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Newshub Poll Shock!

Written By: - Date published: 6:30 pm, May 18th, 2020 - 158 comments
Categories: act, bill english, class war, election 2020, elections, greens, jacinda ardern, labour, national, nz first, polls, tv - Tags: , ,

 

Image

 

Party Vote:

Labour: 56.5%. Greens: 5.5%. NZ First: 2.7%

National: 30.6% ACT 1.8%

Translated to Seats:

Labour: 72, Greens 7

National: 39, ACT 2.

Preferred Prime Minister:

Jacinda Ardern: 59.5%, Simon Bridges: 4.5%, Judith Collins: 3.1%

 

That’s a lot of unemployed National  MP’s. Only Bill English really knows how Simon Bridges is feeling about now. Shame nobody wants to take the job off him.

Jacinda Ardern and her cabinet, MP’s and staff should take the credit. Over 90% of Kiwis approve the Covid 19 strategy. The communication and delivery of our response has been world class.

Bad news for NZ First. There’s still a chance that some of the lost Tory vote will come their way. If I’m correct that the PM would be wise to keep them in the tent to help guarantee a third term, then some conservative voters might look to Winston to be the opposition within the Government.

But that’s a slim chance.

For now, lets just bask in the glory that is finally burying the claim that John Key was our most popular PM.

I never thought he was, and now he ain’t.

 

EDIT: There’s still hope, righties:

 

 

158 comments on “Newshub Poll Shock!”

  1. Ad 1

    We were worse than this National result after the 2014 result. Much worse.

    • If "we" means Labour, there's no direct comparison, since Labour has the Green Party to the left of it. You'd have to compare Labour/Green 2014 with National/ACT now.

      • Ad 1.1.1

        Labour was down at 24.7% at 2014.

        In terms of being able to build a party up again to a place where it could imagine governing, it takes that long.

        If you were inside Labour at that point, you'd understand where Bridges is now.

        • weka 1.1.1.1

          What are the things that have changed in Labour since then?

          Ardern changed everything obviously, but the other stuff is less visible from the outside.

        • Muttonbird 1.1.1.2

          Why didn't you bother to put that in the first comment? Is it because you are addicted to controversial commenting?

          Grow. Up.

        • te reo putake 1.1.1.3

          While you are correct that Labour were below 25% just before the 2014 election, it's important to remember that they ceded most of their vote to the parties they would go into Government with just 3 years later.

          In 2014 it was Labour 25%, Greens 10% and NZF just under 9% for a total of 44%, against National's 47% (governing with support from the Maori Party, ACT and United Future).

          In today's poll, National are ceding their vote directly to Labour.

          • Ad 1.1.1.3.1

            Everyone's ceding vote to Labour. Particularly our support partners.

            • observer 1.1.1.3.1.1

              That is poor maths. Look at the numbers.

              Support is being picked up from National and NZF. Not the other support partner.

              The Greens are doing better than every previous support party, in 24 years of MMP.

              • Muttonbird

                It's dreadful maths and dreadfully lazy analysis. The Greens have not lost a point and NZF maybe 2% or 3% tops. The Nats meanwhile have shipped 13%.

                So not "particularly our support partners" at all. That is not even remotely true.

                • Ad

                  Perfectly true as a % loss of vote.

                  A 10% loss leaves a perfectly viable National Party.

                  A 2.3% loss underwater sees NZF gone.

                  A .6% loss sees the Greens gone.

                  And anyone who believe Labour will be at 50% at polling day and able to govern by themselves is delusional. So this poll is a nasty campaign shock for the continuance of Jacinda.

                  .6% not look like a lot of votes changing for the Greens, but actually it means everything. It means government or not.

                  • Muttonbird

                    You're mad. I just looked at the NZF change and it wasn't 2-3%, it was less than 1%.

                    Why can't you admit that you were wrong when you said:

                    Everyone's ceding vote to Labour. Particularly our support partners.

                    • Ad

                      "underwater" means the 5% threshold.

                      The vote decreases in National, Greens, and NZFirst, probably haven't gone to Act. They've gone to Labour .

                      On this poll both Greens and NZF have now put a second Labour-led government at very high risk of failure.

                    • Muttonbird

                      Don't try and skirt around what you claimed with this lazy crypto-speak you like to indulge in.

                      The rest of us commenters are held to a high standard having to explain exactly what we mean with links and approved commenting style.

                      Why are you allowed to get away with not doing the same?

                    • Incognito []

                      Hang on there, soldier! There’s a lot to unpack in that comment.

                      It is true that some of us have been trying to lift the quality of comments here and I don’t make any apologies for that!

                      There is no “approved commenting style”; there is the site’s policy & rules that everybody should know. They are lenient and not prescriptive by any means. We encourage robust debate.

                      When one asserts something, they need to back it up.

                      When one quotes something, they need to provide a link.

