National 49% (up from 46)
Labour 30% (no change)
Greens 9% (down from 11)
NZ First 9% (up from 8)
Maori Party 1% (down from 4)
ACT 1% (no change)
TOP 1% (up from 0)
Undecided 12%
Refused to answer 4%
Field work conducted 27-31 May.
Preferred Prime Minister:
Bill English 29% (up from 26)
Andrew Little 8% (up from 7)
Winston Peters 7% (down from 9)
Jacinda Ardern 6%
About this time (about 3 months out) in the last election and the election before I seem to remember that CM was bouncing up in the mid-50s. Someone who keeps track of the polls might provide a comparison.
I wonder if :-
1. They have changed their methodology.
or
2. The public demand for this arrogant pack of the self-entitled is a lot lower this election around.
After all National and their coalition dummies regularly got more than 60% in the last couple of elections from CM polls at 3 months out. Then slid down to just getting a couple of MPs above the majority.
BTW: I consider that the only time that CM are remotely accurate is in the week before the election when they curiously move National down to something close to the end result.
22–26 March 2014 – 47%
17–21 May 2014 – 51%
21–25 June 2014 – 50%
19–23 July 2014 – 52%
9–13 August 2014 – 50%
23–27 August 2014 – 48%
30 August – 3 September 2014 – 50%
13–17 September 2014 – 45%
Election result: 47.04%
Labour:
22–26 March 2014 – 31%
17–21 May 2014 – 30%
21–25 June 2014 – 29%
19–23 July 2014 – 28%
9–13 August 2014 – 26%
23–27 August 2014 – 28%
30 August – 3 September 2014 – 25%
13–17 September 2014 – 25%
Maybe. I am getting tired of the she’ll be right attitude that many seem to be infected with which can be seen with those who dismiss the polls and assume we will just win.
The July one is probably about the closest for the relative time of the election. This coming election is about 60 days earlier.
19–23 July 2014 – 52% cf 49% National
19–23 July 2014 – 28% cf 30% Labour
Roughly a 5% swing. Plus of course you have to consider the other parties. Because there hasn’t been a non-coalition government possible in NZ since 1993.
The coalition situation is quite different to 2014.
National doesn’t appear to have gained anything from the demise of the Conservative vote. That means that they are still significantly diminished compared to last election because they are the natural home for that vote.
Act and UF are essentially still defunct unless National want to waste votes on them again. The MP is probably going to drop down below 1 MP vote in the part stakes and even with the inherent sitting MP conservatism of the Maori electorates, Flavell may have reelection issues. Hard to see how National would get to a majority with their usual gaggle of desiccated past parties.
Meanwhile the Greens and NZ First are still polling well.
TOP? Unlikely to make a good run and their policies are even worse for National than NZF’s are. I rather suspect that National would have problems with either party, and the MPs from those parties would face a revolt of their parties if they go into coalition with National.
And above all it is unlikely to have anything like a Internet-Mana or Dotcom to distract, divert and disgust this time.
What we are in now is a 4 horse race – not a 2 horse….. And incidentally, why do so many conservatives STILL keep thinking that it is a goddamn two headed race. Nostalgic wishful longing for the 197s and 1980s still?
I agree the coalition situation is very different, the whole situation is quite different. No Conservatives (of any significance) or Dotcom, and TOP is quite different. No Key, No Cunliffe, no Norman.
I post results here if no one has already done it – significant bounces to the left tend to be fairly quickly posted here so less need for me to do it.
I simply posted the Colmar results here without comment because I knew it would be of some interest. You have diverted from the actual topic a tad.
I rarely post anything at Kiwiblog these days. If I posted poll results there it would be more likely to be a swing against National to ‘encourage discussion’.
That is a whooping 16% of the vote. This must be concerning to 3rd term regime seeking a 4th term.
Maori party down to a one trick pony on this slump if they get back at all? Peter Dunne he is toast, a gone burger.
The little twerp from Epsom has no pulling power and would do better by replacing him with Jordan Williams as leader.
NZ First will rise when Jones comes out of the closet.
Cat killer needs to be neutered 1% at this point in time signals 2.5 % so by not liking his posts and ripping TOP to bits when the puss puts his boot in his mouth is advisable.
I wouldn’t get to excited about these folks as if they can’t be bothered to answer a question on the phone I’d be surprised if they have the energy to toddle off to the voting booth on election day.
so? Does it matter what they get if they can form govt? I’m sure you can understand the difference between setting a goal and still having a good outcome even if one doesn’t reach it.
Dude getting mocked on twitter for claiming that NZ is ungrateful given that the US has been protecting us and given us our freedom (reference throwing water-filled condoms at an effigy of Tillerson),
New Zealand? And who provides its freedom and defense, I wonder. Odd way of saying Thank You.
The USA came into World War 2 only on the end of a well-placed Japanese boot.
Don’t give us that old simplistic drivel about how the Americans selflessly saved us: they were fighting for themselves, and we were damned lucky that our interests co-incided.
The Russians had a lot of help from the USA in terms of equipment…sure the Russians spilled the blood, but with out aid from the USA it may have been different.
You last paragraph is nonsense…without the USA, NZ and Australia would have been in a tonne of trouble.
Bollocks – in the well-schooled Western propaganda-influenced, you think that the minimal stuff the West shipped through to Murmansk made a difference? Rubbish. The tanks we sent were feeble, little competition for the superior German Panzer 4s, let alone the Tigers.
Russia had moved all of its important military production industry East of the Urals. The war-winning tank (the T-34) was produced there, in huge numbers. Along with good aircraft that defeated the Luftwaffe. We don’t hear about this.
80% of Hitler’s war effort went into the East, the Russians took the major impact, and did the major work. All our heroic efforts were against only 20% of Germany’s war effort.
NZ and Australia were defended by the USA because it was in the USA’s interest not to lose those areas to the Japanese. Sorry – that makes perfect sense. Had the USA not needed our countries unoccupied by the Japanese, things could well have been much different.
Have a wee look at the southern eastern front, and one battle – the Crimean Offensive – David C. Look at the cost of that one battle on the Russians and the Germans. It’s bloody terrifying the loss of human life on both sides. When you consider it’s faught in a area smaller than Otago, and the battle lasted less than a month.
I’d recommend this book as well.”Lost Victories: The War Memoirs of Hitler’s Most Brilliant General”
by Erich von Manstein
Brutally honest about the Soviet war machine, and how it wrecked the German Army. Plus, he was one of the best Generals in WW2 who we never hear about, I’m glad he got shafted by Hitler, we all should be.
Very true on equipment the Churchil III was a waste of space, nice armor but a useless gun. The Valentine (2 From memory) was a good tank, but very few made it into Russia in working order. The Matilda (sorry canny remember the make off the top of my head) was another OK tank, but again lacked a decent gun so the Russians used it in a support role. Most of the USA tanks could not handle the cold. M4 was a great tank, but would seize up in freezing temps – which was good for the USA to learn come the invasion of Europe post D-Day planing.
As for aircraft, all of the British aircraft suffered in the cold and we under powered. As for Artillary, this was welcomed by the Russians, as it was solid, but they did not get much. The best thing about the aid to Russia was the psychological effect. The feeling for the Russia’s that they were not alone.
As for us and the Aussies being stuffed without the yanks. Silly question Chucky do you know who was the first army to beat, and turn back a major Japaneses invasion force? I’ll give you a hint, it happened in Papua New Guinea. It opened up the door for a couple of major naval victories, and meant that the marines didn’t get wasted at Guadalcanal.
I’m not denying the Yanks did a good job, they did. I think you under estimate what us and the Aussies did.
The Russians had a lot of help from the USA in terms of equipment…sure the Russians spilled the blood, but with out aid from the USA it may have been different.
Did you know that some of the best fighter planes in WWII were Russian?
The final “best” air superiority fighter of the later period of the war in Europe was the Yakovlev Yak-3. Many top Soviet aces flew the Yak series of fighters, which started with the rather primitive Yak-1 and evolved into the Yak-3 air superiority and Yak-9 general purpose fighters. (See the article “The Yakovlev Yak-9” for more details about the latter model.) The Yak-9 was produced in greater numbers than any other Allied fighter of WW II, but it is the contemporary Yak-3 that was regarded as the best dogfighter on the ETO Eastern Front.
Some of Zaloga’s choices are less surprising. The only tank in “Armored Champions” to receive both the Tanker’s and Commander’s prize is the T-34 in 1941. Despite a two-man turret, its superior firepower, armor and mobility shocked the hitherto-invincible German panzers, as well as German infantry terrified to see their anti-tank guns bounce off the T-34’s thick skin.
