Can We Prepare for 2023?
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7:48 am, November 20th, 2022 - 69 comments
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2023 is going to hit New Zealanders hard.
Since the 2011 Christchurch earthquakes New Zealand has been beset by a new major crisis about once every two years. 2022 was our year off and get ready we are in for a strange and hard recession. It won’t likely be one in the usual form definition of two successive quarters of negative GDP growth, or even in a massive surge in unemployment. No, it will be in the price of everything.
Our Reserve Bank is set to deliver an unprecedented .75 raise in the base interest rate.
That is on top of the rises already pushing through into mortgages, rents, and everything else.
The United Kingdom government fresh into power has hiked tax rates and its public are facing an exceedingly fast corrosion of their spending power as inflation accelerates.
Central banks in Australia, United States, Europe and many others have also raised their base rates fast.
Deusche Bank has also forecast that Australia will enter recession next year.
This is an alarm bell for serious economic turbulence that New Zealand will not be able to shelter from. Deusche Bank’s analysis says that “We expect Australia’s unemployment rate to end 2023 at 4.5%, that is, one percentage point higher than the current unemployment rate at 3.5%.”
That diverges sharply from the Australian Reserve Bank’s forecast of 3.7% for end 2023.
Here is the first problem. When central bankers work this hard to slow the economy down, they often end up tipping into outright reverse.
The really bright stars on the New Zealand horizon are several. Our neighbour Indonesia is doing extremely well selling coal to the world and of course to power New Zealand.
The United States economy grew faster in the July-September quarter though we don’t yet know how bad the tech implosion in California will be. The United States economy, by some measure still the largest and most dynamic, is doing fine.
The other good news is that the entities this government taxes to make the money to redistribute to citizens in the form of subsidies and services, well they are fine. Employment is up. Bank profits are up. Energy company profits are up. Agricultural profits are up. Tourism related companies are up. Over the past three years New Zealand has relied more and more on its government to redistribute this awesome windfall tax income to keep people fed, employed, and otherwise functioning as a society. Minister Robertson is one of the safest pairs of hands in the world, and will continue to be so. There is no one in National or Act that gets close to understanding the scale of 2023’s impact.
The other good news is you can’t get a rental vehicle in Queenstown or Christchurch, all the flights are full, and there’s barely a bed to spare. Tourism is back. New Zealand’s core economic constraint is not enough workers, and that is our powerful protection against 2023’s global recession.
And now for the darkness. Which is pretty dark.
New Zealand’s primary private investment is in domestic real estate, and its average value has tanked 20% and continues to fall in the worst downhill roll since the 1990s and can’t yet see a floor to it. That’s most of our nest eggs, if one if fortunate enough to own one.
New Zealand’s savings in the form of Kiwisaver are tanking. Official advice on Sorted is “everyone keep calm, carry on with your long term investing.”
This year NZSuperFund lost $3.3 billion.
Our ACC fund lost a record $4.5 billion.
ACC suffers record $4.5 billion fall in the value of its investments | Stuff.co.nz
So there’s not a lot of calm evident in international share markets and not much “everyone keep calm” justified.
China’s economy is rapidly decelerating. Though our exports to China are remarkably recession-resilient it will be a test to see if our main exporters are nimble enough to switch markets. It’s just not going to be like it was pre-COVID.
The pressures on the New Zealand economy will continue from the Russian invasion of Ukraine which is set for at very least all of 2023. According to the NZ Treasury September 2022 analysis:
“…the invasion will reinforce a number of transitions in the global economy already underway from existing pressures on globalisation including China/US dynamics and the COVID-19 pandemic, alongside long-standing but increasingly time dependent challenges such as climate change and the need for a “green transition”.
New Zealand has no refining capacity and is one of the most car reliant countries on earth. About 40% of its energy in total comes from imported petroleum. We are only in the start of diesel-driven grocery price rises.
New Zealand’s government is getting to the limits of what it can do to shelter New Zealanders from the impacts of this impending hardship.
We are once again facing forces larger than the powers of our political order to cope with.
The question is not whether house price crashes, rent increases and food and fuel inflation will continue to hurt us.
The question for 2023 to prepare for is where else are we going to be hit and hit hard?
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Haere e te Kīngi o te kotahitangi Haere ki o nui, ki o rahi I te pō ...1 week ago
- Green Party pays respects to Kiingi Tuuheitia
The Green Party is paying tribute to the Māori King, Kiingi Tuuheitia Pootatau Te Wherowhero XVII, after he passed away earlier this morning. ...1 week ago
- Potaka Brings Whakaata Māori to its Knees
Today’s Whakaata Māori announcement is yet another colossal failure from Minister Potaka, who has turned his back on te reo Māori, forcing a channel offline, putting whānau out of jobs, and cutting Māori content, says Te Pāti Māori. “A Senior Māori Minister has turned his back on Te Reo Māori. ...1 week ago
- Release: National restricts access to disability care homes
With disability communities still reeling from the diminishing of Whaikaha, a leaked document now reveals another blow with National restricting access to residential care homes. ...1 week ago
- Release: Govt must help save 230 manufacturing jobs
Labour is calling on the Government and Mercury Energy to find a solution to the proposed Winstone Pulp mill closure and save 230 manufacturing jobs. ...1 week ago
- Govt shirks its responsibility to Whakaata Māori
The Green Party has called out the Government for allowing Whakaata Māori to effectively collapse to a shell of its former self as job cuts and programming cuts were announced at the broadcaster today. ...1 week ago
- NZ First Member’s Bill To Disestablish Auckland Transport
Today New Zealand First has introduced a Member’s Bill that will restore democratic control over transport management in Auckland City by disestablishing Auckland Transport (AT) and returning control to Auckland Council. The ‘Local Government (Auckland Council) (Disestablishment of Auckland Transport) Amendment Bill’ intends to restore democratic oversight, control, and accountability ...1 week ago - Release: PM fails in constitutional role and leadership
The failure of the Prime Minister to condemn his Minister for personally attacking the judiciary is another example of this Government riding roughshod over important constitutional rules. ...1 week ago
- Waititi urges Rotorua Lakes Council to immediately stop works at Lake Rotokākahi
Te Pāti Māori co-leader and Member of Parliament for Waiariki, which includes Rotorua, has written to Rotorua Lakes Councillors requesting they immediately stop sewerage piping works at Lake Rotokākahi in Rotorua. “Mana whenua have been urging Rotorua Lakes Council to stop works and look at alternative plans to protect the ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Patient care at risk from redundancies
Patient care could suffer as a result of further cuts to the health system, which could lose thousands of staff who keep our hospitals and clinics running. ...2 weeks ago
- Greens call on Govt to wake up on child poverty
The Green Party says the latest statistics on child poverty in this country highlight the callous approach that the Government is taking on this issue of national shame. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Police are off the beat under National
Foot patrols around the country have decreased 15 percent since National took office, despite National’s Mark Mitchell claiming otherwise. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Climate denial is an insult to Pacific leaders
Winston Peters’ climate denialism at the Pacific Islands’ Forum is an embarrassing new low. ...2 weeks ago
- Govt must end solitary confinement
The Green Party is urging the Government to end the use of solitary confinement within our prisons after new research revealed some prisoners have been held in confinement for more than 900 days. ...2 weeks ago
- Fossil fuels never the answer in climate crisis
The Government’s moves to enable the import of Liquefied Natural Gas is another step away from the sustainable and affordable energy network that this country needs. ...2 weeks ago
