Thin and effeminate statistics
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- Date published:
4:05 pm, November 8th, 2012 - 25 comments
Categories: science, uk politics -
Tags: fivethirtyeight, nate silver, psephology
Here’s another entry in the Very Important Columnist vs Parasitic Bloggers file. While the professional mainstream media were all chanting in unison that the American presidential election was “too close to call”, one (famous!) blogger correctly predicted the result – for every state. The Guardian reports:
So who is he? … A statistical analyst of elections and a former statistical analyst of baseball. His blog, FiveThirtyEight, now hosted by the New York Times, is the go-to site for cold, hard election stats.
… Silver didn’t just predict Obama was going to win it. He correctly projected the results for every single one of America’s 50 states. Something 50 tossed coins would have less than a one in a trillion chance of getting right.
Ah, well. That’s a little more impressive. How’d he do it? With his “election simulator” statistical model, which aggregates hundreds of polling figures and economic data, weights it all for accuracy, factors in a load of fancy maths about past elections and boils the whole thing down to a percentage chance of victory for each candidate. On Tuesday morning, while many pundits were insisting it was too close to call, Silver’s model put Obama’s chances at a precise and healthy 90.9%.
How did pundits feel about that? Pretty uncomfortable. He was derided in the media as “a joke”, who was “getting into silly land”. One rightwing blogger even dismissed his predictions on the grounds that Silver – an openly gay Democrat – was “thin and effeminate”.
(Today’s xkcd is also on the case.)
In 2008 Silver correctly predicted 49 / 50 states. So, thin and effeminate statistics 2, mainstream media 0. Political punditry, at least in America, is going to have to lift its game…
Just for the record, Nate Silver’s predictions:
The result:
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- Release: Labour supports urgent changes to emergency management systemLabour welcomes the release of the report into the North Island weather events and looks forward to working with the Government to ensure that New Zealand is as prepared as it can be for the next natural disaster. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Labour calls for New Zealand to recognise PalestineThe Labour Party has called for the New Zealand Government to recognise Palestine, as a material step towards progressing the two-State solution needed to achieve a lasting peace in the region. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Three strikes law political posturing of worst kindThe Government is bringing back a law that has little evidential backing just to look tough, Labour justice spokesperson Duncan Webb said. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Government cuts unbelievably target child exploitation, violent extremism, ports and airpor...Some of our country’s most important work, stopping the sexual exploitation of children and violent extremism could go along with staff on the frontline at ports and airports. ...2 weeks ago
- Three strikes has failed before and will fail againResurrecting the archaic three-strikes legislation is an unwelcome return to a failed American-style approach to justice. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Environmental protection vital, not ‘onerous’The Government’s Fast Track Approvals Bill will give projects such as new coal mines a ‘get out of jail free’ card to wreak havoc on the environment, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins said today. ...2 weeks ago
- Ferris – Three Strikes targets those ‘too brown to be white’The government's decision to reintroduce Three Strikes is a destructive and ineffective piece of law-making that will only exacerbate an inherently biased and racist criminal justice system, said Te Pāti Māori Justice Spokesperson, Tākuta Ferris, today. During the time Three Strikes was in place in Aotearoa, Māori and Pasifika received ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Govt cuts doctors and nurses in hiring freezeCuts to frontline hospital staff are not only a broken election promise, it shows the reckless tax cuts have well and truly hit the frontline of the health system, says Labour Health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall. ...3 weeks ago
- Fast-track submissions period must be extendedThe Green Party has joined the call for public submissions on the fast-track legislation to be extended after the Ombudsman forced the Government to release the list of organisations invited to apply just hours before submissions close. ...3 weeks ago
- Release: Progress on climate will be undone by GovtNew Zealand’s good work at reducing climate emissions for three years in a row will be undone by the National government’s lack of ambition and scrapping programmes that were making a difference, Labour Party climate spokesperson Megan Woods said today. ...3 weeks ago
- Decisions on Wellington City Council’s District Plan
