how the ambitious health targets the Government has set will be ...5 days ago
- Targeted supports to accelerate reading
The coalition Government is delivering targeted and structured literacy supports to accelerate learning for struggling readers. From Term 1 2025, $33 million of funding for Reading Recovery and Early Literacy Support will be reprioritised to interventions which align with structured approaches to teaching. “Structured literacy will change the way children ...5 days ago
- Survivors invited to Abuse in Care national apology
With two months until the national apology to survivors of abuse in care, expressions of interest have opened for survivors wanting to attend. “The Prime Minister will deliver a national apology on Tuesday 12 November in Parliament. It will be a very significant day for survivors, their families, whānau and ...5 days ago
- Rangatahi inspire at Ngā Manu Kōrero final
Ehara taku toa i te toa takitahi, engari he toa takitini kē - My success is not mine alone but is the from the strength of the many. Aotearoa New Zealand’s top young speakers are an inspiration for all New Zealanders to learn more about the depth and beauty conveyed ...5 days ago
- Driving structured literacy in schools
The coalition Government is driving confidence in reading and writing in the first years of schooling. “From the first time children step into the classroom, we’re equipping them and teachers with the tools they need to be brilliant in literacy. “From 1 October, schools and kura with Years 0-3 will receive ...6 days ago
- Labour’s misleading information is disappointing
Labour’s misinformation about firearms law is dangerous and disappointing, Associate Justice Minister Nicole McKee says. “Labour and Ginny Andersen have repeatedly said over the past few days that the previous Labour Government completely banned semi-automatic firearms in 2019 and that the Coalition Government is planning to ‘reintroduce’ them. ...6 days ago
- Govt takes action on mpox response, widens access to vaccine
The Government is taking immediate action on a number of steps around New Zealand’s response to mpox, including improving access to vaccine availability so people who need it can do so more easily, Health Minister Dr Shane Reti and Associate Health Minister David Seymour announced today. “Mpox is obviously a ...6 days ago
- Next steps agreed for Treaty Principles Bill
Associate Justice Minister David Seymour says Cabinet has agreed to the next steps for the Treaty Principles Bill. “The Treaty Principles Bill provides an opportunity for Parliament, rather than the courts, to define the principles of the Treaty, including establishing that every person is equal before the law,” says Mr Seymour. “Parliament ...6 days ago
- Government unlocking potential of AI
Science, Innovation and Technology Minister Judith Collins today announced a programme to drive Artificial Intelligence (AI) uptake among New Zealand businesses. “The AI Activator will unlock the potential of AI for New Zealand businesses through a range of support, including access to AI research experts, technical assistance, AI tools and resources, ...6 days ago
- Government releases Wairoa flood review findings
The independent rapid review into the Wairoa flooding event on 26 June 2024 has been released, Environment Minister Penny Simmonds, Local Government Minister Simeon Brown and Emergency Management and Recovery Minister Mark Mitchell announced today. “We welcome the review’s findings and recommendations to strengthen Wairoa's resilience against future events,” Ms ...6 days ago
- Promoting faster payment times for government
The Government is sending a clear message to central government agencies that they must prioritise paying invoices in a timely manner, Small Business and Manufacturing Minister Andrew Bayly says. Data released today promotes transparency by publishing the payment times of each central government agency. This data will be published quarterly ...6 days ago
- Acknowledgement to Kīngi Tuheitia speech
E te māngai o te Whare Pāremata, kua riro māku te whakaputa i te waka ki waho moana. E te Pirimia tēnā koe.Mr Speaker, it is my privilege to take this adjournment kōrero forward. Prime Minister – thank you for your leadership. Taupiri te maunga Waikato te awa Te Wherowhero ...7 days ago
- Interim fix to GST adjustment rules to support businesses
Inland Revenue can begin processing GST returns for businesses affected by a historic legislative drafting error, Revenue Minister Simon Watts says. “Inland Revenue has become aware of a legislative drafting error in the GST adjustment rules after changes were made in 2023 which were meant to simplify the process. This ...7 days ago
- Strong uptake for cervical screening self-test
More than 80 per cent of New Zealand women being tested have opted for a world-leading self-test for cervical screening since it became available a year ago. Minister of Health Dr Shane Reti and Associate Minister Casey Costello, in her responsibility for Women’s Health, say it’s fantastic to have such ...7 days ago
- Ministry for Regulation’s first Strategic Intentions document sets ambitious direction
Regulation Minister David Seymour welcomes the Ministry for Regulation’s first Strategic Intentions document, which sets out how the Ministry will carry out its work and deliver on its purpose. “I have set up the Ministry for Regulation with three tasks. One, to cut existing red tape with sector reviews. Two, ...7 days ago
- Māori Education Advisory Group established
