Tim Watkin is wrong

21 comments on “Tim Watkin is wrong ”

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1. Tom Gould 1

   8 April 2014 at 11:48 am

   The number of MPs each individual party has is completely irrelevant. What matters is whether an individual MP is able to convince the Governor General that he or she commands the confidence in the House of a majority of MPs. Simple as that. Whether confidence is pledged by the MPs of a single party or those of a dozen parties is of no consequence. Under MMP, 50 per cent plus one MP wins. End of story.
2. Blue 2

   8 April 2014 at 12:46 pm

   Most journalists seem completely incapable of considering the election in any other terms than a straight National v Labour horserace.

   I predict that they will all end up with egg on their faces when National comes in at, say 41%, doesn’t have enough friends to form a Government, and we end up with a Labour/Green/NZ First Government.

   I look forward to the acrobatic justifications from all the idiot talking heads who’ve called it for National already.
   • Rob 2.1

     8 April 2014 at 2:07 pm

     I think you mean that

     Most voters seem completely incapable of considering the election in any other terms than a straight National v Labour horserace.

     Most voters do only vote for Labour and National, for many of these voters the parties that poll less than 15% just make things a whole lot more complex.
     • Blue 2.1.1

       8 April 2014 at 2:31 pm

       No, I think voters are more sophisticated than you give them credit for. The ones in Epsom and Ohariu certainly understand the special power they have been given to pervert the course of the electoral system.

       I know people who always vote for minor parties because they understand how MMP works and want a minor coalition partner to ‘keep the major party honest’.

       It’s not voters who have trouble with MMP – it’s journalists who struggle to fit the system into their preordained ‘winner/loser’ narrative.
       • Ant 2.1.1.1

         8 April 2014 at 3:43 pm

         Also, if you look at the Maori electorates you begin to get a picture of a populace who appear to ‘get’ MMP pretty well. It seems like this affliction of not understanding MMP just affects journos.
3. Philj 3

   8 April 2014 at 1:11 pm

   xox
   We have very few quality journalists in NZ Mainstream Media. Getting less by the day. RNZ is heading the way of TVNZ, trivia, once over lightly Mora. I Will tell you what to think Ryan. I hope to be proved wrong. Wallace has promise…fingers crossed.
4. ghostwhowalksnz 4

   8 April 2014 at 1:17 pm

   Even our close neighbors Australia have had governments formed where the largest party wasnt in government.
   Since the 1950s there have been 4 times when ‘ Labor’ have had more seats than the Liberals but they havent been the government.

   As well, in 1951 they both had 51 seats. Of course Liberals have the Country party, now called Nationals as coalition partners.

   1998 Lab 67 Lib 64. Howard was PM

   1969 Lab 59 Lib 46 Gorton

   1961 Lab 60 Lib 45 Menzies

   1954 Lab 57 Lib 47 Menzies

   The conservative parties allways run separate candidates and only recently in Queensland have they combined as Liberal- Nationals

   The method of electing Mps is soley by electorate but the method of forming an Australian government is only ever based on who has the numbers to form a coalition in the house.

   Its absurd to think NZ voters would be any different to Australians in accepting the major party didnt win the most seats
5. DS 5

   8 April 2014 at 1:27 pm

   There’s even a New Zealand First Past the Post precedent for the single biggest party not governing: in 1911 Reform got more seats than the Liberals, but the Liberals won an eighth term with the support of independents. Of course, the Government fell the following year, but the point is that there is no “single biggest party must govern” precedent.

   It happened in the UK (again FPP) in 1923. Tories win most seats, but the first Labour Government comes in, propped up by the (now third party) Liberals.
6. srylands 6

   8 April 2014 at 2:30 pm

   Yes I agree he is wrong. Labour could definitely win.

   The most likely scenario is that Labour/Greens will get about 41%, National 45% and Winston 5.x %. Winston will decide who forms the Government.

   Alternatively, NZ First will get 4.x %, Dunne gets 1 seat, ACT gets 1 or 2 seats, Maori Party gets 1 seat and in that scenario National wins.

   Sure there are other scenarios but those two are the most realistic.

   A scenario that has Labour/Greens over 50% is unlikely.
   • Rumour Willis 6.1

     8 April 2014 at 2:53 pm

     “ACT gets […] 2 seats”

     lolololol
   • Lanthanide 6.2

     8 April 2014 at 6:48 pm

     If MP gets 1 seat, it’s highly likely Mana would end up on 2 or maybe even 3. Which potentially changes the situation.
7. fisiani 7

   8 April 2014 at 4:38 pm

   ACT is the fastest growing party in parliament. At this rate they could have 4 MP’s
   • McFlock 7.1

     8 April 2014 at 4:56 pm

     3 unclebrothers and a banjo player.
     • Tracey 7.1.1

       8 April 2014 at 5:18 pm

       lolololololol
   • Lanthanide 7.2

     8 April 2014 at 6:46 pm

     ACT is the party likely to soon have 0 MPs in parliament. I would think that would make them the fastest shrinking.
8. Andrew Geddis 8

   8 April 2014 at 7:09 pm

   Ben,

   I think you’ve fundamentally misunderstood Tim’s point. What I take him to be saying is:

   (1) The “it’s never happened before” point is not that this proves it can never happen. Rather, it’s that it is hard to motivate your ground troops to go out and bust a gut for you if it looks like you’re trailing so far behind the opponent you measure yourself against. And for all you may tell yourself (and others) “once the Greens are in the mix, it’s neck-and-neck”, the constant message that “National is 15% (or whatever) ahead” wears you down. So the longer the gap continues, the harder it gets to generate the momentum (and enthusiasm) needed to close it.

   (Of course, there is a way Labour could try and overcome this. They could link themselves publicly and continuously with the Greens as a “Left Bloc”, referring constantly to the two parties as one political force to offset National’s apparently commanding poll lead. But … they won’t.)

   (2) However, the main point is that Tim thinks, based upon having seen Peters up close and personal, that if Labour is still 15-something percent behind National on election night, he will not feel able to support them in Government. The public perception that Labour has “lost” and National has “won” will be so strong that he will feel obligated to support National. So given that for Labour to lead the next Government they’re probably going to need Peters in a King-maker role, that’s a real problem for them.

   Now, Tim may be wrong about that second point. But I think he is probably right. I’d also note that both he and I have both posted on a number of occasions busting the myth that “the biggest party should be allowed to govern”. But that’s different from saying that the gap between Labour and National just “doesn’t matter”.
   • Sacha 8.1

     9 April 2014 at 7:58 am

     “the opponent you measure yourself against”

     another part of the mindset problem, yes. Sooner we flush the remaining FPP dinosaurs from Labour’s backrooms and caucus the better.
9. Dave 9

   8 April 2014 at 9:10 pm

   Well seems like labour still has a mathematical chance of winning then, even if national doesn’t have some catastrophic collapse.
   • Colonial Viper 9.1

     8 April 2014 at 11:23 pm

     Labour, supposedly representing the economic interests of the numerous bottom 90% of households, is on 32%.

     National, supposedly representing the economic interests of the rarefied top 10% of households, is on 43%.

     Talk about total disconnect.
     • Sacha 9.1.1

       9 April 2014 at 7:59 am

       They’re selling hope better, whether or not it’s rational.
10. George 10

    10 April 2014 at 12:42 pm

    A plausible explanation. Except it won’t be Holly Walker and Jan Logie filling Government benches. It will be Tracey Martin and Asenati Lole Taylor.

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