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Double Dipton’s double downgrade doubletalk

Written By: - Date published: 4:54 pm, October 22nd, 2011 - 42 comments
Categories: debt / deficit - Tags:

Bill English: “a change in the credit ratings could push interest rates up … about 0.1 percent.”
Nek minnit: Since the double downgrade, interest rates on new government bonds have risen by 0.2 per cent for bonds maturing in 2015 and 0.4 per cent for bonds maturing in 2023 … this will cost $100 to $150 million extra per year.

Debt Management Office data.

42 comments on “Double Dipton’s double downgrade doubletalk ”

  1. kbrown 1

    The man needs a break. Hawai’i ?

  2. RobM 2

    Look Audrey has written an opinion piece for NZ’s leading National Party newsletter and she says he’s the right man to be the right-hand man, so everything is going to be all right. Whatever happens we can rely on his southern stoicism to stare it down:

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/politics/news/article.cfm?c_id=280&objectid=10760816

    “National’s Southern Man has emerged from his first full term as Finance Minister as a dependable, safe pair of hands, having weathered a ministerial housing scandal early in his tenure.”

    . . .

    “Key’s inexperience turned out not to be a big disadvantage because he learned so quickly.

    But their talents still complement each other’s. Key is the out-there optimistic, socially liberal, rather poll-driven leader; English is the laconic, understated, socially conservative, intellectually robust deputy.”

    . . .

    “English is the one with the plans, the quiet reformer, who is steadily reshaping the public sector to make more room for the private sector, be it in the management of prisons, administration of social housing, or ownership of state assets.”
    . . .

    “John Key’s legacy to National has been his ability to deliver power through popular leadership. Bill English’s legacy will be in the way he has exercised power”

    And you can’t ask for fairer than that.

    • seeker 2.1

      Hooted at the “intellectually robust”. More like unoriginal yet cunning. Think Audrey has a soft spot for Bill.

    • marsman 2.2

      Audrey also thought Steven Joyce was a safe pair of hands on the Rena.

    • handle 2.3

      And they all get on really well, OK. Simon Power just felt like it was time to leave.

    • Draco T Bastard 2.4

      Whatever happens we can rely on his southern stoicism to stare it down:

      Southern Stoicism? First chance he got he moved north to Wellington. Obviously, not that stoic.

  3. randal 3

    the people of New Zealand know that this government had one and only one objective and that was to cash up the soe’s so they could stag their shares and piss off back to where they came from.
    fucking up the public service is incidental but fits with their policy of attacking anything that can be used to hold them to acount for their pelf.

    • Jimmy 3.1

      I wish that were the case, unfortunately so many are taken in by smile and nod Key that Nationals incompetence may not be punished come November 26th.

  4. Chris 4

    Young is sounds like she’s swallowed/regurgitated National’s PR narrative completely. Another Herald public relations wannabe.

  5. tsmithfield 5

    Entirely misleading.

    It is obvious that the longer the term, the greater the increase in rates. As per Eddies article:

    “Since the double downgrade, interest rates on new government bonds have risen by 0.2 per cent for bonds maturing in 2015 and 0.4 per cent for bonds maturing in 2023”

    But what about shorter term securities? If the difference in rate increase between 2015 and 2023 is 0.2%, it is quite likely that shorter term securities could well have risen in the vicinity of 1%, extrapolating backwards.

    All the government has to do is go short-term for awhile until our rating goes back up again. Should cost bugger all.

    • Colonial Viper 5.1

      All the government has to do is go short-term for awhile until our rating goes back up again. Should cost bugger all.

      Just in time for your brilliant strategy to run up against another global liquidity crunch.

      And you are clearly not familiar with the flattening yield curve since ‘Operation Twist’. Short term bonds are not much cheaper than long term bonds, if at all.

      • tsmithfield 5.1.1

        “Just in time for your brilliant strategy to run up against another global liquidity crunch.”

        Or hopefully we are in surplus by then and can repay out of cash.

        “And you are clearly not familiar with the flattening yield curve since ‘Operation Twist’. Short term bonds are not much cheaper than long term bonds, if at all.”

        Actually you are absolutely wrong on this point. The bond rates are shown at the bottom right hand corner. Notice the difference in rates. Three month at 0% through to 30 year at 3.26%. Even with operation twist there is quite a difference. In fact the longer term bond rates have been rising recently despite operation twist. So the increase in longer term rates on NZ borrowing might be more to do with a general increase in rates rather than a specific increase for NZ.

  6. Afewknowthetruth 6

    ‘Since the double downgrade, interest rates on new government bonds have risen by 0.2 per cent for bonds maturing in 2015 and 0.4 per cent for bonds maturing in 2023 …’

    What a laugh!

