Democratic Party Encounters Cliff. Jumps.

45 comments on “Democratic Party Encounters Cliff. Jumps. ”

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1. Drowsy M. Kram 1

   4 March 2020 at 12:37 pm

   Fingers crossed that Bernie does well – both Bernie and Biden will struggle to unseat Trump; oh for a contender with Bernie's brains and Biden's heartbeat.

   "Party Encounters Cliff."

   https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/general_election/
   • Phil 1.1

     4 March 2020 at 5:49 pm

     Headline results from the Lone Star state polls are fascinating:

     Biden & Bernie, in Texas a Trump Toss-up.
   • Paddington 1.2

     4 March 2020 at 7:56 pm

     Sanders is unelectable, just as Corbyn was. That some Dem's see Biden as the antedote to Sanders just shows what a mess the Dem's are in. My pick, FWIW, the orange man wins no matter who the Dem's put up from the bunch currently in play.
2. North 2

   4 March 2020 at 12:38 pm

   Your analysis rings disturbingly true Bill.
3. Phil 3

   4 March 2020 at 12:42 pm

   Ah, yes. How dare a political party hold an election for its leader, when there is even a possibility that they might elect a moderate candidate who holds positions that look more like the median party-voter.
   • adam 3.1

     4 March 2020 at 1:51 pm

     WOW that is the worst straw man I've ever seen on this site. So in reality you got nothing, except cheap hustling for your corporate lords and masters.

     How about you engaging with what was written rather than just make shit up.
     • Phil 3.1.1

       4 March 2020 at 4:47 pm

       My comment was significantly more factual than Bills 'shat the bed and cried about it' post, or your bleating.
       • adam 3.1.1.1

         4 March 2020 at 7:08 pm

         Oh look, all you got is the usual from a corporate shill.

         You could get your head out of your ass and at least pretend to be left wing on a left wing site. I know "It's hard" – so here is an open invitation to actually act like a social democrat. Which is the least you can be, and call yourself left wing, the very very least.

         Because the devotees of left liberalism are in essence just right wingers who other right wingers hate. The left need to express their loathing of them just as much.
4. Stunned Mullet 4

   4 March 2020 at 12:43 pm

   Pretty much irrelevant who gets the Dem. nomination I think you can lock Trump in for the win regardless.

   Although what do I know – I thought there was no chance of him winning the last election.
5. Adrian Thornton 5

   4 March 2020 at 12:44 pm

   Sadly you are exactly right here Bill, as I have mentioned here many times, these liberal fundamentalists are a far greater enemy of any real progressive movement than the Right….they are a deadly cancer to the Left and like the cancer they are, they are quite willing to kill their host in their fight for survival.

   As Corbyn and now Sanders have exposed, you can' negotiate with extremists…which is what they are.

   Turn Labour Left!
   • Gosman 5.1

     4 March 2020 at 12:49 pm

     And that is why parties on the right tend to be more successful at gaining power than parties on the left. The left has a habit of destroying itself internally.
     • Craig H 5.1.1

       4 March 2020 at 4:47 pm

       That's not unknown on the right either, but I agree that it's a much bigger issue for the left. A victory is more useful than a gloriously pure defeat.
6. Gosman 6

   4 March 2020 at 12:46 pm

   I can't understand why left wingers think Sanders will be able to defeat Trump. Trump will paint him as the worst kind of left winger. He'll be tarred with being a supporter of oppressive socialist regimes all over the World. He'll be painted as anti-military (and therefore anti-Patriot). He will energise the Conservative base and put off moderate Democrats. His only chance of victory is if the US economy implodes between now and the election. That is a possibility but it is a very, very long shot.
   • roblogic 6.1

     4 March 2020 at 10:05 pm

     Because he consistently beats Trump in the polls. And he's not a drooling moron
     • SHG 6.1.1

       5 March 2020 at 12:46 am

       Sanders is radioactive in Florida and can't win there, which means he'd have to carry both Ohio and Michigan against Trump.
7. joe90 7

   4 March 2020 at 12:50 pm

   So, Bernie goes from supposed frontrunner with moderates splitting their votes among themselves to being the guy splitting votes with Warren, while the party consolidates behind Biden.