The Minister Responsible for RMA Reform, Chris Bishop, today released his decision on twenty recommendations referred to him by the Wellington City Council relating to its Intensification Planning Instrument, after the Council rejected those recommendations of the Independent Hearings Panel and made alternative recommendations. “Wellington notified its District Plan on ...3 hours ago - Rape Awareness Week: Government committed to action on sexual violenceRape Awareness Week (6-10 May) is an important opportunity to acknowledge the continued effort required by government and communities to ensure that all New Zealanders can live free from violence, say Ministers Karen Chhour and Louise Upston. “With 1 in 3 women and 1 in 8 men experiencing sexual violence ...3 hours ago
- Smarter lunch programme feeds more, costs lessAssociate Education Minister David Seymour has today announced that the Government will be delivering a more efficient Healthy School Lunches Programme, saving taxpayers approximately $107 million a year compared to how Labour funded it, by embracing innovation and commercial expertise. “We are delivering on our commitment to treat taxpayers’ money ...4 hours ago
- Report provides insights into marine recoveryNew research on the impacts of extreme weather on coastal marine habitats in Tairāwhiti and Hawke’s Bay will help fishery managers plan for and respond to any future events, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. A report released today on research by Niwa on behalf of Fisheries New Zealand ...5 hours ago
- NZ to send political delegation to the PacificDeputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Winston Peters will lead a broad political delegation on a five-stop Pacific tour next week to strengthen New Zealand’s engagement with the region. The delegation will visit Solomon Islands, Papua New Guinea, Vanuatu, New Caledonia, and Tuvalu. “New Zealand has deep and ...6 hours ago
- Low gas production threatens energy securityThere has been a material decline in gas production according to figures released today by the Gas Industry Co. Figures released by the Gas Industry Company show that there was a 12.5 per cent reduction in gas production during 2023, and a 27.8 per cent reduction in gas production in the ...11 hours ago
- Defence industry talent, commitment recognisedDefence Minister Judith Collins tonight announced the recipients of the Minister of Defence Awards of Excellence for Industry, saying they all contribute to New Zealanders’ security and wellbeing. “Congratulations to this year’s recipients, whose innovative products and services play a critical role in the delivery of New Zealand’s defence capabilities, ...19 hours ago
- Speech to the Minister of Defence Awards of Excellence for IndustryWelcome to you all - it is a pleasure to be here this evening.I would like to start by thanking Greg Lowe, Chair of the New Zealand Defence Industry Advisory Council, for co-hosting this reception with me. This evening is about recognising businesses from across New Zealand and overseas who in ...20 hours ago
- Speech to the Sixth Annual New Zealand Government Data SummitIt is a pleasure to be speaking to you as the Minister for Digitising Government. I would like to thank Akolade for the invitation to address this Summit, and to acknowledge the great effort you are making to grow New Zealand’s digital future. Today, we stand at the cusp of ...21 hours ago
- Ceasefire agreement needed now: PetersNew Zealand is urging both Israel and Hamas to agree to an immediate ceasefire to avoid the further humanitarian catastrophe that military action in Rafah would unleash, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says. “The immense suffering in Gaza cannot be allowed to worsen further. Both sides have a responsibility to ...1 day ago
- Daily school attendance data now availableA new online data dashboard released today as part of the Government’s school attendance action plan makes more timely daily attendance data available to the public and parents, says Associate Education Minister David Seymour. The interactive dashboard will be updated once a week to show a national average of how ...1 day ago
- Ambassador to United States appointedForeign Minister Winston Peters has announced Rosemary Banks will be New Zealand’s next Ambassador to the United States of America. “Our relationship with the United States is crucial for New Zealand in strategic, security and economic terms,” Mr Peters says. “New Zealand and the United States have a ...1 day ago
- New permit proposed for recreational gold miningThe Government is considering creating a new tier of minerals permitting that will make it easier for hobby miners to prospect for gold. “New Zealand was built on gold, it’s in our DNA. Our gold deposits, particularly in regions such as Otago and the West Coast have always attracted fortune-hunters. ...1 day ago
- NZ and the UAE launch FTA negotiationsMinister for Trade Todd McClay today announced that New Zealand and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) will commence negotiations on a free trade agreement (FTA). Minister McClay met with his counterpart UAE Trade Minister Dr Thani bin Ahmed Al Zeyoudi in Dubai, where they announced the launch of negotiations on a ...1 day ago
- New Zealand Sign Language Week an opportunity for anyone to signNew Zealand Sign Language Week is an excellent opportunity for all Kiwis to give the language a go, Disabilities Issues Minister Louise Upston says. This week (May 6 to 12) is New Zealand Sign Language (NZSL) Week. The theme is “an Aotearoa where anyone can sign anywhere” and aims to ...2 days ago
