Down to the wire
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8:06 am, October 12th, 2023 - 52 comments
Categories: act, activism, election 2023, greens, labour, maori party, national, national/act government, nz first, polls, same old national -
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Two new polls were released last night and they both confirm a tightening of the race with the right slumping and the left improving.
From Radio New Zealand:
The latest opinion polls show the political left is making gains in the final stretch of the election campaign.
Both the 1News and Newshub polls show rising support for the Labour and the Greens.
On the right, National is up slightly in 1News poll with ACT numbers falling, while the Newshub poll shows a sharp drop for National, with ACT steady.
Neither the left nor right has enough support to form a majority without New Zealand First, which in both polls is above the 5 percent threshold needed to enter Parliament.
No recent poll has National and Act in a position to form a government. The Guardian and Newshub polls both showed Labour-Greens-Te Pati Maori ahead of National-Act.
There is clearly a surge on. If progressive activists can get turnout up this could go right down to the wire.
And as a reminder in 2005 the final Colmar Brunton poll had National 5 points ahead of where it ended up and Labour 3 points behind. And the last Fairfax Media poll had National 4 points ahead and Labour 4 points behind of where they ended up. That sized change could see Labour returned to power.
Do your country a favour. Triple your vote by getting two friends or whanau members to vote. And volunteer to help with the turn out the vote effort. Every vote will count.
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Voted …Left : )
https://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-12-10-2023/#comment-1972128
Oldest Son's friends…..seemingly Left : ) (also they dont like any of NAct or where they would take NZ ..)
IMO there is a very Large Left….(Green ?) among young Voters.
Im Positively Left about it : )
The last few elections have shown that the Greens do well on special votes and often get an extra list seat added. They also do well on overseas votes which of course are all special votes. With an estimated 80,000 or more overseas registered voters that could serve the Greens well.
Yes. But because of the support profile amoung younger voters – who are less likely to vote- they dont quite reach their poll numbers. That said the polls still have them above or around previous elections.
The thing to remember is the % shortcut calculator provided by Vote NZ isnt used for the final allocation under the Sainte-Lague system. Its the actual votes which determine the last few list Mps. Its contrary to many belief that List Mps dont get actual votes allocated .
According to what I read (sorry about no link, I've forgotten where I saw it. RNZ or The Herald?), Luxon is seen as accountable for fomenting the surge in NZF popularity by validating the party as a coalition partner.
Since then, his and others' efforts to stem the bleeding have just made things worse.
I just wonder how popular Luxon will be inside the ranks of NACT, however the result, and how long before his use-by date comes up, post-election.
If I was Nicola Willis, I'd be doing lunches with those who matter, about now…
They wont touch him . Its Willis – Bishop and others who put him there, same as they put Muller in.
Willis is a former party cadre, straight out of university – journalism school into the party apparatus. So she doesnt have the self made business/professional profile to be the 'one'
I believe willis got fairly high up in fonterra? Not that u want to defend her.
Fonterra ?. She went to work for Todd Muller as one of his government lobbyists when he was head honcho for Corporate affairs . Then from that she moved sideways into their PR- Science operation for dairying pollution of waterways . The week John Key resigned as PM- she had worked for him as a senior spindoctor- she quit Fonterra to come back to Wellington to get on the party list
Bishop had a similar 'short sabbatical' from the National Party/Parliament backrooms but he went to government lobbying for a tobacco company
I don't think there is any scenario in any of the recent polls where Labour/Greens/TPM have enough support to get across the line without NZ First.
So, there will need to be a huge surge of left leaning voters in the last few days. I think turn-out is the biggest issue for the left. If people don't think their team is going to win, they are less motivated to get out and vote, I think.
I think that was what happened with National last time around. I remember they were polling quite a bit higher than what actually happened on the day.
Weather looks ok in Auckland, fine in the morning and a lot warmer than today with North Easterlies. A good omen for the socially conscious left.
https://www.metservice.com/towns-cities/locations/auckland/7-days
That will help. But I think tactical voting will be another major issue. If Labour voters think they will lose anyway, they may well tactically vote NZ First to counter-balance the impact of ACT.
I think both the Greens and NZ First will do well this year. I have strong doubts about Labour though.
An old workmate of mine many years ago, who was British, said that on election day "the Tories all pray for rain".
And there did used to be a common perception that bad weather on polling day favoured National with the inference that Labour voters didn't like going out into the rain. All anecdotal.
When polling was all on one single day 9 am to 7 pm that might have been the case but in the days of multi day polling it could hardly be a factor now.
I am not so sure the weather is such a big factor these days due to the large amount of early voting.
It was more a case of telling the working class to use the weather as an excuse not to vote, and inferring the middle class got ahead because they were the more determined to.
Chris Bishflap Bishop…mis-spoke. Ah huh. lmao : )
When is a feint not really a genuflection? Bish ponders. Such subtlety in the man will seem awe-inspiring to any simple Nat reader.
