Dr Shane is in trouble
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- Date published:
11:51 am, October 18th, 2020 - 27 comments
Categories: election 2020, national, nick smith -
Tags: shane reti
I don’t think the bad news is over for National. I will go out on two limbs here and predict that they will lose Whangarei and they will also lose entitlement to a seat. Maureen Pugh’s career will be over. And Nick Smith will also be gone. He should have campaigned harder for the party vote.
Reti will be back but via the list.
Why do I say this?
Whangarei is on a knife edge with Reti ahead by only 162 votes.
Special votes tend to break left. Younger people and poorer people tend to enroll later or need special votes because they move around more frequently.
Last election Reti’s share of the electorate vote faded slightly from 46.8% to 45.2% once special votes were counted. The Labour candidate’s share went up from 18.4% to 18.8%. A similar movement this time will cause Reti’s lead to evaporate.
Similarly with the party vote the tendency is for Labour’s share to improve and National’s to go down. Last time Labour’s went up from 35.8% to 36.9% and National’s went down from 46% to 44.4%.
I have made a few guesses and put the figure through the Electoral Commission formula and the result would be that National loses a seat.
I might be wrong. But I suspect there is even more misery on the way for the National Party.
27 comments on “Dr Shane is in trouble ”
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- Release: Labour welcomes EU free trade agreementThe New Zealand Labour Party welcomes the entering into force of the European Union and New Zealand free trade agreement. This agreement opens the door for a huge increase in trade opportunities with a market of 450 million people who are high value discerning consumers of New Zealand goods and ...2 weeks ago
- Surprise: Landlord tax cuts don’t trickle downThe Green Party is renewing its call for rent controls following reports of rental prices hitting an all-time high. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: $1.7b for no increase in access to medicineThe National-led Government continues its fiscal jiggery pokery with its Pharmac announcement today, Labour Health spokesperson Ayesha Verrall says. “The government has increased Pharmac funding but conceded it will only make minimal increases in access to medicine”, said Ayesha Verrall “This is far from the bold promises made to fund ...2 weeks ago
- Release: National should heed Tribunal warning and scrap coalition commitment with ACTThis afternoon’s interim Waitangi Tribunal report must be taken seriously as it affects our most vulnerable children, Labour children’s spokesperson Willow-Jean Prime. ...2 weeks ago
- Release: More accountability for preventable workplace deaths this Workers’ Memorial DayLabour is calling for more accountability for preventable workplace deaths because everybody who goes to work deserves to come home safely. ...2 weeks ago
- Gaza: Aotearoa Must Support Independent Investigation into Mass GravesTe Pāti Māori are demanding the New Zealand Government support an international independent investigation into mass graves that have been uncovered at two hospitals on the Gaza strip, following weeks of assault by Israeli troops. Among the 392 bodies that have been recovered, are children and elderly civilians. Many of ...3 weeks ago
- Joint statement of Christopher Luxon and Emmanuel Macron: Launch of the Christchurch Call Foundation
New Zealand Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and President Emmanuel Macron of France today announced a new non-governmental organisation, the Christchurch Call Foundation, to coordinate the Christchurch Call’s work to eliminate terrorist and violent extremist content online. This change gives effect to the outcomes of the November 2023 Call Leaders’ Summit, ...16 hours ago - Panel announced for review into disability servicesDistinguished public servant and former diplomat Sir Maarten Wevers will lead the independent review into the disability support services administered by the Ministry of Disabled People – Whaikaha. The review was announced by Disability Issues Minister Louise Upston a fortnight ago to examine what could be done to strengthen the ...18 hours ago
- Minister welcomes Police gang unitToday’s announcement by Police Commissioner Andrew Coster of a National Gang Unit and district Gang Disruption Units will help deliver on the coalition Government’s pledge to restore law and order and crack down on criminal gangs, Police Minister Mark Mitchell says. “The National Gang Unit and Gang Disruption Units will ...18 hours ago
- New Zealand expresses regret at North Korea’s aggressive rhetoricForeign Minister Winston Peters has today expressed regret at North Korea’s aggressive rhetoric towards New Zealand and its international partners. “New Zealand proudly stands with the international community in upholding the rules-based order through its monitoring and surveillance deployments, which it has been regularly doing alongside partners since 2018,” Mr ...18 hours ago
- New Chief of Defence Force appointedAir Vice-Marshal Tony Davies MNZM is the new Chief of Defence Force, Defence Minister Judith Collins announced today. The Chief of Defence Force commands the Navy, Army and Air Force and is the principal military advisor to the Defence Minister and other Ministers with relevant portfolio responsibilities in the defence ...18 hours ago
- Government puts children first by repealing 7AALegislation to repeal section 7AA of the Oranga Tamariki Act has been introduced to Parliament. The Bill’s introduction reaffirms the Coalition Government’s commitment to the safety of children in care, says Minister for Children, Karen Chhour. “While section 7AA was introduced with good intentions, it creates a conflict for Oranga ...20 hours ago
- Defence Minister to meet counterparts in UK, ItalyDefence Minister Judith Collins will this week travel to the UK and Italy to meet with her defence counterparts, and to attend Battles of Cassino commemorations. “I am humbled to be able to represent the New Zealand Government in Italy at the commemorations for the 80th anniversary of what was ...20 hours ago
