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Latest Roy Morgan – Labour + Green ahead

Written By: - Date published: 7:20 pm, January 22nd, 2014 - 87 comments
Categories: polls - Tags:

The first Roy Morgan poll of the year is out.  Labour + Green is at 46% and National is at 43.5%.  Labour is on 33.5% and the Greens are on 12.5%. Support between these parties is still bouncing around.

The Maori Party is at 2%, United Future surprisingly on 0.5% and ACT appropriately on 0%.

This is going to be an interesting year …

lprent: NZ First on 4% with their usual bouncing around 4-5%. Conservatives hit their peak again at 2.5%.

87 comments on “Latest Roy Morgan – Labour + Green ahead”

  1. Anne 1

    Nice lead in to Cunliffe’s State of Nation speech.

    Could it be the Nats polling has been telling them something similar? Hence the Slater attacks and the upsurge in slanderous accusations. Have a look at Gower’s first political offering for the year:

    http://www.3news.co.nz/Labour-will-honour-deep-sea-drilling-agreements/tabid/1607/articleID/329376/Default.aspx

    Conveniently cuts Cunliffe off at the start when he mentions the various provisos Labour will put in place.

    • Colonial Viper 1.1

      This poll and the next one reflects the upshot of many individual family holiday barbecue yarns. As such, its looking promising.

  2. Zorr 2

    I like the Roy Morgan because it has such an established history. Even if the individual polls don’t matter, it’s like climate change – the trend is very obvious (John Key has spent too much political capital) and we, on the left, just need to continue putting in a good performance until the election to ensure that the support for National is eroded enough that we can start getting to work repairing the damage to our society.

    • mickysavage 2.1

      Yep and …

      1. Doorknock

      2 Talk to our neighbours

      3. Make sure that everyone is enrolled

      4. Deliver pamphlets

      5. Put up billboards

      6. Rest

      Then …

      Repeat 1 to 6 …

    • Anne 2.2

      we, on the left, just need to continue putting in a good performance until the election…

      That's the joy of Cunliffe. He will make a few mistakes for sure, but he can be relied on to put in a good performance at all times. For that matter so does Russel Norman – cool, calm and collected.

      I welcome a debate between Labour and the Greens on deep sea oil drilling. I see that as a healthy sign. I confess to being betwixt and between on this issue. On the one hand I am with the Greens on the importance of the environmental issues involved, but on the other hand it seems a practical step to take advantage of the potential for oil in our waters provided it is undertaken with every precaution. There will be many voters like me who would welcome a proper debate on this issue.

      • mickysavage 2.2.1

        Agreed Anne and TV3 were really naughty tonight in their reporting.

        Firstly Labour and the Greens do not have to agree on every issue, in fact this is an impossibility. The Greens will always be more staunch on some issues.

        Secondly TV3 spun David’s comments wildly out of context. He did talk about increasing safety standards and the general gist would be that off shore drilling would be harder. I do not understand the Greens to support an absolute moratorium although I stand to be corrected on this.

        Thirdly our society still depends on oil which means that we have to keep drilling the stuff. But we need to wean ourselves off it and we need to deal with the CO2 that it produces.

        • karol 2.2.1.1

          It sounds like an absolute moratorium to me – from the Greens.

          NZ Herald today:

          Greens Co-leader Russel Norman said his party opposed deep sea oil exploration because of the “pretty significant” risk of immediate environmental damage but also because of the contribution new oil finds would make on climate change.

          While the Greens refuse to set out bottom lines in terms of post-election talks, Dr Norman said there were clearly differences between his party and Labour, “but that doesn’t mean we can’t work together’.

          “It will clearly be one of the issues on the table if we’re in a position to negotiate after the next election and there will be differences in views around it. We’ll just have to negotiate and the relative negotiating strength will depend on the election outcome.”

          Green Party website:

          Deep sea drilling isn’t worth the risk

          But both parties are focusing on the risks as the main issue.

          Glower was over-exaggerating the conflict between the parties on this.