                      When one gets a little too personal and carried away, they need to tone it down.

                      Ad’s comments can be hard to follow but in this instance, I think he’s been quite clear. In fact, I’d agree with him; complacency can be this Government’s undoing. He’s stating his opinion, quite clearly, and, as such, doesn’t need to provide a link 😉

                    • Muttonbird

                      I am not surprised you would back him up! I'm also not surprised you failed to see what I'm trying to hold Ad to account for. That is the statement that support in this poll has gone to Labour "particularly" from its support partners.

                      That is plainly untrue. Yet some people get away with untruths.

                      Ad’s and your own redirection to an argument about non-existent complacency was off topic.

                      You could publicly ask Ad to make his comments easier to follow. That would be great.

                      It’s a massive turn off for new commenters as I’m sure you are aware.

              • Ad

                Look it's great to see the Greens survive. They're lower than where they were when they got in last time.

                No one should be pleased with this Green polling result. .5% above death is not a place to be.

                We should take about 30 minutes to be happy for Labour.

                But we got to 61% a few years back and still needed Dunne and still make a government.

            • Bearded Git 1.1.1.3.1.2

              Disagree…greens are holding up

  2. Kat 2

    Her comment gives us all a clue as to why she is so popular: "It speaks to the work we've jointly done. I just happen to have had the humble and privileged opportunity to be leading at this time."

    Labour have indeed come home.

  3. observer 3

    Tova was talking about TV3 polls. Not all polls.

    Key's numbers in first term.

    Key is still the record holder if we're relying on individual polls. Better to count votes.

    • Incognito 3.1

      He will always be in the record books for being the most likeable but not for being the kindest. I know which record I’d prefer.

      • clare 3.1.1

        what do you mean "likeable", he always gave me the creeps. slimy bastard

        • Incognito 3.1.1.1

          That was his persona, or at least one of them, and one that many bought into. It is and was always in the eye of the beholder.

          • JO 3.1.1.1.1

            Let's swap likeable for affable which better describes what a lot of people thought they saw. Cheshire cat grins and the lean and hungry look of yonder Cassius, likeable?

  4. Dennis Frank 4

    Okay, that's good for Aotearoa, but the danger for Labour is obvious: over-confidence & complacency. The PM will need to alert her caucus & staff to that!

    It's historic, certainly. A vindication of her pandemic strategy. That 90% rating holding up this long is astonishing.

    • Incognito 4.1

      yesenlightened

    • Chris 4.2

      I hope Labour takes the time to think about how it can bust the myth that they come second when it comes to managing the economy. It's difficult times that show how vital that is. The talk is that in a few months when the real aftermath hits, if it does, then people will turn to the nats. That general view is based on the assumption that the nats are better at finance, but that's not true and probably never has been. Sure, Labour are going to have to continue to show they're up to it. But the job wouldn't be so difficult if the truth about who the better managers of the economy are were common knowledge.

      • Incognito 4.2.1

        Not as long as you have people such as Luke Malpass, the Political Editor of Stuff, propagating similar views:

        Robertson is expected to do similar, but with a party and Government that have higher spending wired into their DNA.

        https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/opinion/121523741/coronavirus-the-covid19-budget-and-the-consequences-campaign

        • Chris 4.2.1.1

          So just accept the falsehood because nothing can be done to change it. Such a can-do attitude.

          • Incognito 4.2.1.1.1

            It was a direct reply to your last sentence. In fact, I agreed with your comment that Labour is up against public perception. I don’t think I suggested that it was a reason to do nothing!?

            • Chris 4.2.1.1.1.1

              That's good.

            • Chris 4.2.1.1.1.2

              Just tonight in a story on TV3 news that talked about the obvious need for Labour to deliver on the economy, the assumption was that the nats were better financial managers and that Labour. It's that widespread myth regarding the two parties' track records on things financial, as opposed to, for example, what's required in the upcoming months and what the message should be, that Labour needs to address. How to do that successfully is of course another matter, but it's crucial that basic untruth is dealt to. Once that's been done it becomes so much easier for the general public to see that national have no clothes.

        • Nic the NZer 4.2.1.2

          Labour need to change the basis for the conversation. Healthy economic policy is not penny pinching at the first opportunity or balancing the budget. In fact Robertson is getting there with the focus on employment but will need to communicate what is being done directly to the public.

          • Incognito 4.2.1.2.1

            They want a clearly articulated plan for the economy, which is maybe asking a little too much, for a number of reasons, but there you have it. Even just five bullet points will do it, for National voters 😉

            • Nic the NZer 4.2.1.2.1.1

              At least inside the neo-liberal framework I consider long term planning pointless. Essentially the long term plans are to be brought out and looked at in a few years and everyone can have a good laugh about all the irrelevant concerns of the long forgotten past.

