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Daily review 19/09/2022

Written By: - Date published: 5:30 pm, September 19th, 2022 - 26 comments
Categories: Daily review - Tags:

Daily review is also your post.

This provides Standardistas the opportunity to review events of the day.

The usual rules of good behaviour apply (see the Policy).

Don’t forget to be kind to each other …

26 comments on “Daily review 19/09/2022 ”

  1. Robert Guyton 1

    Robbie Burton on Nicky Hager:

    "It says everything about Nicky’s extraordinary dedication and research skills, quite apart from his courage, that despite the endless vitriol from his detractors, we have never ended up in court over one of his books – the passage of time has always revealed the accuracy of his work. Consequently, my trust in him is absolute. His most powerful weapon, and one that lies behind everything he does, is his integrity. His sole motivation is to make the world a better place, and money and power simply do not matter to him. In my view he is a national treasure."

    https://www.newsroom.co.nz/the-terror-of-publishing-nicky-hager

  2. Poission 2

    Big week as Central banks globally (and here) review rates to curb animal spirits,enacted by Disneyland economics.

    Moodys moved NZ covered mortgage bonds to negative today due to the higher risk with Auckland's unaffordable housing.

    • pat 2.1

      Yes a mistake of huge proportions, but one we had to go along with…and one that was perhaps the lesser of two evils (temporarily), if growth has indeed ceased.

      Pain now or pain later?….politicians (including central bankers) will always choose later.

      • Poission 2.1.1

        The tradeoff with housing foe example was with sustainable housing or affordable housing different beasts.

        The former is to having a housing infrastructure that produces within its capacity to meet available demand.Affordable housing is what you can pay by historical metrics.Artificially low interest rates and a liquid market,forced both housing costs and additional cost demands from services and local authorities etc.

        To constrain higher interest rates,sensible spending needs to be enabled by natural monopolies such as central and local government, and utilities as demands reduce.

        • pat 2.1.1.1

          What do you think would have happened to our access to international finance if we hadnt provided the return opportunity with the only card we had to play…a housing bubble…especially when our fellow anglospheres were proving willing?

    • Ad 2.2

      Australia and New Zealand appear to be the closest thing to a global sweet spot. Compared to … everywhere

      • Poission 2.2.1

        Both have policy forced constraints,but food and energy security are reasonable compared with the NH and their winter of discontent.

        • Ad 2.2.1.1

          Also both NZ and Au have solid left governments with strong welfare systems, and will print and distribute all the cash you want, holdingst 3.5% unemployed with huge services upside to come.

          • Poission 2.2.1.1.1

            The printing with high inflation is inflationary,which will in turn lead to higher interest rates,and higher debt.

            There needs to be a slowing of the economy to within capacity constraints,and a change of thought from the me now generation,from want they want,to what they need.High growth ,high yield thinking is past,sustainable replacement is what is needed.

            • Nic the NZer 2.2.1.1.1.1

              Businesses are demand lead. Contracting the economy to meet capacity constraints will surely result in lower future capacity and lesser NZ capacity to produce independently.

              Its also going to do sweet FA to slow inflation drivers but will continue to contribute to ongoing income inequalities.

              • Poission

                The construction industry is operating at around 130% of capacity,which fuels inflationary costs,and requires import substitution of constrained materials.In this environment the businesses operate on a cost plus mode,not a cost less mode from efficiency.

                It is also being funded by debt that will only become more expensive.

                • Nic the NZer

                  Thats an absurd claim. If you want to talk about maximum capacity (of some industry) its not something which can be exceeded. And that activity is presently improving the countries building capacity into the future.

                  I don't know what your claiming about cost plus but thats exactly the reason, businesses are firstly quantity not price adjusters. But your projecting the basic claim that construction is firstly adjusting price levels based on demand.

                  • Poission

                    Gib is an obvious example,with import substitution required.High overtime hours construction fabrication companies a high cost bubbles.

                    Building inflation at 18% is unsustainable,as was house inflation of 25%.mostly based on the wealth effect of half a trillion in housing revaluations,which will now reverse.

                    June 2020 1,227,900 ( T$)

                    December 2021 1,763,125

                    https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/statistics/series/economic-indicators/housing

                    • Nic the NZer

                      Maybe you might improve your first paragraph so it actually parses. But if you want to talk about Gib its obviously should be relevant that Gib has been an effective monopoly in NZ for which the country is now actually doing something to develop domestic alternatives. That is improving NZ resiliance to international construction industry shifts. As I said, cutting off demand to meet available supply will decrease our longer run capacity and resiliance.

                      Sustainability (of pricing) doesn't seem very relevant. This is because where building costs were ~2 years ago (when we weren't nearly so worried about capacity constraints), they have shifted by apparently 18%. They weren't exactly sustained either then, so much for sustainability.

                      Maybe a case could be made that presently elevated building costs will cause difficulties in future building levels meeting our requirements. But if thats the suggestion, slowing down building activities purchased now will start off behind and then only leave lower industry capacity later in our future. This seems kind of daft to me.

                  • Poission

                    The new Gib Factory opens in 2024.The building industry as well as the RBNZ says around 30k builds is the industry capacity.

                    The high cost of construction has embedded a large level of debt,which will be unsustainable,as we are price takers in the debt market.

                    The US lumber prices have decreased by 50% over the last 6 months as demand reduced on higher interest rates,which will reflect on house cost construction in the US.

                    Here after the GFC the cost of building decreased by 10% as margins were shaved and sharper pencils were the tool of choice.

                    Boom and bust building economies are not sustainable.

            • Ad 2.2.1.1.1.2

              An isolated trade reliant small state can only ever meet global demand and supply.

              We've never been a high growth high yield state.

              We're at labour constraint not production constraint.

              We do commodity food and tourism. Neither renowned here for value add. Gradual change off a low value-add floor is keeping us safe.

              • Poission

                The high yield state is expectations from asset appreciation,ie growth expectations such as in tech stocks trading at 40-50 times earnings.

                Anti fragile sectors such as food and energy are value stocks as they are required for the basic necessities.The labour constraint will lessen as real estate agents and mortgage brokers,return to the real economy.

      • Peter 2.2.2

        I thought NZ was the worst off place in the world and that's why everyone's leaving.

        Guess I should stop listening to the National people and stop reading a couple of those blog sites, gathering places of the feeble minded it seems.

    • DB Brown 2.3

      These fools clearly don't know what they're doing or talking about. Experts that fuck economies at whim, but are really children in charge of a speeding locomotive – they have no idea of what lever does what.

      Except of course stealing all the least well off homeowners life savings. Banks know exactly how to do that it's the formula playing out right now.

      Every now and then they shake the ladder, and all the lowest rungs fall back to earth.

      "Experts".

  3. joe90 3

    So if Covid infection is the indicator then where does that leave claims that the vaccine alone accounts for much of the excess?

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