- Charter schools to lift educational outcomesThe upcoming Budget will include funding for up to 50 charter schools to help lift declining educational performance, Associate Education Minister David Seymour announced today. $153 million in new funding will be provided over four years to establish and operate up to 15 new charter schools and convert 35 state ...21 hours ago
- COVID-19 Inquiry terms of reference consultation results received“The results of the public consultation on the terms of reference for the Royal Commission into COVID-19 Lessons has now been received, with results indicating over 13,000 submissions were made from members of the public,” Internal Affairs Minister Brooke van Velden says. “We heard feedback about the extended lockdowns in ...1 day ago
- The Pacific family of nations – the changing security outlookForeign Minister, Defence Minister, other Members of Parliament Acting Chief of Defence Force, Secretary of Defence Distinguished Guests Defence and Diplomatic Colleagues Ladies and Gentlemen, Good afternoon, tēna koutou, apinun tru It’s a pleasure to be back in Port Moresby today, and to speak here at the Kumul Leadership ...1 day ago
- NZ and Papua New Guinea to work more closely togetherHealth, infrastructure, renewable energy, and stability are among the themes of the current visit to Papua New Guinea by a New Zealand political delegation, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says. “Papua New Guinea carries serious weight in the Pacific, and New Zealand deeply values our relationship with it,” Mr Peters ...2 days ago
- Driving ahead with Roads of Regional SignificanceThe coalition Government is launching Roads of Regional Significance to sit alongside Roads of National Significance as part of its plan to deliver priority roading projects across the country, Transport Minister Simeon Brown says. “The Roads of National Significance (RoNS) built by the previous National Government are some of New Zealand’s ...2 days ago
- New Zealand congratulates new Solomon Islands governmentA high-level New Zealand political delegation in Honiara today congratulated the new Government of Solomon Islands, led by Jeremiah Manele, on taking office. “We are privileged to meet the new Prime Minister and members of his Cabinet during his government’s first ten days in office,” Deputy Prime Minister and ...2 days ago
- New Zealand supports UN Palestine resolutionNew Zealand voted in favour of a resolution broadening Palestine’s participation at the United Nations General Assembly overnight, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says. “The resolution enhances the rights of Palestine to participate in the work of the UN General Assembly while stopping short of admitting Palestine as a full ...4 days ago
- Speech to the 2024 Infrastructure SymposiumIntroduction Good morning. It’s a great privilege to be here at the 2024 Infrastructure Symposium. I was extremely happy when the Prime Minister asked me to be his Minister for Infrastructure. It is one of the great barriers holding the New Zealand economy back from achieving its potential. Building high ...5 days ago
- $571 million for Defence pay and projectsDefence Minister Judith Collins today announced the upcoming Budget will include new funding of $571 million for Defence Force pay and projects. “Our servicemen and women do New Zealand proud throughout the world and this funding will help ensure we retain their services and expertise as we navigate an increasingly ...5 days ago
- Climate change – mitigating the risks and costsNew Zealand’s ability to cope with climate change will be strengthened as part of the Government’s focus to build resilience as we rebuild the economy, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts says. “An enduring and long-term approach is needed to provide New Zealanders and the economy with certainty as the climate ...5 days ago
- Getting new job seekers on the pathway to workJobseeker beneficiaries who have work obligations must now meet with MSD within two weeks of their benefit starting to determine their next step towards finding a job, Social Development and Employment Minister Louise Upston says. “A key part of the coalition Government’s plan to have 50,000 fewer people on Jobseeker ...6 days ago
- Accelerating Social InvestmentA new standalone Social Investment Agency will power-up the social investment approach, driving positive change for our most vulnerable New Zealanders, Social Investment Minister Nicola Willis says. “Despite the Government currently investing more than $70 billion every year into social services, we are not seeing the outcomes we want for ...6 days ago
- Getting Back on TrackCheck against delivery Good morning. It is a pleasure to be with you to outline the Coalition Government’s approach to our first Budget. Thank you Mark Skelly, President of the Hutt Valley Chamber of Commerce, together with your Board and team, for hosting me. I’d like to acknowledge His Worship ...6 days ago
- NZ – European Union ties more critical than everYour Excellency Ambassador Meredith, Members of the Diplomatic Corps and Ambassadors from European Union Member States, Ministerial colleagues, Members of Parliament, and other distinguished guests, Thank you everyone for joining us. Ladies and gentlemen - In diplomacy, we often speak of ‘close’ and ‘long-standing’ relations. ...6 days ago
- Therapeutic Products Act to be repealedThe Therapeutic Products Act (TPA) will be repealed this year so that a better regime can be put in place to provide New Zealanders safe and timely access to medicines, medical devices and health products, Associate Health Minister Casey Costello announced today. “The medicines and products we are talking about ...7 days ago
- Decisions on Wellington City Council’s District PlanThe Minister Responsible for RMA Reform, Chris Bishop, today released his decision on twenty recommendations referred to him by the Wellington City Council relating to its Intensification Planning Instrument, after the Council rejected those recommendations of the Independent Hearings Panel and made alternative recommendations. “Wellington notified its District Plan on ...7 days ago
- Rape Awareness Week: Government committed to action on sexual violenceRape Awareness Week (6-10 May) is an important opportunity to acknowledge the continued effort required by government and communities to ensure that all New Zealanders can live free from violence, say Ministers Karen Chhour and Louise Upston. “With 1 in 3 women and 1 in 8 men experiencing sexual violence ...7 days ago
