National 49% (up from 46)
Labour 30% (no change)
Greens 9% (down from 11)
NZ First 9% (up from 8)
Maori Party 1% (down from 4)
ACT 1% (no change)
TOP 1% (up from 0)
Undecided 12%
Refused to answer 4%
Field work conducted 27-31 May.
Preferred Prime Minister:
Bill English 29% (up from 26)
Andrew Little 8% (up from 7)
Winston Peters 7% (down from 9)
Jacinda Ardern 6%
About this time (about 3 months out) in the last election and the election before I seem to remember that CM was bouncing up in the mid-50s. Someone who keeps track of the polls might provide a comparison.
I wonder if :-
1. They have changed their methodology.
or
2. The public demand for this arrogant pack of the self-entitled is a lot lower this election around.
After all National and their coalition dummies regularly got more than 60% in the last couple of elections from CM polls at 3 months out. Then slid down to just getting a couple of MPs above the majority.
BTW: I consider that the only time that CM are remotely accurate is in the week before the election when they curiously move National down to something close to the end result.
22–26 March 2014 – 47%
17–21 May 2014 – 51%
21–25 June 2014 – 50%
19–23 July 2014 – 52%
9–13 August 2014 – 50%
23–27 August 2014 – 48%
30 August – 3 September 2014 – 50%
13–17 September 2014 – 45%
Election result: 47.04%
Labour:
22–26 March 2014 – 31%
17–21 May 2014 – 30%
21–25 June 2014 – 29%
19–23 July 2014 – 28%
9–13 August 2014 – 26%
23–27 August 2014 – 28%
30 August – 3 September 2014 – 25%
13–17 September 2014 – 25%
Maybe. I am getting tired of the she’ll be right attitude that many seem to be infected with which can be seen with those who dismiss the polls and assume we will just win.
The July one is probably about the closest for the relative time of the election. This coming election is about 60 days earlier.
19–23 July 2014 – 52% cf 49% National
19–23 July 2014 – 28% cf 30% Labour
Roughly a 5% swing. Plus of course you have to consider the other parties. Because there hasn’t been a non-coalition government possible in NZ since 1993.
The coalition situation is quite different to 2014.
National doesn’t appear to have gained anything from the demise of the Conservative vote. That means that they are still significantly diminished compared to last election because they are the natural home for that vote.
Act and UF are essentially still defunct unless National want to waste votes on them again. The MP is probably going to drop down below 1 MP vote in the part stakes and even with the inherent sitting MP conservatism of the Maori electorates, Flavell may have reelection issues. Hard to see how National would get to a majority with their usual gaggle of desiccated past parties.
Meanwhile the Greens and NZ First are still polling well.
TOP? Unlikely to make a good run and their policies are even worse for National than NZF’s are. I rather suspect that National would have problems with either party, and the MPs from those parties would face a revolt of their parties if they go into coalition with National.
And above all it is unlikely to have anything like a Internet-Mana or Dotcom to distract, divert and disgust this time.
What we are in now is a 4 horse race – not a 2 horse….. And incidentally, why do so many conservatives STILL keep thinking that it is a goddamn two headed race. Nostalgic wishful longing for the 197s and 1980s still?
I agree the coalition situation is very different, the whole situation is quite different. No Conservatives (of any significance) or Dotcom, and TOP is quite different. No Key, No Cunliffe, no Norman.
I post results here if no one has already done it – significant bounces to the left tend to be fairly quickly posted here so less need for me to do it.
I simply posted the Colmar results here without comment because I knew it would be of some interest. You have diverted from the actual topic a tad.
I rarely post anything at Kiwiblog these days. If I posted poll results there it would be more likely to be a swing against National to ‘encourage discussion’.
That is a whooping 16% of the vote. This must be concerning to 3rd term regime seeking a 4th term.
Maori party down to a one trick pony on this slump if they get back at all? Peter Dunne he is toast, a gone burger.
The little twerp from Epsom has no pulling power and would do better by replacing him with Jordan Williams as leader.
NZ First will rise when Jones comes out of the closet.
Cat killer needs to be neutered 1% at this point in time signals 2.5 % so by not liking his posts and ripping TOP to bits when the puss puts his boot in his mouth is advisable.
I wouldn’t get to excited about these folks as if they can’t be bothered to answer a question on the phone I’d be surprised if they have the energy to toddle off to the voting booth on election day.
so? Does it matter what they get if they can form govt? I’m sure you can understand the difference between setting a goal and still having a good outcome even if one doesn’t reach it.
Dude getting mocked on twitter for claiming that NZ is ungrateful given that the US has been protecting us and given us our freedom (reference throwing water-filled condoms at an effigy of Tillerson),
The USA came into World War 2 only on the end of a well-placed Japanese boot.
Don’t give us that old simplistic drivel about how the Americans selflessly saved us: they were fighting for themselves, and we were damned lucky that our interests co-incided.
The Russians had a lot of help from the USA in terms of equipment…sure the Russians spilled the blood, but with out aid from the USA it may have been different.
You last paragraph is nonsense…without the USA, NZ and Australia would have been in a tonne of trouble.
Bollocks – in the well-schooled Western propaganda-influenced, you think that the minimal stuff the West shipped through to Murmansk made a difference? Rubbish. The tanks we sent were feeble, little competition for the superior German Panzer 4s, let alone the Tigers.
Russia had moved all of its important military production industry East of the Urals. The war-winning tank (the T-34) was produced there, in huge numbers. Along with good aircraft that defeated the Luftwaffe. We don’t hear about this.
80% of Hitler’s war effort went into the East, the Russians took the major impact, and did the major work. All our heroic efforts were against only 20% of Germany’s war effort.
NZ and Australia were defended by the USA because it was in the USA’s interest not to lose those areas to the Japanese. Sorry – that makes perfect sense. Had the USA not needed our countries unoccupied by the Japanese, things could well have been much different.
Have a wee look at the southern eastern front, and one battle – the Crimean Offensive – David C. Look at the cost of that one battle on the Russians and the Germans. It’s bloody terrifying the loss of human life on both sides. When you consider it’s faught in a area smaller than Otago, and the battle lasted less than a month.
I’d recommend this book as well.”Lost Victories: The War Memoirs of Hitler’s Most Brilliant General”
by Erich von Manstein
Brutally honest about the Soviet war machine, and how it wrecked the German Army. Plus, he was one of the best Generals in WW2 who we never hear about, I’m glad he got shafted by Hitler, we all should be.
Very true on equipment the Churchil III was a waste of space, nice armor but a useless gun. The Valentine (2 From memory) was a good tank, but very few made it into Russia in working order. The Matilda (sorry canny remember the make off the top of my head) was another OK tank, but again lacked a decent gun so the Russians used it in a support role. Most of the USA tanks could not handle the cold. M4 was a great tank, but would seize up in freezing temps – which was good for the USA to learn come the invasion of Europe post D-Day planing.
As for aircraft, all of the British aircraft suffered in the cold and we under powered. As for Artillary, this was welcomed by the Russians, as it was solid, but they did not get much. The best thing about the aid to Russia was the psychological effect. The feeling for the Russia’s that they were not alone.
As for us and the Aussies being stuffed without the yanks. Silly question Chucky do you know who was the first army to beat, and turn back a major Japaneses invasion force? I’ll give you a hint, it happened in Papua New Guinea. It opened up the door for a couple of major naval victories, and meant that the marines didn’t get wasted at Guadalcanal.
I’m not denying the Yanks did a good job, they did. I think you under estimate what us and the Aussies did.
The Russians had a lot of help from the USA in terms of equipment…sure the Russians spilled the blood, but with out aid from the USA it may have been different.
Did you know that some of the best fighter planes in WWII were Russian?
The final “best” air superiority fighter of the later period of the war in Europe was the Yakovlev Yak-3. Many top Soviet aces flew the Yak series of fighters, which started with the rather primitive Yak-1 and evolved into the Yak-3 air superiority and Yak-9 general purpose fighters. (See the article “The Yakovlev Yak-9” for more details about the latter model.) The Yak-9 was produced in greater numbers than any other Allied fighter of WW II, but it is the contemporary Yak-3 that was regarded as the best dogfighter on the ETO Eastern Front.
