National 49% (up from 46)
Labour 30% (no change)
Greens 9% (down from 11)
NZ First 9% (up from 8)
Maori Party 1% (down from 4)
ACT 1% (no change)
TOP 1% (up from 0)
Undecided 12%
Refused to answer 4%
Field work conducted 27-31 May.
Preferred Prime Minister:
Bill English 29% (up from 26)
Andrew Little 8% (up from 7)
Winston Peters 7% (down from 9)
Jacinda Ardern 6%
About this time (about 3 months out) in the last election and the election before I seem to remember that CM was bouncing up in the mid-50s. Someone who keeps track of the polls might provide a comparison.
I wonder if :-
1. They have changed their methodology.
or
2. The public demand for this arrogant pack of the self-entitled is a lot lower this election around.
After all National and their coalition dummies regularly got more than 60% in the last couple of elections from CM polls at 3 months out. Then slid down to just getting a couple of MPs above the majority.
BTW: I consider that the only time that CM are remotely accurate is in the week before the election when they curiously move National down to something close to the end result.
22–26 March 2014 – 47%
17–21 May 2014 – 51%
21–25 June 2014 – 50%
19–23 July 2014 – 52%
9–13 August 2014 – 50%
23–27 August 2014 – 48%
30 August – 3 September 2014 – 50%
13–17 September 2014 – 45%
Election result: 47.04%
Labour:
22–26 March 2014 – 31%
17–21 May 2014 – 30%
21–25 June 2014 – 29%
19–23 July 2014 – 28%
9–13 August 2014 – 26%
23–27 August 2014 – 28%
30 August – 3 September 2014 – 25%
13–17 September 2014 – 25%
Maybe. I am getting tired of the she’ll be right attitude that many seem to be infected with which can be seen with those who dismiss the polls and assume we will just win.
The July one is probably about the closest for the relative time of the election. This coming election is about 60 days earlier.
19–23 July 2014 – 52% cf 49% National
19–23 July 2014 – 28% cf 30% Labour
Roughly a 5% swing. Plus of course you have to consider the other parties. Because there hasn’t been a non-coalition government possible in NZ since 1993.
The coalition situation is quite different to 2014.
National doesn’t appear to have gained anything from the demise of the Conservative vote. That means that they are still significantly diminished compared to last election because they are the natural home for that vote.
Act and UF are essentially still defunct unless National want to waste votes on them again. The MP is probably going to drop down below 1 MP vote in the part stakes and even with the inherent sitting MP conservatism of the Maori electorates, Flavell may have reelection issues. Hard to see how National would get to a majority with their usual gaggle of desiccated past parties.
Meanwhile the Greens and NZ First are still polling well.
TOP? Unlikely to make a good run and their policies are even worse for National than NZF’s are. I rather suspect that National would have problems with either party, and the MPs from those parties would face a revolt of their parties if they go into coalition with National.
And above all it is unlikely to have anything like a Internet-Mana or Dotcom to distract, divert and disgust this time.
What we are in now is a 4 horse race – not a 2 horse….. And incidentally, why do so many conservatives STILL keep thinking that it is a goddamn two headed race. Nostalgic wishful longing for the 197s and 1980s still?
I agree the coalition situation is very different, the whole situation is quite different. No Conservatives (of any significance) or Dotcom, and TOP is quite different. No Key, No Cunliffe, no Norman.
I post results here if no one has already done it – significant bounces to the left tend to be fairly quickly posted here so less need for me to do it.
I simply posted the Colmar results here without comment because I knew it would be of some interest. You have diverted from the actual topic a tad.
I rarely post anything at Kiwiblog these days. If I posted poll results there it would be more likely to be a swing against National to ‘encourage discussion’.
That is a whooping 16% of the vote. This must be concerning to 3rd term regime seeking a 4th term.
Maori party down to a one trick pony on this slump if they get back at all? Peter Dunne he is toast, a gone burger.
The little twerp from Epsom has no pulling power and would do better by replacing him with Jordan Williams as leader.
NZ First will rise when Jones comes out of the closet.
Cat killer needs to be neutered 1% at this point in time signals 2.5 % so by not liking his posts and ripping TOP to bits when the puss puts his boot in his mouth is advisable.
I wouldn’t get to excited about these folks as if they can’t be bothered to answer a question on the phone I’d be surprised if they have the energy to toddle off to the voting booth on election day.
so? Does it matter what they get if they can form govt? I’m sure you can understand the difference between setting a goal and still having a good outcome even if one doesn’t reach it.
Dude getting mocked on twitter for claiming that NZ is ungrateful given that the US has been protecting us and given us our freedom (reference throwing water-filled condoms at an effigy of Tillerson),
New Zealand? And who provides its freedom and defense, I wonder. Odd way of saying Thank You.
The USA came into World War 2 only on the end of a well-placed Japanese boot.
Don’t give us that old simplistic drivel about how the Americans selflessly saved us: they were fighting for themselves, and we were damned lucky that our interests co-incided.
The Russians had a lot of help from the USA in terms of equipment…sure the Russians spilled the blood, but with out aid from the USA it may have been different.
You last paragraph is nonsense…without the USA, NZ and Australia would have been in a tonne of trouble.
Bollocks – in the well-schooled Western propaganda-influenced, you think that the minimal stuff the West shipped through to Murmansk made a difference? Rubbish. The tanks we sent were feeble, little competition for the superior German Panzer 4s, let alone the Tigers.
Russia had moved all of its important military production industry East of the Urals. The war-winning tank (the T-34) was produced there, in huge numbers. Along with good aircraft that defeated the Luftwaffe. We don’t hear about this.
80% of Hitler’s war effort went into the East, the Russians took the major impact, and did the major work. All our heroic efforts were against only 20% of Germany’s war effort.
NZ and Australia were defended by the USA because it was in the USA’s interest not to lose those areas to the Japanese. Sorry – that makes perfect sense. Had the USA not needed our countries unoccupied by the Japanese, things could well have been much different.
Have a wee look at the southern eastern front, and one battle – the Crimean Offensive – David C. Look at the cost of that one battle on the Russians and the Germans. It’s bloody terrifying the loss of human life on both sides. When you consider it’s faught in a area smaller than Otago, and the battle lasted less than a month.
I’d recommend this book as well.”Lost Victories: The War Memoirs of Hitler’s Most Brilliant General”
by Erich von Manstein
Brutally honest about the Soviet war machine, and how it wrecked the German Army. Plus, he was one of the best Generals in WW2 who we never hear about, I’m glad he got shafted by Hitler, we all should be.
Very true on equipment the Churchil III was a waste of space, nice armor but a useless gun. The Valentine (2 From memory) was a good tank, but very few made it into Russia in working order. The Matilda (sorry canny remember the make off the top of my head) was another OK tank, but again lacked a decent gun so the Russians used it in a support role. Most of the USA tanks could not handle the cold. M4 was a great tank, but would seize up in freezing temps – which was good for the USA to learn come the invasion of Europe post D-Day planing.
As for aircraft, all of the British aircraft suffered in the cold and we under powered. As for Artillary, this was welcomed by the Russians, as it was solid, but they did not get much. The best thing about the aid to Russia was the psychological effect. The feeling for the Russia’s that they were not alone.
As for us and the Aussies being stuffed without the yanks. Silly question Chucky do you know who was the first army to beat, and turn back a major Japaneses invasion force? I’ll give you a hint, it happened in Papua New Guinea. It opened up the door for a couple of major naval victories, and meant that the marines didn’t get wasted at Guadalcanal.
I’m not denying the Yanks did a good job, they did. I think you under estimate what us and the Aussies did.
The Russians had a lot of help from the USA in terms of equipment…sure the Russians spilled the blood, but with out aid from the USA it may have been different.
Did you know that some of the best fighter planes in WWII were Russian?
The final “best” air superiority fighter of the later period of the war in Europe was the Yakovlev Yak-3. Many top Soviet aces flew the Yak series of fighters, which started with the rather primitive Yak-1 and evolved into the Yak-3 air superiority and Yak-9 general purpose fighters. (See the article “The Yakovlev Yak-9” for more details about the latter model.) The Yak-9 was produced in greater numbers than any other Allied fighter of WW II, but it is the contemporary Yak-3 that was regarded as the best dogfighter on the ETO Eastern Front.
Some of Zaloga’s choices are less surprising. The only tank in “Armored Champions” to receive both the Tanker’s and Commander’s prize is the T-34 in 1941. Despite a two-man turret, its superior firepower, armor and mobility shocked the hitherto-invincible German panzers, as well as German infantry terrified to see their anti-tank guns bounce off the T-34’s thick skin.
