Daily review 07/09/2023

Written By: - Date published: 5:30 pm, September 7th, 2023 - 33 comments
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33 comments on “Daily review 07/09/2023 ”

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  1. Bearded Git 1
    7 September 2023 at 6:01 pm

    Gerard Otto has just posted the latest Talbot-Mills on fb.

    Lab 30

    Nat 36

    Gr 12

    ACT 10

    NZF 5.4

    TPM 2.4

    Ignoring Winston, and hoping he gets 4.9, this is 44.4 versus 46. So the Left is only 1.6 behind.

    Yet again the Greens poll more than ACT who seem to be trending down.

    • Kat 1.1
      7 September 2023 at 6:30 pm

      Act bleeding to National, election result could be something similar to 2005 although the difference being the votes will be spread out more with the left block just managing to form a govt. Either that or the general electorate has an epiphany, the polls are all defunct and Labour sweeps back into power.

      One must stay positive….and votewink

    • weka 1.2
      7 September 2023 at 6:52 pm

      please post the link. I'm really sick of asking regulars to do this. If you can copy and paste the numbers the URL isn't that much more.

      Fake poll numbers were posted in OM today, with no link. Having links matters.

    • bwaghorn 1.3
      7 September 2023 at 7:27 pm

      That cracks (cranks) are appearing in act, seymours band of loonies is unraveling,

    • Belladonna 1.5
      7 September 2023 at 8:03 pm

      Ignoring Winston, and hoping he gets 4.9, this is 44.4 versus 46. So the Left is only 1.6 behind.

      The allocation of seats doesn't work that way. If NZF get 4.9 – then that's wasted vote, and the share is reallocated, proportionally, to those parties which are in Parliament.
      The result would be a RW majority government (National/ACT).

      • SPC 1.5.1
        7 September 2023 at 8:20 pm

        You had to overlook the so the left is only 1.6% behind to proffer your misrepresentation of what was written.

        So a right wing government only while they hold that 1.6% lead.

        • weka 1.5.1.1
          7 September 2023 at 8:33 pm

          based on 2020 turnout, that's 43,417 votes.

          Also, I noted below that if NZF dropped to 4.5%, and that 1% went to Lab, it's a hung parliament.

          It's very close.

        • Belladonna 1.5.1.2
          7 September 2023 at 8:59 pm

          And that differs in what way from virtually every other political poll for the last 6 months?

          This has been a very tight polling race for virtually the whole of 2023.

          Whether NZF is in or out of parliament, doesn't materially change the situation (given that both Peters and Hipkins have ruled each other out of coalition).

          The breathless excitement of the left is only 1.6% behind ignores the reality that every poll in August has a right (or right plus NZF) government.

          And, I think, every poll in the last month, compared to the previous one by the same polling company (the only really valid comparison), has Labour trending downwards.

          • weka 1.5.1.2.1
            7 September 2023 at 10:33 pm

            NZF being out of parliament is because people don't vote for them. That's either a non-vote (no help the left), or swing voters choosing Labour (helps the left).

            • Belladonna 1.5.1.2.1.1
              7 September 2023 at 10:53 pm

              I'd say that NZF being out of parliament is also of benefit to the right. I'm sure National/ACT would much prefer not to have to negotiate with Peters.

              Indeed, from a left perspective – if there is going to be a right government, it would be better that it was 'weakened' by having to incorporate NZF/Peters.

              • weka …
                8 September 2023 at 9:41 am

                I'd say that NZF being out of parliament is also of benefit to the right. I'm sure National/ACT would much prefer not to have to negotiate with Peters.

                Sure, but prefer is quite different from Peters blocking the left from winning.

                Indeed, from a left perspective – if there is going to be a right government, it would be better that it was 'weakened' by having to incorporate NZF/Peters

                Completely disagree. Peters is running a Trumpian, no-policy, reactionary populist campaign that harms NZ democracy (he is literally stirring up reactionary politics in ways we haven't seen before). If he gets in, that will continue because he will want to win in 2026 too.

                Peters might slow down some of the worst of NACT policies, but he will do a whole bunch of damage of his own. I'm not a fan of NZF generally, but it's MMP, so hey. But Peters is a different matter altogether.

      • weka 1.5.2
        7 September 2023 at 8:26 pm
        1. Peters out of parliament is a win for the left.

        2. if NZF got 4.9%, the Greens would get another MP (according to my rough use of the seat calculator). Again, a win for the left

        3. the L/R split would be 59/61. That's close, and winnable for the left.