              Labour need to shift the public discourse to a place where the country can afford public goods and not just the subset of commercially profitable ones. Then we can worry about the longer term as these institutions will start surviving the next economic downturn.

              • Incognito

                Ok, but what is the point of public discourse if not to offer an acceptable plan to the masses?

                • Nic the NZer

                  The government did in fact offer a plan, its called the budget, but the first step is going to have to be explaining to the public how the budget (and other public policy) works. The media clearly didn't understand it or explain it on reasonable terms so should be bypassed until they are able to expain that.

                  I was actually fairly impressed by the govt recovery plans (esp the green party additions) even if they didn't sound like some over-arching plan to the media.

                  Public discourse is to explain how you are governing and earning the rights to govern in a fit manner. Its not just a forecasting activity.

                  • Incognito

                    I’m afraid you may have to count me in with the public that don’t fully understand the over-arching recovery plan but it sounded good to me, for the most part. I’ve never had the feeling with this or previous Governments that I was presented with a robust, cohesive, and coherent plan based on strong values. The rhetoric is never far away and major speeches always include the right words that resonate with people but then I make a coffee and it is BAU again. The more things change, the more they stay the same. For a fleeting moment I had hope that there is a silver lining to the pandemic and the lockdown but now I’m not so sure anymore. Was this the existential crisis that was meant to shake us out of our apathy? I know you tend to view things through an economic lens so please ignore my rant.

                    • Nic the NZer

                      I guess it would be nice to have a more comprehensive narrative to provide some certainty, but on the other hand if you had the 5 year plan in front of you (and New Zealand still produces them as much as China does) would you take it particularly seriously?

                      I mean the recent history of these has been basically Wayne's notion of measure the change in debt to GDP and the deficit against GDP and then use it as an indicator of the countries socialist vs capitalist direction. But this is just so meaningless its not even a narrative worth worrying about.

                      I am more interested in the actual social (and economic) change and I believe it happens in a sequence of small steps so its more important to focus on the direction of travel and the next steps than to worry much about what it will be like once the destination is reached. There is also the conundrum that in New Zealand at least its about multiple peoples plans for the destination and we need to take into account that even the people on the same page have subtle differences as to the implications of the plans before them.

                      My brief summary is that this episode is basically the oppositions 'but you never gave us a plan' narrative. Neither side has actually had any more to their plans previously of course, but this just now appears to be the best spin to some aspects of the media.

                    • Incognito []

                      Ta

    • Craig H 4.3

      See Ad's point above about 61% and Dunne – Caucus has been reminded of that…

  5. For those of us who had to watch the polls from 2008 and facepalm our way through another election defeat after defeat, it's a nice feeling to direct a belly laugh, or six, towards our blue brethren in pain. Well played agent Soiman, well played. lol

    Good to see the greens still above the line, and heartening they haven't shed the core support to the dominant player. Big push needed in the coming months for safety and improvement.

    Awesome to see NZfist tanking hard.

    • Cinny 5.1

      Hehehehe my kids kicked me out of the lounge for laughing too much while we watched the news on 3 tonight.

      • The Al1en 5.1.1

        Don't worry, you can get your chuckle back on when the rwnj commenters turn up later and start posting about rogue polls or some such nonsense, or don’t show up at all.

        Looks like those leaked polls weren't too far off the mark, either.

        • Cinny 5.1.1.1

          Looks like those leaked polls weren't too far off the mark, either.

          Indeed 🙂 Roll on Wednesday morning when simon does his media rounds, wonder if any interviewers will mention it.

          • The Al1en 5.1.1.1.1

            Well if the media really are unbiased after all, and with the scent of blue blood fresh in the air, they'll be looking for every leader gaff, snide comment from back benchers, or in every Wellington fishmongers for odd sized snapper on display to comment on.

    • Bearded Git 5.2

      +100000

  6. Anne 6

    But… but… but… that can't be right. I heard Matthew Hooton say this morning that this government's fortunes are going to tank. I mean, he's an expert . He says so, so it must be right.

    • To be fair, there's only one direction they can go in from here. "Plummet" might be pushing it a bit, though…

    • observer 6.2

      Well, they probably will fall (if not "plummet").

      The up/down narrative is the nature of news. If Labour are on 52% in the next poll, that is a very good result under MMP. But the headline will be "Labour slump" … or plummet.

  7. Hooch 7

    I’m sure this will get some people fomenting at the mouth

  8. Peter 8

    What does this mean for Goldsmith in Epsom? Would National voters have to vote for him to see him in?

    • observer 8.1

      The opposition finance spokesperson would always get a top 3 or 4 list placing, even if s/he is not deputy leader.

      He's in no danger, unless voters go mad and split between left party votes and Nat electorate votes.

    • Yep. On this result, National will likely have no list MP's. However, if they lose several of their normally safe electorate seats, I guess it's possible Goldsmith might scrape in if he's high enough up the list.