Some of Zaloga’s choices are less surprising. The only tank in “Armored Champions” to receive both the Tanker’s and Commander’s prize is the T-34 in 1941. Despite a two-man turret, its superior firepower, armor and mobility shocked the hitherto-invincible German panzers, as well as German infantry terrified to see their anti-tank guns bounce off the T-34’s thick skin.
From the same article comes the vital point though:
It is in 1943 that the contrast between technical capability and battlefield utility becomes most striking. Not surprisingly, the Tiger I is Tanker’s Choice because of its thick armor and powerful gun, which created “Tiger fright” among Allied troops. But Tigers were expensive, few in number (only 1,347 were built, compared to 84,000 T-34s) and hard to maintain. The depleted and desperate German infantry divisions on the Eastern Front needed armor support to stave off massed waves of T-34s, and a few battalions of overworked Tigers were not going to save them.
The US could have kept out of the European front and the Germans would have been crushed by the Russians.
You last paragraph is nonsense…without the USA, NZ and Australia would have been in a tonne of trouble.
His last paragraph makes perfect sense. You attacking him by restating his position doesn’t.
The United Nations defeated the Axis, actually. So the UN (the “Allies”) fought together against Germany – the USSR couldn’t have destroyed Army Group Centre without US rations, avgas, trucks, jeeps and radios for example. And the Germans would have had a lot stronger defenses in the East if the 22,000 heavy anti-aircraft guns they had defending the Reich could have been used there.
The Americans were literally shooting down the entire Luftwaffe fighter strength every 3 months at one stage in early 1944 as the German fighters desperately tried to stop the bombers flattening their cities. Basically the Red Air Force had no opposition because the Anglo-Americans shot them all down.
There was a “second front” against Germany – in the air – long before D-Day.
However, it was the Americans alone who beat the Japanese.
Much of what you say is true, but I think I remember reading that the Luftwaffe lost just as heavily in the East before the Mustang fighter arrived to do the coup de grace in the West. 1944 is very late in the war, and the Russians were well in control by then
The fact remains that 80% of Germany’s war effort went into the East. Saying that we rescued Russia (as you imply) by forcing the Germans to keep a few resources in the west hardly convinces.
Off topic, but this “effort” thing is a really, really interesting subject to a history fan like me. By 1943, the war in the East had largely degenerated into a WW1 style slogging match between two huge armies of militia with motorised formations only common in decisive zones. The Germans looked good only because often the Soviets were worse (at Anzio the Allies were astonished at the inflexible infantry tactics and poor artillery co-ordination of the “good” German divisions transferred from the East).
Now, if you measure effort as a simple mathematical equation – 200 divisions in the east, 40 in the West, therefore 80% of the effort was in the east – then you are right. But since 1914 numbers have only told (an increasingly less important) part of the story. Modern weapons means concentrating more men at the point of attack simply increases losses.
The Germans themselves were aware of the technology and tactical flexibility gap between their average units and the western allies, whose entire armies were motorised and lavishly supplied with radios and support weapons. The German army in Normandy featured the cream of their armoured forces – ten full strength divisions including no less than five of the seven Waffen SS armoured divisions.
In a similar vein, although the Allied bomber offensive required relatively little manpower to defend against it consumed an outsized proportion of the output of the German high technology sector in radars, fire control systems, optics, large and sophisticated night and day fighters, and the highly skilled pilots and workforce needed to support that effort.
Since the 1980s there has been a revision of the impact the western allies had on the overall war situation. Without wanting to belittle the huge sacrifices of the USSR, technology had a major impact on the way the Western allies fought the war. For example, in the entire Stalingrad campaign the Soviets lost around 1.5 million to inflict 800,000 losses on the Axis. At the same time, the Western allies decisively defeated the Axis in North Africa, losing 240,000 (since 1941) to inflict 900,000 losses on the Axis.
And the Germans would have had a lot stronger defenses in the East if the 22,000 heavy anti-aircraft guns they had defending the Reich could have been used there.
I suspect that those AA guns would have had difficulty with the 84000 T34s.
The Americans were literally shooting down the entire Luftwaffe fighter strength every 3 months at one stage in early 1944 as the German fighters desperately tried to stop the bombers flattening their cities. Basically the Red Air Force had no opposition because the Anglo-Americans shot them all down.
Well, piss all over them in Manchuria, maybe, but the Russians weren’t getting ready to invade the home islands any time soon.
The best explanation I heard for the yanks nuking cities was that it never occurred to anyone to not drop the bomb: the army didn’t want to invade the home islands, the air force wanted to use it as the fulfillment of strategic bombing, the manhatten and b29 projects needed to be justified, and yes the diplomats had their eye on post-war negotiations.
The only ones who didn’t see a need for it were the submariners, who’d basically done Japan into the ground already.
Lots of self-centered reasons for individual groups supporting it, nobody really opposing it.
A long time ago for me to now quote a source, but I seem to remember an argument that once the Russians had invaded shoreline near Japan, they would be able to mount an invasion before the Americans could ever assemble the distant naval build-up they would need. What they took to Iwo Jima would not suffice…
So maybe there was a thought of warning off the Russians?
yeah I knew they were transferring land forces and tooling through China and some of the smaller island groups, I just wasn’t aware they had the capacity to land (and protect the landing forces) thirty-odd divisions in the Pacific anywhere close to that time.
Bearing in mind that most of the US island-hopping was bad enough going when they routinely provided numerous destroyers, battleships and even aircraft carriers of different sizes to cover the landing ships, I hadn’t really picked that a large-scale soviet naval landing was even on the horizon.
In his exhortation to his troops on the eve of D-Day, Eisenhower referred to the ‘united nations’.
“But this is the year 1944. Much has happened since the Nazi triumphs of 1940-41. The United Nations have inflicted upon the Germans great defeats, in open battle, man-to-man.”
Eisenhower had a wider view of who defeated the Nazis than ‘America First’.
To Mac1
Eisenhower, like Churchill, had preferred to fight around peripheral areas, while their two biggest enemies (Nazi Germany and Communist Russia) slogged it out against each other. But then, the Russians started to be obvious winners. So Eisenhower and Churchill had to rush to invade Europe from the west, lest the Russians take over the whole lot.
Eisenhower knew bloody well who was defeating the Germans – the Russians. Why else did D-day come about?
Umm, language?
“The Americans were literally shooting down the entire Luftwaffe fighter strength every 3 months at one stage in early 1944 as the German fighters desperately tried to stop the bombers flattening their cities.” Literally??
If they shot down the entire Luftwaffe fighter strength every 3 months, the German production rate must have been phenomenal.
Sounds bloody fishy to me. And maybe a little metaphorical rather than literal.
And how can ‘every 3 months’ be at only one stage in early 1944 – a period of 3 months at the most? For just how long did this ‘every 3 months’ period last?
Care to rephrase most of what you wrote?
Underneath the stupid is a serious issue: how valuable is the five eyes relationship, and given Trump’s treachery, is a “four eyes” relationship worth pursuing?
Posted this earlier on Daily Review. But being a long Weekend got my dates wrong! ….Doesn’t do much for my credibility I know!, i.e., (Doesn’t know what day of the week it is…)
If appropriate thought it important enough to resubmit in today’s Review, given posts, and threads of late… And inspiration that Sarah gives!
And yesterdays threads/Posts can sometimes be Old News… sadly!
Anyhow… Now for someone with Guts…
“Law student Sarah Thomson has launched a judicial review of the New Zealand Government’s completely inadequate greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets.
Sarah Thomson and her lawyers now have a firm date for the hearing of her judicial review: It will be at the High Court, 2 Molesworth Street, Wellington, from 26-28 June, start time 10am.
Sarah is encouraging people to attend the hearing to show their support for the need for action on climate change. Do contribute to the important national conversation on climate change in any ways that you can.
Sarah explains her case and why she’s taking it: “….
Poll was done straight after the Budget with all the Government spin and before the gaping holes were exposed. Commentators all expected a post cabinet bounce. Once there is a full manifesto released by Labour and nothing new from National the polls will inevitably close.
Hey mighty mod. The Daily Review date should be 7/6/17. You can’t get away with foisting July on us before we have had June. And I don’t want to miss out on the Brit election excitement in the moss pit.
Yes. But I have also been known to get up when I can’t sleep and do some reading until I sleep.
I need to find another really interesting but boring book. I used to have one that was about the trading voyages to the ‘Dutch East Indies’ from the 16th century to the 19th. Usually I could manage about 10 pages before I dozed off.
