A Green surge and fighting for the election

Written By: - Date published: 6:05 am, September 27th, 2023 - 31 comments
Categories: election 2023, greens, james shaw - Tags:

I wrote a month ago about the Greens polling at 12%, which would give them 15 Green MPs, up from their current 10. It looked to me that the political courage of the Greens is working.

Unlike the chaos of the 2017 election that followed the political courage of Metiria Turei, this election has both courage and presentation of competence. The policies are solid and the MPs are putting out the message over and over and over again: vote Green for climate action, environmental protection, ending inequality.

Their key social policy of a wealth tax to pay for social security has been polling exceptionally well, and the Greens’ tax cuts are better for more people than National’s.

The Newshub-Reid poll on Monday had the Greens on 14.2%. This would give them 18 MPs. You can see who those MPs would be here. Astonishing and exciting. James Shaw sensibly tweeted, pointing immediately to what the fight is for,

The Greens on over 14% (& 18 MPs) is a really big deal, but it’s not the time to be complacent.

Party vote Green for:
Income Guarantee
Fair tax system
Free dental for ALL
Climate action
Warm homes
Ocean protection

While the MSM and politicos are busy focussing on NZ First, the left can just get on with winning the votes needed. As One Anonymous Bloke pointed out,

Reid Research polling for the 2020 election underestimated the Greens final result by 1.6% They underestimated Labour by 4.2%.

none

NZ First is only just above the 5% threshold and is coming under fire for the being the kingmaker of chaos. The difficulty of polling in the Māori seats means we probably don’t know how Te Pāti Māori is doing. The Greens sometimes pick up and extra seat on the specials.

The point here is that we haven’t lost yet. There’s a temptation to throw in the towel, but many have been saying for months now that it’s going to be a very close election. What if it comes down several thousand votes or a couple of MPs and it was our willingness to hope and do the mahi that gets us over the line?

I also wrote a post a month ago about not giving up. The two week election period opens in five days, next Monday. Now is the time to up the ante.

Don’t share defeatist bollocks. It tells swing, undecided and habitual non-voters to not bother voting left.

I feel for Labourites, politics is brutal and Labour’s drop and the chaotic, depressing policy churn on the right is depressing af. I think Hipkins has made a grave error in continuing to rule out a wealth tax when a large number of voters support it.

But all is not lost. The worst case scenario here is that the left lose the election but Labour, the Greens and Te Pāti Māori form a strong, potent opposition for the next three years and then win in 2026. Best case is that we win now! This is win/win for the next 19 days: let’s do everything we can to get us into the strongest position possible.

Things we can do below, and even just talking to whānau, friends and colleagues and reminding them why it matters and that voting makes a difference will help.

Triple the Vote! Join the movement to get non-voters to vote, and sign up to be reminded once voting starts

Volunteer or donate,

Te Pāti Māori: get involved or donate

The Greens: get involved or donate.

Labour: get involved or donate

31 comments on “A Green surge and fighting for the election ”

  • Comments are now closed

  1. Tony Veitch 1
    27 September 2023 at 6:34 am

    As I've mentioned before on this forum, I speak with an entirely random cross section of the public, including a large number of young people.

    Accepting there is no scientific basis for my conclusions (though probably as relevant as some opinion polls) the vast majority are concerned about climate change and will be party voting Green or TPM.

    It sure as hell nowhere near over!

  2. gsays 2
    27 September 2023 at 7:15 am

    Along the lines of not sharing defeatist bollocks, consider dropping the snarky excluding language. By that I mean 'cooker' to describe anyone that has a view that isn't vanilla, mainstream.

    This is a remnant of the covid response. Most of y'all generally got what you wanted in regards to vaccines, mandates etc. These responses had victims some of whom are still trying to get back to 'normal'. This seemingly constant refrain thrown at anyone from the full-on tinfoil hat wearer through to anyone questioning a narrative is unattractive and keeps the divide open.

    Being part of the left used to mean making efforts to be inclusive.

    • weka 2.1
      27 September 2023 at 7:19 am

      Well said grays.