- Next stop NASA for New Zealand studentsSix tertiary students have been selected to work on NASA projects in the US through a New Zealand Space Scholarship, Space Minister Judith Collins announced today. “This is a fantastic opportunity for these talented students. They will undertake internships at NASA’s Ames Research Center or its Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), where ...2 days ago
- $1.9 billion investment to keep NZ safe from crimeNew Zealanders will be safer because of a $1.9 billion investment in more frontline Corrections officers, more support for offenders to turn away from crime, and more prison capacity, Corrections Minister Mark Mitchell says. “Our Government said we would crack down on crime. We promised to restore law and order, ...2 days ago
- OECD reinforces need to control spendingThe OECD’s latest report on New Zealand reinforces the importance of bringing Government spending under control, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. The OECD conducts country surveys every two years to review its members’ economic policies. The 2024 New Zealand survey was presented in Wellington today by OECD Chief Economist Clare Lombardelli. ...2 days ago
- Agreement delivers Local Water Done Well for AucklandThe Government has delivered on its election promise to provide a financially sustainable model for Auckland under its Local Water Done Well plan. The plan, which has been unanimously endorsed by Auckland Council’s Governing Body, will see Aucklanders avoid the previously projected 25.8 per cent water rates increases while retaining ...3 days ago
- Gaza and the Pacific on the agenda with GermanyForeign Minister Winston Peters discussed the need for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, and enhanced cooperation in the Pacific with German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock during her first official visit to New Zealand today. "New Zealand and Germany enjoy shared interests and values, including the rule of law, democracy, respect for the international system ...4 days ago
- Decision allows for housing growth in Western Bay of PlentyThe Minister Responsible for RMA Reform, Chris Bishop today released his decision on four recommendations referred to him by the Western Bay of Plenty District Council, opening the door to housing growth in the area. The Council’s Plan Change 92 allows more homes to be built in existing and new ...5 days ago
- Speech to New Zealand China CouncilThank you, John McKinnon and the New Zealand China Council for the invitation to speak to you today. Thank you too, all members of the China Council. Your effort has played an essential role in helping to build, shape, and grow a balanced and resilient relationship between our two ...5 days ago
- Modern insurance law will protect Kiwi householdsThe Government is modernising insurance law to better protect Kiwis and provide security in the event of a disaster, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly announced today. “These reforms are long overdue. New Zealand’s insurance law is complicated and dated, some of which is more than 100 years old. ...6 days ago
- Government recommits to equal payThe coalition Government is refreshing its approach to supporting pay equity claims as time-limited funding for the Pay Equity Taskforce comes to an end, Public Service Minister Nicola Willis says. “Three years ago, the then-government introduced changes to the Equal Pay Act to support pay equity bargaining. The changes were ...6 days ago
- Transforming how our children learn to readStructured literacy will change the way New Zealand children learn to read - improving achievement and setting students up for success, Education Minister Erica Stanford says. “Being able to read and write is a fundamental life skill that too many young people are missing out on. Recent data shows that ...6 days ago
- NZ not backing down in Canada dairy disputeTrade Minister Todd McClay says Canada’s refusal to comply in full with a CPTPP trade dispute ruling in our favour over dairy trade is cynical and New Zealand has no intention of backing down. Mr McClay said he has asked for urgent legal advice in respect of our ‘next move’ ...6 days ago
- Stronger oversight for our most vulnerable childrenThe rights of our children and young people will be enhanced by changes the coalition Government will make to strengthen oversight of the Oranga Tamariki system, including restoring a single Children’s Commissioner. “The Government is committed to delivering better public services that care for our most at-risk young people and ...6 days ago
- Streamlining Building Consent ChangesThe Government is making it easier for minor changes to be made to a building consent so building a home is easier and more affordable, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “The coalition Government is focused on making it easier and cheaper to build homes so we can ...6 days ago
- Minister acknowledges passing of Sir Robert Martin (KNZM)New Zealand lost a true legend when internationally renowned disability advocate Sir Robert Martin (KNZM) passed away at his home in Whanganui last night, Disabilities Issues Minister Louise Upston says. “Our Government’s thoughts are with his wife Lynda, family and community, those he has worked with, the disability community in ...7 days ago
- Speech to New Zealand Institute of International Affairs, Parliament – Annual Lecture: Challenges ...Good evening – Before discussing the challenges and opportunities facing New Zealand’s foreign policy, we’d like to first acknowledge the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs. You have contributed to debates about New Zealand foreign policy over a long period of time, and we thank you for hosting us. ...7 days ago
