COVID-19: A human adapted virus
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- Date published:
9:30 am, July 24th, 2020 - 23 comments
Categories: China, covid-19, Environment, International, science -
Tags: The Economist, vietnam
One of the things that has been obvious about COVID-19 from the start has been that it is very well adapted to humans. It has evolved a good entry system to the human airways, is often has mild symptoms, has a long pre-symptomatic infectious period, and doesn’t kill many of its hosts.
These are very good characteristics for a virus evolved to get hosts to make more copies of it’s genetic code. It gets to spread before people are aware that they have it. It didn’t cause too much alarm during its initial spread because most of its hosts got something that was like a mild flu.
By contrast, its close cousin the SARS virus wasn’t well adapted to humans. At the time it becomes infectious in a human host, the human host is aware of it. They’re running a temperature, have chills, muscle aches, headache sneezing, coughing and feeling quite sick. Those are the very things that induce people to go to doctors and hospitals. Which in turn cause our social systems to report and start to contain the disease.
Consequently SARS got identified early before it spread widely through urban populations. With its early fever aspect it was easy to test for. Elevated temperatures provided a efficient way for human societies to isolate hosts and to prevent the replication and spread of the SARS genetic code. Consequently it is effectively extinct in urban human populations
But that same subtlety of its operation has always implied that COVID-19 has been circulating in a human population for some time to evolve those characteristics. The question has where that population is?
There is a nice (but pay walled) article in the Economist that looks at this.
One of the great questions of the past six months is where sars–cov-2, the virus that causes covid-19, came from. It is thought the answer involves bats, because they harbour a variety of sars-like viruses. Yunnan, one of China’s southernmost provinces, has drawn the attention of virus hunters, as the closest-known relatives of sars–cov-2 are found there. But some think the origins of the virus are not to be found in China at all, but rather just across the border in Myanmar, Laos or Vietnam.
This is the hunch of Peter Daszak, head of EcoHealth Alliance, an organisation which researches animals that harbour diseases that move into people. Since the outbreak, in 2003, of the original sars (now known as sars–cov), scientists have paid close attention to coronaviruses. Dr Daszak says that around 16,000 bats have been sampled and around 100 new sars-like viruses discovered. In particular, some bats found in China are now known to harbour coronaviruses that seem pre-adapted to infect people. The chiropteran hosts of these viruses have versions of a protein called ace2 that closely resemble the equivalent in people. This molecule is used by sars-like viruses as a point of entry into a cell.
That such virological diversity has so far been found only in China is because few people have looked at bats in countries on the other side of the border. Yet these places are likely to be an evolutionary hotspot for coronaviruses—one that mirrors bat diversity (see map). The horseshoe bats in Yunnan which harbour close relatives of sars–cov-2 are found across the region. Other countries are thus likely to have bats with similar viral building blocks. Dr Daszak believes it is “quite likely that bats in Myanmar, Laos and Vietnam carry similar sars-related coronaviruses, maybe a huge diversity of them, and that some of them could be close to sars–cov-2”.
Economist: “SARS-CoV-2 will look beyond China“
One of the strong supporting arguments to support this has been the very low rates of infection in Vietnam (412 confirmed cases) and Cambodia (198 confirmed cases). Relative to the population levels of 95+ million and 16+ million respectively, these have been extraordinarily low.
Both states are authoritarian and, especially in the case of Vietnam, have been intensely proactive with dealing with COVID-19. While there don’t appear to have been any excessive mortality level studies on these states, there also haven’t been evidence of hiding of cases either.
Vietnam is an authoritarian, one-party state which is notoriously secretive about sharing information.
But most experts believe Vietnamese authorities are being honest about coronavirus statistics.
Huong Le Thu, an analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, told the ABC that given international organisations, foreign epidemiologists and even Australia’s ambassador to Hanoi have expressed confidence in the data, she had “no reason” to doubt the figures.
The Reuters news agency reported none of the 13 funeral homes it contacted in Hanoi have seen an increase in funerals amid the pandemic.
“I know I sound like I’ve drunk the Kool-Aid, but I don’t see any alarm bells ringing about the accuracy or lack of transparency in the numbers,” said Sharon Kane, Vietnam country director at Plan International, an NGO that works on public health.
Radio New Zealand: “How has Vietnam, a developing nation, had no Covid deaths?“
When you look at the list of COVID-19 cases in Vietnam or Cambodia, what does become obvious that they have excessive representation in people who grew up in other areas of the world.
John Bell, a professor of medicine at the University of Oxford, says everyone thought there would be a flood of cases in Vietnam because the country is right across the border from China. Yet Vietnam has reported only 300 in a population of 100m, and no deaths. The country did not have a great lockdown either, he adds. Nobody could work out what was going on.
One explanation, he suggests, is that Vietnam’s population is not as immunologically “naive” as has been assumed. The circulation of other sars-like viruses could have conferred a generalised immunity to such pathogens. So, if a new one emerged in the region, it was able to take hold in the human population only when it travelled all the way to central China—where people did not have this natural resistance.
This would tie in with the idea that infection with one coronavirus can provide protection against others, and that even in countries away from the evolutionary cauldron of South-East Asia part of the population may have some protection against the current pandemic. In particular, there are suggestions that protection might be conferred mainly via part of the immune system called t-cells (which work by killing virus-infected cells) rather than via antibodies (which work by gumming up pathogens). If that is the case, then serological studies which look at antibodies may be underestimating natural immunity.