The Education Minister has established a Māori Education Ministerial Advisory Group made up of experienced practitioners to help improve outcomes for Māori learners. “This group will provide independent advice on all matters related to Māori education in both English medium and Māori medium settings. It will focus on the most impactful ways we can lift ...7 days ago
- Government welcomes findings of NZ Superannuation Fund review
The Government has welcomed the findings of the recent statutory review into the Guardians of New Zealand Superannuation and the New Zealand Superannuation Fund, Minister of Finance Nicola Willis says. The 5-yearly review, conducted on behalf of Treasury and tabled in Parliament today, found the Guardians of New Zealand Superannuation ...7 days ago
- First of five new Hercules aircraft takes flight
Defence Minister Judith Collins today welcomed the first of five new C-130J-30 Hercules to arrive in New Zealand at a ceremony at the Royal New Zealand Air Force’s Base Auckland, Whenuapai. “This is an historic day for our New Zealand Defence Force (NZDF) and our nation. The new Hercules fleet ...1 week ago
- Have your say on suicide prevention
Today, September 10 is World Suicide Prevention Day, a time to reflect on New Zealand’s confronting suicide statistics, Mental Health Minister Matt Doocey says. “Every death by suicide is a tragedy – a tragedy that affects far too many of our families and communities in New Zealand. We must do ...1 week ago
- Action to grow the rural health workforce
Scholarships awarded to 27 health care students is another positive step forward to boost the future rural health workforce, Associate Health Minister Matt Doocey says. “All New Zealanders deserve timely access to quality health care and this Government is committed to improving health outcomes, particularly for the one in five ...1 week ago
- Pharmac delivering more for Kiwis following major funding boost
Associate Health Minister with responsibility for Pharmac David Seymour has welcomed the increased availability of medicines for Kiwis resulting from the Government’s increased investment in Pharmac. “Pharmac operates independently, but it must work within the budget constraints set by the Government,” says Mr Seymour. “When our Government assumed office, New ...1 week ago
- Sport Minister congratulates NZ’s Paralympians
Sport & Recreation Minister Chris Bishop has congratulated New Zealand's Paralympic Team at the conclusion of the Paralympic Games in Paris. “The NZ Paralympic Team's success in Paris included fantastic performances, personal best times, New Zealand records and Oceania records all being smashed - and of course, many Kiwis on ...1 week ago
- Government progresses response to Abuse in Care recommendations
A Crown Response Office is being established within the Public Service Commission to drive the Government’s response to the Royal Commission into Abuse in Care. “The creation of an Office within a central Government agency was a key recommendation by the Royal Commission’s final report. “It will have the mandate ...2 weeks ago
- Democraticising stocks: At 33, Brooke Roberts leads an investment platform valued at $500 million
At 33, Brooke Roberts leads a $500m investment platform. She believes if you have $5 to invest, you should have the same choices. ...1 hour ago - New data reveals rates of family violence among those who died by suicide
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kate Fitz-Gibbon, Professor (Practice), Faculty of Business and Economics, Monash University, Monash University Shutterstock Domestic, family and sexual violence is rightly recognised as a national crisis. While the evidence base has built significantly in recent years, one important missing piece ...1 hour ago - How perpetrators of domestic violence use drugs and alcohol to control their victims
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Cathy Humphreys, Professor of Social Work, The University of Melbourne panitanphoto/Shutterstock At least three decades of research on the intersection of substance use with domestic and family violence consistently shows the frequency, severity and impact of violence increases in the context ...1 hour ago
- ‘Pirate birds’ force other seabirds to regurgitate fish meals. Their thieving ways could spread ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Simon Gorta, PhD Candidate in ecology, UNSW Sydney Skuas chase a gannet to force it to regurgitate its meal Bob Brewer/Unsplash, CC BY-NC-ND It’s not easy finding food at sea. Seabirds often stay aloft, scanning the churning waters for elusive prey. Most ...1 hour ago
- Are kiwi and moa recent immigrants from Australia? Neither fossils nor genetic evidence support the ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Nic Rawlence, Associate Professor in Ancient DNA, University of Otago Marty Melville/AFP/Getty Images Aotearoa New Zealand is a land of birds, from the smallest of wrens to the mightiest of moa. The ancestors of some species have been here for tens ...1 hour ago
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Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rachel Ong ViforJ, ARC Future Fellow & Professor of Economics, Curtin University Bricolage/Shutterbox For many Australians, the family home is their largest financial asset. With an increasing variety of ways to tap into home equity, the temptation to access this wealth ...1 hour ago
- Are credit checks for ‘buy now, pay later’ schemes enough?
