Another "poll", this time National could form a govt with Act.
Hard to believe with non issue policies and lack of leadership, and the fact it's on the back of another contradictory poll. These polls are some kind of attempt at influence and not to be taken seriously.
17% undecided or refuse to answer. That's a high number. Add to that, CB always errs on the side of the Nats and I would say there's not a lot to read into this poll.
I would suggest the government has to take this seriously. What has happened in the last six months is an increasingly widespread view that the government is unable to deliver. That is not just among the government’s usual opponents, it is affecting the views of middle voters. In fact of those voters who were supportive of the government six months ago.
No doubt that is part of the reason for the most recent announcements. If I was the government I would make more of them by doing a mini budget of things that could be announced now. Not just infrastructure, but also on health and a some environment expenditure. Not an amount that would be seen as reckless. However perhaps up to a billion. The reason why now is because the budget is too far away. Some expenditure announced now could be allocated from 1 Jan or some similar close date.
Anyway I see the poll as a wake up call for the government. Given the last polls, it signifies a trend. Also not surprising ACT is moving up. I expect they will get to 3% by the election. It is no longer possible to pillory David Seymour as the Hologram from Red Dwarf. He has done a pretty good job over the least 12 months of showing he is serious for that to stick.
If the govt had publicised that mini-budget properly afterwards, people would not be falling for the line that they have not delivered anything. Comms problem, as usual.
Actually no Wayne. It signifies a trend in the Colmar Brunton poll but it is not a trend in the other two polling companies – the TV3 poll and the new one – whose name escapes me. (actually both their names escape me 😉 ) They have given the a Lab-led government a clear lead.
As I said the CB poll has always erred on the side of the Nats ever since polls were invented. I don't know why that is but it is generally accepted to be the case.
1% movements in a single poll do not signify anything – not that it will stop interested parties (including media who pay for them) applying a narrative.
My thoughts too Anne, I immediately thought back to the YouGuv poll recently published and couldn't help wondering why the big difference. I agree with you that CB polls always seem to favour the Nats. It may be interesting to see if a Newshub poll comes out soon. They have tended to be more in line with what happens come election day. Must add that Simon Bridges’ comment about Police being nothing more than ‘glorified social workers’ really ground my gears.
Ignore these Polls at our peril. Nasty attack politics is working in keeping this despicable opposition popular. Like the Repubs in USA will follow Trump regardless, clearly half our country believe their selfishness and the dirty politics of National is more important than policies designed for the majority.
It wasn't a hack, it wasn't public, "this information was not publicly available… there was access given to dealers to enable them to be a part of the buy-back scheme…the only group or individual that has shared any of this information has been the firearm—Colfo’s lawyers, Franks Ogilvie"
That's an attempt to make a musical statement in melted chocolate!
Perhaps it's meant to be I' ‘I’ll be there.’
This fits National Party approaches.
Now if you feel that you can't go on (can't go on)
Because all of your hope is gone (all your hope is gone)
And your life is filled with much confusion (much confusion)
Until happiness is just an illusion (happiness is just an illusion)
And your world around is crumbling down, darlin'
(Reach out) Come on girl reach on out for me
(Reach out) Reach out for me
Hah, I'll be there with a love that will shelter you
I'll be there with a love that will see you through
When you feel lost and about to give up (to give up) Cause your best just ain't good enough (just ain't good enough)
And you feel the world has grown cold (has grown cold)
And you're drifting out all on your own (drifting out on your own)
And you need a hand to hold, darlin'
(Reach out) Come on girl, reach out for me
(Reach out) Reach out for me
Hah, I'll be there to love and comfort you
And I'll be there to cherish and care for you
(I'll be there to always see you through, I'll be there to love and comfort you)
I can tell the way you hang your head (hang your head)
You're not in love now, now you're afraid (you're afraid)
And through your tears you look around (look around)
But there's no peace of mind to be found (no peace of mind to be found)
I know what you're thinking
You're a loner, no love of your own, but darling
This signals that Labour need firstly to get that 'non commercial free to air TV Channel' running asap so they can sway the public back to reality.
Radio NZ has turned bad and pushes National party policies hard now, and Newshub has gone off the wall so TV one is the last stand here now and we need a public affairs channel like we had when labour brought us TV7 and its "investigative journalism, but when national got elected in 2008 they killed the channel because the investigative journalism content was bad for them and may have found the dirty politics national were about to spring on labour.
A new free to air neutral channel may unwrap all the confusion,from where the issues are now muddled,and the electorate may then be less despondent and confused.
Labour put a channel up for our voice so we can have our say finally please.