    Anyone with a brain that functions properly knows the system is very close to catastrophic failure, and that the catastrophic failure will occur well before 2020 and almost certainly before 2015.

    Keep buying the bits of almost worthless paper, that lose value by the day, whoever you are.

    Dumb-arses.

  7. Afewknowthetruth 7

    By the way, although TPTB are still managing to ‘kick the can down the road’, the ‘can’ is disintegrating rather quickly.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/new-greek-bailout-cash-comes-with-dire-warning-2373672.html

    The meeting scheduled for Sunday has now been deferred till Wednesday.

    Somethin’s burnin’ (apart from tyres, cars and shops in Athens).

    Coming to a country like your’s soon.

    • One Anonymous Bloke 7.1

      Catastrophic failure, you say? Oh damn, I was thinking of getting a hair cut.

      • Afewknowthetruth 7.1.1

        OAB

        Most of the people who continue to place their faith in the dying system will get a ‘hair cut’.

        • One Anonymous Bloke 7.1.1.1

          I’ll put my faith in the dyeing system then. I hear Cassandra swears by it.

  8. tsmithfield 8

    Cunliffe is either an idiot or being deliberately misleading.

    Interest rates rise and fall with the market. So, nothing can be read into nominal rate increases/decreases. What if the cost of borrowing had decreased? Could it then be claimed that the credit downgrade had reduced our borrowing costs?

    What English was meaning is that a downgrade means we end up paying 0.1% more than we otherwise would have, after general market movements have been discounted. The problem for Cunliffe is that he has not differentiated general market movements from the additional premium for the credit downgrade.

    • RedLogix 8.1

      The problem for Cunliffe is that he has not differentiated general market movements from the additional premium for the credit downgrade.

      And neither have you. On the other hand if you are going to argue that the credit downgrade had no effect, then what were Key and English smoking when they were boasting how their policies were all about avoiding a downgrade and the consequent rise in interest rates?

      Whatever has happened in the short-term, whether rates actually rose or fell due to some combination of the general market pressures and the downgrade… you have to expect that in the long-run a lower credit rating will result in higher interest rates. Otherwise what is the point of a rating system at all? (Something I’m sure AFKTT would have an opinion on, but that’s beside the point…:-)

  9. tsmithfield 9

    No-one is disputing that rates will increase in response to a downgrade. However, Cunliffe is making the claim that it is more than the 0.1% asserted by English. So it is up to Cunliffe to show that the rates he is pointing to is the result of the downgrade, not just general market movement.

    • RedLogix 9.1

      No-one is disputing that rates will increase in response to a downgrade.

      But now of course you want to hide it in the noise of ‘general market movements’. (Where have I seen that tactic before…mmmm?)

      Of course when Key and English were slashing public sector services using the justification that it was to ‘avoid a downgrade’… it was a big deal. Now it’s happened, and largely because it wasn’t public expenditure they’ve slashed but public sector tax income, it’s all of a sudden a minor thing that can be more or less ignored.

      But hey ts it’s a nice Sunday morning and there are a couple of big brownies lurking in the stream just over the back fence….

      • Colonial Viper 9.1.1

        you see its tsmithfield who is the moron here. He has forgotten about how economists view the markets as “rational” and “efficient” and how a decision like a credit downgrade affects every aspect of how market players treat our debt, whether to a lesser or greater degree.

        In other words, tsmithfield thinks you can piss into a pitcher of lemonade and still demonstrably “separate out the piss from the general lemonade”.

        Moron.

        • tsmithfield 9.1.1.1

          I need to point you both back to the link I gave yeseterday that CV obviously didn’t bother looking at.

          Notice the bottom right hand corner and the US bond rates. See there that their longer term bond rates (5 years plus) have been rising, and have been doing so for the last few weeks. This is despite the US being the world’s perceived safe haven and the Fed’s efforts through operation twist to bring down their longer term rates. Note that US bond rates actually fell for quite some time after their downgrade, because, despite the downgrade the US is perceived as being the ultimate safe haven because they can always pay their debt in the world’s reserve currency even if it means printing more dollars.

          Consequently, if interest rates are rising in the world’s safe haven, then it is conclusive evidence that the rate increases experienced by NZ are more to do with general market movements rather than our specific downgrade.

          If you can’t see this then I really can’t see any hope for you.

          • tc 9.1.1.1.1

            Another busy day trolling ahead for you.

            • tsmithfield 9.1.1.1.1.1

              That was a great contribution to the discussion. What that suggests to me is that you can’t actually come up with anything sensible to refute the points I have been making.