- Government must respect Court’s Uber employee decision
Today’s court ruling upholding the rights of Uber drivers is a message to the Government that it must not tamper with employment protections. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Uber court decision recognises workers’ rights
The Court of Appeal decision that Uber drivers are entitled to employee rights such as minimum wage, sick leave, holiday pay and collective bargaining is welcome news for the drivers involved and their unions. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Labour calls on Govt to divest from illegal settlements
The Labour Party is calling on the Government to tell the two major wealth funds, the NZ Super Fund and ACC, to withdraw investments from companies listed by the United Nations as complicit in Israel’s illegal settlements in the Occupied Palestinian Territories. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Govt backtrack on fast-track still not enough
Labour welcomes news that the National Government is backing down on its reckless proposal to give Ministers final sign-off on significant projects, but it’s still not enough. ...2 weeks ago
- Fast track still on track to environmental destruction
Our environment remains at risk despite the Government's proposed changes to its controversial fast-track legislation. ...2 weeks ago
- Ohinemuri River pollution highlights mining risks
The harrowing images of the severely polluted Ohinemuri River caused by an old mining shaft could become a more common occurrence under the mining regime the Government is looking to roll out. ...2 weeks ago
- Govt Incarcerating our Mokopuna into a Failed System
Information released by the Minister for Children has revealed that almost 800 mokopuna Māori have been taken by the state this year, putting it on track for the largest displacement of tamariki Māori since the introduction of Section 7AA in 2019. “Oranga Tamariki is running a crusade against whakapapa Māori ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Chris Hipkins’ Speech to Local Government New Zealand
...2 weeks ago
- Release: Regional deals can’t leave ratepayers picking up the bill again
On the back of a patronising speech to local councils the Government has rushed out an announcement on regional and city deals that leaves out the crucial component – funding. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Govt in thrall to tobacco lobbyists
The National Government has put the interests of tobacco lobbyists ahead of New Zealanders and their health. ...2 weeks ago
- Government progresses response to Abuse in Care recommendations
A Crown Response Office is being established within the Public Service Commission to drive the Government’s response to the Royal Commission into Abuse in Care. “The creation of an Office within a central Government agency was a key recommendation by the Royal Commission’s final report. “It will have the mandate ...2 days ago - Passport wait times back on-track
Minister of Internal Affairs Brooke van Velden says passport processing has returned to normal, and the Department of Internal Affairs [Department] is now advising customers to allow up to two weeks to receive their passport. “I am pleased that passport processing is back at target service levels and the Department ...2 days ago
- New appointments to the FMA board
Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister has today announced three new appointments and one reappointment to the Financial Markets Authority (FMA) board. Tracey Berry, Nicholas Hegan and Mariette van Ryn have been appointed for a five-year term ending in August 2029, while Chris Swasbrook, who has served as a board member ...2 days ago
- District Court judges appointed
Attorney-General Hon Judith Collins today announced the appointment of two new District Court judges. The appointees, who will take up their roles at the Manukau Court and the Auckland Court in the Accident Compensation Appeal Jurisdiction, are: Jacqui Clark Judge Clark was admitted to the bar in 1988 after graduating ...2 days ago
- Government makes it faster and easier to invest in New Zealand
Associate Minister of Finance David Seymour is encouraged by significant improvements to overseas investment decision timeframes, and the enhanced interest from investors as the Government continues to reform overseas investment. “There were about as many foreign direct investment applications in July and August as there was across the six months ...3 days ago
- New Zealand to join Operation Olympic Defender
New Zealand has accepted an invitation to join US-led multi-national space initiative Operation Olympic Defender, Defence Minister Judith Collins announced today. Operation Olympic Defender is designed to coordinate the space capabilities of member nations, enhance the resilience of space-based systems, deter hostile actions in space and reduce the spread of ...3 days ago
- Government commits to ‘stamping out’ foot and mouth disease
Biosecurity Minister Andrew Hoggard says that a new economic impact analysis report reinforces this government’s commitment to ‘stamp out’ any New Zealand foot and mouth disease incursion. “The new analysis, produced by the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research, shows an incursion of the disease in New Zealand would have ...3 days ago
- Improving access to finance for Kiwis
5 September 2024 The Government is progressing further reforms to financial services to make it easier for Kiwis to access finance when they need it, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly says. “Financial services are foundational for economic success and are woven throughout our lives. Without access to finance our ...3 days ago
- Prime Minister pays tribute to Kiingi Tuheitia
As Kiingi Tuheitia Pootatau Te Wherowhero VII is laid to rest today, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has paid tribute to a leader whose commitment to Kotahitanga will have a lasting impact on our country. “Kiingi Tuheitia was a humble leader who served his people with wisdom, mana and an unwavering ...3 days ago
- Resource Management reform to make forestry rules clearer
Forestry Minister Todd McClay today announced proposals to reform the resource management system that will provide greater certainty for the forestry sector and help them meet environmental obligations. “The Government has committed to restoring confidence and certainty across the sector by removing unworkable regulatory burden created by the previous ...3 days ago
- More choice and competition in building products
A major shake-up of building products which will make it easier and more affordable to build is on the way, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “Today we have introduced legislation that will improve access to a wider variety of quality building products from overseas, giving Kiwis more choice and ...3 days ago
- Joint Statement between the Republic of Korea and New Zealand 4 September 2024, Seoul
On the occasion of the official visit by the Right Honourable Prime Minister Christopher Luxon of New Zealand to the Republic of Korea from 4 to 5 September 2024, a summit meeting was held between His Excellency President Yoon Suk Yeol of the Republic of Korea (hereinafter referred to as ...4 days ago
- Comprehensive Strategic Partnership the goal for New Zealand and Korea
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon held a bilateral meeting today with the President of the Republic of Korea, Yoon Suk Yeol. “Korea and New Zealand are likeminded democracies and natural partners in the Indo Pacific. As such, we have decided to advance discussions on elevating the bilateral relationship to a Comprehensive ...4 days ago
- International tourism continuing to bounce back
Results released today from the International Visitor Survey (IVS) confirm international tourism is continuing to bounce back, Tourism and Hospitality Minister Matt Doocey says. The IVS results show that in the June quarter, international tourism contributed $2.6 billion to New Zealand’s economy, an increase of 17 per cent on last ...4 days ago
- Government confirms RMA reforms to drive primary sector efficiency
The Government is moving to review and update national level policy directives that impact the primary sector, as part of its work to get Wellington out of farming. “The primary sector has been weighed down by unworkable and costly regulation for too long,” Agriculture Minister Todd McClay says. “That is ...4 days ago
- Weak grocery competition underscores importance of cutting red tape
The first annual grocery report underscores the need for reforms to cut red tape and promote competition, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly says. “The report paints a concerning picture of the $25 billion grocery sector and reinforces the need for stronger regulatory action, coupled with an ambitious, economy-wide ...4 days ago
- Government moves to lessen burden of reliever costs on ECE services