All of which means that searching the reservoirs of bats of Vietnam, Cambodia, and Laos for a exact or very closer match for COVID-19 would be a good idea. Since the identification of the human corona virus in the common cold viruses back in the 1960s, we have had a number of identified epidemic outbreaks. SARS. MERS, and now COVID-19.
Each has caused a flurry of activity in various regions of the world and now at a global level. Two of these (SARS and MERS) were pretty obviously recent and ill-adapted hops from a host (probably a bat) directly or indirectly to humans. But COVID-19 appears to be exceptionally well adapted to humans and spreading in human societies. It is causing immense amounts of damage when it managed to spread out of whatever enclave where it was already endemic.
It’d appear to me that proactively knowing what is out there in the wild is the best way to prevent the next corona virus from the same enclave. It’d be rare for single virus variant to be endemic. Where there is one, there are likely to be more sharing similar characteristics.
Finding out the intermediate vector species or practices that allow the spread to a human population would also be very useful in preventing future epidemics. Because we’re going to see them as our population and practices keep expanding into wild areas, and as we keep shutting human hosts around the world to assist in their spread.
As for the mystery of the origin of covid-19, more answers will come when the who mission takes place, perhaps in August. The critical steps that led a South-East Asian bat virus to start a pandemic could have happened inside or outside of China—whether in wild-animal markets or farms, or in traders or hunters. The virus may have jumped directly from bats into people, or come via an intermediate species. The story is waiting to be told.
Economist: “SARS-CoV-2 will look beyond China“
As a side note, the wacky conspiracy theories that any human was capable of designing these characteristics into a virus are pretty ludicrous. As a technical species, we simply don’t have the genetic subtlety to design something like COVID-19. Much the same applies to the idea that a release of the naturally occurring sample of the virus from a lab being of significance is just stupid and ignorant. At some stage the virus would would have escaped from whatever human enclave it was in – and infected the rest of the world.
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David Seymour has failed to get the sweeping cuts he wanted to the free and healthy school lunch programme, Labour education spokesperson Jan Tinetti said. ...2 hours ago - Release: Hon Willie Jackson to debate at the Prestigious Oxford UnionHon Willie Jackson has been invited by the Oxford Union to debate the motion “This House Believes British Museums are not Very British’ on May 23rd. ...5 hours ago
- Members Bill will prevent Māori land confiscations
Green Party MP Hūhana Lyndon says her Public Works (Prohibition of Compulsory Acquisition of Māori Land) Amendment Bill is an opportunity to right some past wrongs around the alienation of Māori land. ...22 hours ago - TIKANGA IS NOT LAW. IT IS CULTURAL INDOCTRINATION.
A senior, highly respected King’s Counsel with decades of experience in our law courts, Gary Judd KC, has filed a complaint about compulsory tikanga Māori studies for law students - highlighting the utter depths of absurdity this woke cultural madness has taken our society. The tikanga regulations will compel law ...24 hours ago - Release: National won’t commit to full Nelson Hospital upgradeThe Government needs to be clear with the people of the Nelson Marlborough region about the changes it is considering for the Nelson Hospital rebuild, Labour health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall said. ...1 day ago
- Release: Labour calls for fast track list to be releasedMinisters must front up about which projects it will push through under its Fast Track Approvals legislation, Labour environment spokesperson Rachel Brooking said today. ...2 days ago
- Release: National gaslights women fighting for equal payNational has scrapped the pay equity taskforce that fights for equal pay for women and looks at ethnic pay gaps. ...6 days ago
- Release: More job cuts, fewer houses under NationalThe Government is again adding to New Zealand’s growing unemployment, this time cutting jobs at the agencies responsible for urban development and growing much needed housing stock. ...6 days ago
- Release: Children fall deeper through the cracks in Govt cutsWith Minister Karen Chhour indicating in the House today that she either doesn’t know or care about the frontline cuts she’s making to Oranga Tamariki, we risk seeing more and more of our children falling through the cracks. ...6 days ago
- Release: Labour honours memory of Sir Robert MartinThe Labour Party is saddened to learn of the death of Sir Robert Martin, a globally renowned disability advocate who led the way for disability rights both in New Zealand and internationally. ...6 days ago
- Release: 130,000 cattle saved from live exportLabour is calling for the Government to urgently rethink its coalition commitment to restart live animal exports, Labour animal welfare spokesperson Rachel Boyack said. ...7 days ago
- Central Bank makes clear Government is pouring fuel on housing crisis fireToday’s Financial Stability Report has once again highlighted that poverty and deep inequality are political choices - and this Government is choosing to make them worse. ...1 week ago
- New unemployment figures paint bleak pictureThe Green Party is calling on the Government to do more for our households in most need as unemployment rises and the cost of living crisis endures. ...1 week ago
- Release: National’s job cuts already starting to bite as unemployment risesUnemployment is on the rise and it’s only going to get worse under this Government, Labour finance spokesperson Barbara Edmonds said. Stats NZ figures show the unemployment rate grew to 4.3 percent in the March quarter from 4 percent in the December quarter. “This is the second rise in unemployment ...1 week ago
- Release: National hiking transport costs for families and young New ZealandersWeekly expenses will grow for more than 1.6 million New Zealanders as the Government ends free and half price public transport fares tomorrow. ...1 week ago
- Release: Labour welcomes EU free trade agreementThe New Zealand Labour Party welcomes the entering into force of the European Union and New Zealand free trade agreement. This agreement opens the door for a huge increase in trade opportunities with a market of 450 million people who are high value discerning consumers of New Zealand goods and ...1 week ago