- Accelerating airport security linesFrom today, passengers travelling internationally from Auckland Airport will be able to keep laptops and liquids in their carry-on bags for security screening thanks to new technology, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Creating a more efficient and seamless travel experience is important for holidaymakers and businesses, enabling faster movement through ...1 week ago
- Community hui to talk about kina barrensPeople with an interest in the health of Northland’s marine ecosystems are invited to a public meeting to discuss how to deal with kina barrens, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. Mr Jones will lead the discussion, which will take place on Friday, 10 May, at Awanui Hotel in ...1 week ago
- Kiwi exporters win as NZ-EU FTA enters into forceKiwi exporters are $100 million better off today with the NZ EU FTA entering into force says Trade Minister Todd McClay. “This is all part of our plan to grow the economy. New Zealand's prosperity depends on international trade, making up 60 per cent of the country’s total economic activity. ...1 week ago
- Mining resurgence a welcome signThere are heartening signs that the extractive sector is once again becoming an attractive prospect for investors and a source of economic prosperity for New Zealand, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. “The beginnings of a resurgence in extractive industries are apparent in media reports of the sector in the past ...1 week ago
- Ō-Rākau Remembrance Bill passes first readingThe return of the historic Ō-Rākau battle site to the descendants of those who fought there moved one step closer today with the first reading of Te Pire mō Ō-Rākau, Te Pae o Maumahara / The Ō-Rākau Remembrance Bill. The Bill will entrust the 9.7-hectare battle site, five kilometres west ...1 week ago
- Government to boost public EV charging networkEnergy Minister Simeon Brown has announced 25 new high-speed EV charging hubs along key routes between major urban centres and outlined the Government’s plan to supercharge New Zealand’s EV infrastructure. The hubs will each have several chargers and be capable of charging at least four – and up to 10 ...1 week ago
- Residential Property Managers Bill to not progressThe coalition Government will not proceed with the previous Government’s plans to regulate residential property managers, Housing Minister Chris Bishop says. “I have written to the Chairperson of the Social Services and Community Committee to inform him that the Government does not intend to support the Residential Property Managers Bill ...1 week ago
- Independent review into disability support servicesThe Government has announced an independent review into the disability support system funded by the Ministry of Disabled People – Whaikaha. Disability Issues Minister Louise Upston says the review will look at what can be done to strengthen the long-term sustainability of Disability Support Services to provide disabled people and ...1 week ago
- Justice Minister updates UN on law & order planJustice Minister Paul Goldsmith has attended the Universal Periodic Review in Geneva and outlined the Government’s plan to restore law and order. “Speaking to the United Nations Human Rights Council provided us with an opportunity to present New Zealand’s human rights progress, priorities, and challenges, while responding to issues and ...1 week ago
- Ending emergency housing motels in RotoruaThe Government and Rotorua Lakes Council are committed to working closely together to end the use of contracted emergency housing motels in Rotorua. Associate Minister of Housing (Social Housing) Tama Potaka says the Government remains committed to ending the long-term use of contracted emergency housing motels in Rotorua by the ...1 week ago
- Future of the planet more important than the Greens survival, former co-leader James Shaw says
Former Green Party co-leader James Shaw calls out tribalism and hyper-partisanship - including in his own party. ...40 mins ago - Fourth urgent inquiry by the Waitangi Tribunal, this time on Māori wardsThe Tribunal is conducting another urgent inquiry into plans to require councils to hold a binding referendum on Māori wards. ...50 mins ago
- NCSC Briefs IPAC Representatives On Response To Malicious Cyber Activity
The Minister Responsible for GCSB and the Inspector-General of Intelligence and Security have been notified of this review, and have been provided a finalised Terms of Reference. ...57 mins ago - How is China being taught at Australian universities? And why does this matter? Here’s what our re...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Minglu Chen, Senior Lecturer, Government and International Relations, University of Sydney Robert Way/Shutterstock As the past few years have illustrated so clearly, the Australia-China relationship is complicated. As such, it is crucial for Australians to develop a more nuanced understanding of ...1 hour ago - Saving the Mary River turtle: how the people of Tiaro rallied behind an iconic speciesSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mariana Campbell, Research Lecturer, Conservation, Charles Darwin University Marilyn Connell Australian freshwater turtles are facing an alarming trend. Almost half of these species are listed as vulnerable, endangered or critically endangered. The Mary River turtle (Elusor macrurus) is one of Australia’s ...1 hour ago