    • PsyclingLeft.Always 2.2
      27 September 2023 at 8:42 am

      Most of y'all generally got what you wanted in regards to vaccines, mandates etc.

      Especially those that, you know, didnt die…because despite the few…NZ did look after the rest of us.

      And you raised the "cooker" in this post !

      • gsays 2.2.1
        27 September 2023 at 8:45 am

        Reread the first line in my comment.

        It appears context is lost on you sometimes.

        • PsyclingLeft.Always 2.2.1.1
          27 September 2023 at 8:48 am

          Context ? From you? You wrote it. I replied.

          • weka 2.2.1.1.1
            27 September 2023 at 8:58 am

            I also think you missed the point and would encourage you to go back and read gsays comments again in the context of a post about how to encourage people to vote left. Think about undecided and non-voters reading this thread.

    • James Simpson 2.3
      27 September 2023 at 10:48 am

      Exactly.

      We need absolutely every vote we can get in this campaign, so expressly excluding voters by calling them derogatory names does what for our chances of winning? We seem to be picking fights and enemies for no apparent reason. Just look at the MS post from yesterday as an example of that.

      The right doesn't use language like some of our side does. Their policies attack certain people but they are better sales people trying to convince everyone that their destructive policies will in fact make their lives better. We can learn something about the use of language from political sales people like Key and Luxon.

      • gsays 2.3.1
        27 September 2023 at 12:18 pm

        It speaks to the observation that the right looks for converts, the left looks for traitors.

        Worryingly we are following the U.S. example where the Democrats have largely pivoted away from the blue collar voters and serves the liberals and the PMC while the Republicans pick up the disenfranchised vote.

        The 'sneery superior' attitude is becoming more prevalent here too.

        • weka 2.3.1.1
          27 September 2023 at 1:11 pm

          good opportunity for the left to strengthen the Greens and TPM, both of whom understand class and are working on socioeconomic and justice issues.

        • Drowsy M. Kram 2.3.1.2
          27 September 2023 at 2:29 pm

          I don't feel superior, and don't think they're Labour traitors. From my PoV, some have lost their way (not very Green of me, I know) – but maybe they've actually found their way, in which case I wish them well (from a distance.)

          Suppose an individual believes something with his whole heart; suppose further that he has taken irrevocable actions because of it. Finally suppose he is presented with evidence, unequivocal and undeniable evidence that his belief is wrong. What will happen? The individual will frequently emerge not only unshaken but even more convinced of the truth of his beliefs than ever before. Indeed he may even show a new fervor for converting other people to his view. – Brooke Gladstone

          No less true of me. And this "new fervor" is manifest in new (and not-so-new) political parties. But, as appealing as some of their policies might seem, I can't find it in my heart to wish these parties (or NAct) well – my whole heart is elsewhere.

          https://democracynz.org/ourpolicy/ [2022]

          https://www.freedomsnz.org.nz/our-policies [2022]

          https://leightonbakerparty.co.nz/about/principles/ [2023]

          https://www.nc.org.nz/policy [2011]

          https://nnparty.co.nz/policies/ [2022]

          https://newzeal.org.nz/priorities [2020]

          https://nzloyal.org.nz/pages/health [2023]

          • gsays 2.3.1.2.1
            27 September 2023 at 5:14 pm

            What to do when you've found your way but it goes against the zeitgeist? For example, the cause of so much of the harm and injustice in our country can be sheeted back to the neo-liberal mindset of both government and the public service.

            Covid aside, some of the motivation for some of the Wellies protestors was exasperation at situations beyond their control. Pollies making decisions to satisfy corporations (Marsden Point closure to appease Ampol), the running down of funding for FENZ to the extent that asbestos was found in sleepimg quarters and in the oxygen tank refilling room.

            When there is a protest action made manifest (Parliament ground occupation) why not join in? To this day, any talk of it gets a sneery, dismissive, derogatory reaction. When it is coming from well placed folk from the Labour party (Cookers of the world unite), it sends a strong signal to the choir who are more than happy to chime in.