- Surprise: Landlord tax cuts don’t trickle downThe Green Party is renewing its call for rent controls following reports of rental prices hitting an all-time high. ...1 week ago
- Release: $1.7b for no increase in access to medicineThe National-led Government continues its fiscal jiggery pokery with its Pharmac announcement today, Labour Health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall says. “The government has increased Pharmac funding but conceded it will only make minimal increases in access to medicine”, said Ayesha Verrall “This is far from the bold promises made to fund ...1 week ago
- Release: National should heed Tribunal warning and scrap coalition commitment with ACTThis afternoon’s interim Waitangi Tribunal report must be taken seriously as it affects our most vulnerable children, Labour children’s spokesperson Willow-Jean Prime. ...1 week ago
- Release: More accountability for preventable workplace deaths this Workers’ Memorial DayLabour is calling for more accountability for preventable workplace deaths because everybody who goes to work deserves to come home safely. ...1 week ago
- Gaza: Aotearoa Must Support Independent Investigation into Mass GravesTe Pāti Māori are demanding the New Zealand Government support an international independent investigation into mass graves that have been uncovered at two hospitals on the Gaza strip, following weeks of assault by Israeli troops. Among the 392 bodies that have been recovered, are children and elderly civilians. Many of ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Working together on consistent support for veterans this Anzac DayOur two-tiered system for veterans’ support is out of step with our closest partners, and all parties in Parliament should work together to fix it, Labour veterans’ affairs spokesperson Greg O’Connor said. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Penny drops – but what about Seymour and Peters?Stripping two Ministers of their portfolios just six months into the job shows Christopher Luxon’s management style is lacking, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins said. ...2 weeks ago
- Another ‘Stolen Generation’ enabled by court ruling on Waitangi Tribunal summonsTonight’s court decision to overturn the summons of the Children’s Minister has enabled the Crown to continue making decisions about Māori without evidence, says Te Pāti Māori spokesperson for Children, Mariameno Kapa-Kingi. “The judicial system has this evening told the nation that this government can do whatever they want when ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Budget blunder shows Nicola Willis could cut recovery fundingIt appears Nicola Willis is about to pull the rug out from under the feet of local communities still dealing with the aftermath of last year’s severe weather, and local councils relying on funding to build back from these disasters. ...2 weeks ago
- Further environmental mismanagement on the cardsThe Government’s resource management reforms will add to the heavy and ever-growing burden this Government is loading on to our environment. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: RMA changes will be a disaster for environmentThe Government is making short-sighted changes to the Resource Management Act (RMA) that will take away environmental protection in favour of short-term profits, Labour’s environment spokesperson Rachel Brooking said today. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Labour supports urgent changes to emergency management systemLabour welcomes the release of the report into the North Island weather events and looks forward to working with the Government to ensure that New Zealand is as prepared as it can be for the next natural disaster. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Labour calls for New Zealand to recognise PalestineThe Labour Party has called for the New Zealand Government to recognise Palestine, as a material step towards progressing the two-State solution needed to achieve a lasting peace in the region. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Three strikes law political posturing of worst kindThe Government is bringing back a law that has little evidential backing just to look tough, Labour justice spokesperson Duncan Webb said. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Government cuts unbelievably target child exploitation, violent extremism, ports and airpor...Some of our country’s most important work, stopping the sexual exploitation of children and violent extremism could go along with staff on the frontline at ports and airports. ...2 weeks ago
- Three strikes has failed before and will fail againResurrecting the archaic three-strikes legislation is an unwelcome return to a failed American-style approach to justice. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Environmental protection vital, not ‘onerous’The Government’s Fast Track Approvals Bill will give projects such as new coal mines a ‘get out of jail free’ card to wreak havoc on the environment, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins said today. ...2 weeks ago
- Ferris – Three Strikes targets those ‘too brown to be white’The government's decision to reintroduce Three Strikes is a destructive and ineffective piece of law-making that will only exacerbate an inherently biased and racist criminal justice system, said Te Pāti Māori Justice Spokesperson, Tākuta Ferris, today. During the time Three Strikes was in place in Aotearoa, Māori and Pasifika received ...2 weeks ago
- Release: Govt cuts doctors and nurses in hiring freezeCuts to frontline hospital staff are not only a broken election promise, it shows the reckless tax cuts have well and truly hit the frontline of the health system, says Labour Health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall. ...3 weeks ago
- Fast-track submissions period must be extendedThe Green Party has joined the call for public submissions on the fast-track legislation to be extended after the Ombudsman forced the Government to release the list of organisations invited to apply just hours before submissions close. ...3 weeks ago
- Release: Progress on climate will be undone by GovtNew Zealand’s good work at reducing climate emissions for three years in a row will be undone by the National government’s lack of ambition and scrapping programmes that were making a difference, Labour Party climate spokesperson Megan Woods said today. ...3 weeks ago
- Decisions on Wellington City Council’s District Plan