- Smarter lunch programme feeds more, costs lessAssociate Education Minister David Seymour has today announced that the Government will be delivering a more efficient Healthy School Lunches Programme, saving taxpayers approximately $107 million a year compared to how Labour funded it, by embracing innovation and commercial expertise. “We are delivering on our commitment to treat taxpayers’ money ...7 days ago
- Report provides insights into marine recoveryNew research on the impacts of extreme weather on coastal marine habitats in Tairāwhiti and Hawke’s Bay will help fishery managers plan for and respond to any future events, Oceans and Fisheries Minister Shane Jones says. A report released today on research by Niwa on behalf of Fisheries New Zealand ...7 days ago
- NZ to send political delegation to the PacificDeputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Winston Peters will lead a broad political delegation on a five-stop Pacific tour next week to strengthen New Zealand’s engagement with the region. The delegation will visit Solomon Islands, Papua New Guinea, Vanuatu, New Caledonia, and Tuvalu. “New Zealand has deep and ...7 days ago
- Low gas production threatens energy securityThere has been a material decline in gas production according to figures released today by the Gas Industry Co. Figures released by the Gas Industry Company show that there was a 12.5 per cent reduction in gas production during 2023, and a 27.8 per cent reduction in gas production in the ...1 week ago
- Defence industry talent, commitment recognisedDefence Minister Judith Collins tonight announced the recipients of the Minister of Defence Awards of Excellence for Industry, saying they all contribute to New Zealanders’ security and wellbeing. “Congratulations to this year’s recipients, whose innovative products and services play a critical role in the delivery of New Zealand’s defence capabilities, ...1 week ago
- Speech to the Minister of Defence Awards of Excellence for IndustryWelcome to you all - it is a pleasure to be here this evening.I would like to start by thanking Greg Lowe, Chair of the New Zealand Defence Industry Advisory Council, for co-hosting this reception with me. This evening is about recognising businesses from across New Zealand and overseas who in ...1 week ago
- Speech to the Sixth Annual New Zealand Government Data SummitIt is a pleasure to be speaking to you as the Minister for Digitising Government. I would like to thank Akolade for the invitation to address this Summit, and to acknowledge the great effort you are making to grow New Zealand’s digital future. Today, we stand at the cusp of ...1 week ago
- Ceasefire agreement needed now: PetersNew Zealand is urging both Israel and Hamas to agree to an immediate ceasefire to avoid the further humanitarian catastrophe that military action in Rafah would unleash, Foreign Minister Winston Peters says. “The immense suffering in Gaza cannot be allowed to worsen further. Both sides have a responsibility to ...1 week ago
- Daily school attendance data now availableA new online data dashboard released today as part of the Government’s school attendance action plan makes more timely daily attendance data available to the public and parents, says Associate Education Minister David Seymour. The interactive dashboard will be updated once a week to show a national average of how ...1 week ago
- Ambassador to United States appointedForeign Minister Winston Peters has announced Rosemary Banks will be New Zealand’s next Ambassador to the United States of America. “Our relationship with the United States is crucial for New Zealand in strategic, security and economic terms,” Mr Peters says. “New Zealand and the United States have a ...1 week ago
- New permit proposed for recreational gold miningThe Government is considering creating a new tier of minerals permitting that will make it easier for hobby miners to prospect for gold. “New Zealand was built on gold, it’s in our DNA. Our gold deposits, particularly in regions such as Otago and the West Coast have always attracted fortune-hunters. ...1 week ago
- NZ and the UAE launch FTA negotiationsMinister for Trade Todd McClay today announced that New Zealand and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) will commence negotiations on a free trade agreement (FTA). Minister McClay met with his counterpart UAE Trade Minister Dr Thani bin Ahmed Al Zeyoudi in Dubai, where they announced the launch of negotiations on a ...1 week ago
- New Zealand Sign Language Week an opportunity for anyone to signNew Zealand Sign Language Week is an excellent opportunity for all Kiwis to give the language a go, Disabilities Issues Minister Louise Upston says. This week (May 6 to 12) is New Zealand Sign Language (NZSL) Week. The theme is “an Aotearoa where anyone can sign anywhere” and aims to ...1 week ago
- Next stop NASA for New Zealand studentsSix tertiary students have been selected to work on NASA projects in the US through a New Zealand Space Scholarship, Space Minister Judith Collins announced today. “This is a fantastic opportunity for these talented students. They will undertake internships at NASA’s Ames Research Center or its Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), where ...1 week ago
- $1.9 billion investment to keep NZ safe from crimeNew Zealanders will be safer because of a $1.9 billion investment in more frontline Corrections officers, more support for offenders to turn away from crime, and more prison capacity, Corrections Minister Mark Mitchell says. “Our Government said we would crack down on crime. We promised to restore law and order, ...1 week ago
- OECD reinforces need to control spendingThe OECD’s latest report on New Zealand reinforces the importance of bringing Government spending under control, Finance Minister Nicola Willis says. The OECD conducts country surveys every two years to review its members’ economic policies. The 2024 New Zealand survey was presented in Wellington today by OECD Chief Economist Clare Lombardelli. ...1 week ago
- British High Commissioner Speech To The NZIIA: In An Unstable World, Standing With Our Friends Is Ne...