          • mickysavage 2.2.1.1.1

            Thanks karol and I think the two parties ought to be able to and will inevitably disagree on some issues. Some will prefer the Green’s position on the issue because they are utterly unconvinced on the ability of the oil companies to drill safely.

            • Colonial Viper 2.2.1.1.1.1

              Safe drilling and climate change effects are two important considerations.

              A third however is that of energy sovereignty. Exchanging real MJ of energy for electronically created currency makes no sense.

              NZ can benefit both more, and more directly, from those energy deposits by holding on to these fossil fuel fields with 100% ownership as untapped strategic energy reserves.

              There will come a time when our grandchildren will be very glad that this generation had the foresight to do just that.

              • Zorr

                In my experience, there are two sane (depending on your viewpoint) approaches to climate change and the use of oil:

                1) To husband our finite resources for the benefit of society at large in order to smoothly transition to an after-oil economy where we retain some of the current trappings of convenience but have cut away anything that we can’t reproduce the effects of without further damaging the environment (and this is the one I personally support)

                2) To declare war on climate change and do everything we can to stop the juggernaut that is the global economy before it drives us all over the edge of completely irreversible change that will leave our civilization in tatters (and this is the one that I am in favor of every time the latest round of rich person back slapping happens)

                With regards this, I feel that the Norway model when used to increase our energy independence, provide safer and fairer working conditions for oil workers in NZ and siphoning a significant percentage of the revenue to funding climate change research and mitigation.

                Though, having written all this sensible stuff, it still feels like the simplest road is to pull it all down and start again considering that the power overwhelmingly rests with the few and that as long as we let them retain that power, they will fight tooth and nail to keep it.

              • jcuknz

                Then as they become more valuable some ‘big brother’ will step in and take them away from us … and what do we have to stop them …. Tiger Moths and Piper Cubs?

          • Frank Macskasy 2.2.1.1.2

            “Glower was over-exaggerating the conflict between the parties on this.”

            Of course he was.

            It makes him sound ‘authoritive’.

            So more will tune in to TV3 News.

            So they can sell more advertising.

            Bullshit upon bullshit.

        • Skinny 2.2.1.2

          If you cut through Paddy’s sensational spin, the overarching message was clear from Cunliffe that is regulation is going to be in vogue in a new approach under a Labour Government. The message was loud and clear and there is not only a National audience, but a World audience that will take a steer from this approach. It’s exciting times, timing is everything and that time is now!

      • AmaKiwi 2.2.2

        Anne: “I welcome a debate between Labour and the Greens on deep sea oil drilling.”

        No! That’s divide and conquer. Whatever policy a Labour/Green government arrives at will be light years ahead of what we’ve got now.

        My Labour/Green deep sea drilling policy: “We oppose the current industry controlled policy. The oil and our coastal waters belong to the people. Their interests come first.”

      • Lloyd 2.2.3

        Anne, there is more identified oil in the world than should ever be used if we are to avoid the worst effects of climate change and ocean acidification from co2 production. Leave the stuff under the sea!

        New Zealand has amazing wind, wave and tidal resources we haven’t looked at tapping. Lets use them first before destroying our coastline.

  3. Te Reo Putake 3

    No sign of Dotcom’s vanity project/Orcon advert (though the polling period only covered a few days after the announcement). And, happily, no sign that going golfing with Obama makes a blind bit of difference to Kiwi voters.

    • Pascal's bookie 3.1

      Colin Craig got a slight bounce from all his coverage, to put him as popular as the rest of national’s mates put together. No wonder Key was desperately courting Peters today, telling everyone that of course Peters will come crawling to national. And he’s probably right, but desperation all around.

      And the right track/wrong track took a big jump with all of the ‘rockstar economy’ talk, but it didn’t translate to support for the Nats. That will have them squirming with interest rate rises just around the corner.

    • karol 3.2

      As far as I understand, the Internet Party is not registered yet – so no way it’d figure in the poll.

      • Te Reo Putake 3.2.1

        Not sure, karol. ‘Other’ scored 1%. Up 0.5%. I assume that’s where their support would be recorded, even if they’re not registered.

