The last polls are out, except for Roy Morgan, which will presumably be out later today. Here are how the blocs sit (assuming 7 seats for the Maori Party. If they get just 4, the majority to govern will drop by 2 and the Left bloc will drop 3, giving bigger leads to the Right):
National’s bloc is ahead in all of them but only by a nose in most. You have to remember that the polls generally give the Right a couple of percent extra; a shift of Right -2 and Left +2 would make all the difference. There is also a big question over whether or not the damage these polls show Labour has taken over the H-fee will translate into actual lost votes. If Labour can get out the vote, Maori split their votes, and New Zealand First voters go to Labour or the Greens, the Left can still win this. It will be interesting to see what the Roy Morgan says.