web analytics

Polity: The new TV polls

Written By: - Date published: 7:13 pm, March 31st, 2014 - 24 comments
Categories: polls - Tags:

polity_square_for_lynnThe original of this post is here

The TV1 and TV3 polls yesterday show roughly the same situation, which also mirrors Polity’s poll of polls.

National retains a smallish polling lead over the left bloc of around four points. But Winston Peters and New Zealand First are starting their surge toward the 5% threshold. If they cross that threshold it would complicate the post-election picture enormously.

One added element to account for, though, is the increasing evidence of a modest mismatch between poll-based estimates of popularity and actual popularity in elections. Gavin White from UMR showed a few weeks ago that there are some important patterns of apparent bias in the polls. Specifically, the final polls before our MMP elections have tended, on average, to poll:

  • National: 2.4% too high
  • Labour: 0.5% too low
  • Greens: 1.5% too high
  • NZ First: 1.1% too low.

If we apply those possible biases to the latest Poll of Polls, we get a projected election result that looks something like this:

  • National: 45.4%
  • Labour: 32.1%
  • Greens: 10.3%
  • NZ First: 5.6%

Still a small bloc-level advantage to National, but close. And post-election it would be all down to Winston.

24 comments on “Polity: The new TV polls”

  1. JK 1

    What will the internet party do to the polls ? ? ?

  2. Grantoc 2

    Either nothing

    Or

    split and confuse the left leaning voting bloc. It’ll have no impact on the right bloc, except perhaps to consolidate its small lead.

    • Tautoko Viper 2.1

      The internet party will pull in many younger non-voters from last time and first time voters. This will probably make little difference to Labour but could affect the young green vote. More young people will become aware of the issues through the IP. Traditional MSM is irrelevant to most young people even if the Right think they have it all sewn up. Ask a young person who John Armstrong, Tracey Watkins or Fran O’Sullivan are?

    • One Anonymous Bloke 2.2

      Or (your blind spot is showing),

      Motivate some of the 800,000 non voters to vote.

      • lurgee 2.2.1

        I’m guessing if the ‘missing 800,000’ couldn’t be bothered showing up in 2008 or 2011, with asset sales, National Standards and all the rest of National’s unpleasant agenda to vote against, the Internet Party is not going to get them very excited.

        • Naki Man 2.2.1.1

          I would have to agree with you Lurgee.

        • One Anonymous Bloke 2.2.1.2

          Time will tell 🙂

        • miravox 2.2.1.3

          “I’m guessing if the ‘missing 800,000′ couldn’t be bothered”

          ‘Couldn’t be bothered’ is not necessarily the case. It’s how many who might be bothered to vote, but don’t.

          Not being excited by politics, not seeing an effect on their everyday lives, expecting a foregone conclusion, etc, etc, etc… there are many reasons why people don’t vote. I reckon Dotcom has probably got a better chance of picking up some votes from the 800,000 – even if just because people are a bit curious – than the mainstream parties have (as yet).

          If Labour/Greens can’t present something to these voters who might be bothered (just at the moment cant see quite why they should be) they may well find themselves giving up the election.

  3. Philj 3

    Xox
    Given that most folk don’t realize that they are being conned, duped, and Rogered, there is every chance for a JoKey to prevail come September. The game is rigged by You know who.

  4. Philj 4

    Xox
    Never touched the stuff. I wonder what your children think of your caustic attitudes. Especially about the AGW and the environment? I do fear for their future world. Wish I could ignore it like you , ,Naki man.

  5. Bearded Git 5

    IMO Winston hates Key and will go with Labour. He will not forget how Key treated him as a pariah in 2008.

    His price, which he will trumpet, will be (among other things) keeping the Greens out of the cabinet.

    • Tracey 5.1

      If he wants Greens out of Cabinet he wont be in Government himself. The numbers dont show he can govern with labour alone.

      Anyway Key has now announced himself as an environmentalist in claiming victory in the Japanese whaling case. That makes him a hippie and a loonie, or just a liar again.

      Naki Man and others don’t mind the loathing but him being a greenie!!!!

      Will key now wear a t-shirt to parliament

      “I saved the whales”

      • Bearded Git 5.1.1

        Tracey-the Greens (and Mana) will support Lab/NZF on confidence and supply. They have nowhere else to go. That means a Lab/NZF government becomes a reality.