The Radicalism of the American Revolution. Quite an interesting book that argues the US revolutionary war was the product of a hundred years of demographic change that fractured local hereditary power structures (e.g. looking at the changing percentage of settlements where the local mayor or magistrate was son or grandson of the previous mayor or magistrate). Much deeper than the usual myth that a bunch of folks suddenly decided to dump tea in a harbour because enlughtenment.
States a good case and really describes a fundamental demographic schism, but drier than a scorpion’s toilet paper. Unless you like tables of import/export duties.
I love them. They will be like the lists of inventory and auction prices of goods shipped around the world when sail was the fastest method of travel. Incredibly interesting, boring as shit, slower than a snail sprinting, and an instant cure for sleeplessness.
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Maintaining a safe and reliable vehicle requires regular inspections. Whether it’s a routine maintenance checkup or a safety inspection, knowing how long the process will take can help you plan your day accordingly. This article delves into the factors that influence the duration of a car inspection and provides an ...
Mazda Motor Corporation, commonly known as Mazda, is a Japanese multinational automaker headquartered in Fuchu, Aki District, Hiroshima Prefecture, Japan. The company was founded in 1920 as the Toyo Cork Kogyo Co., Ltd., and began producing vehicles in 1931. Mazda is primarily known for its production of passenger cars, but ...
Your car battery is an essential component that provides power to start your engine, operate your electrical systems, and store energy. Over time, batteries can weaken and lose their ability to hold a charge, which can lead to starting problems, power failures, and other issues. Replacing your battery before it ...
In most states, you cannot register a car without a valid driver’s license. However, there are a few exceptions to this rule. Exceptions to the RuleIf you are under 18 years old: In some states, you can register a car in your name even if you do not ...
Mazda, a Japanese automotive manufacturer with a rich history of innovation and engineering excellence, has emerged as a formidable player in the global car market. Known for its reputation of producing high-quality, fuel-efficient, and driver-oriented vehicles, Mazda has consistently garnered praise from industry experts and consumers alike. In this article, ...
Struts are an essential part of a car’s suspension system. They are responsible for supporting the weight of the car and damping the oscillations of the springs. Struts are typically made of steel or aluminum and are filled with hydraulic fluid. How Do Struts Work? Struts work by transferring the ...
Car registration is a mandatory process that all vehicle owners must complete annually. This process involves registering your car with the Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) and paying an associated fee. The registration process ensures that your vehicle is properly licensed and insured, and helps law enforcement and other authorities ...
Zoom is a video conferencing service that allows you to share your screen, webcam, and audio with other participants. In addition to sharing your own audio, you can also share the audio from your computer with other participants. This can be useful for playing music, sharing presentations with audio, or ...
Building your own computer can be a rewarding and cost-effective way to get a high-performance machine tailored to your specific needs. However, it also requires careful planning and execution, and one of the most important factors to consider is the time it will take. The exact time it takes to ...
Sleep mode is a power-saving state that allows your computer to quickly resume operation without having to boot up from scratch. This can be useful if you need to step away from your computer for a short period of time but don’t want to shut it down completely. There are ...
Introduction Computer-Assisted Translation (CAT) has revolutionized the field of translation by harnessing the power of technology to assist human translators in their work. This innovative approach combines specialized software with human expertise to improve the efficiency, accuracy, and consistency of translations. In this comprehensive article, we will delve into the ...
In today’s digital age, mobile devices have become an indispensable part of our daily lives. Among the vast array of portable computing options available, iPads and tablet computers stand out as two prominent contenders. While both offer similar functionalities, there are subtle yet significant differences between these two devices. This ...
A computer is an electronic device that can be programmed to carry out a set of instructions. The basic components of a computer are the processor, memory, storage, input devices, and output devices. The Processor The processor, also known as the central processing unit (CPU), is the brain of the ...
Voice Memos is a convenient app on your iPhone that allows you to quickly record and store audio snippets. These recordings can be useful for a variety of purposes, such as taking notes, capturing ideas, or recording interviews. While you can listen to your voice memos on your iPhone, you ...
Laptop screens are essential for interacting with our devices and accessing information. However, when lines appear on the screen, it can be frustrating and disrupt productivity. Understanding the underlying causes of these lines is crucial for finding effective solutions. Types of Screen Lines Horizontal lines: Also known as scan ...
Right-clicking is a common and essential computer operation that allows users to access additional options and settings. While most desktop computers have dedicated right-click buttons on their mice, laptops often do not have these buttons due to space limitations. This article will provide a comprehensive guide on how to right-click ...
Powering up and shutting down your ASUS laptop is an essential task for any laptop user. Locating the power button can sometimes be a hassle, especially if you’re new to ASUS laptops. This article will provide a comprehensive guide on where to find the power button on different ASUS laptop ...
Dell laptops are renowned for their reliability, performance, and versatility. Whether you’re a student, a professional, or just someone who needs a reliable computing device, a Dell laptop can meet your needs. However, if you’re new to Dell laptops, you may be wondering how to get started. In this comprehensive ...
Two-thirds of the country think that “New Zealand’s economy is rigged to advantage the rich and powerful”. They also believe that “New Zealand needs a strong leader to take the country back from the rich and powerful”. These are just two of a handful of stunning new survey results released ...
In today’s digital world, screenshots have become an indispensable tool for communication and documentation. Whether you need to capture an important email, preserve a website page, or share an error message, screenshots allow you to quickly and easily preserve digital information. If you’re an Asus laptop user, there are several ...
A factory reset restores your Gateway laptop to its original factory settings, erasing all data, apps, and personalizations. This can be necessary to resolve software issues, remove viruses, or prepare your laptop for sale or transfer. Here’s a step-by-step guide on how to factory reset your Gateway laptop: Method 1: ...
Our two-tiered system for veterans’ support is out of step with our closest partners, and all parties in Parliament should work together to fix it, Labour veterans’ affairs spokesperson Greg O’Connor said. ...
Stripping two Ministers of their portfolios just six months into the job shows Christopher Luxon’s management style is lacking, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins said. ...
Tonight’s court decision to overturn the summons of the Children’s Minister has enabled the Crown to continue making decisions about Māori without evidence, says Te Pāti Māori spokesperson for Children, Mariameno Kapa-Kingi. “The judicial system has this evening told the nation that this government can do whatever they want when ...
It appears Nicola Willis is about to pull the rug out from under the feet of local communities still dealing with the aftermath of last year’s severe weather, and local councils relying on funding to build back from these disasters. ...
The Government is making short-sighted changes to the Resource Management Act (RMA) that will take away environmental protection in favour of short-term profits, Labour’s environment spokesperson Rachel Brooking said today. ...
Labour welcomes the release of the report into the North Island weather events and looks forward to working with the Government to ensure that New Zealand is as prepared as it can be for the next natural disaster. ...
The Labour Party has called for the New Zealand Government to recognise Palestine, as a material step towards progressing the two-State solution needed to achieve a lasting peace in the region. ...
Some of our country’s most important work, stopping the sexual exploitation of children and violent extremism could go along with staff on the frontline at ports and airports. ...
The Government’s Fast Track Approvals Bill will give projects such as new coal mines a ‘get out of jail free’ card to wreak havoc on the environment, Labour Leader Chris Hipkins said today. ...
The government's decision to reintroduce Three Strikes is a destructive and ineffective piece of law-making that will only exacerbate an inherently biased and racist criminal justice system, said Te Pāti Māori Justice Spokesperson, Tākuta Ferris, today. During the time Three Strikes was in place in Aotearoa, Māori and Pasifika received ...
Cuts to frontline hospital staff are not only a broken election promise, it shows the reckless tax cuts have well and truly hit the frontline of the health system, says Labour Health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall. ...
The Green Party has joined the call for public submissions on the fast-track legislation to be extended after the Ombudsman forced the Government to release the list of organisations invited to apply just hours before submissions close. ...
New Zealand’s good work at reducing climate emissions for three years in a row will be undone by the National government’s lack of ambition and scrapping programmes that were making a difference, Labour Party climate spokesperson Megan Woods said today. ...
More essential jobs could be on the chopping block, this time Ministry of Education staff on the school lunches team are set to find out whether they're in line to lose their jobs. ...