From the same article comes the vital point though:
It is in 1943 that the contrast between technical capability and battlefield utility becomes most striking. Not surprisingly, the Tiger I is Tanker’s Choice because of its thick armor and powerful gun, which created “Tiger fright” among Allied troops. But Tigers were expensive, few in number (only 1,347 were built, compared to 84,000 T-34s) and hard to maintain. The depleted and desperate German infantry divisions on the Eastern Front needed armor support to stave off massed waves of T-34s, and a few battalions of overworked Tigers were not going to save them.
The US could have kept out of the European front and the Germans would have been crushed by the Russians.
You last paragraph is nonsense…without the USA, NZ and Australia would have been in a tonne of trouble.
His last paragraph makes perfect sense. You attacking him by restating his position doesn’t.
The United Nations defeated the Axis, actually. So the UN (the “Allies”) fought together against Germany – the USSR couldn’t have destroyed Army Group Centre without US rations, avgas, trucks, jeeps and radios for example. And the Germans would have had a lot stronger defenses in the East if the 22,000 heavy anti-aircraft guns they had defending the Reich could have been used there.
The Americans were literally shooting down the entire Luftwaffe fighter strength every 3 months at one stage in early 1944 as the German fighters desperately tried to stop the bombers flattening their cities. Basically the Red Air Force had no opposition because the Anglo-Americans shot them all down.
There was a “second front” against Germany – in the air – long before D-Day.
However, it was the Americans alone who beat the Japanese.
Much of what you say is true, but I think I remember reading that the Luftwaffe lost just as heavily in the East before the Mustang fighter arrived to do the coup de grace in the West. 1944 is very late in the war, and the Russians were well in control by then
The fact remains that 80% of Germany’s war effort went into the East. Saying that we rescued Russia (as you imply) by forcing the Germans to keep a few resources in the west hardly convinces.
Off topic, but this “effort” thing is a really, really interesting subject to a history fan like me. By 1943, the war in the East had largely degenerated into a WW1 style slogging match between two huge armies of militia with motorised formations only common in decisive zones. The Germans looked good only because often the Soviets were worse (at Anzio the Allies were astonished at the inflexible infantry tactics and poor artillery co-ordination of the “good” German divisions transferred from the East).
Now, if you measure effort as a simple mathematical equation – 200 divisions in the east, 40 in the West, therefore 80% of the effort was in the east – then you are right. But since 1914 numbers have only told (an increasingly less important) part of the story. Modern weapons means concentrating more men at the point of attack simply increases losses.
The Germans themselves were aware of the technology and tactical flexibility gap between their average units and the western allies, whose entire armies were motorised and lavishly supplied with radios and support weapons. The German army in Normandy featured the cream of their armoured forces – ten full strength divisions including no less than five of the seven Waffen SS armoured divisions.
In a similar vein, although the Allied bomber offensive required relatively little manpower to defend against it consumed an outsized proportion of the output of the German high technology sector in radars, fire control systems, optics, large and sophisticated night and day fighters, and the highly skilled pilots and workforce needed to support that effort.
Since the 1980s there has been a revision of the impact the western allies had on the overall war situation. Without wanting to belittle the huge sacrifices of the USSR, technology had a major impact on the way the Western allies fought the war. For example, in the entire Stalingrad campaign the Soviets lost around 1.5 million to inflict 800,000 losses on the Axis. At the same time, the Western allies decisively defeated the Axis in North Africa, losing 240,000 (since 1941) to inflict 900,000 losses on the Axis.
And the Germans would have had a lot stronger defenses in the East if the 22,000 heavy anti-aircraft guns they had defending the Reich could have been used there.
I suspect that those AA guns would have had difficulty with the 84000 T34s.
The Americans were literally shooting down the entire Luftwaffe fighter strength every 3 months at one stage in early 1944 as the German fighters desperately tried to stop the bombers flattening their cities. Basically the Red Air Force had no opposition because the Anglo-Americans shot them all down.
Well, piss all over them in Manchuria, maybe, but the Russians weren’t getting ready to invade the home islands any time soon.
The best explanation I heard for the yanks nuking cities was that it never occurred to anyone to not drop the bomb: the army didn’t want to invade the home islands, the air force wanted to use it as the fulfillment of strategic bombing, the manhatten and b29 projects needed to be justified, and yes the diplomats had their eye on post-war negotiations.
The only ones who didn’t see a need for it were the submariners, who’d basically done Japan into the ground already.
Lots of self-centered reasons for individual groups supporting it, nobody really opposing it.
A long time ago for me to now quote a source, but I seem to remember an argument that once the Russians had invaded shoreline near Japan, they would be able to mount an invasion before the Americans could ever assemble the distant naval build-up they would need. What they took to Iwo Jima would not suffice…
So maybe there was a thought of warning off the Russians?
yeah I knew they were transferring land forces and tooling through China and some of the smaller island groups, I just wasn’t aware they had the capacity to land (and protect the landing forces) thirty-odd divisions in the Pacific anywhere close to that time.
Bearing in mind that most of the US island-hopping was bad enough going when they routinely provided numerous destroyers, battleships and even aircraft carriers of different sizes to cover the landing ships, I hadn’t really picked that a large-scale soviet naval landing was even on the horizon.
In his exhortation to his troops on the eve of D-Day, Eisenhower referred to the ‘united nations’.
“But this is the year 1944. Much has happened since the Nazi triumphs of 1940-41. The United Nations have inflicted upon the Germans great defeats, in open battle, man-to-man.”
Eisenhower had a wider view of who defeated the Nazis than ‘America First’.
To Mac1
Eisenhower, like Churchill, had preferred to fight around peripheral areas, while their two biggest enemies (Nazi Germany and Communist Russia) slogged it out against each other. But then, the Russians started to be obvious winners. So Eisenhower and Churchill had to rush to invade Europe from the west, lest the Russians take over the whole lot.
Eisenhower knew bloody well who was defeating the Germans – the Russians. Why else did D-day come about?
Umm, language?
“The Americans were literally shooting down the entire Luftwaffe fighter strength every 3 months at one stage in early 1944 as the German fighters desperately tried to stop the bombers flattening their cities.” Literally??
If they shot down the entire Luftwaffe fighter strength every 3 months, the German production rate must have been phenomenal.
Sounds bloody fishy to me. And maybe a little metaphorical rather than literal.
And how can ‘every 3 months’ be at only one stage in early 1944 – a period of 3 months at the most? For just how long did this ‘every 3 months’ period last?
Care to rephrase most of what you wrote?
Underneath the stupid is a serious issue: how valuable is the five eyes relationship, and given Trump’s treachery, is a “four eyes” relationship worth pursuing?
Posted this earlier on Daily Review. But being a long Weekend got my dates wrong! ….Doesn’t do much for my credibility I know!, i.e., (Doesn’t know what day of the week it is…)
If appropriate thought it important enough to resubmit in today’s Review, given posts, and threads of late… And inspiration that Sarah gives!
And yesterdays threads/Posts can sometimes be Old News… sadly!
Anyhow… Now for someone with Guts…
“Law student Sarah Thomson has launched a judicial review of the New Zealand Government’s completely inadequate greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets.
Sarah Thomson and her lawyers now have a firm date for the hearing of her judicial review: It will be at the High Court, 2 Molesworth Street, Wellington, from 26-28 June, start time 10am.
Sarah is encouraging people to attend the hearing to show their support for the need for action on climate change. Do contribute to the important national conversation on climate change in any ways that you can.
Sarah explains her case and why she’s taking it: “….
Poll was done straight after the Budget with all the Government spin and before the gaping holes were exposed. Commentators all expected a post cabinet bounce. Once there is a full manifesto released by Labour and nothing new from National the polls will inevitably close.
Hey mighty mod. The Daily Review date should be 7/6/17. You can’t get away with foisting July on us before we have had June. And I don’t want to miss out on the Brit election excitement in the moss pit.
Yes. But I have also been known to get up when I can’t sleep and do some reading until I sleep.
I need to find another really interesting but boring book. I used to have one that was about the trading voyages to the ‘Dutch East Indies’ from the 16th century to the 19th. Usually I could manage about 10 pages before I dozed off.
The Radicalism of the American Revolution. Quite an interesting book that argues the US revolutionary war was the product of a hundred years of demographic change that fractured local hereditary power structures (e.g. looking at the changing percentage of settlements where the local mayor or magistrate was son or grandson of the previous mayor or magistrate). Much deeper than the usual myth that a bunch of folks suddenly decided to dump tea in a harbour because enlughtenment.
States a good case and really describes a fundamental demographic schism, but drier than a scorpion’s toilet paper. Unless you like tables of import/export duties.