Chris Bishflap Bishop wants to hedge his bet..or something. Maybe bet his hedge ? So confusing.
And seemingly..thats his mental norm : )
"In the national interest", or in National’s best interests? Be honest.
Bishop is right.
National hasn't committed the blunder – yet – because the results haven't yet shown whether it is a blunder or not.
National have gambled on being able to get New Zealand First to pull their heads out, they'll need all the luck they can get. Only time will tell now whether they were brave or foolish.
Telling that a political party who tells us how committed they are to stable government is willing to kow tow to a rag tag of dissenters, conspiracy theorists and Muldoonists to gain power.
Shoutout to the CTU for helping to shank National last week and this week.
Work that should have been the bread and butter of a party doing its job.
Best to have a plurality of voices supporting your campaign, and unions have always done that.
They are one of the few loud voices to retaining this government and their support is appreciated.
Also, unions have a democratic right to do it.
Totally. Labour should have done this mahi earlier.
After the questioning of the accounting skills of the English literature graduate, and exposing the marketing fraud of the up to $250 each fortnight in tax cuts for a really small number, and discovery of how much better off landlords would be under National (and no not $10-25 a week) we come to the issue of rents.
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2023/10/new-zealand-s-median-weekly-rent-up-eye-watering-amount-as-gap-between-demand-supply-widens-trade-me.html
How hard would it be for Labour to say the RB Governor forecast 4% inflation for 2023 and 3% for 2024 and yet rents went up from $575 to $620 in the past year – 7.8%.
Thus Labour would adopt the Greens 3% increase cap for rents if re-elected?
While that might reduce tax from rent income, Labour would be developing some windfall profits taxation revenue to cover that.
3 days to go and the pressure is showing …the politicians, their supporters, the media , the commentators….and likely no relief in sight.
Bread and circuses?
Bread and circuses?
Okay, try this circus:
It would indeed be a circus….I imagine such a referendum could never be held as the framing of the principles would never be agreed upon.
Having said that, I expect that when the time comes for a formal constitution, likely with the displacing of the monarchy then the issue will have to be addressed.
I note that the idea of republicanism appears to have been removed from political discourse in recent times.
republicanism
Discredited by Trump. Having a leading Green as monarch!
Principled republicans are a rare breed in contemporary society. Yet I could easily be part of such a tribe if they used suitable framing.
The will of the people makes an excellent principle for the basis. Too bad it is lowest common-denominator in output, when meritocracy operates in unison with democracy. A ruling elite seems naturally selected.
Thus the paradox republicans are forever entrapped by, and consequent resort to simulations as tactical ploy – best tool to use on the job.
I would be interested to hear the thoughts of left wingers here.
If NZ First is in a position to form a government with Labour/Greens/TPM, should the Labour coalition negotiate with NZ First, given the commitment from Chippy to exclude NZ First? And NZ First's similar stance.
I imagine trust from the electorate would be hugely undermined. So I wonder whether the benefit would be worth the cost.
Sigh.
Peters said he would not support a Labour government.
History. He said he would support the larger party in 2005, he did. He made no assurance in 2017 – left his options open (as he did in 1996).
He is to believed.
The odds of a National led government – even where NACT have less seats than L/G/TPM are very good 90%+.
The question would be over the nature of the government.
For mine the odds of a National government with support agreements from ACT and NZF is over 50%. Other options are a three party coalition and a two party coalition with a support partner or with a confidence and supply partner.
The best bad scenario is nat nzf coalition with act back on its leash as c/s partner then slowly becoming a .1% party.
Hipkins/Labour have ruled Winston out. End of story.
Under what circumstances would Peters initiate such negotiations? (I can't see that Hipkins would initiate them)
It would require this:
That's a long chain of preconditions with decreasing likelihood at every step. I don't think we even need to bother considering it. Luxon wants to be PM desperately, it oozes pathetically from him. Peters loves being in government, dead rats will be swallowed, a grotesque dance of death will ensue and plenty of damage will be done to those worst placed to deal with it. We need Lab/Grn/TPM at 50% – of at least higher that NACT-NZF.
If Winston goes to labour Winston needs to be bought to heel, immediately or told to fuck off, if we end up at another election because of Winston the blame has to fall on nact, because the electorate will be pissed,
Remember it was luxon not ruling him out that brought him back
He just keeps delivering all day, every day:
From NZ Herald:
NZ Herald Poll of Polls, live updates: 1 News, Newshub election surveys show Winston Peters in control – NZ Herald
"Luxon said he hadn’t read the Act Party’s policy on electronic monitoring of beneficiaries' spending. …
After media explained Act’s policy, Luxon said it was punitive, but declined to comment on how he would negotiate with David Seymour."
