Open mike 13/09/2023

Written By: - Date published: 6:00 am, September 13th, 2023 - 57 comments
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57 comments on “Open mike 13/09/2023 ”

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  1. SPC 1
    13 September 2023 at 6:29 am

    Rolling polls

    After the latest result, Stuff’s Rolling Poll showed Labour at a new six-year low of 27.88%. Meanwhile, the National Party was almost 9 points ahead at 36.57%.

    ACT and the Greens were about equal, sitting around 12%

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/132914273/stuffs-rolling-poll-a-few-thousand-voters-could-have-a-dramatic-impact

    • Bearded Git 1.1
      13 September 2023 at 7:14 am

      In seats 56-64. It's still on.

      The Left's best bet is that the Greens keep rising. They may attract votes from across the spectrum and people who don't usually vote because of climate change-witness the flooding event in Libya now.

      • Belladonna 1.1.1
        13 September 2023 at 7:41 am

        There is zero chance that the Greens will "attract votes from across the spectrum".

        The GP is proudly and definitively a left wing party – there is no chance their economic policies are going to be attractive to a 'soft' ACT voter.

        The rise of the GP in the polls has been at the expense of Labour.

        Just as the rise in ACT is at the expense of National (mostly).

        • SPC 1.1.1.1
          13 September 2023 at 7:56 am

          The rise of the Greens is good for the left, the decline of Labour relative to National is the problem for a centre-left government.

          There are people of the centre and right who may be concerned about NACT on environment and conservation and our global future who have already decided to vote on these issues, and more may yet do so.

          • Belladonna 1.1.1.1.1
            13 September 2023 at 8:26 am

            There may indeed be centrist voters who are concerned over a National/ACT government. However, they are highly unlikely to move their vote to the GP – and much more likely to move it to Labour (the centre left party).
            Claiming that the GP can attract votes from across the political spectrum is a severe case of rose-coloured glasses distorting reality.

            • SPC 1.1.1.1.1.1
              13 September 2023 at 8:35 am

              There are people of the centre and right who may be concerned about NACT on environment and conservation and our global future who have already decided to vote on these issues, and more may yet do so.

              They can vote in a centre-left government by voting Labour (now a centre party).

            • Bearded Git 1.1.1.1.1.2
              13 September 2023 at 8:41 am

              So Bella you think that Climate Change is only a Left-Wing issue? With respect, I disagree.

              • Tiger Mountain …
                13 September 2023 at 8:54 am

                That is a venerable contradiction of capitalism–the bosses need physical and intellectual labour–at lowest rates and with compliant workers of course, and one would think, a planet to operate on that is not a burnt out sandpit or under water.

                Capitalists also need customers, which intrigues why employers and righties don’t like the basic income concept. At least it would preserve some purchasing power in this time of declining birth rates and AI etc.

              • Belladonna …
                13 September 2023 at 9:26 am

                Nope. But I think that the socialist economic policies of the GP are a profoundly left-wing platform.

                • Bearded Git …
                  13 September 2023 at 9:55 am

                  So I am arguing that people with strong CC concerns but fairly centrist in other views might be tempted to ignore/live with their (the Greens) other policies and vote for the Greens on CC policies.

                  • Belladonna …
                    13 September 2023 at 10:57 am

                    I think you underestimate the social/economic difference of the GP to centrist policies.

                    • weka …
                      13 September 2023 at 11:16 am

                      It's not that. I've known Act voters who've voted Green. People vote for all sorts of reasons, some understandable, some inexplicable.

                      The argument here is that people will vote on climate ahead of other issues like economics. For some people economics isn't a major criteria for voting choice.

                      It's true that the Greens are essentially a left wing party but in reality they are a green party, which shares a lot with the left, but has its own thing going.

              • Tony Veitch …
                13 September 2023 at 11:35 am

                To coin a political phrase . . . 'the reality is' the Greens are the only party taking climate change seriously.

                Any voter, of whatever political persuasion, if they are at all concerned about the state of the planet, have only one option to vote for!

                • Belladonna …
                  13 September 2023 at 6:40 pm

                  Well, based on that assumption, 90% of the voting population are unconcerned over the state of the planet.

            • AB 1.1.1.1.1.3
              13 September 2023 at 10:18 am

              “Claiming that the GP can attract votes from across the political spectrum is a severe case of rose-coloured glasses”

              It sort of is. But in my experience most voters have no real sense of themselves as being on a political spectrum. They certainly could not define the essential characteristics of any particular position on that notional spectrum. I am astonished sometimes to hear people who in terms of their economic interests should be natural 'left' voters say that they think ACT or NZF have some good ideas. Or by having to explain to a relative why Heather du Plessis Allan is right wing.

              It's true to say that anyone with the level of political and class consciousness to be self-consciously "right-wing", would never vote Green. But that is not all ‘right’ voters. If it was, there would be permanent stasis – parties would not rise or fall, the concept of the Overton window which describes historical changes in the range of what is thinkable, would barely exist.
              I’m not claiming though, that this fact means there is any great hope of a surge in Green votes in the next 4 weeks.