      I'm thinking here of seats like Northcote, Tuki Tuki, Otaki, Nelson and Rangitata, which currently have 5000+ margins. Imagine if Papakura (margin 7500) went red. I'd really miss Judith Collins.

      • bwaghorn 8.2.1

        With a bit of luck goldsmith might fight tooth and nail to win his electorate and rimmer is gone burger

        • Nic the NZer 8.2.1.1

          More like we will have to see if Rimmer can win even one election against an opponent who isn't throwing it. National runs a very fine line each election and one false step like, Goldsmith saying vote for me in the wrong place, or leaving too many billboards up, could accidentally tip the election in his favour.

          • Tricledrown 8.2.1.1.1

            Seymour is on Welfare National have no choice and even National voters are leaving Bridges for an even dumber try hard.

            Desperate times.

    • Graeme 8.3

      Also what it means for the lower ranked electorate MPs in safe blue seats like Hamish Walker and Jackie Dean, and I'm sure there's plenty more up north who'll be in safe jobs at the expense of high ranking list MPs.

      Are we going to see a lot of them 'reconsider their future in politics' and retire to 'spend time with their families' only to have said high ranked list MPs selected in their place.

  9. r0b 9

    Good result – a silver lining to a terrible pandemic crisis. Time to thank those voters who have newly given Labour their trust, and ask them to extend that trust to a second term in office…

  10. Incognito 10

    The curve will flatten from here onwards.

  11. Ad 11

    .5% above water shows the Greens need to work a whole bunch harder to get back in at all.

    • froggleblocks 11.1

      Come election time when it's clear we'll have a Labour-led government, left-wing Labour voters will vote Greens instead to give them more power, especially to act as a counter balance to NZ First.

      That’s probably worth 1%, or may even 2%.

      • Ad 11.1.1

        There needs to be an actual reason to vote Green that comes from the Green Party. There's no need to counter NZF since they're unlikely to be there at all. This poll should be a massive wakeup call to the Greens to go all out to fight for survival.

        • froggleblocks 11.1.1.1

          The reason to vote for Greens in 2020 is so that they will still be around to be in Parliament in 2023. And then 2026. And then 2029. And then 2032.

          That, seriously, is reason enough, because eventually it won't be a Labour-led government any more and every voice we can get on the left is of net benefit.

          NZFirst vote is likely to go up once people realise National won't have a chance of winning, in much the same way that NZFirst and United Future rode the wave in 2002. In fact 2020 is just 2002 re-jigged when you look at the digits.

          • Ad 11.1.1.1.1

            Voting Green in order that they continue to exist is only going to appeal to the few thousand members they have. Same as any party.

            I'd want to see the Greens' next two months building on what the Climate Commission requests of government … and make it extraordinarily popular.

            • froggleblocks 11.1.1.1.1.1

              Voting Green in order that they continue to exist is only going to appeal to the few thousand members they have. Same as any party.

              And yet clearly they are out-polling the number of members they have.

              Now, if they were polling like in the 2-3% zone I'd agree with you. But they aren't, and haven't ever polled that low since becoming their own party separate from the Alliance.

              • Ad

                Simply proves my point that the appeal to "vote-Green-just-because" isn't enough.

                Greens are in government, and there's plenty of Green supporters even here who say they did great out of the budget. Greens have got major policies through this government.

                And yet they are .5% from Parliamentary oblivion. It's not whether they are 2 or 3%. It's how close they are to 5%.

                This time around in 2017 they were near 10%.

                Shaw needs to do something that pulls up at least another 1% out from somewhere.

                Same for NZF even though they often come from below 5% and still get in there.

                • Drowsy M. Kram

                  "Shaw needs to do something that pulls up at least another 1%…" – does it have to be Shaw, in your opinion? Your concern for the Green's does you credit – I'm shaw they'll take your well-intentioned advice on board.

                • Incognito

                  Shaw needs to do something that pulls up at least another 1% out from somewhere.

                  Same for NZF even though they often come from below 5% and still get in there.

                  One insurance policy both parties could try is to win an electorate, each. Doable when National is ‘tanking’?

                • Porkpies

                  They may have been around 10% this time in 2017 but they tanked big time soon after with the Metiria Turei benefit fraud own goal and dropped to about 5%. However they still managed to climb back to 6.2% at the election. I agree the Greens need to raise their profile in the run in to election day but I don't think it's time to panic just yet.

                  • KJT

                    Actually went up, after Metiria exposed our miserly welfare.

                    Then went down, with the two turncoats giving the public an impression of dissention.

            • UncookedSelachimorpha 11.1.1.1.1.2

              " Voting Green in order that they continue to exist is only going to appeal to the few thousand members they have. "

              I'll be voting for them for that reason, and I'm not a member

        • Craig H 11.1.1.2

          The actual reason is to ensure a Labour government by avoiding that annoying scenario where the Greens take 4.9% of the leftwing vote and cause a National government. There are plenty of swing Green/Labour voters who will vote Green if they have to.