Providers like Afterpay don’t have to carry out affordability tests and were recently allowed to set fees at whatever level they like, writes Stewart Sowman-Lund in this extract from The Bulletin. To receive The Bulletin in your inbox every weekday morning, sign up here. ...3 hours ago - Nursing jobs ‘ghosted’ as Health NZ cuts costs
Te Whatu Ora insists recruitment has continued, but staff say their colleagues aren't being replaced. ...3 hours ago
- Live: Focus on Government law and order efforts
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon can't put a timeframe on when law and order policies will start to reduce the number of victims. ...3 hours ago
- Victims advocate urges frontline investment after increasing violence statistics
It's a stark reversal of the government's goal: 20,000 fewer victims by 2030. ...3 hours ago
- The social media app you forgot about is on every kid’s phone
With nearly 95% of young New Zealanders using Snapchat, staff writer Lyric Waiwiri-Smith looks back at the rise and fall and rise of the yellow app. It is a truth universally acknowledged, that each new generation to possess a smartphone will believe the technology habits of their elders are too ...5 hours ago
- Windbag: How Wellington’s bike network has grown, in three maps
Few cities have ever attempted to build a connected cycling network this quickly. Windbag is The Spinoff’s Wellington issues column, written by Wellington editor Joel MacManus. It’s made possible thanks to the support of The Spinoff Members. Wellington’s cycleway debate is an interminable bore. We’ve had the same mind-numbing arguments ...5 hours ago
- Bipartisan support for constitutional change to Parliament
Years of work spanning three governments has produced a significant reform for Parliament with support from both National and Labour The post Bipartisan support for constitutional change to Parliament appeared first on Newsroom. ...5 hours ago - ‘Cognitive dissonance’ over social services cuts
Social services providers mix frustration over government funding cuts with optimism that they can weather the storm The post ‘Cognitive dissonance’ over social services cuts appeared first on Newsroom. ...5 hours ago
- The neoliberal attack on the Treaty of Waitangi
Opinion: The Government, led by a run-of-the-mill-corporatist, a garden-variety populist and a 10-a-penny libertarian has been considering the future of a singular and unique treaty that is at the heart of what is so special about Aotearoa New Zealand. In the guise of the Treaty Principles Bill, these politicians will ...5 hours ago
- A long, personal and painful read for the minister called Goldie
Analysis: At least 15 times in its urgent report on the proposed law to tighten Māori marine customary rights, the Waitangi Tribunal called out one person The post A long, personal and painful read for the minister called Goldie appeared first on Newsroom. ...5 hours ago
- East Coast forestry industry facing the axe
“Absolutely impossible” consent conditions are causing some East Coast forestry companies to “bleed money” and this could force them to move offshore.Forestry harvesting has already ground to a halt in some areas of Tairāwhiti, part of the fallout after the district was hit by devastating cyclones Hale and Gabrielle last ...5 hours ago
- Brussels still sprouting same old stale economic plans
Opinion: EU plan reflects a deep-seated distrust of market forces and an over-reliance on state-driven solutions The post Brussels still sprouting same old stale economic plans appeared first on Newsroom. ...5 hours ago
- ECan pushes plan change that ‘entrenches water exploitation’
Critics pan a proposed fix after a Supreme Court decision upended how water consents are considered in Canterbury The post ECan pushes plan change that ‘entrenches water exploitation’ appeared first on Newsroom. ...5 hours ago
- Newsroom daily quiz, Tuesday 17 September
