Down to the wire

Written By: - Date published: 7:09 am, November 7th, 2008 - 30 comments
Categories: election 2008, polls - Tags:

The last polls are out, except for Roy Morgan, which will presumably be out later today. Here are how the blocs sit (assuming 7 seats for the Maori Party. If they get just 4, the majority to govern will drop by 2 and the Left bloc will drop 3, giving bigger leads to the Right):

Heralddigi

Colmar

TV3

Fairfax

National’s bloc is ahead in all of them but only by a nose in most. You have to remember that the polls generally give the Right a couple of percent extra; a shift of Right -2 and Left +2 would make all the difference. There is also a big question over whether or not the damage these polls show Labour has taken over the H-fee will translate into actual lost votes. If Labour can get out the vote, Maori split their votes, and New Zealand First voters go to Labour or the Greens, the Left can still win this. It will be interesting to see what the Roy Morgan says.

30 comments on “Down to the wire”

  1. Steve – why are you giving the Maori Party seven horse in all four scenarios, when the polls have been tipping five at best? A simple mistake, or obfuscation?

    [I see them getting all seven. It’s as valid a prediction as 4, which all the other polls use. SP]

  2. higherstandard 2

    If the election was under the old system it would have been all over some time ago.

    I think the only things that you can say with some confidence prior to the result of the election is that Labour support appears to have taken a hit, green support has firmed and that National will have the single largest share of the vote.

    ….. oh and that Mike Williams is a buffoon.

  3. out of bed 3

    I still see HC stitching a Gov together
    looking at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_New_Zealand_general_election,_2008
    National are trending down but so then so is Labour but not at such a rate
    The Greens are really on the up
    It will be nail-bitingly close yes, I agree but I will still call it for the Left..
    It will probably come down to to how many seats the MP gets
    4 ? not so good for the left but 5 or over no worries
    Got to go and campaign now
    Good luck

  4. Barb 4

    How is this ‘idiot’ party managing to do this? One could say the National Party campaign has been funded by the right-wing media!

  5. Monty 5

    You fools – the Maori Party have not declared who they will go with – and there is the strongest possibility that they will have no option but to go with the Nats if they want to be part of a government and have the ability to influence policy for the betterment of their people.

    Looks like Clark will be clearing out her office on Monday morning after discovering there really are fairies at the bottom of the garden.

    I better run and put another bottle of Champagne on ice.

  6. Lampie 6

    This seems to be very similar to the last election and look what happened. I agree with Winston, no polls within a month of the election.

  7. gomango 7

    I think your analysis is slightly wrong on two counts:

    1. MP will definitely win 4 seats, definitely not win 1, and the other two look unlikely, so 4 seats with only a 1 or 2 seat overhang (as they are targeting part vote as well this year) is the most likely outcome.

    2. Hard to see the MP going into formal alliance with either party. MP isn’t stupid and they know will have way more power, and a much stronger ability to extract meaningful deals by sitting outside government and doing deals in return for support or abstention. They are not a party of the left, they are a party of Maori. Subtle difference but thats their mandate, and you know their leadership trusts Labour only about as much they trust National.

  8. higherstandard 8

    Barb

    ‘How is this ‘idiot’ party managing to do this? ”

    Because the people appear to prefer then to the “buffoon” party.

    “One could say the National Party campaign has been funded by the right-wing media!”

    Not really have a read of this.

    http://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2008/11/new-zealands-media-coverage-of-the-2008-election-study-preliminary-results.pdf

  9. Carol 9

    Well it looks like a nail-iter to me. I don’t know how anyone can confidentally predict the outcome because we don’t yet know how accurate the polls are. They do show some consistent trends. One seems to be a bit of a slide downwards in the Nat percentage (and Labour’s) in more than one poll & a rise in The Greens.

    I’m working for the next couple of days. Thanks to all the left campaigners on the ground. Keep up the good work.

  10. dave 10

    It will be interesting to see what the Roy Morgan says.

    Irrelevant. Tomorrows polling day. That’s what counts – BTW your analysis of the Maori party is shonky, and your prediction futile. Stupid, actually. Really ignorant.

  11. Scribe 11

    It will be interesting to see what the Roy Morgan says.

    Why? Because that one poll would negate the four other polls that forecast doom for the Left?

  12. In Holland no polling for two weeks before the elections If I recall correctly.

  13. higherstandard 13

    Sounds like an eminently sensible policy Eve.

  14. Akldnut 14

    I agree with Winnie and lampie.” No polls one month out from the election.”
    Too many voters are influenced by them definately giving an advntage to the direction they may lean.

    It is definately an uneven playing field

  15. randal 15

    new zealand is a “KIDDY” country where everyone has been fully infantilised and everybody thinks they know more than anyone else and because they have “CHOICES” then they can do what they want.