From the same article comes the vital point though:
It is in 1943 that the contrast between technical capability and battlefield utility becomes most striking. Not surprisingly, the Tiger I is Tanker’s Choice because of its thick armor and powerful gun, which created “Tiger fright” among Allied troops. But Tigers were expensive, few in number (only 1,347 were built, compared to 84,000 T-34s) and hard to maintain. The depleted and desperate German infantry divisions on the Eastern Front needed armor support to stave off massed waves of T-34s, and a few battalions of overworked Tigers were not going to save them.
The US could have kept out of the European front and the Germans would have been crushed by the Russians.
You last paragraph is nonsense…without the USA, NZ and Australia would have been in a tonne of trouble.
His last paragraph makes perfect sense. You attacking him by restating his position doesn’t.
The United Nations defeated the Axis, actually. So the UN (the “Allies”) fought together against Germany – the USSR couldn’t have destroyed Army Group Centre without US rations, avgas, trucks, jeeps and radios for example. And the Germans would have had a lot stronger defenses in the East if the 22,000 heavy anti-aircraft guns they had defending the Reich could have been used there.
The Americans were literally shooting down the entire Luftwaffe fighter strength every 3 months at one stage in early 1944 as the German fighters desperately tried to stop the bombers flattening their cities. Basically the Red Air Force had no opposition because the Anglo-Americans shot them all down.
There was a “second front” against Germany – in the air – long before D-Day.
However, it was the Americans alone who beat the Japanese.
Much of what you say is true, but I think I remember reading that the Luftwaffe lost just as heavily in the East before the Mustang fighter arrived to do the coup de grace in the West. 1944 is very late in the war, and the Russians were well in control by then
The fact remains that 80% of Germany’s war effort went into the East. Saying that we rescued Russia (as you imply) by forcing the Germans to keep a few resources in the west hardly convinces.
Off topic, but this “effort” thing is a really, really interesting subject to a history fan like me. By 1943, the war in the East had largely degenerated into a WW1 style slogging match between two huge armies of militia with motorised formations only common in decisive zones. The Germans looked good only because often the Soviets were worse (at Anzio the Allies were astonished at the inflexible infantry tactics and poor artillery co-ordination of the “good” German divisions transferred from the East).
Now, if you measure effort as a simple mathematical equation – 200 divisions in the east, 40 in the West, therefore 80% of the effort was in the east – then you are right. But since 1914 numbers have only told (an increasingly less important) part of the story. Modern weapons means concentrating more men at the point of attack simply increases losses.
The Germans themselves were aware of the technology and tactical flexibility gap between their average units and the western allies, whose entire armies were motorised and lavishly supplied with radios and support weapons. The German army in Normandy featured the cream of their armoured forces – ten full strength divisions including no less than five of the seven Waffen SS armoured divisions.
In a similar vein, although the Allied bomber offensive required relatively little manpower to defend against it consumed an outsized proportion of the output of the German high technology sector in radars, fire control systems, optics, large and sophisticated night and day fighters, and the highly skilled pilots and workforce needed to support that effort.
Since the 1980s there has been a revision of the impact the western allies had on the overall war situation. Without wanting to belittle the huge sacrifices of the USSR, technology had a major impact on the way the Western allies fought the war. For example, in the entire Stalingrad campaign the Soviets lost around 1.5 million to inflict 800,000 losses on the Axis. At the same time, the Western allies decisively defeated the Axis in North Africa, losing 240,000 (since 1941) to inflict 900,000 losses on the Axis.
And the Germans would have had a lot stronger defenses in the East if the 22,000 heavy anti-aircraft guns they had defending the Reich could have been used there.
I suspect that those AA guns would have had difficulty with the 84000 T34s.
The Americans were literally shooting down the entire Luftwaffe fighter strength every 3 months at one stage in early 1944 as the German fighters desperately tried to stop the bombers flattening their cities. Basically the Red Air Force had no opposition because the Anglo-Americans shot them all down.
Well, piss all over them in Manchuria, maybe, but the Russians weren’t getting ready to invade the home islands any time soon.
The best explanation I heard for the yanks nuking cities was that it never occurred to anyone to not drop the bomb: the army didn’t want to invade the home islands, the air force wanted to use it as the fulfillment of strategic bombing, the manhatten and b29 projects needed to be justified, and yes the diplomats had their eye on post-war negotiations.
The only ones who didn’t see a need for it were the submariners, who’d basically done Japan into the ground already.
Lots of self-centered reasons for individual groups supporting it, nobody really opposing it.
A long time ago for me to now quote a source, but I seem to remember an argument that once the Russians had invaded shoreline near Japan, they would be able to mount an invasion before the Americans could ever assemble the distant naval build-up they would need. What they took to Iwo Jima would not suffice…
So maybe there was a thought of warning off the Russians?
yeah I knew they were transferring land forces and tooling through China and some of the smaller island groups, I just wasn’t aware they had the capacity to land (and protect the landing forces) thirty-odd divisions in the Pacific anywhere close to that time.
Bearing in mind that most of the US island-hopping was bad enough going when they routinely provided numerous destroyers, battleships and even aircraft carriers of different sizes to cover the landing ships, I hadn’t really picked that a large-scale soviet naval landing was even on the horizon.
In his exhortation to his troops on the eve of D-Day, Eisenhower referred to the ‘united nations’.
“But this is the year 1944. Much has happened since the Nazi triumphs of 1940-41. The United Nations have inflicted upon the Germans great defeats, in open battle, man-to-man.”
Eisenhower had a wider view of who defeated the Nazis than ‘America First’.
To Mac1
Eisenhower, like Churchill, had preferred to fight around peripheral areas, while their two biggest enemies (Nazi Germany and Communist Russia) slogged it out against each other. But then, the Russians started to be obvious winners. So Eisenhower and Churchill had to rush to invade Europe from the west, lest the Russians take over the whole lot.
Eisenhower knew bloody well who was defeating the Germans – the Russians. Why else did D-day come about?
Umm, language?
“The Americans were literally shooting down the entire Luftwaffe fighter strength every 3 months at one stage in early 1944 as the German fighters desperately tried to stop the bombers flattening their cities.” Literally??
If they shot down the entire Luftwaffe fighter strength every 3 months, the German production rate must have been phenomenal.
Sounds bloody fishy to me. And maybe a little metaphorical rather than literal.
And how can ‘every 3 months’ be at only one stage in early 1944 – a period of 3 months at the most? For just how long did this ‘every 3 months’ period last?
Care to rephrase most of what you wrote?
Underneath the stupid is a serious issue: how valuable is the five eyes relationship, and given Trump’s treachery, is a “four eyes” relationship worth pursuing?
Posted this earlier on Daily Review. But being a long Weekend got my dates wrong! ….Doesn’t do much for my credibility I know!, i.e., (Doesn’t know what day of the week it is…)
If appropriate thought it important enough to resubmit in today’s Review, given posts, and threads of late… And inspiration that Sarah gives!
And yesterdays threads/Posts can sometimes be Old News… sadly!
Anyhow… Now for someone with Guts…
“Law student Sarah Thomson has launched a judicial review of the New Zealand Government’s completely inadequate greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets.
Sarah Thomson and her lawyers now have a firm date for the hearing of her judicial review: It will be at the High Court, 2 Molesworth Street, Wellington, from 26-28 June, start time 10am.
Sarah is encouraging people to attend the hearing to show their support for the need for action on climate change. Do contribute to the important national conversation on climate change in any ways that you can.
Sarah explains her case and why she’s taking it: “….
Poll was done straight after the Budget with all the Government spin and before the gaping holes were exposed. Commentators all expected a post cabinet bounce. Once there is a full manifesto released by Labour and nothing new from National the polls will inevitably close.
Hey mighty mod. The Daily Review date should be 7/6/17. You can’t get away with foisting July on us before we have had June. And I don’t want to miss out on the Brit election excitement in the moss pit.
Yes. But I have also been known to get up when I can’t sleep and do some reading until I sleep.
I need to find another really interesting but boring book. I used to have one that was about the trading voyages to the ‘Dutch East Indies’ from the 16th century to the 19th. Usually I could manage about 10 pages before I dozed off.