   Who woulda thunk it.

   /
8. Andre 8

   4 March 2020 at 1:07 pm

   Kevin Drum of Motherjones is much more skilled with words than I am. He expresses my view more precisely and concisely than I ever could:

   A quick question: Why do people keep saying that the “Democratic establishment” has chosen Joe Biden to be the party’s nominee? As near as I can tell, the Democratic establishment did diddly squat until the mostly black citizens of South Carolina overwhelmingly chose Joe Biden. The establishment then followed their lead. Feel free to call this either weak-minded or respectful of the Democratic base, whichever floats your boat. But one thing it wasn’t was the Democratic establishment choosing anything.

   It’s true, of course, that the Democratic establishment didn’t support Bernie Sanders and was just waiting for a cue to decide who they’d support instead. Once again, feel free to label them a bunch of cowardly, centrist corporatists for this if you wish. But given Bernie’s obvious disdain for the party leadership and everything it stands for, this was hardly a big surprise, is it?

   Also, let's remind ourselves of who the "Democratic establishment" really are. They're mostly the ordinary people that have survived the gruelling process of putting themselves forward for political office and learned what works for winning office in a wide variety of diverse electorates. As such, they have developed actual expertise and judgement. They want to win elections, and their views of the best candidates to do that deserve at least some consideration and respect.

   They are not some secret society of lizard-people plotting behind closed doors to come up with nefarious schemes to make life worse for most people. The Repugs have that political niche sewn up.
   • Adrian Thornton 8.1

     4 March 2020 at 3:12 pm

     OK I will then..they are "cowardly, centrist corporatists" at least he acknowledges that obvious truth…
   • Siobhan 8.2

     4 March 2020 at 3:24 pm

     Seeing as South Carolina has voted for a Republican in every presidential election from 1964 to 2016, with the exception of 1976 with Jimmy Carter, why on earth would the Democratic Party take that particular States primaries vote as the Gold Standard of whom to rally behind?
     • Andre 8.2.1

       4 March 2020 at 3:38 pm

       Well, South Carolina's Democratic primary voter base has a roughly similar demographic composition to the national Dem primary voter base as a whole.

       Prior to the SC primary there were questions about Biden's popularity across the base, and there was a distinct possibility that someone else would be more appealing to the diversity of the whole party.

       The SC primary solidly confirmed Biden's popularity across the wide range of demographics in the Dem electorate, and that none of the others comes close. That removed the doubts about Biden, and gave the impetus to coalesce around him.
       • Siobhan 8.2.1.1

         4 March 2020 at 4:01 pm

         "South Carolina's Democratic primary voter base has a roughly similar demographic composition to the national Dem primary voter base as a whole"

         No, but similar to some of the other Southern States.

         "Historically, at least four Southern states — Alabama, Louisiana, Georgia, and Mississippi — have voted for the same Democratic nominee as South Carolina, giving this candidate a windfall of delegates. Democratic strategist Antjuan Seawright attributes this trend to the fact that many of these states have similar demographics as South Carolina’s electorate, which in addition to being majority African American is also majority women.

         “Right after South Carolina, a lot of Southern states with similar demographics hold contests,” says Gibbs Knotts, a College of Charleston political science professor and author of First in the South, a book dedicated to examining the role of the state’s primary."
     • Phil 8.2.2

       4 March 2020 at 4:24 pm

       Obama won the nomination in 2008 with a strategy that included racking up huge margins in southern states with large african-american populations. 8 years later Clinton defeated Sanders with a similar coalition.

       Black voters make up a huge swathe of the democratic primary electorate. Why would you not want their voice to count?
9. adam 9

   4 March 2020 at 1:59 pm

   Well done bill!

   I see all the usual corporate lap dogs are upset by your post.