The Minister Responsible for RMA Reform, Chris Bishop, today released his decision on twenty recommendations referred to him by the Wellington City Council relating to its Intensification Planning Instrument, after the Council rejected those recommendations of the Independent Hearings Panel and made alternative recommendations. “Wellington notified its District Plan on ...1 hour ago - Rape Awareness Week: Government committed to action on sexual violenceRape Awareness Week (6-10 May) is an important opportunity to acknowledge the continued effort required by government and communities to ensure that all New Zealanders can live free from violence, say Ministers Karen Chhour and Louise Upston. “With 1 in 3 women and 1 in 8 men experiencing sexual violence ...1 hour ago
- Smarter lunch programme feeds more, costs lessAssociate Education Minister David Seymour has today announced that the Government will be delivering a more efficient Healthy School Lunches Programme, saving taxpayers approximately $107 million a year compared to how Labour funded it, by embracing innovation and commercial expertise. “We are delivering on our commitment to treat taxpayers’ money ...3 hours ago
- Report provides insights into marine recoveryNew research on the impacts of extreme weather on coastal marine habitats in Tairāwhiti and Hawke’s Bay will help fishery managers plan for and respond to any future events, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. A report released today on research by Niwa on behalf of Fisheries New Zealand ...4 hours ago
- NZ to send political delegation to the PacificDeputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Winston Peters will lead a broad political delegation on a five-stop Pacific tour next week to strengthen New Zealand’s engagement with the region. The delegation will visit Solomon Islands, Papua New Guinea, Vanuatu, New Caledonia, and Tuvalu. “New Zealand has deep and ...4 hours ago
- Low gas production threatens energy securityThere has been a material decline in gas production according to figures released today by the Gas Industry Co. Figures released by the Gas Industry Company show that there was a 12.5 per cent reduction in gas production during 2023, and a 27.8 per cent reduction in gas production in the ...9 hours ago
- Defence industry talent, commitment recognisedDefence Minister Judith Collins tonight announced the recipients of the Minister of Defence Awards of Excellence for Industry, saying they all contribute to New Zealanders’ security and wellbeing. “Congratulations to this year’s recipients, whose innovative products and services play a critical role in the delivery of New Zealand’s defence capabilities, ...18 hours ago
- Speech to the Minister of Defence Awards of Excellence for IndustryWelcome to you all - it is a pleasure to be here this evening.I would like to start by thanking Greg Lowe, Chair of the New Zealand Defence Industry Advisory Council, for co-hosting this reception with me. This evening is about recognising businesses from across New Zealand and overseas who in ...18 hours ago
- Speech to the Sixth Annual New Zealand Government Data SummitIt is a pleasure to be speaking to you as the Minister for Digitising Government. I would like to thank Akolade for the invitation to address this Summit, and to acknowledge the great effort you are making to grow New Zealand’s digital future. Today, we stand at the cusp of ...19 hours ago
- Ceasefire agreement needed now: PetersNew Zealand is urging both Israel and Hamas to agree to an immediate ceasefire to avoid the further humanitarian catastrophe that military action in Rafah would unleash, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says. “The immense suffering in Gaza cannot be allowed to worsen further. Both sides have a responsibility to ...1 day ago
- Daily school attendance data now availableA new online data dashboard released today as part of the Government’s school attendance action plan makes more timely daily attendance data available to the public and parents, says Associate Education Minister David Seymour. The interactive dashboard will be updated once a week to show a national average of how ...1 day ago
- Ambassador to United States appointedForeign Minister Winston Peters has announced Rosemary Banks will be New Zealand’s next Ambassador to the United States of America. “Our relationship with the United States is crucial for New Zealand in strategic, security and economic terms,” Mr Peters says. “New Zealand and the United States have a ...1 day ago
- New permit proposed for recreational gold miningThe Government is considering creating a new tier of minerals permitting that will make it easier for hobby miners to prospect for gold. “New Zealand was built on gold, it’s in our DNA. Our gold deposits, particularly in regions such as Otago and the West Coast have always attracted fortune-hunters. ...1 day ago
- NZ and the UAE launch FTA negotiationsMinister for Trade Todd McClay today announced that New Zealand and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) will commence negotiations on a free trade agreement (FTA). Minister McClay met with his counterpart UAE Trade Minister Dr Thani bin Ahmed Al Zeyoudi in Dubai, where they announced the launch of negotiations on a ...1 day ago
- New Zealand Sign Language Week an opportunity for anyone to signNew Zealand Sign Language Week is an excellent opportunity for all Kiwis to give the language a go, Disabilities Issues Minister Louise Upston says. This week (May 6 to 12) is New Zealand Sign Language (NZSL) Week. The theme is “an Aotearoa where anyone can sign anywhere” and aims to ...2 days ago
- Next stop NASA for New Zealand studentsSix tertiary students have been selected to work on NASA projects in the US through a New Zealand Space Scholarship, Space Minister Judith Collins announced today. “This is a fantastic opportunity for these talented students. They will undertake internships at NASA’s Ames Research Center or its Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), where ...2 days ago
- $1.9 billion investment to keep NZ safe from crimeNew Zealanders will be safer because of a $1.9 billion investment in more frontline Corrections officers, more support for offenders to turn away from crime, and more prison capacity, Corrections Minister Mark Mitchell says. “Our Government said we would crack down on crime. We promised to restore law and order, ...2 days ago