Associate Education Minister David Seymour says the Government has listened to the early childhood education sector’s calls to simplify paying ECE relief teachers. Today two simple changes that will reduce red tape for ECEs are being announced, in the run-up to larger changes that will come in time from the ...5 days ago
- Over 2,320 people engage with first sector regulatory review
Regulation Minister David Seymour says there has been a strong response to the Ministry for Regulation’s public consultation on the early childhood education regulatory review, affirming the need for action in reducing regulatory burden. “Over 2,320 submissions have been received from parents, teachers, centre owners, child advocacy groups, unions, research ...5 days ago
- Government backs women in horticulture
“The Government is empowering women in the horticulture industry by funding an initiative that will support networking and career progression,” Associate Minister of Agriculture, Nicola Grigg says. “Women currently make up around half of the horticulture workforce, but only 20 per cent of leadership roles which is why initiatives like this ...5 days ago
- Government to pause freshwater farm plan rollout
The Government will pause the rollout of freshwater farm plans until system improvements are finalised, Agriculture Minister Todd McClay, Environment Minister Penny Simmonds and Associate Environment Minister Andrew Hoggard announced today. “Improving the freshwater farm plan system to make it more cost-effective and practical for farmers is a priority for this ...5 days ago
- Milestone reached for fixing the Holidays Act 2003
Minister for Workplace Relations and Safety Brooke van Velden says yesterday Cabinet reached another milestone on fixing the Holidays Act with approval of the consultation exposure draft of the Bill ready for release next week to participants. “This Government will improve the Holidays Act with the help of businesses, workers, and ...5 days ago
- New priorities to protect future of conservation
Toitū te marae a Tāne Mahuta me Hineahuone, toitū te marae a Tangaroa me Hinemoana, toitū te taiao, toitū te tangata. The Government has introduced clear priorities to modernise Te Papa Atawhai - The Department of Conservation’s protection of our natural taonga. “Te Papa Atawhai manages nearly a third of our ...5 days ago
- Faster 110km/h speed limit to accelerate Kāpiti
A new 110km/h speed limit for the Kāpiti Expressway Road of National Significance (RoNS) has been approved to reduce travel times for Kiwis travelling in and out of Wellington, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Boosting economic growth and productivity is a key part of the Government’s plan to rebuild the economy. ...5 days ago
- IVL increase to ensure visitors contribute more to New Zealand
The International Visitor Conservation and Tourism Levy (IVL) will be raised to $100 to ensure visitors contribute to public services and high-quality experiences while visiting New Zealand, Minister for Tourism and Hospitality Matt Doocey and Minister of Conservation Tama Potaka say. “The Government is serious about enabling the tourism sector ...6 days ago
- Delivering priority connections for the West Coast
A record $255 million for transport investment on the West Coast through the 2024-27 National Land Transport Programme (NLTP) will strengthen the region’s road and rail links to keep people connected and support the region’s economy, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “The Government is committed to making sure that every ...6 days ago
- Road and rail reliability a focus for Wellington
A record $3.3 billion of transport investment in Greater Wellington through the 2024-27 National Land Transport Programme (NLTP) will increase productivity and reduce travel times, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Delivering infrastructure to increase productivity and economic growth is a priority for our Government. We're focused on delivering transport projects ...6 days ago
- Record investment to boost economic and housing growth in the Waikato
A record $1.9 billion for transport investment in the Waikato through the 2024-27 National Land Transport Programme (NLTP) will create a more efficient, safe, and resilient roading network that supports economic growth and productivity, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “With almost a third of the country’s freight travelling into, out ...6 days ago
- Building reliable and efficient roading for Taranaki
A record $808 million for transport investment in Taranaki through the 2024-27 National Land Transport Programme (NLTP) will support economic growth and productivity, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Taranaki’s roads carry a high volume of freight from primary industries and it’s critical we maintain efficient connections across the region to ...6 days ago
- Supporting growth and resilience in Otago and Southland
A record $1.4 billion for transport investment in Otago and Southland through the 2024-27 National Land Transport Programme (NLTP) will create a more resilient and efficient network that supports economic growth and productivity, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Transport is a critical enabler for economic growth and productivity in Otago ...6 days ago
- Delivering connected and resilient roading for Northland
A record $991 million for transport investment in Northland through the 2024-27 National Land Transport Programme (NLTP) will strengthen the region’s connections and support economic growth and productivity, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “We are committed to making sure that every transport dollar is spent wisely on the projects and ...6 days ago
- Top of the South to benefit from reliable transport infrastructure
A record $479 million for transport investment across the top of the South Island through the 2024-27 National Land Transport Programme (NLTP) will build a stronger road network that supports primary industries and grows the economy, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “We’re committed to making sure that every dollar is ...6 days ago
- Government delivering reliable roads for Manawatū-Whanganui
A record $1.6 billion for transport investment in Manawatū-Whanganui through the 2024-27 National Land Transport Programme (NLTP) will strengthen the region’s importance as a strategic freight hub that boosts economic growth, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Delivering infrastructure to increase productivity and economic growth is a priority for our Government. ...6 days ago
- Restoring connections in Hawke’s Bay
A record $657 million for transport investment in the Hawke’s Bay through the 2024-27 National Land Transport Programme (NLTP) will support recovery from cyclone damage and build greater resilience into the network to support economic growth and productivity, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “We are committed to making sure that ...6 days ago
- Transport resilience a priority for Gisborne
A record $255 million for transport investment in Gisborne through the 2024-27 National Land Transport Programme (NLTP) will support economic growth and restore the cyclone-damaged network, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “With $255 million of investment over the next three years, we are committed to making sure that every transport ...6 days ago
- Prioritising growth and reduced travel times in Canterbury
A record $1.8 billion for transport investment Canterbury through the 2024-27 National Land Transport Programme (NLTP) will boost economic growth and productivity and reduce travel times, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Christchurch is the economic powerhouse of the South Island, and transport is a critical enabler for economic growth and ...6 days ago
- Supporting growth and freight in the Bay of Plenty
A record $1.9 billion for transport investment in the Bay of Plenty through the 2024-27 National Land Transport Programme (NLTP) will boost economic growth and unlock land for thousands of houses, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Transport is a critical enabler for economic growth and productivity in the Bay of ...6 days ago
- Getting transport back on track in Auckland
A record $8.4 billion for transport investment in Auckland through the 2024-27 National Land Transport Programme (NLTP) will deliver the infrastructure our rapidly growing region needs to support economic growth and reduce travel times, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Aucklanders rejected the previous government’s transport policies which resulted in non-delivery, phantoms projects, ...6 days ago
- Record investment to get transport back on track
A record $32.9 billion investment in New Zealand’s transport network through the 2024-27 National Land Transport Programme (NLTP) will create a more reliable and efficient transport network that boosts economic growth and productivity, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “New Zealanders rejected the previous government’s transport policies which resulted in non-delivery, ...6 days ago
- Consultation is open on gambling harm strategy