I love them. They will be like the lists of inventory and auction prices of goods shipped around the world when sail was the fastest method of travel. Incredibly interesting, boring as shit, slower than a snail sprinting, and an instant cure for sleeplessness.
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Back in 2011, journalist Nicky Hager published Other People's Wars, an expose on NZDF's activities over the previous decade of the "war on terror". NZDF didn't like this, and especially didn't like the fact that it was base don leaks from their own. So, they had the SIS investigate him ...
The Zero Carbon Bill is due back from select committee in two weeks, and will likely pass its final stages in November. So naturally, farmers are planning a hate-march against it. But they're not just demanding lower methane targets so they can keep on destroying the planet; they're also demanding ...
Last year, California burned. This year, to stop it happening again (or rather, to stop themselves from being found liable if it happens again), Pacific Gas and Electric is cutting power to half the state for a week:Schools are closed. Traffic lights down. Tunnels dark. Businesses unopened. Hospitals running on ...
The Best Way: Missing from the on-line voting debate is any reference to the voting system that produces turn-out figures ranging from 77 to 93 percent of registered voters. The voting system used to collect and count the votes cast in our parliamentary elections. The system that involves citizens making ...
Among the great new bunch of political friends we have been making recently is the excellent Australian-based Marxist gender-critical site, Freer Lives. So we asked the comrade who set up that blog to write something for Redline on the blog, himself, his analysis of the rise of gender politics and ...
by Don Franks The Auckland City Mission is struggling with a 40 percent increase in demand for food parcels this year. A total of 23,020 were needed by June. Last month Missioner Chris Farrelly told the Herald the “cupboards are bare” and without an emergency food drive, he can’t see ...
by The Council of Disobedient Women Massey Wellington Student Association had a sit-in today. Imagine a sit-in. On a campus. Against a women’s rights meeting. Did the ’60s really happen or did we fucking dream it? They gathered in the student square, an echo chamber. Sitting on soft pillows ...
For some reasons, my post about the mystery message from inside the Downing Street bunker seemed to catch people's attention. Quite a lot of hits from NZ (unsurprisingly) and the USA (a bit more puzzlingly, but hi there, USAians!!) and 76 views from the Ukraine.I've celebrated my Ukrainian readers in ...
First, almost a score of Labour MPs seem to have sent a letter to the EU basically begging them to accept a deal - any deal - just so Britain can get the Heck on with Brexiting instead of being trapped in limbo:
by Phil Duncan In 2016 the National-led government suspended the Parent Visa Category, through which migrants were able to bring their parents into New Zealand. Since then over 5,700 people have been in immigration limbo, stuck on the visa wait list. Labour is now bringing back the scheme. Well, sort ...
The following was released yesterday (Tues, October 8) by the women’s liberation organisation Speak Up for Women. On 23 September Speak Up For Women announced that we would be holding an event at the Massey University Theaterette in Wellington. The event is called Feminism 2020. The intention of the event ...
The government is currently consulting on plans to improve freshwater quality. So naturally, farmers oppose it:South Taranaki farmers are preparing to fight proposed national freshwater changes that some fear will bankrupt them. The Government's proposed National Environment Standard on Freshwater Management, released in September, rated the Waingongoro River as one ...
Yesterday was the last day for (reliably) posting your vote away in local body elections. Turnouts are mostly much lower than the equivalent time last year (Palmerston North is down 2.3%), and so naturally people are pushing their online-voting snake oil again. Because the online census worked so well, lets ...
This essay, on the political legacy of the eugenics movement, by Kenan Malik was originally published in the Observer on 6 October 2019, under the headline ‘The spirit of eugenics is still with us, as immigrants know to their cost’. Birth control. Intelligence tests. Town planning. Immigration controls. It’s striking how ...
Another year, and the government has announced another enormous government "surplus". And just like last year, its nothing of the sort. When we have people homeless and sick and hungry, when we have schools and hospitals still falling down, when we have underpaid public servants and infrastucture unmaintained or unbuilt, ...
James Forsyth at The Spectator (I know, I know) has tapped one of his contacts inside Number Ten for an insight into the Johnson administration's thinking and strategy.It is fascinating, unsettling and quite, quite mad. Some key points:Negotiations have stalled and the Johnson administration are keen to blame the EU: ...
Fatal Contact: With the arrival of captain James Cook in October 1769, the islands of what would become New Zealand ceased to be the preserve of Polynesian navigators and settlers and became a part of both the world’s map and the world’s history.THE MAORI NATIONALIST assault upon the historical meaning ...
Another round of tactical talks about forming a Government of National Unity have come to nothing with the Liberal Democrats still refusing countenance putting Jeremy Corbyn into Downing Street:Opposition talks on Monday made little headway over when to try and vote down Boris Johnson's government and who might succeed him as ...
by Nick Rogers The debate around the meaning of sex and gender made an appearance at this year’s British Labour Party conference in Brighton. Women’s Place UK – an organisation that questions the demand that biological males who self-identify as woman should have access to women’s spaces, to all-women shortlists, ...
Yesterday I went down to Wellington to participate in the Extinction Rebellion protest. Its part of the latest global wave of XR actions, with actions happening all over the world. Some of those protests are massively disruptive: in Canada, XR is blocking major bridges, stopping people from getting to work. ...
The Workshop is a charitable trust for public good. The Workshop undertake research to find ways of communicating that will build support for the solutions that work to solve complex social and environmental problems. See their Report on Talking about Poverty and Welfare Reform below. ...
What is language? We generally assume that it a facility unique to humans, allowing us to share what’s in and on our minds. We can tell of our plans, our past exploits, our knowledge. It also allows us to lie. And yet there are vast numbers of people we can’t ...
Foreign Minister Winston Peters is predicting a hard Brexit for the United Kingdom, as he believes British Prime Minister Boris Johnson won’t be able to negotiate terms before the October 30 deadline. The Minister, who was one of the first to publicly come out and predict British voters would leave ...
Speaking at the Council of Trade Unions' (CTU) biennial conference, New Zealand First leader Winston Peters told unionists that any future attacks on the Government won't work. "Now, we are being attacked by the union movement in this country. You can have your views but I'm here to say standing ...
We want every New Zealander to be happy, safe, and healthy. To do this, we need to support strong, safe communities, and a robust and efficient health system. ...
Defence Minister Ron Mark has used his powers to overrule a noise complaint ruling against Whenuapai airbase on the grounds of "national security". The Environment Court last month released a ruling in favour of a private developer, declaring the Auckland airbase had to comply with noise restrictions when it performs ...
New Zealand First leader Winston Peters has opened fire against "unreconstructed morons" after NZ First MP Shane Jones was photographed on holiday holding an AR-15 rifle. Mr Peters is defending Mr Jones, telling Magic Talk host Peter Williams that his MP was just having fun "like most people do". "The ...
New Zealand First Deputy Leader and Under-Secretary for Regional Economic Development Fletcher Tabuteau was in attendance during the morning blessing of the Rotorua Lakefront development project. Around 60 people gathered on the shores of Lake Rotorua, including city mayor Steve Chadwick and deputy Dave Donaldson. The Lakefront development is a ...
Forestry Minister Shane Jones is considering reining in on conversions of farmland to forestry, and also issued a warning to foreign-owned forestry companies that make up nearly 75 per cent of the industry. He said too many foreign companies had not provided enough access for domestic processors to get timber. ...
Speaking to Radio NZ, New Zealand First leader Winston Peters said the tightening of the parental category visa is a direct result of the Party’s coalition negotiations with the Labour Party. He said the new changes switch the financial onus from the parent moving to New Zealand to the child ...
The Coalition Government is set to cut red tape in the building and construction sector in an effort to allow more houses to be built, including prefabricated houses. The changes will enable the mass factory production of "high quality" buildings, slash the likely number of building inspections for factory produced ...
Since coming into Government, we’ve worked hard to tackle homelessness and make sure everyone has a warm, dry home. And today, on World Homeless Day, we want to report back and update you on our progress so far. ...
New Zealand First leader Winston Peters has hit back at National Party leader Simon Bridges who criticized the Coalition Government’s approach to crime, and said that the latter isn't credible in his attack on the Government over gang recruitment. "We've got as massive drug problem in this country. It is ...
New Zealand Mānuka honey exporters have welcomed an initiative by the Coalition Government to help secure the term “mānuka honey” to be used exclusively by Kiwi exporters, ensuring that our multimillion-dollar industry is protected. Regional Economic Development Minister Shane Jones had recently announced that a Provincial Growth Funding of $5.7 ...
