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About the latest poll

Written By: - Date published: 8:42 pm, March 16th, 2021 - 45 comments
Categories: election 2020, jacinda ardern, Judith Collins, labour, national, polls, uncategorized - Tags:

Slightly late sorry.  It has been busy lately …

The latest One News Colmar Brunton Poll is very comforting for the left.  Labour is down from its stratospheric heights of 53% to 49%.  It scored 50% in the 2020 election.

National is up 2% to 27%, dead cat bounce territory.  The Greens are up 1%, well done.

The aspect of the poll that has attracted the most attention is the preferred Prime Minister figures.

These were presented as a shock horror Jacinda’s support has plunged.  But the undecided figure went from 13% to 27%.  Most of them are probably still supportive of Jacinda but have exercised the prerogative of not committing.

The funny thing is that the party support is presented as a percentage of committed votes but the preferred Prime Minister results are not.

I would not read much if anything into it.  And if the Hosking/Herald/Newstalk ZB/Soper blitzkrieg on Ardern over the past couple of weeks had not had an effect then we should immediately declare the people’s republic of Aotearoa and get on with building a Socialist nirvana.

Collins is also down.  She shedded a third of her support.  But for the lack of a coherent alternative she would be toast by now.

It is disappointing that the spin being applied to this result is a crash in support for Ardern.  Labour and Ardern are still in the position where Labour can still rule as a majority Government in an MMP environment.  These are spectacularly interesting times …

45 comments on “About the latest poll ”

  1. Chris T 1

    Kind of to be expected when the government basically doesn't do anything.

    It is like the dude sitting in the middle of the boat too scared to make any movement, in case they annoy one side.

    Living your life based on the safest perceived status quo tends to bite people in the arse in the end though.

    • Drowsy M. Kram 1.1

      Absolutely; I give them another five-and-a-half years max smiley

    • Muttonbird 1.2

      The government has done a lot. Doing first class Covid-19 pandemic response is not easy. This government has done better than almost all others in terms of health and economic outcomes.

      Of course the best is still not good enough for some people. Presumably they would prefer a middling response in health and economic outcomes so that we didn't stand out so much. So that we wouldn't get above out station.

      I would love to know why some people want Aotearoa to fail.

      • Chris T 1.2.1

        We are in an extremely lucky position in an extremely lucky isolated place on the map, with an extremely lucky low population density, and they still managed to cock up the quarantine multiple times.

        Have the nurses got to see their kids yet, or do they have to wait another year while the stage shows use the hotels?

        • McFlock

          Luckiest factor was having leadership prepapred to make the hard call as soon as possible.

          Not sure juco would have had the guts to do it.

          • Chris T

            It is a bit of a "what if?", but would imagine they would have done the same thing, given the advice from officials would have been the same.

            • McFlock

              The doesn't seem to match her rhetoric over the past year.

              Complaining about SI level 2 in September.

              Doing the old "get community opinions" in August (Nats mean the business and farming community when they say that).

              Also in August: kiwis shouldn't be such scaredy-cats about opening the borders. August.

              Never missing an opportunity to demand exemptions or looser restrictions.

              Maybe she'd have acted differently if she had been elected, and all that and more was just dishonest politicking. The angle for opening up seemed pretty consistent in the search, though.

            • Anker

              Absolute bull shit Chris and you know it. National flipped flopped all over the place on Covid. Since when have they ever put health above the economy. Can you imagine Bridges standing up at those media briefings telling people to stay home and be kind? Mueller? They used the pandemic crisis as an opportunity to point score.

              I have to say Collins is at least now being selective with her criticism.

              if you think Bridges would have got us through this once in 100 years global crisis your dreaming. Remember he only takes orders from his wife. I imagine Bloomfield et al wouldn’t even rank in the top 20.

              so have a great day Chris T in level one

          • Foreign Waka

            McFlock, NZ is an island. To put an island under quarantine is easy as, truly. Try Europe or Africa etc. if you want to prove any politicians mettle.

