Daily review 14/04/2022

26 comments on “Daily review 14/04/2022 ”

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1. roblogic 1

   14 April 2022 at 5:54 pm

   Multiply this story by 1000 and you'll see why Labour is losing in the polls. Their oppressive rules have broken the hearts of thousands of families.

   https://twitter.com/dontlookdown_fb/status/1514128576232271875?s=21&t=FhOLSyWfAXAb2AAg5tNsNw
   • Matiri 1.1

     14 April 2022 at 6:24 pm

     That's a story from the UK about a young Birmingham cancer sufferer, so I'm not sure what your point is. The #partygate tag is for Boris Johnsons flagrant disregard of the covid rules.
     • roblogic 1.1.1

       14 April 2022 at 6:52 pm

       Oops!!
     • Peter 1.1.2

       14 April 2022 at 7:26 pm

       But maybe the pot indicates why Labour is losing in the polls and may be on the skids at the next election. Bullshit and creating false impressions to suck in the short-sighted, gullible and ignorant.
2. In Vino 2

   14 April 2022 at 7:20 pm

   You have my sympathy Roblogic. Back in the 1960s-70s I swallowed hook line and sinker the Tonkin Gulf story as portrayed in our 'reliable' NZ news media. It was used as justification for the USA to send US military forces to South Vietnam for direct participation in the war. It is now known as what Trump would call 'fake news'.

   A lie to justify formal US military engagement. I do not remember any apology from the NZ News media for enthusiastically lying to us at the time..

   Now we have the Bacha massacre – supposedly a war crime committed by the evil, nasty Russians Except that it may not actually be so. Maybe the Russians withdrew on March 30 – before the massacre and satellite photos etc.. maybe the slaughter happened after the Russians left.

   I know that the website will immediately be discredited, but Moon of Alabama

   https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/04/us-military-intelligence-official-refutes-russian-atrocities-claims.html supports my distrust of NZ news media. (= 5 Eyes propaganda.)
   History will show things differently, I fear.

   Fools rush in where angels fear to tread,
   And I don’t believe half the crap I’m being fed.
   • RedLogix 2.1

     14 April 2022 at 8:01 pm

     The fog of war is very think indeed. And all parties have existential reasons to paint the picture as they would have it portrayed.

     As I keep saying – war is not politics. Different rules apply.
   • roblogic 2.2

     14 April 2022 at 9:41 pm

     In this case it’s not American disinformation it is a case of me not being careful to check the context.., and indulging in a bit of confirmation bias because a certain tweet appeared to fit into a narrative that I feel strongly about.

     We are all capable of cognitive errors, the only solution is to remain open to other perspectives
3. aj 3

   14 April 2022 at 7:47 pm

   maybe the slaughter happened after the Russians left.

   Autopsy, time of death, would settle aspects of this. But not all of it. I've had 70-odd years of finding we've been fed BS
4. tsmithfield 4

   14 April 2022 at 8:08 pm

   From the "You can give it but you can't take it file" I see the Russians are having a cry because the Ukranians are cheeky enough to sneak into Russia to sabotage their stuff.

   I don't think the Russians are used to fighting people who fight back. They are more into shelling defenceless civilians.
   • joe90 4.1

     14 April 2022 at 8:22 pm

     Russian talking heads are offended by a graphic Ukrainian propaganda/revenge porn video featuring an actress threatening Russian invaders with certain death.

     https://www.thedailybeast.com/russian-state-tv-goes-ballistic-over-ukraine-shock-video-showing-fake-killing-of-soldier
     • Francesca 4.1.1

       15 April 2022 at 12:10 pm

       If you liked that Joe, you'd probably love the revenge porn filmed in Lviv 1941 when Ukrainian partisans took it out on the jews who they blamed for the "Red scourge"

       About as disgusting as your video mocking up an Isis style execution , using the same favoured agricultural tool the Ukrainians used in 1941

       https://encyclopedia.ushmm.org/content/en/film/pogrom-in-lvov

       Myself, I prefer the Russian soldiers video retort
       • joe90 4.1.1.1

         15 April 2022 at 1:02 pm

         My Ukrainian friend was fourteen years old when he was horribly disfigured by Red Army liberators who said he was a Nazi. They cut his nose off. Fuck Russia.
         • Francesca 4.1.1.1.1

           15 April 2022 at 1:42 pm

           Heard that one before from you.Anecdotes do not a history make.
           • RedLogix 4.1.1.1.1.1

             15 April 2022 at 1:43 pm

             On the contrary – history is the sum of all anecdotes.
     • joe90 4.1.2

       15 April 2022 at 12:45 pm

       Apparently it's a portrayal of Mara, the Slavic goddess of death, dreams and rebirth.

       https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Morana_(goddess)
     • RedLogix 4.1.3

       15 April 2022 at 1:02 pm

       Last night I had a very dark dream. I make no apology for it. In brief I was the manager of a large Russian prison; grim, dystopian, cruel and full of irredeemably dangerous criminals.