      • weka 11.1.2

        or to act as a counter balance to Labour.

  12. Reality 12

    As he always does, Simon Bridges couldn’t help himself making a snide comment about getting a haircut but not a hair dye. If he had the right touch he could have made a lighthearted comment about perhaps he should get a hair dye.

    • The Al1en 12.1

      Looking like a startled Rabbit in the headlights, isn't that enough to make the hare die?

    • observer 12.2

      @Reality

      That sums it up. He "couldn't help himself" is the right diagnosis, I think. It's not about a strategy or policies, it's a deep personal flaw.

      Which is why commentators who say "He'll learn from his mistakes" are missing the point. He repeats his mistakes because he can't see them. You need some self-awareness to learn and change, but he has none.

    • Anne 12.3

      No SoH that's why.

  13. Jacinda Adern has been tempered by sad events, and has risen to the task at hand each time, showing leadership and grace.

    As she pointed out, they would bring the same team attitude to repairing the economy.

    Start donating and helping your local MP We are on a roll towards improving this country. Now that doesn't mean we will get all we want, but we are going in the right direction. "We Are Doing This!!"

  14. observer 14

    Later this week there will be a TVNZ/Colmar Brunton poll (as always after a Budget).

    Now I'm kinda hoping the results won't be as brutal. Otherwise even National's dimmest light bulbs will get the message, and do the deed.

    Save Our Simon.

    • ianmac 14.1

      Exactly observer. We need Simon.

    • Dennis Frank 14.2

      Oh, good. I predict some reassurance for National. CB seems to produce results putting National higher than RR – dunno why. So the differential of 13% is likely to appear in single digits – and if National is mid-30s they probably won't roll Simon unless they can agree on a suitable replacement. Lack of evident agreement is still working for him.

  15. infused 15

    It's a combination really.

    I think what sealed the deal for National was that stupid post Simon did on Facebook. He's had some good things to attack and ballsed them up.

    Jacinda has held a press conference every, single, day. She didn't need to, but she took the opportunity to steal the oxygen. Remember, Jacinda and Labour were getting beaten up before covid hit.

    The govt has poured so much money into NZ that there's going to be no issues in the short term. All the problems are pushed out until next year, or certainly after the election.

    So I think what we are going to get is some massive economic troubles next year, and not a lot of cash to deal with it. Taxes will go up and people will lose thier job.

    I've pointed this out ages ago btw, it's not some new thing. I also posted the same thing on Kiwiblog this morning and I had no idea this poll was coming out. It was worse than i'd expected though.

    So, I hope you're all buckled in for a rough ride.

    • observer 15.1

      I think everyone (who's honest) knows there are huge economic challenges ahead.

      In 2021 we could be enduring a global recession with no end in sight, or enjoying a bounce back. We have no idea because the virus could be anything from getting worse to getting beaten.

      Maybe it will cost Ardern the 2023 election. Or maybe the Auckland eruptions and tsunami of 2022 will. Who knows?

    • Anne 15.2

      Jacinda has held a press conference every, single, day. She didn't need to, but she took the opportunity to steal the oxygen.

      It was a major crisis. Thousands of lives were at stake. The first few weeks in particular were especially frightening. It was her duty to front up daily and help calm the populace and allay our anxieties. She and Ashley Bloomfield did a fantastic job.

      You right wingers can't fathom compassion and real leadership can you. No insight bar your own half baked tunnel-vision fantasies with a large dollop of sour grapes on top.

      • infused 15.2.1

        there were not thousands of lives at stake. the revised modeling shows this. dont confused compassion with clear thinking. you seem to be either one or the other.

        real leadership isnt that binary

        think i fucked up my email. on a phone hence in moderation

        [Yeah, you ‘fucked up’ the e-mail address and the system didn’t recognise you. One Moderator must have released your comment and I’ve just corrected the e-mail address. All this service for free! – Incognito]

      • Tricledrown 15.2.2

        Not every single day John Key wouldn't of done anywhere near that.

        He got Brownlie to do pike river and Canterbury.

    • Muttonbird 15.3

      It will be a rough ride but a country which has the stunning leadership we do will rally together and get through it. We were brought on board by JA and her team with clear and inspirational communication about the challenges and we responded. No reason to believe we can't respond to the economic headwinds in front of us too.

      • infused 15.3.1

        Well that *sounds* good, but they better hurry up and create a solid plan.

        The skeptic in me thinks this is a pile of money to push the problems in to 2021. I mean, this govt doesn't have a very good track record on delivery.

    • KJT 15.4

      A lot less rough than with National in charge.

      The people who cannot even get the right number, dividing projected debt by 5 million.

