Daily review 25/09/2023

35 comments on “Daily review 25/09/2023 ”

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1. observer 1

   25 September 2023 at 5:41 pm

   TV3 poll out at 6 pm.

   I have no inside info, but just for fun here's a prediction – it will show NZF above 5%. Hence Luxon's statement today.

   A guess, nothing more.
   • Tony Veitch 1.1

     25 September 2023 at 5:53 pm

     It might also show Act hovering around 9% – doubly stressing the soap salesman!

     Just guessing!
     • Dennis Frank 1.1.1

       25 September 2023 at 6:10 pm

       You both guessed right. I was surprised to see the Greens up at 14%! And this, maybe not as much of a surprise:

       “For the first time in six years, Labour’s leader is no longer the most popular. The poll results show National’s Christopher Luxon is on 24 percent, up 1.5, while Labour’s Chris Hipkins has tumbled down 3.4 points to 19.1 percent. Luxon now has five points on Hipkins.”
       https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2023/09/newshub-reid-research-poll-christopher-luxon-zooms-past-chris-hipkins-in-preferred-prime-minister-rankings.html
       • bwaghorn 1.1.1.1

         25 September 2023 at 6:14 pm

         Go the greens, they could almost be the 2nd biggest party soon,(hope the list is long and solid)

         I'd be thinking seriously about bottom lines ,for cs with the devil,

         Big difference between a 9% greens power and a 20% green party
         • Dennis Frank 1.1.1.1.1

           25 September 2023 at 6:27 pm

           Celia Wade-Brown QSO will be in, looks like. Will add experience & maturity to the team.
       • observer 1.1.1.2

         25 September 2023 at 6:16 pm

         The Greens 14% should be a major headline, but of course will be widely ignored while focusing on a party which has only one third of that support. Shame.

         The follow-up numbers deserve attention too. Huge majority of voters say Nat-NZF-ACT will be "chaotic" (admittedly a loaded poll question, but still).
         • Dennis Frank 1.1.1.2.1

           25 September 2023 at 6:23 pm

           Tell you what, imagine if NZF trend towards parity with ACT! Luxon will have to demand that rightists behave themselves…
           • SPC 1.1.1.2.1.1

             25 September 2023 at 6:33 pm

             Sure given the NZF upside on the day and ACT's continuing implosion they look to converge around 7%.
             • Dennis Frank …

               25 September 2023 at 6:52 pm

               Yeah, but RR don't tell us the size of the undecided. That's a measure of volatility in the electorate that ought to be specified.

               http://www.reidresearch.co.nz/TV3+POLL+RESULTS.html

               Those uncertain folk may not vote but they're not the only group to watch from here on in. Rightists shifting tactically are the other group…
       • Kat 1.1.1.3

         25 September 2023 at 7:56 pm

         Could be a cunning plan to force someones hand……if all these polls are in anyway accurate why bother with the time and expense of an election…….just asking for a friend…..
       • Kat 1.1.1.4

         25 September 2023 at 8:04 pm

         Friend wants to know if anyone on TS prepared to agree that National will be lucky to get above 35% in election. Friend also says Act will be lucky to reach 7%.

         Just saying……..for friend
         • Tony Veitch 1.1.1.4.1

           25 September 2023 at 9:43 pm

           Kat, this friend suggested a few weeks ago on TS that Act had peaked at 9%. NZ just doesn't have the collective stomach for the loonies in Act.

           And judging from tonight's Young Voters' Debate, the NZ First bloke in a conspiracy nutter (referencing global elites – WEF and UN). If he reflects the views of NZF, then they'll be lucky to hit 5%.

           It takes a while for the collective consciousness to shift, but the Natz have shown quite clearly they are not ready to take the role of government. I expect them to get a maximum of 35%.

           It really is just a question then of where those loose votes go. And I think a fair proportion of the youth vote will go to the Greens and TPM.

