Daily review 09/03/2023

11 comments on “Daily review 09/03/2023 ”

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1. observer 1

   9 March 2023 at 5:58 pm

   Headlines are made out of each poll, but there is no real news here. There is little between the two "blocs", and no sign that Luxon is connecting.

   Will National stick or twist? If I were a Nat MP, I'd twist. You can be certain that Hipkins wants them to stick.

   https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/131453595/labour-and-national-neckandneck-with-just-one-seat-in-it-in-latest-poll
   • Graeme 1.1

     9 March 2023 at 8:43 pm

     Scary result of that poll was potentially near 15% wasted vote.

     Or NZ First getting back in courtesy of the cooker vote to put National in power. That will be entertaining for as long as it lasts. Winnie can see 5%+ there and is going hard to get it.
     • Belladonna 1.1.1

       9 March 2023 at 9:10 pm

       I agree that NZF and Winston back in Parliament is one of my nightmare scenarios.
       • weka 1.1.1.1

         9 March 2023 at 9:14 pm

         same.
   • Belladonna 1.2

     9 March 2023 at 9:09 pm

     I can't find the polling period – but Curia is usually the first week of the month- which would definitely cover the period following Gabrielle et al in February.

     Given that, it must be concerning to the Green Party to see their vote share drop – during a significant climate crisis event, where the GP should be making major headway with their action plan.

     National/Labour pretty much continuing their neck-and-neck results – though Labour inching into the lead for the first time – which must be a relief for Hipkins and the Labour polling people.
     • observer 1.2.1

       9 March 2023 at 9:23 pm

       The Herald report has more detail:

       https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/labour-takes-the-lead-in-new-poll-greens-hover-above-threshold/LJJNPXLJQFDMVDFN6QCERN4UHU/
       • Belladonna 1.2.1.1

         9 March 2023 at 9:35 pm

         Thx

         Yep. First week of March.

         Interesting addition that ACT and GP are down by the same amount 2% – which is a bit of a reversal of the poll results we've seen over the last few months – where the right/left wings were hollowing out the centre vote.

         TPM also dropped – although difficult to say how significant this is – since polling for them is fairly unreliable using standard techniques.

         I'm sure the GP aren't panicking (one swallow doesn't make a summer) – but I should think they'd view this result with concern, and be grateful to Swarbrick for the belt-and-braces opportunity to retain Auckland Central.
2. Alan 2

   9 March 2023 at 7:38 pm

   Why would you change leader when on these results National and Act can form a government and Labour/Greens/TMP cannot?
   • observer 2.1

     9 March 2023 at 9:17 pm

     As I said, it's stick or twist. If you think Luxon is a positive, fine. The voters consistently say he's a negative,. That includes National voters. This poll simply repeats the clear message from other recent polls. Ignore it if you wish.

     As Graeme suggests, Luxon's unpopularity encourages the "anti" vote to look elsewhere. In a campaign, that could be fatal for National.

     "Mr Luxon, David Seymour has ruled out working with Peters, will you?"

     "Ah, look, what I'm saying to you, let me be clear, the reality is, in terms of … rhubarb rhubarb …"

     (and the voters give up …)
     • weka 2.1.1

       9 March 2023 at 9:31 pm

       Long live Luxon.
3. joe90 3

   9 March 2023 at 10:02 pm

   One minute you're wibling about QAnon, pizzagate, white genocide, 9/11, the Clinton body count, Jewish space lasers, executing your political opponents, covid restrictions are just like the persecution of Jews, etc, etc, and nek minit, you're the stand-in speaker.

   https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1633485195642048512

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