(italics added)
You could be forgiven thinking..he's making it up as he goes?
What a shambolic. Grud I hope people who were undecided…see this and vote Left !
Fight fight fight..the "Itchy" and "scratchy" show….(Credit to the Simpsons: )
Well, hopefully their cooker supporters keep loyal to their Leaders.
Looks like the steam is running out of the voting. Second day in a row it is less than the 2017 figures.
"Commenting on the advance voting figures, he says there is no doubt in his mind that voter turnout will be down in 2023 from a relatively strong turnout in 2020.
"It’s just a question of how much it falls," he says.
"In my mind, especially after witnessing the lacklustre campaign together with the very low advance voting figures, the turnout is likely to be extremely low, and will quite possibly be the lowest in New Zealand’s electoral history," says Edwards.
"Previously the record was in 2011 when the general election had a turnout of only 69.6% of eligible voters. If voter turnout falls below the 2011 figure, producing the lowest vote since full suffrage was implemented, this will be something of a wakeup call that the political system isn’t working."
https://www.interest.co.nz/public-policy/124724/far-fewer-people-have-advance-voted-compared-2020-so-far-perhaps-turned-hollow
If we project current early vote trend through to the end of fri we will be around the 1.2 million mark of around 3.6 eligible to vote….looks like the turnout will be lower than 2017 unless theres a significant surge
Someone tell Edwards that it's not a wake up call that the system isn't working, it's a wake up call to the major parties that their policy offerings are not sufficiently popular to get the vote out.
that could be to the lefts advantage. a swing left and fewer advanced votes, opportunity for more to swing left. not a bad thing at all necessarily having fewer advanced votes
Nicola Willis has nightmares about Labour, Greens, and Te Pāti Māori Government
"My dreams are haunted by the idea of what New Zealand will look like for the next three years with a Labour, Greens, Te Pati Māori government.
"I am deeply troubled by it."
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300987385/nz-election-2023-live-whats-haunting-nicola-willis-in-last-days-of-the-campaign-trail
Obviously she has very selective dreams…….the rest of us have frightening nightmares of what NZ will look like with a Nact/NZF rabble with their sweaty fingers on the levers of power……..
No ice creams and movies for her children.
Indeed, truly haunting prospect …
I am hallucinating just thinking of a NACT Government under Luxon/Seymour a NACT First Government may be bearable with Winston and NZF being able to keep NACT in check however don't know how harmonious it will be, interesting times in NZ Politics.
Atleast she's honest, I'm sure government that is trying to lift all kiwis out of poverty and house all kiwis is a nightmare for a nasty whip the poor enrich the wealthy type of person.
Of course, Nicola Willis is to be respected for admitting that the possibility of a left-win is now so realistic that it is keeping her awake at night…
happy to say today I vote for a government that will continue doing the work on addressing climate change, rather than a coalition of climate chaos which thinks it's ok the kick the can down the road another 5 years or pretend we don't have to worry about the effects of CC until 2040 or 2050
Saw the last of the leaders' debates, although I voted on 2nd October.
I've criticised Labour on a few occasions for taking what they thought was the moral high ground and letting National get away with its dirty politics (instead of calling it out), but I'm a proud leftie tonight. Hipkins couldn't have done a better job of keeping the moral high ground while still pointing out where National's playing dirty politics with both the left parties AND New Zealand's voting public. Well Done, Hipkins. This is how Labour should play it all the time. Bring it on in the house, either from the government or opposition benches.
And I don't think it was a low blow (as Cunliffe thinks it was) that Hipkins drew attention to Luxon's keeping Uffindel in place. The public do deserve better than a school bully who took his bullying into adult life and it's certainly not wrong to point that out. More so, when Luxon opened himself up for the response by laughing at Hipkins for losing 5 MPs, when Luxon keeps the calibre of Uffindel in place.
And, Luxon just made himself look foolish by saying he spends $60 a week on food and Pullya Benefit only made it worse by suggesting he misunderstood the question and didn't include his Bellamy's meals. If Luxon can't, as Pullya suggested, understand a simple question like "How much do you spend each week on food?" and put it into the context of Agnes, who only has that much each week to feed her family, then he's got no right to put himself up to run the country. Hipkins was right to say Seymour and Peters will run rings around Luxon.
I think Luxon answered the question for himself when he is in Wellington rather than his whole family spend, but even the (daft) individualistic framing shows that at his heart, he is about individualism.
Thinker, I totally agree with your take on the debate.
Thinker, also agree with your sentiment about the debate. As for Pullyas faux outrage, it’s as faux as the tacky leopard prints she was so fond of assaulting our eyes with.
Luxon had Uffindel as a shadow for months. Here he is, here he is, here he is, so important he has to be there. If he's that important why not talk about him?
Tried to insert an image but couldn't get it formatted properly.
Here's the link:
https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=798470332282597&set=a.532016415594658