- OECD reinforces need to control spendingThe OECD’s latest report on New Zealand reinforces the importance of bringing Government spending under control, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. The OECD conducts country surveys every two years to review its members’ economic policies. The 2024 New Zealand survey was presented in Wellington today by OECD Chief Economist Clare Lombardelli. ...2 days ago
- Agreement delivers Local Water Done Well for AucklandThe Government has delivered on its election promise to provide a financially sustainable model for Auckland under its Local Water Done Well plan. The plan, which has been unanimously endorsed by Auckland Council’s Governing Body, will see Aucklanders avoid the previously projected 25.8 per cent water rates increases while retaining ...3 days ago
- Gaza and the Pacific on the agenda with GermanyForeign Minister Winston Peters discussed the need for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, and enhanced cooperation in the Pacific with German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock during her first official visit to New Zealand today. "New Zealand and Germany enjoy shared interests and values, including the rule of law, democracy, respect for the international system ...4 days ago
- Decision allows for housing growth in Western Bay of PlentyThe Minister Responsible for RMA Reform, Chris Bishop today released his decision on four recommendations referred to him by the Western Bay of Plenty District Council, opening the door to housing growth in the area. The Council’s Plan Change 92 allows more homes to be built in existing and new ...5 days ago
- Speech to New Zealand China CouncilThank you, John McKinnon and the New Zealand China Council for the invitation to speak to you today. Thank you too, all members of the China Council. Your effort has played an essential role in helping to build, shape, and grow a balanced and resilient relationship between our two ...5 days ago
- Modern insurance law will protect Kiwi householdsThe Government is modernising insurance law to better protect Kiwis and provide security in the event of a disaster, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly announced today. “These reforms are long overdue. New Zealand’s insurance law is complicated and dated, some of which is more than 100 years old. ...6 days ago
- Government recommits to equal payThe coalition Government is refreshing its approach to supporting pay equity claims as time-limited funding for the Pay Equity Taskforce comes to an end, Public Service Minister Nicola Willis says. “Three years ago, the then-government introduced changes to the Equal Pay Act to support pay equity bargaining. The changes were ...6 days ago
- Transforming how our children learn to readStructured literacy will change the way New Zealand children learn to read - improving achievement and setting students up for success, Education Minister Erica Stanford says. “Being able to read and write is a fundamental life skill that too many young people are missing out on. Recent data shows that ...6 days ago
- NZ not backing down in Canada dairy disputeTrade Minister Todd McClay says Canada’s refusal to comply in full with a CPTPP trade dispute ruling in our favour over dairy trade is cynical and New Zealand has no intention of backing down. Mr McClay said he has asked for urgent legal advice in respect of our ‘next move’ ...6 days ago
- Stronger oversight for our most vulnerable childrenThe rights of our children and young people will be enhanced by changes the coalition Government will make to strengthen oversight of the Oranga Tamariki system, including restoring a single Children’s Commissioner. “The Government is committed to delivering better public services that care for our most at-risk young people and ...6 days ago
- Streamlining Building Consent ChangesThe Government is making it easier for minor changes to be made to a building consent so building a home is easier and more affordable, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “The coalition Government is focused on making it easier and cheaper to build homes so we can ...6 days ago
- Minister acknowledges passing of Sir Robert Martin (KNZM)New Zealand lost a true legend when internationally renowned disability advocate Sir Robert Martin (KNZM) passed away at his home in Whanganui last night, Disabilities Issues Minister Louise Upston says. “Our Government’s thoughts are with his wife Lynda, family and community, those he has worked with, the disability community in ...7 days ago
- Speech to New Zealand Institute of International Affairs, Parliament – Annual Lecture: Challenges ...Good evening – Before discussing the challenges and opportunities facing New Zealand’s foreign policy, we’d like to first acknowledge the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs. You have contributed to debates about New Zealand foreign policy over a long period of time, and we thank you for hosting us. ...7 days ago
- Accelerating airport security linesFrom today, passengers travelling internationally from Auckland Airport will be able to keep laptops and liquids in their carry-on bags for security screening thanks to new technology, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “Creating a more efficient and seamless travel experience is important for holidaymakers and businesses, enabling faster movement through ...7 days ago
- Community hui to talk about kina barrensPeople with an interest in the health of Northland’s marine ecosystems are invited to a public meeting to discuss how to deal with kina barrens, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. Mr Jones will lead the discussion, which will take place on Friday, 10 May, at Awanui Hotel in ...1 week ago
- Kiwi exporters win as NZ-EU FTA enters into forceKiwi exporters are $100 million better off today with the NZ EU FTA entering into force says Trade Minister Todd McClay. “This is all part of our plan to grow the economy. New Zealand's prosperity depends on international trade, making up 60 per cent of the country’s total economic activity. ...1 week ago
- Mining resurgence a welcome signThere are heartening signs that the extractive sector is once again becoming an attractive prospect for investors and a source of economic prosperity for New Zealand, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. “The beginnings of a resurgence in extractive industries are apparent in media reports of the sector in the past ...1 week ago
- Ō-Rākau Remembrance Bill passes first readingThe return of the historic Ō-Rākau battle site to the descendants of those who fought there moved one step closer today with the first reading of Te Pire mō Ō-Rākau, Te Pae o Maumahara / The Ō-Rākau Remembrance Bill. The Bill will entrust the 9.7-hectare battle site, five kilometres west ...1 week ago