           It sure ain't over until the *** lady sings, as the saying goes!
           • Kat 1.1.1.4.1.1

             25 September 2023 at 10:00 pm

             Friend says you are onto it Tony………….especially with the potential younger voter turnout.
             • Patricia Bremner …

               26 September 2023 at 1:09 am

               I am praying your friend is correct.Kat.
2. Dennis Frank 2

   25 September 2023 at 6:19 pm

   Breathless Newshub reporter:

   Both Labour and National have taken a dive https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2023/09/newshub-reid-research-poll-nz-first-in-powerful-position-as-act-support-crumbles-labour-s-catastrophe-continues.html

   Actually, Labour dropped 0.3% – about a tenth the size of the margin of error.

   Statistically, that's no change. So stats are voodoo to journos…
   • Dennis Frank 2.1

     25 September 2023 at 7:08 pm

     Actually that was written by their political editor! Her boss ought to suggest a cuppa T & lie down lest she get over-wrought. Such excitement could trigger a slide toward delusionality, mental health issues…
   • Belladonna 2.2

     25 September 2023 at 8:02 pm

     Looks as though all of the changes to the 4 main parties are inside the margin of error.
     So effectively no change.

     The kicker is the NZF vote over the threshold – which reflects the other recent polls.
3. SPC 3

   25 September 2023 at 6:38 pm

   The coalition of chaos

   ACT have never been in a coalition government.

   NZF have never lasted three years in a partnership with National.

   National's only past coalition government, one with NZF failed.

   National government 2008-2017 ruled as a minority government with support agreements with United, ACT and MP – it played them off against each other to have the major say.

   This ACT party has talked about denying supply if it does not get what it wants and NZF has prided itself on keeping parties on the right ACT, or left Green, out of government.
4. SPC 4

   25 September 2023 at 6:44 pm

   This can be won.

   Labour back to and then above 30% and National to and then below 35%.

   With Greens on 14% and TPM 3% and National 34% ACT and NZF 6.5%.

   Then it goes to the wire.
   • Cricklewood 4.1

     25 September 2023 at 8:11 pm

     Admire the optimism but Hipkins has really shit the bed with his policy bonfire and ruling out of meaningful changes to tax policy. What was a carefully stage mangaged rise to leader has been a fucking disaster and he seems to have alienated some of Labours best Ministers David Parker as case in point.
     • SPC 4.1.1

       25 September 2023 at 9:04 pm

       He still has options there, should they get another term.

       But yeah it should have been more than not just going back to their NACT of by and for the gated community – with a token $25 a week tax cut for the common folk.

       If they want to really be in it for the many (he has to stop being in it to protect the wealthy few).

       1.adopt a Green Party policy – cap rent increases to 3% pa.

       2.a 5% stamp duty on houses over $2M – to match National's IETC adjustment value $520 pa/$10 a week – this is required to maintain the original value and purpose of the IETC.

       Note again and again that the value of this, and the MW increases ($1 an hour is $40 each year) and FPA industry award increases come to much more than than $25 per worker (total for 3 years0 for that National is offering.

       3.apply a 33% tax on banks and supermarkets and other large corporates with high taxable profits. A more progressive company tax regime. Basically taxing monopoly profits. This to enable the development of plans to assist growth of smaller to medium size companies to maintain market competition or to assist businesses with recovery after such as weather events (and other/finance some existing programmes).

       4.plan to bring in an estate tax – those over $2m.
5. Ad 5

   25 September 2023 at 7:15 pm

   Good to see the US Writers Guild get closer to a settlement.

   Next stop: UAW.
6. SPC 6

   25 September 2023 at 7:17 pm

   Coalition talks

   Seymour – Super goes up by inflation

   Peters – No, coalition deal breaker

   Seymour – No money into the Cullen Fund

   Peters – No, coalition deal breaker

   Seymour – no increases in MW for 3 years

   Peters – No, coalition deal breaker.