- Why are algorithms called algorithms? A brief history of the Persian polymath you’ve likely never ...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Debbie Passey, Digital Health Research Fellow, The University of Melbourne Algorithms have become integral to our lives. From social media apps to Netflix, algorithms learn your preferences and prioritise the content you are shown. Google Maps and artificial intelligence are nothing without ...1 hour ago
- Neuroaffirming care values the strengths and differences of autistic people, those with ADHD or othe...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Josephine Barbaro, Associate Professor, Principal Research Fellow, Psychologist, La Trobe University Unsplash We’ve come a long way in terms of understanding that everyone thinks, interacts and experiences the world differently. In the past, autistic people, people with attention deficit hyperactive disorder ...1 hour ago
- ‘Reckless’ kina devaluation spells disaster for PNG, says NomanePNG Post-Courier Papua New Guinea’s deputy opposition leader James Nomane has accused the government of “reckless economic management” that has forced devaluation to manage loan repayments in foreign currency and placate the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Prime Minister James Marape “must stop lying to the people of Papua New Guinea”, ...1 hour ago
- Modernising Census – Stats NZFrom today, members of the public can have their say on what Aotearoa New Zealand’s census could look like in the future. ...2 hours ago
- ‘I do love a good funnysad novel’: Jane Arthur on her favourite books
Welcome to The Spinoff Bookseller Confessional, in which we get to know Aotearoa’s booksellers. This week: Jane Arthur, author of Brown Bird, and former bookseller at Good Books. The book I wish I’d written I have been working on not comparing myself to others. On accepting that what I can ...2 hours ago - RMA Minister rejects Wellington council's bid to remove heritage protections from buildingsCouncil did not provide sufficient evidence to support its reasons for removing the 10 buildings from the Heritage schedule, Chris Bishop says. ...2 hours ago
- War for Wellington: Minister approves sweeping upzoning, rejects heritage changesThe final decision on the Wellington District Plan makes it official: High-density housing is legal across most of Wellington. Housing minister Chris Bishop has announced his decision on the Wellington District Plan, approving a series of amendments to radically upzone most of Wellington, allowing tens of thousands of new townhouses ...2 hours ago
- Bryce Edwards Analysis – Following the political moneyAnalysis by Dr Bryce Edwards – Democracy Project (https://democracyproject.nz) Political scientist, Dr Bryce Edwards. “Follow the money” is the classic directive to journalists trying to understand where power and influence lie in society. In terms of uncovering who influences various New Zealand political parties and governments, it therefore pays to ...3 hours ago
- Free school lunches: Year 7 students and above to shift to alternative modelA new interim delivery model will kick in next year to allow time for a full redesign of the scheme before any more money is dedicated. ...3 hours ago
- Rafah ‘last place of safety’ in Gaza, UN aid boss warnsRNZ News As Israel presses ahead with strikes in Rafah and seizing the Rafah crossing from Egypt, aid agencies are sounding the alarm of a “catastrophic humanitarian situation”. Rafah was “significant” because it was the only part in Gaza that had not been terribly damaged by the conflict, United Nations ...3 hours ago
- Foreign Affairs minister to lead Pacific delegationThe Foreign Affairs minister is heading on a five-stop Pacific tour, which he says will strengthen New Zealand's engagement in the region. ...3 hours ago
- Why we’re fighting to save Te Huia, the Hamilton-Auckland trainWith funding set to be scrapped for the Hamilton-Auckland commuter train, Te Huia enthusiast Georgie Dansey argues for it to be thrown a lifeline. It’s 5.45am and the chain of my crappy old bike falls off slugging up the one hill in Hamilton. I contemplate yeeting the bike into the ...4 hours ago
- Greens Call On Government To Keep Same-day Election Enrolment And VotingOn Radio New Zealand this morning, the Justice Minister stated the Government was considering ending election day enrolments. ...4 hours ago
- Many people are feeling ecological grief. How can we help those whose work puts them at risk?Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Anna Cooke, Honorary Fellow, School of the Environment, The University of Queensland We feel ecological grief when we lose places, species or ecosystems we value and love. These losses are a growing threat to mental health and wellbeing globally. We all see ...4 hours ago
- Revitalizing Toronto’s downtown core after COVID-19 greatly benefits the city and the regionSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Shauna Brail, Associate Professor, Institute for Management & Innovation, University of Toronto A shift to hybrid and remote work continues to affect worker presence in Toronto’s downtown. (Shutterstock) Downtown Toronto, the core of Canada’s largest city, continues to reel from the lingering ...4 hours ago
