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notices and features - Date published:
5:30 pm, August 10th, 2023 - 24 comments
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Another poll with labour in the 20's
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/495523/taxpayers-union-poll-suggests-seven-seats-for-nz-first-in-opposition
Although too late for this election it should be a wake-up call if the party wants a future
Obviously not too late for this election, but more importantly, it is amazing that Luxon has single-handedly revived NZ First. He's opened the coffin and delivered the kiss of life to a corpse.
MMP for Beginners, chapter 1: if you leave a vacuum, somebody else will fill it. Just saying "we're against the other lot" might work in a 2-party system, but not in NZ.
National's strategy of standing for nothing (under a leader who is nothing) could leave them with the "coalition of chaos", a richly deserved irony.
My impression is that National, ACT and NZ First are vying for the same voters. In short Waitakere man and woman.
We have Chris Trotter to thank for that insightful description of the typical politically uninformed, conservative and reactionary voters. I hasten to add that not everyone who resides in the Waitakere region are so inclined. Looking at mickysavage. 🙂
When it comes to the crunch, there are only so many of them spread around the country so it will be interesting to see how they divide themselves up on election day.
I think quite a few Centre Right Voters will vote NZF as I don't think they could stomach a National/ACT Coalition who would reign merry hell on this country and kick the poor and disadvantaged further down the Sewer Pipe.
Well said Obs.
What menu do you suggest Labour offer up if it wants a future?
https://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-03-08-2023/#comment-1962844
Ok, gruel and slops. Prison food.
The "baby faced assassin" is trying to sleep walk to victory, using the formula that worked for the… "smiling assassin".
Unbelievably despite not having Hatmans ability to fake sincerity. it's. Working.
Time for Chris Hipkins to go. He's finished, as is Labour if they stick with him and his captains calls.
Fresh face, fresh ideas let's do this!
Riiight. Who you got in mind ? Luxon ? Seymour?
I would have chosen Wood and Kiri but now it has to be Kieran McAnulty and Cushla Tangaere‑Manuel.
Labours polling in the 20s. Winston is going with the right if needed.
What other choices do we have? Hold on and hope this is going to turn around with Hipkins and his incrementalist attitude in charge?
Yeah, good luck with that…
The obvious problem with your panicky proposal is that Hipkins is both much more popular than his party and Luxon.
Well you hold on to that won't you.
Even though the latest poll showed Luxon and Hipkins neck and neck at 25% preferred PM.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/election-2023-new-poll-shows-labour-crashing-nzf-rising-and-national-act-with-enough-support-to-govern/HNJHVHFYWRBY3HO735BBDFTHFA/
Changing the Labour leader at this stage…is just nuts. Beside that some..seem to think that giving up is "the" option…to teach Labour some kind of lesson. Like 3 (or more) years of NAct will be some kind of payback.
I think I'll leave you to it.
It is nuts, but Labour need a circuit breaker.
I genuinely believe Kieren would get immediate cut through.
The status quo is not working.
Labour could release some policy that voters want?
Yes that seems a simpler idea than a change of leadership at this stage, so close to an election. .
You are a National MP in 2020. Or you have the memory of a goldfish.
This is the Curia Poll??? Panic not.
Aye PB ! Seemingly, some keen on running up the white flag….
Well, I can understand the recommendation not to panic – and in reality the left/right blocks are still close (I wouldn't care to call the election).
However, the last 3 polls all have Labour in the 20s – and the last 7 all have Labour being outpointed by National (despite the lack of cut through of Luxon with the electorate).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2023_New_Zealand_general_election
At what point do you start to consider that Labour need to take some effective action?
Waiting for the final election result in October will, indeed, be too late.
For those who still haven't grasped it (and there seem to be a few who comment on TS), today we have yet more evidence that being unhappy with the government is in no way related to wanting more right-wing policies:
That evil wealth tax that Nat/ACT want to scare us with, and Hipkins was scared by …
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2023/08/newshub-reid-research-poll-results-do-kiwis-support-chris-hipkins-decision-to-rule-out-wealth-tax.html
Turns out the voters might be more reasonable than the politicians.
Not a gambling person but if I was going to call it on election day I would be looking at the percentage of undecided in all these polls. I would say Labour may have the leading points at the moment, just not reflected in all these polls.
I remember Jim Bolger in a similar position as Hipkins is now back in the 90's saying…."bugger the polls" and he went on to win another term.
But then I am an optimist and prefer light over darkness……