Lab+Greens move well clear of National in latest poll

Written By: - Date published: 7:15 am, October 11th, 2012 - 98 comments
Categories: polls - Tags:

The Key effect is over. That’s the conclusion you draw from the latest Roy Morgan poll. It shows National down to 41.5% and Lab+Green surging to 47%. The last time National polled consistently in this range was before Key became leader. Now Key’s no longer an asset, it’s only a matter of time before he’s a liability. The Collins and Joyce Factions will be sharpening the knives.

Also notable in the poll is that just 44% of people think National is leading the country in the right direction. That’s a 3.5% drop from the previous low since National came to power – and that previous low was the last poll before this one.

Labour’s 33.5% is it highest since the election. The Greens and NZF are also doing well (and I think we can put to sleep the idea of a Key-Winston deal, with Peters calling on Key to resign as GCSB minister and Key joking ‘where’s Winston’ while holding a nail gun yesterday).

With more revelations on Dotcom every day and all the inquires still to report; with the job market tanking and Key refusing to acknowledge a problem as the opposition’s economic positioning becomes increasingly robust; with the Right of National increasingly putting the pedal to the metal to get through whatever extreme Right policies it can before leaving power; wnd with, frankly, the guy looking like he’s given up on any pretense of governing (he spent yesterday drinking at a brewery opening and then visiting a building site!) – how long does anyone think Key will last?

He will never go into an election he’s not very confident of winning. He’s too vain to risk losing.

So, will he go for an early election before all hope is gone? He could use Banks as the justification.

Or will he pray for a turn-around and then bail in early 2014 when it’s clear all is lost?

And how long will the backbenches let him lead when its their careers on the line?

On the current numbers, National would lose 8 of its 59 MPs.

Cam Calder, Jackie Blue,* Jonathan Young, Chris Auchinvole, Nicky Wagner, Tau Henare, Katrina Shanks, and Alfred Ngaio would all lose their seats on the current numbers with the current list. (Paul Goldsmith will be saved by taking Epsom).

An 5.5% swing from National to Labour would see National lose Auckland Central, Christchurch Central, Maungakiekie, Napier, Waitakere, and Waimakariri.

Good times for the Left, but not as good as when we get Key and his gang out of office.

*why the hell is Blue so low on the list?

lprent: The poll is here.

98 comments on “Lab+Greens move well clear of National in latest poll ”

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  1. burt 1
    11 October 2012 at 7:56 am

    Oh shit…. This can’t be serious…. people really want a govt that will print money and increase taxes… I guess if we get a Labour + Green government the solution will be to go on a benefit or leave NZ… I’m just wondering how many young dumb voters will be impressed with their pay rise to $3m/week under that government… that is until they go to buy some toothpaste and it costs $320,000.

    • RedLogix 1.1
      11 October 2012 at 8:05 am

      Gee burt. About this ‘printing money’ thing that has you so anxious…. where do you think money comes from?

    • Tom Gould 1.2
      11 October 2012 at 8:09 am

      burt, on planet Key everyone earns $3m a week. Try to keep up.

    • vto 1.3
      11 October 2012 at 8:17 am

      burt, moneyis already printed daily in New Zealand and pretty much all of the world, under the auspices of the great and wonderful captialist system. Did you not know that? That is how the world has ended up with more debt than there is money to repay it. And ended up with this great financial crisis.

      You egg.

      • Colonial Viper 1.3.1
        11 October 2012 at 8:30 am

        Yeah burt clearly missed the massive growth in Trasury’s M1 and M2 numbers over the last 10 years.

    • Brian 1.4
      11 October 2012 at 8:38 am

      Go on a benefit or leave NZ?… isn’t that exactly what is happening now?

    • Peter 1.5
      11 October 2012 at 8:57 am

      Printing money to influence the exchange rate is not a novel idea. The Chinese peg their exchange rate below the $US by doing just that.

      Go to YouTube to see how it works! http://youtu.be/cg17YTtsk2U

      • alwyn 1.5.1
        11 October 2012 at 9:45 am

        As a matter of fact the Chinese/US exchange has risen by about 10% over the last two years.