- Government quiet on costs, building plan for Waikato prison expansionThe extra beds would take longer than the four-years covered in this week's budget announcement to deliver, the Corrections Minister told RNZ. ...5 hours ago
- Chief Electoral Officer Needs To Fall On His SwordResponding to an Auditor-General's report slamming failures in the administration of the 2023 General Election, Taxpayers’ Union Policy and Public Affairs Manager, James Ross, said: ...5 hours ago
- How many productivity apps do I have to use to become more productive?Productivity apps now make up a big chunk of the software market. But do they work? And why do they all have AI integrations? Despite being firmly on the record as a physical planner fan, I sometimes dream of something better than my pretty diary and its scrawled, ugly, interior ...5 hours ago
- Government considers removing election day voter enrolmentJustice Minister Paul Goldsmith says very few countries allow it, and New Zealand should consider changing the rules. ...6 hours ago
- Beehive Need To Lead By ExampleThe Taxpayers’ Union says the Beehive need to lead by example, following reports of more than $50,000 spent upgrading video conferencing equipment and furniture in the Prime Minister’s office. Taxpayers’ Union Campaign Manager, Connor Molloy, ...6 hours ago
- The Spinoff Power List: 50 New Zealanders you need to knowAn objective list of the 50 most powerful people in New Zealand, as judged by the Spinoff Editorial Board. It’s power list season, baby, and we want in on the action. Sure, there’s the rich list and the powerful “c-suite” list and the young people with power (hmmm) but here, ...7 hours ago
- First Nations imprisonment is already at a record high. Unless government policy changes, it will on...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Thalia Anthony, Professor of Law, University of Technology Sydney Shutterstock This article contains information on deaths in custody and the names of deceased people, and describes ongoing colonial violence towards Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people. First Nations people in Australia ...7 hours ago
- Martha isn’t Baby Reindeer’s biggest villain. So why is she painted as such?Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alex Simpson, Senior Lecturer in Criminology, Macquarie University Netflix Baby Reindeer’s phenomenal success has much to do with its writer and lead, Richard Gadd, who plays Donny in a tender semi-autobiographical account of sexual abuse, harassment and stalking. Gadd’s story has ...7 hours ago
- Yes, adults can develop food allergies. Here are 4 types you need to know aboutSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Clare Collins, Laureate Professor in Nutrition and Dietetics, University of Newcastle KarolinaGrabowska/Pexels If you didn’t have food allergies as a child, is it possible to develop them as an adult? The short answer is yes. But the reasons why are much ...7 hours ago
- An outsider on the inside: how Ans Westra created New Zealand’s ‘national photo album’Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Paul Moon, Professor of History, Auckland University of Technology Ans Westra, self-portrait, c. 1963. National Library ref AWM-0705-F They try but invariably fail – those writers who believe they are capable of encapsulating in prose or verse the essence of ...8 hours ago
- How the lessons from Covid-19 could help us prepare for bird fluStewart Sowman-Lund looks at the growing concern around the world in this extract from The Bulletin. To receive The Bulletin in full each weekday, sign up here. What’s all this? When Covid-19 arrived on our shores in early 2020, some argued we were too slow, or crucially, ill-prepared for a pandemic. So ...9 hours ago
- As climate change amplifies urban flooding, here’s how communities can become ‘sponge cities’Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Franco Montalto, Professor of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering and Director, Sustainable Water Resource Engineering Laboratory, Drexel University Water runs into a storm drain in a Los Angeles alley on Aug. 19, 2023, during Tropical Storm Hilary. Citizen of the Planet/Universal Images ...9 hours ago
- Genesis Energy to fire up coal imports, citing increased demand, dwindling gas supplyGenesis Energy is to resume importing coal, as reduced gas supplies and increased demand add to the problems of keeping the lights on. ...9 hours ago
- The Boy in the Water: ‘Someone was struggling at a fence’
The inquest into the death of Gore toddler Lachlan Jones has turned up a new witness who says he saw two teenagers and a small child in a high vis vest in the area where the boy’s body was found the day he died. Lachie’s body was discovered face up ...9 hours ago - Te Pāti Māori comments: 'That kind of language isn't helpful'Political parties have roundly criticised Te Pāti Māori for using words like 'extermination' and 'white supremacy' in the House. ...10 hours ago
- Mental Health Minister Matt Doocey sought advice on ‘social impact bonds’ to fund servicesMinisters have sought advice on 'social impact bonds', which offer a potential return on private investment in public services. ...10 hours ago
- Managed retreat: How do we get out of the way of climate change?"Ad hoc" house buyouts after major disasters cannot continue, the Climate Change Minister says. ...10 hours ago