Minister for Mental Health Matt Doocey has welcomed the start of Gambling Harm Awareness Week by encouraging New Zealanders to have their say on the next three-year strategy to prevent and minimise gambling harm. “While many New Zealanders enjoy gambling as a pastime without issue, the statistics are clear that ...6 days ago
- JOINT STATEMENT FOR THE OFFICIAL VISIT OF NEW ZEALAND PRIME MINISTER CHRISTOPHER LUXON
1. Prime Minister YAB Dato’ Seri Anwar Ibrahim hosted Prime Minister Rt. Hon Christopher Luxon on an Official Visit to Malaysia from 1 to 3 September 2024. Both leaders expressed appreciation for enduring and warm bilateral ties over 67 years of diplomatic relations. The Malaysia – New Zealand Strategic Partnership 2. The ...6 days ago
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OPEN LETTER: Our Action Station Dear TVNZ, We are deeply concerned with the misleading nature of the journalism presented in your recent coverage of the escalating crisis in Gaza and the West Bank. By focusing on specific language and framing, while leaving out the necessary context of international law, the ...3 hours ago - Census will now include questions on sexual orientation and gender identity
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra The Albanese government has shifted again on the 2026 census, now saying it will include questions on both sexual orientation and gender identity. In its latest iteration, the government announced on Sunday the census ...4 hours ago
- New Zealand takes another step towards US space operations
Analysis - Space has rapidly become more hostile for geopolitical reasons, but what are the threats, and what is New Zealand doing to assess them? ...5 hours ago - Business case to replace NZDF’s Boeing 757s in the works, as repair costs skyrocket
The planes have been plagued by multiple breakdowns, in one case nearly derailing a prime ministerial trade mission. ...7 hours ago
- Mediawatch: Kiingi Tuheitia’s tangihanga – epic broadcast marks new epoch for te ao Māori
“Anticipation is growing. The warriors are ready. They’re preparing themselves. The paddlers are already on their waka,” Scotty Morrison, alongside veteran journalist Tini Molyneux, told viewers from the banks of the Waikato River. It was Thursday, and the body of Kiingi Tuheitia was being escorted to the barge to take ...10 hours ago
- Media focus on small stuff in government’s big-budget transport plan
Some media queried how the $33b national transport plan will be funded. Others highlighted aspects that barely dent the budget. ...12 hours ago
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A Queenslander, a Falkland Islander and a Gibraltarian walk into a debating chamber. It's no joke - just the reality at Parliament this week ...15 hours ago
- An Ode to .. King Luxon
Orient ExpressHot air balloon Number OneIs prepared by the Royal Hot Air Balloon ForceFor Prime Balloonist, King Luxon,And his trade delegation to the Orient.But lo! With a splutter and a puffHot air balloon Number One folds in on itselfAnd deflates onto the field.King Luxon sighs and books a ticketOn a ...15 hours ago - Mike Joy on his memoir and butting heads with Sir John Key
The scientist whose work prompted Sir John Key in 2011 to compare academics to lawyers says it was a "surreal" and "scary" time. ...1 day ago
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The inquiry was completed months ago, but the minister of education is still weighing up its recommendations. ...1 day ago
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Further regulation of the supermarket sector may hit a snag in the form of David Seymour, who is mounting strong opposition to any such move. ...2 days ago
- The Weekend: Paralympics appreciation vs everyday apathy
Madeleine Chapman reflects on the week that was. The Paralympic Games end tomorrow after nearly two weeks of incredible athletic feats. On a purely results basis, New Zealand hasn’t done that well. As of writing (Friday), we’re yet to win a gold medal and are placed 61st out of 74 ...2 days ago - ‘I wish I’d never thought of it’: The Blue Monkey on Suzanne Paul’s back
The infomercial queen looks back on an eventful life in TV, filled with Coronation Street, The Blue Monkey and a lot of reality television. Suzanne Paul is a New Zealand television icon. Born and raised in England, Paul worked around the world for 20 years before she arrived in Aotearoa ...2 days ago
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Shanti Mathias visits and ranks the crème de la crème of Auckland’s secondhand bookshops. From Ponsonby to Grafton to Devonport to Parnell, Auckland has some lovely secondhand bookshops, many of which are huge and deserve to be browsed for hours, embracing the way that all bookstores, but especially secondhand bookstores, ...2 days ago
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Skimmed Alive, Earl Gravy or Peanut Safari, there’s nothing like making someone a cup of tea exactly how they like it. The Spinoff Essay showcases the best essayists in Aotearoa, on topics big and small. Made possible by the generous support of our members. ‘Corrie climax sparks power surge.’ That was ...2 days ago
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Damian Alexander and Shelton Woolright of Blindspott share their perfect weekend playlist. Few embody the “west is best” mindset as well as Blindspott. So, it’s probably a good thing the bogan rockers will be able to let their West Auckland sensibilities loose as a part of a supergroup comprised of ...2 days ago
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“See that car, ow?” A lime-green Beetle puttered into the distance, barely making the speed limit. “Lady in the front winked at me. Almost crossed the centre line she was so lost in my eyes.”“Bro, that’s the lifeguard. She’s seventy.”Māui shrugged his shoulders. “My swag crosses generational lines. What can ...2 days ago
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It’s been a brutal year for New Zealand television, with the demise of Three’s Newshub news operation, costing 300-odd jobs; and the canning of TVNZ’s highly rated Fair Go, Sunday and Late News programmes.It’s also been announced the long-running soap Shortland Street will be cut to three nights a week, ...2 days ago
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MONDAYGreat news for the nation! In a gesture that I know will resonate with ordinary Kiwis who look to the Prime Minister as an example of someone who can deliver a set of deliverables that will take root and come to pass, I have sold one of my nine or ...2 days ago
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The government is making a poor economic move with its plan to import natural gas according to Saul Griffith, renewable energy advocate and former climate advisor to Joe Biden. Saul Griffith is an author, inventor, scientist and co-founder of Rewiring America. A few years back he managed to convince ...2 days ago
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Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Deanne Fisher, Associate Professor of Astronomy, Swinburne University of Technology The starry part of every galaxy is surrounded by a vast shroud of gas extending out for more than 100,000 light years. Cristy Roberts / ANU / ASTRO 3D Have you ever ...2 days ago
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Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Moya Costello, Adjunct Lecturer, Southern Cross University Opera Australia My first curiosities about the new opera Eucalyptus, an adaptation of Murray Bail’s multi-award-winning 1998 novel, were regarding how Ellen and the many stories told to her by her ultimately successful suitor ...2 days ago
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Analysis - The government's $32.9 billion transport spend-up, a big hike in the tourist levy, and the prime minister's ferry-free visit to South Korea. ...2 days ago
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Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Anastasia Powell, Professor, Family and Sexual Violence, RMIT University A new A$4.7 billion national funding package announced today will deliver much needed resources to address family and sexual violence. For years, specialist support services, community legal services, therapeutic responses and men’s ...2 days ago
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Brazilians Newton Santos and Nubia Chiarelli had been fighting to get their case reviewed since 2021. ...2 days ago
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Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alan Collins, Professor of Geology, University of Adelaide Two tectonic plates meet in Thingvellir National Park, Iceland. VisualProduction/Shutterstock Using information from inside the rocks on Earth’s surface, we have reconstructed the plate tectonics of the planet over the last 1.8 billion years. ...2 days ago
- Far North District councillors vote unanimously to retain their Māori ward following impassioned me...