Yes this poll so different from You gov. National could govern in Colman Brunson, but 17% undecided and they couldn’t govern in the margin of error
poll taken after NZ first funding issue and flow on of labour sex abuse scandal (line firmly under that with new President).
but a successful conference, spending on infrastructure (how many voters have school kids) and Simon continuing to open his big trap gives me great confidence of a good resul
Coalition was never going to completely delivers on one parties goals, let alone three. It's just lazy journalists holding the govt to a higher standard than reality can supply. And yet why would Labour crash the housing market by delievering… …getting rough sleeps off streets, building thousand of state homes, all good stuff… …solving the housing crisis when it hurt national so badly…
National cheesecake factory, sweeten cheesy swipes, is not convincing as a govt in waiting.
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The PSA are calling the Prime Minister a hypocrite for committing to increase defence spending while hundreds of more civilian New Zealand Defence Force jobs are set to be cut as part of a major restructure. The number of companies being investigated for people trafficking in New Zealand has skyrocketed ...
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Australia, Britain and European countries should loosen budget rules to allow borrowing to fund higher defence spending, a new study by the Kiel Institute suggests. Currently, budget debt rules are forcing governments to finance increases ...
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Max Harris and Max Rashbrooke discuss how we turn around the right wing slogans like nanny state, woke identity politics, and the inefficiency of the public sector – and how we build a progressive agenda. From Donald Trump to David Seymour, from Peter Dutton to Christopher Luxon, we are subject to a ...
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Another "poll", this time National could form a govt with Act.
Hard to believe with non issue policies and lack of leadership, and the fact it's on the back of another contradictory poll. These polls are some kind of attempt at influence and not to be taken seriously.
I would be taking them seriously if i wanted to stay in government
On one poll that consistently rates your opponent higher than other polls? Only if you were a fool.
It's a needle on a gauge holding a red line. If you obsess over it, you crash the plane. And it could be a faulty indicator, anyway.
Indeed, I will be ignoring this one too. Even my pet capybara scampers outside when Soimon starts soundbiting.
Capybaras are far too nice to put up with that shit. 🙂
I would be taking them seriously if I wanted to stay in government
Yeah nah.
ACT on 2% – four times what usually get?
Cloud cuckoo land.
A certain irony when Opposition just opposes and offers little positive, but the Government aims high and achieves much in two years. !3% Undecided.
46% Nat
2% Act
39% Labour
7% Green
?% NZF
17% undecided or refuse to answer. That's a high number. Add to that, CB always errs on the side of the Nats and I would say there's not a lot to read into this poll.
Anne,
I would suggest the government has to take this seriously. What has happened in the last six months is an increasingly widespread view that the government is unable to deliver. That is not just among the government’s usual opponents, it is affecting the views of middle voters. In fact of those voters who were supportive of the government six months ago.
No doubt that is part of the reason for the most recent announcements. If I was the government I would make more of them by doing a mini budget of things that could be announced now. Not just infrastructure, but also on health and a some environment expenditure. Not an amount that would be seen as reckless. However perhaps up to a billion. The reason why now is because the budget is too far away. Some expenditure announced now could be allocated from 1 Jan or some similar close date.
Anyway I see the poll as a wake up call for the government. Given the last polls, it signifies a trend. Also not surprising ACT is moving up. I expect they will get to 3% by the election. It is no longer possible to pillory David Seymour as the Hologram from Red Dwarf. He has done a pretty good job over the least 12 months of showing he is serious for that to stick.
A mini-budget worked well for Robertson about 6 weeks after the election.
Some tax threshold changes wouldn't kill them either.
If the govt had publicised that mini-budget properly afterwards, people would not be falling for the line that they have not delivered anything. Comms problem, as usual.
Given the last polls, it signifies a trend.
Actually no Wayne. It signifies a trend in the Colmar Brunton poll but it is not a trend in the other two polling companies – the TV3 poll and the new one – whose name escapes me. (actually both their names escape me 😉 ) They have given the a Lab-led government a clear lead.
As I said the CB poll has always erred on the side of the Nats ever since polls were invented. I don't know why that is but it is generally accepted to be the case.
1% movements in a single poll do not signify anything – not that it will stop interested parties (including media who pay for them) applying a narrative.
Which poll would you like them to take seriously?
My thoughts too Anne, I immediately thought back to the YouGuv poll recently published and couldn't help wondering why the big difference. I agree with you that CB polls always seem to favour the Nats. It may be interesting to see if a Newshub poll comes out soon. They have tended to be more in line with what happens come election day. Must add that Simon Bridges’ comment about Police being nothing more than ‘glorified social workers’ really ground my gears.
Missed that one. It's very offensive.
I really like Simon 🙂 Keep him on.
The Sustainable NZ Party appears to be unsustainable.
Ignore these Polls at our peril. Nasty attack politics is working in keeping this despicable opposition popular. Like the Repubs in USA will follow Trump regardless, clearly half our country believe their selfishness and the dirty politics of National is more important than policies designed for the majority.
That's always been the case RBO. Nothing new there. In the selfish, self centred stakes NZ is up there with the worst of them.