Te Pāti Māori is disgusted at the confirmation that hundreds are set to lose their jobs at Oranga Tamariki, and the disestablishment of the Treaty Response Unit. “This act of absolute carelessness and out of touch decision making is committing tamariki to state abuse.” Said Te Pāti Māori Oranga Tamariki ...
The Government is trying to bring in a law that will allow Ministers to cut corners and kill off native species, Labour environment spokesperson Rachel Brooking said. ...
Cancelling urgently needed new Cook Strait ferries and hiking the cost of public transport for many Kiwis so that National can announce the prospect of another tunnel for Wellington is not making good choices, Labour Transport Spokesperson Tangi Utikere said. ...
A laundry list of additional costs for Tāmaki Makarau Auckland shows the Minister for the city is not delivering for the people who live there, says Labour Auckland Issues spokesperson Shanan Halbert. ...
Te Pāti Māori co-leader Rawiri Waititi, and Mema Paremata mō Tāmaki-Makaurau, Takutai Tarsh Kemp, will travel to the Gold Coast to strengthen ties with Māori in Australia next week (15-21 April). The visit, in the lead-up to the 9th Australian National Kapa haka Festival, will be an opportunity for both ...
The Green Party has today launched a step-by-step guide to help New Zealanders make their voice heard on the Government’s democracy dodging and anti-environment fast track legislation. ...
The National Government’s proposed changes to the Residential Tenancies Act will mean tenants can be turfed from their homes by landlords with little notice, Labour housing spokesperson Kieran McAnulty said. ...
Green Party co-leader Marama Davidson is calling on all parties to support a common-sense change that’s great for the planet and great for consumers after her member’s bill was drawn from the ballot today. ...
A significant milestone has been reached in the fight to strike an anti-Pasifika and unfair law from the country’s books after Teanau Tuiono’s members’ bill passed its first reading. ...
New Zealand has today missed the opportunity to uphold the right to a clean, healthy, and sustainable environment, says James Shaw after his member’s bill was voted down in its first reading. ...
Today’s advice from the Climate Change Commission paints a sobering reality of the challenge we face in combating climate change, especially in light of recent Government policy announcements. ...
Minister for Disability Issues Penny Simmonds appears to have delayed a report back to Cabinet on the progress New Zealand is making against international obligations for disabled New Zealanders. ...
Distinguished guests - It is an honour to return once again to this site which, as the resting place for so many of our war-dead, has become a sacred place for generations of New Zealanders. Our presence here and at the other special spaces of Gallipoli is made ...
Mai ia tawhiti pamamao, te moana nui a Kiwa, kua tae whakaiti mai matou, ki to koutou papa whenua. No koutou te tapuwae, no matou te tapuwae, kua honoa pumautia. Ko nga toa kua hinga nei, o te Waipounamu, o te Ika a Maui, he okioki tahi me o ...
Paul Goldsmith will take on responsibility for the Media and Communications portfolio, while Louise Upston will pick up the Disability Issues portfolio, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon announced today. “Our Government is relentlessly focused on getting New Zealand back on track. As issues change in prominence, I plan to adjust Ministerial ...
Recreational catch limits will be reduced in areas of Fiordland and the Chatham Islands to help keep those fisheries healthy and sustainable, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. The lower recreational daily catch limits for a range of finfish and shellfish species caught in the Fiordland Marine Area and ...
Energy Minister Simeon Brown has welcomed an important milestone in New Zealand’s hydrogen future, with the opening of the country’s first network of hydrogen refuelling stations in Wiri. “I want to congratulate the team at Hiringa Energy and its partners K one W one (K1W1), Mitsui & Co New Zealand ...
The coalition Government is delivering on its commitment to improve resource management laws and give greater certainty to consent applicants, with a Bill to amend the Resource Management Act (RMA) expected to be introduced to Parliament next month. RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop has today outlined the first RMA Amendment ...
Overseas models for regulating the oil and gas sector, including their decommissioning regimes, are being carefully scrutinised as a potential template for New Zealand’s own sector, Resources Minister Shane Jones says. The Coalition Government is focused on rebuilding investor confidence in New Zealand’s energy sector as it looks to strengthen ...
Emergency Management and Recovery Minister Mark Mitchell has today released the Report of the Government Inquiry into the response to the North Island Severe Weather Events. “The report shows that New Zealand’s emergency management system is not fit-for-purpose and there are some significant gaps we need to address,” Mr Mitchell ...
Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith is today travelling to Europe where he’ll update the United Nations Human Rights Council on the Government’s work to restore law and order. “Attending the Universal Periodic Review in Geneva provides us with an opportunity to present New Zealand’s human rights progress, priorities, and challenges, while ...
Associate Agriculture Minister, Mark Patterson, formally reopened the world’s largest wool processing facility today in Awatoto, Napier, following a $50 million rebuild and refurbishment project. “The reopening of this facility will significantly lift the economic opportunities available to New Zealand’s wool sector, which already accounts for 20 per cent of ...
Hon Andrew Bayly, Minister for Small Business and Manufacturing At the Southland Otago Regional Engineering Collective (SOREC) Summit, 18 April, Dunedin Ngā mihi nui, Ko Andrew Bayly aho, Ko Whanganui aho Good Afternoon and thank you for inviting me to open your summit today. I am delighted ...
The Government is delivering on its commitment to bring back the Three Strikes legislation, Associate Justice Minister Nicole McKee announced today. “Our Government is committed to restoring law and order and enforcing appropriate consequences on criminals. We are making it clear that repeat serious violent or sexual offending is not ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters has today announced four new diplomatic appointments for New Zealand’s overseas missions. “Our diplomats have a vital role in maintaining and protecting New Zealand’s interests around the world,” Mr Peters says. “I am pleased to announce the appointment of these senior diplomats from the ...
New Zealand is contributing NZ$7 million to support communities affected by severe food insecurity and other urgent humanitarian needs in Ethiopia and Somalia, Foreign Minister Rt Hon Winston Peters announced today. “Over 21 million people are in need of humanitarian assistance across Ethiopia, with a further 6.9 million people ...
Minister for Arts, Culture and Heritage Paul Goldsmith is congratulating Mataaho Collective for winning the Golden Lion for best participant in the main exhibition at the Venice Biennale. "Congratulations to the Mataaho Collective for winning one of the world's most prestigious art prizes at the Venice Biennale. “It is good ...
The Government is reforming financial services to improve access to home loans and other lending, and strengthen customer protections, Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly and Housing Minister Chris Bishop announced today. “Our coalition Government is committed to rebuilding the economy and making life simpler by cutting red tape. We are ...
“China remains a strong commercial opportunity for Kiwi exporters as Chinese businesses and consumers continue to value our high-quality safe produce,” Trade and Agriculture Minister Todd McClay says. Mr McClay has returned to New Zealand following visits to Beijing, Harbin and Shanghai where he met ministers, governors and mayors and engaged in trade and agricultural events with the New ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has completed a successful trip to Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines, deepening relationships and capitalising on opportunities. Mr Luxon was accompanied by a business delegation and says the choice of countries represents the priority the New Zealand Government places on South East Asia, and our relationships in ...
New Zealand is demonstrating its commitment to reducing global greenhouse emissions, and supporting clean energy transition in South East Asia, through a contribution of NZ$41 million (US$25 million) in climate finance to the Asian Development Bank (ADB)-led Energy Transition Mechanism (ETM). Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Climate Change Minister Simon Watts announced ...
The Government is today releasing a list of organisations who received letters about the Fast-track applications process, says RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop. “Recently Ministers and agencies have received a series of OIA requests for a list of organisations to whom I wrote with information on applying to have a ...
Attorney-General Judith Collins today announced the appointment of Wellington Barrister David Jonathan Boldt as a Judge of the High Court, and the Honourable Justice Matthew Palmer as a Judge of the Court of Appeal. Justice Boldt graduated with an LLB from Victoria University of Wellington in 1990, and also holds ...
Education Minister Erica Stanford will lead the New Zealand delegation at the 2024 International Summit on the Teaching Profession (ISTP) held in Singapore. The delegation includes representatives from the Post Primary Teachers’ Association (PPTA) Te Wehengarua and the New Zealand Educational Institute (NZEI) Te Riu Roa. The summit is co-hosted ...
A stopbank upgrade project in Tairawhiti partly funded by the Government has increased flood resilience for around 7000ha of residential and horticultural land so far, Regional Development Minister Shane Jones says. Mr Jones today attended a dawn service in Gisborne to mark the end of the first stage of the ...
Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters will represent the Government at Anzac Day commemorations on the Gallipoli Peninsula next week and engage with senior representatives of the Turkish government in Istanbul. “The Gallipoli campaign is a defining event in our history. It will be a privilege to share the occasion ...
Science, Innovation and Technology and Defence Minister Judith Collins will next week attend the OECD Science and Technology Ministerial conference in Paris and Anzac Day commemorations in Belgium. “Science, innovation and technology have a major role to play in rebuilding our economy and achieving better health, environmental and social outcomes ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon held a bilateral meeting today with the President of the Philippines, Ferdinand Marcos Jr. The Prime Minister was accompanied by MP Paulo Garcia, the first Filipino to be elected to a legislature outside the Philippines. During today’s meeting, Prime Minister Luxon and President Marcos Jr discussed opportunities to ...
The Government has announced that $20 million in funding will be made available to Westport to fund much needed flood protection around the town. This measure will significantly improve the resilience of the community, says Local Government Minister Simeon Brown. “The Westport community has already been allocated almost $3 million ...
The Government is proud to support the first ever Repco Supercars Championship event in Taupō as up to 70,000 motorsport fans attend the Taupō International Motorsport Park this weekend, says Economic Development Minister Melissa Lee. “Anticipation for the ITM Taupō Super400 is huge, with tickets and accommodation selling out weeks ...
Local Government Minister Simeon Brown has announced an increase to the Rates Rebate Scheme, putting money back into the pockets of low-income homeowners. “The coalition Government is committed to bringing down the cost of living for New Zealanders. That includes targeted support for those Kiwis who are doing things tough, such ...
The Coalition Government is investing in a project to boost survival rates of New Zealand mussels and grow the industry, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones has announced. “This project seeks to increase the resilience of our mussels and significantly boost the sector’s productivity,” Mr Jones says. “The project - ...
Benefit figures released today underscore the importance of the Government’s plan to rebuild the economy and have 50,000 fewer people on Jobseeker Support, Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston says. “Benefit numbers are still significantly higher than when National was last in government, when there was about 70,000 fewer ...
The Government’s commitment to doubling New Zealand’s renewable energy capacity is backed by new data showing that clean energy has helped the country reach its lowest annual gross emissions since 1999, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts says. New Zealand’s latest Greenhouse Gas Inventory (1990-2022) published today, shows gross emissions fell ...
The Government is bringing the earthquake-prone building review forward, with work to start immediately, and extending the deadline for remediations by four years, Building and Construction Minister Chris Penk says. “Our Government is focused on rebuilding the economy. A key part of our plan is to cut red tape that ...
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and his Thai counterpart, Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, have today agreed that New Zealand and the Kingdom of Thailand will upgrade the bilateral relationship to a Strategic Partnership by 2026. “New Zealand and Thailand have a lot to offer each other. We have a strong mutual desire to build ...
RMA Reform Minister Chris Bishop and Transport Minister Simeon Brown have today announced the Coalition Government’s intention to extend port coastal permits for a further 20 years, providing port operators with certainty to continue their operations. “The introduction of the Resource Management Act in 1991 required ports to obtain coastal ...
Today’s announcement that inflation is down to 4 per cent is encouraging news for Kiwis, but there is more work to be done - underlining the importance of the Government’s plan to get the economy back on track, acting Finance Minister Chris Bishop says. “Inflation is now at 4 per ...
Refreshed health guidance released today will help parents and schools make informed decisions about whether their child needs to be in school, addressing one of the key issues affecting school attendance, says Associate Education Minister David Seymour. In recent years, consistently across all school terms, short-term illness or medical reasons ...
Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones is streamlining high-level oceans management while maintaining a focus on supporting the sector’s role in the export-led recovery of the economy. “I am working to realise the untapped potential of our fishing and aquaculture sector. To achieve that we need to be smarter with ...
I was initially resistant to the idea often suggested to me that the Government should deliver an arts strategy. The whole point of the arts and creativity is that people should do whatever the hell they want, unbound by the dictates of politicians in Wellington. Peter Jackson, Kiri Te Kanawa, Eleanor ...
Associate Agriculture Minister Mark Patterson is speaking at the International Wool Textile Organisation Congress in Adelaide, promoting New Zealand wool, and outlining the coalition Government’s support for the revitalisation the sector. "New Zealand’s wool exports reached $400 million in the year to 30 June 2023, and the coalition Government ...
The Commissioner's decision validates the longstanding efforts of the local community and ensures that Awataha Marae will be managed to serve the needs of the local community, particularly for hosting tangihanga. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Tristan Salles, Associate professor, University of Sydney Examples of Australian landscapes.Unsplash Seventy thousand years ago, the sea level was much lower than today. Australia, along with New Guinea and Tasmania, formed a connected landmass known as Sahul. Around this time – ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Felicity Castagna, Lecturer, Creative Writing, Western Sydney University Day Day Market, ParramattaPhoto: Garry Trinh I live on the edge of Parramatta, Australia’s fastest-growing city, on the kind of old-fashioned suburban street that has 1950s fibros constructed in the post-war housing boom, ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michael Ryan, Teaching Fellow in Economics, University of Waikato GettyImagesfatido/Getty Images There is an ongoing global debate over whether the high inflation seen in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic can be lowered without a recession. New Zealand is not ...
The ‘Wicked Game’ heartthrob is in his late 60s now. That didn’t stop him putting on a lively, goofy and very sparkly show. Apart from ‘Wicked Game’, which graces a sultry playlist of mine simply called 💋, my last sustained Chris Isaak listening session took place when I was about ...
Analysis - Two ministers were stripped of portfolios in a warning to Cabinet, drama broke out at the Waitangi Tribunal, and the gang patch ban bill ran into opposition. ...
Tara Ward makes an impassioned plea for some vital pop culture merch. In April 1999, I became obsessed with a new reality television show called Popstars. Every Tuesday night, five strangers transformed into music royalty before my very eyes as Joe, Keri, Carly, Erika and Megan were chosen to form ...
PNG Post-Courier In the early hours of ANZAC Day, aerial photographs captured an impressive gathering of Australians and Papua New Guineans at Isurava in the Northern (Oro) Province. The solemn dawn service yesterday was held at a site steeped in history, where some of the fiercest battles of World War ...
The PSA is shocked that Oranga Tamariki has used the cost cutting drive to downgrade its commitment to Te Ao Māori and remove many specialist Māori roles. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Ian Kemish, Adjunct Professor, School of Historical and Philosophical Inquiry, The University of Queensland There can be no more powerful symbol of the relationship between Australia and Papua New Guinea than the prime ministers of these neighbouring countries walking together on the ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Sharon Robinson, Distinguished Professor and Deputy Director of ARC Securing Antarctica’s Environmental Future (SAEF), University of Wollongong, University of Wollongong Andrew Netherwood Over the last 25 years, the ozone hole which forming over Antarctica each spring has started to shrink. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Viktoria Kahui, Senior Lecturer in Environmental Economics, University of Otago Getty Images/Amy Toensing Biodiversity is declining at rates unprecedented in human history. This suggests the ways we currently use to manage our natural environment are failing. One emerging concept focuses on ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Timothy Colin Bednall, Associate Professor in Management, Swinburne University of Technology marvent/Shutterstock Finding the best person to fill a position can be tough, from drafting a job ad to producing a shortlist of top interview candidates. Employers typically consider information from ...
Wondering where to host your next BYO? Whether its a small gathering or a massive party, we’ve got some recommendations. I was first introduced to the concept of BYOs at Dunedin’s India Gardens, a legendary but sadly defunct establishment, which purveyed enormous quantities of mango chicken to Aotearoa’s drunkest future ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Julien Cooper, Honorary Lecturer, Department of History and Archaeology, Macquarie University Julien Cooper The hyper-arid desert of Eastern Sudan, the Atbai Desert, seems like an unlikely place to find evidence of ancient cattle herders. But in this dry environment, my new ...
The sector says it’s hopeful her replacement Paul Goldsmith will be able to throw it a lifeline, after six months with a minister deemed missing in action, writes Catherine McGregor in this excerpt from The Bulletin, The Spinoff’s morning news round-up. To receive The Bulletin in full each weekday, sign ...