The council's strongly worded resolution also called on the CEO to explore the legal implications of not holding a binding poll as required. ...2 days ago
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Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Laura Revell, Associate Professor in Environmental Physics, University of Canterbury NASA via Getty Images At this time of year, as the sun rises over Antarctica, a “hole” opens up in Earth’s ozone layer. The ozone layer is a vital planetary boundary ...2 days ago
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This is what you need to know about the draft English and maths curriculums out for consultation. ...2 days ago
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Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Bradley J. Moggridge, Professor of Science, University of Technology Sydney Bradley Moggridge, Author provided Kamilaroi Country lies in far northwest New South Wales, past Tamworth and crossing over the Queensland border. Here, the bunyip bird (Australasian bittern, Botaurus poiciloptilus), and the ...2 days ago
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Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Vaughan Cruickshank, Senior Lecturer in Health and Physical Education, University of Tasmania Thousands of amazing athletes have competed in the Paralympics Games over the past 64 years. But who are the greatest of these Paralympians? And how would you decide? ...2 days ago
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Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Erica Mealy, Lecturer in Computer Science, University of the Sunshine Coast The Australian government this week released voluntary artificial intelligence (AI) safety standards, alongside a proposals paper calling for greater regulation of the use of the fast-growing technology in high-risk situations. ...2 days ago
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Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By George Taleporos, Adjunct Senior Research Fellow, Living with Disability Research Centre, La Trobe University Bill Shorten is resigning from politics in February next year. Throughout his 17 years in parliament, no achievement stands out more than his role in the creation of ...2 days ago
- Birth, deaths and marriages: we all have them, which is why they should be protected
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Janet McCalman, Emeritus Redmond Barry Distinguished Professor, The University of Melbourne Shutterstock Why does Victoria’s Births, Deaths and Marriages registry matter? Civil registrations are the most important documents created about you by the state: they certify your existence in time and ...2 days ago
The above speculations/predictions are exactly the reason the Aotearoa NZ working class, middle class, alienated and super annuitants (not an inconsequential bunch in receipt of Govt. transfers) need an urgent political campaign along the lines of “For the many not the few”.
This link shows some of the beneficiary numbers–“pensioners” usually detest being lumped in with dirty filthy bennies, but that is essentially what they are none the less.
https://figure.nz/chart/l8m4HeSfriXHYpQS
Contrary to the ADVANTAGE take, gouged corporate profits are not a positive for the majority of us. Particularly when they come from what should be publicly owned and controlled infrastructure.
But who is going to advance the necessary campaign? We the people have to step up. The NZCTU is essentially a neutered, class collaborationist organisation, the NZ Labour Party is in thrall still to neo Blairism, and the small but impactful Marxist parties that Muldoon once demonised, are mainly online entities now.
The shit is going to hit the fan but the hard reality has to be faced–it is time to retire the legacy of Rogernomics and Ruthanasia. ACT and Natzos will only support measures that ensure what loot there is keeps being shovelled “upstairs”. Ordinary people have to get involved in political organisation in their communities again. This includes extra Parliamentary politics which so many have never known in our era of Flybuys points and precarious employment and contracting out.
The major problem for the tories and NZ Labour is so obvious–residential property “owners” with thumping great mortgages will descend into negative equity territory. Green Party has put up some good initiatives lately and this is the in imo for the Greens.
There are obvious measures to take…
• Rent Freeze, Rent Control
• Mortgage freezes–use your bloated profits to tide you over banksters
• Basic Income for all citizens paid via IRD–abated as any significant income rises
• Retire MSD/WINZ, all transfer payments through IRD and a new agency for special needs groups
• Free Dental and universal fare free public transport
• Return power generation and supply to full public ownership and control
• Rebuild a public works Dept. send Fulton Hogan and the rest of the bludgers packing.
etc. etc.
Capitalism will not solve this current situation to state the obvious. People have to take collective responsibility again.
I don't know about your dentist but mine is a dodgy charger, $280 for a clean and exrays took 20 minutes max, wants to do 2 fillings for $780 , but am sure she just does cosmetic fixes at times that she wants to do and calls it fillings, have had at least one other customer tell me the find the same. the bill might be to big for the country.
Someone posted a link yesterday with the figure on $1 billion dollars a year for free dental treatment.
Grant Robertson has said he can't afford that, but they did afford $11 billion over four years for the new health authority………
Bureacracy before direct service provion never works for me.
are you suggesting they take $1B from the existing health budget?
No, I am suggesting the Health re-structure funding, is wasted money. Sure it may bring some benefits (although a contact I have pretty high up in Health NZ is deeply sceptical) but I would prefer money to go to front line services e.g dentistry, rather than a re structure, especially during a pandemic
are you aware of the mess that Southern DHB has been in?
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/467473/budget-2022-11-point-1b-allocated-to-overhauling-the-health-system
RE the funding of our new health system $11 billion dollars allocated.
That would fund a 11 years of free dentistry.
I think if people had a choice they would go for free dentistry. IMO it is impossible to be certain of benefits steming from this re-structure.
The most essential thing in health delivery is having a well staffed well resourced health work force who can deliver services that are either free or affordable.
One of the costs Anker was getting to where systems were compatible.
During the pandemic it was discovered many Hospitals were separate silos, and General Practice was a lottery. Their computer systems were patchy.
We sling off at so many things, but the mobilisation of a workforce to vaccinate and test was remarkable.
Our maintenance of medical and medicine supplies well done, by propping up Air NZ.
Now we bring services back after a pandemic which is still having high costs in lives lost and ongoing services.
Improving systems, trying to get more equity into some areas means adjustments for some. Those who expected to privatise are not pleased.
Dental was a goal, but the goal posts moved.
I am not sure if this is what you are saying Patricia, but my impression was that the old DHBs stood up reasonable well during the pandemic. That would be another reason for me for pushing a very expensive re structure down the queue of must dos.
I far rather see 11 years of dentistry funding that a new health bureacracy. How about you?
Of course dental should be free (or cheap/scaled like GP visits). Here's the real politik argument for why Labour won't do that currently. Various threads from Lew's tweet.
https://twitter.com/LewSOS/status/1592372879399657472
The point being made is that between now and the election, there's little room to move. If Labour put out a free or subsidised dental policy and then can't deliver because of the pandemic and staff shortages, that risks them losing the election next year.
Is there a crisis in work force numbers in dentistry? I didn't think so.
What is the basis of your opinion?
Incognito, am assuming you mean the basis for my opinion about there not being a shortage of dentists?
I would stand corrected if someone showed me stats that we are short of dentists and this may well be the case. But I have never heard it mentioned, nor does there seem to be any difficulty accessing dentistry if you are able to afford it (may be different in different areas).
But funding dentistry is one thing. Having a shortage of dentists is another.
Ok, thanks for confirming that there is no basis, i.e., a “preconceived opinion that is not based on reason or actual experience”.
My actual experience is that I have never had trouble finding or booking to see a dentist.
Do you have any evidence to support that there is a shortage of dentists in NZ?
My comments weren’t really about the workforce in dentistry, but rather how imo the govt should have forgone the $11.1 billon dollars spend on a re structure and provided 11 years of free dental treatment. What do you think about that Incog?