- Rules for property managers are scrapped. But what’s the worst that could happen?Stories from the tenancy trenches, featuring spider infestations, cupboard rats and same-sex discrimination. Lucy’s brother was living in a damp 1930s building in Mt Eden where “he had to tie the cupboard doors closed so the rats didn’t get in”. Although he shared custody of his six-year-old son, his property ...11 hours ago
- Explainer: What’s the deal with Auckland’s new water deal?Simeon Brown, Chris Luxon, and Wayne Brown climbed into a hole and announced a plan to solve Auckland’s water woes. This is how it’ll work. New Zealand’s pipes are munted. They’re cracked and leaking, and struggling to handle all the extra poos excreted by our rising population. It’s a big, ...11 hours ago
- A long road back to a very long jumpWellington long jumper Phoebe Edwards is back and she’s having fun again. Until this year, Edwards, a top athlete in her teens, had never competed as a senior athlete in New Zealand. In March, the 26-year-old won a national long jump title in a lifetime best of 6.28m after ...11 hours ago
- Daily crossword, Wednesday 8 MayThe post Daily crossword, Wednesday 8 May appeared first on Newsroom. ...11 hours ago
- Persistent Green Party scandals delay caucus resetAfter replacing a fifth of their caucus in just four months, the Greens’ opportunity to reset, reshuffle and refocus on the Government is quickly slipping away The post Persistent Green Party scandals delay caucus reset appeared first on Newsroom. ...11 hours ago
- Coutts’ call prompts urgent board meeting over SailGPDespite Sir Russell Coutts vowing SailGP wouldn’t return to Whakaraupō/Lyttelton Harbour, negotiations over 2025 are ongoing The post Coutts’ call prompts urgent board meeting over SailGP appeared first on Newsroom. ...11 hours ago
- Meet the man behind the Government’s education policyThe parallels between the Government’s education policy and those put forward by researcher Michael Johnston, is raising questions The post Meet the man behind the Government’s education policy appeared first on Newsroom. ...11 hours ago
- ‘We didn’t behave very well in NZ’, says Wakefield heirI knew Taika Waititi quite well when he was a kid. His mother lived in a tall narrow house in Aro St, and my youngest sister had a similar house two doors along. They were both single mums, they each had a son aged seven. Taika and my nephew Stepan ...11 hours ago
- Govt risks another Havelock North by undoing water protectionsOpinion: “As time passes, knowledge of the circumstances of the August 2016 outbreak will fade and its immediate impact will be lost.” This statement is from the 2017 report of the Official Inquiry into the Havelock North campylobacteriosis outbreak. The then National-led government established the inquiry after the outbreak left ...11 hours ago
- Where to next for the Aukus ruckus?Opinion: Nicholas Khoo looks at two key points in the high-stakes foreign policy pact debate – and asks if NZ can engage with as little drama as possible. The post Where to next for the Aukus ruckus? appeared first on Newsroom. ...11 hours ago
- Newsroom daily quiz, Wednesday 8 MayLoading…(function(i,s,o,g,r,a,m){var ql=document.querySelectorAll('A,DIV,A[data-quiz],DIV[data-quiz]'); if(ql){if(ql.length){for(var k=0;k<ql.length;k++){ql[k].id='quiz-embed-'+k;ql[k].href="javascript:var i=document.getElementById('quiz-embed-"+k+"');try{qz.startQuiz(i)}catch(e){i.start=1;i.style.cursor='wait';i.style.opacity='0.5'};void(0);"}}};i['QP']=r;i[r]=i[r]||function(){(i[r].q=i[r].q||[]).push(arguments)},i[r].l=1*new Date();a=s.createElement(o),m=s.getElementsByTagName(o)[0];a.async=1;a.src=g;m.parentNode.insertBefore(a,m)})(window,document,'script','https://take.quiz-maker.com/3012/CDN/quiz-embed-v1.js','qp'); Got a good quiz question? Send Newsroom your questions. The post Newsroom daily quiz, Wednesday 8 May appeared first on Newsroom. ...11 hours ago
- ‘Think fast and act slowly’ is failing big projectsOpinion: ‘Reference-class forecasting’ is at the heart of improving pricing a project and identifying the expected timeframe but it doesn’t appear to be in use here The post ‘Think fast and act slowly’ is failing big projects appeared first on Newsroom. ...11 hours ago
- A controversial driving exam – put to the testWhat do a sombrero in Argentina and cognitive driving tests have in common? Don’t worry, we’re not setting up a bad joke. Hinengaro Clinic dementia clinician Gregory Winkelman has the answer on today’s episode of The Detail. “We ask a patient’s spouse or son or daughter: If you went to ...11 hours ago
- From Gallipoli to Gaza: remembering the Anzacs not as a ‘coming of age’ tale but as a lesson for...ANALYSIS: By Olli Hellmann, University of Waikato When New Zealanders commemorate Anzac Day today on April 25, it’s not only to honour the soldiers who lost their lives in World War I and subsequent conflicts, but also to mark a defining event for national identity. The battle of Gallipoli against ...13 hours ago
- NZ local council calls for immediate ceasefire in Gaza as strikes hitBy Robin Martin, RNZ News reporter A New Zealand local authority, Whanganui District Council, has passed a motion calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, condemnation of all acts of violence and terror against civilians on both sides of the conflict and the immediate return of hostages. It comes as ...14 hours ago
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There can be only one explanation for such accurate predictions:
Science!Witchcraft.Those idots don’t even know what witchcraft is …. hang on I take it back.