   Gossy gets a pass, as he at least admits he loves corporate control of society.
10. Wayne 10

    4 March 2020 at 3:30 pm

    Bill,

    How did your support for Corbyn go with general election voters?

    If Sanders is the Dem candidate he will be slaughtered by Trump. Every dumb thing he has said about how good Russia, Cuba, etc are, will be bought to the fore by Trump. Voters in the US will then think that Sanders is not their guy. In the US being a socialist is seen as much more objectionable than being a philanderer. After all they have had plenty of these in the White House. Kennedy, Clinton and Trump being the more obvious examples.
    • McFlock 10.1

      4 March 2020 at 4:09 pm

      Every dumb thing he has said about how good Russia, Cuba, etc are, will be bought to the fore by Trump.

      If the orange one were a normal person, you'd be correct.

      I just think 45 vs Sanders will be two guys yelling at each other. Sanders will probably win. My doubt about Sanders is whether he'd manage to do anything legislative if he gets elected.

      Warren will destroy 45 in a debate. HRC was a conventional politician like Biden, and conventional politicians can't deal with the cheeto-in-chief. I reckon Warren will treat 45 like the little boy he is and absolutely nuke him. And then she has the desire and the ability to work with others that a change-level president needs to embody.
      • Andre 10.1.1

        4 March 2020 at 4:17 pm

        Well, yeah. That's why I voted Warren. But based on today's results, her chances of becoming the nominee have just dropped to precisely zero. Treasury Secretary would be a good use of her talents, tho.
        • McFlock 10.1.1.1

          4 March 2020 at 4:22 pm

          Well, it ain't looking good for her, but it's still way early to be calling winners.

          But whoever faces 45 should get some mothers of toddlers as debate coaches. Just three days on "no, poop in the toilet, dear" and "you know that's not true, how did the vase really fall off the table?" and "put that down, that's yuck" and "no Donny, share, be nice to people".
          • Andre 10.1.1.1.1

            4 March 2020 at 5:18 pm

            It may still be too early to call winners. But Warren's only plausible path to the nomination now requires other people to suffer severe medical events. Although those other people are indeed in demographics where severe medical events are uncomfortably likely, particularly given one of them is reasonably likely to become POTUS, that's just not a plausible path to the nomination.
      • Phil 10.1.2

        4 March 2020 at 5:42 pm

        Warren will destroy 45 in a debate. HRC was a conventional politician like Biden, and conventional politicians can't deal with the cheeto-in-chief.

        Clinton *did destroy* Trump in the debates. But because she's a woman every forceful point she made was seen as being shrill or angry. Warren would face the same prejudice.
        • McFlock 10.1.2.1

          4 March 2020 at 8:25 pm

          Nah, she debated him. As if he were an adult. Sure, she won the debate, but that wasn't the game he was playing. He was working charisma/emotion, she was working credibility/merit.

          If she'd called out his infantile behaviour, his literal standover tactics, like a matriarch then he'd have had better chance of his image being damaged.
11. Bazza64 11

    4 March 2020 at 4:53 pm

    Bill

    you are right about this one. Don’t know how Biden can stay in the race with all his gaffes, he is all over the place & it’s not just tiredness. I have seen some of his verbal gaffes on Twitter & although they are funny they are also sad as I think he is well past it. But while Bernie could debate better than Biden I believe he is too far left to be elected as US president
    • Wayne 11.1

      5 March 2020 at 7:49 am

      Bill And Bazza,

      Biden is winning because voters are voting for him. Presumably they prefer him to Sanders. Their democratic choice. Maybe they just prefer his folkiness to Sanders anger. As well as his record of achievement.

      As Andre pointed out, it wasn't the evil (Buttigeig, Klobucher, et al) elites who saved Biden, it was the voters of South Carolina. They came out for Biden even though just about everyone else had written him off. There must be some aspect to Biden's character that generates trust among voters in the south even when the chips are down.