I think that personal anecdotal evidence is of limited use in convos of this general nature and that drawing conclusions, connections, and (inferred) causations based on that is, at best, a fruitless exercise. Extrapolation based on one single point is not sound, not in mathematics & science, nor elsewhere. It is not my place to fill the gaps & blanks for you – you are free to do or not do this yourself, as you so choose.
I also think that comparing apples with oranges is not helpful. Also, reducing everything to alleged costs and dollars allocated/spent is oversimplification as it ignores crucial context. Weka already alluded to this (https://thestandard.org.nz/can-we-prepare-for-2023/#comment-1922088).
But then you perhaps don't live in my home town of Wairoa. Dental Services have been precarious for several years.
The last full time dentist is 3 years younger than me. He advertised and advertised over the years for someone interested in a partnership who could take over when he retired. With no luck. he had to retire from work and was not able to sell the practice.
The point about dentistry is that even with a local dentist the cost can be prohibitive.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/ldr/467119/dentist-coming-to-wairoa-after-two-year-void
The health sector is in need of reform. In the 1990s there was work done around the intense silos that had grown up around hospitals and hospital care. Although this showed promise, and some of its features are in the new system it was not continued. So I don't think there is an automatic case for saying the cost of the reforms $$$$$ should be allocated to dentistry or hips or prostates. Ultimately this money can be wasted by inefficient base services.
The creakiness of the system was shown during the pandemic and relied hugely on central controls/guidelines and the wonderful unselfish and unstinting work done by our health professionals. This is not sustainable.
The real bugbear is that health is political. Our three year term does health reform no favours. This is another reason to ensure that Labout/alliances are voted in in 2023. This will enable health reforms to bed in and people will see the difference and not be tempted, hopefully, to support a party that says it will turn health on its ear again.
Yes of course Shanreagh Wairoa is an a drastic state with health professionals. I understand there is no cardiologist there.
We disagree about what health money should be spent on.
No matter how much better the new health system operates, there will still need to be a. cardiologist found for Wairoa and more dentists and nurses.
I asked a question about the dental workforce. I never stated it as a fact.
I stand by what I am saying about funding dentistry over a health re structure.
Govt money is govt money and they are the one who spend it.
Apples oranges, bananas tomatos………who cares. I am talking about access to dental care for the population.
But you don't seem to interested in engaging any sort of discussion with me about any issues, but appear to be very interested in actively critiquing all I say on here.
What's up with that?
Yes there is a shortage of dentists in NZ. More critical in some areas than others – but a shortage overall.
ATM, this is largely managed by cost – i.e. dental treatment is expensive, so pretty much only the relatively well off, or those in acute pain, sign up for treatement.
Instituting universal free dental would open the flood-gates – and the existing dental workforce would be very rapidly overwhelmed by demand – and close their books to new patients.
There's little point in making something free, if you actually can't get it at all.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/dentists-few-and-far-between/Y4CIHCQWLGP4PXB3IWQWVMWNVQ/
https://www.stuff.co.nz/southland-times/129147342/southland-dentists-burnt-out-as-clinician-capacity-reached
@Belladonna, if dentists could be trusted dental work could very simply be triaged and only necessary work be done on the government tab, but you can guarantee it'll be rorted to hell
I think the shortage of dentist and making dental work free are two separate issues.
I wonder what Andrew Little and Health NZs plans are to increase the supply of dentists?
And as Bwagon pointed out, like with hospital services, things can be triaged.
I think it is clear enough and I made my point and it is pointless to spend more time & space on this under this Post.
Only if you ignore the real world practicalities. In Lew's thread there is a clear explanation for why Labour can't commit to free/subsidised dental services. If Labour say yes, we will do this, and they don't deliver because there is a staff shortage and there are too many difficult things going on from the pandemic, then Nact will be in next year and then we won't have free dental care. Labour don't have a magic wand.
What they could be doing is working towards it, and they could be sorting out their messaging. The whole 'you can get $ from WINZ' was idiotic, given how hard it is to get $ from WINZ for dental work. They could fix that system. But, like many other people and organisations, the government has been under a lot of stress in the past three years. They've got the same problems as everyone else with sickness and staffing and people doing jobs they're not trained for. Plus they have to run the country and win next year's election.
I'm not saying we should excuse them something, I'm saying it's time to adapt to the long term stress the country is under and start coming up with different solutions.
I can't speak for Incog, but from my pov, the sub thread was about real politik deriving from worker shortages. Making an argument that it's not a problem because you are not aware of the shortages is kind of fail here because we then end up having a conversation based in something that isn't true.
There has not been a cardiologist there for many years. In the 1950/60s my father needed cardiology care and he needed to go to Napier for it.
In those days specialties often had days per week there or month. I think they still do this. Wairoa had a hospital with a competent general surgery (with surgeons) programme in the olden days. Now it is a triaging and staging place and that is OK most of the time. As long as helicopters. ambulances can get in and out and they have enough on hand specialists to stabilise people.
I see the DHB is now providing dental care and this is a good move and could/should continue. Traditionally dental care for adults was provided through the private sector. This did not continue in Wairoa with one of the local Iwi stepping in to work with the HB DHB. As with everything provided by Iwi health-wise this will be available to all on the basis of need.
Again if you look at the saying that how the poorest in the population are cared for as a measure of the health/wealth of the country then the opportunity is there for improvement.
Bit hard to get a cardiologist anywhere here in NZ, not helped by not putting the role on the Green List.
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/479077/plumbers-but-not-cardiologists-the-curious-case-of-the-immigration-green-list
And on a lighter note re your Apples and Oranges comment Incognito.
This
https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/comparing-apples-and-oranges-37838381/#:~:text=The%20phrase%20%22comparing%20apples%20and,to%20make%20any%20comparison%20invalid.
re your comments below about free dental when Labour may not have the workforce to supply. I don't buy that rationale.
Labour promised big in mental health delivery. They didn't have the workforce, but they had the will. They signalled their intention and because they set that as their intention, they acted accordingly eg. the worked with NZAC to allow that workforce to work in DHBs. While there is an unmet need and a lot to do, there has been progress.
Labour also did it with the recent announcement about making early child care available and then low and behold there were people who worked in the industry saying "we don't have the staff".
So I don't think not having the staff really is a sufficient reason.
Setting dental care as a free service means that if National gets in, they have to deliberately roll it back. As it would likely be a very popular service, it would be one National would can at their peril.
It's not the reason. The reason is that this close to the election they can't take on an additional big policy and one that is likely to fail in the time frame.
You are assuming that it's possible to get free dental care in place and functioning before the election. It's not that National would roll it back, it's that it wouldn't be up and running in time. It's not going to happen before Christmas, which means that Labour have a couple of months to develop the policy and get Treasury to cost it so that they can include it in the 2023 budget. This isn't my area of knowledge, but I can't see how that is possible given all the things.
We should of course be calling for free dental care, and Labour should be making encouraging signals. I just think the real politik needs to be considered too in our discussion.
I didn't make a case that there was no dentist shortage. Someone else raised it and I asked a question "Is there a crisisin workforce numbers in dentistry? I didn't think so. It was a geniune question.
