Brian Easton on methane

Written By: - Date published: 9:14 am, July 18th, 2019 - 4 comments
Categories: climate change, Economy, Environment, farming, Politics, science - Tags: , , ,

I haven’t had too much of a chance to think through it, but Brian Easton has put up a interesting post at Pundit which looks at how we should measure and therefore constrain our methane emissions. However my initial impression is that his approach defeats the purpose of trying to reduce the effects of climate change by targeting the short term gases while learning how to deal with the long-term gases we have already emitted.

Anyway, this is Brian’s idea.

The proposed Climate Change Response (Zero Carbon) Amendment Bill treats biogenic methane emissions differently from all other carbon emissions. The latter are to be measured net so that emissions from fossil fuels can be offset by carbon stored in trees. However, methane from livestock is measured gross.

Why make the distinction? Measuring methane net both clarifies what is going on and simplifies how to deal with it. Our problem arises because we are focusing on emissions and not paying sufficient attention to the fact that global warming is the consequence of clouds of gases in the stratosphere which cause the earth’s heat to be retained rather than escaping. Emissions contribute to these clouds. But at the same time molecules in the methane cloud are breaking down.

In effect he is arguing that we should be looking first at constraining what is causing the growth in the greenhouse effect of our methane emissions rather than trying to dial back the total. 

Most sectors contributed to the rise but there have been two big ones: energy emissions from fossil fuels, especially from the transport sector, while land-use change and forestry are absorbing less carbon today than thirty years ago. The methane story – gross emissions having hardly changed in the period – has hidden the overall disastrous record of these two sectors.

The consequence of this muddled thinking is that too much of the blame for the New Zealand contribution to global warming is attributed to farmers and insufficient attention has been given to the transport sector which is the number one problem. Forty years ago, livestock was contributing to global warming but it is no longer doing so today.

At the bottom of his post, there are some document links that I’d have to have a read to decide myself one way or another. However the effect of his proposed changes to the bill would be…

As far as the farm sector is concerned, the proposed change replaces an arbitrary target with the feasible one of doing the best the sector can. While it is already in (about) balance as far livestock methane emissions are concerned, any further reduction in them eventually reduces the methane cloud, which reduces global warming. That is obviously beneficial. The proposed change to the legislation in no way inhibits that goal, but treats it in a sensible way.

My biggest disagreement is probably going to be that his proposal provides  little incentive for the farming sector to continue to try to dial back their current emissions. Even if he is accurate about the last few decades, he is wrong about the effect of reducing methane emissions contribution to near future climate change in total.

Over the last century in total the effective methane emissions expanded both by changes in land use from woodlands to farms and with the changes in farming practices that shifted to larger numbers of larger ruminants like dairy cows. In effect he is saying that we should ignore that long history.

Now that would be correct if we were talking about COwith its colossal residence time in earth’s volatiles, and most of the changes world wide need to be done on that.

However for NZ sharply reducing methane emissions back to the something  closer to what they were in my grandfathers day would have a large effect on decreasing the effect of climate change gases over this coming century. We would contribute less temperature rises, less disruptive changes in climatic patterns, less sea level rise, and more time to wean our global civilisation from converting fossil carbon into CO2. And we can do this in the short term effect over the coming century.

CO2 is the real danger, the one that causes many of the mass extinctions that show in our geological history – the kind that kill off top-tier species like ourselves.

But we can’t reduce the level of COwe have already pumped into the surface volatiles. Most of that is in the oceans and is going to keep resurfacing for centuries. There currently simply isn’t any viable technology to sequester it. 

What we can do, as well as limiting the CO2 that gets emitted in the future, is to reduce the worst short-term gases. And methane is the highest and easiest that we as a nation can do.  The same applies to everywhere that there are farms from rice paddies to feedlots.

It will provide breathing room while we figure out and implement the technologies to stop emitting CO2 and maybe sometime in the future come up with some viable ideas to sequester it. 