    • I Feel Love 15.5

      Everytime Bridges did get a sound bite or 2 he invariably fkd it up, so I doubt having him on telly every day would have helped him really. Basically NZrs know the future is gonna be tough, but Simon & co are not the ones to help us through it.

      • KJT 15.5.1

        Even more scary for National. Bridges is, by far, the best they have.

        • observer 15.5.1.1

          I disagree. The best of those being mentioned in the media, maybe. i.e. not Collins or Mitchell.

          That excludes people leaving (Amy Adams) or waiting (Nikki Kaye, Chris Bishop). They're all better than Bridges.

          • KJT 15.5.1.1.1

            Actually agree with Amy Adams and Nicky Kay.

            Wonder why they are in National?

          • infused 15.5.1.1.2

            The bish is a bit too soon imo. Nikki is the only real candidate I can think of. No one likes Collins.

      • infused 15.5.2

        I don't doubt. There's very few who like Simon. I've said that for some time.

    • Tricledrown 15.6

      Infused can't help yourself trying to spread a negative future cynically.

      Bridges has acted like a complete Dick no excuses .

  16. Muttonbird 16

    Even worse for National – they will be consumed with Bridges’ catastrophically poor performance and how to win the election rather than providing policy alternatives for the '50 year plan' the country apparently requires.

    National Party embedded media and commentators (including Josie Pagani) were all over the idea that the Nats ‘needed more time’ to come up with policy which New Zealand could honestly vote on. The election should be delayed, they cried.

    This is how the Nats repay Josie, by obsessing about themselves, lol.

    • Stephen D 16.1

      The Nats have a couple of choices.

      1.Stick with Simon and sacrifice a bunch of lower list MPs.

      2.Roll Simon for a leader who will pick up the party vote in the short term, then fall on her sword.

      3.Roll Simon for a leader who will take the loss, and rally the troops for a decent tilt at 2023.

      Senior caucus members probably want 1 or 3. Lower list MPs Judith. She might not win the election, but they know at least she'd take the fight to Jacinda.

  17. Cave Johnson 17

    So what is Winstone's plan? Do or say something ‘outrageous’ to get attention? Try to do a deal with Labour for a seat? Or decide it's time to retire and go fishing?

  18. Nic 181 18

    Oh JOY!! What can you say? Watch the Australian owned news media huff and puff about that result!

  19. Tricledrown 19

    Peter's support always goes up at election time.

    National voters will give him more support for him to put a handbrake on Labour

    • Muttonbird 19.1

      That will bleed even more votes from National. Could Bill English's 22% be under threat?

    • Craig H 19.2

      Also, party vote polls don't include "don't know", but there is always some, and NZ First commonly does well in that segment when it comes time to choose in the ballot box.

      • Dennis Frank 19.2.1

        Yeah, commentators often forget the third of the electorate who are non-aligned. Depends which way the wind is blowing on election day? Only partly. I think many choose their vote in the week or two prior. Never discount word of mouth. Only ever takes a good rumour to shift the masses…

        • Craig H 19.2.1.1

          That's basically why the polls aren't very reliable until the last week or two.

    • infused 19.3

      I think you will see national gain a bit back before the election. Nothing to get them close to winning, but I do see this as a covid pump poll.

      I do think now a few will vote NZF to keep Labour in check. Might backfire though

  20. observer 20

    We're missing the real story here. Who will be Labour's 72nd MP? Somebody who only agreed to make up the numbers, but accidentally gets a new job.

    Fun fact: in the 2011 and 2014 elections this would have elected the entire Labour list.

    • Muttonbird 20.1

      In NZ and under MMP all parties face this issue. A large or unexpected rise in popularity puts some real idiots in Parliament. The sort of person who might struggle to hold a job in real life.

      If any list were to be fulfilled we right now it would be The Greens. They seem to have talent to burn.

  21. spinster 21

    Good news well done Labour

  22. millsy 22

    If these numbers hold, it would be the first time since 1987 that Labour won an election in its own right.

  23. swordfish 23

    2002 vs 2020 Comparisons

    TV3 Poll Results (4 months out from Election)

    (2002 = TV3 NFO / 2020 = Newshub Reid Research)

    Lab

    2002 TV3 Poll 56.0% … 2002 Election Result 41.3%

    2020 TV3 Poll 56.5%

    Green

    2002 TV3 Poll 4.5 % … 2002 Election Result 7.0%

    2020 TV3 Poll 5.5%

    NZF

    2002 TV3 Poll 1.9% … 2002 Election Result 10.4%

    2020 TV3 Poll 2.7%

    Nat

    2002 TV3 Poll 28.0% … 2002 Election Result 20.9%

    2020 TV3 Poll 30.6%

    ACT

    2002 TV3 Poll 3.4% … 2002 Election Result 7.1%

    2020 TV3 Poll 1.8%

    Preferred PM

    2002

    Clark 45.0%

    English 10.0%

    2020

    Ardern 59.5%

    Bridges 4.5%

    • swordfish 23.1

      TV3 Preferred PM

      HIGHEST RATINGS (For recent PMs)

      Ardern 59.5% (May 2020)

      Key 55.8% (Oct 2009)

      Clark 48.0% (June 2002)

      It's been argued on Twitter that Bridges latest 4.5% (May 2020) is the lowest TV3 rating for any Oppo Ldr … but in fact Goff started on a pretty abysmal 3.7% in Feb 2009 (1st TV3 Poll of his leadership).