Political commentator Mike Hosking has labelled New Zealand First leader Winston Peters as “the voice of reason in a government soft on drugs”, for the Party’s stance on drug testing at music festivals. “If common sense is worth a vote, Winston Peters is quids in,” Mr Hosking said. The Labour ...
Parliamentary Under-Secretary for Regional Economic Development Fletcher Tabuteau has announced Provincial Growth Funding to ensure work opportunities in Turangi and Whanganui, through its skills and employment programme, Te Ara Mahi. A fund of $500,000 will go to Rafting NZ in Turangi for a 16-week river guide training course to train ...
Treasury has shown that the Coalition Government has a $7.5 billion surplus, which is $4 billion higher than what was expected in the 2019 Budget unveiled last May. It is also $2 billion higher than the actual surplus unveiled this time last year, and at a size that has not ...
Official Information Act figures released to NZME show there were 350 assaults on officers in the year to the end of June, 79 more than the year before. The increase in attacks have sparked calls for more legal protection for first responders to be enacted. The assaults included officers being ...
“Nobody wants to see babies uplifted”, this was the pronouncement of Minister for Children Hon. Tracey Martin as her department, Oranga Tamariki, faces multiple inquiries into the number of babies being taken from their families. “But a baby can die with a single punch, “the Minister continued. “So sometimes, Oranga ...
We're making progress on tackling the long-term challenges: from homelessness, to strengthening border security, to bringing banking back New Zealand's small towns. ...
Associate Transport Minister Shane Jones has backed the ambitious plan to move Auckland’s port to Northport, at Whangarei harbour, which he says will be the “King Kong of infrastructure”. The plan is part of the recommendations of a six-person independent working group, which has recommended the Ports of Auckland be ...
A six-member independent working group selected the option of moving Auckland’s port to Northport, in Whangarei, ahead of other options. In what could be New Zealand’s most ambitious infrastructure project yet, a major expansion of the Marsden Point port could happen within 15 years. The project, officially called the “Upper ...
The final Electricity Price Review recommended prohibiting prompt payment discounts but allowing “reasonable” late fees. The findings of this review was welcomed by the Coalition Government, but they hope companies will follow through with its recommendations without regulations needed to be passed. Meridian Energy had already stopped prompt payment discounts, ...
Fletcher Tabuteau, Parliamentary Under-Secretary for Regional Economic Development The Provincial Growth Fund (PGF)through its skills and employment programme, Te Ara Mahi,will invest nearly $600,000 to ensure work opportunities for locals in Turangia and Whanganui, Parliamentary Under Secretary for Regional Economic Development Fletcher Tabuteau announced today. “I’m pleased to announce the PGF ...
An export-led economy is one of New Zealand First’s key principles, and our commitment to achieving this is shown by the continuing skyrocketing demand for our beef and sheep meat exports. Beef + Lamb New Zealand's New Season Outlook 2019-20 report forecasts beef, lamb and mutton prices to lift from ...
Regional Economic Development Minister Shane Jones announced today in Gisborne an investment of $17.27m into bringing “world-leading” food-growing technology and the creation of more than 100 new jobs in the East Coast city. The funding comes from the Provincial Growth Fund, and included a $15 million loan to LeaderBrand, a ...
Hon Shane Jones, Minister for Regional Economic Development More than 100 people in Tairāwhiti’s Tolaga Bay will benefit from two employment initiatives supported by the Provincial Growth Fund, Regional Economic Development Minister Shane Jones and Employment Minister Willie Jackson announced today. “Tolaga Bay is an incredibly tight-knit community, but one in ...
Hon Shane Jones, Minister for Regional Economic Development The Provincial Growth Fund (PGF) is supporting Gisborne business Leaderbrand to produce salad vegetables year round and create more jobs in the Tairāwhiti region, Regional Economic Development Minister Shane Jones announced today. “Our support for Leaderbrand will help them build large greenhouses ...
“Nobody wants to see babies uplifted”, this was the pronouncement of Minister for Children Hon. Tracey Martin as her department, Oranga Tamariki, faces multiple inquiries into the number of babies being taken from their families. “But a baby can die with a single punch, “the Minister continued. “So sometimes, Oranga ...
Regional Economic Development Minister Shane Jones has praised the promise by New Zealand’s biggest banks not to close any provincial branches while the Coalition Government trials regional banking hubs across the country. The Minister said the announce was the “first sign of hope for regional communities”, many of which have ...
Rt Hon Winston Peters, New Zealand First Leader New Zealand First is proud to have delivered an upgrade of the SuperGold Card website and a new smartphone app, which will help unlock the full benefits of the SuperGold Card for 750,000 New Zealand seniors.Party Leader Rt Hon Winston Peters, ...
Delivering a key election campaign promise, New Zealand First is proud to have accomplished a long overdue upgrade of the SuperGold Card today. At an event in Auckland, New Zealand First leader Winston Peters joined Minister for Seniors Hon. Tracey Martin in unveiling the new website and smartphone app which ...
The Government today announced its support for a project that could substantially reduce agricultural greenhouse gas emissions from cattle. The announcement was made as part of Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s and Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor’s visit to Nelson’s Cawthron Aquaculture Park. The Cawthron Institute will receive $100,000 from the Government’s ...
Social Development Minister Carmel Sepuloni has welcomed the first reading of the New Zealand Superannuation and Veteran’s Pension Legislation Amendment Bill. “Every New Zealander has a stake in New Zealand Superannuation and Veteran’s Pension,” says Carmel Sepuloni. “They are our most common form of social assistance – nearly 800,000 New ...
Babies in Auckland aged six months and over can receive a free vaccination and children will all have access to vaccines, Associate Minister of Health Julie Anne Genter announced today at Papatoetoe High School. The move comes as part of Government efforts to step up the fight against measles. ...
***Check against delivery*** Good morning. It is a pleasure to be here, and to have the honour of opening this important conference on behalf of the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs. Let us take the opportunity to acknowledge all the people who have helped make today possible, including our special ...
Police Minister Stuart Nash says the safety of frontline officers and members of the public will be the focus of a new trial of specialist Police response teams in three of our largest urban centres. Police have this morning released details of an initiative to be trialled in Counties Manukau, ...
The Minister of Fisheries is calling for entries for a new public award to celebrate innovation in our seafood sector. “I have established the Seafood Sustainability Awards to recognise and celebrate those throughout industry, tangata whenua and communities who demonstrate outstanding dedication and innovation towards the sustainability of New Zealand’s ...
Minister for Women Julie Anne Genter welcomes leaders in the private sector taking action on closing their gender pay gaps to ensure a fairer workplace for all New Zealanders. Ms Genter today launched a new report, Addressing the gender pay gap and driving women’s representation in senior leadership, from the Champions for ...
Government Ministers today welcomed the release of a marine environment report highlighting the four key issues affecting our oceans, estuaries and coastlines. The release underlines the importance of government proposals to combat climate pollution, ensure clean freshwater, protect biodiversity, make land use more sustainable, and reduce waste and plastic. Environment ...
The Government has approved funding for a new acute mental health facility for Waikato which will provide better care and support to people with mental health and addiction issues. Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and Health Minister Dr David Clark announced the $100 million project to replace the aging Henry Rongomau ...
The Government is making progress on its goal to integrate te reo Māori into education by 2025, with over 500 teachers and support staff already graduating from Te Ahu o te Reo Māori, Associate Education Minister Kelvin Davis announced today. Kelvin Davis made the announcement at an awards ceremony in Waikanae today, for ...
Statistics Minister James Shaw has welcomed the first release of 2018 Census data. The first release of data today, 23 September, includes key data on population, regional growth, the number of homes and the size of different ethnic groups in New Zealand. Data from the 2018 Census will support the ...
Minister for Statistics James Shaw today announced a public consultation on a proposed algorithm charter for government agencies. The charter has been developed by the Government Chief Data Steward in response to growing calls for more transparency in government use of data. Computer algorithms – procedures or formulas for solving ...
Agriculture Minister Damien O’Connor, Climate Change Minister James Shaw and visiting Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte co-hosted a business roundtable in Auckland this morning focused on working together to address climate change. “The Netherlands is an important partner for New Zealand. We share a strong agricultural history. Sustainable agribusiness and ...
The Government is taking action to build an inclusive economy where more of us receive our fair share at work and businesses can compete on great products and services, not undercutting wages and conditions, Immigration and Workplace Relations and Safety Minister Iain Lees-Galloway says. Two consultations launched today seek feedback ...
The future for New Zealand’s threatened indigenous freshwater fish looks brighter with the passing of the Conservation (Indigenous Freshwater Fish) Amendment Bill in Parliament today said Minister of Conservation, Eugenie Sage. “Until now, our freshwater fish legislation has been 20 years out of date. We have lacked effective tools to ...