I cannot understand why this government has alienated firearms license holders who are probably the most law abiding group of citizens in New Zealand.
Then,through their total incompetence make personal details of license holders available to every Tom dick and Dirty Harry.
If you worried about last weeks poll,get ready for more bad news.
It wasn't a hack, it wasn't public, "this information was not publicly available… there was access given to dealers to enable them to be a part of the buy-back scheme…the only group or individual that has shared any of this information has been the firearm—Colfo’s lawyers, Franks Ogilvie"
https://www.beehive.govt.nz/sites/default/files/2019-12/Press%20Conference%202%20December%202019.pdf
The gun lobby are A grade A-holes, playing on people's privacy fears just so they can try and embarrass the government.
last weeks poll?…you mean this?
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/117662933/labour-ahead-while-national-dips-below-40-in-new-stuff-poll
…firearms license holders who are probably the most law abiding group of citizens in New Zealand.
Well, except for that one who went on a mass-murder spree killing 51 people recently, but is something that trivial worth mentioning? Surely not.
Then,through their total incompetence make personal details of license holders available to every Tom dick and Dirty Harry.
If your irrationalism is representative of licenced firearms owners, it's not at all difficult to understand how they've become alienated.
That's an attempt to make a musical statement in melted chocolate!
Perhaps it's meant to be I' ‘I’ll be there.’
This fits National Party approaches.
Now if you feel that you can't go on (can't go on)
Because all of your hope is gone (all your hope is gone)
And your life is filled with much confusion (much confusion)
Until happiness is just an illusion (happiness is just an illusion)
And your world around is crumbling down, darlin'
(Reach out) Come on girl reach on out for me
(Reach out) Reach out for me
Hah, I'll be there with a love that will shelter you
I'll be there with a love that will see you through
When you feel lost and about to give up (to give up)
Cause your best just ain't good enough (just ain't good enough)
And you feel the world has grown cold (has grown cold)
And you're drifting out all on your own (drifting out on your own)
And you need a hand to hold, darlin'
(Reach out) Come on girl, reach out for me
(Reach out) Reach out for me
Hah, I'll be there to love and comfort you
And I'll be there to cherish and care for you
(I'll be there to always see you through, I'll be there to love and comfort you)
I can tell the way you hang your head (hang your head)
You're not in love now, now you're afraid (you're afraid)
And through your tears you look around (look around)
But there's no peace of mind to be found (no peace of mind to be found)
I know what you're thinking
You're a loner, no love of your own, but darling
(Reach out) Come on girl reach out for me
Reach out, just look over your shoulder
I'll be there to give you all the love you need
And I'll be there you can always depend on me
I'll be there…
https://www.metrolyrics.com/reach-out-ill-be-there-lyrics-four-tops.html
This signals that Labour need firstly to get that 'non commercial free to air TV Channel' running asap so they can sway the public back to reality.
Radio NZ has turned bad and pushes National party policies hard now, and Newshub has gone off the wall so TV one is the last stand here now and we need a public affairs channel like we had when labour brought us TV7 and its "investigative journalism, but when national got elected in 2008 they killed the channel because the investigative journalism content was bad for them and may have found the dirty politics national were about to spring on labour.
A new free to air neutral channel may unwrap all the confusion,from where the issues are now muddled,and the electorate may then be less despondent and confused.
Labour put a channel up for our voice so we can have our say finally please.
Yes I vote yes to non commercial free to air TV Channel.
I think the channel colour should be Red and it should be called LIVE NZ with a BIG RED 'L'.
There we go, no need to hire an advertising agency to sort out the branding. Saved some money too! 😜
Sounds like a good idea Nick also the saving money on asking for expensive ideas, meetings and presentations about branding.
Yes this poll so different from You gov. National could govern in Colman Brunson, but 17% undecided and they couldn’t govern in the margin of error
poll taken after NZ first funding issue and flow on of labour sex abuse scandal (line firmly under that with new President).
but a successful conference, spending on infrastructure (how many voters have school kids) and Simon continuing to open his big trap gives me great confidence of a good resul
I am relaxed about victory in 2020
Sorry, what is the "Labour sex abuse scandal"? & Act getting 3% according to Dr Wayne, a great morning laugh.
Just now noticed the Extinction Rebellion logo in the organic molasses
Well spotted!
I saw the National Party logo in there somewhere too in a Rorschach matter of way.
Looks like an ant problem in the making.
Coalition was never going to completely delivers on one parties goals, let alone three. It's just lazy journalists holding the govt to a higher standard than reality can supply. And yet why would Labour crash the housing market by delievering… …getting rough sleeps off streets, building thousand of state homes, all good stuff… …solving the housing crisis when it hurt national so badly…
National cheesecake factory, sweeten cheesy swipes, is not convincing as a govt in waiting.