election 2011

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Harawira / MP truce breaking?

Written By: - Date published: 8:36 am, April 9th, 2011 - Comments Off on Harawira / MP truce breaking?

The first cracks are appearing in the agreement between Hone Harawira and the Maori Party not to stand against each other in electorates.

Little impact from Hughes affair, NZF on the rise

Written By: - Date published: 9:32 pm, April 8th, 2011 - 50 comments

The latest Roy Morgan poll shows little impact from the Darren Hughes affair to date. We still don’t know how the investigation will play out but the poll suggests dithering leadership matters less than economic fundamentals. The big news, though, is that New Zealand First would be back under these numbers.

John Key: let me eat cake

Written By: - Date published: 12:00 pm, April 8th, 2011 - 68 comments

Labour’s candidate for Wairarapa, Michael Bott, on this out of touch government: “John Key smiles and waves for the cameras in Christchurch then jumps on a plane to Cape Kidnappers to spend the equivalent of a pensioner’s yearly income on one-off novelty dining with his wife – you can’t get more different than that.”

This brighter future

Written By: - Date published: 12:49 pm, April 6th, 2011 - 26 comments

Dying in a ditch over roads

Written By: - Date published: 11:46 am, April 5th, 2011 - 9 comments

MartyG raises some very important points in his latest post here. Transport is Auckland’s biggest issue right now. By dying in a ditch over roads with only 18 per cent support for not having rail to the Shore and 79 per cent for, NACT would hand Auckland to a re-energised opposition on a plate.

Chose a brighter future?

Written By: - Date published: 7:27 am, April 4th, 2011 - 100 comments

With news now that a starving boy was found eating cockroaches, and that impoverished elderly are eating catfood, the plight of the underclass is getting nothing but worse.  Is this the “brighter future” that National promised?…

Tizard not coming back

Written By: - Date published: 10:14 am, April 3rd, 2011 - 66 comments

Judith Tizard won’t take Labour’s vacant seat in Parliament. It’s the right thing to do. It’s only a quirk that we should be looking back to a list written in 2008 to fill a seat for 6 months now. Tizard and the next four on the 2008 list aren’t on the 2011 list. Their lives have moved on. Better for the seat to go to someone with a Parliamentary future – Louisa Wall.

The Politics of the Three R’s: Roads, Reconstruction, Resentment

Written By: - Date published: 11:58 am, March 29th, 2011 - 11 comments

In Sunday’s Baden-Württemburg state election, the Green party was the highest polling party. Their leader will become the first Green ‘Minister President’ in Germany. Regular guest poster ChrisH takes inspiration from this victory for New Zealand, and sees a formula for a Left victory this year.

Armstrong on Key’s thinking

Written By: - Date published: 12:07 pm, March 22nd, 2011 - 30 comments

John Armstrong’s contacts in National are telling him that Working for Families and student loans are the targets for cuts in this year’s budget. He also reveals the real reason for National opposing the widely-supported earthquake levy: putting on a tax would be an admission that tax cuts for the rich were a mistake in the first place.

A hell of a speech

Written By: - Date published: 10:40 am, March 22nd, 2011 - 74 comments

“The worldwide recession is not your fault… You are being softened up for cuts in social spending… It’s easy to see the people this government is looking after. If you are a bank boss on $5.6million, helping cause a recession, you get an extra five thousand a week. If you are on the minimum wage – you get an extra 25 cents an hour.”

No faith in Nats’ economic ‘plan’

Written By: - Date published: 8:53 am, March 15th, 2011 - 125 comments

So, how are you enjoying your brighter future? Not too flash, eh? GST up. Wages down. No jobs. More crime. Earthquakes. Oil and food shocks. No bloody cycleway. Discretionary income (after tax, housing, food, transport) is down about 15%. No wonder Kiwis don’t believe Key and National can deliver on their promises.

Ruling out Hone

Written By: - Date published: 6:30 am, March 15th, 2011 - 77 comments

Labour leader Phil Goff has ruled out working with Hone Harawira even if Mr Harawira heads a party of several MPs.  I think it’s a foolish decision and I think the reasons don’t stack up.  Instead of ruling out Hariwria, Labour should rise to the challenge.

Powerless

Written By: - Date published: 1:56 pm, March 2nd, 2011 - 61 comments

The man tipped to be National’s next leader, Simon Power, has announced he will not be standing at the next election. The reasons are obvious. As a decent man and an old fashioned caring Tory, Power has no heart for the direction National want to take New Zealand. His resignation is a sign that within the party, the dry right have finally taken total control the idealogical reigns and there is no longer a place for liberal wets like Power.

Trends good for Left, much work to do

Written By: - Date published: 7:25 am, February 21st, 2011 - 80 comments

It can be depressing to see a week of the government on the ropes and then polls showing National with an apparently commanding lead. But lets go beyond the shallow analysis offered by the talking heads and look at the trends. The Left has more than halved the Right’s lead since its peak. The question is: can the Left close the remaining gap in time?

Not for sale – first flyers

Written By: - Date published: 12:00 pm, February 15th, 2011 - 45 comments

To avoid another three years of backhanders to the rich, falling wages, rising unemployment, and asset sales, we have nine months to chip away at National’s support. As in 2008, The Standard will be running a campaign offering flyers etc for your to print off and deliver around your neighbourhood. Privatisation is an obvious first target.

Nats drop 6% on privatisation announcement

Written By: - Date published: 12:56 pm, February 5th, 2011 - 65 comments

OK, that title is pure spin. National has dropped from 55% to 49% in the latest Roy Morgan, and Labour’s up from 29% to 34.5%. But that just shows the last poll was a rogue. Now, normal transmission, and National’s decline, has resumed. When you look at the Nat/ACT and Lab/Green/New Zealand First potential coalitions – the race is tight and closing fast.