At 1.30pm tomorrow, hundreds of thousands of Kiwis will join about 65 million people around the globe in ShakeOut, the world’s biggest earthquake drill. The annual drill is to remind people of the right action to take during an earthquake which is to Drop, Cover, Hold, and to practise their ...
Kiwis are benefiting from higher wage growth and low inflation under the Coalition Government. Stats NZ data out today shows the rise in the cost of living remains low, as annual Consumers Price Index (CPI) inflation fell to 1.5% in September from 1.7% in June. “The low inflation comes as ...
New Zealand’s economic strength and resilience has been recognised in a major update on the state of the global economy. The IMF’s latest World Economic Outlook released overnight shows a reduced global growth forecast over the next two years as issues like the US-China trade war and Brexit take hold. ...
Justice Minister Andrew Little has today introduced a new Bill to prevent terrorism and support the de-radicalisation of New Zealanders returning from overseas. The Terrorism Suppression (Control Orders) Bill gives the New Zealand Police the ability to apply to the High Court to impose control orders on New Zealanders who ...
A Bill that proposes targeted changes to simplify the processes for Māori land owners when engaging with the Māori Land Court has had its First Reading today. “The approach taken by the Government is to ensure that the protection of Māori land remains a priority as we seek to improve ...
Let me first thank all the new unionists and members in the room. There is nothing more important to improving people’s working lives than people making the decision to care, to get on board and help, to take up the reins and get involved. Congratulations to you. You bring the ...
Minister of Defence Ron Mark has signed a certificate exempting the activity of engine testing at Whenuapai Airbase from the Resource Management Act 1991. The Act gives the Minister of Defence the power to exempt activities for the purposes of national security. The certificate will mean the recent Environment Court ...
Finance Minister Grant Robertson has announced New Zealand will join the Coalition of Finance Ministers for Climate Action while attending APEC meetings in Chile. The objective of the 39 member Coalition is to share information and promote action to tackle climate change. It was formed in April this year, in ...
Feedback sought– Lyttelton commercial zone parking The Associate Minister for Greater Christchurch Regeneration, Poto Williams, is seeking feedback on a proposal to remove on-site car parking requirements for new developments in the Lyttelton commercial zone. The proposal, by Christchurch City Council, asks that powers under section 71 of the Greater ...
Hon Minister Poto Williams Associate Minister for Greater Christchurch Regeneration MEDIA STATEMENT Tuesday 15 October 2019 Feedback sought – Hagley Oval The Associate Minister for Greater Christchurch Regeneration, Poto Williams, is seeking feedback on a proposal about Hagley Oval. The proposal was developed by Regenerate Christchurch ...
Ladies and gentlemen, NZCTU President Richard Wagstaff, members of respective unions – thank you for the invitation to speak to you today. This might be preaching to the choir, but the importance of trade unions in New Zealand’s historical arch is difficult to understate. And it is my belief that ...
"Let’s start by acknowledging that it has been a huge year. " Police Association Annual Conference James Cook Grand Chancellor Hotel Wellington Nau mai, haere mai. Tēnā koutou, tēnā koutou, ka nui te mihi, ki a koutou katoa. President of the Police Association, Chris Cahill; Members of the Association and ...
Minister of Foreign Affairs Winston Peters and Minister of Defence Ron Mark have announced the New Zealand Government’s decision to again deploy a Royal New Zealand Air Force P-3K2 (P-3) maritime patrol aircraft to support the implementation of United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolutions imposing sanctions against North Korea. New ...
Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters says New Zealand continues to have serious concerns for peace and stability in north-east Syria. “Recent reports that hundreds of ISIS-affiliated families have fled from a camp are deeply concerning from a humanitarian and security perspective”, Mr Peters says. “While we acknowledge Turkey’s domestic security ...
Biosecurity Minister Damien O’Connor is warning travelling Kiwis to be vigilant as the high-season for the crop-eating brown marmorated stink bug (BMSB) is under way. “We’re on high alert to stop BMSB arriving in NZ. The high season runs until April 30 and we’ve strengthened our measures to stop stink ...
The Government is moving swiftly to change the law to improve the welfare and pastoral care of students living in university halls of residence and other tertiary hostels. Cabinet has agreed to several changes, including creating a new mandatory Code of Practice that sets out the duty of pastoral care ...
The Minister for Conservation Eugenie Sage has launched a new comprehensive trapping guide for community trappers to help them protect our native birds, plants and other wildlife, at Zealandia in Wellington today. ‘A practical guide to trapping’, has been developed by the Department of Conservation (DOC), and was launched during ...
Associate Health Minister Julie Anne Genter welcomes PHARMAC’s move to improve access to long-acting reversible contraception (LARCs). PHARMAC has today announced it will fund the full cost of Mirena and Jaydess for anyone seeking long term contraception, lifting previous restrictions on access to Mirena. “I welcome women having greater choices ...
The Government has approved the next stage of a major redevelopment of Taranaki Base Hospital, which will deliver new and improved facilities for patients. Health Minister Dr David Clark has announced details of a $300 million dollar project to build a new East Wing at the New Plymouth hospital. It ...
Extra funding will allow Rural Support Trusts to help farming families, says Minister for Rural Communities and Agriculture Damien O’Connor. “I know that rural families are worried about some of the challenges facing them, including the ongoing uncertainty created by the Mycoplasma bovis outbreak. “Those concerns sit alongside ongoing worries ...
Thank you for the opportunity to be here to present certificates to the 16 graduates who have completed a beekeeping course delivered by the Howard League. Let us start by acknowledging Auckland Prison’s Deputy Prison Director Tom Sherlock, and Acting Assistant Regional Commissioner of Corrections Northern Region Scott Walker - ...
Finance Minister Grant Robertson leaves this weekend to attend the APEC Finance Ministers meeting in Santiago, Chile. Discussions between APEC Finance Ministers at the meeting will include the effects of the current global economic uncertainty, risks for APEC economies and sustainable development of the region. While at APEC Grant Robertson ...
The Minister for Pacific Peoples Aupito William Sio says for Pacific people, language can be a source of strength. It can help ground us and give us confidence. When we speak them, our languages provide us with an immediate and intimate access to our identity and our story - and ...
The Coalition Government has announced an action plan to improve the wellbeing of disabled New Zealanders by addressing inequalities in play, active recreation and sport. The initiative includes training to develop a workforce that understands the needs of children and young people with a range of impairments, advocacy for fit ...
The construction sector is being freed up to allow more homes to be built more quickly as the Government cuts through some of the red tape of the Building Act. “Every New Zealander deserves a warm, dry, safe home and old inefficiencies in the Building Act make building slow and ...
The faces said it all. The smiles of the European leaders crowded round Boris after the Brexit deal was struck. The deal his opponents – no, pretty much everyone – said was impossible.So what’s in it? The detail is still opaque, but subject to gremlins in the fine print, ...
Iran attracts an onslaught of negative media in New Zealand and Western media. But is it fair or deserved? David Robie has spent several weeks travelling in the country on sabbatical and finds the media negativity far from the reality of the “most friendly” country he has ever visited ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra [embedded content]University of Canberra Deputy Vice-Chancellor Professor Leigh Sullivan discusses the week in politics with Michelle Grattan. They talk about Alan Jones accusing Prime Minister Scott Morrison of failing the immediate needs of drought-striken farmers, ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Anita Parbhakar-Fox, Senior Research Fellow in Geometallurgy/Applied Geochemistry, The University of Queensland Last month, scientists uncovered a mineral called Edscottite. Minerals are solid, naturally occurring substances that are not living, such as quartz or haematite. This new mineral was discovered after an ...
The Auckland-based collective talk origins, ambitions and making the rave accessible to everybody.Friendly Potential is an outfit that defies easy summary. They’re among the country’s most ambitious and prolific club promoters. In their almost five-years of operation, they’ve been responsible for the local debuts of electronic music icons including Detroit ...
Analysis: Two polls show support for Labour sliding, the government is accused of breaking another promise and the Greens's refusal to back a bill forces Labour to rely on National to get it through. ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Kiera Lindsey, University of Technology Sydney One spring morning in 1850, over 8,000 Sydneysiders marched through town to protest the resumption of transportation – the act of sending British criminals to Australia. It was the largest protest in Australia thus far, an ...
Two shareholders of failed insurance firm company CBL are leading a class action against the firm's former directors seeking compensation for financial losses. ...