      Helen Clark, of course, notoriously hit a rock-bottom of 2% during her first term as Oppo Leader (Colmar Brunton). Only have exhaustive TV3 data from 1996 onwards – her lowest rating in a TV3 Poll over that period would appear to be 4% in May 1996. And in the days before TV3, National’s Jim McClay (sometimes cited as the least popular Oppo Leader since regular polling commenced) fell to a personal nadir of 3% (Colmar Brunton) before being toppled by Bolger in 1986.

  24. Muttonbird 24

    Luke Malpass, an Australian right wing import tries his best to paint the Newshub poll in the best possible light for his masters.

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/opinion/121551683/new-poll-puts-bridges-near-the-death-spiral

  25. Peter 25

    Audrey Young in the HeraId more than answered my question, "What does this mean for Goldsmith in Epsom? Would National voters have to vote for him to see him in?"

    She said it "should also be remembered that four of Bridges' front bench are list MPs – Bennett, finance spokesman Paul Goldsmith, health spokesman Michael Woodhouse and Alfred Ngaro are list MPs and none would be returned to Parliament on current polling."

    It is fair to say I would not be heartbroken if Paula Bennett missed out. I know others who think exactly the same.

    • mac1 25.1

      To get Goldsmith, they'll be voting for him, not Seymour. Therefore, goodbye ACT. Extreme right then sloughs off from National to join ACT and Conservative elements in 2023 to enable some coalition prospects for the National rump. Meanwhile Jamie-Lee Ross causes mischief in the centre-right.

      Won't happen? Check what happened to Labour with the Alliance, ACT, Dunne's UF all springing from FPP Labour.

  26. AB 26

    Give it a few months and a lot of journalists will be saying that Chris Luxon is the sort of guy everyone wants to have a beer with.

    • James Thrace 26.1

      Right after everyone realises what a misogynistic, homophobic, soulless money driver he is.

      Mmhmmm

      Have you been in a room with him? He has no charisma. John Key had charisma, even if he walked around like a snake in a human skin suit. Luxon has zero charm. Why do you think National have muzzled him from any media appearances except with a minder?

      [Nice slur there. Would you mind backing up the “misogynistic, homophobic” part? Thanks in advance – Incognito]

      • roblogic 26.1.1

        I have met the guy briefly and he oozes charisma, seems like a genuinely decent bloke. Poor judgement perhaps on my part, and definitely on his if he signed up with the Gnats

      • Incognito 26.1.2

        See my Moderation note @ 10:52 PM.

      • Dennis Frank 26.1.3

        Interesting comment, James. I'll just respond to the bits Incognito didn't. His appearances on national media have always created the impression that he's a natural kiwi communicator. Relaxed, affable, spontaneous. More likeable than Key.

        Now if he lacks charisma in person, I do agree that's a negative. Substantially. Difference between lightweight player & heavyweight. Would not be able to compete with Ardern on a comparative basis.

        Your personal view may not be shared widely, huh? If it is, we'll see evidence of the effect emerging eventually. The christian thing will be a liability for him too. But his big plus is lack of uncompromised competitors within National.

  27. David Mac 27

    Patriotism peaks in times of war.

    Fortunately we haven't had to go through that to feel the warm bonds of national unity.

    As we watch the world wrestling there is warmth in how we wrestled.

    A 3 count in the 1st round.

    I love you and us,

    David,

  28. AB 28

    National still exists – triumphalism is premature.

  29. Ken 29

    No-matter what happens in the future, we'll always have this moment.

    It's in the bank.

  30. Jackel 30

    Ardern up, Bridges burning. The hardest game to win is a won game. Now the tories know what it felt like for us under the smug rule of the smiling assassin. I still think you need at least some hair on your head to win an election, but that's a tale for another day.

  31. Ed1 31

    While pleased with the poll, I think it is a shame that it looks like we will not have the change to election rules that were recommended – a reduction in the 5% threshold makes sense (last election it would have given TOP some seats), but another issue is the coat-tailing on an electorate seat – I believe an electorate seat should not give additional MPs unless the party vote reaches the threshold

  32. David Mac 32

    I dig Jacinda and if you don't you better have a pretty good argument.

    It's a fairly high bit of high ground.