       And because of the wider war with Ukraine almost all of my staff were unable or too afraid to work – I was left alone and isolated in an office. And the prisoners knew this and were breaking out of their cells – it was only a matter of a short time before they got loose out of the prison, free to murder, rape and pillage their way across the country. The police forces were collapsing and there would be little to stop them.

       Under my desk was your classic doomsday red button that would release poison gas throughout the whole facility, including where I was. But it was the only way to stop and even greater suffering of innocents. All I had one old gas mask that looked like it might work for a short while. It was plain what I had to do, but the burden of it was crushing all the same.

       That was pretty much where I woke up. For me I keep coming back to the boundless horrors and cruelties that Putin has unleashed here, not just on the Ukrainian people, but ultimately on his own and possibly billions of others globally if the world food system breaks down. For all the war-porn and analysis, for all the strategic considerations and speculations, for all the victories and losses – we cannot ever lose sight of the brute senselessness of it all. That none of this was necessary, and that finding a path forward to make war obsolete must be promoted to the primary political goal of this century.

       The political unity of humankind is the exit ramp everyone keeps looking for. It is just hard to see in the fog of war and the passions of nationalism.
       • Francesca 4.1.3.1

         15 April 2022 at 1:55 pm

         RL

         Jung would have a field day with that one.I've been having some pretty grim dreams too.I have some heritage in that part of the world.Whatever happens, and we survive, I agree, we just have o evolve, war is so animalistic and barbaric.Saw a doco last night on the history channel, really good.Explained to me why there is and has been so much nationalism and militarism in Eastern Europe.Got an inkling of what it must feel like to be Ukrainian, and Polish for that matter ,crushed and splintered constantly between the great powers The three Empires Austro Hungarian, German And Russian .What a mess when great empires break up.Like what followed in Yugoslavia.

         The hunger for independence can lead to an excess of nationalism and ethnic purity

         "Cry havoc and unleash the dogs of war"

         I hope you never have to be a soldier.
         • RedLogix 4.1.3.1.1

           15 April 2022 at 3:21 pm

           Explained to me why there is and has been so much nationalism and militarism in Eastern Europe.

           And a lot of it is due to geography. In historic terms disproportionate fraction of all wars have happened, or been triggered, in just three major regions – Eastern Europe, the Middle East and the Far East.

           The ME remains a powder keg, with Saudi and Iran tearing Yemen apart like dogs fighting over a lump of bloody meat. The CCP sits astride another geographic mess, an economy and population totally dependent on trade yet surrounded by neighbours who have every reason to distrust them at best, and governed by another despotic, isolated tyrant alone with his delusions.

           If you think Ukraine is bad, imagine if all three of these conflict zones erupted in the next year or so. The consequences just on food security alone are unthinkable – the Third Horseman might ride as never before.

           In this we are all soldiers – we just don’t know it yet.
   • RedLogix 4.2

     14 April 2022 at 8:22 pm

     Linking back to your mentions of PZ – yes I've followed him for some time now. He makes the traditionally stuffy topic of geopolitics quite absorbing. I have read all of his books and was surprised to learn from one clip that he studied at the Uni of Auckland for a period. He mentions NZ with fondness and humour in some of his earlier work.

     Like any source there is no requirement to accept everything he says, and I really enjoy longer form interviews like this recent one where the interviewer asks good questions.

     As he says in a few places – while politics and personalities grab our immediate attention, it is the 'maths and maps' that truly determine the long-term fate of nations.
     • tsmithfield 4.2.1

       14 April 2022 at 8:57 pm

       Yeah, I have just been watching quite a few of his podcasts, including a lot of the long ones. But his books sound fascinating, so I might see if I can buy them as e-books.

       In his podcasts in mid-March, he was of the view that the Russians would eventually win this war, in the conventional stage of it anyway. It would be interesting to see if he felt the same way now.

       The Ukranians taking that ship out was huge. That was the ship that has been firing cruise missiles across Ukraine. The Russians are running short of cruise missiles anyway, and it isn't that easy for them to make more. I read that Ukraine was actually making some of the components for Russian gear including missiles. And that their main tank manufacturing plant was unable to source necessary parts due to the sanctions.