- Government to boost public EV charging networkEnergy Minister Simeon Brown has announced 25 new high-speed EV charging hubs along key routes between major urban centres and outlined the Government’s plan to supercharge New Zealand’s EV infrastructure. The hubs will each have several chargers and be capable of charging at least four – and up to 10 ...1 week ago
- Residential Property Managers Bill to not progressThe coalition Government will not proceed with the previous Government’s plans to regulate residential property managers, Housing Minister Chris Bishop says. “I have written to the Chairperson of the Social Services and Community Committee to inform him that the Government does not intend to support the Residential Property Managers Bill ...1 week ago
- Independent review into disability support servicesThe Government has announced an independent review into the disability support system funded by the Ministry of Disabled People – Whaikaha. Disability Issues Minister Louise Upston says the review will look at what can be done to strengthen the long-term sustainability of Disability Support Services to provide disabled people and ...1 week ago
- Justice Minister updates UN on law & order planJustice Minister Paul Goldsmith has attended the Universal Periodic Review in Geneva and outlined the Government’s plan to restore law and order. “Speaking to the United Nations Human Rights Council provided us with an opportunity to present New Zealand’s human rights progress, priorities, and challenges, while responding to issues and ...1 week ago
- Ending emergency housing motels in RotoruaThe Government and Rotorua Lakes Council are committed to working closely together to end the use of contracted emergency housing motels in Rotorua. Associate Minister of Housing (Social Housing) Tama Potaka says the Government remains committed to ending the long-term use of contracted emergency housing motels in Rotorua by the ...1 week ago
- Bryce Edwards Analysis – Following the political money
Analysis by Dr Bryce Edwards – Democracy Project (https://democracyproject.nz) Political scientist, Dr Bryce Edwards. “Follow the money” is the classic directive to journalists trying to understand where power and influence lie in society. In terms of uncovering who influences various New Zealand political parties and governments, it therefore pays to ...1 hour ago - Free school lunches: Year 7 students and above to shift to alternative model
A new interim delivery model will kick in next year to allow time for a full redesign of the scheme before any more money is dedicated. ...2 hours ago - Rafah ‘last place of safety’ in Gaza, UN aid boss warnsRNZ News As Israel presses ahead with strikes in Rafah and seizing the Rafah crossing from Egypt, aid agencies are sounding the alarm of a “catastrophic humanitarian situation”. Rafah was “significant” because it was the only part in Gaza that had not been terribly damaged by the conflict, United Nations ...2 hours ago
- Foreign Affairs minister to lead Pacific delegationThe Foreign Affairs minister is heading on a five-stop Pacific tour, which he says will strengthen New Zealand's engagement in the region. ...2 hours ago
- Why we’re fighting to save Te Huia, the Hamilton-Auckland train
With funding set to be scrapped for the Hamilton-Auckland commuter train, Te Huia enthusiast Georgie Dansey argues for it to be thrown a lifeline. It’s 5.45am and the chain of my crappy old bike falls off slugging up the one hill in Hamilton. I contemplate yeeting the bike into the ...2 hours ago - Greens Call On Government To Keep Same-day Election Enrolment And Voting
On Radio New Zealand this morning, the Justice Minister stated the Government was considering ending election day enrolments. ...2 hours ago - Many people are feeling ecological grief. How can we help those whose work puts them at risk?Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Anna Cooke, Honorary Fellow, School of the Environment, The University of Queensland We feel ecological grief when we lose places, species or ecosystems we value and love. These losses are a growing threat to mental health and wellbeing globally. We all see ...2 hours ago
- Revitalizing Toronto’s downtown core after COVID-19 greatly benefits the city and the regionSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Shauna Brail, Associate Professor, Institute for Management & Innovation, University of Toronto A shift to hybrid and remote work continues to affect worker presence in Toronto’s downtown. (Shutterstock) Downtown Toronto, the core of Canada’s largest city, continues to reel from the lingering ...2 hours ago
- Government quiet on costs, building plan for Waikato prison expansionThe extra beds would take longer than the four-years covered in this week's budget announcement to deliver, the Corrections Minister told RNZ. ...3 hours ago
- Chief Electoral Officer Needs To Fall On His SwordResponding to an Auditor-General's report slamming failures in the administration of the 2023 General Election, Taxpayers’ Union Policy and Public Affairs Manager, James Ross, said: ...3 hours ago
- How many productivity apps do I have to use to become more productive?Productivity apps now make up a big chunk of the software market. But do they work? And why do they all have AI integrations? Despite being firmly on the record as a physical planner fan, I sometimes dream of something better than my pretty diary and its scrawled, ugly, interior ...4 hours ago
- Government considers removing election day voter enrolmentJustice Minister Paul Goldsmith says very few countries allow it, and New Zealand should consider changing the rules. ...4 hours ago
- Beehive Need To Lead By ExampleThe Taxpayers’ Union says the Beehive need to lead by example, following reports of more than $50,000 spent upgrading video conferencing equipment and furniture in the Prime Minister’s office. Taxpayers’ Union Campaign Manager, Connor Molloy, ...4 hours ago
- The Spinoff Power List: 50 New Zealanders you need to knowAn objective list of the 50 most powerful people in New Zealand, as judged by the Spinoff Editorial Board. It’s power list season, baby, and we want in on the action. Sure, there’s the rich list and the powerful “c-suite” list and the young people with power (hmmm) but here, ...5 hours ago
- First Nations imprisonment is already at a record high. Unless government policy changes, it will on...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Thalia Anthony, Professor of Law, University of Technology Sydney Shutterstock This article contains information on deaths in custody and the names of deceased people, and describes ongoing colonial violence towards Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people. First Nations people in Australia ...5 hours ago