      • freedom 3.2.2

        karol, as there is a specific reference to Kim Dotcom from Gary Morgan it is reasonable to deduce that the Internet Party was referenced in the poll. I could not find any other specifics though.

        Gary Morgan says …
        In addition, Internet entrepreneur Kim Dotcom has announced his intention to start a new political party, the Internet Party to contest this year’s election. Dotcom is still facing extradition to the United States in relation to his now defunct file sharing site, Megaupload. The extradition hearing is now due to take place in July 2014 – only four months before the election.

        I also doubt we can read too much into the time frame he mentions, unless the plan really is to push the election back as far as possible, so Obama can annoint NZ soil before the G20 and JK and the NZ MSM collectively wet themselves.

    • Sanctuary 3.3

      The thing is our political establishment and the media pack that swarms around Key are way more pro-American than the average New Zealander, and kow-towing to the Americans can easily backfire.

      A lot of New Zealanders have a significant anti-American streak, and seeing our PM so obviously on side with the US president for being such a good boy grates with our nationalist self-image of being independent, nuclear free and all that sort of thing.

      From my soundings, most people saw the golf session for what it was – a pet getting his reward.

    • David H 3.4

      But TRP don’t forget he’s got ‘Wil’s and Kate coming out with George for Key to Drool over and get a million Photo’s taken for his album. It’ll be more mental masturbation for Key, complete with the goofy look.

      • Te Reo Putake 3.4.1

        I’m picturing the NZ Herald front page headlines already:

        Royal Tour Exclusive! Baby George takes first steps, heads straight to Uncle John.

        Royal Tour Update! “Toddler Prince’s first words: “Vote National”.

        Royal Tour Photo Shock! Stain on nappy looks like PM.

        • Anne 3.4.1.1

          Royal Tour Exclusive! Baby George takes first steps, heads straight to Uncle John.

          That’s only because when Uncle John saw which way Baby George was heading he stepped in from of him.

  4. Te Reo Putake 4

    Just did the seat allocator exercise. Assuming that all current parties retain their current electorate seats, it’s 61 for the right, 60 for the left. If the Maori Party only win 1 seat, it’s still the same, as they get 2 list MP’s. However, no MP, no majority for Key. In that scenario, LP+GP is 61, right 59.

    If NZF get 5%, then the situation is that National could form a majority gov’t with Winston or a minority gov’t if NZF agree not to vote them down.

    Remember, these are the best case scenarios for the right. Any further downward movement and they have no options at all.

    • weka 4.1

      Snap. Mine below left ACT out, which gives 60 MPs on each side.

      • Te Reo Putake 4.1.1

        I thought about dropping ACT, weka, but Epsom tory voters are sheep. Maybe they think of themselves as a better class of woolly backs, merinos perhaps, but they’re sheep none the less. Ultimately, they’ll vote whichever way John tells them to, which means Boscowan will be their MP after November.

    • Zorr 4.2

      I don’t know if I would laugh or cry under that situation if Winston refused both sides. By not going in to coalition with National/Labour, he would be outside of Government but every 5 seconds someone would be knocking on his door begging his indulgence…

      mmm… tail wags dog…

      • You_Fool 4.2.1

        I think in that situation both main parties would risk going back to the polls to get a workable government, and both would attack Peters in attempt to push his support below 5% – unfortunately I think this would work out better for Nat in terms of voter turnout, but it would be close.

  5. weka 5

    Putting that into the calculator, it looks like an even tie (I left ACT out for interest’s sake). Wild cards: Maori seats (I put the MP in for 2 electorates, but their % gives them 3 seats); UF; NZF reaching the threshold or not; what happens to the Epsom seat.