Sam Brooks recaps the third episode of RuPaul’s Drag Race UK, and wonders why some of these queens don’t know how to sew.This episode asks, and sort of answers the main question that millions of people across the world: why would you come on Drag Race and not know how to sew?!There ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John M Clarke, Team Leader, Regional Projections, CSIRO Last month we lost Dr Penny Whetton – one of the world’s most respected climate scientists and a brilliant mentor to the next generation of researchers. Penny will also be remembered as a passionate ...
Ten moose were upended into the Dusky Sounds in 1910. Now, their descendants are getting their day in the sun.The climate crisis is affecting wildlife all over the country: rockhopper penguin populations are in drastic decline, tuatara eggs aren’t hatching females, and the ice walls keeping predators away from kea ...
Security footage of NZ First MP Clayton Mitchell being thrown out of a Tauranga bar looks unlikely to ever be aired - despite his leader Winston Peters promising a screening. ...
Amnesty International is concerned that Justice Minister Andrew Little's Terrorism Suppression (Control Orders) Bill could have the potential to undermine human rights in New Zealand. The Bill would give the New Zealand Police the ability to apply to ...
Expect the old campaigner Winston Peters to be at his belligerent best as he gears up for another election. He’s kept his party alive for 27 years and he shows no sign of quitting. The omens may be bleak—polls this week showed his party below the 5% threshold– but Peters ...
The National Party has agreed to take down any videos breaching the current rules around the use of parliamentary TV footage, as all parties try to reach consensus. ...
Recently the Health Promotion Agency released a report into hazardous drinking in New Zealand. The report shows that Māori who drink alcohol and live in deprived circumstances are less likely to have a harmful relationship with alcohol if they ...
Turkey-US joint-statement on military ops within Syria’s territory.The Turkish Embassy in New Zealand issued Evening Report this unabridged United States of America-Republic of Turkey joint-statement detailing what both sides agreed to regarding Turkey’s military operations within the so-called security zone within Syrian territory near Turkey’s southern border. It is ...
Fisheries Minister Stuart Nash didn’t mention what winners will receive, when he proudly called for entries for a new public award “to celebrate innovation in our seafood sector”. Nor did he mention the cost to taxpayers of this initiative. Point of Order’s checks with the website where more details have ...
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Fiona R Martin, Senior Lecturer in Convergent and Online Media, University of Sydney One of the basic tenets of the ABC Act is independence from government. Yet once again, in contravention to that principle, the federal government is trying to push through ...
A new poem by Auckland poet Lily Holloway.modernity to globalisationwhen I get there as still life and landscape and also portraitureseeking the cacti in small pots who dot the globeslices of pie offer up the vision after the sermonexpressing emotions without coherent narrative supportbecause no artist responded to this callemploying ...
The New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union is calling on Broadcasting Minister Kris Faafoi to rule out any taxpayer-funded purchase or bailout for Mediaworks’s channel Three. Taxpayers’ Union spokesman Louis Houlbrooke says, “For the last few months Mediaworks ...
The Police Commissioner's announcement that squadcars of officers with automatic rifles will patrol New Zealand's streets is dangerous and unnecessary, according to the criminal justice community organisation People Against Prisons Aotearoa. The ...
News broke this morning that Mediaworks is seeking to sell off, and even contemplating closing, its TV division. What might that mean for journalism?For journalism in New Zealand, the loss of Three’s TV division is a devastating blow. It is not yet known whether any of the news properties will ...
In our defence of our coalition Government policy on climate change, we fully support Government plan to use rail funding for rail infrastructure upgrades to promote use rail infrastructure for freight around NZ. ...
The billions of tonnes of plastic in our oceans isn’t going away any time soon, but innovative companies here and abroad are working together to find silver linings to this daunting problem.Fishing boats head out to sea and set their nets. They go back to shore. They head back out, ...
An EveningReport.nz investigation by Kevin ListKiwibank services. Image by Kevin List.Evening Report looks into the separation of Kiwibank from New Zealand Post, and considers the impact on the public’s access to banking services in their communities.Kiwibank. What’s going on? Kiwibank and New Zealand Post are in the ...
Local Government New Zealand today confirmed what many local election commentators have observed; that more of the voting public cast their ballots in favour of women candidates than ever before. ...
The only published and available best-selling indie book chart in New Zealand is the top 10 sales list recorded every week at Unity Books’ stores in High St, Auckland, and Willis St, Wellington (this week we totted up the data a day early, on Wednesday, to let our books ed. ...
New Zealand's mineral manufacturing sector is expected to face some testing times, with softer prices, tighter margins and sluggish export markets. ...
Portugal has been painted by pro-cannabis legalisation groups as a model to follow. Yet just last month, the mayor of Porto contradicted his previous pro-harm reduction position and endorsed reintroducing criminal penalties for drug use in public spaces. ...
Chief of Defence Force Air Marshal Kevin Short announced today the inclusion of six Cook Island First World War soldiers in the New Zealand and Commonwealth War Graves Commission’s official rolls of honour. ...
The latest statistics released by the Health Promotion Agency showing a dramatic fall in the numbers of cigarettes being sold in supermarkets, service stations, and liquor stores are being welcomed by the Vaping Trade Association of New Zealand (VTANZ). ...
Editor’s Note: Here below is a list of the main issues currently under discussion in New Zealand and links to media coverage.New Zealand Parliament Buildings, Wellington, New Zealand.Today’s content by Dr Bryce Edwards.NZ First Thomas Coughlan (Stuff): Where to from here? How NZ First will win in ...
Aotearoa Climate Emergency (ACE), a climate change network, will host a conference in Wellington on 11 November (Armistice Day) to promote holding a Citizens Assembly in 2020, as a way of breaking the current political deadlock on treating climate ...
MediaWorks’ owners have called time after years of losses from its TV division. Sources say the company will announce it is for sale – if no buyers emerge, it will close within months.Three is facing the biggest crisis in its three decade history today, as its ownership will soon announce ...
Sam Brooks reviews Amazon Prime’s Modern Love, an anthology series based on the New York Times column dedicated to ‘love in all its forms’. A first date that ends up in the emergency room. A flagging marriage that finds new energy through tennis. The founder of a dating app who doesn’t ...
If we want to grow support for New Zealand’s aid, we need to get better at partnering with the ‘unlike-minded’ as well as the ‘like-minded’, and much better at telling people what we do with the money they give, says Josie Pagani, Executive ...
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One great protest song. Thank you Mr Finn. Well done Miley and Ariana.
While we’re chucking out knighthoods I think the Finn brothers should share one. Half Sir Neil and Half Sir Tim, I think they’d dig that.
Tim didn’t write it, wasn’t in crowded house till 3rd release woodface.
The latest 1 News-Colmar Brunton poll:
National 49% (up from 46)
Labour 30% (no change)
Greens 9% (down from 11)
NZ First 9% (up from 8)
Maori Party 1% (down from 4)
ACT 1% (no change)
TOP 1% (up from 0)
Undecided 12%
Refused to answer 4%
Field work conducted 27-31 May.
Preferred Prime Minister:
Bill English 29% (up from 26)
Andrew Little 8% (up from 7)
Winston Peters 7% (down from 9)
Jacinda Ardern 6%
Rogue.
About this time (about 3 months out) in the last election and the election before I seem to remember that CM was bouncing up in the mid-50s. Someone who keeps track of the polls might provide a comparison.
I wonder if :-
1. They have changed their methodology.
or
2. The public demand for this arrogant pack of the self-entitled is a lot lower this election around.
After all National and their coalition dummies regularly got more than 60% in the last couple of elections from CM polls at 3 months out. Then slid down to just getting a couple of MPs above the majority.
BTW: I consider that the only time that CM are remotely accurate is in the week before the election when they curiously move National down to something close to the end result.
I recall someone mentioning a ‘budget bounce’. Or tea leaves. No, wait, it was chicken livers.
2014 Colmar Brunton polls for National:
22–26 March 2014 – 47%
17–21 May 2014 – 51%
21–25 June 2014 – 50%
19–23 July 2014 – 52%
9–13 August 2014 – 50%
23–27 August 2014 – 48%
30 August – 3 September 2014 – 50%
13–17 September 2014 – 45%
Election result: 47.04%
Labour:
22–26 March 2014 – 31%
17–21 May 2014 – 30%
21–25 June 2014 – 29%
19–23 July 2014 – 28%
9–13 August 2014 – 26%
23–27 August 2014 – 28%
30 August – 3 September 2014 – 25%
13–17 September 2014 – 25%
Election result: 25.13%
Labour won’t want to follow a similar pattern.
Colmar was a bit generous to labour in 2014. Hopefully they have better methods in 2017 or this is bad news
Or your horoscope is more reliable than the result of a single opinion poll.