Loading…(function(i,s,o,g,r,a,m){var ql=document.querySelectorAll('A,DIV,A[data-quiz],DIV[data-quiz]'); if(ql){if(ql.length){for(var k=0;k<ql.length;k++){ql[k].id='quiz-embed-'+k;ql[k].href="javascript:var i=document.getElementById('quiz-embed-"+k+"');try{qz.startQuiz(i)}catch(e){i.start=1;i.style.cursor='wait';i.style.opacity='0.5'};void(0);"}}};i['QP']=r;i[r]=i[r]||function(){(i[r].q=i[r].q||[]).push(arguments)},i[r].l=1*new Date();a=s.createElement(o),m=s.getElementsByTagName(o)[0];a.async=1;a.src=g;m.parentNode.insertBefore(a,m)})(window,document,'script','https://take.quiz-maker.com/3012/CDN/quiz-embed-v1.js','qp');Got a good quiz question? Send Newsroom your questions.The post Newsroom daily quiz, Tuesday 17 September appeared first on Newsroom. ...5 hours ago
- Red tape earns quarrying spot on Jones’ critical minerals list
Controversy and consenting issues put sand and aggregate on the draft critical minerals list, alongside the likes of cobalt and vanadium The post Red tape earns quarrying spot on Jones’ critical minerals list appeared first on Newsroom. ...5 hours ago
- Daily crossword, Tuesday 17 September
The post Daily crossword, Tuesday 17 September appeared first on Newsroom. ...5 hours ago
- Up close and friendly with Vietnam’s war resistance Củ Chi tunnels
Report by Dr David Robie – Café Pacific. – COMMENTARY: By David Robie in Ho Chi Minh City Vietnam’s famous Củ Chi tunnel network was on our bucket list for years. For me, it was for more than half a century, ever since I had been editor of the ...12 hours ago
- Another assassination attempt, baseless claims about pets, and Taylor Swift: the US election is wild...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jared Mondschein, Director of Research, US Studies Centre, University of Sydney It has not yet been a week since the debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump – in which the Democrat was widely held to have bested the Republican – and ...12 hours ago
- Papua New Guinea celebrates 49 years of independence from Australia
By Scott Waide, RNZ Pacific PNG correspondent, and Lydia Lewis RNZ Pacific journalist Papua New Guinea is today celebrating almost half a century of independence from Australia. The journey has not been easy, and the path since 16 September 1975 has been filled with challenges and triumphs, Prime Minister James ...13 hours ago
- Australia’s new scam prevention draft is welcome – but it needs to be broader in scope
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Have a listen to Michelle Boag. Starts 5:40 min in:
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/05/end-is-nigh-for-simon-bridges-who-may-have-just-two-weeks-left-as-leader-tova-o-brien-michelle-boag.html
Interesting body language. Furious at the result. Does a Matthew Hooton style hate on Jacinda Ardern. But she's a seasoned political player and her predictions as to what will happen and how it will happen resemble your predictions Matthew Whitehead.
Bridges will be go in two weeks according to Michelle. Not willing to pick the new leader.
Edit: she describes the daily Covid 19 updates as “Cindy’s kindy”. 😡
I'd prefer it if we never had to listen to Michelle Boag ever again, personally, but Richard Harman seems to be in agreement that a coup is poised to strike right now if the next poll doesn't turn things around:
https://www.politik.co.nz/2020/05/19/can-bridges-survive/
That said, it sounds like the sticking factor is that there's no clear winner for who would replace him yet, so rolling him would be gambling on a very uncertain future. I also don't think either Muller, Mitchell, or Collins has much of a chance of reversing things even if they do roll him now, but they'd of course be able to blame it on Bridges putting them in too big a hole if they really want to roll the dice. My initial prediction on his ascension that he'd last to 2020 and then get rolled after the election is looking pretty close to accurate, even if I got the exact timing wrong. We'll see on Friday, I guess. 😉
She's so horrible she fascinates me.
Lol. Boag put ethnic MPs in "air quote marks". Evil person.
Me too! She's also very dumb. Over lockdown she said well this is Covid-19 there must have been 18 Covids before and we survived. Oh dear.