        • Peter 1.5.1.1
          11 October 2012 at 10:08 am

          No doubt but they still peg it. Besides, the point is printing money is not completely left-field

          • Draco T Bastard 1.5.1.1.1
            11 October 2012 at 5:07 pm

            What the right are actually complaining about is the government printing money because it takes the printing presses, and thus the power, away from the private sector.

    • Nick 1.6
      11 October 2012 at 10:09 am

      Never understood the logic that being on a benefit is somehow an attractive option if Labour gets in…

      Labour and the Greens have policies that are at least directed toward economic growth and job creation, its clear after 4 years of the Nats that they don’t.

      Printing money isn’t any particular type of evil, inflation is low and can be controlled by a range of mechanisms. The important thing here is that the exchange rate is hurting exporters (like me), most other countries are manipulating their currencies which is further overvaluing the NZD. What we are currently doing is resulting in small or nonexistent growth, loss of jobs and lower wages – its clearly not the approach we should be taking.

      I can assure you that if the dollar pulled back about 15% I’d be making more money, likely hiring more staff and certainly spending more locally (and yes paying more tax, but out of a bigger pot of money). No one I know would be jumping on a benefit with glee if Labour got in, much more likely the opposite, with Nats refusing to do anything that actually has an impact on the economy my friends that are businesses owners are hurting, friends in the public service are hurting, they are far more likely to be forced on to a benefit under the current government than under a government that re-balances our exchange rate and tax system.

    • mike e 1.7
      11 October 2012 at 5:24 pm

      Burt if you had a reasonable argument people would believe your propaganda!

  2. Jim Nald 2
    11 October 2012 at 8:05 am

    For this morning, congratulations and applauses should be offered to Key who can say he has personally achieved and experienced what a US President had reportedly been known to have said:

    “You can fool some of the people all of the time,
    and all of the people some of the time,
    but you can not fool all of the people all of the time.”

    Time and Truth are both now catching up with him.

    • the pink postman 2.1
      11 October 2012 at 3:40 pm

      Glad to hear that Jim .How the hell has he fooled the public for so long ? Now we have to get behind David Shearer and get his polling up. It’s up to us Lefties to get things moving now before the chance has gone, Interesting because I have been on a Labour Party stall this morning selling raffle tickets a very hard grind in Tory Cambridge but the response was very good plus s couple of small donations.Things are looking up dont you think?

  3. vto 3
    11 October 2012 at 8:12 am

    Campbell Live was brilliant last night.

    do do do do

    Key must be sweating …….

    • yeshe 3.1
      11 October 2012 at 10:02 am

      +1 beautiful journalism

    • Rosie 3.2
      11 October 2012 at 1:19 pm

      Indeed it was a brilliant show last night vto. Facts spelled out clearly and links between players shored up. Loved the wikileaks transcriptions regarding Key’s enthusiastic pro American stance and his eagerness to visit the president, highlighting the role he played as puppet to hollywood and the FBI. Theres no way he can wiggle out that when the facts are there, right in his face.

      Thanks for the article James. I truely hope the tide is turning this is the beginning of the end for JK.

    • Anne 3.3
      11 October 2012 at 4:07 pm

      Put this up on Open Mike but worth putting here too.

      http://www.3news.co.nz/John-Key-discusses-Dotcom-saga/tabid/367/articleID/253053/Default.aspx

      After the revelations on last night’s Campbell Live, listen again to the interview with John Key on 4th May!!

      • R 3.3.1
        12 October 2012 at 10:55 pm

        man oh man, that was truly disgusting to watch (apologies, I don’;t have a TV and don’t tend to watch unless my attention’s drawn to something).

        Why TF wasn’t this sort of thing sent on to Key’s overlords sooner, so that they can see what kind of buffoon they’re backing?

  4. Bunji 4
    11 October 2012 at 8:27 am

    Jackie Blue? Insert Region Here. She just doesn’t seem that good.