- Martha isn’t Baby Reindeer’s biggest villain. So why is she painted as such?Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Alex Simpson, Senior Lecturer in Criminology, Macquarie University Netflix Baby Reindeer’s phenomenal success has much to do with its writer and lead, Richard Gadd, who plays Donny in a tender semi-autobiographical account of sexual abuse, harassment and stalking. Gadd’s story has ...6 hours ago
- Yes, adults can develop food allergies. Here are 4 types you need to know aboutSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Clare Collins, Laureate Professor in Nutrition and Dietetics, University of Newcastle KarolinaGrabowska/Pexels If you didn’t have food allergies as a child, is it possible to develop them as an adult? The short answer is yes. But the reasons why are much ...6 hours ago
- An outsider on the inside: how Ans Westra created New Zealand’s ‘national photo album’Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Paul Moon, Professor of History, Auckland University of Technology Ans Westra, self-portrait, c. 1963. National Library ref AWM-0705-F They try but invariably fail – those writers who believe they are capable of encapsulating in prose or verse the essence of ...7 hours ago
- How the lessons from Covid-19 could help us prepare for bird fluStewart Sowman-Lund looks at the growing concern around the world in this extract from The Bulletin. To receive The Bulletin in full each weekday, sign up here. What’s all this? When Covid-19 arrived on our shores in early 2020, some argued we were too slow, or crucially, ill-prepared for a pandemic. So ...7 hours ago
- As climate change amplifies urban flooding, here’s how communities can become ‘sponge cities’Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Franco Montalto, Professor of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering and Director, Sustainable Water Resource Engineering Laboratory, Drexel University Water runs into a storm drain in a Los Angeles alley on Aug. 19, 2023, during Tropical Storm Hilary. Citizen of the Planet/Universal Images ...7 hours ago
- Genesis Energy to fire up coal imports, citing increased demand, dwindling gas supplyGenesis Energy is to resume importing coal, as reduced gas supplies and increased demand add to the problems of keeping the lights on. ...7 hours ago
- The Boy in the Water: ‘Someone was struggling at a fence’
The inquest into the death of Gore toddler Lachlan Jones has turned up a new witness who says he saw two teenagers and a small child in a high vis vest in the area where the boy’s body was found the day he died. Lachie’s body was discovered face up ...8 hours ago - Te Pāti Māori comments: 'That kind of language isn't helpful'Political parties have roundly criticised Te Pāti Māori for using words like 'extermination' and 'white supremacy' in the House. ...9 hours ago
- Mental Health Minister Matt Doocey sought advice on ‘social impact bonds’ to fund servicesMinisters have sought advice on 'social impact bonds', which offer a potential return on private investment in public services. ...9 hours ago
- Managed retreat: How do we get out of the way of climate change?"Ad hoc" house buyouts after major disasters cannot continue, the Climate Change Minister says. ...9 hours ago
- Rules for property managers are scrapped. But what’s the worst that could happen?Stories from the tenancy trenches, featuring spider infestations, cupboard rats and same-sex discrimination. Lucy’s brother was living in a damp 1930s building in Mt Eden where “he had to tie the cupboard doors closed so the rats didn’t get in”. Although he shared custody of his six-year-old son, his property ...9 hours ago
- Explainer: What’s the deal with Auckland’s new water deal?Simeon Brown, Chris Luxon, and Wayne Brown climbed into a hole and announced a plan to solve Auckland’s water woes. This is how it’ll work. New Zealand’s pipes are munted. They’re cracked and leaking, and struggling to handle all the extra poos excreted by our rising population. It’s a big, ...9 hours ago
- Coutts’ call prompts urgent board meeting over SailGPDespite Sir Russell Coutts vowing SailGP wouldn’t return to Whakaraupō/Lyttelton Harbour, negotiations over 2025 are ongoing The post Coutts’ call prompts urgent board meeting over SailGP appeared first on Newsroom. ...9 hours ago
- Meet the man behind the Government’s education policyThe parallels between the Government’s education policy and those put forward by researcher Michael Johnston, is raising questions The post Meet the man behind the Government’s education policy appeared first on Newsroom. ...9 hours ago
- ‘We didn’t behave very well in NZ’, says Wakefield heirI knew Taika Waititi quite well when he was a kid. His mother lived in a tall narrow house in Aro St, and my youngest sister had a similar house two doors along. They were both single mums, they each had a son aged seven. Taika and my nephew Stepan ...9 hours ago
- Govt risks another Havelock North by undoing water protectionsOpinion: “As time passes, knowledge of the circumstances of the August 2016 outbreak will fade and its immediate impact will be lost.” This statement is from the 2017 report of the Official Inquiry into the Havelock North campylobacteriosis outbreak. The then National-led government established the inquiry after the outbreak left ...9 hours ago
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- Newsroom daily quiz, Wednesday 8 MayLoading…(function(i,s,o,g,r,a,m){var ql=document.querySelectorAll('A,DIV,A[data-quiz],DIV[data-quiz]'); if(ql){if(ql.length){for(var k=0;k<ql.length;k++){ql[k].id='quiz-embed-'+k;ql[k].href="javascript:var i=document.getElementById('quiz-embed-"+k+"');try{qz.startQuiz(i)}catch(e){i.start=1;i.style.cursor='wait';i.style.opacity='0.5'};void(0);"}}};i['QP']=r;i[r]=i[r]||function(){(i[r].q=i[r].q||[]).push(arguments)},i[r].l=1*new Date();a=s.createElement(o),m=s.getElementsByTagName(o)[0];a.async=1;a.src=g;m.parentNode.insertBefore(a,m)})(window,document,'script','https://take.quiz-maker.com/3012/CDN/quiz-embed-v1.js','qp'); Got a good quiz question? Send Newsroom your questions. The post Newsroom daily quiz, Wednesday 8 May appeared first on Newsroom. ...9 hours ago
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Presumably Trump will declare from his position as an eminent scientist that the above is impossible. His gut continues to tell him that this was a Chinese designed virus.