OMG that's brilliant! Better than a Tom Sainsbury gag. Haven't had such a laugh for ages, thanks for that!
LOL just used that gag myself. Good one
She would have thought she was being clever when she said that.
boag, played by joanna lumley (patsy). everytime I see one ,I think of the other.
Of course the similarity with Labour dumping Little for Ardern must be tempting for National hoping for a similar miracle.
But it worked for Labour largely because Andrew Little stood down voluntarily with grace and immediate support for the new leader. And has since acquitted himself loyally. Can't see Bridges doing this.
Plus of course National have no-one to touch Ardern. The only one I'd rate is Nikki Kaye and she's in a marginal.
It also worked because people loved Ardern even as deputy and she drove the party to an immediate resurgence despite a complicated and bruising campaign to that point. There is nobody in National right now who seems to have a presence that could compete with that.
(Honestly, National has always struggled with positive campaigning, the best they’ve managed to do under MMP is to just slice away a thousand times at Clark and bleed her to death while vaguing their way through the campaign)
Yeah, "National could do a late Ardern switch" is a false comparison.
It's the first term. National were going for a fourth. Swing voters were open to change.
"I'd prefer it if we never had to listen to Michelle Boag ever again,…"
You do realise that since she is the best that they have as non-MP spokesman, we could presume that the basket is otherwise empty.
Jacinda's been holding us hostage, and the media are all apparently prostrate at the altar of Saint Jacinda the Most Holy (which is news to Tova O'Brien and her well-thumbed catalogue of dumb, accusatory questions I imagine). Boag's a hideous old buzzard who gets wheeled out whenever they want a soundbite from a slightly unhinged partisan muppet. I wish she'd go back to roosting in her dead tree in the Quagmire of Irrelevance.
I'm also amused she hit out at the press conferences the day Ardern has stopped featuring in them because the political issues aren't as pressing anymore.
"Cindy's kindy" is pure envy – 'Boag bile'. Boag's rogues will be bogging themselves
Why did Roy Morgan stop doing the polls? Where they being paid by some one who stopped when the right lost?
Fascinating that Michelle called Jacinda by a silly name. It always feels pretty immature to me – playground stuff – but it does show who the adults in the room are.
I think Roy Morgan was doing existing commercial surveys into the NZ market and added their polls on as a promotional exercise. Apparently it either stopped making economic sense as promotion, or their business in New Zealand might have dried up a bit?
I've asked them on social media before what happened and if there is any intention to possibly return, but never got any answer.
Bogey doesn't realise that namecalling is infantile.
Thank you Mathew. Very interesting. What do you make of Luxton's low key entry to politics?
Didn't like him in private business, don't think much of him yet in politics, but we'll really have to give him a year or so to show his stuff before we know, I think.
I don't buy the idea that you can parachute an outsider into the leadership any faster than that, anyway, so if Bridges is gone now or post-election, Luxon isn't a credible replacement.
Also do any of these scenario's show Simon losing his seat? And are we likely to see any sort of power plays around some of the electorate seats as sitting MP's who are in marginal seats or looking at an unworkable list place try to shore up their chances? Nick Smith?
So all the unmentioned seats are either retained by National at this level of polling, or their retention by Labour wouldn't unseat any incumbent National list MPs.
For clarity, National's expected retentions are:
Bay of Plenty
Botany
Clutha-Southland
Coromandel
East Coast
East Coast Bays
Hamilton East
Hamilton West
Helensville
Hunua
Ilam
Invercargill
Kaikōura
Nelson (if you believe my model over me 😉 )
New Plymouth
North Shore
Northcote
Northland (if NZ First doesn't gain back some ground before the election)
Ōtaki
Pakuranga
Papakura
Rangitata
Rangitīkei
Rodney
Rotorua
Selwyn
Tāmaki
Taranaki-King Country
Taupō
Tauranga
Upper Harbour
Waikato
Waimakariri
Waitaki
Whangarei
Again though, this model is intended to primarily tell us the number of electorates, and individual calls might be wrong or trade-off with seats I've pegged as Labour retentions.
Interesting but why do you have National retaining both Hamilton seats. I think they're likely to swing Labour's way as will Waimakariri and East Coast. Those are seats Labour held up till the momentum changing 2005 onwards. Even Invercargill and New Plymouth are possibilities.