This decade is becoming increasingly characterised by accelerating instability and standing with our friends is needed now more than ever. ...25 mins ago - The Reserve Bank’s double-pronged cash plan
What happens when cash is king – and then your bank leaves. A businessman in a town that hasn’t had a bank for three years says the Reserve Bank’s plans to put more cash in the hands of its people and introduce digital cash could save hours of time. John ...44 mins ago - Daily crossword, Wednesday 15 MayThe post Daily crossword, Wednesday 15 May appeared first on Newsroom. ...44 mins ago
- Taskforce disestablishment a setback for pay equity claims – employersEmployers in the funded NGO sector say the goal of reaching pay parity with the public service is now further away The post Taskforce disestablishment a setback for pay equity claims – employers appeared first on Newsroom. ...44 mins ago
- Ockhams: Catton wins People’s ChoiceThe people have spoken, in their hundreds. Birnam Wood by Eleanor Catton has been overwhelmingly voted the favourite New Zealand book of 2023 as nominated by ReadingRoom readers. The vote can informally be regarded as the People’s Choice award – ahead of tonight’s Ockham book awards, where Catton’s novel is competing ...44 mins ago
- Resolving funding block only way forward for infrastructureOpinion: The pressure of funding the infrastructure deficit must be reduced or at least shared by central government The post Resolving funding block only way forward for infrastructure appeared first on Newsroom. ...44 mins ago
- Libraries covering a third of NZ to migrate data to AustraliaWhy your library might be shifting its information to Australian data centres, and whether experts think that’s a problem The post Libraries covering a third of NZ to migrate data to Australia appeared first on Newsroom. ...44 mins ago
- Transpower takes blame for Simeon Brown’s ‘misleading’ chartThe energy minister said there were no low power supply notices issued before 2019, but that’s because the system was only introduced that year The post Transpower takes blame for Simeon Brown’s ‘misleading’ chart appeared first on Newsroom. ...44 mins ago
- Govt reviewing ‘counterintuitive’ fishing permits for biosecurity zoneDespite the $11m invested in eradication of exotic caulerpa, commercial crayfish permits were issued for an impacted area The post Govt reviewing ‘counterintuitive’ fishing permits for biosecurity zone appeared first on Newsroom. ...44 mins ago
- Newsroom daily quiz, Wednesday 15 MayLoading…(function(i,s,o,g,r,a,m){var ql=document.querySelectorAll('A,DIV,A[data-quiz],DIV[data-quiz]'); if(ql){if(ql.length){for(var k=0;k<ql.length;k++){ql[k].id='quiz-embed-'+k;ql[k].href="javascript:var i=document.getElementById('quiz-embed-"+k+"');try{qz.startQuiz(i)}catch(e){i.start=1;i.style.cursor='wait';i.style.opacity='0.5'};void(0);"}}};i['QP']=r;i[r]=i[r]||function(){(i[r].q=i[r].q||[]).push(arguments)},i[r].l=1*new Date();a=s.createElement(o),m=s.getElementsByTagName(o)[0];a.async=1;a.src=g;m.parentNode.insertBefore(a,m)})(window,document,'script','https://take.quiz-maker.com/3012/CDN/quiz-embed-v1.js','qp'); Got a good quiz question? Send Newsroom your questions. The post Newsroom daily quiz, Wednesday 15 May appeared first on Newsroom. ...44 mins ago
- Former Kiwi MPs’ names aired in Hong Kong security trialThe controversial national security trial of a Hong Kong newspaper founder has touched on the work of former Kiwi MPs The post Former Kiwi MPs’ names aired in Hong Kong security trial appeared first on Newsroom. ...44 mins ago
- Doubts about value, results from charter schools – education figures
Reintroduced charter schools will be tightly monitored, but a lack of transparency in reporting was a key criticism they faced last time around. ...7 hours ago - At a glance: the 2024 federal budget split four ways
Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Matt Garrow, Editorial Web Developer The government has handed down its budget for 2024–25. It’s delivered a $9.3 billion surplus for the financial year just about to finish but is forecasting a $28.3 billion deficit for next year. Here’s the key points: ...7 hours ago - View from The Hill: What the Reserve Bank thinks of Chalmers’ budget will be nearly as important a...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra Jim Chalmers has produced a benign third budget aimed at soothing hard-pressed voters agitated about their high cost of living and punishing interest rates. At the same time he has walked a tightrope, trying ...7 hours ago
- Relief on energy bills for all in a federal budget that bets on lower inflationSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle Grattan, Professorial Fellow, University of Canberra Wes Mountain/The Conversation, CC BY-ND A $300 energy rebate for all households from July 1 and a 10% increase in Commonwealth Rent Assistance are key measures in a budget targeting cost-of-living relief that put ...7 hours ago