       Turkey has closed off military shipping getting into the area, so what the Russians have there now is all that they will be able to use.

       So, I think the Russians could start to run low on useable equipment soon. Whereas the west is pouring stuff in hand over fist. So, I think the war is starting to move in Ukraines favour.

       Russia always has the option to win through something terrible like chemical weapons or tactical nuclear. But I think NATO has made it very clear they won't put up with that sort of behaviour, so hopefully Russia won't go there.
       • tsmithfield 4.2.1.1

         14 April 2022 at 9:11 pm

         Also, I think claiming victory by May 9th is going to be a stretch for the Russians.

         Firstly it is really muddy there at the moment, and have just been having a lot of rain. I understand some tanks have sunk right up to their turrets. Certainly the fuel trucks will have to stay on the roads, which will make them a target for the Ukranians.

         Even if Russia does manage its encircling move, that creates problems of its own. Firstly, it creates further logistics problems with fuel and ammo having to be trucked in, and vulnerable to attack.

         Secondly, that encircling manoeuvre will create a very long, exposed flank that the Ukranians will be able to attack from the west, as well as from the forces within the encirclement.
       • RedLogix 4.2.1.2

         14 April 2022 at 9:23 pm

         The Russians are running short of cruise missiles anyway, and it isn't that easy for them to make more.

         Anything with electronics is troublesome right now. I'm sure they will be working every underground back channel that will take gold in untraceable payment – but that will have limits. The Russians were traditionally never that good at electronics anyway – big sodding lumps of steel yes, microchips no.

         But under Putin's corrupt regime it seems they have not even been able to get basics like the trucks right.
         • tsmithfield 4.2.1.2.1

           14 April 2022 at 9:46 pm

           Yes, I did see that about their trucks. I think there was a shortage of trucks in the first place because I think the normal way the Russians deal with logistics is to rail as much in as possible, and lay down temporary fuel lines to fuel there tanks etc. A bit hard for them to get enough control to do that in Ukraine I think.

           And yesterday the Ukranians knocked out a rail bridge in Russia. They only managed to damage the bridge, not destroy it. But looking at the picture in the article, that bridge is probably more problematic than if it was completely taken out. I would think that bridge will need to firstly be dismantled then rebuilt before it can be used again.

           Also, I have just seen a Ukranian report that they have knocked out a bridge near Izium while russian vehicles were crossing it. So, it is going to make it problematic to put a Pontoon bridge down, if the river bed is littered with wrecked vehicles.

           Much has been made of the Donbas being closer to Russia hence easier for logistics. But stuff still has to travel a long way within Russia to get to the front. So, if the Ukranians keep attack logistics within Russia, then I think the logistic problems are going to persist.
5. joe90 5

   14 April 2022 at 8:12 pm

   By 48 tons.

   https://twitter.com/ShabanianAram/status/1514382892557774851
6. SPC 6

   14 April 2022 at 8:15 pm

   Re our inflation problem.

   The inflation is caused by impact on international and domestic production and distribution – this as a result of the pandemic, sanctions and war.

   It can be argued that blaming government spending and worker’s wages for inflation is the capitalisms way of burning a witch after a bad harvest to bolster confidence in the marketplace.

   Yet the fact is, labour shortages in both production and distribution will resolve as borders open and people no longer need to isolate.

   So, the inflation panic is unwarranted.

   Of course, the real issue is hidden – it is a deliberate increase in interest rates to bolster returns for debt finance post QE. However, that places pressure on government finances (higher debt repayments).

   The irony is that the right wing – Prebble dribbling on about government spending – is still keen on tax cuts. Tax cuts, while debt cost is rising, is madness.

   If a government cannot manage debt cost this undermines the public sector and thus the social contract.

   And we are still to resolve the GW threat. So it is either a MMT challenge to the status quo, or we face another ruinous round of the post 70's move further to the right in our economic and political regime. That is where we cling onto our Five Eyes White Man’s burden club membership for a generation longer while the rest of the world anticipates the end of the neo-liberal order and makes plans for their place in the world without it.
   • roblogic 6.1

     15 April 2022 at 12:20 am

     Agreed except for the bit about taming 'labour shortages' via cargo cult immigration. We seriously need to improve incomes vs asset value inflation in this country. Since 1984 the transfers from public to private wealth and from workers to assets has been a form of legalised theft from the people of Aotearoa.

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