When Boag comes on the radio I turn it off. I can still remember her after an election years ago the morning after National had lost. On air with Kerre Woodham she was hoping that things would go bad in New Zealand. That would have her party back. She was in her 'born to rule' mode.
I enjoyed watching this interview. She reminded me of a grotesque dead mako on the beach. I hope they cleaned the studio after she left.
switching away from Boag or switching off is correct procedure, IMO. If you have to watch her, it should be to formulate a detailed complaint to the broadcaster about why they should stop featuring her and bring on someone relevant. It's fine if they're a Nat, (all parties deserve to be on the air from time to time) but make it a newer one with some fresh ideas. And they should get themselves some Green and NZF-supporting commentators, too.
totally agree. time to give free air maskerading as infotainment to all the parties, or none.
Simon Bridges is a goner regardless. Could be on the cards he will lose his electorate seat in Tauranga as well, given his recent petulant, nasty behaviour. Who in their right mind would vote for him?
Whoever leads National prior to or after the election, will be a temporary leader, keeping the seat warm for Luxon.
So my model expects Tauranga to be retained with a 17% margin even under this incredibly one-sided poll, which is arguably the worst for the Right since MMP became a thing. A 20-point shift in Tauranga would be a MASSIVE indictment on Bridges, and likely require a result like this when the election happens in order to be practical, and I think things are likely to be closer.
'Who in their right mind would vote for him?' A Tauranga Nat, that's who (if you can describe them as being in their right minds) especially after this poll. They'll be scared witless!
I was at a cocktail party in parliament many years ago and Brian Talboys described being comforted by his local president saying :Don't worry, Brian, they'd vote for you if you were a dead horse, as long as you were a Nat'
I guess the same will apply here!
Brian Talboys was one of the gentlemen politicians imo. They existed in both parties and funnily enough outside of parliament they were known to be personal friends.
Those were the days before PM Muldoon, who changed the political landscape forever.
I agree – as were Doug Carter, George Gair and Les Gandar . My partner at the time was a parliamentary reporter so I saw a bit of these men.And then there was the ghastly Robert Muldoon – undergoing the process of becoming the leader of the Nats. I remember asking Doug Carter why – surely they didn't like him. He agreed but said they thought he could win for them. He was right! Doesn't say much for the average nat voter does it 🙁
Michelle is lying again… can’t get National under its bedrock 30% support?
2002 election 20.93% would suggest otherwise.
Funny that. Michelle Boag National Party President 2001-2002.
In denial. Not a mere psychological reflex – people can and do subconsciously deselect memories. They get deleted. I've encountered a classic instance in one of my younger brothers, years ago, when I reminded him of something unusual that he did, and got indignant denial. Since it lasted a couple of hours when I visited him, it formed an enduring memory for me – but for him it never happened. His belief is genuine – since we get on fine no grudge can explain it.
I suspect she has done exactly that due to it being a blot on her interior landscape when it happened.
Memories don’t get deleted as such, they get buried (repressed) or twisted, especially unpleasant (traumatic) ones.
I think the big take away from all this is having much more direct broadcasting of press conferences and even select committees so the opposition get a chance too, rather than having all this filtered through a media lens that is frequently right wing. That way we can all see what is going on. Heck I'd even like to be able to ask some questions myself in these press conferences.
Yeah I think actually Bridges is underestimating just how much his ERC performances hurt his brand and his party's popularity rather than enhanced it.
yes – I've always urged people at election time to go along to the meetings and actually have a look at the people who want their vote. Mainly because if push comes to shove with a major crisis, then no matter which party, you want somebody with a bit of ability and who has the personal values to be genuinely concerned about their community and want to do the best for their fellow citizens.
It also has it's moments like when a loud voice behind one goes "who would vote for That!" ( Nat candidate for Ohariu)
Thanks Matthew, that's a really comprehensive round-up. Really detailed.
FWIW I don't believe it will be as catastrophic for National as some on here imagine. There's some wildly premature celebrating going on. It's good to have a laugh but let's not drift into fantasy.
The Right combined (not "National" only) is certain to get 40% plus at the election. They did even in 2002. (NZF were not allied to Labour at all, had never been at that stage). But there are fewer options than 2002 (Dunne is done) and no sign of any party breaking through from outside Parliament. So unhappy righties will have to stick with National or back ACT. Winston? It's their very last resort.