The Radicalism of the American Revolution. Quite an interesting book that argues the US revolutionary war was the product of a hundred years of demographic change that fractured local hereditary power structures (e.g. looking at the changing percentage of settlements where the local mayor or magistrate was son or grandson of the previous mayor or magistrate). Much deeper than the usual myth that a bunch of folks suddenly decided to dump tea in a harbour because enlughtenment.
States a good case and really describes a fundamental demographic schism, but drier than a scorpion’s toilet paper. Unless you like tables of import/export duties.
I love them. They will be like the lists of inventory and auction prices of goods shipped around the world when sail was the fastest method of travel. Incredibly interesting, boring as shit, slower than a snail sprinting, and an instant cure for sleeplessness.
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The Justice Committee has called for submissions on the Referendums Framework Bill. The Bill does what it says on the label - establishes a framework for referenda. Things you may want to address in your submission: Whether the bill should apply only at the 2020 election, or whether it should ...
The Thompson and Clark / MBIE spying scandal continues to result in fallout, this time in the form of a report on the implementation of MBIE's "Operation Exploration", its internal operation to enforce the infamous Anadarko Amendment which criminalised protests against the oil industry. MBIE's enforcement operation was tainted by ...
So, Winston Peters is defending his last-minute demand for a referendum on abortion by claiming he was "blindsided" by the bill. Really? The bill is a government bill. It has been working through the cabinet approval process since December last year. As part of that process, NZ First was consulted, ...
The Green Part has been accused of lack of transparency in two recent situations. The first was the claimed media lockdown during Green's annual conference and the second was Julie Ann Genter's refusal to release a letter she had sent to Phil Twyford.I do get frustrated when journalist's succumb to ...
The Green Part has been accused of lack of transparency in two recent situations. The first was the claimed media lockdown during Green's annual conference and the second was Julie Ann Genter's refusal to release a letter she had sent to Phil Twyford.I do get frustrated when journalist's succumb to ...
Last week, the ongoing democracy protests in Hong Kong saw a pro-Hong Kong student assaulted at the University of Auckland. The Chinese consulate in Auckland followed this up with a press release "express[ing] its appreciation to the students for their spontaneous patriotism" - effectively condoning the assault and inciting further ...
Only those who close their eyes and minds to the evidence can still be in any doubt that we are facing a climate change crisis. The evidence is conclusive that the world is not only getting inexorably hotter, but also that the rising temperatures are creating a number of other ...
Rural communities are wailing about forestry conversions "taking land out of production" and putting it into locking up carbon. Its driven purely by economics: there's more money and lower costs in carbon than in sheep or beef, and if carbon prices rise, there'll be more net money than dairy even. ...
This week, the government introduced its (underwhelming) Abortion Legislation Bill. And despite having negotiated the text of the bill through the coalition process, Winston Peters is now suggesting that he will demand a referendum on it:NZ First leader Winston Peters has hinted that his party may only support the Government's ...
Blowing-Up The House: Is Winston Peters planning to put himself at the head of all those New Zealanders who refuse to countenance the Coalition Government caving-in to the Ihumatao protesters? The most effective way of doing this would be to issue Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern with an ultimatum. If she ...
Last night the police dramatically incresed their numbers at Ihumātao, shoving over protestors and threatening them with arrest. Despite police talk about the need to maintain "public order" and prevent a "breach of the peace", there appeared to be absolutely no justification for this: the protest camp is, was, and ...
A Cult, that many actors, politicians, and those with a low IQ are joining is sweeping across civilisation, with one main intention – ending humans reign on Earth. Starting as a well meaning though deeply flawed theory, that the Earth was warming due to mankind emitting greenhouse gasses, it was ...
Today's abortion reform announcement is just the latest in a long line of disappointing decisions or outright failures from the Labour government. The 90-day law. KiwiBuild. A capital gains tax. Climate change. Every time they make one of those decisions, we hope for better next time. No repeal of the ...
The Greens used their party conference over the weekend to push for a rent-to-own scheme, where people would be able to work towards home ownership by renting from the government. Its a sensible policy, and one which could make a real difference to home ownership rates. But its also basicly ...
by Daphna Whitmore Over the past fortnight, thousands of people have come to the Ihumātao land protest in South Auckland. On 23 July police prepared to evict a few dozen people who had maintained the encampment at Ihumātao for the past three years. As hundreds of supporters arrived the ...
The following article is translated from an article in Lutte de Classe (Class Struggle), the magazine of the French revolutionary workers’ organisation Lutte Ouvrière (Workers Struggle). The United States’ blacklisting of the Chinese telecommunications company Huawei, which took shape in Google’s ban on Huawei using its systems on its phones, marks a ...
There is a military phrase: “Full spectrum dominance”. It refers to the all-encompassing policy to dominate across all spheres of war. Lately, that has come to include the internet – in other words, cyberwarfare initiatives. That is in addition to land, sea, air and the like. Now, if ...
Opportunities to dodge tax are shrinking with the completion of a new tax agreement with Switzerland, Revenue Minister Stuart Nash announced today. Mr Nash and the Swiss Ambassador David Vogelsanger have today signed documents to update the double tax agreement (DTA). The previous DTA was signed in 1980. “Double tax ...
Small Business Minister Stuart Nash says the report of the Small Business Council will help maintain the momentum for innovation and improvements in the sector. Mr Nash has thanked the members of the Small Business Council (SBC) who this week handed over their report, Empowering small businesses to aspire, succeed ...
Extra Police officers are being deployed from Northland to Southland with the graduation of a new wing of recruits from the Royal New Zealand Police College. “The graduation of 78 constables today means that 1524 new constables have been deployed since the government took office,” says Police Minister Stuart Nash. ...
Wellington, 20 August 2019 — Lawyers for Vulnerable New Zealanders (LVNZ) has lent its support to the amendments proposed by MP Chris Penk to better protect vulnerable people from being coerced to end their lives under the End of Life Choice Bill, currently ...
The Government’s decision to establish and independent Parliamentary Budget Office, outside of Treasury, is a taxpayer victory and will improve democracy, says the New Zealand Taxpayers' Union . Taxpayers' Union spokesman Louis Houlbrooke says, “It's ...
The Taxpayers’ Union can reveal that the cost-benefit analysis prepared by Ministry of Transport and used to advise Ministers on the Government’s Clean Car Standard and ‘Feebate’ policies has serious flaws which undermine justifications for the ...
The Aotearoa New Zealand Association of Social Workers (ANZASW) welcomes new proposals for prison reform put forward by the Minister of Corrections and non-government organisations recently. ...
The New Zealand Maori Council has called on the nation to address all forms of racism and not to shy away from an honest conversation about where it’s taking hold. The call comes after the Nelson Club decided to keep a member after his comments became ...
Wellington (20 August 2019): The New Zealand Initiative enthusiastically welcomes the Coalition Government’s announcement of an Independent Parliamentary Budget Office. Finance Minister Grant Robertson and Associate Finance Minister James Shaw ...
Drs Say No agree with Chris Penk’s amendment to protect vulnerable patients from coercion, although the organisation still maintains that no safe euthanasia legislation can ever be drafted and continues to urge MPs to defeat the End of Life Choice Bill. ...
The Chief Ombudsman Peter Boshier says the Northland Regional Corrections Facility is persisting with policies that are preventing it from achieving its full potential. ...
The second national hui in the Māori-led Inquiry into Oranga Tamariki concluded yesterday ahead of schedule after a capacity audience formally ratified the terms of reference that determines the scope and purpose of the independent investigation ...
Forest & Bird says WWF-NZ's plan for protecting Māui dolphins is based on testing unproven methods on a species that is almost extinct, and is urging the Government to reject the proposal. ...
Primary and intermediate school principals have voted to accept a new settlement from the Ministry of Education, which includes entrenched pay parity with secondary principals. ...
Police acknowledge the findings of the Independent Police Conduct Authority (IPCA) report into the 2014 search of a property belonging to Nicky Hager. ...
The Independent Police Conduct Authority has found that the Police's unlawful search of Nicky Hager's property in October 2014 resulted from an unwitting neglect of duty and did not amount to misconduct by any individual officer. Police policy at the ...
Tuesday, August 20: Greenpeace has labeled an overnight announcement by fishing company Sanford as a danger to Māui and Hector’s dolphins, and is calling on the Government to reject the ‘Sanford Plan’ immediately. ...
World Animal Protection describes an overnight announcement (19 August, embargoed until 6am 20 August), by fishing company Sanford as a cynical move to undermine growing support for full habitat protection for Māui and Hector’s dolphins. They called ...