            And it is absolutely right, this government had their eyes off the ball for a very long time now and many substantial indicators are worse than ever before. The neglect of major issues like infrastructure, housing, poverty, income levels, human rights, health sector etc….basically all those issues a government is elected for to look after, imagine that (sarc). I don't even want to touch money printing, aka monetary easing and giving 16 billion dollar to all the shareholders in the world. Now we are being "blackmailed" by the tourist operators to open the border despite not being vaccinated until the end of the year, one can only hope. Those who will enter the country and are will be carriers, so you better get prepared for an other print the cash session to tie you over an easy lockdown.

            Sorry, I am all for social justice, access equality and living in peace and being able to participate in society. So far I don't feel it. I work like never before and don't get to the point to say "lucky me" because its below minimum when looking at hours spend vs paid. Inflation is way higher than anybody wants to admit thanks to putting fridges and cars into the mix to satisfy the banks (yeah right I buy one every week) and now the city councils in all major centers will increase rates by double figures as we have supported in the last 20 years the snouts in the trough. I bet this does not feature in the inflation numbers either. We are being slowly bled dry with ever increasing demands on those who actually still paying taxes (not the recipients of the billions). This is unsustainable and I am sure many will start to noticed by now. Except those who do the aderlass of cause.

            • Incognito

              Iceland and Ireland are islands too. Maybe it is not as easy to “put an island under quarantine” as you think it is and maybe there’s a little more to it, yes?

            • McFlock

              Great Britain is an island.

              NZ is an archipelago.

              Maybe it's population? Vietnam is not an island. Nor is China (if you think Vietnam is too sunny).

              Economic and social policies here need improvement. But when I look at Europe and the USA regarding covid, I do think "lucky me" for living in a country with competent leadership.

              • Incognito

                Great Britain is not just an island.

                It is the Centre of the World, since 1884.

                Please keep up.

        • Muttonbird

          It's cute you are suddenly concerned about nurses. Bless you.

          • Chris T

            Someone has to be.

            It isn't like the govt is.

            You didn't comment on their situation btw?

            • Anker

              I am completely concerned about about all health professionals. I am not sure why you bring them up in this context though. Nz nurses c/p with their colleagues overseas have been remarkably unscathed. Those working at miq choose to do so. The poor sods in the UK who work in icu likely have very limited options. Many over there have caught Covid and died eg a NZ nurse working there. Seeing what those nurses are seeing opens them up to PTSD.

              btw, I have nothing but utter respect and admiration for our MIQ nurses. They have saved our bacon. I have previously posted this.

        • Craig Glen Eden

          Given successive Governments have totally ignored Public health nursing services and work force this Government has done well.
          Quarantine facilities management with not having a ready trained workforce to manage it are not easy to set up and its certainly not a quick job.
          Essentially you need facilities, professional nursing, medical staff and security. In case you haven’t noticed pretty well every country in the world is cocking up on a daily basis.

          We know what National would have done. Pretend to be tough and completely closed the boarders, no people returning, no goods, nothing, shut the boarders totally apparently.
          But then when businesses moaned as they are they would have made out they were being pragmatic business people opened the boarders and covid would have spread and we would be a cot case right now.

          • KJT

            As National couldn't make up their minds from one minute to the next, about borders, they would have given into the business lobby and had both Covid and a recession, like Johnson and Trump.

            Agree about the health work force though.
            Years of training in being underfunded and under pressure has paid off. Sarc!

            • I Feel Love

              When it's going well, "NZ is an island" when mistakes are made "it's this useless govts fault".

              • Foreign waka

                I am always astounded how critique less everybody is of the government. It is every citizen's duty to scrutinize and see things for what they are, looking to improve things for the next generation. I am not seeing anything has been done in the last 4 years that would have set the ground work for: Housing – it is an issue of mega proportions, people swim in poo, pipes that are vital to a functioning city/town are so neglected that we are going to see costs put on average working people that will bring you to tears. Farmers get away with polluting fresh water that is also pumped at astronomical amounts out of the ground. Poverty, issues with sufficient nutrition for the low paid, unemployed and elderly. The health system sorts patience by age and whether they can hold on a day longer, maternity services are totally underfunded, gangs take over towns, etc. etc. The very basics that make a society function are forgotten. It was possible to take a fast decision to give 16 billions to the rich, but to give the middle class and poor a standard of living…oh well, there is an issue here and a problem there and we need a select committee and maybe after 12 months we find a consultant to help with the solution. We are content just saying, mesmerized: Covid, did the government not do a good job. No, not really.
                And this is without any party being in the spotlight, the alternatives to the current government are not much better.