        By the way I’m usually a Green voter.

    • Puckish Rogue 5.2

      Winston will go with whoever offers him what he wants

    • lurgee 5.3

      Peters has few fond memories of his last time in government with Labour so either way he gets to sate his sense of utu. I think the simple arithmetic of the electoral result will dictate his decision – if National’s share of the vote is massively higher than Labour’s he will ‘Heed the will of the New Zealand people and act to prevent the dictatorship of minorities, fringe groups and special interest parties’ – all with a perfectly straight face, of course.

      And installing a National government would, of course, almost certainly mean the Greens were excluded.

  6. Skinny 6

    I am relaxed having talked to many non voters from the last election. I would be surprised if as a base figure 350,000 will show up this election. The Internet Party more so than any other political party will account for 150,000 to show up to vote. Labour will target the South Auckland vote now Mat McCarten is at the helm. NZF is gaining traction now people see a National alliance is out of the question.

    • lurgee 6.1

      Nothing is ever out of the question where Winston is concerned. He is very good at putting aside his ‘personal distaste and conflicting desires’ when high office and the accompanying baubles are concerned.

  7. Tim O'Hara 7

    The one thing that’s missing from all this smokescreen talk on polls is the elephant in the room…Cunliffe’s leadership or lack of it. Forget all this nonsense of dabbling around the edges of the margins and margins of error, the Party has gone backwards in every poll since DC was elected as leader. Whereas David Shearer was showing a percentage point growth poll on poll for most of his tenure, Cunliffe has gone backwards at a huge rate of knots. Time has basically run out and all this margin stuff is only hiding the fact that as leader he has about as much chance of leading Labour to victory as the New Lynn LEC has of telling their Emperor that he’s not wearing any clothes. It’s too late to make a change before the election now but when Labour settles in for 3 more years in opposition will the membership start that term by getting rid of this nice but ineffective leader. More and more I’m hearing people say that David Shearer should never have been placed in the position where he felt a need to step down. He’s no longer the fumbler that we saw in the beginning and it feels like his time to lead as returned.

    • lurgee 7.1

      I admit Cunliffe is a in sticky situation. It isn’t really his fault any more than stagnant polls were Shearer’s fault. The’r simply up against something almost incomprehensibly difficult to combat – the John Key effect.

      People genuinely respond to him. Hell, even I can’t escape the feeling that I wouldn’t mind going out for a pint with him, and (this is the clever bit) I can’t help but feel that he would enjoy it as well. Of course he wouldn’t – but the perception is there that he would. That’s (one reason) why people respond to him.

      Cunliffe, and Goff and Shearer before him, are simply up against something they don’t seem equipped to fight. Goff’s experience and blokeish familiarity were not enough. Shearer’s Astonishing Back Story got him nowhere. Cunliffes (dubious) leftwing credentials, intelligence and passion don’t seem to be having any impact either. And now it is election year, so there needs to be something happening.

      • Didi 7.1.1

        Truth is Shearer was actively undermined by the far left blogosphere – The Standard, Chris Trotter, Brian Edwards, Bomber Bradbury. A year ago Labour was on its way to victory, now its in damage control. Shearer is as likeable and as clever as John Key. All he needed was a party to back him. The Labour activists got this one wrong. Too bad that ego will be delivering another three years for National.

  8. fambo 8

    ahh John Key – girls want to be with him, guys want to be like him

    • lurgee 8.1

      You must admit, it would b quite cool to be able to say start anecdotes, “John and I were …”

      • Hamish 8.1.1

        Totally! like how cool would it be to have known hitler and say “Adolf and I were…”