   Seymour – open borders migration

   Peters – No, coalition deal breaker

   Seymour, if you give me nothing, I'll veto everything of yours

   Peters – you can pick anything you want out of our policy.
   • Dennis Frank 6.1

     25 September 2023 at 7:29 pm

     Bomber:

     Now Luxon has ruled Winston in, how on earth is he going to lift the Foreign Buyers Ban that he needs to balance his bullshit budget!

     NZ First are utterly against lifting the Foreign Buyers Ban and National need to lift it to pretend they have all this revenue for their bullshit tax cuts for rich Landlords!

     https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2023/09/25/tv-3-poll-national-act-nzf-alliance-of-arseholes

     Farrar's still trying to figure out which stance to adopt…
     • observer 6.1.1

       25 September 2023 at 8:03 pm

       Luxon could stare down either NZF or ACT, show them who's in charge, but his whole political persona says he won't.

       He should say "David, you owe your existence to National, 15 years on Epsom life support, we owe you nothing so take what crumbs we give you or vote us down if you dare, which you will not".

       He should say "Winston, you can go and talk to Hipkins if you want, take what crumbs we give you or vote us down if you dare, which you will not."

       He is a very weak leader, all bluster and empty words, and if anyone hasn't worked that out yet then they have a nasty shock coming.
       • aj 6.1.1.1

         25 September 2023 at 9:50 pm

         He is a very weak leader, all bluster and empty words

         Yes, which makes one wonder who will be the power behind him…
   • Belladonna 6.2

     25 September 2023 at 7:55 pm

     What on earth in Seymour's record to date makes you think that he would sign up to this extortion by a party with half his vote?
     • SPC 6.2.1

       25 September 2023 at 7:59 pm

       Half? ACT is at 8.8 and falling, NZF is at 5.2 and rising. NZF has a history of out performing polls.

       It was Seymour who indicated confidence only and no supply, unless it got policy wins. This is a consequence of that hubris, where it ends no one yet knows.
       • Belladonna 6.2.1.1

         25 September 2023 at 8:13 pm

         Hadn't seen the recent poll at the point I commented.

         However, ACT still out-polling NZF.

         You haven't answered my question….. what about Seymour makes you think that he'd sign up to NZF policies?
         • observer 6.2.1.1.1

           25 September 2023 at 8:18 pm

           But I have answered it. Because it's obvious.
         • SPC 6.2.1.1.2

           25 September 2023 at 8:21 pm

           Perhaps you you should comprehend what was written in my post, Peters has built his career around some core principles – and thus there is no way Seymour will those ACT policies adopted by a National led government receiving confidence and supply from NZF.
           • Belladonna 6.2.1.1.2.1

             25 September 2023 at 8:31 pm

             Perhaps you might like to edit your sentence – it's incomprehensible.

             " and thus there is no way Seymour will those ACT policies adopted by a National led government receiving confidence and supply from NZF."
             • SPC …

               25 September 2023 at 9:21 pm

               Yeah this would have been hard.

               Perhaps you you should comprehend what was written in my post, Peters has built his career around some core principles; and thus there is no way Seymour will with those ACT policies adopted by a National led government receiving would receive confidence and supply from NZF.

               Better as this anyhow

               Peters has built his career around some core principles; and he would not provide confidence and supply to any in breach of them. And National would be informed of this when negotiating with Seymour.

               This leaves Seymour claiming coalition policy wins in areas where NZF allows them to. And NZF claiming it protected those on super, increased the incomes of workers and limited migration …
     • observer 6.2.2

       25 September 2023 at 8:07 pm

       He has no record. Never been tested, never been in negotiations.

       Epsom would never forgive him if he brought National down. So ACT's support on conf & supp is guaranteed.

       Luxon's weakness makes Seymour appear strong, but his negotiating position is not. Only one possible outcome.
7. Peter 7

   25 September 2023 at 9:43 pm

   The Act Party wants a referendum on the Treaty.

   Apparently the population was just over 100,000 at the beginning of 1840. The settler population was 2000.

   Act will have many supporters with an aim of killing off all things Māori. Couldn't do it in the 1800s so they want another go.

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