The government can't just rely on axing public sector jobs and has to do more to cut spending, says the chief economist at a free market think tank. ...
Rock The Vote NZ, known for its advocacy for minor party unity and its role within the Freedoms NZ Coalition during the 2023 General Election, celebrates this merger as a strategic enhancement of its operational strength and outreach. ...
Nearly everyone has experienced the frustration of something you use breaking and being difficult or expensive to fix. Proposed legislation could change that. It’s been raining on and off all Sunday afternoon but people are lining up outside a building in a corner of Gribblehirst Park in Sandringham, Auckland. In ...
What does a forever relationship look like when you don’t believe in marriage? And how do you celebrate it? This essay is part of our Sunday Essay series, made possible thanks to the support of Creative New Zealand.I’m going to do it, right now. I’m going to say ...
The Prime Minister has committed to resuming direct flights to Thailand. But it’s not a promise he will be able to deliver on anytime soon. The post Prime Minister jumps the gun in Thailand appeared first on Newsroom. ...
It’s not that long ago Eliza McCartney was seriously wondering if the Paris Olympics would be her pole vaulting swansong. After years of being hounded by injury after injury, the Rio Olympics bronze medallist was still confident she would compete at her second Olympics in Paris in July, unless something ...
FICTION 1 Take Two by Danielle Hawkins (Allen & Unwin, $36.99) There’s commercial fiction, like this book, and then there’s quality fiction, quality writers, quality literature; the forthcoming Auckland Writers Festival is full of quality, and ReadingRoom has two tickets to give away to the following events: Paul Lynch (Dublin ...
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You can’t have missed the Gallipoli story as the movies, documentaries, essays and books capture what it was like for New Zealand troops in their eight-month campaign on the Peninsula. But this Anzac Day the Auckland War Memorial Museum has published a book that sheds light on a little-known aspect of the ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra In the free-for-all between the Australian government and Big Tech boss Elon Musk this week, the government had to be on a winner. Most people would have little sympathy with Musk’s vociferous opposition to ...
Asia Pacific Report Chief Mandla Mandela, a member of the National Assembly of South Africa and Nelson Mandela’s grandson, has joined the Freedom Flotilla in istanbul as the ships prepare to sail for Gaza, reports Kia Ora Gaza. Mandela is also the ambassador for the Global Campaign to Return to ...
Pacific Media Watch Journalists who report on environmental issues are encountering growing difficulties in many parts of the world, reports Reporters Without Borders. According to the tally kept by RSF, 200 journalists have been subjected to threats and physical violence, including murder, in the past 10 years because they were ...
Analysis by Dr Bryce Edwards, Democracy Project (https://democracyproject.nz)Political scientist, Dr Bryce Edwards. Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has surprised everyone with his ruthlessness in sacking two of his ministers from their crucial portfolios. Removing ministers for poor performance after only five months in the job just doesn’t normally happen in ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Hawkins, Senior Lecturer, Canberra School of Politics, Economics and Society, University of Canberra BagzhanSadvakassov/Upsplash, CC BY-SA Australia’s inflation rate has fallen for the fifth successive quarter, and it’s now less than half of what it was back in late 2022. ...
ACT's Rural Communities and Veterans spokesman Mark Cameron responds to cancellations and protests of ANZAC Day commemorations in Wellington. He says, "These pitiful attempts to detract from ANZAC Day are not at all indicative of the feelings of mainstream ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Meighen McCrae, Associate Professor of Strategic & Defence Studies, Australian National University American and Australian stretcher bearers working together near the front line during the Battle of Hamel in 1918.Australian War Memorial While the AUKUS alliance is new, the Australian-American partnership ...
Pōneke based peace activists staged a silent protest at the ANZAC day service to highlight New Zealand’s complicity in war and genocide, and urge the government to take concrete steps to stop the genocide in Palestine. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Magdalena M.E. Bunbury, Postdoctoral Researcher, James Cook University Burial with a horse at the Rákóczifalva site, Hungary (8th century AD).Sándor Hegedűs, Hungarian National Museum, CC BY How do we understand past societies? For centuries, our main sources of information have been ...
Amanda Thompson doesn’t really do Anzac Day. But what she does do is remember the people she knew who had a lifetime to remember stuff they didn’t really want to, because of a war they didn’t ask for. And she does make Anzac biscuits.First published in 2021.All my ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kathryn Willis, Postdoctoral Researcher, CSIRO Xavier Boulenger/Shutterstock In the two decades to 2019, global plastic production doubled. By 2040, plastic manufacturing and processing could consume as much as 20% of global oil production and use up 15% of the annual carbon ...
With our collective remembrance, and steadfast belief in our common humanity, we strengthen our hope and resolve to do what we can to foster dialogue and understanding, and to heal divisions in our pursuit of peace. ...
Principal reasons for the opposition is the loss of the public’s democratic right to have “a fair say” and the vital need for a government free from corruption, said Casey Cravens of Dunedin, president of the New Zealand Federation of Freshwater ...
Never mind the scoreboard – in the 2000 Bledisloe Cup decider, the real trans-Tasman battle was won before kickoff.First published in 2016. The dawn of the new millennium was a dark time for the All Blacks. Their final game pre-Y2K was a 22-18 loss to South Africa in the ...
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One great protest song. Thank you Mr Finn. Well done Miley and Ariana.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9LiI6poe3QE&ab_channel=BBCMusic
While we’re chucking out knighthoods I think the Finn brothers should share one. Half Sir Neil and Half Sir Tim, I think they’d dig that.
Tim didn’t write it, wasn’t in crowded house till 3rd release woodface.
The latest 1 News-Colmar Brunton poll:
National 49% (up from 46)
Labour 30% (no change)
Greens 9% (down from 11)
NZ First 9% (up from 8)
Maori Party 1% (down from 4)
ACT 1% (no change)
TOP 1% (up from 0)
Undecided 12%
Refused to answer 4%
Field work conducted 27-31 May.
Preferred Prime Minister:
Bill English 29% (up from 26)
Andrew Little 8% (up from 7)
Winston Peters 7% (down from 9)
Jacinda Ardern 6%
Rogue.
About this time (about 3 months out) in the last election and the election before I seem to remember that CM was bouncing up in the mid-50s. Someone who keeps track of the polls might provide a comparison.
I wonder if :-
1. They have changed their methodology.
or
2. The public demand for this arrogant pack of the self-entitled is a lot lower this election around.
After all National and their coalition dummies regularly got more than 60% in the last couple of elections from CM polls at 3 months out. Then slid down to just getting a couple of MPs above the majority.
BTW: I consider that the only time that CM are remotely accurate is in the week before the election when they curiously move National down to something close to the end result.
I recall someone mentioning a ‘budget bounce’. Or tea leaves. No, wait, it was chicken livers.
2014 Colmar Brunton polls for National:
22–26 March 2014 – 47%
17–21 May 2014 – 51%
21–25 June 2014 – 50%
19–23 July 2014 – 52%
9–13 August 2014 – 50%
23–27 August 2014 – 48%
30 August – 3 September 2014 – 50%
13–17 September 2014 – 45%
Election result: 47.04%
Labour:
22–26 March 2014 – 31%
17–21 May 2014 – 30%
21–25 June 2014 – 29%
19–23 July 2014 – 28%
9–13 August 2014 – 26%
23–27 August 2014 – 28%
30 August – 3 September 2014 – 25%
13–17 September 2014 – 25%
Election result: 25.13%
Labour won’t want to follow a similar pattern.
Colmar was a bit generous to labour in 2014. Hopefully they have better methods in 2017 or this is bad news
Or your horoscope is more reliable than the result of a single opinion poll.
Maybe. I am getting tired of the she’ll be right attitude that many seem to be infected with which can be seen with those who dismiss the polls and assume we will just win.
These polls are real.
I don’t assume we’ll just win. Or rather, I assume if we do win it will be “only just”.
I also don’t assume we will win, but I think the whole polling thing is misleading and prescriptive.
Although I’m sure it’s working well for Corbyn right now.
The July one is probably about the closest for the relative time of the election. This coming election is about 60 days earlier.
19–23 July 2014 – 52% cf 49% National
19–23 July 2014 – 28% cf 30% Labour
Roughly a 5% swing. Plus of course you have to consider the other parties. Because there hasn’t been a non-coalition government possible in NZ since 1993.
The coalition situation is quite different to 2014.