 

4 comments on “Brian Easton on methane ”

  1. Poission 1

    Easton is essentially reframing an ill posed problem.

    Mike Hume posed the question (2011)

    This open letter boldly states its framing narrative: “The overwhelming scientific evidence tells us that human greenhouse gas emissions are resulting in climate changes that cannot be explained by natural causes. Climate change is real, we are causing it, and it is happening right now.”

    Fact. Nothing to challenge there.

    But how about this alternative?

    “The overwhelming scientific evidence tells us that human greenhouse gas emissions, land use changes and aerosol pollution are all contributing to regional and global climate changes, which exacerbate the changes and variability in climates brought about by natural causes. Because humans are contributing to climate change, it is happening now and in the future for a much more complex set of reasons than in previous human history.”

    https://theconversation.com/youve-been-framed-six-new-ways-to-understand-climate-change-2119

    Similarly it is an ill posed problem to look at the radiative potential for a molecule,without the catalytic effects and sink capacity.of the atmosphere.

  2. Pat 2

    The problem with the flow argument is it ignores the fact that atmospheric methane has increased 2.5 times the level pre industrial revolution.

    If we are to contain climate heating then the logical end point is to return the atmosphere to as near as possible to the state it has been during recent history (human habitation)…or as IPCC states not more than 2 degrees C increase (average)….that will require a reduction in atmospheric methane regardless of its lifecycle or the protestations of vested interests

  3. peterlepaysan 3

    Actually there have been many, some small, some major since human habitation.

    The climate on this planet has never been stable.

    The current concern is about the very rapid change since industrialisation, (read coal, oil emissions.

    Reforestation is part of the solution but not pines (and I suspect Cypress.

    Pines maintain atmospheric methane by preventing methane destruction

  4. Craig Marshall 4

    Methane is a much more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide but it differs in one key way: it degrades over a few decades. In the long run, this difference may not make much difference as a matter of policy, but if what is done to limit emissions is based on the evidence, it is worth considering this difference.

    This problem is also further complicated because methane degrades (more or less) to carbon dioxide and that then persists in the atmosphere for a very long time, which is the essential problem with fossil carbon usage. Methane is released from both biological and stored forms: some anaerobic biology predominantly and from gas and oil production respectively. Other sources may include permafrost and drainage of swamps (dating back some thousands of years) and potentially from methane clathrates in some parts of the oceans which may be very sensitive to ocean warming and have the potential to be quite dangerous (and may be quite old). Also from places like Lake Nyos in the Cameroon which produces lethal conditions to the local people.

    This kind of detail might be a distraction from the need to make effective policy now, but ignoring it creates its own risks as policy should generally fit the problem and not require the problem to be reshaped to fit the preferred ideology (something that happens very often).