Maybe. I am getting tired of the she’ll be right attitude that many seem to be infected with which can be seen with those who dismiss the polls and assume we will just win.
These polls are real.
I don’t assume we’ll just win. Or rather, I assume if we do win it will be “only just”.
I also don’t assume we will win, but I think the whole polling thing is misleading and prescriptive.
Although I’m sure it’s working well for Corbyn right now.
The July one is probably about the closest for the relative time of the election. This coming election is about 60 days earlier.
19–23 July 2014 – 52% cf 49% National
19–23 July 2014 – 28% cf 30% Labour
Roughly a 5% swing. Plus of course you have to consider the other parties. Because there hasn’t been a non-coalition government possible in NZ since 1993.
The coalition situation is quite different to 2014.
National doesn’t appear to have gained anything from the demise of the Conservative vote. That means that they are still significantly diminished compared to last election because they are the natural home for that vote.
Act and UF are essentially still defunct unless National want to waste votes on them again. The MP is probably going to drop down below 1 MP vote in the part stakes and even with the inherent sitting MP conservatism of the Maori electorates, Flavell may have reelection issues. Hard to see how National would get to a majority with their usual gaggle of desiccated past parties.
Meanwhile the Greens and NZ First are still polling well.
TOP? Unlikely to make a good run and their policies are even worse for National than NZF’s are. I rather suspect that National would have problems with either party, and the MPs from those parties would face a revolt of their parties if they go into coalition with National.
And above all it is unlikely to have anything like a Internet-Mana or Dotcom to distract, divert and disgust this time.
What we are in now is a 4 horse race – not a 2 horse….. And incidentally, why do so many conservatives STILL keep thinking that it is a goddamn two headed race. Nostalgic wishful longing for the 197s and 1980s still?
No the 2014 election was Saturday 20 September.
I agree the coalition situation is very different, the whole situation is quite different. No Conservatives (of any significance) or Dotcom, and TOP is quite different. No Key, No Cunliffe, no Norman.
Hey Pete just checking. Have you ever posted an opinion poll when there was a significant bounce for the left?
Has anyone?
I post all of the New Zealand political opinion polls. They go either way.
he meant on TS.
I think he can speak for himself.
I post results here if no one has already done it – significant bounces to the left tend to be fairly quickly posted here so less need for me to do it.
I simply posted the Colmar results here without comment because I knew it would be of some interest. You have diverted from the actual topic a tad.
I was wondering that too micky, and whether he posted the left bouncing ones at Farrar’s blog and what happens if he does.
More unsubstantiated ‘wondering’.
I rarely post anything at Kiwiblog these days. If I posted poll results there it would be more likely to be a swing against National to ‘encourage discussion’.
This is the stat to keep an eye on;
Undecided 12%
Refused to answer 4%
That is a whooping 16% of the vote. This must be concerning to 3rd term regime seeking a 4th term.
Maori party down to a one trick pony on this slump if they get back at all? Peter Dunne he is toast, a gone burger.
The little twerp from Epsom has no pulling power and would do better by replacing him with Jordan Williams as leader.
NZ First will rise when Jones comes out of the closet.
Cat killer needs to be neutered 1% at this point in time signals 2.5 % so by not liking his posts and ripping TOP to bits when the puss puts his boot in his mouth is advisable.
I’ve been trying to decide whether to write posts about TOP’s shortcomings or just stay away from the topic entirely.
Didn’t Peters rule out Jones the other day?
I think most polls have a group of undecided/RTA.
I wouldn’t get to excited about these folks as if they can’t be bothered to answer a question on the phone I’d be surprised if they have the energy to toddle off to the voting booth on election day.
Labour are leaving their run to 40% a bit late arnt they ?
MMP. I wish all you blowhards would understand it. When the Greens get 10-15% Labour has to get 35-30% to pretty well finish it.
The blowhard who said they wanted to get labour to 40% was the Labour Party president.
https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/labour-sets-target-40-per-cent-party-vote
Heh – Priceless
so? Does it matter what they get if they can form govt? I’m sure you can understand the difference between setting a goal and still having a good outcome even if one doesn’t reach it.
At the moment labour are heading towards achieving neither.
Yawn.
… Latest One News-Colmar Brunton …… Previous CB
Nat + Maori + ACT …… 51% ….. …… ….……. … 51%
Lab + Green + NZF ….. 48% … …… …..………. . 49%
Still …… not a great Poll for ze Left
Of course if nzf come with the nats …..
One doth hear on the grapevine that Winnie only likely to head Lab’s way at next Election if – at a minimum – Lab+Green = Nat’s Party Vote
Only a possibility mind – not necessarily cast in stone
Dude getting mocked on twitter for claiming that NZ is ungrateful given that the US has been protecting us and given us our freedom (reference throwing water-filled condoms at an effigy of Tillerson),
Be grateful you are not speaking Japanese or German
What???
The Russians beat the Germans, not us.
The USA came into World War 2 only on the end of a well-placed Japanese boot.
Don’t give us that old simplistic drivel about how the Americans selflessly saved us: they were fighting for themselves, and we were damned lucky that our interests co-incided.
The Russians had a lot of help from the USA in terms of equipment…sure the Russians spilled the blood, but with out aid from the USA it may have been different.
You last paragraph is nonsense…without the USA, NZ and Australia would have been in a tonne of trouble.
Bollocks – in the well-schooled Western propaganda-influenced, you think that the minimal stuff the West shipped through to Murmansk made a difference? Rubbish. The tanks we sent were feeble, little competition for the superior German Panzer 4s, let alone the Tigers.
Russia had moved all of its important military production industry East of the Urals. The war-winning tank (the T-34) was produced there, in huge numbers. Along with good aircraft that defeated the Luftwaffe. We don’t hear about this.
80% of Hitler’s war effort went into the East, the Russians took the major impact, and did the major work. All our heroic efforts were against only 20% of Germany’s war effort.
NZ and Australia were defended by the USA because it was in the USA’s interest not to lose those areas to the Japanese. Sorry – that makes perfect sense. Had the USA not needed our countries unoccupied by the Japanese, things could well have been much different.
In Vino – you are a cock.
You dont think the 3000 liberty ships made a difference to the European war effort? or the half million US troops that died?
Not enough to change the course of the war. Without them Russia would still have crushed Germany.
That was a forgone conclusion from the time that Germany invaded Russia.
I recall a quote from Churchill saying when Germany invaded Russia, that was the moment he knew the Allies would win the war.
Have a wee look at the southern eastern front, and one battle – the Crimean Offensive – David C. Look at the cost of that one battle on the Russians and the Germans. It’s bloody terrifying the loss of human life on both sides. When you consider it’s faught in a area smaller than Otago, and the battle lasted less than a month.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_Offensive
I’d recommend this book as well.”Lost Victories: The War Memoirs of Hitler’s Most Brilliant General”
by Erich von Manstein
Brutally honest about the Soviet war machine, and how it wrecked the German Army. Plus, he was one of the best Generals in WW2 who we never hear about, I’m glad he got shafted by Hitler, we all should be.
Very true on equipment the Churchil III was a waste of space, nice armor but a useless gun. The Valentine (2 From memory) was a good tank, but very few made it into Russia in working order. The Matilda (sorry canny remember the make off the top of my head) was another OK tank, but again lacked a decent gun so the Russians used it in a support role. Most of the USA tanks could not handle the cold. M4 was a great tank, but would seize up in freezing temps – which was good for the USA to learn come the invasion of Europe post D-Day planing.
As for aircraft, all of the British aircraft suffered in the cold and we under powered. As for Artillary, this was welcomed by the Russians, as it was solid, but they did not get much. The best thing about the aid to Russia was the psychological effect. The feeling for the Russia’s that they were not alone.
As for us and the Aussies being stuffed without the yanks. Silly question Chucky do you know who was the first army to beat, and turn back a major Japaneses invasion force? I’ll give you a hint, it happened in Papua New Guinea. It opened up the door for a couple of major naval victories, and meant that the marines didn’t get wasted at Guadalcanal.
I’m not denying the Yanks did a good job, they did. I think you under estimate what us and the Aussies did.
Did you know that some of the best fighter planes in WWII were Russian?
The best tanks were:
From the same article comes the vital point though:
The US could have kept out of the European front and the Germans would have been crushed by the Russians.
His last paragraph makes perfect sense. You attacking him by restating his position doesn’t.
The United Nations defeated the Axis, actually. So the UN (the “Allies”) fought together against Germany – the USSR couldn’t have destroyed Army Group Centre without US rations, avgas, trucks, jeeps and radios for example. And the Germans would have had a lot stronger defenses in the East if the 22,000 heavy anti-aircraft guns they had defending the Reich could have been used there.