    Green Party 16
    Labour Party 43
    Mana 1
    = 60

    Māori Party 3
    National Party 56
    United Future 1
    = 60

    http://www.elections.org.nz/voting-system/mmp-voting-system/mmp-seat-allocation-calculator?asPercentage=1&partyName_0=ACT+New+Zealand&partyVote_0=0&electorateSeats_0=0&partyName_1=Alliance&partyVote_1=0&electorateSeats_1=0&partyName_2=Aotearoa+Legalise+Cannabis+Party&partyVote_2=0&electorateSeats_2=0&partyName_3=Conservative+Party&partyVote_3=2.5&electorateSeats_3=0&partyName_4=Democrats+for+Social+Credit&partyVote_4=0&electorateSeats_4=0&partyName_5=Green+Party&partyVote_5=12.5&electorateSeats_5=0&partyName_6=Labour+Party&partyVote_6=33.5&electorateSeats_6=0&partyName_7=Libertarianz&partyVote_7=0&electorateSeats_7=0&partyName_8=Mana&partyVote_8=0.5&electorateSeats_8=1&partyName_9=M%C4%81ori+Party&partyVote_9=2&electorateSeats_9=2&partyName_10=National+Party&partyVote_10=43.5&electorateSeats_10=0&partyName_11=New+Zealand+First+Party&partyVote_11=4&electorateSeats_11=0&partyName_12=United+Future&partyVote_12=0.5&electorateSeats_12=1&partyName_opt_0=Other+Party&partyVote_opt_0=0&electorateSeats_opt_0=0&partyName_opt_1=Other+Party&partyVote_opt_1=0&electorateSeats_opt_1=0&partyName_opt_2=Other+Party&partyVote_opt_2=0&electorateSeats_opt_2=0&partyCount=13&optPartyCount=3&action=Calculate+parliamentary+seats

    • dave 5.1

      except moari party traitor scum party to much torrie hugging 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000zero!

      • Flip 5.1.1

        I think the Maori party would go left if they thought it would get them into government so it would be a clear majority to the left.

    • dave 5.2

      i actually think labour proble closer the 39 percent greens it nats are around 40 percent at this stage greens proble 10 percent

      • alwyn 5.2.1

        Well I suppose I could, with just as much validity as you, claim that I think that Labour are probably closer to 25% and National are around 55%.
        How much validity have I for this view? Precisely none, which is exactly the same as you have for yours.
        If you are going to talk about numbers you use the ones the poll gives you or you don’t bother.

        • Colonial Viper 5.2.1.1

          With Shearer, I used to say that Labour’s natural range sat around 30% to 33%.

          With DC I think that has moved up just slightly, to 32% to 36%.

          Time will tell how this all pans out.

  6. Jim 6

    I see this poll result as a danger sign for the left. I expect NZF, UF, Mana, Maori and Conservative to all make it into parliament, which suggests maybe 61 seats out of 122 to the ‘right’, 55 to the ‘left’ and 6 to NZF. That can’t end well for the left.

    • Sanctuary 6.1

      I don’t agree, I am pleasantly surprised by this poll – Key and Colin Craig have had all the media over Xmas and Labour/Greens none, but their vote has stayed solid and National’s slow ebb has continued.

      National’s polling must be telling the same story, Key’s desperation in wooing Peters is evidence of that.

      • ScottGN 6.1.1

        Me too Sanctuary. I was expecting a bit of a bounce for National actually with the country on holiday and Key’s photo op with his golfing buddy Obama.

        • David H 6.1.1.1

          Well they do say a picture is worth a thousand words. In Key’s case it’s BLAND BLAND BLAND BLAND BLAND BLAND BLAND BLAND BLAND BLAND etc etc

  7. middxkea 7

    Fairly obviously the left need to look for a party who is going to win an electorate seat and vote for them
    in prefence to labour and the Greens. Hm that would be Mana

  8. Sanctuary 8

    Without Turia & Sharples the MP will go with Labour, and merge with Mana before the 2017 election.

  9. Sacha 9

    Please, can we stop abbreviating the Maori Paty as ‘MP’. Means Member of Parliament to way more people. Spell out the other. May not need to for long.

  10. tricledrown 10

    ha ha lol lbl

  11. Markymark 11

    The poll as bad as it is for National, indicates that they would still be able to form a government. The Maori party would ultimately be Kingmaker ( this is assuming Colin Craig gets gifted East Coast Bays – a fairly safe assumption given recent Key overtures).