Incognito then said something like a preconceived idea that isn't based on anything including experience. So I replied that my experience was I could get to see a dentist pretty easily.
I wasn't denying there was a shortage of dentists.
And is it true they don't have staff?
When was the policy developed? Was it in this year's budget? Or will it be in next year's?
Free dental care is a much bigger policy shift.
I am reporting what I saw reported on the news re not enough staff, but it would make some sense wouldn't it, because the policy would increase access so more staff would be needed. I think the policy is due to kick in in April next year. So they will have to work out whether it is doable or not. Or at how much of it is doable.
Free dental care is a big policy shift, but we also have a workforce up and running, even if it doesn't have capacity (I would be interested to know how much of dentists case work is on cosmetic dentistry.
I don't think Labour have the will to implement the policy. their call.
I remain unconvinced that Heath NZ will make improvements of any significant nature (with the expection of anything they do to increase and support the health work force. But that's just my opinion
I haven't looked at HNZ closely, but it's very clear that there have been serious problems with inconsistency of services across the country arising out of the DHB system. And that some DHBs have been struggling. I'm not a fan of centralisation in many areas, but high tech and ambulance at the bottom of the cliff medicine does seem like an area that would do better with an overarching structure.
So, looking at the bit of the dental system which is already free – services to children.
This is already falling over because of lack of staff. And was in crisis even before Covid hit (my kid aged out of the school dental program before Covid – but was not seen by the school service for the last 3 years of his primary schooling. I had to make other arrangements.)
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/129928687/fear-more-children-may-end-up-in-hospital-amid-rise-in-delays-for-dental-checkups
Parents are being told to enrol their kids at dentists – if they want dental treatment. Many dentists won't take children and teens – as the government payment is much less than they can make from adults. And many parents can't arrange time off work, etc. to take their kids to routine dental appointments.
Announcing a huge policy (and free dental would be a significant change) – when they *know* there isn't the staffing to deliver on it – simply hands a huge political stick to the opposition. "Labour's failure to deliver, yet again"
I'm not opposed to free dental services – in fact, I think it's an excellent idea. But the country quite simply doesn't have the resources to deliver.
Not having the staff, is actually a sufficient reason.
Thanks Belladonna. I accept there is a dental shortage, although I wasn't aware of it prior to this thread. I have a close relative who is a dentist and he's never spoken of it, although again I guess it depends somewhat on where you are practicing.
One of the problems with Govt payments to dentists is if they are at a lower rate than they can charge, why would they prioritize subsidized work? People moan a lot about dental charges, but listening to my relative talk, the costs involve in denstry are significant. Filings, support staff, even the cost of the dental chair is huge. Dentists have horrific student loans, so given this why should the provide a subsidized service.
Govt has done this with funding counsellors as well (not this govt, but back around 2006 – 07). A scheme run through the PHOs really undercut counsellors wages. In this field, what that meant was that anyone who was a good therapist, wouldn't bother taking the subsidized clients. They didn't have to.
"when they know there isn't staffing to deliver on- certainly hands a big stick to the opposition. Indeed. This is what happened in mental health.
Labours likely failure is that there doesn't appear to be any sort of plan to increase the health workforce or make training in these valuable jobs very attractive and easy. Labour were told five years ago by Dr Ian Powell that there were three problems with the health service "workforce shortages, workforces shortages and workforce shortages". This has got considerably worse under their watch. Covid is no excuse. While we were covid free we had a golden opportunity to recruit all those burnt out staff who were nursing covid around the world.
IMO it is another case of the Professional Managerial Class (and their party of choice, Labour) thinking they were the most important part of the health system and that they knew best)
Consumer did this test once, they had the same person go to five different dentists. That person got five different diagnoses. Something like that (it was a while ago).
If dental was free and universal, people could get second opinions and go with the least invasive procedure. Who wants a root canal when a filling will be enough?
My nect nearest dentist is about 50 mins away, which makes it a half day operation, I'm time poor most of the time as it is
ae, country life. Thing is, with low cost dental care, other people can do the second opinion hunting and this will change the culture of over egging that exists in the dental sector.
Do you live in Auckland bwaghorn (1.2)? I ask because before hubby and I moved from suburban Auckland to Central Otago just over five years ago we were paying horrific prices for our dental services up there. I guess high overheads could be partially to blame,
Prices and (the dental work carried out) down here are pretty good in comparison to our previous Auckland dental experiences, particularly the cost.
For instance, last Wednesday I paid $130 for a # tooth filling plus an xray and a clean. Previous dental work done locally has cost about the same. Can’t complain about that.
no rural only one dentist for miles so they can charge what they like
Thanks TM (1) you got it in one there. Well put.
NZCTU neutered class collaborationist? FFS. Have you seen their FPA campaign going on right now from town to town? Have you ever met Tali Williams CTU Strategic Director ? Daughter of a militant Seafarer, FIRST Union activist and leader. Organiser in many campaigns. https://esra.nz/people-learn-using-power-interview-tali-williams/
[typo fixed in e-mail address – Incognito]
First, Unite, Etū and Maritime Unions and Meatworkers etc. are great unions–the dead weight on the CTU is the state sector, the PSA in particular. This partly arises out of the State Sector Act–an essential part of Rogernomics and the enduring neo liberal Parliamentary consensus.
FPAs are a great development–but no strikes–so it is a class peace trade off that will potentially assist thousands of non union members, like National awards catered for compulsory union members for decades, which is a different category from class left active members.
I work for the PSA with a fixed term role; you have this image of them as a union for the Wellington elite. I used to think that, but I was wrong. Right now we have just settled an agreement for our border security workers ; along with E Tu and NUPE. You know what they do eh? They stand for hours every day as you go through the airport and have to follow the Airport company and international instructions around airport security, They can't even get a proper 10 minute break. During COVID, many were sent off to MIQ. Then there are all those other PSA members who are there when you arrive ; from Customs and MPI. Some of our members start work at 2am or 3am to suit the incoming flights (and you could say the elitist demands from travellers). And the abuse is terrible. Can I ask you to have a look at the community membership of the PSA as well, including home care workers? There’s no doubt PSA, NZEI and NZNO are active members of the CTU, but they also have members who are struggling to earn Living Wage. And they work actively with other unions, PS I am a Life member of E Tu.
Most kiwi savers haven't lost a thing . my 12 year 0ld one is at 2.5% lifetime gain,(better than it would have got in the bank, as I can't access it for 14 years it'll probably do better than that, mines in growth mode, anyone one coming up to retirement should be in conservative so its just negative to beat the doom drum .
On the bright side (?), real estate is still vastly overpriced so there's room for more 'tanking' there.
“How do we get through 2023?”
The basic home garden will help if you plant silverbeet onions courgettes lettuce cherry tomatoes carrots cabbage and rhubarb.
Growing parsley mint and chives, rosemary and sage, all help.
If you don't have room try the bucket garden idea. The first 4 of these grow easily, and are able to be used in most dishes.
If that is not possible for you…
Look for wartime recipes. They made a great deal with limited ingredients.
Look up recipes like Empire meat loaf.
You get twice the product for the meat used. The recipe can be made into a variety of other products. (Chick peas and refried beans to replace meat.)