The Americans were literally shooting down the entire Luftwaffe fighter strength every 3 months at one stage in early 1944 as the German fighters desperately tried to stop the bombers flattening their cities. Basically the Red Air Force had no opposition because the Anglo-Americans shot them all down.
There was a “second front” against Germany – in the air – long before D-Day.
However, it was the Americans alone who beat the Japanese.
Much of what you say is true, but I think I remember reading that the Luftwaffe lost just as heavily in the East before the Mustang fighter arrived to do the coup de grace in the West. 1944 is very late in the war, and the Russians were well in control by then
The fact remains that 80% of Germany’s war effort went into the East. Saying that we rescued Russia (as you imply) by forcing the Germans to keep a few resources in the west hardly convinces.
Off topic, but this “effort” thing is a really, really interesting subject to a history fan like me. By 1943, the war in the East had largely degenerated into a WW1 style slogging match between two huge armies of militia with motorised formations only common in decisive zones. The Germans looked good only because often the Soviets were worse (at Anzio the Allies were astonished at the inflexible infantry tactics and poor artillery co-ordination of the “good” German divisions transferred from the East).
Now, if you measure effort as a simple mathematical equation – 200 divisions in the east, 40 in the West, therefore 80% of the effort was in the east – then you are right. But since 1914 numbers have only told (an increasingly less important) part of the story. Modern weapons means concentrating more men at the point of attack simply increases losses.
The Germans themselves were aware of the technology and tactical flexibility gap between their average units and the western allies, whose entire armies were motorised and lavishly supplied with radios and support weapons. The German army in Normandy featured the cream of their armoured forces – ten full strength divisions including no less than five of the seven Waffen SS armoured divisions.
In a similar vein, although the Allied bomber offensive required relatively little manpower to defend against it consumed an outsized proportion of the output of the German high technology sector in radars, fire control systems, optics, large and sophisticated night and day fighters, and the highly skilled pilots and workforce needed to support that effort.
Since the 1980s there has been a revision of the impact the western allies had on the overall war situation. Without wanting to belittle the huge sacrifices of the USSR, technology had a major impact on the way the Western allies fought the war. For example, in the entire Stalingrad campaign the Soviets lost around 1.5 million to inflict 800,000 losses on the Axis. At the same time, the Western allies decisively defeated the Axis in North Africa, losing 240,000 (since 1941) to inflict 900,000 losses on the Axis.
Nope, the UN didn’t really exist until after the war. Prior to then it was the Allies.
[citation needed]
Please note, Russia has been a major producer of oil and oil products for decades.
I suspect that those AA guns would have had difficulty with the 84000 T34s.
Sounds more like Western propaganda than reality.
Sanctuary, the Russians were about to piss all over the Japs. The Yanks dropped the bomb to ‘warn’ the Russians.
Well, piss all over them in Manchuria, maybe, but the Russians weren’t getting ready to invade the home islands any time soon.
The best explanation I heard for the yanks nuking cities was that it never occurred to anyone to not drop the bomb: the army didn’t want to invade the home islands, the air force wanted to use it as the fulfillment of strategic bombing, the manhatten and b29 projects needed to be justified, and yes the diplomats had their eye on post-war negotiations.
The only ones who didn’t see a need for it were the submariners, who’d basically done Japan into the ground already.
Lots of self-centered reasons for individual groups supporting it, nobody really opposing it.
A long time ago for me to now quote a source, but I seem to remember an argument that once the Russians had invaded shoreline near Japan, they would be able to mount an invasion before the Americans could ever assemble the distant naval build-up they would need. What they took to Iwo Jima would not suffice…
So maybe there was a thought of warning off the Russians?
Interesting, looks like your recollection is correct. So it might have been an additional factor.
Must confess I’ve never really looked at the Russians in the pacific. Will have to do some catch-up 🙂
Soviet–Japanese War (1945)
yeah I knew they were transferring land forces and tooling through China and some of the smaller island groups, I just wasn’t aware they had the capacity to land (and protect the landing forces) thirty-odd divisions in the Pacific anywhere close to that time.
Bearing in mind that most of the US island-hopping was bad enough going when they routinely provided numerous destroyers, battleships and even aircraft carriers of different sizes to cover the landing ships, I hadn’t really picked that a large-scale soviet naval landing was even on the horizon.
In his exhortation to his troops on the eve of D-Day, Eisenhower referred to the ‘united nations’.
“But this is the year 1944. Much has happened since the Nazi triumphs of 1940-41. The United Nations have inflicted upon the Germans great defeats, in open battle, man-to-man.”
Eisenhower had a wider view of who defeated the Nazis than ‘America First’.
To Mac1
Eisenhower, like Churchill, had preferred to fight around peripheral areas, while their two biggest enemies (Nazi Germany and Communist Russia) slogged it out against each other. But then, the Russians started to be obvious winners. So Eisenhower and Churchill had to rush to invade Europe from the west, lest the Russians take over the whole lot.
Eisenhower knew bloody well who was defeating the Germans – the Russians. Why else did D-day come about?
To Sanctuary:
Umm, language?
“The Americans were literally shooting down the entire Luftwaffe fighter strength every 3 months at one stage in early 1944 as the German fighters desperately tried to stop the bombers flattening their cities.” Literally??
If they shot down the entire Luftwaffe fighter strength every 3 months, the German production rate must have been phenomenal.
Sounds bloody fishy to me. And maybe a little metaphorical rather than literal.
And how can ‘every 3 months’ be at only one stage in early 1944 – a period of 3 months at the most? For just how long did this ‘every 3 months’ period last?
Care to rephrase most of what you wrote?
C’mon IV. I have seen enough Hollywood war movies to know that the Americans saved the world in WW2
Oh darn, I had forgotten about them!
Yes, you must be right.
Underneath the stupid is a serious issue: how valuable is the five eyes relationship, and given Trump’s treachery, is a “four eyes” relationship worth pursuing?
Posted this earlier on Daily Review. But being a long Weekend got my dates wrong! ….Doesn’t do much for my credibility I know!, i.e., (Doesn’t know what day of the week it is…)
If appropriate thought it important enough to resubmit in today’s Review, given posts, and threads of late… And inspiration that Sarah gives!
And yesterdays threads/Posts can sometimes be Old News… sadly!
Anyhow… Now for someone with Guts…
“Law student Sarah Thomson has launched a judicial review of the New Zealand Government’s completely inadequate greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets.
Sarah Thomson and her lawyers now have a firm date for the hearing of her judicial review: It will be at the High Court, 2 Molesworth Street, Wellington, from 26-28 June, start time 10am.
Sarah is encouraging people to attend the hearing to show their support for the need for action on climate change. Do contribute to the important national conversation on climate change in any ways that you can.
Sarah explains her case and why she’s taking it: “….
http://coalaction.org.nz/news/stand-sarah-climate-high-court-wellington-26-28-june
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11862450
Poll was done straight after the Budget with all the Government spin and before the gaping holes were exposed. Commentators all expected a post cabinet bounce. Once there is a full manifesto released by Labour and nothing new from National the polls will inevitably close.
Speaking of a Labour manifesto…
There is a popular one in the UK.
I wonder if we could get a copy.
Hey mighty mod. The Daily Review date should be 7/6/17. You can’t get away with foisting July on us before we have had June. And I don’t want to miss out on the Brit election excitement in the moss pit.
Right you are, fixed. Mighty Mod – I like it! Maybe I should get a cape.
Nah. Haven’t you seen the incredibles? No capes for super her0s. They are too dangerous.
Don’t you guys ever go to bed and get some shut-eye?
Yes. But I have also been known to get up when I can’t sleep and do some reading until I sleep.
I need to find another really interesting but boring book. I used to have one that was about the trading voyages to the ‘Dutch East Indies’ from the 16th century to the 19th. Usually I could manage about 10 pages before I dozed off.
The Radicalism of the American Revolution. Quite an interesting book that argues the US revolutionary war was the product of a hundred years of demographic change that fractured local hereditary power structures (e.g. looking at the changing percentage of settlements where the local mayor or magistrate was son or grandson of the previous mayor or magistrate). Much deeper than the usual myth that a bunch of folks suddenly decided to dump tea in a harbour because enlughtenment.
States a good case and really describes a fundamental demographic schism, but drier than a scorpion’s toilet paper. Unless you like tables of import/export duties.
Unless you like tables of import/export duties.
I love them. They will be like the lists of inventory and auction prices of goods shipped around the world when sail was the fastest method of travel. Incredibly interesting, boring as shit, slower than a snail sprinting, and an instant cure for sleeplessness.