    Nat: 54
    Conservatives: 3
    ACT: 1
    Dunne: 1

    = 59 for the CR

    Labour: 42
    Green: 16
    Mana: 1

    = 59 for the CL

    Maori Party: 3
    Total seats in the house: 121 (Assuming Maori Party loose both Turia + Sharples electorates while retaining Te Urruroa’s Flavell’s seat)

    Conclusion: Maori party would decide the govt. In all likelihood they would go with Labour.

    http://www.elections.org.nz/voting-system/mmp-voting-system/mmp-seat-allocation-calculator?asPercentage=1&partyName_0=ACT+New+Zealand&partyVote_0=0&electorateSeats_0=1&partyName_1=Alliance&partyVote_1=0&electorateSeats_1=0&partyName_2=Aotearoa+Legalise+Cannabis+Party&partyVote_2=0&electorateSeats_2=0&partyName_3=Conservative+Party&partyVote_3=2.5&electorateSeats_3=1&partyName_4=Democrats+for+Social+Credit&partyVote_4=0&electorateSeats_4=0&partyName_5=Green+Party&partyVote_5=12.5&electorateSeats_5=0&partyName_6=Labour+Party&partyVote_6=33.5&electorateSeats_6=0&partyName_7=Libertarianz&partyVote_7=0&electorateSeats_7=0&partyName_8=Mana&partyVote_8=0.5&electorateSeats_8=1&partyName_9=M%C4%81ori+Party&partyVote_9=2&electorateSeats_9=1&partyName_10=National+Party&partyVote_10=43.5&electorateSeats_10=0&partyName_11=New+Zealand+First+Party&partyVote_11=4&electorateSeats_11=0&partyName_12=United+Future&partyVote_12=0.5&electorateSeats_12=1&partyName_opt_0=Other+Party&partyVote_opt_0=1&electorateSeats_opt_0=0&partyName_opt_1=Other+Party&partyVote_opt_1=0&electorateSeats_opt_1=0&partyName_opt_2=Other+Party&partyVote_opt_2=0&electorateSeats_opt_2=0&partyCount=13&optPartyCount=3&action=Calculate+parliamentary+seats&action=See+full+calculation

    • felix 11.1

      “In all likelihood they would go with Labour.”

      Interesting assumption. What are you basing it on?

      • Tim 11.1.1

        re the conclusion ….
        the assumption perhaps that it’s only been TT (who STILL can’t get over her bitterness to HC), aided and abetted by her loyal servant PS are the ones that ran that “better to be in the tent pissing out” argument. MP voters have come to realise that what that meant was they were the ones being covered in urine.
        Of course it also assumes that they’ll no longer have any sort of influence. Not sure that’s true necessarily.

    • bad12 11.2

      The Maori Party would be the King-maker, Ha ha ha, what an assumption, the Maori Party at best can expect to retain one of it’s seats and very little of it’s party vote in 2014,

      If both Labour and the Greens do not stand candidates in the Waiariki seat then i suggest that the Mana Party’s Annette Sykes will romp home, and there goes Slippery’s majority…

  12. One Anonymous Knucklehead 12

    Still trending up then :)

    • geoff 12.1

      Yep and National trending down. That’s what I got out of it too. When you see a graph like the one above with individual results bouncing around a few percent then what’s the point of looking at anything but the longer term trends?

      To my eye (blinkered, leftwing, crazy wide-eyed commie fool) it looks like steady decay for National since before the 2011 election and steady rise for Labour since after the election. Greens look like they’ve held steady.

      So overall, cause for slight optimism.

  13. tricledrown 13

    The Maori Party has lost its support because it has sucked up to National.
    With no real gains for Maori
    Infact Maori are a lot worse off with big increases in unemployment especially Maori youth unemployment at record levels this is Egalitarian according To National.

  14. fisiani 14

    The sky is falling. The Cunliffe is all conquering. The Red dog will be wagged by the Green tail. The Yeah-Nah coalition is nigh. Oh woe is NZ.