Look for their meatless recipes, eggless recipes, and ways to get sweetness when sugar was scarce.
Simple ginger loaf. (never fails) and can have fruit added to change it up.
Have a good supply of spices and herbs salt and pepper. Most are in the $2 to $3 range. Golden syrup to help with the egg costs when baking. Also I have discovered a small packet of dried coconut milk, great in stir fries and no waste.
Flour and derivatives may get scarce, so to have at least 5kg on hand in a sealed container. Plain is best, you can use it more ways. Yeast powder, baking soda and baking powder as rising agents are needed as well.
Lookup "In season fruit and vegetables" the look for recipes using them, as they are usuall cheaper.
Clean out your cupboard and use stored stuff first, freeze left overs for putting in stews casseroles soups or pies.
Others will have other useful ideas I am sure.
A good time for us all to make sure we are not wasting food (by buying to much perishable stuff) . We need to be doing this anyway for the plannet.
–Feed a whole street on 1kg of mince–as ACT MP Muriel Newman used to blather on about. But I get where you are coming from Patricia, practical measures to help us get by in these tough times are definitely required.
Solar panels and inverters should be installed all across the country, and rain water collection systems too–but with the likes of private/corporatised water companies, and power companies, they can actually penalise users for doing the above!
I have saved $80 per fortnight, using some of these recipes. If we still had a garden I could have saved more. It all helps.
Another thing we do is write a list of what we need from one weekly/fortnightly town visit using our small car. Often a loop to do 4 or 5 things to limit driving.
I am not one for austerity, and believe a little of what you like keeps life from being dull, so we plan our treats into each week.
We buy the coffee we like, but don't buy coffees out as we feel they are overpriced, and we have until lately had lunch at an outdoor verandah of a cafe with friends, though rising covid infections have stymied that.
We use price comparisons and have donated/sold anything we no longer use, and even a few items sold aids the budget in tighter times on a benefit or pension.
Many look for a "one off fix" in tight times, like selling a vehicle boat or other larger item to clear smaller debts, but a bit of careful planning does help keep up with price rises.
Those who lose work if a firm fails have different issues. A tightening economy affects employment sadly. We all need to help each other more than ever as a community, and not fall for the NACT dialogue and false premise of individual bootstrap politics.
Thanks for your replies Tiger Mountain and Anker.
Peter Zeihan on Twitter and the rising cost of capital. He accurately predicted all of this years ago:
Paul Krugman does not agree
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/18/opinion/interest-rates-fed.html
I am interested – but paywalled. What is the gist of his argument?
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/21/opinion/inflation-interest-rates-fed.html
The above is from the previous article he wrote on this.
“We’re still probably feeling the effects of pandemic spending: Households saved much of the aid they received, and consumer demand has stayed strong as they spend down those savings. But eventually, the boost to the economy from pandemic aid will fade away.
And once that happens, we’ll probably be back where we were before the pandemic, with weak private investment demand holding interest rates down.
Why will investment demand be weak? Last time I wrote about this I stressed demography — the drastic slowdown in growth of the working-age population — plus what looks like disappointing rates of technological progress. That’s still my story, but let me now put it a different way.
One well-known concept in macroeconomics is the accelerator effect. This says that investment spending generally reflects not the level of G.D.P. but the expected change in G.D.P. The logic is that investment spending is only high when businesses want to increase their capacity, which happens only when demand is growing.
This tells us that investment spending will only remain high if we expect rapid economic growth. And what we know now doesn’t support that expectation.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/18/opinion/interest-rates-fed.html
He goes on to add that growth is likely to be less in future. Partly because of USA demography (both lower fertility and immigration) and partly because the gain of what he calls a midlife crisis in technology. Saying the gain from computers and networks has been realised.
I might offer a negation – government demand for money to pay out make social security payments and an end to net savings inputs as baby boomers retire (thus his 2025ish forecast being countered with this other effect by 2030).
Thanks for this. Apologies for the late response.
I would enjoy seeing a debate between Krugman and Zeihan. Both are smart people and bring differing viewpoints to the argument. Krugman would be obviously more grounded in economics per se, but Zeihan brings a deeper set of drivers around geography, demography and security to the table, that I think conventional economists have overlooked for much of the post WW2 era.
Archived here:
https://archive.ph/shkWt
2022 was when the narrative changed with covid,and the government relaxed to a dying with Covid Policy,we have lost more to Covid then Soldiers in Gallipoli.
Reducing policy such as masks on planes,and vaccine requirements for international visitors was an over extension,that increased demand on primary health care,hospitals and delayed selective surgery,with all its concomitant problems.
The excess death toll this year in NZ, will be around 15%,and will most likely see the first decrease in life expectancy in 50 years.
The reserve funds (for covid resurgence) have been siphoned off for 3 waters,and this is all debt funded pork bone politics.
Government debt is already 9 billion ahead of budget,(in the first 3 months) difficulty with borrowing has meant housing corp debt will now come directly from government borrowing,interest rates will finish next year at around 6% ( margin over US fed 5-5.25%)
Not seeing anyone providing solutions to remove cost from the economy.
https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/8932307/?utm_source=showcase&utm_campaign=visualisation/8932307
https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/11164853/?utm_source=showcase&utm_campaign=visualisation/11164853
I think your doom and gloom on death toll is bullshit. You are confounding "with Covid "and OF Covid ". NZs life expectentcy has risen by approx 18 months since Covid struck and medical advances have cut the Covid toll dramaticly.
Most people, as we have been told for a while now who have or are dying WITH covid, already had co-morbidities and therefore don't shift the excess deaths ratio that much.
It is undereporting as excess deaths are running at around 15%
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/excess-mortality-p-scores-average-baseline?country=NZL~AUS
Yes, under-reporting is an (known) issue but not all excess deaths have Covid-19 as contributing or even causative factor. There was an uptick in other respiratory viruses as well.
Other respiratory viruses including influenza,did not have the mortality rate that is apparent now,even due the 2017 influenza epidemic that saw over 800 deaths across Australasia and had significantly lower ED admissions.
https://twitter.com/OYCar/status/1593549661016854528?cxt=HHwWgMDUzai-tp0sAAAA
As we have similar population demographics,diet,climatology,we can use Australian data to map onto NZ.As deaths from Homicides,vehicles,and water are fairly stable,we can pose that deaths are either from other causes or that there is simply a reversion to the mean.
The excess death toll in Australia and NZ are similar and we will see a decrease in life expectancy in both Jurisdictions,which at present seems to be a neat acturial fact,
https://twitter.com/KarenCutter4/status/1590149045879996416?cxt=HHwWgIDUubuIrJEsAAAA
Thanks for that interesting info. Unfortunately, I don’t have the time to dig up the data but the excess deaths in NZ are much higher than explained by Covid-19 as contributing or causative factor. So, the other likely (!) causes of death are other respiratory illnesses such as the flu, which caused lower death rates in the previous couple of years, and possibly (!) other medical causes of death, e.g., because of postponed care in other health areas. I don’t think anybody really knows at this stage – the data are collected and undoubtedly being analysed. My main point is that excess death cannot all be contributed to Covid-19 in NZ (and elsewhere).
The UK death rate is also higher this year.
And more cases of long term illness.