- Budget 2024: Chalmers fights inflation, will it be enough for a rate cut?Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Hawkins, Senior Lecturer, Canberra School of Politics, Economics and Society, University of Canberra Treasurer Jim Chalmers promised an “inflation-fighting and future-making budget” and he has delivered by introducing measures aimed at directly bringing down inflation. Combined, his A$300-per-household energy rebate and ...7 hours ago
- Budget 2024: As Chalmers fights inflation, will it be enough for a rate cut?Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By John Hawkins, Senior Lecturer, Canberra School of Politics, Economics and Society, University of Canberra Treasurer Jim Chalmers promised an “inflation-fighting and future-making budget” and he has delivered by introducing measures aimed at directly bringing down inflation. Combined, his A$300-per-household energy rebate and ...8 hours ago
- Chalmers is bitten by the giveaway bug in a budget that contains good news for almost everyoneSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Stephen Bartos, Professor of Economics, University of Canberra Treasurer Jim Chalmers has been bitten by the giveaway bug. This budget contains not only the well-foreshadowed tax cuts for all taxpayers, but a range of new spending measures in health, education, infrastructure, aged ...8 hours ago
- Curfew in New Caledonia after Kanak riots over French voting change planBy Stephen Wright and Stefan Armbruster of BenarNews French authorities have imposed a curfew on New Caledonia’s capital Nouméa and banned public gatherings after supporters of the Pacific territory’s independence movement blocked roads, set fire to buildings and clashed with security forces. Tensions in New Caledonia have been inflamed by ...8 hours ago
- Gang unit will disproportionately affect Māori and Pasifika, Te Pāti Māori sayAmid criticism from opposition parties, a gang expert says it focuses on an area of political and public worry. ...9 hours ago
- Sir Maarten Wevers to lead Ministry for Disabled People reviewThe review will investigate how to keep disability support services funded by the ministry going in the long-term. ...9 hours ago
- David McBride goes to prison – and Australian democracy takes a hitSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Peter Greste, Professor of Journalism and Communications, Macquarie University Governments and their agencies wield awesome power. At times, it is quite literally the power over life and death. That is why in any functioning democracy, we have robust checks and balances designed ...9 hours ago
- Longer appointments are just the start of tackling the gender pain gap. Here are 4 more things we ca...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Michelle O’Shea, Senior Lecturer, School of Business, Western Sydney University PeopleImages.com – Yuri A/Shutterstock Ahead of today’s federal budget, health minister Mark Butler last week announced an investment of A$49.1 million to help women with endometriosis and complex gynaecological conditions such ...10 hours ago
- 71st Everest Day: A Celebration Of New Zealand-Nepal Relationship And The Quest To Preserve The Ever...As the world commemorates the 71st Everest Day, it's not just a celebration of human achievement but also a reflection of the enduring bond between New Zealand and Nepal. This day marks the historic feat of Sir Edmund Hillary and Tenzing Norgay Sherpa ...11 hours ago
- Activists Seek To Shut Down Gender-critical Event: Tākina Events Must Uphold Speech RightsIndividuals in Wellington, led by City Councillor Nīkau Wi Neera, are working to use the ‘hecklers veto’ to shut down Inflection Point , a gender-critical event to be held at a Te Papa venue this weekend featuring speakers such as Bob McCoskrie ...12 hours ago
- Trans Community To Rally Against HateThe transgender community, whānau & allies will rally outside Tākina/Wellington Convention Centre against anti-trans confederation “Inflection Point NZ,” who are hosting a conference to encourage parliamentarians to restrict trans people’s ...12 hours ago
- Net Migration Loss Of New Zealand Citizens Exceeds 50,000Before the current high levels, the record annual net migration loss of New Zealand citizens was 44,400 in the February 2012 year. ...12 hours ago
- Charter schools: What are they, how are they different, and are they better than public schools?What exactly are charter schools and what makes them different to regular public schools? Here's what you need to know. ...13 hours ago
- End is nigh for public ownership of Auckland Airport sharesA strategic asset for Auckland that has been fought over for years as either sacrosanct or a sacred cow looks certain to be sold and the proceeds of around $1.3 billion put in a new investment fund. A year after bitter political struggle ended in a compromise in which Auckland ...13 hours ago