    And the Roy Morgan has their Government Confidence Rating dropping to only just above 100 (as much no-confidence as confidence) – lower than even the final days before the 2008 election…

    • Lanthanide 4.1
      11 October 2012 at 9:36 am

      Yip, I think that is the real number to watch.

      This particular poll seems like it’s skewed in several directions: NZ First unreasonably high, Mana on 0 vs 1.5% and National a tad low. I think the Greens is a correction against the last poll.

      But the GCR shows a distinct trend down.

      Be interesting to see TV1/TV3’s next “preferred PM” poll, see how much Key really is tarnished.

      • gobsmacked 4.1.1
        11 October 2012 at 10:56 am

        TV3 are polling now, to be released on Sunday.

        So everybody answer the phone tonight, they won’t ask your voice mail … 😉

  5. Roy 5
    11 October 2012 at 9:03 am

    It’s good to see that NZ voters are paying attention and changing their minds on the basis of recent information.

  6. Seti 6
    11 October 2012 at 9:18 am

    You act like the change is support is something the government or opposition is doing when really it’s just the natural 2-3 term phenomena then swap sides. Always has been, always will.

    • Lanthanide 6.1
      11 October 2012 at 9:38 am

      This is more Key and National self-destructing under the dotcom fiasco and continual denial of reality, rather than the opposition doing anything particularly of note.

      If National weren’t self-destructing, their polling numbers would be showing a much gentler decline, if at all.

      • Zorr 6.1.1
        11 October 2012 at 9:58 am

        The rule is never trust the polls…

        But when you drop approx. 7-8% support in a single year, with a 4-5% dip in the last month or two, it kind of has to be setting off warning sirens…

        • Tiger Mountain 6.1.1.1
          11 October 2012 at 10:33 am

          I don’t trust the dirty filthy landline polls, so when the torys take a dive it is significant because it is against major odds and spin. Enjoy your croissants this morning at Crosby Textor HQ.

      • Dr Terry 6.1.2
        11 October 2012 at 5:37 pm

        Lanth. Had Labour put in a creditable performance this year, the self-destruction would be very much more serious.

        • Colonial Viper 6.1.2.1
          11 October 2012 at 7:04 pm

          As it is, the self destruction seems to be coming from National’s kamikaze tactics, not from Labour’s generally silent guns.

  7. SMSD 7
    11 October 2012 at 10:07 am

    James, I would not rule out a deal between Winston and the Nats after the next election. With the numbers in this poll, Nat/NZF/Maori could form a govt.

    Maybe Winston couldn’t govern with Key, but do you think the Nats would hesitate to roll Key if that would keep them in govt? I doubt it. They would roll him in a second to keep power.

  8. Brett Dale 8
    11 October 2012 at 10:25 am

    He’s a slight little problem, first Labour’s numbers suck and the Greens 14%, yeah they’re going to have those numbers on election day, right?

    When in the history of New Zealand has the Green party, ever got 15-20% in an actual election. Come election time, they will get around 7% of the vote.

    • Tiger Mountain 8.1
      11 October 2012 at 10:38 am

      You needn’t be a dick all your life Brett, the Green Party secured 11.06% of the party vote in the 2011 NZ general election.

    • Lanthanide 8.2
      11 October 2012 at 12:19 pm

      You might want to reflect on National’s performance in the last 3 elections compared to the polls predictions.

      Spoiler: election day results were down by 2-3% vs the polls.

    • B 8.3
      11 October 2012 at 12:47 pm

      Even if the greens do drop to 7% who is going to pick up those votes – it aint National

    • lprent 8.4
      11 October 2012 at 1:53 pm

      You may be a teensy bit out of date…

      Greens
      2002 7.0
      2005 5.3
      2008 6.72
      2011 11.06

      Taken from the poll link that I added into the post (naughty James…). The polling figures for the last election were pretty similar – I think that they peaked on the poll at ~14% and dropped ~3%

  9. weka 9
    11 October 2012 at 10:42 am

    The Greens and NZF are also doing well (and I think we can put to sleep the idea of a Key-Winston deal, with Peters calling on Key to resign as GCSB minister and Key joking ‘where’s Winston’ while holding a nail gun yesterday).