            It's not attractive. I don't want to vote for it.

            • Drowsy M. Kram 2.3.1.2.1.1
              27 September 2023 at 5:50 pm

              Good points – I've reached a stage in my life where I believe that many things, including some values, views and actions abhorrent to me, are beyond my ability to influence, let alone control in any meaningful way.

              I'll still rail against them here, but must take care not to let my disdain and/or disgust consume me. Frequent self-reflection offers a modicum of protection by way of trend detection. Live, and let live.

  3. Patricia Bremner 3
    27 September 2023 at 8:58 am

    It is not over until we have done our best

    to show how the big money wants to buy the election

    by repeating over and over help the environment help people

    by showing respect for the lefts members

    by donating having a hoarding reminding family and friends to vote.

    by sharing Gerald Otto Nick Rockel and other left blogs.

    by sharing the policies of the left.

    there is a group of undecided people watching and waiting.

    keep hopeful, the opposition's true intent is beginning to show in an unflattering way.

  4. Mika 4
    27 September 2023 at 10:52 am

    As someone who has been turned off by the Greens' identity politics over the last couple of election cycles, I have been impressed by Marama this election campaign. When she focuses on economic and class-first politics, she is amazing. If the Greens could put a little space between them and the crazier wings of the culture wars, they could be the left party we so desperately need.

    • Barfly 4.2
      27 September 2023 at 11:54 am

      I haven't watched more than a few seconds of he political debates due to the danger of harming my TV or PC. If Marama is performing well in her role that's great – the earlier business of reclaiming the word "cunt" and flatly blaming white hetero males for all domestic violence as well as whatever the hell was going on with the trans v Posie Parker stuff has left me feeling pretty 'meh' about Voting for the Green Party this election – I will still vote and I will vote left just not sure where my tiny contribution will exactly land.

      • gsays 4.2.1
        27 September 2023 at 12:12 pm

        "…not sure where my tiny contribution will exactly land."

        Te Pati Maori perhaps?

        What's good for Maori is good for all of us, with the added bonus of them not being captured by Neo-Liberalism.

        It's just occured to me that neo liberalism is an economic colonisation.

      • Grey Area 4.2.2
        27 September 2023 at 8:16 pm

        I watched about one minute of the 3News "debate" to hear Hipkins give a sensible answer to Gower's question about a trying to stop a 13-year robber running out of a dairy to hear Luxon say something like "absolutely", and then continue his usual dribble, and turned it off.

        Likewise about Davidson. How the hell is she No1 on the GP list? Oh that's right …

        Those Greens. I think the same as Chris Trotter in his Bowalley Road blog:

        Delirious Hatred: The Dystopic Tendencies of Twenty-First Century Progressivism.

        "The cynicism of the Greens is particularly galling. As the election looms ever closer, the party’s dominant ultra-progressive faction has been careful to remove the most off-putting of their policies from the party’s shop-front window. Barely tolerated by Green activists for most of the past three years, James Shaw has been thrust forward to sell the party’s popular and genuinely progressive policies to the electorate. Unfortunately, everybody who understands just how radical the Greens have become, also knows that the moment the votes are counted Shaw will be pushed aside and the party’s ultra-progressive priorities reclaimed from the backstage area and reinstated.

        "According to this sort of progressive politician, the liberation of the oppressed cannot be achieved if their would-be liberators are open and honest about their intentions. Just look at the trouble that Marama Davidson’s frank identification of “White Cis Males” as the ultimate cause of societal violence got the Greens into. In a world where White Cis Males still hold sway, such frankness is self-defeating. The trick, they say, is to keep all these progressive truths safe in one’s heart, while telling those not ready to hear them a pack of lies."

        Trust these re-focused social issues and climate crisis Greens? Yeah, nah. Sounds cynical? Yep. I’ve been let down by the Green Party too many times.

        Still undecided.

        Probably swallow a dead rat and vote for the Labour electorate candidate because he is a cabinet minster and seems to have done some good stuff on the ground, but in the vote that matters? Probably TPM.