When the combined tax on fuel hits over 50 percent in some parts of the country, it is hypocritical for the Government to blame corporates, says the New Zealand Taxpayers' Union . ...
A leading expert in suicide prevention has urged MPs not to confuse suicide with assisted dying as they consider the second reading of the End of Life Choice Bill. ...
Over the weekend Māoridom arrived in the Waikato for the annual Koroneihana Celebrations. Yesterday almost 300 attended a Hui in Hamilton to continue the Oranga Tamariki Review led by an independent Māori panel to coincide with the Koroneihana. The Hui confirmed ...
The Council of Licenced Firearm Owners (COLFO) says the newly issued ‘price list’ for compensation of banned firearms reveals that haste in preparing the ban has led to an underestimation of the number of affected firearms and their value. ...
Corrections Minister Kelvin Davis has admitted parts of the prison system are “extremely racist” and says that’s why the Government is asking Māori to work with it to make changes. ...
Ongoing drug-test sanctions contradicts Government’s rhetoric on drugs Reports that two-thirds of beneficiaries who fail drug tests are still having their benefit sanctioned contradicts the Government’s so-called health approach to drugs. Auckland ...
An Auckland Homelessness Collective is optimistic extra government support for sustaining tenancies signals a commitment to a multi-pronged approach to tackling homelessness. ...
Wanaka-based trust ONE New Zealand will be hosting six days of talks, workshops and hands-on activities with local and national experts to educate, inspire and enable grassroots action towards a sustainable future. ...
In last week’s episode of Politics in Full Sentences, David, Brooke and Ruwan discussed why Jacinda Ardern has been lecturing our friends overseas, why Andrew Little called ACT's three strikes law “fascism”, whether he will give prisoners the right to ...
“Community safety must be the paramount consideration when releasing an offender, and the only way for that to be achieved is for the offender to acknowledge their crimes.” ...
“District Health Boards are failing to foster a culture of distributed clinical leadership, despite its demonstrated benefits to the sector,” says Ian Powell, Executive Director of the Association of Salaried Medical Specialists (ASMS). ...
Ratepayers around Auckland were spitting out their morning coffees listening to Phil Goff’s incredible claims on breakfast radio today that this election is about ‘honesty’ and that Aucklanders can trust him on his promises. Auckland Ratepayers’ ...
The Hōkai Rangi plan for reducing Māori reoffending announced today fails to fulfil the Waitangi Tribunal’s recommendations, says justice organisation People Against Prisons Aotearoa. Minister Kelvin Davis announced the plan this morning, which aims ...
Waatea News at the invitation of the North Island Whānau Ora Commissioning Agency will exclusively broadcast the next Māori-led Inquiry into Oranga Tamariki starting today at 1pm. ...
Staff at the Ministry of Social Development say they are enthusiastic about the government’s $54 million investment in housing the homeless, with many describing it as a welcome change. ...
Today posters have gone up outside ANZ branches across New Zealand to expose ANZ’s sponsorship of an exclusive oil industry group, ‘The Petroleum Club’. The satirical posters play on ANZ’s recent ad campaigns, replacing the banks’ tagline ‘healthy ...
Imagine a country where children look forward to walking or cycling to school, parents arrive home safely, and the journeys we take for work or pleasure do more than leave us alive or uninjured, they also improve our lives. This is happening now in countries ...
Sunday, 18 August, 2019 - Environmental groups and well known New Zealanders are preparing to deliver a 55,000 strong petition to the steps of Parliament tomorrow, calling on the Government to protect the world’s smallest dolphin. ...
The Government’s proposed rescue plan must be strengthened because it is the last chance to save Māui dolphins from extinction and secure the future for Hector’s dolphins, Forest & Bird says. ...
Simon Shepherd: Roads, schools, hospitals, prisons, the building blocks that keep society functioning. And we don't have enough. It's called the infrastructure deficit and will be the focus of a major conference this coming week. The man charged with ...
New Zealand has been issued a stark challenge from Pacific leaders to dramatically upscale its action to address climate breakdown, Oxfam says, after a clear rallying cry from nations at this week’s Pacific Islands Forum. ...
Support for Recreational Dope Going ‘Up in Smoke’ Family First NZ is welcoming yet another poll showing plummeting support for legalising cannabis in New Zealand. The Horizon Research poll shows support for legalising has plummeted from 60% last ...
The prospect of ending wider cannabis prohibition looks increasingly unlikely. Over the last nine months, the percentage of New Zealanders who would vote for legalising the personal use of cannabis has declined at a near linear rate of around 10% per ...
“It’s disappointing that news out of the United States of hospitalisations linked to illegal street drugs is somehow seen as relevant to the New Zealand vaping scene,” says Ben Pryor, Director of Alt New Zealand – the largest Kiwi-owned vaping company. ...
The Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Psychiatrists (RANZCP) welcomes the successful passing of Misuse of Drugs Amendment Bill through parliament, by the New Zealand Government. ...
Jacinda Ardern’s election campaign was high on hope but this Government should remember that those who encourage what cannot be achieved are quickly found out. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Professor Tim Bentley, Director of Research, professor of Work and Organisation, Massey University According to the World Health Organisation (WHO), the workplace can be a positive force for improving mental health. But many workers are exposed to work environments that are damaging ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Denis Muller, Senior Research Fellow in the Centre for Advancing Journalism, University of Melbourne Alan Jones’s political power is to a large extent based on a self-fulfilling prophecy: politicians believe he can shift votes, so they pay homage to him, which adds ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rosemary Stanton, Visiting Fellow, School of Medical Sciences, UNSW Research Checks interrogate newly published studies and how they’re reported in the media. The analysis is undertaken by one or more academics not involved with the study, and reviewed by another, to make ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Associate Professor Ralph Brougham Chapman, Director, Environmental Studies, Victoria University of Wellington CC BY-NDClimate Explained is a collaboration between The Conversation, Stuff and the New Zealand Science Media Centre to answer your questions about climate change.If you have a question you’d ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Salvatore Babones, Associate Professor, University of Sydney Australia’s leading universities are now looking to India in search of new sources of international students. This comes amid worries they may have reached a “China max” – no more room for growth in Chinese ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jen Couch, Senior Lecturer – Youth Work and International Development, Australian Catholic University One of the biggest challenges young people of refugee background face in their new country is finding safe, affordable and appropriate housing. Yet this is central to social inclusion ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Christopher Sheil, Visiting Senior Fellow in History, UNSW The results of the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics biennial survey of income and wealth met have met with an uneven response, perhaps in part due to a slipshod press release. Released with the ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Christina Lee, Senior Lecturer in Literary and Cultural Studies, Curtin University This story contains spoilers for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. While promoting Once Upon a Time in Hollywood at the Cannes Film Festival, filmmaker Quentin Tarantino was asked why Margot ...
Good morning, and welcome to The Bulletin. In today’s edition: National cries foul over parliamentary costing unit idea, Ngawha Prison heavily criticised in report, and fuel market study confirms prices are high.The government have announced a recommendation to create an official, independent parliamentary costing unit, reports the NZ Herald.The aim is to ...
Phil Goff and John Tamihere are into round 10 of 23 debates planned before the mayoral election in October, and they're punching hard, not resting on the ropes or pulling eachother into dull political clinches. ...
So who is Jennie Wyllie, thrust into the spotlight in New Zealand netball’s darkest hour, and now holding the key to the cabinet storing the sport’s three greatest prizes? ...
The fundamental problem with silver bullets is they permit a ‘business as usual’ approach to farming when that is neither ecologically sustainable nor economically desirable. ...
As Auckland attempts to encourage greener alternatives to car use, a huge new car park is rising beside Les Mills’ flagship inner-city gym. Josie Adams asks Les Mills CEO Phillip Mills how it tallies with the company’s clean, green brand.Les Mills Victoria Street has 12,000 members, and up to 700 ...
Pacific Media Watch Newsdesk Papua New Guinea’s EMTV news and current affairs manager Neville Choi has been sacked after six years of service in this role, triggering strong protests from staff in the country’s main television news service. EMTV staff called for the reinstatement of Choi and for the ...