    Both those men are power-grubbing politicians who will compromise in order to rule. They strike me as both being capable of stabbing each other in the front now, but shaking hands come election time. I don’t trust either of them and esp not Peters who has demonstrated he is willing to betray people who vote for him and go back on what he has said. Peters has also previously ruled out working with the Greens – what has changed since then? It’s to our detriment for the left to be complacent about Peters and what he can do at the next election. 

    I’m also waiting for someone, anyone, to be specific about how they would see a L/G/NZF government work.  

    • gobsmacked 9.1
      11 October 2012 at 10:53 am

      +1

      “Why are you supporting National, Mr Peters? You said … ”

      “No, you people in the media said …”

      That’s all anybody needs to know about Winston. His previous statements mean less than diddly-squat.

  10. Penny Bright 10
    11 October 2012 at 11:05 am

    John Key – New Zealand’s first U$A Prime Minister? 🙂

    Don’t think most Kiwis are going to be very supportive of that ‘look’?

    One minute you’re the rooster – the next minute – the feather duster ………….?

    Penny Bright

    ‘Anti-corruption campaigner’
    http://www.dodgyjohnhasgone.com

  11. Jackal 11
    11 October 2012 at 12:02 pm

    Farrar’s advice won’t save National

    So far only the left-wing show signs of making the changes required to ensure financial, environmental and social security for all New Zealanders. The alternative is more of the same from National, who have proven themselves to be totally incompetent! Their mismanagement is being reflected in the latest poll results, for which they have nobody to blame but themselves…

  12. Mary 12
    11 October 2012 at 12:48 pm

    Collins is such a toxic destructive and polarising individual the best thing the nats can do is make her leader.

  13. King Kong 13
    11 October 2012 at 1:55 pm

    Everyone knows these polls are rubbish.

    The rich and intelligent people who vote National do not have landlines.

    They generally communicate with semaphore and carrier pigeons. The polling companies completely ignore these methods of contact.

    • Colonial Viper 13.1
      11 October 2012 at 1:59 pm

      You do not appear to be using semaphore or carrier pigeons. I suppose we can deduce from that that you are not rich and intelligent either.

    • King Kong 13.2
      11 October 2012 at 1:59 pm

      Or if they do have landlines then it will be the butler who answers and they are generally left voting members of the embittered proletariat.

      • vto 13.2.1
        11 October 2012 at 2:06 pm

        …. with the pitchfork handily concealed nearby

        • Te Reo Putake 13.2.1.1
          11 October 2012 at 2:12 pm

          I hear they have a site marked out for KK’s grave, come the revolution. It’s between the croquet lawn and the peacock hatchery.

      • bbfloyd 13.2.2
        11 October 2012 at 2:46 pm

        Sad, Sad, Sad young monkey boy…..You’ve got nothing relevant to say, no brain to say it with, and no idea of just what an ass you make of yourself on a daily basis….. Yet you are still the best debater the tories have put up in a long time… veeeery sad…..

  14. Fortran 14
    11 October 2012 at 2:12 pm

    Winston only supports Winston. His word cannot be trusted.
    Why are we not allowed to know who are his co MPs, and why do they not say anything ?

    • Te Reo Putake 14.1
      11 October 2012 at 2:30 pm

      Is Winston’s rejection of Key getting to you, Fortran? The names of the NZF MP’s are easily found and I’ve seen a couple (Williams and Horan (sp?)) on the TV News recently.

      • bbfloyd 14.1.1
        11 October 2012 at 2:52 pm

        second that t.r.p…. I see them getting involved in the debating chamber on a regular basis….The only reason they are not widely known is the murdoch fourth estate don’t give them any mention in either the print, or tv formats…..

    • felix 14.2
      11 October 2012 at 5:02 pm

      “Why are we not allowed to know who are his co MPs, and why do they not say anything ?”

      Eh? The only way you would not know who the NZ First MPs are is if you take no interest in politics and never watch or listen to parliament where they all make regular and verbose contributions to the debates.