- Bryce Edwards’ Analysis – The Govt’s Fast-Track being demolished by submissions to ParliamentAnalysis by Dr Bryce Edwards – the Democracy Project (https://democracyproject.nz) Political scientist, Dr Bryce Edwards. The number of voices raising concerns about the Government’s Fast-Track Approvals Bill is rapidly growing. This is especially apparent now that Parliament’s select committee is listening to submissions from the public to evaluate the ...13 hours ago
- ‘A lot of fire, violence’: Nouméa erupts as protests halt New CaledoniaRNZ Pacific New Caledonians lined up in long queues outside shopping centres to buy supplies in the capital Nouméa today amid political unrest in the French territory Demonstrations, marches and clashes with security forces erupted yesterday and French High Commissioner Louis Le Franc told the public broadcaster he had called ...13 hours ago
- Christchurch Call to continue as charityThe initiative, established by former prime minister Dame Jacinda Ardern, aims to stop violent extremism online. ...14 hours ago
- An NRL player died at training due to exertional heat stroke. What is it and what should coaches and...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Samuel Chalmers, Senior Lecturer in Human Movement, University of South Australia The tragic death of Manly rugby league player Keith Titmuss in 2020 due to exertional heat stroke is a reminder of the life-threatening nature of the condition. Titmuss died after ...15 hours ago
- Luxon Must Rule Out Taxpayer Funding For “fatally Compromised” Christchurch CallInternet Governance Project founder Milton Mueller asked “is the Christchurch Call accomplishing anything?” Increasingly it seems the only thing it hopes to achieve is killing off free expression. ...15 hours ago
- NZ foreign minister Peters cancels New Caledonia visit as unrest eruptsNew Zealand Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters has cancelled his visit to New Caledonia due to pro-independence unrest throughout the French Pacific territory. Peters and a delegation of other ministers was due to visit the capital Nouméa later this week. Nouméa’s La Tontouta International Airport is expected to remain closed ...15 hours ago
- ‘I thought we could wear Zoolander outfits’: Pip Adam and Emily Perkins on the Ockhams
Audition by Pip Adam and Lioness by Emily Perkins are both shortlisted for the fiction award at the 2024 Ockham New Zealand Book Awards. Here the authors discuss awards, writing, Selling Sunset, review culture, Zoolander and more. Pip Adam: Whenever I think about writers and our ambitions, I can’t help ...16 hours ago - Influence, authority and power: how elite women played a crucial role in the Italian Wars of the 16t...Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Susan Broomhall, Director, Gender and Women’s History Research Centre, Australian Catholic University Andrea Mantegna, Minerva (Athena) expelling Vices from the Garden of Virtue, from the Studiolo of Isabella d’Este, Palazzo Ducale, Mantua (c. 1499–1502). Louvre Museum/Wikimedia Commons Wartime has often presented opportunities ...16 hours ago
- Some say the Treaty of Waitangi divides NZ – a new survey suggests the opposite is trueSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Olli Hellmann, Associate Professor of Political Science, University of Waikato Getty Images The stories Aotearoa New Zealand tells itself about the history of Te Tiriti o Waitangi/the Treaty of Waitangi have evolved considerably over time. For many decades, starting with the ...16 hours ago
- Police to establish national gang unitPolice are setting up frontline teams to tackle crime and intimidation by gangs, Andrew Coster has announced. ...17 hours ago
- Why are auroras so hard to predict? And when can we expect more?Source: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Brett Carter, Associate Professor, RMIT University Aurora visible from Cope Cope, Victoria on May 11 2024. cafuego/Flickr, CC BY-SA On Saturday evening before Mother’s Day, Australians witnessed a rare celestial spectacle: a breathtaking display of aurora australis, also known as the southern ...17 hours ago
- Watch: Police Commissioner Andrew Coster announces new 'National Gang Unit'Police are setting up frontline teams to tackle crime and intimidation by gangs, Andrew Coster has announced. ...17 hours ago
- Watch live: Police Commissioner Andrew Coster announces new 'National Gang Unit'Andrew Coster has revealed new dedicated police teams will tackle organised crime. ...18 hours ago
- ‘As much as we built it, it built us’: How Sunday said goodbyeTara Ward watches as TVNZ’s long-running current affairs show bows out with humility and grace. We have just 12 days left to view the final episode of Sunday on TVNZ+. In just over a week, there will be no more evidence of the award-winning current affairs show on the digital ...18 hours ago
- Botched prison mutiny, protests ahead of New Caledonia constitution voteBy Patrick Decloitre, RNZ Pacific correspondent French Pacific desk New Caledonia has gone through yet another day of tense political protests and a failed prison mutiny — a few hours ahead of a vote in Paris’s National Assembly on a government-tabled Constitutional amendment. This amendment would “unfreeze” the list of ...18 hours ago