The problem of political parties disputing each others costing was highlighted in the 2017 election and now an independent entity to ensure parties aren't fudging their figures is a step closer. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Bradley L Garrett, Research Fellow, University of Sydney A small plane looped through the tranquil and cloudless Sydney sky today, spewing engine-heated liquid paraffin from its exhaust, creating puffy tracers. As people all over the city watched from rooftop bars, beach towels ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jane Howard, Deputy Section Editor: Arts + Culture You might picture a book club around your neighbour’s coffee table, or over beers at the local pub – but what if it took place in Parliament House? This is the question being asked ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Carly Osborn, Visiting Research Fellow, University of Adelaide If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, send it to curiouskids@theconversation.edu.au.What makes us cry? – Claudia, age 7.5, Victoria. Hi Claudia. Thank you for this very sensible ...
In the third episode of Actually Interesting, The Spinoff’s monthly podcast exploring the effect AI has on our lives, Te Aroha Grace talks to host Russell Brown about the Iwi Algorithm.Subscribe to Actually Interesting via iTunes or listen on the player below.To download this episode right click and save.At ...
Colson Whitehead won the 2017 Pultizer Prize for Fiction for The Underground Railroad, a depiction of slavery and resistance in 19th century Georgia. Now he’s back with a similarly grim premise, following two boys through the horrors of a real-life reform school in Florida. Our reviewer is Aaron Smale, whose ...
Two recent scientific discoveries rocked us to our fossily core, but there’s a bigger, more shocking story to be told. Who are the silhouette people? Tara Ward finds out. It’s been a big month for bones. First, New Zealand scientists uncovered evidence that a giant parrot once roamed the country around ...
From tennis champions to dance craze inventors, Scratched celebrates New Zealand sporting heroes who never got their due – but whose legacies deserve to be in lights. This month, aerobics world champion and creator of Jump Jam, Brett Fairweather. Every New Zealander under the age of 30 knows at least one ...
Life in the wee hours could be made safer and better for business if New Zealand adopted the policies of cities such as Amsterdam, writes Natanael Rother.It would be insane to do the same thing over and over again and still expect different results. It’s a lesson those embroiled in ...
Stranger Things owns all the oxygen for period-piece teen TV, but Ireland’s impossibly charming Derry Girls deserves as much acclaim, writes Duncan Greive.There’s a reason why high school is the backdrop to so much fantastic television. That cusp between childhood and the adult world is ripe with dramatic possibility. Relationships ...
The Commerce Commission has released preliminary findings from its market study into the retail fuel market, finding it not as competitive as it could be. ...
We’ve become used to Samoan characters as peripheral bad guys. But from the tatau Sāmoa on his chest to his relationships with his aiga, Hobbs & Shaw showed us someone who is us. And he kicks arse.When I was growing up, there were hardly any Sāmoan or Polynesian faces on ...
Editor’s Note: Here below is a list of the main issues currently under discussion in New Zealand and links to media coverage.New Zealand Parliament Buildings, Wellington, New Zealand.Today’s content by Dr Bryce Edwards.Māori prison strategy, prisoner voting 1News: Kelvin Davis admits parts of prison system ‘extremely racist’ ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Anna Hopkins, Lecturer in conservation biology and microbial ecology, Edith Cowan University As most of the science community knows, the climate emergency is here now. Weather extremes such as droughts and heatwaves are increasing in frequency and intensity and are measurably exacerbated ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Krystian Seibert, Industry Fellow, Centre for Social Impact, Swinburne University of Technology Over the weekend, Prime Minister Scott Morrison launched a new assault on the campaigning group GetUp. At the Liberal Party’s state conference in Adelaide, he said GetUp needed to be ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Archana Koirala, Paediatrician and Infectious Diseases Specialist, University of Sydney If you have a question you’d like an expert to answer, send it to curiouskids@theconversation.edu.au.How does our blood fight viruses like chicken pox, sickness and colds? – Teddy, 5, Oxfordshire, ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Mark Hemer, Principal Research Scientist, Oceans and Atmosphere, CSIRO The rise in sea levels is not the only way climate change will affect the coasts. Our research, published today in Nature Climate Change, found a warming planet will also alter ocean waves ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Owain Emslie, Associate, Grattan Institute Inheritances can have an enormous impact on finances and lives. Yet in Australia we know surprisingly little about who gets them and how big they are. New Grattan Institute research provides some answers. Inheritances are big and ...
Daily Review 07/06/2017 
Television advertising has a huge impact on our lives. Even if we don’t recognise that, we know it has to be true, since otherwise why would advertisers spend so much on it? Its significance, however, is greater than simply the influence it has on what we purchase and consume. It ...54 mins ago
by Jan Rivers More than 30 years ago a Commission of Inquiry was held in New Zealand to investigate, amongst other things, whether women with cervical cancer were aware that they had been part of a research project and whether they were properly informed of the treatment options ...18 hours ago
Canada is having an election in the next few months, and (perhaps because their Prime Minister is so nice and reasonable) they have a party running on a platform of Trumpism and climate change denial. But there's a twist: the latter means that it will be illegal for anyone in ...21 hours ago
Everyone Wants To Be Fuhrer: When fascist groups are discussed, the image conjured-up in the minds of most New Zealanders is one of pathetic misfits. This negative impression is reinforced by the latter’s idiotic embrace of the swastika. Even in the second decade of the twenty-first century, the baleful legacy ...23 hours ago
In the previous two posts, I laid out the context and set the theoretical framework to answer a question: whether indigenous economies should take the LEAP. This final part outlines ways to conceive of practicing mana motuhake within the existing legal system by carving out special jurisdictions that enable Indigenous ...3 days ago
Fully Informed? Labour’s 2017 promises raised expectations that were little short of revolutionary. Unfortunately, they were never adequately shaken through the fiscal sieve. The hard economic work was not done – and it shows. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s critics have long complained that her grasp of the way the New ...3 days ago
You cannot expect to pound communities into the ground day after day, year after year, decade after decade and just expect them to take it lying down. There’s a point at which the place will explode. And we’re faced with some very big ructions on both sides of the Atlantic ...5 days ago
5 days ago
Going Down? Once truth and propaganda become fused in the minds of one’s followers, debate and discussion become redundant. If one’s opponents are all outrageous liars, then engaging with them in any way is pointless. Rather than waste its time, a political party should, instead, target all its messages at ...5 days ago
We need to fundamentally reframe our systems settings to address the drivers causing and underpinning inequality; structural change in systems especially financial. The Equality Network Hui was held in Wellington on 27 June 2019. The hui covered important topics such as child poverty; a living wage; taxation; public health; mental ...7 days ago
The views-per-page for some of my recent postings:Depressing, isn't it? Provide thoughtful and wise commentary on the mainstream of British politics and no-one notices. Make a passing reference to Tommy DICKHEAD Robinson in a thread title and you get hundreds of views. Write something about anti-Semitism and you get another ...7 days ago
The government has announced plans to move the Treaty of Waitangi and other taonga to a new site. Great news! So where are they going? Right next to the old one:The new plan will see a new 22,000-square-metre archive built on the former site of Defence House - the former ...7 days ago
Back in June, StatsNZ went public about a project to track population data on an hourly level by using people's cellphones. It wasn't as bad as it initially looked - they were receiving no individual data, only counts by suburb - but there was still a huge consent problem, so ...7 days ago
I did an interview on the TVNZ Breakfast Show about the situation in Hong Kong. I tried to frame the issue as a collective action problem between two sides with very different end games. The video is here. Because of time constraints we could not discuss the fact that the ...7 days ago
Image Credit: Wild Rose College A new study reporting the ranges of values for kidney and liver parameters in a healthy population is being actively misrepresented by anti-fluoride campaigners. The Fluoride Action Network’s (FAN) latest ... 7 days ago
Alone, Alone. All, All Alone: Will it be a good or a bad thing, when humanity’s bright blue spacecraft is stricken by the civilisation-destroying problem of Climate Change, that no Huston Control will be standing-by to rescue the crew?“WE HAVE A PROBLEM, HUSTON.” These were the words used by the ...1 week ago
Divided Loyalties: Can the Prime Minister, Jacinda Ardern, be relied upon? That’s what the boys and girls at Foggy Bottom and the Pentagon needed to be reassured about. Because, from the perspective of Washington, it’s looking more and more like Jacinda Ardern and her Labour Party comrades are getting ready ...1 week ago