  15. jcuknz 15

    So funny … all these people counting their chickens before they are hatched :)

  16. alwyn 16

    What I find interesting that the Labour percentage went fairly steadily down from the time Cunliffe became the leader until Christmas. Then he vanished from sight for a month. At that point the Labour Party percentage went up.
    I wonder if, now that he is back in the public view, the Labour figures will start to drop again. That would be a case of the better you get to know him the more you dislike him. It seems to be a bit like that within the Labour Party itself as in the three groups that got a vote he was least popular among the Caucus members, the ones who know him best.

    • One Anonymous Knucklehead 16.1

      What I find interesting is wishful thinking masquerading as analysis, and the stupidity of those who fail to realise their transparency.

      • alwyn 16.1.1

        Well yes, there is that too isn’t there? There will be plenty of them during the year, that is for sure.
        33.5% of the population are in that category at the moment, I see.

  17. Papamike 17

    What would worry me is that after the election is over and positions are being established to form the Government that Labour will have to concede much of the Greens policy to enable a joint coalition to be formed.
    The Greens are continually staunch in their stand.
    Labour to have the Government will have to buckle, and the Greens appear to know it – hence their effective silence to David Cunliffe’s comments re Drilling for example.

    • thechangeling 17.1

      And that is excellent if it happens. Withdrawal from FTA’s next please so we can once again make an increasing amount of what we actually consume, thus stimulating job growth, local investment and a concurrent lowering of poverty along with an increase in house ownership. The future is truly bright if the system is aligned correctly.

  18. bad12 18

    NICE!!! the first Roy Morgan of the year says to us all that 2014 is ours to win and i would suggest that Slippery the Prime Ministers speech today shows just how out of touch and vulnerable National are,

    With David Cunliffe to make a major speech on Monday, i believe this to be the first in a planned series and Metiria Turei doing the same at Wellingtons Waitangi Park on Sunday watch the miserable amount of momentum Slippery may have got from getting in first blown away by these major speeches from both major parties of the left,

    If your anywhere near Wellington on Sunday turn up at Waitangi Park coz i pick with the amount of Green radicalism apparent in Wellington this event is going to be pumping with a turnout in the thousands not the hundreds,

    The current RIFT between the Green Party and Labour being spun for all it’s worth by Slippery and the entourage of minor spinners is absolute bullshit, a simple negotiation surrounding allowing those with current licence to drill to fulfill their permitted,(under National), drilling with a tightening of the rules after that with a raising of the royalties accrued to the Government would go a long way to bringing both parties of the left closer together on this issue,

    Personally i wont rid of Slippery and this National Government and would urge everybody when these divisive issues arise to not simply leap aboard the bandwagon but instead use your thought processes to come up with what might be a suitable compromise position for both Labour and the Green Party….

  19. Penny Bright 19

    Watch support for PM John Key and National drop, as layer after layer of the New Zealand ‘corrupt, corporate onion’ is revealed ……..

    I predict that 2014 will be the year that New Zealand is rocked to the core by a series of corrupt political / corporate scandals, the same way New South Wales was similarly rocked by Police corruption scandals in the late 1980s.

    As a result, I predict a significant growth in public support for legislative change that will enshrine a framework for genuine ‘transparency and accountability’ at both central and local government level, and within the judiciary.

    Mark my words ……………

    Penny Bright

  20. Penny Bright 20

    Watch support for PM John Key and National drop, as layer after layer of the New Zealand ‘corrupt, corporate onion’ is revealed ……..

    I predict that 2014 will be the year that New Zealand is rocked to the core by a series of corrupt political / corporate scandals, the same way New South Wales was similarly rocked by Police corruption scandals in the late 1980s.

    As a result, I predict a significant growth in public support for legislative change that will enshrine a framework for genuine ‘transparency and accountability’ at both central and local government level, and within the judiciary.

    Mark my words ……………

    Penny Bright

  21. Tracey 21

    Does this poll mirror nationals internal hence the scramble to join with the one man puritan parties?

    Act will get epsom so factor that in.

    Hone will presumably win his.

    Dunne will get his cos national just told every national voter in ohariu to vote for him

    Presumably wherever craig stands national voters will vote for him

    What does that do to the numbers?

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