They are trying to obfuscate their own Evil Withcraft.
He turned me into a newt!
…I got better.
Yep, I’ve been following Nate during this election with great interest – if anyone’s interested, follow his rss feed.
Cheers ..
Nate is the anti Fox news.
Those guys were still trying to say that at least Romney had won the popular vote when only a quarter of California’s votes has been reported in …
Obama is currently winning the popular vote by 60.6 million to 57.8 million …
I think we’re going to have to rethink the old addage “Lies, damned lies and statistics” because this guy seems to be proving the worth of the field…
That’s not what the adage refers to.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lies,_damned_lies,_and_statistics
It’s referring to the fact that lies that pretend to be statistics are the worst and hardest to debunk of all three types. 😉 Nate Silver’s statistics were honest.
Yes. Matthew nails it correctly.
It’s very easy to dress up a lie as data and statistics. Sadly far too many people have no real idea how these things work, and how very powerfully statistics can extract real and valuable meaning from difficult, noisy and incomplete information.
In the real world data is very rarely clean, complete and noise-free. There are almost always other variables in play that taint or skew the raw data. Good statistics when done well (as this guy does ) can yield remarkable and powerful insights.
Unfortunately it’s also very easy for people to hijack this power to lend credibility to their lies by dressing them up as statistics. And because most people quite understandably have little to no skill in the subject, makes them very hard to debunk effectively. Most people just shrug their shoulders and mutter the ‘damn lies’ line to themselves.
Perhaps because he isnt manipulating stats he is collecting them and genuinely analysing them for numerical not ploitical trends. As long as people like farrar, hooten and mccarten are relied upon for political analysis we can hardly expect a scientific outcome.
Only three or four states actually ever change hands, right? And they aren’t independent variables – if many Nevadans swing left, then so might Coloradans and Floridese. So it’s maybe more like a 1:5 chance of getting a prediction right.
With 57 million blogs on WordPress alone, I’d think that a very large number of random bloggers would get the election result right in every state, if they bothered to make a call.
One of the things Nate does is to repeatedly re-run many models, each tweaked to cover various possibilities, and his ‘predictions’ are the aggregates of the results. The published photo I saw was of him sitting in what looked like a suburban hut with a laptop – although it may have been connected to a server via fibreoptic, who knows. I don’t know what program he was using, but it is probably a combination of baseball number crunching experience and contemporary computing power ..
I have to give credit to someone on this blog who put me onto it. Can’t remember who ..
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/07/stay-tuned/
“Hello, welcome to Close-Up Sunday Breakfast on TVNZ.
Today we’re going to discuss facts and figures. Do they matter?
Here to tell us are some Experts, all of whom you know well, because they’re appearing in all media every week. There’s 1) a washed-up former MP who lost his seat, 2) a grumpy old git who copys his column from Wikipedia, and 3) a token woman who likes to say “Look”.
So panel, how about Nate Silver? Worth a whole lot more than anything you ever have to say, wouldn’t you agree?
1) “Well, I’ve got a feeling about this election, a real sense that something is happening, and it’s come fresh from my arse. So don’t bother me with all these ivory tower numbers – get back in the real world!”
2) “At the end of the day, who can you believe? Statistics, at the end of the day, are just something spouted by bloggers. I remember Muldoon once said to me …
3) “Look …
(audience chucks coffee cup at TV, goes back to bed)
(audience chucks coffee cup at TV, goes back to bed)
It’s true. I can vouch for it.
That show worsens my hangover. Which is saying something.
for Gobsmacked NOT the show
Holy shit, you totally called Firstline’s coverage this morning. Some dude excusing the blatantly biased coverage/spinning of polls in the US as being about Nate Silver being some kind of magically advanced wizard, and “oh people just aren’t used to treating statistics like this” … as opposed to, you know, corporations with obvious agendas telling their anchors how to talk down polls they don’t like.
That’s about right ..
Imagine what key would have said if he had been wearing red
Is there a Nate Silver type person In New Zealand???
He is brilliant.
Once upon a time. His name was Marty G.
Watch Jon Stewart Anoint Nate Silver ‘God’ !
[video]
http://www.thenation.com/blog/171138/watch-jon-stewart-anoint-nate-silver-god
For the psephologists and election junkies
An extended video interview with Nate Silver.
http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/wed-october-17-2012/exclusive—nate-silver-extended-interview-pt–1