  16. Steve – you are distorting the actual polls. Espiner G said last night that even with the support of the Maori Party, Clark could only manage 58 seats. You show 63. Please explain!

    [I’ve assumed 7 MP seats, Guyon only 4, also the fractions that he has access to and I don’t might make a difference of one seat from Left to Right. SP]

  17. dave 17

    He cant.
    captcha: straws clasping

  18. Julie 18

    I too think it’s pretty unlikely the Maori Party will take 7 seats, 4 seems certain, 5 maybe. I guess we’ll all know tomorrow! Who would have thought a year ago that we’d end up in a situation where the overhang in the Maori seats would be so pivotal?

  19. j 19

    “new zealand is a “KIDDY’ country where everyone has been fully infantilised and everybody thinks they know more than anyone else and because they have “CHOICES’ then they can do what they want.”

    Sorry I just couldn’t keep silent any longer.

    Randel, you are an utter moron.

    Your comments have breached a level of retardedness I never thought possible.

    PS Stock up on the whisky, you may well need it.

  20. Pat 20

    SP seems to think the brown horses are locked up in the stable, but the last time I looked they were running free on the range.

  21. randal 21

    inventory2…epsinner is a little tory toad and will make stuff up if it helps his crummy pals.
    you might think he is legit but there is something very wrong about his person and it will be exposed after the election

  22. higherstandard 22

    Randal are you saying that Guyon is a Blue green or a Green blue ?

  23. Ianmac 23

    Hard to tell why the righties would bother with their rather frantic postings on this site. You would think that they would be writing as quietly confident of a landslide for National. Of course it seems unlikely that the Centre left will be buried in a pile of rubble. It is also possible that Labour left could squeak past. It would make it hard to govern in the Economic troubles ahead with a small majority, but so too for poor old John with an old team and having Roger Douglas and Wodney to keep in check!!! Wow.

  24. C-B has consistently given National 6-8 points more than they actually win in an election.

    Last time ’round, the Herald-Digipoll was very close to the final outcome, but since then they appear to have begun copying the sampling methods of Colmar-Brunton, losing the variation they used to show with respect to that poll and becoming more and more a mirror of the C-B result.

    Fairfax also appear to be using the same sampling methods as C-B, coming up with the same results.

    The weight of all three would distort any poll averages or “poll of polls”.

    The Roy Morgan poll stands almost alone as varying from the other three and has the most consistent track record for results reflecting the election outcomes….though it tends to over-rate the minor parties. It will be interesting to see where Morgan puts the Greens who are at 5.8% in the H-D poll and 9% in the Fairfax and C-B polls. If the past is anything to go by, Morgan may well have them on something like 11%…..or the Green number would be running counter to the usual bias in past Morgan polls.

    I will be interested in the Morgan poll as it will be the most accurate indicator, in my view, of the shape of the actual election outcome. But it is still only a poll….and they clearly do have their limitations.

  25. Vinsin 25

    Anyone remember the last election? Wasn’t brash ahead in every poll by about 6 percent. Funny how that turned out, aye? Does anyone else remember the media saying, ‘how could the polls be so wrong,’ it’s silly to pay too much attention to the polls, all they end up meaning is get out there and vote.

  26. Lampie 26

    Another advantage I feel that with no polls within a month is we get even more debate, more discussion with policies.

  27. randal 27

    ianmac…you are right…the right is FRANTIC.
    they are like chooks running round with their heads cut off
    they know they are going down the dunny and no amount of money or creepy little stooges employed by the networks to promote their line is going to do any good
    this is the best laugh anyone has had for a long time

  28. Pixie 28

    What is slightly irritating is that while we have polls ad nauseam on the party votes, we get very little indication about how things are trending in some of the key electorates.

    The same thing happened last year, when Rodney appeared to come out of the blue to win Epsom.

    So, are there going to be any pivotal surprises in the Electorates this time round and, if so, where?

    For example, there is quite a bit of speculation about the possibility of Ron Mark winning Rimutaka, but how likely is that really?

  29. gingercrush 29

    The difference between the polls this year and 2005 is that all polls are roughly showing the same thing. While in 2005 polls were literally all over the place. As I recall TV3 accurately had Labour up while TVNZ’s Colmar Brunton poll had National in the lead. This time round, there has been less polls but all polls have been tracking the same.

    Pixie must agree with you in regards to wanting more electorate polls. The major cities in particular have been lacking. Though the regions have been better. With good proper polls taken in Southland, Invercargill, Nelson and the West Coast region. The North Island however has been sorely missing.

  30. Scribe 30

    Here’s the reasonably good news you guys were waiting for: http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2008/4334/

    This result would make for an interesting few days…

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