Recent Comments

Recent Posts

  • Saudi sheep deal still stinks
    Documents released today confirm Treasury were not aware of any threat of legal action from a Saudi businessman to justify the Government handing over millions of dollars in taxpayers’ money, Labour MP David Parker says. “Almost $12 million has been ...
    2 days ago
  • Assaults up over the past year
    The Government needs to take a good look at the latest statistics  out today from the Statistics Department that shows there were 3,000 more assaults in 2015-16 than the previous year, says Labour’s Police spokesperson Stuart Nash.  “That  is a ...
    2 days ago
  • More last minute policy from a Government with no housing plan
    Paula Bennett’s policy to fund $9 million worth of support services is much-needed help for the homeless but smacks of yet another last minute, short-sighted and piecemeal decision, Leader of the Opposition Andrew Little says. “Funding services for two years ...
    2 days ago
  • SFO given more info on ex Ministry staffer
    More information on the background and past activities of a former senior Ministry of Transport manager, being investigated for alleged fraud, is coming to light, Labour’s Transport Spokesperson Sue Moroney says. “Today, I have ensured that information on Joanne Harrison’s ...
    3 days ago
  • Petition for free vote on Shop Trading Hours Bill
    “Labour is petitioning the Government to allow National Party MPs to have a free vote over Easter shop trading legislation, says Pacific Island Affairs spokesperson Su’a William Sio.  “The Bill which allows shop trading on Easter Sundays has just had ...
    3 days ago
  • Council must build on heritage, not destroy it
    Auckland Council must move to ensure there are heritage protections in place following recommendations that demolition restrictions be tossed out, Labour’s Arts, Culture and Heritage spokesperson Jacinda Ardern says. The panel considering the Unitary Plan has recommended removing partial protections ...
    3 days ago
  • Numbers of Māori waiting for homes grows
    With the number of Māori households waiting for homes increasing by more than 20 per cent in the past year, it’s time the Māori Party admits its support of the Government’s state house sell-off has made life worse for whānau, ...
    3 days ago
  • Children’s ministry, but only for some
    The Government is stigmatising a whole cohort of young New Zealanders while leaving others behind with its creation of a Ministry for Vulnerable Children, Labour’s Children’s spokesperson Jacinda Ardern says. “Confirmation of the move by Hekia Parata, an acting Minister, ...
    3 days ago
  • QUESTIONS FOR (ORAL) ANSWER – Thursday 28TH OF JULY
    While Parliament might be in recess, there are still plenty of things that Ministers need to answer for. So the Labour team has put together six of the best questions that the Government should be answering today (plus a special ...
    3 days ago
  • Fee fi fo fum…tax swindle comes undone
    At the same time the Government is looking to pump more cash into private schools the IRD is investigating several over a tax swindle which allows parents to falsely claim private school fees as donations and claim a rebate, Labour’s ...
    4 days ago
  • Government scuppers affordability requirements
    The Government must explain why the panel considering Auckland’s unitary plan removed affordability requirements at the behest of the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment and Housing NZ, Leader of the Opposition Andrew Little says. “Labour welcomes the Independent Hearing ...
    4 days ago
  • National pushes on with failed state house sell-off
    Merchant bankers, overseas companies and property developers will be lining up to buy 364 state houses in Horowhenua during two days of “market sounding” meetings starting tomorrow, Leader of the Opposition Andrew Little says. “Despite a housing crisis and families ...
    4 days ago
  • QUESTIONS FOR (ORAL) ANSWER- WEDNESDAY 27TH OF JULY
    While Parliament might be in recess, there are still plenty of things that Ministers need to answer for. So the Labour team has put together six of the best questions that the Government should be answering today (plus a special ...
    4 days ago
  • Andrew Little’s International Affairs Speech
    Tena Koutou Katoa Can I begin by acknowledging: Sir Doug Kidd, President, NZ Institute of International Affairs Maty Nikkhou-O’Brien, Executive Director, who did all the organising for today’s event. Labour’s foreign affairs spokesperson David Shearer. Victoria University of Wellington law ...
    4 days ago
  • Inquiry into surgical mesh needed now
    The Government must urgently launch a Ministerial inquiry into surgical mesh after more than 500 patients have lodged claims of complications with the ACC, say Labour’s Health spokesperson Annette King.  “This is the most widespread crisis involving surgical devices in ...
    5 days ago
  • Crime on the increase yet again
    Police Minister Judith Collins’ contention that crime is falling has proven to be wrong yet again, with latest Police statistics showing an increase in most crimes, Labour’s Police spokesperson Stuart Nash says. “Figures for June 2016 show an increase in ...
    5 days ago
  • Major reform of careers and apprenticeships to meet Future of Work