      (Oddly enough, apart from Richard the tosser Prosser, who everyone expected to be the outspoken idiot of the caucus but has hardly uttered a peep. Tight leash, perhaps?)

    • Draco T Bastard 14.3
      11 October 2012 at 6:09 pm

      Why are we not allowed to know who are his co MPs,

      http://nzfirst.org.nz/our-mps

      You can follow them on Twitter and/or Facebook as well.

  15. Matthew Hooton 15
    11 October 2012 at 2:37 pm

    So let’s get this straight. According to this poll, David Shearer has won back 135,000 votes for Labour compared with its election night result, and most of the people who post and comment at The Standard want to replace him with an untested new leader who lost the election night New Lynn party vote to Tim Groser in 2008?

    • Dv 15.1
      11 October 2012 at 2:41 pm

      Yes mathew you have benn right. Shearer has been doing so much betterer.

    • Lanthanide 15.2
      11 October 2012 at 2:41 pm

      I’d be happy just to see Cunliffe back in the finance portfolio.

    • bbfloyd 15.3
      11 October 2012 at 3:00 pm

      Matty, you may be having a hard day, but that isn’t any excuse to blow off on everyone like that…. no one has mentioned shearer on this post except you…..maybe if you stick to the real issues, and save the bitchy stuff for the cocktail circuit, you might have more credibility with people(at present, you are a standing joke among people I know).

      • Te Reo Putake 15.3.1
        11 October 2012 at 3:20 pm

        Exactly, bbf. However, if I can stoop to a bit of the snidery myself, I was at a do this morning where Joyce cut the ribbon on a new building. He seemed happier than a pig in the proverbial, laughing and joking with the punters. If Joyce is full of beans after a poll result like that, what does that mean for Key’s job security?

        • Lanthanide 15.3.1.1
          11 October 2012 at 4:58 pm

          Politicians always show a brave face in public no matter how bad the polls.

        • bbfloyd 15.3.1.2
          12 October 2012 at 10:41 am

          It might be misplaced optimism, seeing as how johnny sparkles may be looking down the barrel of our version of impeachment soon… that should drag most of the scum down with him…which is a standard tory trait(taking your enemies down with you). After that, who would be foolish, or vain enough to want the leadership of a party that has been exposed as a fraud?

          Collins, or bennett would qualify in those circumstances, or tau henare…..

          • PlanetOrphan 15.3.1.2.1
            12 October 2012 at 10:52 am

            Exterminate the Gnats M8!, I need some insecticide ……… Bloody chewing on our country …….

            (I’m not a terrorist, if that scares them, then they need to learn what Ironic Sarcasm means!)

    • the pink postman 15.4
      11 October 2012 at 3:54 pm

      reply to Mathew Hooton

      Add up the unemployed ,the new young voters who have just had a wage cut plus the old folk who are getting the wind up with all the cuts and the gold card threat and you have more than 135,000 you are in doubt over.

    • Pete 15.5
      11 October 2012 at 4:01 pm

      I’m man enough to admit that I was wrong. Shearer seems to be delivering the goods and once he has clear policy, perhaps he can be better at articulating it.

    • Blue 15.6
      11 October 2012 at 4:08 pm

      Seriously Matthew, just give it up. That joke is only funny once.

    • Lightly 15.7
      11 October 2012 at 4:51 pm

      Hoots desperately wants Shearer to stay in charge. Of course, it was Hoots’ joke to foist Shearer on Labour in the first place.

      Basically, Labour has recovered 6% without leadership. Imagine where it would be if it had some.

    • Anne 15.8
      11 October 2012 at 4:58 pm

      All you’re doing Matthew Hooton is reminding us just how afraid the Right is of David Cunliffe.

    • mike e 15.9
      11 October 2012 at 5:31 pm

      Mad Hatter I suppose you should send us a bill for your insightfulness!

    • Murray Olsen 15.10
      11 October 2012 at 6:03 pm

      I would want to replace Shearer with someone who believed beneficiaries should be able to paint their own roofs even if Labour were to gain a million votes. I would rather see the Tories with only one (can’t count ACT) party to vote for and a clear line drawn in the sand for a party which represents workers, minorities, the Tanagata Whenua, and the less well off. At the moment, the only parties coming close to this are Mana and the Greens.