National doesn’t appear to have gained anything from the demise of the Conservative vote. That means that they are still significantly diminished compared to last election because they are the natural home for that vote.
Act and UF are essentially still defunct unless National want to waste votes on them again. The MP is probably going to drop down below 1 MP vote in the part stakes and even with the inherent sitting MP conservatism of the Maori electorates, Flavell may have reelection issues. Hard to see how National would get to a majority with their usual gaggle of desiccated past parties.
Meanwhile the Greens and NZ First are still polling well.
TOP? Unlikely to make a good run and their policies are even worse for National than NZF’s are. I rather suspect that National would have problems with either party, and the MPs from those parties would face a revolt of their parties if they go into coalition with National.
And above all it is unlikely to have anything like a Internet-Mana or Dotcom to distract, divert and disgust this time.
What we are in now is a 4 horse race – not a 2 horse….. And incidentally, why do so many conservatives STILL keep thinking that it is a goddamn two headed race. Nostalgic wishful longing for the 197s and 1980s still?
No the 2014 election was Saturday 20 September.
I agree the coalition situation is very different, the whole situation is quite different. No Conservatives (of any significance) or Dotcom, and TOP is quite different. No Key, No Cunliffe, no Norman.
Hey Pete just checking. Have you ever posted an opinion poll when there was a significant bounce for the left?
Has anyone?
I post all of the New Zealand political opinion polls. They go either way.
he meant on TS.
I think he can speak for himself.
I post results here if no one has already done it – significant bounces to the left tend to be fairly quickly posted here so less need for me to do it.
I simply posted the Colmar results here without comment because I knew it would be of some interest. You have diverted from the actual topic a tad.
I was wondering that too micky, and whether he posted the left bouncing ones at Farrar’s blog and what happens if he does.
More unsubstantiated ‘wondering’.
I rarely post anything at Kiwiblog these days. If I posted poll results there it would be more likely to be a swing against National to ‘encourage discussion’.
This is the stat to keep an eye on;
Undecided 12%
Refused to answer 4%
That is a whooping 16% of the vote. This must be concerning to 3rd term regime seeking a 4th term.
Maori party down to a one trick pony on this slump if they get back at all? Peter Dunne he is toast, a gone burger.
The little twerp from Epsom has no pulling power and would do better by replacing him with Jordan Williams as leader.
NZ First will rise when Jones comes out of the closet.
Cat killer needs to be neutered 1% at this point in time signals 2.5 % so by not liking his posts and ripping TOP to bits when the puss puts his boot in his mouth is advisable.
I’ve been trying to decide whether to write posts about TOP’s shortcomings or just stay away from the topic entirely.
Didn’t Peters rule out Jones the other day?
I think most polls have a group of undecided/RTA.
I wouldn’t get to excited about these folks as if they can’t be bothered to answer a question on the phone I’d be surprised if they have the energy to toddle off to the voting booth on election day.
Labour are leaving their run to 40% a bit late arnt they ?
MMP. I wish all you blowhards would understand it. When the Greens get 10-15% Labour has to get 35-30% to pretty well finish it.
The blowhard who said they wanted to get labour to 40% was the Labour Party president.
https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/labour-sets-target-40-per-cent-party-vote
Heh – Priceless
so? Does it matter what they get if they can form govt? I’m sure you can understand the difference between setting a goal and still having a good outcome even if one doesn’t reach it.
At the moment labour are heading towards achieving neither.
Yawn.
… Latest One News-Colmar Brunton …… Previous CB
Nat + Maori + ACT …… 51% ….. …… ….……. … 51%
Lab + Green + NZF ….. 48% … …… …..………. . 49%
Still …… not a great Poll for ze Left
Of course if nzf come with the nats …..
One doth hear on the grapevine that Winnie only likely to head Lab’s way at next Election if – at a minimum – Lab+Green = Nat’s Party Vote
Only a possibility mind – not necessarily cast in stone
Dude getting mocked on twitter for claiming that NZ is ungrateful given that the US has been protecting us and given us our freedom (reference throwing water-filled condoms at an effigy of Tillerson),
https://twitter.com/7kidchaos/status/871976264562872320
Be grateful you are not speaking Japanese or German
What???
The Russians beat the Germans, not us.
The USA came into World War 2 only on the end of a well-placed Japanese boot.
Don’t give us that old simplistic drivel about how the Americans selflessly saved us: they were fighting for themselves, and we were damned lucky that our interests co-incided.
The Russians had a lot of help from the USA in terms of equipment…sure the Russians spilled the blood, but with out aid from the USA it may have been different.
You last paragraph is nonsense…without the USA, NZ and Australia would have been in a tonne of trouble.
Bollocks – in the well-schooled Western propaganda-influenced, you think that the minimal stuff the West shipped through to Murmansk made a difference? Rubbish. The tanks we sent were feeble, little competition for the superior German Panzer 4s, let alone the Tigers.
Russia had moved all of its important military production industry East of the Urals. The war-winning tank (the T-34) was produced there, in huge numbers. Along with good aircraft that defeated the Luftwaffe. We don’t hear about this.
80% of Hitler’s war effort went into the East, the Russians took the major impact, and did the major work. All our heroic efforts were against only 20% of Germany’s war effort.
NZ and Australia were defended by the USA because it was in the USA’s interest not to lose those areas to the Japanese. Sorry – that makes perfect sense. Had the USA not needed our countries unoccupied by the Japanese, things could well have been much different.
In Vino – you are a cock.
You dont think the 3000 liberty ships made a difference to the European war effort? or the half million US troops that died?
Not enough to change the course of the war. Without them Russia would still have crushed Germany.
That was a forgone conclusion from the time that Germany invaded Russia.
I recall a quote from Churchill saying when Germany invaded Russia, that was the moment he knew the Allies would win the war.
Have a wee look at the southern eastern front, and one battle – the Crimean Offensive – David C. Look at the cost of that one battle on the Russians and the Germans. It’s bloody terrifying the loss of human life on both sides. When you consider it’s faught in a area smaller than Otago, and the battle lasted less than a month.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_Offensive
I’d recommend this book as well.”Lost Victories: The War Memoirs of Hitler’s Most Brilliant General”
by Erich von Manstein
Brutally honest about the Soviet war machine, and how it wrecked the German Army. Plus, he was one of the best Generals in WW2 who we never hear about, I’m glad he got shafted by Hitler, we all should be.
Very true on equipment the Churchil III was a waste of space, nice armor but a useless gun. The Valentine (2 From memory) was a good tank, but very few made it into Russia in working order. The Matilda (sorry canny remember the make off the top of my head) was another OK tank, but again lacked a decent gun so the Russians used it in a support role. Most of the USA tanks could not handle the cold. M4 was a great tank, but would seize up in freezing temps – which was good for the USA to learn come the invasion of Europe post D-Day planing.
As for aircraft, all of the British aircraft suffered in the cold and we under powered. As for Artillary, this was welcomed by the Russians, as it was solid, but they did not get much. The best thing about the aid to Russia was the psychological effect. The feeling for the Russia’s that they were not alone.
As for us and the Aussies being stuffed without the yanks. Silly question Chucky do you know who was the first army to beat, and turn back a major Japaneses invasion force? I’ll give you a hint, it happened in Papua New Guinea. It opened up the door for a couple of major naval victories, and meant that the marines didn’t get wasted at Guadalcanal.
I’m not denying the Yanks did a good job, they did. I think you under estimate what us and the Aussies did.
Did you know that some of the best fighter planes in WWII were Russian?
The best tanks were:
From the same article comes the vital point though:
The US could have kept out of the European front and the Germans would have been crushed by the Russians.
His last paragraph makes perfect sense. You attacking him by restating his position doesn’t.
The United Nations defeated the Axis, actually. So the UN (the “Allies”) fought together against Germany – the USSR couldn’t have destroyed Army Group Centre without US rations, avgas, trucks, jeeps and radios for example. And the Germans would have had a lot stronger defenses in the East if the 22,000 heavy anti-aircraft guns they had defending the Reich could have been used there.
The Americans were literally shooting down the entire Luftwaffe fighter strength every 3 months at one stage in early 1944 as the German fighters desperately tried to stop the bombers flattening their cities. Basically the Red Air Force had no opposition because the Anglo-Americans shot them all down.
There was a “second front” against Germany – in the air – long before D-Day.