This handy Queer Theory Glossary is from thetranswidow.com In case you’ve had trouble keeping up with the spate of new queer theory terms, here’s a handy glossary for your reference. Queer – A straight person with an interesting haircut. Non-binary/genderqueer – A chubby young female, typically 16-28, who has ...1 week ago
The winter grazing issue is becoming a highly sensitised one that I hope will not become so politicised that it delays solutions and results in the suicides of some very stressed farmers.Winter grazing has hit the headlines after a determined campaign, including the release of a video of some very ...2 weeks ago
The Green Part has been accused of lack of transparency in two recent situations. The first was the claimed media lockdown during Green's annual conference and the second was Julie Ann Genter's refusal to release a letter she had sent to Phil Twyford.I do get frustrated when journalist's succumb to ...2 weeks ago
Blowing-Up The House: Is Winston Peters planning to put himself at the head of all those New Zealanders who refuse to countenance the Coalition Government caving-in to the Ihumatao protesters? The most effective way of doing this would be to issue Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern with an ultimatum. If she ...2 weeks ago
A Cult, that many actors, politicians, and those with a low IQ are joining is sweeping across civilisation, with one main intention – ending humans reign on Earth. Starting as a well meaning though deeply flawed theory, that the Earth was warming due to mankind emitting greenhouse gasses, it was ...2 weeks ago
There is a military phrase: “Full spectrum dominance”. It refers to the all-encompassing policy to dominate across all spheres of war. Lately, that has come to include the internet – in other words, cyberwarfare initiatives. That is in addition to land, sea, air and the like. Now, if ...3 weeks ago
Opportunities to dodge tax are shrinking with the completion of a new tax agreement with Switzerland, Revenue Minister Stuart Nash announced today. Mr Nash and the Swiss Ambassador David Vogelsanger have today signed documents to update the double tax agreement (DTA). The previous DTA was signed in 1980. “Double tax ...2 weeks ago
That’s the vision of Anthony Rimell, Chair of the Christchurch Tenants’ Protection Association, and Riccarton Ward City Council Candidate. ...42 mins ago
Jacinda Ardern’s election campaign was high on hope but this Government should remember that those who encourage what cannot be achieved are quickly found out. ...16 mins ago
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Professor Tim Bentley, Director of Research, professor of Work and Organisation, Massey University According to the World Health Organisation (WHO), the workplace can be a positive force for improving mental health. But many workers are exposed to work environments that are damaging ...39 mins ago
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Rosemary Stanton, Visiting Fellow, School of Medical Sciences, UNSW Research Checks interrogate newly published studies and how they’re reported in the media. The analysis is undertaken by one or more academics not involved with the study, and reviewed by another, to make ...53 mins ago
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Associate Professor Ralph Brougham Chapman, Director, Environmental Studies, Victoria University of Wellington CC BY-NDClimate Explained is a collaboration between The Conversation, Stuff and the New Zealand Science Media Centre to answer your questions about climate change. If you have a question you’d ...53 mins ago
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Christopher Sheil, Visiting Senior Fellow in History, UNSW The results of the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics biennial survey of income and wealth met have met with an uneven response, perhaps in part due to a slipshod press release. Released with the ...54 mins ago
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Christina Lee, Senior Lecturer in Literary and Cultural Studies, Curtin University This story contains spoilers for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. While promoting Once Upon a Time in Hollywood at the Cannes Film Festival, filmmaker Quentin Tarantino was asked why Margot ...54 mins ago
The finance minister is accusing Simon Bridges of "electioneering" and introducing "the very worst of American politics'' to New Zealand. ...1 hour ago
Good morning, and welcome to The Bulletin. In today’s edition: National cries foul over parliamentary costing unit idea, Ngawha Prison heavily criticised in report, and fuel market study confirms prices are high.The government have announced a recommendation to create an official, independent parliamentary costing unit, reports the NZ Herald. The aim is to ...2 hours ago
Phil Goff and John Tamihere are into round 10 of 23 debates planned before the mayoral election in October, and they're punching hard, not resting on the ropes or pulling eachother into dull political clinches. ...3 hours ago
An environmental group floats ideas for protecting the Mackenzie Basin’s landscapes. ...3 hours ago
So who is Jennie Wyllie, thrust into the spotlight in New Zealand netball’s darkest hour, and now holding the key to the cabinet storing the sport’s three greatest prizes? ...4 hours ago
The fundamental problem with silver bullets is they permit a ‘business as usual’ approach to farming when that is neither ecologically sustainable nor economically desirable. ...4 hours ago
With fewer kākā beak plants in the wild than kākāpō, conservationists have been testing novel ways to hold the fort on extinction. ...4 hours ago
Australia have one hand on the Ashes, and two feet upon the moral high ground, after the second test match in England. ...4 hours ago
Should we worry about robots taking over? Not anytime soon, says the University of Auckland's Dr Craig Sutherland. ...4 hours ago
Heartbreaking stories of cancer sufferers who need expensive drugs are helped into the spotlight by the drug companies that will benefit. ...4 hours ago
Pacific Media Watch Newsdesk Papua New Guinea’s EMTV news and current affairs manager Neville Choi has been sacked after six years of service in this role, triggering strong protests from staff in the country’s main television news service. EMTV staff called for the reinstatement of Choi and for the ...9 hours ago
Plans for an independent body to cost political policies seems sensible - Simon Bridges' opposition borders on dangerous. ...11 hours ago
Refugee leaders and advocacy groups call for an end to discriminatory refugee policy. ...12 hours ago
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Bradley L Garrett, Research Fellow, University of Sydney A small plane looped through the tranquil and cloudless Sydney sky today, spewing engine-heated liquid paraffin from its exhaust, creating puffy tracers. As people all over the city watched from rooftop bars, beach towels ...14 hours ago
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Jane Howard, Deputy Section Editor: Arts + Culture You might picture a book club around your neighbour’s coffee table, or over beers at the local pub – but what if it took place in Parliament House? This is the question being asked ...15 hours ago
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Stephen Duckett, Director, Health Program, Grattan Institute It was a key plank of what was dubbed the most significant package of private health insurance reforms in more than a decade. From April 1 this year, private health insurers have been permitted to ...16 hours ago
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One great protest song. Thank you Mr Finn. Well done Miley and Ariana.
While we’re chucking out knighthoods I think the Finn brothers should share one. Half Sir Neil and Half Sir Tim, I think they’d dig that.
Tim didn’t write it, wasn’t in crowded house till 3rd release woodface.
The latest 1 News-Colmar Brunton poll:
National 49% (up from 46)
Labour 30% (no change)
Greens 9% (down from 11)
NZ First 9% (up from 8)
Maori Party 1% (down from 4)
ACT 1% (no change)
TOP 1% (up from 0)
Undecided 12%
Refused to answer 4%
Field work conducted 27-31 May.
Preferred Prime Minister:
Bill English 29% (up from 26)
Andrew Little 8% (up from 7)
Winston Peters 7% (down from 9)
Jacinda Ardern 6%
Rogue.
About this time (about 3 months out) in the last election and the election before I seem to remember that CM was bouncing up in the mid-50s. Someone who keeps track of the polls might provide a comparison.
I wonder if :-
1. They have changed their methodology.
or
2. The public demand for this arrogant pack of the self-entitled is a lot lower this election around.
After all National and their coalition dummies regularly got more than 60% in the last couple of elections from CM polls at 3 months out. Then slid down to just getting a couple of MPs above the majority.
BTW: I consider that the only time that CM are remotely accurate is in the week before the election when they curiously move National down to something close to the end result.
I recall someone mentioning a ‘budget bounce’. Or tea leaves. No, wait, it was chicken livers.
2014 Colmar Brunton polls for National:
22–26 March 2014 – 47%
17–21 May 2014 – 51%
21–25 June 2014 – 50%
19–23 July 2014 – 52%
9–13 August 2014 – 50%
23–27 August 2014 – 48%
30 August – 3 September 2014 – 50%
13–17 September 2014 – 45%
Election result: 47.04%
Labour:
22–26 March 2014 – 31%
17–21 May 2014 – 30%
21–25 June 2014 – 29%
19–23 July 2014 – 28%
9–13 August 2014 – 26%
23–27 August 2014 – 28%
30 August – 3 September 2014 – 25%
13–17 September 2014 – 25%
Election result: 25.13%
Labour won’t want to follow a similar pattern.
Colmar was a bit generous to labour in 2014. Hopefully they have better methods in 2017 or this is bad news
Or your horoscope is more reliable than the result of a single opinion poll.
Maybe. I am getting tired of the she’ll be right attitude that many seem to be infected with which can be seen with those who dismiss the polls and assume we will just win.
These polls are real.
I don’t assume we’ll just win. Or rather, I assume if we do win it will be “only just”.
I also don’t assume we will win, but I think the whole polling thing is misleading and prescriptive.
Although I’m sure it’s working well for Corbyn right now.