        • Roy Cartland 1.1.1.2
          13 September 2023 at 8:59 am

          Nice try. People hop across the spectrum all the time. If the Brook van Delden can go from Greens to ACT, it can definitely happen the other way.

          • Belladonna 1.1.1.2.1
            13 September 2023 at 9:25 am

            Nice try. There is a difference between people growing up and changing their political philosophy, and swing voters shifting votes depending on the political climate and the policy platform of the parties within their comfort zone.

            There is zero indication that the GP is benefiting from any votes other than the ex-Labour ones. Greens go up, Labour goes down.

            • weka 1.1.1.2.1.1
              13 September 2023 at 11:23 am

              There is zero indication that the GP is benefiting from any votes other than the ex-Labour ones. Greens go up, Labour goes down.

              short of a graph like this, or some research, it's impossible to know that definitively. That leaves us with anecdata.

      • Francesca 1.1.2
        13 September 2023 at 9:26 am

        Re the Libyan floods Bearded Git
        I have a horrible feeling that the aftermath of these events is taken up with panicky rebuilding of the status quo, under urgency , rather than big picture reflection .

        We absolutely know we’re in big shit, but the day to day necessities of living have a more pressing urgency .( Get that road fixed I’ve got a filthy mortgage and need to get back to work pronto)

        • Bearded Git 1.1.2.1
          13 September 2023 at 5:30 pm

          Fair call Francesca but I do think that, compared with say 40 years ago, people's consciousness of CC has massively increased such that it may be influencing the vote of many people now.

          Even in the short time since the last election in 2020 my reading is that CC has become a more prominent issue.

          • Francesca 1.1.2.1.1
            14 September 2023 at 9:23 am

            I agree.Somehow we have to address climate disaster without disproportionately slamming the poor

  2. SPC 2
    13 September 2023 at 7:33 am

    Jordan Williams has been debt clocking Luxon on tour and will do so to other parties as well.

    On the video he quotes the IMF on our current account deficit

    https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2023/09/election-2023-taxpayers-union-says-national-bit-ratty-about-gatecrashed-human-hoarding-event.html

    It is true that the IMF wants government spending constraint, and this is related to our current account deficit, but not for anything related to debt (ours is low).

    "Given the pressing capacity constraints and high and persistent inflation, the monetary and fiscal policy mix must strike a restrictive bias to rebalance the economy – internally and externally," the report said.

    But it warned there were dangers if government spending was too high and/or the RBNZ raised interest rates higher to tackle stubborn inflation, adding up to an outlook which was "highly uncertain".

    It estimated growth over 2023/24 would be about 1 percent, but inflation would not return to the 1-3 percent target band until 2025, and it continued to warn about the high current account deficit, which eased to 8.5 percent of GDP in the first quarter, which it said added to the country's vulnerabilities to global shocks.

    However, the report said the government's financial rules, which set debt limits and government spending targets, gave it sufficient headroom to cope with most shocks.

    The IMF praised our governments financial rules as to debt limit and spending targets.

    It's advice

    For the longer term, the IMF said targeted government spending would be needed to tackle the challenges of climate change, education, and freeing up the labour market, as well as tax reform including capital gains and land taxes, and a lower company tax rate.

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/496786/new-zealand-economy-faces-year-or-more-of-tepid-growth-imf-report

  3. weka 3
    13 September 2023 at 8:32 am

    Reminder that the Greens wanted a carbon tax not the ETS. Russell Norman speaking about the 2008 ETS legislation,

    I was the Co-Leader of the Green Party at the time, and we were very uncertain as to whether we should provide the necessary votes given that we supported a policy of a straightforward carbon tax, rather than a trading scheme. We also believed that while pricing was one part of the climate policy mix, it wasn’t the only part or even the most important part. The ETS was a very weak policy, but in the end, we voted for it so as to have something rather than nothing. The problem was that as the ETS was even further weakened over the years, it remained in place and gave the appearance that the government had some kind of climate policy when in reality, they didn’t.

    https://www.greenpeace.org/aotearoa/story/predatory-delay-climate-action-fonterra-dairynz-federated-farmers/

  4. Ad 4
    13 September 2023 at 8:35 am

    Luxon did not cover himself in glory on RNZ this morning.

    He was asked clearly what he would do as a result of the PREFU, and simply said that "National will release its fiscal position prior to the start of early voting." And stuck with that line.

    At least Robertson said they had a plan, there may well be other plans, but they and the ratings agencies were comfortable with that plan.

    It felt chillingly like National knew what they were going to do but it was too scary to release to the public.

    • ianmac 4.1
      13 September 2023 at 8:45 am

      Yes. Feel a bit sorry for Luxon. He seems to be so inflexible and gets hooked into a negative line and rubbishes any alternative. Even opinions cast by right leaning economists such as Taxpayers Union are rubbish according to Luxon. We should be shouting, "Show me the money."