        It's very close, lefties need to stop talking about failure.

        Let's see if the link is permanent,

        https://elections.nz/stats-and-research/mmp-seat-allocation-calculator/#!|percentage|ACT%20New%20Zealand,10,1|Animal%20Justice%20Party%20Aotearoa%20New%20Zealand,,|Aotearoa%20Legalise%20Cannabis%20Party,,|DemocracyNZ,,|Democratic%20Alliance,,|Freedoms%20New%20Zealand,,|Leighton%20Baker%20Party,,|New%20Conservatives,,|New%20Nation%20Party,,|New%20Zealand%20First%20Party,4.90,|New%20Zealand%20Labour%20Party,30,|New%20Zealand%20Loyal,,|NewZeal,,|NZ%20Outdoors%20&%20Freedom%20Party,,|Te%20P%C4%81ti%20M%C4%81ori,2.4,2|The%20Greens%60%20The%20Green%20Party%20of%20Aotearoa/New%20Zealand,12,|The%20New%20Zealand%20National%20Party,36,|The%20Opportunities%20Party%20(TOP),,|Vision%20New%20Zealand,,|Women's%20Rights%20Party,,|Other%20party%201,4.2,|Other%20party%202,,

    • Bearded Git 1.6
      7 September 2023 at 8:25 pm

      May be an image of text

  2. Ed1 2
    7 September 2023 at 8:02 pm

    Not really a review of today, but I may not be able to post to TS for a few days. There has been a lot of talk about excess profits in recent times, with a good item on RNZ this morning pointing out that the Aussie Banks have just increased their margin at a time when mortgage borrowers are struggling. From a shareholders perspective that is "productivity", from the point of view of New Zealand most of that "productivity" goes off-shore. With the penchant of National to sell off businesses to overseas investors, I suspect all they are really doing is giving short term profit to a few and long term profits and most real productivity gains to overseas owners – no wonder we don't seem to have the "productivity" of some countries. Think of our Banks (except the smaller NZ owned ones), our electricity companies, then many of our private companies which are encouraged by overseas owners to borrow for expansion rather than seeking more shareholder capital – leading to NZ having very high overseas borrowing when private plus government is considered. National – in it for the short term, not the long term . . .

    Are those points valid? Do they explain negative balance on current account over many years?

    • Incognito 2.1
      7 September 2023 at 8:33 pm

      […] with a good item on RNZ this morning pointing out […]

      If you like to discuss things here with others it helps if you’re all on the same page, e.g., by providing a link to what you’re referring to.

    • SPC 2.2
      7 September 2023 at 8:34 pm

      The banks share of the economy grows with property values (and this does not require a growth in staff – tech alternatives). Thus growing productivity as per labour and more profit from each property mortgage on a house.

      On top of that migrant labour and demand for homes (tenant or owner) also adds new business.

      (However migrant labour placing downward pressure on wage levels – thus more as tenants and not owners. The wider impact of low wage levels (exacerbated by NACT removal of FPA) encourages business to continue to avoid investment in greater productivity – such as NZPosts past investment in mail sorting tech – or mechanical harvesting or automated milking).

      Luxon said wealthy people overseas who wanted to invest in New Zealand should be able to buy a house.

      and vowing to boost immigration to get New Zealand out of recession. Migration does have huge tax benefits for us. It does have economic multiplier effects," Luxon said.

      https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2023/09/election-2023-national-vows-to-boost-immigration-to-help-new-zealand-economy.html

    • Ad 2.3
      7 September 2023 at 8:35 pm

      New Zealand's big four electricity gentailers are earning more than $7 million every day while some households are struggling to eat let alone heat their homes.

      Meridian, Contact, Genesis and Mercury had combined earnings of $2.7 billion over the last financial year. The state still owns 51% of Meridian, Genesis, and Mercury.

      The current government has had to find $4 billion in savings in the previous budget, and now going for another $4 billion again. They are just going to strip out a whole lot of programmes and fudge the rest.

      Just imagine if National hadn't sold Contact Energy just before the 1999 election and hadn't sold 49% of Meridian, Genesis, and Mercury.

      Basically the government would have had the income to get through much of COVID, and wouldn't be stripping out savings now. Neither a Labour nor a National government will have much to spend in the 2023-26 term, and it is because National has left the state weaker for over two decades.

  3. bwaghorn 3
    7 September 2023 at 8:25 pm

    Uninspired, watched te news , labour more cops, national more tourist and cheap labour to support said tourists,

    Is this really fucking it???

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