    I think the best strategy for an opposition right now is to sing her praises. To do otherwise is conducting medical experiments on Pandas.

    It seems, listening to people that know more than me, we are headed towards a pit of nasty.

    Opportunities for an opposition to suggest "How about we do it this way." will arise.

    I think a wise opposition should be saying "Fab job Jacinda."

    Yang will have windows open up.

    • roblogic 32.1

      If SiBri stays on they will turn even more feral and Trump like. Perhaps he will survive until the election, but not a day longer. It’s a toxic brew that has no place in NZ politics.

      • David Mac 32.1.1

        Ha, I'm not sure any politician is thinking Trump is a good guy to mirror right now. With the speed they are opening businesses up…that wedding in Bluff, one Airnz steward with a cough, wam bam, 60 positives, groom's Dad is dead. Same with the little bar in Matamata. One St Patricks frolicker and the whole town is half a chance.

        I think there is a good chance the global turmoil will escalate. With every degree of escalation where we're at will increase in importance for each and all of us.

        The opposition would need the Minister of Health spending every day on Level 4 shooting brown Kiwi to have a sniff of a chance right now.

        I think they need to take notes and keep their powder dry.

  33. sumsuch 33

    I dinna care for polls. Seen'm all. Prefer the strategy of truth and a little tactics at the end.

    The main thing is we have 10 years to … you know it. It is 1939 for 10 years. Covid declares that, if it declares nothing else.

  34. David Mac 34

    Flawed in so many ways. Polls are still the best way of reading our temperature.

    The crucial variables live in the questions asked.

  35. Ken 35

    I remember this far out from National's third term thinking that there was plenty of time and that polls would turn and Labour would win in the end.

    People thought Key was cool and nothing changed that.
    David Shearer, a guy who's ten times the man that Key is, never got a look in – minds were made up.

    Andrew Little was "Mr7%" no-matter how much good policy he put forward.

    Well now Si-moan is Mr4%, with no Saint Jacinda riding to the rescue anywhere on the horizon.

    These polls might mellow a bit, but they're never going to do an about-face before September

  36. Sanctuary 36

    If this result is coupled with a big stay at home National vote – if only I had a dollar for every National supporter I know who can't bring themselves to vote for Bridges but also won't vote for Labour then I'd be able to buy a lare meal at Maccas – then this really could be a disaster of Bill English proportions for National.

    It is way to soon for Luxton, the guy isn't even in parliament yet and it is an open question if he is another Key or just a gaff prone businessman with a checkered record at Air New Zealand. National's failure to update it's policy prescription since 2005 is coming back to haunt them. According to Politik these are MPs most likely to get the chop – Melissa Lee, Chris Bishop, Anne Tolley, Kanwaljit Singh Bakshi, Tim Macindoe, Brett Hudson, Jian Yang, Parmjeet Parmar, Jo Hayes, Andrew Falloon, Harete Hipango, Lawrence Yule, Maureen Pugh, Nicola Willis and Paulo Garcia. When you add to that list the deeply unpopular Paula Bennett you get a sense of staleness – stale message, stale zeitgeist, stale under-performers. And a Chinese spy, which is something that bothers a lot more Nat voters than you woyuld think – kinda one of those issues that won't get them voting Labour, but is one more reason to stay at home in September.

    https://www.politik.co.nz/2020/05/19/can-bridges-survive/

    [Link fixed]

    • RedLogix 36.1

      Good analysis, and a testament to the fact that having a lot of MP's does not necessarily translate into having a depth of ability.

      Which is going to be Labour's likely problem in six month's time. Great to have 60 odd MP's but what to do with them all?

  37. RedLogix 37

    Great. A good outcome, earned the hard way in tough times. It sets us up for a possible three term left wing govt that we are going to need in the challenging decade ahead of us.

    It does of course represent a unique opportunity for Labour to get a strong batch of fresh next generation talent into the House. Any thoughts along this line?

  38. Treetop 38

    I am over the moon with this TV 3 poll.

    Ardern is a competent PM who has a competent finance minister.

    I am not surprised with Seymour gaining another seat with this poll.

    Could someone do a senario how many seats would Seymour get if he gets 5% of the Act Party vote?

    What is behind the swing to Labour, it is more than the leader?

    The memory of the meanness from the National Government to those in reciet of a benefit just might be what is causing the swing to Labour from some National voters.

    Small business going under is not caused directly by the government and is not just a NZ problem.

    Unless National have a rescue plan for small business which is going to be a saviour taking Covid-19 into account, how National are polling will hardly change.

    The rate Labour are polling at, it could get even better.

  39. Kevin 39

    If you can stomach it:

    https://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2020/05/latest_poll-74.html

    The faithful on Kiwiblog are in disbelief. They just don't get it. The level of hostility, misogyny and delusion makes for sad reading.

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