- Winston Peters cancels New Caledonia visit amid violent unrestThe Foreign Affairs Minister was due to visit the capital Nouméa this week. ...19 hours ago
- One woman’s ranking of her 20 favourite local band shirtsTo celebrate New Zealand Music Month, Sophie Ricketts wears a different band T-shirt every day. Here she picks her top 20. I love music. I love listening to it, I love seeing it live, and I love buying a T-shirt from the band or artist I’ve enjoyed. Every year, during ...19 hours ago
- Behind the roller door: How people are using their garages for much more than storageResearch from AA Insurance reveals more and more people are taking pride in their garage. Meet three New Zealanders using their space in creative ways. If you think of a garage, you might picture a dark room with a parked car. There might be some tools on the wall, or ...19 hours ago
- Critical Forestry Research Under Threat As Attack On Science Ramps UpGovernment spending cuts have forced Scion, the dedicated Crown research institute charged with growing forestry exports, to propose shedding a significant number of scientists. ...19 hours ago
- About 30 jobs to go at Crown forestry institute ScionAbout 30 jobs are being cut at the Crown forestry institute, the PSA says. ...20 hours ago
- Winston Peters cancels New Caledonia vist due to unrestThe Foreign Affairs Minister was due to visit the capital Nouméa this week. ...20 hours ago
- Watch: Charter schools to get $153m in new funding in Budget 2024Up to 50 charter schools will be funded with $153m out of Budget 2024, David Seymour has announced. ...20 hours ago
- Access Denied: Government Must Fund Online Access To Public Records...20 hours ago
- Scrapping the waste export levy threatens Australia’s emerging lithium battery recycling industrySource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Yasir Arafat, Senior Research Associate, Edith Cowan University asharkyu, Shutterstock As electric vehicle (EV) demand accelerates, so does the need for lithium batteries. But these batteries contain valuable critical minerals, as well as toxic materials, so they should not be treated ...20 hours ago
- Centenarian Recalls Battles Of Cassino Ahead Of 80th Anniversary CommemorationsNZDF personnel will support the New Zealand National Commemorative Service at the Cassino War Cemetery and a New Zealand Service of Remembrance at the Cassino Railway Station, next week. ...20 hours ago
- Consultants needed for education system changes – Christopher LuxonBut the Prime Minister says he's not aware of ministry staff who are losing their jobs being asked to work as consultants. ...21 hours ago
- The cost of being: A sex worker with a taste for luxury shoppingAs part of our series exploring how New Zealanders live and our relationship with money, a masseuse tells us how much she earns and where she spends it. Want to be part of The Cost of Being? Fill out the questionnaire here. Gender: Female Age: 33 Ethnicity: NZ European Role: ...21 hours ago
- AI can make up songs now, but who owns the copyright? The answer is complicatedSource: The Conversation (Au and NZ) – By Wellett Potter, Lecturer in Law, University of New England Eugenio Marongiu/Shutterstock Artificial intelligence (AI) text and image generation tools have now been around for a while, but in recent weeks, apps for making AI-generated music have reached consumers as well. ...21 hours ago
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Whangarei tells a story repeated across NZ. In 2017 Reti won this seat by 11,000 votes and National won the party vote there handsomely. This time the Whangarei party vote is 46% Labour to 27% Nat (prelim results)
By my calculations Smith is safe by at least 2 seats on the list….not that I expect him to take it up going by his comment this morning…but Reti does indeed look to be gone on specials
Not sure about those calculations. As mentioned in the article, isn't Smith currently no 8 out of their 9 list MPs, with Pugh no. 9?
did a rough count last night and national will draw 11 from the list with Smith currently in 8th position…ah missed Stuart Smith and Chris Penk.
Electoral Commission website suggests 9 Nat list MPs, with 26 electorate MPs: https://electionresults.govt.nz/index.html
yep..just went back and checked …had missed 2
Easy to miss some of them. Quite a bit of deadwood in safe seats.
Might also be interesting to see if new list-only MPs Gerry Brownlee and Nick Smith decide to retire from Parliament, if not soon, sometime this term at least. Wouldn't that mean a list lifeline for Maureen Pugh and, er, Harete Hipango?
The Herald says Gerry is mulling his future: https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/election-2020-nationals-gerry-brownlee-tossing-up-resignation-backs-collins-to-stay-on-as-leader/EC3A4J6IFAGS7OWDSFJLGNGSVA/
I think Collins will demote Brownlee and without an electorate office Brownlee has lost everything.
