Daily review 27/02/2023

9 comments on “Daily review 27/02/2023 ”

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1. Jilly Bee 1

   27 February 2023 at 8:18 pm

   Wow, Rob Campbell has lobbed a grenade into the works with his 'comments' about National's attitude to the water infrastructure debate. I'm saying to myself; 'go you good man', but I fear his days may well be numbered in his present role if the Nats and Act scream loud enough for long enough. I hope the PM and Minister of Health just has a quiet word in his ear and we can move on with the Health reset.

   https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/484947/high-profile-public-servant-rob-campbell-standing-by-criticism-of-national-over-water-infrastructure
   • bwaghorn 1.1

     27 February 2023 at 8:22 pm

     Surely act will defend his right to freedom of speech!!
     • Anne 1.1.1

       27 February 2023 at 11:12 pm

       I wonder whether someone from Labour or the Greens will have the guts to stand up in the House and express their dismay that ACT has not defended his right to "freedom of speech".
   • SPC 1.2

     28 February 2023 at 4:11 am

     It's all classic doublespeak.

     The advocates of free speech, the Taxpayers Union, does not just support the tradition of public servants being required to have no identifiable political opinion – it wants required resignation (well at least when the stated position does not align with that of the Taxpayer Union).

     https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Zealand_Taxpayers%27_Union

     https://mailchi.mp/c2cd343701f8/position-of-health-nz-chair-untenable

     And meanwhile their ideological brethren insist on a tolerance of difference of thought on GW.

     https://www.stuff.co.nz/opinion/131328117/damien-grant-why-we-need-to-stand-up-for-the-maureen-pughs-of-the-world?cid=app-android

     The Reserve Bank Board comprises nine members: three ex officio members – the Governor (who is Chair), the Deputy Governor (who is Deputy Chair) and the Secretary to the Treasury – and six non-executive members, who are appointed by the Treasurer.

     Anyone else recall Don Brash saying he thought that the unemployed should be paid less than the MW back in the 1990's?
2. arkie 2

   27 February 2023 at 8:52 pm

   https://twitter.com/NZGreens/status/1630036444021665792
   https://twitter.com/NZGreens/status/1630049131619319810

   A windfall tax is something to be considered:

   “A 10% levy on the banking sector’s record profits would raise over half a billion dollars which could be used to support people.

   “There are only political choices standing in the way of building the Aotearoa we need. Today the Government has made the wrong choice,” says Julie Anne Genter

   https://www.greens.org.nz/tax_the_banks
3. adam 3

   27 February 2023 at 9:07 pm

   Dirty politics is back!! Cam Slater has got money to fear monger again via just say no.

   Just say no to Cam, and tell him to crawl back down the hole he crawled out of.

   The tax payers union is on the whole Māori wards are unelected buzz.

   And last, but not least, ZB just got a free pass for putting lives in danger.

   Expect more lies and bullshit this election than any before.
4. weka 4

   27 February 2023 at 9:51 pm

   Can someone please explain in lay person terms what is going on here?

   https://twitter.com/AceSNZ/status/1630068810605813761?s=20
   • lprent 4.1

     27 February 2023 at 11:32 pm

     Looking at the two charts at a quick glance I’d say that the spiky one hasn’t factored in population increases. It is measuring percentage changes in the absolute death rate (without any baseline (GRRR)) compared to a arbitrary 0 point – and without series smoothing or cumulative smoothing. Basically a tech book example of how to completely lie with a graph.

     The other one has correctly measured it as a mortality rate per million of population and presumably factoring in demographic changes. That is the usual method.

     Why is population important?

     NZ had a influx of mostly citizens in 2020 to 2022. Stats Dept: December 2019 population estimates were 5,040,400, and December 2022 were 5,156,000 – ie we increased our population by 2.3%. BTW: If you looked further into the demographics, you’d probably find that we got a shift in demographics from that and the reduced immigration – bet it is towards more elderly.

     Why is demographic analysis important?

     NZ is also growing older and more likely to die. Usually excess mortality is computed against the population ages and gender. Basically old people die more frequently then younger people. Women usually die at older ages than men. Excess deaths means more than you’d expect in a population based on previous mortality rates once the population aging and gender differences are factored out.

     It is a cumulative mortality rate. In other words the lower mortality in 2020 weighs against the later rise.

     And then you’d have to start looking at sources of data… Too hard to read.

     But the spiky graph is a good example of how to lie with graphs.

     No population levels or demographic changes built in, so effectively it assumes that nothing has changed over the last 3 years apart from the death rate.

     My ageing body disagrees with that. My house buying didn’t get much cheaper despite the rapid building going on around me.

     That means that if they wanted to be accurate, then their baseline should have been rising through the 3 years to reflect population growth and an aging population. Obviously this was beyond their abilities.

     Plus they picked a completely arbitrary measurement.

     What is a say 30% rise on a mortality? If the normal mortality was 100 people in 5 million the 30/5 million = +too small to measure in percentage terms.

     If it were a 30% rise in a base mortality rate of 10000 people per million – then it is 5 x 3000 = +15000. That would be significant.

     Because Spider cats graph hasn’t defined the base mortality, so then the actual graphs is completely useless for analysing anything. Apart from proving that Spider cat is a complete bloody idiot or lying with silly graphs.

     If you want to look at the actual annual death rates per million they are roughly this (my right calcs – so don’t take them as gospel).

     stats says that in the year ended
     2018 33,225 deaths. 4,921,400 = 6751 / million
     2019 34,260 deaths. 5,040,400 = 6797 / million +46
     2020 32,613 deaths. 5,103,700 = 6390 / million -407
     2021 34,932 deaths. 5,116.400 = 6808 / million +418
     2022 38,574 deaths. 5,156,000 = 7481 / million +673

     So the increased deaths in 2022 from Covid (estimated at 2400 as the actual cause of death) are significant. But obviously was killing people who mostly going to die anyway. It is also likely that a number of the deaths in 2022 are people who’d have died because the border was opened. Letting the diseases that we missed while it was closed until early last year.

     I have had a lot of bloody irritating sickness bouts this last year. Still haven’t had covid according to my frequent use of tests. Nor has my partner.

     Anyway the point is that a 10.4% increase in mortality in 2022 and a nett increase of about 3800 has a large covid-19 component. But we’re dying from having an open border as well and contact with others. Look at 2020. Roughtly 6000 later than 2022 with a similar population.

     Plus of course, a spiky graph with no smoothing always looks way higher, peoples eyes are drawn to the top and they look at the ‘line’ of the highest spikes. Smoothing data in a time series or doing it as a cumulative increase is always more accurate getting rid of spurious ‘eye’ alarm. Again another way to lie with graphs.
5. tWiggle 5

   28 February 2023 at 7:58 am

   An interesting article attributing a large part of Australian inflation to companies sneakily expanding their margins in a complicated marketplace.

   Guardian Australia financial analysis of inflation drivers

   Supports a windfall tax as an excellent way to rein in greedy capitalists.

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