The July one is probably about the closest for the relative time of the election. This coming election is about 60 days earlier.
19–23 July 2014 – 52% cf 49% National
19–23 July 2014 – 28% cf 30% Labour
Roughly a 5% swing. Plus of course you have to consider the other parties. Because there hasn’t been a non-coalition government possible in NZ since 1993.
The coalition situation is quite different to 2014.
National doesn’t appear to have gained anything from the demise of the Conservative vote. That means that they are still significantly diminished compared to last election because they are the natural home for that vote.
Act and UF are essentially still defunct unless National want to waste votes on them again. The MP is probably going to drop down below 1 MP vote in the part stakes and even with the inherent sitting MP conservatism of the Maori electorates, Flavell may have reelection issues. Hard to see how National would get to a majority with their usual gaggle of desiccated past parties.
Meanwhile the Greens and NZ First are still polling well.
TOP? Unlikely to make a good run and their policies are even worse for National than NZF’s are. I rather suspect that National would have problems with either party, and the MPs from those parties would face a revolt of their parties if they go into coalition with National.
And above all it is unlikely to have anything like a Internet-Mana or Dotcom to distract, divert and disgust this time.
What we are in now is a 4 horse race – not a 2 horse….. And incidentally, why do so many conservatives STILL keep thinking that it is a goddamn two headed race. Nostalgic wishful longing for the 197s and 1980s still?
No the 2014 election was Saturday 20 September.
I agree the coalition situation is very different, the whole situation is quite different. No Conservatives (of any significance) or Dotcom, and TOP is quite different. No Key, No Cunliffe, no Norman.
Hey Pete just checking. Have you ever posted an opinion poll when there was a significant bounce for the left?
Has anyone?
I post all of the New Zealand political opinion polls. They go either way.
he meant on TS.
I think he can speak for himself.
I post results here if no one has already done it – significant bounces to the left tend to be fairly quickly posted here so less need for me to do it.
I simply posted the Colmar results here without comment because I knew it would be of some interest. You have diverted from the actual topic a tad.
I was wondering that too micky, and whether he posted the left bouncing ones at Farrar’s blog and what happens if he does.
More unsubstantiated ‘wondering’.
I rarely post anything at Kiwiblog these days. If I posted poll results there it would be more likely to be a swing against National to ‘encourage discussion’.
This is the stat to keep an eye on;
Undecided 12%
Refused to answer 4%
That is a whooping 16% of the vote. This must be concerning to 3rd term regime seeking a 4th term.
Maori party down to a one trick pony on this slump if they get back at all? Peter Dunne he is toast, a gone burger.
The little twerp from Epsom has no pulling power and would do better by replacing him with Jordan Williams as leader.
NZ First will rise when Jones comes out of the closet.
Cat killer needs to be neutered 1% at this point in time signals 2.5 % so by not liking his posts and ripping TOP to bits when the puss puts his boot in his mouth is advisable.
I’ve been trying to decide whether to write posts about TOP’s shortcomings or just stay away from the topic entirely.
Didn’t Peters rule out Jones the other day?
I think most polls have a group of undecided/RTA.
I wouldn’t get to excited about these folks as if they can’t be bothered to answer a question on the phone I’d be surprised if they have the energy to toddle off to the voting booth on election day.
Labour are leaving their run to 40% a bit late arnt they ?
MMP. I wish all you blowhards would understand it. When the Greens get 10-15% Labour has to get 35-30% to pretty well finish it.
The blowhard who said they wanted to get labour to 40% was the Labour Party president.
https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/labour-sets-target-40-per-cent-party-vote
Heh – Priceless
so? Does it matter what they get if they can form govt? I’m sure you can understand the difference between setting a goal and still having a good outcome even if one doesn’t reach it.
At the moment labour are heading towards achieving neither.
Yawn.
… Latest One News-Colmar Brunton …… Previous CB
Nat + Maori + ACT …… 51% ….. …… ….……. … 51%
Lab + Green + NZF ….. 48% … …… …..………. . 49%
Still …… not a great Poll for ze Left
Of course if nzf come with the nats …..
One doth hear on the grapevine that Winnie only likely to head Lab’s way at next Election if – at a minimum – Lab+Green = Nat’s Party Vote
Only a possibility mind – not necessarily cast in stone
Dude getting mocked on twitter for claiming that NZ is ungrateful given that the US has been protecting us and given us our freedom (reference throwing water-filled condoms at an effigy of Tillerson),
Be grateful you are not speaking Japanese or German
What???
The Russians beat the Germans, not us.
The USA came into World War 2 only on the end of a well-placed Japanese boot.
Don’t give us that old simplistic drivel about how the Americans selflessly saved us: they were fighting for themselves, and we were damned lucky that our interests co-incided.
The Russians had a lot of help from the USA in terms of equipment…sure the Russians spilled the blood, but with out aid from the USA it may have been different.
You last paragraph is nonsense…without the USA, NZ and Australia would have been in a tonne of trouble.
Bollocks – in the well-schooled Western propaganda-influenced, you think that the minimal stuff the West shipped through to Murmansk made a difference? Rubbish. The tanks we sent were feeble, little competition for the superior German Panzer 4s, let alone the Tigers.
Russia had moved all of its important military production industry East of the Urals. The war-winning tank (the T-34) was produced there, in huge numbers. Along with good aircraft that defeated the Luftwaffe. We don’t hear about this.
80% of Hitler’s war effort went into the East, the Russians took the major impact, and did the major work. All our heroic efforts were against only 20% of Germany’s war effort.
NZ and Australia were defended by the USA because it was in the USA’s interest not to lose those areas to the Japanese. Sorry – that makes perfect sense. Had the USA not needed our countries unoccupied by the Japanese, things could well have been much different.
In Vino – you are a cock.
You dont think the 3000 liberty ships made a difference to the European war effort? or the half million US troops that died?
Not enough to change the course of the war. Without them Russia would still have crushed Germany.
That was a forgone conclusion from the time that Germany invaded Russia.
I recall a quote from Churchill saying when Germany invaded Russia, that was the moment he knew the Allies would win the war.
Have a wee look at the southern eastern front, and one battle – the Crimean Offensive – David C. Look at the cost of that one battle on the Russians and the Germans. It’s bloody terrifying the loss of human life on both sides. When you consider it’s faught in a area smaller than Otago, and the battle lasted less than a month.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_Offensive
I’d recommend this book as well.”Lost Victories: The War Memoirs of Hitler’s Most Brilliant General”
by Erich von Manstein
Brutally honest about the Soviet war machine, and how it wrecked the German Army. Plus, he was one of the best Generals in WW2 who we never hear about, I’m glad he got shafted by Hitler, we all should be.
Very true on equipment the Churchil III was a waste of space, nice armor but a useless gun. The Valentine (2 From memory) was a good tank, but very few made it into Russia in working order. The Matilda (sorry canny remember the make off the top of my head) was another OK tank, but again lacked a decent gun so the Russians used it in a support role. Most of the USA tanks could not handle the cold. M4 was a great tank, but would seize up in freezing temps – which was good for the USA to learn come the invasion of Europe post D-Day planing.
As for aircraft, all of the British aircraft suffered in the cold and we under powered. As for Artillary, this was welcomed by the Russians, as it was solid, but they did not get much. The best thing about the aid to Russia was the psychological effect. The feeling for the Russia’s that they were not alone.
As for us and the Aussies being stuffed without the yanks. Silly question Chucky do you know who was the first army to beat, and turn back a major Japaneses invasion force? I’ll give you a hint, it happened in Papua New Guinea. It opened up the door for a couple of major naval victories, and meant that the marines didn’t get wasted at Guadalcanal.
I’m not denying the Yanks did a good job, they did. I think you under estimate what us and the Aussies did.
Did you know that some of the best fighter planes in WWII were Russian?
The best tanks were:
From the same article comes the vital point though:
The US could have kept out of the European front and the Germans would have been crushed by the Russians.
His last paragraph makes perfect sense. You attacking him by restating his position doesn’t.
The United Nations defeated the Axis, actually. So the UN (the “Allies”) fought together against Germany – the USSR couldn’t have destroyed Army Group Centre without US rations, avgas, trucks, jeeps and radios for example. And the Germans would have had a lot stronger defenses in the East if the 22,000 heavy anti-aircraft guns they had defending the Reich could have been used there.