      Even at this stage in the Election Cylcle you might expect clarity.

      https://www.rnz.co.nz/audio/player?audio_id=2018906693

      • Incognito 4.1.1
        13 September 2023 at 9:03 am

        Don’t be sorry for Luxon. He’s a very intelligent man and nobody forced him to become Leader of the Nats. His ambition trumps his skills though and he has to fake it till he makes it (over the line), which gives the appreance of Dunning-Kruger but I reckon most of it is a deliberate ploy and tactic to hide his real agenda that [it] is all about him. National is stacked with egomaniacs like Luxon and it shows. Once in Government he’ll be rolled so that the ‘razor gang’ can wreak havoc upon NZ – it is déjà vu all over again.

    • SPC 4.2
      13 September 2023 at 8:49 am

      He's lucky the PREFU 2023-2026 forecast was as government friendly as it was.

      His real issue is managing the fiscal tightness given the declining revenue from rent and the brightline built into their plan – the now expected (even by them) failure to meet forecasts for foreign buyer tax or the online gambling tax and lack of likelihood of making the cost savings forecast in the manner claimed.

    • Peter 4.3
      13 September 2023 at 9:07 am

      Really, is Luxon covering himself in glory on RNZ this morning of any significance? Any electoral significance?

      This late in the piece him obfuscating on RNZ about things like the PREFU, and simply sticking with some meaningless line means what?

      And too Robertson saying they had a plan the ratings agencies were comfortable with.

      The other day a Fijian rugby winger had to simply capture the bouncing ball and go over to score a try near the end of the game. He blew it. The ball doesn't seem to be bouncing awkwardly for Luxon. There's no opposition up in his face putting him under immense pressure. There are no unusual circumstances. The time clock is running down. A wide gap is obvious on the scoreboard.

      • Incognito 4.3.1
        13 September 2023 at 9:15 am

        The polls are something between scores on the field and punters’ dreams at the TAB with a cacophony of voice-overs from pundits and puppets.

      • Ad 4.3.2
        13 September 2023 at 9:17 am

        It won't likely change any votes.

        It is an indicator of the decision-making we will get from Luxon as Prime Minister.

  5. Adrian 5
    13 September 2023 at 9:31 am

    The bouncing ball is the media being favourable to Luxon et al. They want chaos and change because it sells papers and where do you think some of that 8 million goes to.. overcharged advertising for one. Want proof, I could not find any commentary, let alone a favourable one on thee quite good Prefu story on Stuff yesterday, it’s as if it didn’t happen, and as for John Keys statements that the National overseas house buyers tax was not a goer, only QandA made and issue of it. If it smells like corruption….

    • riffer 5.1
      13 September 2023 at 1:17 pm

      I don't know about corruption. That one rings about as true as the $55 million JIF causing corruption.

      I'd be more putting it down to laziness and ineptitude from the media on this one. It's just too hard for most of them to get their heads around, let alone have an objective opinion on it. Besides, any journalist that tries to do a decent story gets buried anyway.

  6. arkie 6
    13 September 2023 at 2:14 pm

    Climate emergency? What emergency?

    In December 2020, the New Zealand government declared a climate change emergency.

    But are we acting like we’re in an emergency?

    The short answer is no.

    International science and policy analysts Climate Action Tracker rated New Zealand’s current climate actions and policies as “highly insufficient”.

    Its analysis shows if every country acted as we are, we are on track to see a 4˚C temperature rise – far surpassing the goal of limiting it to the 1.5˚C needed to avoid the most devastating impacts of climate change.

    https://www.renews.co.nz/are-we-acting-like-were-in-a-climate-emergency/

    There isn't anymore time for inaction. Party vote Green

    • satty 6.1
      13 September 2023 at 3:37 pm

      Agreed. The National (Polluter) Party and ACT will set us back for many many years (after very little progress under Labour). Here a quick overview where each party stands:

      Stuff – Climate election survey: See how the parties compare

      We have to get our farming, tourism and transport emissions down drastically and rapidly.

      • bwaghorn 6.1.1
        13 September 2023 at 5:40 pm

        We have to get our farming, tourism and transport emissions down drastically and rapidly.

        Agreed, but how do you do it whole still providing benifits,Healthcare, schooling and all the other nice things those things pay for.

  7. Joe90 7
    13 September 2023 at 5:15 pm

    Luxon talking about Grant Robertson. The lowered brows, narrowed eyes and raised upper lip combined are a classic expression of disgust.

    I reckon it's Upper Room Luxon talking about Robertson.

    April #Nationalnotfittogovern

    @KoAprilahau

    The face of a jealous panicked incompetent Tory. What Grant has done is show their incompetence. The national and Act wrong again. What a laugh.

    https://twitter.com/KoAprilahau/status/1701574971284431343

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