      Only when he had the huge win in South Carolina (60% of all votes compared to Sanders at 20%) did the centre establishment swing behind Biden. Presumably Buttigeig has his eye on the Secretary of State role, and Klobucher would be a good fit as VP.
      • aj 11.1.1

        5 March 2020 at 8:08 am

        Maybe they just prefer his folkiness to Sanders anger passion

        FIFY
      • KJT 11.1.2

        7 March 2020 at 10:47 am

        Unrelenting millionaire funded anti Sanders propaganda, has nothing to do with anything, of course.
12. pat 12

    4 March 2020 at 8:03 pm

    its no great stretch to have (another) alzheimer's sufferer in the Whitehouse when you consider all of Trumps afflictions
    • Anne 12.1

      4 March 2020 at 8:35 pm

      4 March 2020 at 8:34 pm

      A country whose leader is democratically elected is considered to be a representative of the majority of its people. Therefore it should come as no surprise that most American presidents are morons, nutbars or psychopaths – or all of them rolled into one.

      The only recent one who doesn't fit this bill was Obama but he wasn't American according to the morons, he was from Kenya. 😉
      • pat 12.1.1

        4 March 2020 at 8:50 pm

        Biden is the candidate you select when you have given up on democracy.
      • Muttonbird 12.1.2

        4 March 2020 at 9:28 pm

        The lot of them are troppo. Look at how they treat each other in the course of daily life. Supposed friends at that. Conflict and rancour is their daily bread. They shout and demean – it’s normal.

        The median American is a nasty idiot. It’s a civilisation in decline.

        The awful bit is we here have been importing this shit for years now. The ugliest phase so far has been the tenure of John Key.

        Expect more of that unless we become wise to it.
        • In Vino 12.1.2.1

          4 March 2020 at 9:53 pm

          Reminds me of Bernard Shaw's great quote – "America is the only country to have passed directly from barbarism to decadence without passing through the intermediate phase of civilisation." (Man and Superman, the Revolutionary's Handbook.)
        • Wayne 12.1.2.2

          5 March 2020 at 7:51 am

          It is Sanders who shouts and rants. Biden seem to go for folksiness and good humour. A lot of voters seem to like that.
13. Alec Larsen 13

    4 March 2020 at 9:11 pm

    warren withdraws throws her support to sanders he dies of a heart attack as president and warren becomes first woman president
14. georgecom 14

    4 March 2020 at 9:38 pm

    if American people really do want to "drain the swamp" then Sanders is their best chance by far. Not guaranteed but their best opportunity. To paint things in simple terms, whilst acknowledging some subtleties may be lost

    Biden, he stands for/typifies the pre Trump status quo. The 'establishment'.

    Sanders is about draining the swamp and changing the establishment. When he says to people "it isn't working for you or for us" he points to the economic and social settings that need to change. Real change.

    Trump talks about 'draining the swamp' and how the establishment isn't working for people and then points to "those people over there" and "those unnamed forces" as the reason. Leave the economic and social settings as they are however, and Trump can continue pocketing tens or hundreds of millions of dollars a year, and seeking where ever possible to minimise paying his fair share of tax.

    Sanders. No, not perfect. An old white male indeed, like the other 2. But if America wants change, real change, and to drain the swamp, Sanders is their best opportunity.
15. roblogic 15

    4 March 2020 at 10:11 pm

    Widespread, systematic and purposeful voter suppression

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/02/texas-polling-sites-closures-voting

    Also:
    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2019/09/12/report-court-ruling-caused-mass-voting-place-closures-southern-u-s/2272866001/

    (via)
    • Tiger Mountain 15.1

      5 March 2020 at 8:19 am

      How do many, bar the truly committed, eventually manage and almost as relevantly–bother–to vote in US elections? Around 100 million eligible, do not vote. Trump like most recent Presidents got in via a bent Electoral College, FPP, heavily gerrymandered, cash flow based system. With roughly 50% eligible voter participation in a good year.

      What a degenerate society the USA has become.
16. Billy 16

    5 March 2020 at 2:05 pm

    Hillary will be VP, Biden will be decades incompetent and step down over health issues, and the world will finally get the Queen it deserves.

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