However, it was the Americans alone who beat the Japanese.
Much of what you say is true, but I think I remember reading that the Luftwaffe lost just as heavily in the East before the Mustang fighter arrived to do the coup de grace in the West. 1944 is very late in the war, and the Russians were well in control by then
The fact remains that 80% of Germany’s war effort went into the East. Saying that we rescued Russia (as you imply) by forcing the Germans to keep a few resources in the west hardly convinces.
Off topic, but this “effort” thing is a really, really interesting subject to a history fan like me. By 1943, the war in the East had largely degenerated into a WW1 style slogging match between two huge armies of militia with motorised formations only common in decisive zones. The Germans looked good only because often the Soviets were worse (at Anzio the Allies were astonished at the inflexible infantry tactics and poor artillery co-ordination of the “good” German divisions transferred from the East).
Now, if you measure effort as a simple mathematical equation – 200 divisions in the east, 40 in the West, therefore 80% of the effort was in the east – then you are right. But since 1914 numbers have only told (an increasingly less important) part of the story. Modern weapons means concentrating more men at the point of attack simply increases losses.
The Germans themselves were aware of the technology and tactical flexibility gap between their average units and the western allies, whose entire armies were motorised and lavishly supplied with radios and support weapons. The German army in Normandy featured the cream of their armoured forces – ten full strength divisions including no less than five of the seven Waffen SS armoured divisions.
In a similar vein, although the Allied bomber offensive required relatively little manpower to defend against it consumed an outsized proportion of the output of the German high technology sector in radars, fire control systems, optics, large and sophisticated night and day fighters, and the highly skilled pilots and workforce needed to support that effort.
Since the 1980s there has been a revision of the impact the western allies had on the overall war situation. Without wanting to belittle the huge sacrifices of the USSR, technology had a major impact on the way the Western allies fought the war. For example, in the entire Stalingrad campaign the Soviets lost around 1.5 million to inflict 800,000 losses on the Axis. At the same time, the Western allies decisively defeated the Axis in North Africa, losing 240,000 (since 1941) to inflict 900,000 losses on the Axis.
Nope, the UN didn’t really exist until after the war. Prior to then it was the Allies.
[citation needed]
Please note, Russia has been a major producer of oil and oil products for decades.
I suspect that those AA guns would have had difficulty with the 84000 T34s.
Sounds more like Western propaganda than reality.
Sanctuary, the Russians were about to piss all over the Japs. The Yanks dropped the bomb to ‘warn’ the Russians.
Well, piss all over them in Manchuria, maybe, but the Russians weren’t getting ready to invade the home islands any time soon.
The best explanation I heard for the yanks nuking cities was that it never occurred to anyone to not drop the bomb: the army didn’t want to invade the home islands, the air force wanted to use it as the fulfillment of strategic bombing, the manhatten and b29 projects needed to be justified, and yes the diplomats had their eye on post-war negotiations.
The only ones who didn’t see a need for it were the submariners, who’d basically done Japan into the ground already.
Lots of self-centered reasons for individual groups supporting it, nobody really opposing it.
A long time ago for me to now quote a source, but I seem to remember an argument that once the Russians had invaded shoreline near Japan, they would be able to mount an invasion before the Americans could ever assemble the distant naval build-up they would need. What they took to Iwo Jima would not suffice…
So maybe there was a thought of warning off the Russians?
Interesting, looks like your recollection is correct. So it might have been an additional factor.
Must confess I’ve never really looked at the Russians in the pacific. Will have to do some catch-up 🙂
Soviet–Japanese War (1945)
yeah I knew they were transferring land forces and tooling through China and some of the smaller island groups, I just wasn’t aware they had the capacity to land (and protect the landing forces) thirty-odd divisions in the Pacific anywhere close to that time.
Bearing in mind that most of the US island-hopping was bad enough going when they routinely provided numerous destroyers, battleships and even aircraft carriers of different sizes to cover the landing ships, I hadn’t really picked that a large-scale soviet naval landing was even on the horizon.
In his exhortation to his troops on the eve of D-Day, Eisenhower referred to the ‘united nations’.
“But this is the year 1944. Much has happened since the Nazi triumphs of 1940-41. The United Nations have inflicted upon the Germans great defeats, in open battle, man-to-man.”
Eisenhower had a wider view of who defeated the Nazis than ‘America First’.
To Mac1
Eisenhower, like Churchill, had preferred to fight around peripheral areas, while their two biggest enemies (Nazi Germany and Communist Russia) slogged it out against each other. But then, the Russians started to be obvious winners. So Eisenhower and Churchill had to rush to invade Europe from the west, lest the Russians take over the whole lot.
Eisenhower knew bloody well who was defeating the Germans – the Russians. Why else did D-day come about?
To Sanctuary:
Umm, language?
“The Americans were literally shooting down the entire Luftwaffe fighter strength every 3 months at one stage in early 1944 as the German fighters desperately tried to stop the bombers flattening their cities.” Literally??
If they shot down the entire Luftwaffe fighter strength every 3 months, the German production rate must have been phenomenal.
Sounds bloody fishy to me. And maybe a little metaphorical rather than literal.
And how can ‘every 3 months’ be at only one stage in early 1944 – a period of 3 months at the most? For just how long did this ‘every 3 months’ period last?
Care to rephrase most of what you wrote?
C’mon IV. I have seen enough Hollywood war movies to know that the Americans saved the world in WW2
Oh darn, I had forgotten about them!
Yes, you must be right.
Underneath the stupid is a serious issue: how valuable is the five eyes relationship, and given Trump’s treachery, is a “four eyes” relationship worth pursuing?
Posted this earlier on Daily Review. But being a long Weekend got my dates wrong! ….Doesn’t do much for my credibility I know!, i.e., (Doesn’t know what day of the week it is…)
If appropriate thought it important enough to resubmit in today’s Review, given posts, and threads of late… And inspiration that Sarah gives!
And yesterdays threads/Posts can sometimes be Old News… sadly!
Anyhow… Now for someone with Guts…
“Law student Sarah Thomson has launched a judicial review of the New Zealand Government’s completely inadequate greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets.
Sarah Thomson and her lawyers now have a firm date for the hearing of her judicial review: It will be at the High Court, 2 Molesworth Street, Wellington, from 26-28 June, start time 10am.
Sarah is encouraging people to attend the hearing to show their support for the need for action on climate change. Do contribute to the important national conversation on climate change in any ways that you can.
Sarah explains her case and why she’s taking it: “….
http://coalaction.org.nz/news/stand-sarah-climate-high-court-wellington-26-28-june
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11862450
Poll was done straight after the Budget with all the Government spin and before the gaping holes were exposed. Commentators all expected a post cabinet bounce. Once there is a full manifesto released by Labour and nothing new from National the polls will inevitably close.
Speaking of a Labour manifesto…
There is a popular one in the UK.
I wonder if we could get a copy.
Hey mighty mod. The Daily Review date should be 7/6/17. You can’t get away with foisting July on us before we have had June. And I don’t want to miss out on the Brit election excitement in the moss pit.
Right you are, fixed. Mighty Mod – I like it! Maybe I should get a cape.
Nah. Haven’t you seen the incredibles? No capes for super her0s. They are too dangerous.
https://youtu.be/M68ndaZSKa8
Don’t you guys ever go to bed and get some shut-eye?
Yes. But I have also been known to get up when I can’t sleep and do some reading until I sleep.
I need to find another really interesting but boring book. I used to have one that was about the trading voyages to the ‘Dutch East Indies’ from the 16th century to the 19th. Usually I could manage about 10 pages before I dozed off.
The Radicalism of the American Revolution. Quite an interesting book that argues the US revolutionary war was the product of a hundred years of demographic change that fractured local hereditary power structures (e.g. looking at the changing percentage of settlements where the local mayor or magistrate was son or grandson of the previous mayor or magistrate). Much deeper than the usual myth that a bunch of folks suddenly decided to dump tea in a harbour because enlughtenment.
States a good case and really describes a fundamental demographic schism, but drier than a scorpion’s toilet paper. Unless you like tables of import/export duties.
Unless you like tables of import/export duties.
I love them. They will be like the lists of inventory and auction prices of goods shipped around the world when sail was the fastest method of travel. Incredibly interesting, boring as shit, slower than a snail sprinting, and an instant cure for sleeplessness.