Covid19 Vaccine Rollout and Global Inequality

24 comments on “Covid19 Vaccine Rollout and Global Inequality ”

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1. Macro 1

   2 February 2021 at 9:19 am

   As a global inequality driver, that makes the rollout probably bigger than the disease itself.

   As it has always been. Wealth determines who gets what first, and National interests Trump (forgive the pun) Internationalism.
2. Forget now 2

   2 February 2021 at 9:22 am

   I don't like the idea of personal choice in selection of vaccines, Ad. Think of; the evolution of antibacterial resistant bacteria that is plaguing medical systems worldwide (though that is getting less press; now that we have an actual viral plague to worry about). That is, in large part, due to; the overuse of antibiotics, which has allowed bacteria to develop resistance to these agents.

   Any use of a vaccine has to be; systematic and nationwide, if not; internationally coordinated (which, while desirable, is not politically possible). With other vaccines; held in reserve, for contingency use; if SARS-CoV-2 begins to evolve around that vaccine's immunity.

   This video is a good example of an organism's response to adaptive pressure. In this specific case; the E Coli bacterium to gradients of antibiotic concentration, but the principles are transferable to vaccine resistant viral evolution.

   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=plVk4NVIUh8
   • RedLogix 2.1

     2 February 2021 at 1:00 pm

     It's already adapting to our control measures by becoming more infectious and more lethal.

     It's a most peculiar virus indeed.
     • Poission 2.1.1

       2 February 2021 at 1:25 pm

       There are more deaths because it is more infectious,a higher rate of infection is a greater risk then a deadlier virus.

       https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski/status/1343567425107881986
       • Forget now 2.1.1.1

         2 February 2021 at 8:53 pm

         Saw this in Kucharski's thread after following up your link, Poisson:

         https://twitter.com/K_G_Andersen/status/1355005699999158276?s=20
     • Forget now 2.1.2

       2 February 2021 at 8:35 pm

       How is that peculiar, RL? That's exactly what you'd expect, and what I have been warning anyone who'd listen for a year now:

       The more time a virus replicates, the greater the chance for a(n individually low-probability) viable mutation to occur. Which will either be; selected for, or against, by environmental pressures – in this case; human attempts at controlling SARS-CoV-2 infection rates.
3. PhilA 3

   2 February 2021 at 12:43 pm

   The vacine roll out could actually make things more difficult for us.

   The Pfizer vacine is about 92% effective, the AstraZeneca one about 70% effective.

   There was a recent report from the UK (where the Pfizer vacine is not licenced for use by children, who make up ~20% of the population) stating that even if all adults were given the Pfizer vacine and all children the AstraZeneca one this would not result in herd immunity (which means that an outbreak would grow rather than fizzle out).

   Thus, even in the unlikely event of a 100% vacine take up ~13% of the population will be vulnerable to covid-19.

   The situation would be worse if we have less than a 100% take up, or if an outbreak occurs whilst the vacinations are being performed. Especially so as the vacines do not prevent people from catching and potentially passing on the disease, only in reducing its severity. Vacinated people in a partially vacinated population are potentially asymptomatic carriers able to pass it on to those not yet vacinated, but are unlikely to be tested as they have no symptoms.

   On top of that, as far as I know, no one has yet looked at the efficacy of any of the vacines in preventing long covid.
   • Snape 3.1

     2 February 2021 at 2:46 pm

     Not only is the virus FAR less dangerous to children than adults, children are also inefficient spreaders.

     Good news for third world nations where children often make up 1/2 the population.
     • PhilA 3.1.1

       2 February 2021 at 4:08 pm

       Just look at the 8% of adults for whom the vacine will be ineffective.

       That is about 3000 deaths and around 15,000 cases of long covid (assuming all 8% catch it and 1% of them die and 5% of them get long covid) unless we continue to keep covid out after vacinating everyone.
       • Snape 3.1.1.1

         2 February 2021 at 5:42 pm

         PhilA,

         “Just look at the 8% of adults for whom the vacine will be ineffective.”

         The 8% figure is fairly meaningless when taken by itself. For example, if 100% of the population is vaccinated, the 92% efficacy would drastically reduce the rate of spread, easily reaching herd immunity.
         • McFlock 3.1.1.1.1

           2 February 2021 at 6:34 pm

           If half the local population are spreaders, even inefficient ones, then 8% of the other half are in deep shit.

           Sure, there will be clusters of immunity. There will likewise be clusters of extensive community transmission.

           And that's assuming that "FAR less dangerous to children" means "no danger at all" (it doesn't) and "even in the long term" (unknown).
           • Forget now 3.1.1.1.1.1

             2 February 2021 at 8:48 pm

             That's the point where a comparison to influenza start to make sense, McFlock. We have learned to live with a surprisingly high death rate from endemic Influenza (& TB). Except for the people who don't, of course.

             I don't often bother with it, but the n in; nSARS-CoV-2 is important; designated the virus' novelty. Until we understand more about how the vaccines function in real-world populations; rather than limited (and rushed) scientific studies, then we can't be sure of anything yet.

             Hopefully some of those (hopefully as low 8% in real-world) who don't respond to; the Pfizer vaccine, may be protected by; the AstraZeneca, though I doubt that will be very close to 70%. Also, there is the problem of determining who has an insufficient response to the Pfizer before they get infected.
             • McFlock …

               2 February 2021 at 9:56 pm

               To put it bluntly, no we haven't learned to live with a high death rate from influenza or Tb.