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

  • Mining resurgence a welcome sign
    There are heartening signs that the extractive sector is once again becoming an attractive prospect for investors and a source of economic prosperity for New Zealand, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. “The beginnings of a resurgence in extractive industries are apparent in media reports of the sector in the past ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 hours ago
  • Ō-Rākau Remembrance Bill passes first reading
    The return of the historic Ō-Rākau battle site to the descendants of those who fought there moved one step closer today with the first reading of Te Pire mō Ō-Rākau, Te Pae o Maumahara / The Ō-Rākau Remembrance Bill. The Bill will entrust the 9.7-hectare battle site, five kilometres west ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    17 hours ago
  • Government to boost public EV charging network
    Energy Minister Simeon Brown has announced 25 new high-speed EV charging hubs along key routes between major urban centres and outlined the Government’s plan to supercharge New Zealand’s EV infrastructure.  The hubs will each have several chargers and be capable of charging at least four – and up to 10 ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    17 hours ago
  • Residential Property Managers Bill to not progress
    The coalition Government will not proceed with the previous Government’s plans to regulate residential property managers, Housing Minister Chris Bishop says. “I have written to the Chairperson of the Social Services and Community Committee to inform him that the Government does not intend to support the Residential Property Managers Bill ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    17 hours ago
  • Independent review into disability support services
    The Government has announced an independent review into the disability support system funded by the Ministry of Disabled People – Whaikaha. Disability Issues Minister Louise Upston says the review will look at what can be done to strengthen the long-term sustainability of Disability Support Services to provide disabled people and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    23 hours ago
  • Justice Minister updates UN on law & order plan
    Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith has attended the Universal Periodic Review in Geneva and outlined the Government’s plan to restore law and order. “Speaking to the United Nations Human Rights Council provided us with an opportunity to present New Zealand’s human rights progress, priorities, and challenges, while responding to issues and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Ending emergency housing motels in Rotorua
    The Government and Rotorua Lakes Council are committed to working closely together to end the use of contracted emergency housing motels in Rotorua. Associate Minister of Housing (Social Housing) Tama Potaka says the Government remains committed to ending the long-term use of contracted emergency housing motels in Rotorua by the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 day ago
  • Trade Minister travels to Riyadh, OECD, and Dubai
    Trade Minister Todd McClay heads overseas today for high-level trade talks in the Gulf region, and a key OECD meeting in Paris. Mr McClay will travel to Riyadh to meet with counterparts from Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). “New Zealand’s goods and services exports to the Gulf region ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Education priorities focused on lifting achievement
    Education Minister Erica Stanford has outlined six education priorities to deliver a world-leading education system that sets Kiwi kids up for future success. “I’m putting ambition, achievement and outcomes at the heart of our education system. I want every child to be inspired and engaged in their learning so they ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • NZTA App first step towards digital driver licence
    The new NZ Transport Agency (NZTA) App is a secure ‘one stop shop’ to provide the services drivers need, Transport Minister Simeon Brown and Digitising Government Minister Judith Collins say.  “The NZTA App will enable an easier way for Kiwis to pay for Vehicle Registration and Road User Charges (RUC). ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Supporting whānau out of emergency housing
    Whānau with tamariki growing up in emergency housing motels will be prioritised for social housing starting this week, says Associate Housing Minister Tama Potaka. “Giving these whānau a better opportunity to build healthy stable lives for themselves and future generations is an essential part of the Government’s goal of reducing ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Tribute to Dave O'Sullivan
    Racing Minister Winston Peters has paid tribute to an icon of the industry with the recent passing of Dave O’Sullivan (OBE). “Our sympathies are with the O’Sullivan family with the sad news of Dave O’Sullivan’s recent passing,” Mr Peters says. “His contribution to racing, initially as a jockey and then ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Speech – Eid al-Fitr
    Assalaamu alaikum, greetings to you all. Eid Mubarak, everyone! I want to extend my warmest wishes to you and everyone celebrating this joyous occasion. It is a pleasure to be here. I have enjoyed Eid celebrations at Parliament before, but this is my first time joining you as the Minister ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Government saves access to medicines
    Associate Health Minister David Seymour has announced Pharmac’s largest ever budget of $6.294 billion over four years, fixing a $1.774 billion fiscal cliff.    “Access to medicines is a crucial part of many Kiwis’ lives. We’ve committed to a budget allocation of $1.774 billion over four years so Kiwis are ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 days ago