Our election

Written By: - Date published: 12:19 pm, February 3rd, 2011 - 68 comments

John Key has been less cunning than some thought he would be. Going for a November election, he thinks, will let him leverage off the World Cup mini-boom, and enhance running Michael Jones and Inga Tuigamala as candidates. But it means 5 months for the Budget cuts to hurt and gives us 5 more months to work. So, what are we going to do?

Principles

Written By: - Date published: 8:00 pm, February 2nd, 2011 - 45 comments

So John Key has flip flopped and decided to rule out working with Winston Peters again.  He’s trying to portray that as a principled decision, about running an “aspirational” government.  So why did he need to spend so many months working out what his principles are?  No, it’s a political decision.  Key thinks he can squeeze a little more milage out of flogging the dead horse that is Winston Peters.

Key press conference: November 26 election

Written By: - Date published: 12:09 pm, February 2nd, 2011 - 182 comments

The PM has called a surprise press conference for 12:45 today, and is tipped to announce a November 26th election date.  A further “major announcement” is also expected.

Update:  Election date November 26 confirmed.

Time for the Goffice to step up to the plate

Written By: - Date published: 11:36 am, January 29th, 2011 - 137 comments

We face a stark choice this year: a Labour-led government, which will create fairer tax and invest in jobs and innovation, or National-led government, which will govern for the kleptocracy, giving them tax cuts, then selling our assets and slashing our public services to pay for them. So why is the Goffice doing such a bad job making the case?

6 quick reasons why asset sales suck

Written By: - Date published: 6:00 pm, January 26th, 2011 - 83 comments

While we’re all eagerly awaiting Tracy Waktins et al’s reviews of John Key’s controversial decision to wear a mauve tie in his state of the nation speech, I thought I would look at some of the reasons why asset sales are such a stupid idea.

Granny sez: f**k the kids

Written By: - Date published: 7:23 am, January 21st, 2011 - 151 comments

It’s always so wonderful to load up Granny Herald and see some wealthy late middle-aged grump (I’m picking this one is John Roughan) taking a swipe at the poor in the editorial. Today, Granny says we can’t afford to give mums more paid leave or more Working for Families for young kids. Hmm. But we can still afford those tax cuts for the rich?

New Zealand’s Electoral Wild Card

Written By: - Date published: 10:34 am, January 18th, 2011 - 26 comments

Will New Zealand First get back into Parliament after the election? If they do, it changes everything. A range of new governing coalitions become possible – both National and Labour-led. Can the Left trust Winston Peters to side with Labour over National? Could a Left+NZF government work? Jenny looks at the issues.

Hone: Maori Party has lost its way

Written By: - Date published: 8:30 am, January 18th, 2011 - 61 comments

Wow. The first edition of Hone Harawira’s new opinion column in the Sunday Star Times is a jaw-dropping read. He frankly states the party has sold out it values for cabinet seats – put coalition before kaupapa. It’s a brazen attack on Tariana Turia, and confirmation he intends to stay with the Maori Party and, some day, lead it back to its roots.

Privatisation stalking-horses on the hoof

Written By: - Date published: 2:30 pm, January 17th, 2011 - 15 comments

The Herald today has an article that serves as a stalking-horse for privatisation of public assets. Privatisation is a core part of National’s agenda- it will have to push for it in some form at the election. Articles like this one are all about softening us up for that campaign.

Labour’s Greatest Challenge for 2011 – consistency

Written By: - Date published: 7:45 pm, January 16th, 2011 - 23 comments

Recently, I did a post on how Labour should be focused on creating an over-arching narrative that embodies its broad set of policies. This should make Labour’s vision loud and clear in election year. While Labour continues to rebuild policy, I have a number of ideas on how Labour could best deliver a new narrative […]

Old guard moving on, really?

Written By: - Date published: 9:35 am, January 16th, 2011 - 34 comments

A strange little article in the Sunday-Star Times praises National’s ‘rejuvenation’ project. Well, excuse me but 3 MPs out of 53 announcing their retirement and 2 quitting under clouds of corruption during a term hardly equals rejuvenation. In fact, National faces the same problem that Labour did – too little turnover.

Herald editing letters to make them pro-Nat

Written By: - Date published: 10:57 am, January 10th, 2011 - 35 comments

Our guest poster writes about a letter he had published in the Herald recently. A clever wee missive, it started ‘helpful’ in tone but had a sting in the tail on the inaction of Key’s do nothing government in the face of recession, unemployment, and peak oil. The Herald cut off the sting leaving a ‘pro-Key’ letter. What are they up to?

Race for 2011 wide open

Written By: - Date published: 6:48 am, January 10th, 2011 - 68 comments

Campbell has a good post on the problem of voters’ emotional reactions to Key and Goff as exemplified by the Sunday-Star Times Horizon poll (the striking thing is how little emotional response they elicit). I’ll look at the party numbers. Horizon tries to include which way the undecideds will fall – the results have National worried.

Labour’s greatest challenge for 2011?

Written By: - Date published: 12:04 pm, January 9th, 2011 - 59 comments

The Sunday Star-Times has produced an interesting article on the role of emotion in people’s voter choices leading into this year’s General Election. While the results are not great news for Labour supporters, it’s the first poll of its kind to be made public in NZ. There’s a lot of controversy over whether we ought […]

How bad’s the poll?

Written By: - Date published: 9:12 pm, January 8th, 2011 - 59 comments

Farrar and Slater are trying to knee-cap a poll in the SST tomorrow. They know the numbers because Key’s office told them. Obviously jittered. Slater says it has NZF at 8.9%. Movement of ipredict stocks suggest its bad news for Nats and Labour. If Nats are in mid-40s then they’re in danger territory. Very hard for them to find a majority.

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