    • Weasel 1.3

      I agree.
      Jacinda Ardern promised transformation on poverty and equality and instead she is leading a Manana Ministry., locked in the Covid headlights leaving all else until the never-never.
      Housing is fundamental to addressing poverty and equality and the truth is that Ardern's focus-group obsessed government has not the slightest intention to bring the price of houses down, because their middle class base feels content and wealthier as their house price rises over $1m.
      The last government that was transformational was the Lange government, and, whatever you think about their neo-liberal policies, their modus operandi was to act from Day One and keep the changes coming. They were re-elected with an increased majority in 1987. The got the unpopular stuff like the introduction of GST out of the way quickly so the electorate had time enough to see it work.
      This Manana government has now been in power for the thick end of four years but it is still using the strategy of setting up reviews to stymie real action and policies. It is pretty hard to differentiate this government from Bill English's other than tone.
      My family and friends are becoming disillusioned and . But where can you go if Labour proves itself useless? I'm getting to the point where I don't care if Labour gets booted out – they have an outright majority; if they are too scared to use it to create meaningful change, then why should we continue to support them/?

  2. Muttonbird 2

    A good point on Collins. Her political future is dependent on there being only people far, far worse than her in the wings.

    Get that. Judith Anne Oravida stump-digging, WhaleOil, fake-praying, Collins is the best prospect for the National Party right now.

    What does that say about the state of Her Majesty's opposition?

    • Chris T 2.1

      It says that the opposition must be super uber shit, given how mega shit the current govt has been.

      • Muttonbird 2.1.1

        Bro, the state of the opposition is not dependent on the state of the government. Clearly that is true.

        • Chris T

          It kind of is dependent really.

          Or else you would have no comparison, and you wouldn’t go on about what the Nats did years ago, to distract from Labour and today.

          • Drowsy M. Kram

            Chris T, going by your comments, your eyebrows must be a sight to behold laugh

            …the opposition must be super uber shit…

            You’re not wrong – it’s going to be a looooong five-and-a-half years for some.

            • Sabine

              The last ones to crow like that were the fan club of J. Key and then boom, the geezer resigned giving one week notice and then suddenly you are left with some beige candidates. In terms of Labour that would be Grant Robertson and some other beige suit. And would Grant Robertson win anything? Last i checked J.A was thrown at the public to save the party because Andrew Little could not get elected dog catcher, and the one before him was nothing more then an arrogant expensive suit, bloated and unpleasant.

              • Incognito

                I don’t want to rain on your parade of suits & men you don’t like but Andrew Little stepped aside for Jacinda Ardern to step forward and up.

                • weka

                  it was a brilliant move and turn of events and we are really lucky (otherwise a fourth term of fjk /shudder).

                • AB

                  And Ardern is way too stylish to own a suit.

                  Plus it's unwise to wear one – donning a suit must surely increase the average man's predisposition to lie by about 30%, add a tie and you can double that. smiley

              • Jimmy

                Jacinda is the glue that holds the Labour party together. Can anyone here seriously see Kelvin Davis taking over as leader if Jacinda was to leave? Unfortunately she has too many ministers that are not skilled or competent and have little real world work experience. She took too long to demote the likes of Clark, Twyford and Curran finally but there are too few heavy lifters like Hipkins, Little and Woods.

                • Incognito

                  Current Ministers are as competent or incompetent as they have ever been. The trick is to work together, across Ministries and Departments and show leadership within these. This takes leadership from the top and willingness from the bottom and everywhere in between …

                • RedBaronCV

                  I'm a big fan of Megan Woods – love her when she has appeared on the TV answering questions and personally I think she would make a very good Prime Minister sometime in the future.

  3. " The latest One News Colmar Brunton Poll is very comforting for the left.

    What left Mickey that is an oxymoron.

    • Enough is Enough 3.1

      Its very comforting for Labour, and those people who spend their lives obsessing over National and what they might be up to.

      For anyone who is sick of the rich getting richer, and this destructive K shaped recovery that this government is overseeing, this poll isn't very comforting at all.