          • Draco T Bastard 9.1.1.1.2

            This is despite the US being the world’s perceived safe haven…

            Not according to the market. After an initial drop the NZ$ has been steadily rising against the US$ since the downgrade. It’s almost back to where it was before the downgrade.

            …world’s reserve currency even if it means printing more dollars.

            A fiat currency with a floating rate is not a reserve currency no matter how much the US (and it’s sycophants) wants to believe it is.

            • tsmithfield 9.1.1.1.2.1

              “Not according to the market. After an initial drop the NZ$ has been steadily rising against the US$ since the downgrade. It’s almost back to where it was before the downgrade.”

              Just think about what happens to the US dollar everytime there is some fear or another in the market. It goes up because every man and his dog is sinking their wealth into US treasury bonds which are perceived as the world’s safest haven. How do you think they can sell short-term bonds at zero percent yield otherwise as per the google finance link I pointed you to?

              “A fiat currency with a floating rate is not a reserve currency no matter how much the US (and it’s sycophants) wants to believe it is.”

              It might not always be that in the future. But that is how the world treats it now. See my point above.

              • ak

                Fair enough Smithy. So downgrades don’t hurt us much. So when English and Key said they do, they were lying through their teeth and scaremongering. Again. Thanks for that.

                • Colonial Viper

                  ts is a fucking amatuer at this game, he doesn’t even realise that there are 5 year US bonds maturing this week, next week and next month priced at different yields.

                  And that derivatives like credit default swaps are where the market prices risks today.

                  Like I said, ts is a fucking amatuer.

              • mik e

                tsm thats only because the US has printed more money recently making their dollar less valuable.Most economists agree that while the downgade may not have an immediate effect ever the longer term it will cost NewZealand

                • Colonial Viper

                  the issue is Key and English swearing black and blue that a credit downgrade would be a disaster, and when it happens to us on their watch due to their incompetence they shrug it off. I think the phrase lying hypocrites is accurate.

  10. Afewknowthetruth 10

    tsmithfield

    The whole purpose of a ratings downgrade is to provide a reason to extract more interest from the person/organisation/nation involved -so-called risk assessment.

    Your attempts to ‘prove’ otherwise really are pathetic.

    What is really interesting is that the last time a National government got NZ into a really deep hole (Muldoon) mortgage interest rates were 11%, then 12%, 14%, 16%, 18%, 20%, and higher risk loans attracted up to 28% interest.

    With the global economy now close to the point of collapse with interest rates in many nations at historically low levels (1% or less), it is clear that significant elevation of interest rates would cause an immediate economic implosion for most countries.

    This discussion is just another example of debating how many angels will fit on a pinhead, since the energy system that supports everything in industrialised societies is on the way down and there is nothing that can be done to prevent the inevitable collapse (though last acts of desperation -fracking, deep-seas drilling, tar sands etc. will undoubtedly be applied in futile attempts to prop up present arrangements a little longer).

    Oh, and whatever cheap energy we DO have will be squandered on idiotic activites, such as RWC, which provides extremely profitable rorts for opportunists and corporations.

    • One Anonymous Bloke 10.1

      What, we have to give up rugby as well as money and trade? I see what you mean – that is a catastrophe alright!

      • Afewknowthetruth 10.1.1

        OAB

        You don’t have to give up PLAYING rugby. Just give up the corporatised, money-scam version that has been peddled for the past couple of decades.

        • One Anonymous Bloke 10.1.1.1

          So you’re saying elite sports won’t be a way to earn a living any more? Will that just apply to rugby or will it encompass other sports as well? What about sponsorship deals for individual players? Phew! I can see a few problems developing with getting people to accept your new world order, but I expect you know best.
          Yay we won!

          • Afewknowthetruth 10.1.1.1.1

            OAB

            ‘I can see a few problems developing with getting people to accept your new world order, but I expect you know best.’

            All truth pases through three stages.

            At first it is ignored/ridiculed.

            Then it is opposed.

            Finally it is accepted as self-evident. (Schopenhauer)

  11. tc 11

    To TS and all the RWNJ’S it’s all about living in the past and attempting to perpetuate a broken system that continues to serve them well as long as their hollow idols stay in power.

    The thought of a new way or order terrifies them.

    • Draco T Bastard 11.1

      +1

      The one thing that truly does terrify RWNJs is change – especially when that change looks like it will take away the legalised theft that become the norm over the last couple of centuries.

  12. Afewknowthetruth 12

    DTB

    I agree with the sentiment but would like to point out that the legalised theft system has been the norm in the English-speaking world since the time of the Norman invasion (1066).

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