               Both have been well controlled over recent decades.

               In a year, the USA has had almost 10% of its population get a confirmed case of covid. UK is on about 5%. That's with limited lockdowns and general inactivity as a response.

               So let's say 8% are vulnerable, and they affected at a similar rate to us/uk covid levels. 8% of 5mil is 400,000 people. 5% of that is 20,000 a year.

               Maybe the death rate for that would be in the ballpark of pneumonia and influenza combined (pneumonia is often a secondary infection to influenza). But then influenza really does almost exclusively kill pensioners, whereas covid is not so age-selective as the plan-b crowd would have us believe.

               Also, as far as we know global eradication of covid 19 might be as possible as with smallpox or polio. Unlike influenza or tb, where human-infecting strains have well-established animal reservoirs around the world so vaccines are as much about personal protection as population immunity.
               • Forget now …

                 3 February 2021 at 1:04 am

                 I was meaning we; as a species, more than we; in Aotearoa. Considering that the most likely source of nSARS-CoV-2 was an animal reservoir, I am not holding out too much hope for global eradication either.

                 I still consider it well advised to have a nationwide vaccination programme (after initial front-line high risk people are done with whatever we can get in the country) with a single vaccine (preferably Pfizer). Before moving on systematically with a different less efficacious one to try catch those who didn't produce a sufficient immune response to the first, and so on (adaptive evolution reasoning up @comment 2). Hopefully that'll get the susceptable numbers under 8%, but can't do more until we know more.
               • Snape …

                 3 February 2021 at 2:46 am

                 McFlock,

                 “In a year, the USA has had almost 10% of its population get a confirmed case of covid. UK is on about 5%. That's with limited lockdowns and general inactivity as a response.

                 So let's say 8% are vulnerable, and they affected at a similar rate to us/uk covid levels. 8% of 5mil is 400,000 people. 5% of that is 20,000 a year.”

                 I don’t get your reasoning. The virus entered the USA and UK prior to vaccines. Why are you imagining the same rate of spread in a fully vaccinated population?
                 • McFlock …

                   3 February 2021 at 2:50 pm

                   Got it from the same place you got "inefficient spreaders".
                   • Snape …

                     3 February 2021 at 5:49 pm

                     I should’ve clarified, ‘inefficient compared to adults’:

                     “A new 40,000-person study from Iceland has found that children under 15 are about half as likely as adults to be infected with COVID-19 and, when they do catch the virus, only half as likely as adults to transmit it to others.“

                     https://www.the74million.org/40000-person-iceland-study-finds-youth-under-15-half-as-likely-to-catch-and-spread-coronavirus/

                     "We now have scientific evidence, including from school openings around the world, that shows that younger children are less likely to get infected and that school openings for this age group do not substantially contribute to community transmission”, says Helen Jenkins, Associate Professor of Biostatistics at Boston University.”

                     https://globalepidemics.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/SchoolsandthePathtoZero_wFAQ.pdf
               • Snape …

                 3 February 2021 at 9:52 am

                 McFlock,

                 “But then influenza really does almost exclusively kill pensioners, whereas covid is not so age-selective as the plan-b crowd would have us believe.”

                 Nonsense.
                 The CDC (USA) reported 188 confirmed pediatric deaths from influenza during the 2019 – 2021 flu season, out of an estimated 22,000 total deaths.

                 Compare that to Covid numbers: Through December, 2020, 172 confirmed pediatric deaths out of roughly 400,000 deaths total.

                 https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2019-2020.html

                 https://www.aappublications.org/news/2020/12/29/covid-2million-children-122920

                 Take a closer look at Covid deaths by age group – you will find that the elderly are hundreds, and in some comparisons thousands of times more vulnerable than young people:

                 https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm
                 • Snape …

                   3 February 2021 at 10:29 am

                   A US based investigation found that people in the age group 18-29 are 16 times more likely to die from Covid than kids aged 5-17.

                   And seniors 85+ are 630 times more likely to die than the 18-29ers:

                   https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/investigations-discovery/hospitalization-death-by-age.html
                   • McFlock …

                     3 February 2021 at 3:07 pm

                     yawn.

                     if you want to do a deep dive and compare case mortality rates (not raw numbers) between what I said ("pensioners", i.e. 65+) and "not pensioners" for both covid and influenza, have fun with that.

                     I was working off the NZ numbers in the article I attached.
                   • Snape []

                     3 February 2021 at 6:24 pm

                     “I was working off the NZ numbers in the article I attached.”

                     Say what? Nothing there supports your claim.
                   • McFlock …

                     3 February 2021 at 9:05 pm

                     Supports the claim about the flu.

                     But you're still welcome to do a deep dive that actually compares like with like.
4. Incognito 4

   2 February 2021 at 10:03 pm

   It may be in one of the links, but to get this pandemic down to something more manageable than the current situation will require ongoing vaccinations, booster shots, and development of new vaccines, on a yearly basis, much like dealing with the flu, which is now endemic. Maybe it is not too late to buy shares now; they’re a better bet than GameStop.
   • McFlock 4.1

     2 February 2021 at 10:53 pm

     regardless of whether it's totally destroyed or just lowered to a stage where a bad year doesn't cripple ED and ICU in most countries, this is a multi-year situation.

     On the plus side, the billions thrown at research in response will have flow-on effects for diseases we all know and love. Bit like how the space race gave us velcro lol

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