Holding your nose and voting for a lesser evil is what voters do. Ask anybody who voted Blair after Iraq (because not Tory) or will vote Biden (because not Trump) or a hundred other examples from history.
Expect National voters to do it too.
Yes, I expect Labour will lose about 7-8% by election day from their high, (if this is it…) assuming no big political events happen that shift the dynamic further like COVID-19 did. That would still put Labour solidly in a position to govern with the Greens, together with NZF if they find a way back, or alone if somehow both support parties fell under threshold.
you are still thinking fpp. dont confuse our system with ones that havent evolved.
I don't really understand your point. RW voters will want to vote for a RW party, regardless of electoral system. Even in Newshub's catastrophic poll, the RW (minus NZF) gets a third of the vote combined. That's despite Bridges tanking, and 91% supporting the lockdown.
MMP gives those right-leaning voters more options, but fewer now than when MMP started – a legacy of National eating their allies. So National/ACT are likely to keep them.
Nothing Observer said was typical of an FPP mindset, in my view?
There tends to be two types of soft supporters- those that are attached to a particular ideology or combination of ideologies that might match well with a particular party, eg. conservative leftists, conservationist ring-wingers, environmentalist leftists, etc…, vs those who might be genuine swing supporters, eg. liberal leftists between Labour and the Greens, conservative centrists between National, Labour, and NZF, right-wing liberals between ACT and National, and right-wing conservatives between NZF and National. Saying that there are roughly 35% of voters who tend to vote for a roughly right-aligned or conservative-aligned party even when their performance is absolutely dire is not unreasonable- in fact 2002 tends to support that if one notes that United Future was quite conservative and right-wing.
I should also point out that analysing electorates under MMP is, from a systemic viewpoint at least, (although not necessarily 100% in voter behaviour) functionally identical to FPP.
… unhappy righties will have to stick with National or back ACT. Winston? It's their very last resort. Holding your nose and voting for a lesser evil is what voters do.
Depends on if there is still an 'anything to keep the greens out of government' bloc like there was in 2002 who voted Labour instead. I tend to think it's a significantly diminished chunk of the population, but who really knows?
These days that bloc is the Winston First caucus. #diminishedfaculties
Anyway, the Newshub report tonight strongly suggests Bridges is going to be rolled next Tuesday. Even allowing for media hype, it's obviously now more than just gossip.
Wouldn't it be funny if the TVNZ poll was better for National, which they often are, and so the plotters lose their nerve …
Save Our Simon!
your second paragraph is probably whats going to happen. drowning people clutch at any straw. and plotters often lack individual courage. since the nats dont have an obvious replacement, various different plotters have only a few backers. perhaps the nats should do the decent thing and split into two or three right wing parties.
It shows me they are all gutless and don't believe their own abilities. How are they to convince the NZ public of their abilities if they don't believe in themselves?
Imagine Bridges’ phone calls tonight. Starts off, “are you taping me?”
Likely. Colmar Brunton has a general bias towards National. Not saying it is deliberate, but something to do with the way they conduct their polls – maybe more landlines than Reid Research.
RNZ is now reporting that Bridges has defensively called a caucus vote on leadership, so 'shub was definitely correct about the knives being out. A coup is never a coup until it's actually attempted, ofc.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/417070/power-play-it-s-all-on-as-simon-bridges-appears-to-call-challengers-bluff
The Colmar Brunton (One News) poll has gone backwards and forwards on who out of National and Labour it tends to favour relative to the Reid Research poll. RR had Labour in a weaker position than CB before the 2017 election, and it actually got closer to getting things right. I wouldn't be so concerned on what their individual lean is so much as whether their methodology causes them to be bad predictors of the election given their timeframe. CB is, in my opinion, the less accurate of the two polls, but that has nothing to do with where it places Labour relative to National.
I think CB would need to show National at something more like 38% or 40% to put Simon in a secure position for now. What he's probably hoping is to buy Collins off so he can keep the party stable under his leadership until the election. I think he's gone after the election regardless of what happens, quite frankly, but it might not be immediately after.
The voters dont trust National not to impose austerity if they win.