  • Pharmac Chair appointed
    Hon Paula Bennett has been appointed as member and chair of the Pharmac board, Associate Health Minister David Seymour announced today. "Pharmac is a critical part of New Zealand's health system and plays a significant role in ensuring that Kiwis have the best possible access to medicines,” says Mr Seymour. ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    3 days ago
  • Taking action on Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorder
    Hundreds of New Zealand families affected by Fetal Alcohol Spectrum Disorder (FASD) will benefit from a new Government focus on prevention and treatment, says Health Minister Dr Shane Reti. “We know FASD is a leading cause of preventable intellectual and neurodevelopmental disability in New Zealand,” Dr Reti says.  “Every day, ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • New sports complex opens in Kaikohe
    Regional Development Minister Shane Jones today attended the official opening of Kaikohe’s new $14.7 million sports complex. “The completion of the Kaikohe Multi Sports Complex is a fantastic achievement for the Far North,” Mr Jones says. “This facility not only fulfils a long-held dream for local athletes, but also creates ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Diplomacy needed more than ever
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters’ engagements in Türkiye this week underlined the importance of diplomacy to meet growing global challenges.    “Returning to the Gallipoli Peninsula to represent New Zealand at Anzac commemorations was a sombre reminder of the critical importance of diplomacy for de-escalating conflicts and easing tensions,” Mr Peters ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    4 days ago
  • Anzac Commemorative Address, Buttes New British Cemetery Belgium
    Ambassador Millar, Burgemeester, Vandepitte, Excellencies, military representatives, distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen – good morning and welcome to this sacred Anzac Day dawn service.  It is an honour to be here on behalf of the Government and people of New Zealand at Buttes New British Cemetery, Polygon Wood – a deeply ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    5 days ago
  • Anzac Commemorative Address – NZ National Service, Chunuk Bair
    Distinguished guests -   It is an honour to return once again to this site which, as the resting place for so many of our war-dead, has become a sacred place for generations of New Zealanders.   Our presence here and at the other special spaces of Gallipoli is made ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • Anzac Commemorative Address – Dawn Service, Gallipoli, Türkiye
    Mai ia tawhiti pamamao, te moana nui a Kiwa, kua tae whakaiti mai matou, ki to koutou papa whenua. No koutou te tapuwae, no matou te tapuwae, kua honoa pumautia.   Ko nga toa kua hinga nei, o te Waipounamu, o te Ika a Maui, he okioki tahi me o ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    6 days ago
  • PM announces changes to portfolios
    Paul Goldsmith will take on responsibility for the Media and Communications portfolio, while Louise Upston will pick up the Disability Issues portfolio, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon announced today. “Our Government is relentlessly focused on getting New Zealand back on track. As issues change in prominence, I plan to adjust Ministerial ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    7 days ago
  • New catch limits for unique fishery areas
    Recreational catch limits will be reduced in areas of Fiordland and the Chatham Islands to help keep those fisheries healthy and sustainable, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. The lower recreational daily catch limits for a range of finfish and shellfish species caught in the Fiordland Marine Area and ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Minister welcomes hydrogen milestone
    Energy Minister Simeon Brown has welcomed an important milestone in New Zealand’s hydrogen future, with the opening of the country’s first network of hydrogen refuelling stations in Wiri. “I want to congratulate the team at Hiringa Energy and its partners K one W one (K1W1), Mitsui & Co New Zealand ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Urgent changes to system through first RMA Amendment Bill
    The coalition Government is delivering on its commitment to improve resource management laws and give greater certainty to consent applicants, with a Bill to amend the Resource Management Act (RMA) expected to be introduced to Parliament next month. RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop has today outlined the first RMA Amendment ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Overseas decommissioning models considered
    Overseas models for regulating the oil and gas sector, including their decommissioning regimes, are being carefully scrutinised as a potential template for New Zealand’s own sector, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. The Coalition Government is focused on rebuilding investor confidence in New Zealand’s energy sector as it looks to strengthen ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Release of North Island Severe Weather Event Inquiry
    Emergency Management and Recovery Minister Mark Mitchell has today released the Report of the Government Inquiry into the response to the North Island Severe Weather Events. “The report shows that New Zealand’s emergency management system is not fit-for-purpose and there are some significant gaps we need to address,” Mr Mitchell ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Justice Minister to attend Human Rights Council
    Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith is today travelling to Europe where he’ll update the United Nations Human Rights Council on the Government’s work to restore law and order.  “Attending the Universal Periodic Review in Geneva provides us with an opportunity to present New Zealand’s human rights progress, priorities, and challenges, while ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Patterson reopens world’s largest wool scouring facility
    Associate Agriculture Minister, Mark Patterson, formally reopened the world’s largest wool processing facility today in Awatoto, Napier, following a $50 million rebuild and refurbishment project. “The reopening of this facility will significantly lift the economic opportunities available to New Zealand’s wool sector, which already accounts for 20 per cent of ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Speech to the Southland Otago Regional Engineering Collective Summit, 18 April 2024
    Hon Andrew Bayly, Minister for Small Business and Manufacturing  At the Southland Otago Regional Engineering Collective (SOREC) Summit, 18 April, Dunedin    Ngā mihi nui, Ko Andrew Bayly aho, Ko Whanganui aho    Good Afternoon and thank you for inviting me to open your summit today.    I am delighted ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Government to introduce revised Three Strikes law
    The Government is delivering on its commitment to bring back the Three Strikes legislation, Associate Justice Minister Nicole McKee announced today. “Our Government is committed to restoring law and order and enforcing appropriate consequences on criminals. We are making it clear that repeat serious violent or sexual offending is not ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • New diplomatic appointments
    Foreign Minister Winston Peters has today announced four new diplomatic appointments for New Zealand’s overseas missions.   “Our diplomats have a vital role in maintaining and protecting New Zealand’s interests around the world,” Mr Peters says.    “I am pleased to announce the appointment of these senior diplomats from the ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Humanitarian support for Ethiopia and Somalia
    New Zealand is contributing NZ$7 million to support communities affected by severe food insecurity and other urgent humanitarian needs in Ethiopia and Somalia, Foreign Minister Rt Hon Winston Peters announced today.   “Over 21 million people are in need of humanitarian assistance across Ethiopia, with a further 6.9 million people ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Arts Minister congratulates Mataaho Collective
    Minister for Arts, Culture and Heritage Paul Goldsmith is congratulating Mataaho Collective for winning the Golden Lion for best participant in the main exhibition at the Venice Biennale. "Congratulations to the Mataaho Collective for winning one of the world's most prestigious art prizes at the Venice Biennale.  “It is good ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Supporting better financial outcomes for Kiwis
    The Government is reforming financial services to improve access to home loans and other lending, and strengthen customer protections, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly and Housing Minister Chris Bishop announced today. “Our coalition Government is committed to rebuilding the economy and making life simpler by cutting red tape. We are ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • Trade relationship with China remains strong
    “China remains a strong commercial opportunity for Kiwi exporters as Chinese businesses and consumers continue to value our high-quality safe produce,” Trade and Agriculture Minister Todd McClay says.   Mr McClay has returned to New Zealand following visits to Beijing, Harbin and Shanghai where he met ministers, governors and mayors and engaged in trade and agricultural events with the New ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    1 week ago
  • PM’s South East Asia mission does the business
    Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has completed a successful trip to Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines, deepening relationships and capitalising on opportunities. Mr Luxon was accompanied by a business delegation and says the choice of countries represents the priority the New Zealand Government places on South East Asia, and our relationships in ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • $41m to support clean energy in South East Asia
    New Zealand is demonstrating its commitment to reducing global greenhouse emissions, and supporting clean energy transition in South East Asia, through a contribution of NZ$41 million (US$25 million) in climate finance to the Asian Development Bank (ADB)-led Energy Transition Mechanism (ETM). Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Climate Change Minister Simon Watts announced ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Minister releases Fast-track stakeholder list
    The Government is today releasing a list of organisations who received letters about the Fast-track applications process, says RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop. “Recently Ministers and agencies have received a series of OIA requests for a list of organisations to whom I wrote with information on applying to have a ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago
  • Judicial appointments announced
    Attorney-General Judith Collins today announced the appointment of Wellington Barrister David Jonathan Boldt as a Judge of the High Court, and the Honourable Justice Matthew Palmer as a Judge of the Court of Appeal. Justice Boldt graduated with an LLB from Victoria University of Wellington in 1990, and also holds ...
    BeehiveBy beehive.govt.nz
    2 weeks ago

Page generated in The Standard by Wordpress at 2024-04-30T21:52:11+00:00