  16. Penny Bright 16
    11 October 2012 at 3:33 pm

    Have just purchased an American ‘stars and stripes’ flag and some blue fabric for my next banner ….

    John Key

    New Zealand’s first
    U$A Prime Minister?

    Should look rather stunning ……………. 😉

    Have you seen other banners?

    http://www.dodgyjohnhasgone.com

    ‘Give a grrl a banner’

    🙂

    Penny Bright

    ‘Anti-corruption campaigner’

    • Tiger Mountain 16.1
      11 October 2012 at 3:39 pm

      You are not wrong Penny, Key represents US imperialism and finance capital here rather than this country over there.

      • Penny Bright 16.1.1
        11 October 2012 at 3:45 pm

        My next banner will be similar :

        Blue fabric / U$A flag

        John Key face:

        “Working for a brighter future
        for myself, my U$A bankster
        and corporate mates ………..”

        Anyone got a way to manufacture more hours in a day?

        🙁

        Penny Bright

        ‘Anti-corruption campaigner’
        http://www.dodgyjohnhasgone.com

  17. felix 17
    11 October 2012 at 5:05 pm

    I see John Banks has taken ACT to record lows.

    I wonder if he’s been tainted by his association with John Key… 😉

  18. captain hook 18
    11 October 2012 at 5:33 pm

    its symbiotic.
    they have both had a severe catalysing effect on each other and now they are going to reap what they have sown.

    • felix 18.1
      11 October 2012 at 6:03 pm

      You know what amuses me, Cptn and Doc? If Key had just stood Banks down right from the start this would’ve all blown over by now.

      • Kotahi Tāne Huna 18.1.1
        11 October 2012 at 6:08 pm

        Not sure about that Felix: Consider Banks’ public statements – the cabbage boat, the denial of “a relationship – he’s a married man!”

        Are these the ravings of a sane and predictable fellow? How could Key be sure what the loony would do if demoted? How could anyone?

        • felix 18.1.1.1
          11 October 2012 at 10:20 pm

          True it would’ve been a gamble, but Key used to be good at that kind of thing.

          What would’ve been the likely worst outcome for Key if he demoted Banks? A bit harder to pass legislation without negotiating?

          And that’s only if he couldn’t have found a way to reinstate Banks after the appropriate inquiries had run their course.

      • Tiger Mountain 18.1.2
        11 October 2012 at 6:09 pm

        Excellent point felix, go Dottie! It would not have been much fun in Mt Eden thats for sure. Used to visit a friend there for a few months, the Boston Rd flats suck.

  19. mike 19
    11 October 2012 at 6:39 pm

    I think we can put to sleep the idea of a Key-Winston deal

    Really?

    Some of us remember ’96 when he attacked National guns blazing before the election. Then joined them after it.

    • weka 19.1
      11 October 2012 at 10:16 pm

      Anyone else getting this error message?

      ERROR: please type a comment.

       
      [lprent: Interesting. It isn’t anything that I have seen on site. Did you copy it off the screen – no CSS. ]

  20. Andrew 20
    11 October 2012 at 7:11 pm

    Matthew Hooton, the right love right wing Mr Invisible Shearer and hate real Social Democrat Cunliffe. Because Cunliffe has balls and is a threat. Shearer doesn’t believe in Labour values, he just likes the PC image and sees it as suitable banner to do ‘nice practical things’ that every one can agree with. Real progress that creates commonwealth for the big majority always was fought tooth and nail by likes of you and always will be until you are completely sidelined as the antisocial wreckers that you are. Most people respond well to solid social democratic policy that’s why smarmy tories like you try to imitate it. The real thing would be an apocalypse for you.

  21. alexandra 21
    11 October 2012 at 7:21 pm

    The morgan poll is excellent news although if labour lets John Tamahere back into the fold I for one will leave the party!

  22. captain hook 22
    11 October 2012 at 7:55 pm

    flix.blowing over. are you talking about his hair?

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