Gerry will do whatever Merv and the other party elders decide.
So from one deputy party caucus leader who has already lost his electorate seat onto another who will have as well by the time that caucus meeting is held.
expect more dirty politics by the nats as some deadwood suddenly find they need to spend time with family.
It would be great if Reti loses his electorate seat. Labour candidate Emily Henderson wouldn't back Maunu residents who want a wall around their suburb to keep
poor peoplestate housing out of their suburb.Besides, if Henderson gets in there'll be two representatives for the electorate as Reti will be in on the list.
To think that a very, very short while back the unknowing were suggesting he could be a next National leader. You don't blow two 13,000 vote majorities if you're a well regarded local MP, covid or not.
"You don't blow two 13,000 vote majorities if you're a well regarded local MP, covid or not."
I'm waiting for the inevitable "Bring back Sabin!" campaign…
Sabin was in Northland not Whangarei.
I stand corrected. I think I got my wires crossed because he was born in Whangarei. I heard he’s great with kids and gives a good foot massage too.
I was wondering too why Reti is under so much pressure to keep his electoral seat, which he won with a majority of 10,967 votes in 2017. Compared to other National MPs, he performed well although internal Party forces possibly held his ascendance back, which was quite late in the game. In 2017, Reti received 18,734 votes and his provisional tally in 2020 stands at 15,637 votes. The Party voted tanked from 18,572 in 2017 to 10,422 in 2020. So, he has done reasonably well to hold on to his candidate votes. On the other hand, the Labour candidate went from 7,767 in 2017 to 15,475 in 2020! My take is that Reti did ok but Emily Henderson did exceptionally well to close the gap.
While Reti gained 18,734 in 2017, the boundaries of Whangarei changed for the 2020 election with a loss of about 3000 from a 'blue' rural area to the Northland electorate. So his capturing 15,637 votes in this election wasn't too bad to be fair. The very active and robust campaign by Labour gained a lot of votes from NZF [Shane Jones] 7651 in 2017 down to about 1300 in 2020 and from the Greens 4800 in 2017 down to also about 1200 in 2020. Act increased their vote from 188 in 2017 to 1800 in 2020. A closer analysis showing where Labours increased vote came from will be be very interesting . A CB poll suggested that NZF voters were changing to Labour across NZ. The Green Party candidate campaigned for the PV this time and endorsed the Labour Candidate.
Labour ran a crap candidate in 2017, i don't know any Greens who voted for him. This time all the Greens i know electorate voted Henderson.
Ta
In 2017, 472 (20.15%) people who voted for the Green Party also voted for the Labour Candidate.
Of the people who ticked the Labour Party:
2505 (19.28%) voted for the Green Candidate;
6636 (51.07%) voted for the Labour Candidate;
912 (7.02%) voted for the National Candidate, i.e. for Reti;
2188 (16.84%) voted for the NZF Candidate, i.e. for Shane Jones.
https://archive.electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2017/statistics/split-votes-electorate-63.html
"Whangarei is on a knife edge with Reti ahead by only 162 votes " Damn i wish the same could be said for Invercargill.
I hope the smarmy Reti gets rolled by specials, it is within reach. Emily ran a strong campaign in Whangārei and yes, as Vigo says there was a boundary change that affected quite a few “lifestyle mini farm” type areas and rural spreads with private access lanes. But I was not sure the new voters would be any less tory inclined than the old lot, but this election certainly gave the bag a shake!
The Henderson Reeves law firm is a building on a ridge that can be seen around the Whangarei CBD–and I thought that if any Labour candidate could make gains it might be someone like her with family connections to the local establishment. There have been several thousands of new residents over the past 5 years moved North from the Auckland Region according to the Whangārei District Council.
I posted a special vote in Whangarei for Emily Henderson which reduces Reti's lead by 1…..looking forward to the special results coming through in avouple of weeks.
[I’ve changed your user name to the one you’ve used here previously assuming it was a mistake using your full (real?) name – Incognito]
Excellent. Any specials above 162 on current vote standing for Emily Henderson would seal the deal! Though a small margin would be nice to have, because Mr Reti is likely to go for a recount.
I love the way Judith (remember her?) kept calling him "Doctor Shane"…..as if he was on Shortland Street or something.
The Harvard Maori.
I think Dr Reti is the best of a very very bad bunch.And behind hin MATT king is less odious than many of the other tory pretenders.His wife (Matts ) is a bit up herself but that is par for the course in Nazional party pollies /.I am sory Winstone and Shane have gone cos they did splash some cash in the north ,and it was very much needed.North of the Bay of Islands there is very little manufacturing industry or any thing else ,save forestry ,low waged ,hard labour jobs .We regularly get droughts which very much adversely effect our family dairy operation,severely testing my son in laws stoic dedication to improving his families lot .Any way brilliant result and thank goodness the next battle is 3 years away ,the liver can only survive so much abuse.