      Parties that are actually on the left, and have policies that will address the inequality in our society, have about 9% support. That's not comforting at all.

  4. the poll is a poll. straws in a wind. Arden scored massively , via her handling of covid.

    We are smugly, over it. Climate change housing etc etc are occupying our attention. The never ending whinging by "business" interests are demoralising.

    Closed borders do that.

    The only poll Ardern paid attention to was the one about property/land tax.


    However the covid thing has not finished wrecking the global economy while china, russia , usa play games.

    Uncertainty? not surprising.

    I am with Jim Bolger when he said something like .."The only poll that counts is on election day."

    Polls supply media scavengers with headlines and vocal noise. Supermarkets and retail chains do it with "SPECIAL" advertising.


    I doubt any one in opposition parties (and their extremely wealthy "business" / farming backers know what to do.

    The media carrion eaters have another headline.

    Gimme a break.

    • Sabine 4.1

      i pretty much agree with everything you say, but let me fix this for you.

      I doubt any one in opposition government – opposition and ruling party – (and their extremely wealthy "business" / farming backers know what to do.

      And yes, housing, jobs, income, financial security, kids in motels, mums discharged with new borns into emergency housing, hunger, etc are more on the mind then the last 'please be kind and gentle with us' speech. And on that they are falling badly, both parties.

      • ken 4.1.1

        It's the aftermath of nearly a decade of basing our economy on immigration.

        You can't just clean up a mess like that in five minutes.

  5. Tiger Mountain 5

    Times would be even more interesting Micky if the neoliberal impasse could be solved.

    The twin impediments are structural embedding in legislation, and cultural hegemony in Ministries of dirty, filthy, monetarism. The “Chicago Boys” would have been hard pressed to complete a more comprehensive neoliberal takeover of a society. Chile excepted of course.

    So the people wait-for housing, healthcare, higher wage economy & Climate action. A precedent setting majority MMPLabour Govt. is clearly not going to deliver because of Caucus adherence to failed ideology.

    So, unless Unions, NGOs and communities start some class left organising, it is a long wait till the 2023 Elections. If US style culture wars play a significant role in ‘23, Labour can take a hefty share of the responsibility. Economic delivery now is the answer.

    • RedBaronCV 5.1

      Big agreement to economic delivery being the answer and yes to all the other points too!

    • KJT 5.2

      I think a major part of the problem is that the Neo-Liberal settings are so entrenched, that no one is really sure how to unwind them without a crash.

      That was deliberate on the part of the culprits.

      • Tiger Mountain 5.2.1

        As much as I don’t like that answer KJT, there is a lot of truth in it.

        Public services and infrastructure from central and local Govt. that have been contracted out, or sold off, functions divided across virtually untraceable divisions of responsibility between ministries, departments and Councils, free in and out flows of finance capital. Fees charged for just about any human activity down to parasites like Wilsons charging for parking at hospitals.

        Where do you start unravelling the mess indeed? Bit by bit I guess is the answer, in your own locality–from School BOTs to Local Govt. Bring employment in house with union collective agreements. When urgent work is needed on a state highway you see Fulton Hogan trucks slowly making their way to the site, why not reestablish a Ministry of Works under public ownership? Restore power generation and supply to public ownership.

        Hopefully over the next couple of elections enough support will build to repeal the Reserve Bank Act, SOEs, State Sector Act etc. Maybe I put too much faith in generations student loan and gen. exploited renter to have the understanding and commitment to retire Roger‘n’Ruth’s legacy!

        • Foreign waka

          Start with the basics, people need jobs, a roof over their head, food on the table and clothes on their back. This has not changed and never will. Right now this government is too busy looking after PR and image, trying not to trip up and have, as TM rightly pointed out, some very inexperienced if not incompetent ministers.

  6. Phil 6

    There's a really delightful irony to this post.

    You confidently assert that a dip for labour is 'comforting' while a rise for national is nothing more than dead count bounce (which is utterly nonsensical in the context of polling).

    Meanwhile the second related link is to a post on a 2014 poll showing the national government dipping and a rise to opposition Labour… that's spun by the author as potential sky-is-falling sign of doom for the Key government.

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