    The next Labour Government will transform careers advice in high schools to ensure every student has a personalised career plan, Leader of the Opposition Andrew Little says. “Today I am announcing the next Labour Government will commit to a major ...
    5 days ago
  • DOC struggles on the pest front undermine Nats’ predator-free promise
    The Government’s planned predator-free initiative comes at the same time as the Department of Conservation is facing major challenges to keep pest numbers down, says Labour’s Conservation spokesperson Nanaia Mahuta.  “DOC’s annual report shows it failed on 5 out of ...
    5 days ago
  • QUESTIONS FOR (ORAL) ANSWER- TUESDAY 26TH OF JULY
    While Parliament might be in recess, there are still plenty of things that Ministers need to answer for. So the Labour team has put together six of the best questions that the Government should be answering today (plus a special ...
    5 days ago
  • Unfunded CYF a ticking time bomb
    The Ministry of Social Development is sitting on a ticking time bomb with Child, Youth and Family out of pocket by $56 million despite increased demand for its services, Labour’s Children’s spokesperson Jacinda Ardern says. “The new entity that’s replacing ...
    6 days ago
  • Lack of any real funding in predator free proposal
    Predator Free New Zealand is a laudable idea but the Government has not committed any real money into killing New Zealand’s pests, says Labour’s Conservation spokesperson Nanaia Mahuta.  “The $28 million earmarked for this project is just to set up ...
    6 days ago
  • Andrew Little Speech to LGNZ Conference
    Thank you for having me here today. Local Government New Zealand’s work of advocating for New Zealand’s 78 local councils is critical as we upgrade New Zealand’s economy, and make sure it’s delivering for all our people. Whether in Auckland, ...
    6 days ago
  • John Key must sack out-of-depth Trade Minister
    The Prime Minister must sack Todd McClay for failing to do his job as Trade Minister and be on top of a significant potential threat to some of our biggest exporters, Opposition Leader Andrew Little says. “Todd McClay is clearly ...
    6 days ago
  • 45,000 Kiwis sent back to their GPs
    Last year nearly 45,000 Kiwis were sent back to their GPs without getting to see specialists they were referred to, says Labour’s Health spokesperson Annette King. “This is a shocking figure and underlines how far the cut of $1.7 billion ...
    6 days ago
  • Half a million smells like pure cronyism
    The National/ACT Government’s decision to pump hundreds of thousands of taxpayer dollars into a new lobby group to advocate for charter schools shows just how much of a failure their ideological experiment has become, Labour’s Education spokesperson Chris Hipkins says. ...
    6 days ago
  • Select committee changes Kermadec/Rangitāhua Ocean Sanctuary Bill
    Photo by Tom Hitchon Parliament’s Local Government and Environment Committee has made many changes to the Kermadec/Rangitāhua Ocean Sanctuary Bill in response to public submissions, particularly submissions from iwi authorities and Te Ohu Kaimoana.   Read the amended Bill and the ...
    GreensBy Eugenie Sage
    1 week ago
  • Housing map a hit as crisis spreads across NZ
    More than 55,000 New Zealanders have used Labour’s interactive housing map in its first week to see how the housing crisis is affecting their local community, Labour Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford says. “Our innovative map shows the housing crisis is ...
    1 week ago
  • Bridges must come clean about fraud within transport
    Hundreds of thousands of dollars of public money have gone missing and  the Minister of Transport, Simon Bridges must come clean after the Labour party revealed that a senior manager is being investigated for serious fraud, says Labour’s Transport Spokesperson ...
    1 week ago
  • Labour supports Spencer victory
    Labour congratulates Margaret Spencer for her tireless efforts in challenging the Government over family carer rights, says Labour’s Deputy Leader Annette King. ...
    1 week ago
  • US Warship visit welcomed by Labour
    Labour sees the United States warship visit as a red letter day for New Zealand’s non-nuclear status, which is core to our identity and has defined us a nation for 30 years, says Labour’s Deputy Leader Annette King. ...
    1 week ago
  • Time for honest dairy sector conversation
    ...
    1 week ago
  • What next? Dog kennels?
    Social Housing Minister Paula Bennett needs to explain why the Government thinks it is acceptable for it to refer families to live in garages and sheds, says Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford. “This is a new low, just when you ...
    1 week ago
  • Banks bust a move, Government possum in the headlights
    Three of the big four banks have acted responsibly by bringing the shutters down on property speculators earlier than required by the Reserve Bank, says Labour’s housing spokesperson Phil Twyford. “It’s a shame the Government isn’t as motivated to act ...
    1 week ago
  • Latest OECD dairy forecast raises serious questions for economy
    The latest global dairy price forecast shows that New Zealand dairy farmers will not reach a break-even payout before 2019 at the earliest, and will not reach the dairy price factored into this year’s Budget until after 2025, Labour’s Finance spokesperson ...
    1 week ago
  • National’s reckless, out of touch approach to economy exposed