On a serious note it seems possible that not only is the above column possible, but it does raise the probability that there will emerge more lethal viruses. I Health System needs serious upgrading.
I'd bet on it within the current decade, and I don't gamble on anything less than a sure bet.
A more lethal virus is inevitable. Evolution happens all the time and, as viruses have a really short life cycle, viruses evolve damn fast.
The problem is that many people seem to think that everything is as it has always been and that it will always be this way and thus think that we don't need any more than what we have as far as necessary protections (like a good health system) go.
Not to mention how quickly bacteria are evolving to resist antibiotics which, in my opinion, is a far scarier proposition. A resistant strain of the Bubonic Plague would be an absolute nightmare
And the answer to that is to stop using antibiotics as much as we do. Which never seems to go down well:
Sick person: But, I need antibiotics for this common cold.
Doctor: No, you don't – you need bed rest
Sick person: But, I need to go to work…
See the problem?
I agree – some doctors throw antibiotics in when they aren't even needed. My father was a practicing GP and he always prescribed antibiotics sparingly
I've spent a while wondering if maybe the virus made the jump to humans and became endemic in some isolated population of humans quite a while ago, allowing it to evolve its improved adaptation to humans, then some intrepid traveler finally ended up catching it and bringing it out of its isolation.
In which case Wuhan just had the bad luck to be where the first superspreading event occurred in the chains of transmission.
Wasn't there an obscure report that a Covid infection was discovered in France last year?
Yeah. But IIRC that was late enough in the year that it could still be consistent with the Wuhan outbreak as the point of transfer to humans. Or not.
"endemic in some isolated population of humans quite a while ago, allowing it to evolve its improved adaptation to humans"
Wouldn't it require a fairly large population of humans for the virus to work through over time in order to acquire those adaptations? A couple of hundred people up a remote valley somewhere presumably wouldn't be enough – and therefore – do sufficiently large isolated populations actually exist for this scenario?
It would be enough if the virus had several human generations to evolve over. They're pretty much immune, remember.
Thanks for an excellent summary of that Economist article which makes a (much) more convincing case for the likely origin of sars–cov-2 (–> Covid-19) than Sørensen and Dalgleish, or the much touted Chris Martenson who has shifted to 'safer' ground.
A few will continue to insist that evil fiends in the CCP must (somehow) be to blame, because they're evil fiends. There is, however, plenty of evidence that the CCP's 'methods' would be inimicable to NZ's way of life without resorting to speculative fearmongering.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Misinformation_related_to_the_COVID-19_pandemic#Bio-engineered_virus
Side with the so called 'experts' why don't you, although they're far from convincing, doing their best to say it's inconceivable.
Martenson puts forward a reasonable theory that it could be an artificial virus, yet scientific people such as yourself dismiss him out of hand. Perhaps it's because he was miles ahead of the WHO in calling this disease a pandemic, and that mask use was essential to stop the spread, among other things. We can't have an outsider being proven right can we.
I've no problem with so-called outsiders being proven right – scientific discovery is sprinkled with examples of outsider opinion overturning expert consensus, but it's not a common occurrence. What really interests me is why some on-lookers favour outsider opinion over expert consensus – might there be other, non-science 'factors' at play?
For example, wouldn't it have been great if climate change deniers (all outsiders now) had been proven right. But now we know, and that truth will set us free, eventually.
"Not a common occurence" gives the impression it happens far more frequently than actually happens. A better description is "extremely rare occurrence".
When it does happen, it's almost always the result of an enormous amount of work to first show the flaws in the existing consensus, then convincingly demonstrating the alternative that overthrows the previous consensus.
Random off the cuff reckons from someone not actively working in that particular field are a very unlikely source of overthrowing the expert consensus. So yeah, it is indeed a very interesting question as to why some people immediately choose to believe the random off-the-cuff reckons over the considered expert consensus.
Fair enough Andre – hoped that use of the word "sprinkled", as opposed to 'littered', would give a clue as to how (extremely) uncommon / rare these 'game-changing' (urgh) 'paradigm shifts' (double urgh) are, although quantitation is problematic.
Specific examples that sprang to mind were the efforts of Nobel prize winners in Physiology or Medicine 1997 (Prusiner) and 2005 (Marshall and Warren).
"What really interests me is why some on-lookers favour outsider opinion over expert consensus.."
I'm thinking there's probably a correlation between the prevalence of conspiracy theories and bullshit expert explanation where the facts aren't supportive or have large gaps.
Last week I heard a report ( sorry don't remember when but probably NatRad as out in a paddock working ) that sewage samples from around the world have reportedly identified Covid -19 as having been around for at least 2 years. The assumption was that it needed the right enviroment to go rogue involving temperature, humidity and a suitable human host and Wuhan market may have just fitted the bill.
Given this discussion, this pre-proof essay from a science journal may be of interest to some:
"On the evolutionary epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2"
I clicked the link and got an automatic download rather than an open document. .I prefer to have some control over downloads. Cheers ..
Because it's a pdf. Perhaps have a look at your browser settings see if you can disable this function.
Always hover your cursor over a link before you click. Once you click it is up to your system and its settings as to what happens next.
The file is a pdf. If you want it to open automatically in your browser you will need a browser pdf reader.
I would have left the raw link but as I have a pdf reader extension the file contents were automatically being displayed inside the post, which made it too small to read.
The file comes from cell.com, Cell being a major publisher of scientific journals, but you are right to be cautious anyway.