    • Drowsy M. Kram 4.3
      27 September 2023 at 12:03 pm

      yes Party Vote Green smiley https://www.greens.org.nz/ending_poverty_together

      Kiwis can enrol any time up to and including election day, but best not to leave it to the last minute – help is available if you need it.

      https://vote.nz/enrolling/enrol-or-update/enrol-or-update-online/

      What other methods are there to enrol?

      If you don't have regular access to the internet, or the right identification details (New Zealand driver licence, New Zealand passport or RealMe ID) to accompany an online enrolment, you can still enrol in other ways.

      You can enrol or update your details by filling in an enrolment form. Call 0800 36 76 56 or freetext your name and address to 3676 to have one sent to you. You can pick up an enrolment form at a Citizen's Advice Bureau, most public libraries, and Electoral Commission offices.

    • Mike the Lefty 4.4
      27 September 2023 at 3:36 pm

      Yes, so far the Greens have campaigned strongly. They have gone after the voters who believe that climate change is the biggest problem we have to face and judging by the polls they seem to be getting the message across.

      I read somewhere that there are about 78,000 overseas voters registered. The Greens traditionally do well in the ex pat vote, so if this trend continues it looks quite good for them.

  5. Barfly 5
    27 September 2023 at 12:11 pm

    I see the National Party punching down on beneficiaries yet again

    https://www.1news.co.nz/2023/09/26/more-sanctions-for-unemployed-beneficiaries-under-national/

    https://www.1news.co.nz/2023/09/26/nationals-benefit-sanctions-plan-cruel-dehumanising-greens/

    In the past National Party promises of sanctions , crackdowns and punishments have had very negative effects on my mental health however this election as I will turn 65 less then 2 months after the vote I find myself feeling pretty much immune to these threats.

    IMO – I believe that the National Party's repeated and ongoing use of contemptible threats against the most vulnerable in New Zealand has lead, is leading to and will continue to cost peoples lives by driving them to suicide. I despise these foul people.

    • Patricia Bremner 5.1
      27 September 2023 at 1:38 pm

      100% Barflyyes

    • mary_a 5.2
      27 September 2023 at 2:02 pm

      Well said Barfly (5)yes

    • Tiger Mountain 5.3
      27 September 2023 at 2:23 pm

      In the 21st century surely punitive, sadistic, welfare systems and (deserving/undeserving poor concepts) are just so outdated. Time for a Basic Income for all citizens via IRD, with abatement by tax as you earn more. Drop the stigma.

      The old Nazi appropriated slogan Arbeit macht frei “Work will set you free” remains offensive when delivered by highly paid bureaucrats, politicians and various capitalists.

      Unemployment is not a moral failure it is an intended feature of capitalist society as others have pointed to today–to put downward force on wages and working class organisation.

  6. Tricledrown 6
    27 September 2023 at 2:11 pm

    Nationals bene bashing is dividing the rich vs poor.while they cut minimum wage rises and Union negotiating better pays .Most will be worse off under Nationals tax cuts for the well off and handouts to the ultra wealthy who have made $ billions out of the pandemic while everyone else has done it tough and are still doing it tough.

  7. UncookedSelachimorpha 7
    28 September 2023 at 1:40 am

    " I think Hipkins has made a grave error in continuing to rule out a wealth tax when a large number of voters support it. "

    Exactly. 75% of Labour supporters wanted one, and he told them to go jump.

    In the circles I move in – wealth inequality seems a much more important issue than climate change etc (not saying that is the right way to think, just is what I see). Probably a classic case of not worrying about things a year from now, when you are struggling to survive this week. Great to have both TPM and the Greens offering some real, positive, alternatives.

    • That_guy 7.1
      28 September 2023 at 8:43 am

      This specifically is why I want the Greens / TPM to do well and for Labour to be taught a lesson. Mostly I want Hipkins gone. He's a nice guy, I'm sure, but if he rules out a wealth tax while he is PM, then he needs to be not PM.

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