The Americans were literally shooting down the entire Luftwaffe fighter strength every 3 months at one stage in early 1944 as the German fighters desperately tried to stop the bombers flattening their cities. Basically the Red Air Force had no opposition because the Anglo-Americans shot them all down.
There was a “second front” against Germany – in the air – long before D-Day.
However, it was the Americans alone who beat the Japanese.
Much of what you say is true, but I think I remember reading that the Luftwaffe lost just as heavily in the East before the Mustang fighter arrived to do the coup de grace in the West. 1944 is very late in the war, and the Russians were well in control by then
The fact remains that 80% of Germany’s war effort went into the East. Saying that we rescued Russia (as you imply) by forcing the Germans to keep a few resources in the west hardly convinces.
Off topic, but this “effort” thing is a really, really interesting subject to a history fan like me. By 1943, the war in the East had largely degenerated into a WW1 style slogging match between two huge armies of militia with motorised formations only common in decisive zones. The Germans looked good only because often the Soviets were worse (at Anzio the Allies were astonished at the inflexible infantry tactics and poor artillery co-ordination of the “good” German divisions transferred from the East).
Now, if you measure effort as a simple mathematical equation – 200 divisions in the east, 40 in the West, therefore 80% of the effort was in the east – then you are right. But since 1914 numbers have only told (an increasingly less important) part of the story. Modern weapons means concentrating more men at the point of attack simply increases losses.
The Germans themselves were aware of the technology and tactical flexibility gap between their average units and the western allies, whose entire armies were motorised and lavishly supplied with radios and support weapons. The German army in Normandy featured the cream of their armoured forces – ten full strength divisions including no less than five of the seven Waffen SS armoured divisions.
In a similar vein, although the Allied bomber offensive required relatively little manpower to defend against it consumed an outsized proportion of the output of the German high technology sector in radars, fire control systems, optics, large and sophisticated night and day fighters, and the highly skilled pilots and workforce needed to support that effort.
Since the 1980s there has been a revision of the impact the western allies had on the overall war situation. Without wanting to belittle the huge sacrifices of the USSR, technology had a major impact on the way the Western allies fought the war. For example, in the entire Stalingrad campaign the Soviets lost around 1.5 million to inflict 800,000 losses on the Axis. At the same time, the Western allies decisively defeated the Axis in North Africa, losing 240,000 (since 1941) to inflict 900,000 losses on the Axis.
Nope, the UN didn’t really exist until after the war. Prior to then it was the Allies.
[citation needed]
Please note, Russia has been a major producer of oil and oil products for decades.
I suspect that those AA guns would have had difficulty with the 84000 T34s.
Sounds more like Western propaganda than reality.
Sanctuary, the Russians were about to piss all over the Japs. The Yanks dropped the bomb to ‘warn’ the Russians.
Well, piss all over them in Manchuria, maybe, but the Russians weren’t getting ready to invade the home islands any time soon.
The best explanation I heard for the yanks nuking cities was that it never occurred to anyone to not drop the bomb: the army didn’t want to invade the home islands, the air force wanted to use it as the fulfillment of strategic bombing, the manhatten and b29 projects needed to be justified, and yes the diplomats had their eye on post-war negotiations.
The only ones who didn’t see a need for it were the submariners, who’d basically done Japan into the ground already.
Lots of self-centered reasons for individual groups supporting it, nobody really opposing it.
A long time ago for me to now quote a source, but I seem to remember an argument that once the Russians had invaded shoreline near Japan, they would be able to mount an invasion before the Americans could ever assemble the distant naval build-up they would need. What they took to Iwo Jima would not suffice…
So maybe there was a thought of warning off the Russians?
Interesting, looks like your recollection is correct. So it might have been an additional factor.
Must confess I’ve never really looked at the Russians in the pacific. Will have to do some catch-up 🙂
Soviet–Japanese War (1945)
yeah I knew they were transferring land forces and tooling through China and some of the smaller island groups, I just wasn’t aware they had the capacity to land (and protect the landing forces) thirty-odd divisions in the Pacific anywhere close to that time.
Bearing in mind that most of the US island-hopping was bad enough going when they routinely provided numerous destroyers, battleships and even aircraft carriers of different sizes to cover the landing ships, I hadn’t really picked that a large-scale soviet naval landing was even on the horizon.
In his exhortation to his troops on the eve of D-Day, Eisenhower referred to the ‘united nations’.
“But this is the year 1944. Much has happened since the Nazi triumphs of 1940-41. The United Nations have inflicted upon the Germans great defeats, in open battle, man-to-man.”
Eisenhower had a wider view of who defeated the Nazis than ‘America First’.
To Mac1
Eisenhower, like Churchill, had preferred to fight around peripheral areas, while their two biggest enemies (Nazi Germany and Communist Russia) slogged it out against each other. But then, the Russians started to be obvious winners. So Eisenhower and Churchill had to rush to invade Europe from the west, lest the Russians take over the whole lot.
Eisenhower knew bloody well who was defeating the Germans – the Russians. Why else did D-day come about?
To Sanctuary:
Umm, language?
“The Americans were literally shooting down the entire Luftwaffe fighter strength every 3 months at one stage in early 1944 as the German fighters desperately tried to stop the bombers flattening their cities.” Literally??
If they shot down the entire Luftwaffe fighter strength every 3 months, the German production rate must have been phenomenal.
Sounds bloody fishy to me. And maybe a little metaphorical rather than literal.
And how can ‘every 3 months’ be at only one stage in early 1944 – a period of 3 months at the most? For just how long did this ‘every 3 months’ period last?
Care to rephrase most of what you wrote?
C’mon IV. I have seen enough Hollywood war movies to know that the Americans saved the world in WW2
Oh darn, I had forgotten about them!
Yes, you must be right.
Underneath the stupid is a serious issue: how valuable is the five eyes relationship, and given Trump’s treachery, is a “four eyes” relationship worth pursuing?
Posted this earlier on Daily Review. But being a long Weekend got my dates wrong! ….Doesn’t do much for my credibility I know!, i.e., (Doesn’t know what day of the week it is…)
If appropriate thought it important enough to resubmit in today’s Review, given posts, and threads of late… And inspiration that Sarah gives!
And yesterdays threads/Posts can sometimes be Old News… sadly!
Anyhow… Now for someone with Guts…
“Law student Sarah Thomson has launched a judicial review of the New Zealand Government’s completely inadequate greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets.
Sarah Thomson and her lawyers now have a firm date for the hearing of her judicial review: It will be at the High Court, 2 Molesworth Street, Wellington, from 26-28 June, start time 10am.
Sarah is encouraging people to attend the hearing to show their support for the need for action on climate change. Do contribute to the important national conversation on climate change in any ways that you can.
Sarah explains her case and why she’s taking it: “….
http://coalaction.org.nz/news/stand-sarah-climate-high-court-wellington-26-28-june
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11862450
Poll was done straight after the Budget with all the Government spin and before the gaping holes were exposed. Commentators all expected a post cabinet bounce. Once there is a full manifesto released by Labour and nothing new from National the polls will inevitably close.
Speaking of a Labour manifesto…
There is a popular one in the UK.
I wonder if we could get a copy.
Hey mighty mod. The Daily Review date should be 7/6/17. You can’t get away with foisting July on us before we have had June. And I don’t want to miss out on the Brit election excitement in the moss pit.
Right you are, fixed. Mighty Mod – I like it! Maybe I should get a cape.
Nah. Haven’t you seen the incredibles? No capes for super her0s. They are too dangerous.
Don’t you guys ever go to bed and get some shut-eye?
Yes. But I have also been known to get up when I can’t sleep and do some reading until I sleep.
I need to find another really interesting but boring book. I used to have one that was about the trading voyages to the ‘Dutch East Indies’ from the 16th century to the 19th. Usually I could manage about 10 pages before I dozed off.
The Radicalism of the American Revolution. Quite an interesting book that argues the US revolutionary war was the product of a hundred years of demographic change that fractured local hereditary power structures (e.g. looking at the changing percentage of settlements where the local mayor or magistrate was son or grandson of the previous mayor or magistrate). Much deeper than the usual myth that a bunch of folks suddenly decided to dump tea in a harbour because enlughtenment.
States a good case and really describes a fundamental demographic schism, but drier than a scorpion’s toilet paper. Unless you like tables of import/export duties.
Unless you like tables of import/export duties.
I love them. They will be like the lists of inventory and auction prices of goods shipped around the world when sail was the fastest method of travel. Incredibly interesting, boring as shit, slower than a snail sprinting, and an instant cure for sleeplessness.