    Today’s economic assessment from the Reserve Bank highlights the danger to the New Zealand economy from a National government that is recklessly complacent in the face of a housing crisis and a struggling export sector, Labour’s Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson says. ...
    1 week ago
  • GP’s visits get more expensive
      Visiting the GP is set to become more expensive after the Government ignored warnings that people were not receiving access to affordable  healthcare, says Labour’s Health spokesperson Annette King.  “Over 400,000 New Zealanders who should be able to access ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Farm prices bear brunt of dairy downturn
    The slump in dairy prices that has seen farm prices drop to their lowest level since 2012 and down a third from their peak in 2014 will be of concern to farmers, banks and our overall financial stability, Labour’s Finance ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Reserve Bank “gets on with it”, National carries on in denial
    The proposal by the Reserve Bank to tighten loan to value ratios for investors shows they are prepared to do their bit to crack down on speculators, while National is still stuck in denial mode, Labour’s Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson says. ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Housing crisis holds up interest rate cuts
    The housing crisis that National still wants to deny is stifling the New Zealand economy, says Labour’s Finance Spokesperson Grant Robertson. “The latest Consumers Price Index shows that all prices excluding housing and household utilities decreased 0.5 per cent – ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Housing crisis holds up interest rate cuts
    The housing crisis that National still wants to deny is stifling the New Zealand economy, says Labour’s Finance Spokesperson Grant Robertson. “The latest Consumers Price Index shows that all prices excluding housing and household utilities decreased 0.5 per cent – ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Govt’s state house sell-off ramping up
    Government plans to ramp up the state house sell-off by selling another 1000 houses in 2016/17 will mean more families in need missing out, says Leader of the Opposition Andrew Little. “New figures show the Government plans to sell 1000 ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Govt’s state house sell-off ramping up
    Government plans to ramp up the state house sell-off by selling another 1000 houses in 2016/17 will mean more families in need missing out, says Leader of the Opposition Andrew Little. “New figures show the Government plans to sell 1000 ...
    2 weeks ago
  • National must reassure exporters on dumping case
        The National Government needs to show our key exporters that they are in control of any anti-dumping case against China before it damages some of our most important industries, Labour’s Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson says.     ...
    2 weeks ago
  • National must reassure exporters on dumping case
        The National Government needs to show our key exporters that they are in control of any anti-dumping case against China before it damages some of our most important industries, Labour’s Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson says.     ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Papers describe litany of incredulity
    Treasury documents which slate the Government’s plans for a national bowel screening programme confirm the proposal was nothing more than a political stunt to cover up underfunding of the health sector, Labour’s Health spokesperson Annette Kings says.  The papers were ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Effect of rampant house prices widens
    The latest house price figures from REINZ show the housing crisis expanding throughout the country, says Labour’s Housing spokesperson Phil Twyford. “We are seeing steep increases in median house prices in Central Otago Lakes – up 42.4% in the last ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Public invited to have say on homelessness
    People who are homeless, those who were once homeless, those working with the homeless and concerned New Zealanders are being asked to share their experiences and solutions to this growing issue with the Cross-Party Homelessness Inquiry. This inquiry was launched ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Sorry seems to be the hardest word
    An apology from Hekia Parata to the people of Christchurch is long overdue, Labour's Education spokesperson Chris Hipkins says. "As if the earthquakes weren't traumatic enough, Hekia Parata and the Ministry of Education then attacked the one thing that had ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Housing crisis affecting more than 98 per cent of NZ
    Labour’s new housing map shows the housing crisis is now affecting more than 98 per cent of New Zealand, Leader of the Opposition Andrew Little says. “Housing pressures have seen house prices rise faster than wages in all but four ...
    2 weeks ago
  • Uber might not be a taxi firm but it must pay tax
    Uber needs to explain how it paid only $9000 in tax when it earned $1m in revenue and is one of the fastest growing companies in the country, says Labour’s Finance spokesperson Grant Robertson. “Uber New Zealand appears to be ...
    3 weeks ago

Public service advertisements by The Standard

Current CO2 level in the atmosphere