EU elections

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1. SPC 1

   25 May 2019 at 9:11 am

   Brexit is largely older people voting for the Britain of their youth in the 1950's and 1960's. And those involved want the referendum result fixed in time and applied until they die off.

   However at each election in future, Labour the LD and SNP are going to run on re-joining the customs union and single market. Time is not on their side. They cling to the 2016 result because it will never be repeated.

   These old people (no CGT, work and get super privileged elite) are like the Boers in the laager under P Botha. A regime awaiting the stake in the heart.
   • Dukeofurl 1.1

     25 May 2019 at 11:06 am

     There isnt that many 'older people' to get a 52% majority. Its was far more regional in that outside London 'region' and a few 'EU- centric enclaves' the voters didnt see much benefit from EU or other dominant economic policies.

     That was even with junk economics saying the economy would suffer a sharp shock once the result was announced. It could have been over 55% vote to leave if the reality of economic adjustment would be small was pushed instead.

     Even before joing the EU ( or Common market as it was called then) Britian was a member of the Free trade area

     Britain has had a leg out of the EU anyway , no Schengen , no Euro, No Charter of Fundamental rights, The 'Area of Freedom security &Justice'

     the UK originally was out of the 'Social Chapter of the Maastrict Treaty' but that was abolished by Blair

     The other area which they are 'in' is Security and Defence Policy ( Denmark is the only one outside this agreement.
     • Dukeofurl 1.1.1

       25 May 2019 at 11:16 am

       if you want a proper look at the 'leave/remain' demographics look at the Guardians data

       Its certainly not 'mostly' older people

       https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2016/jun/23/eu-referendum-live-results-and-analysis?CMP=twt_b-gdndata
       • SPC 1.1.1.1

         25 May 2019 at 11:34 am

         Those under 45 voted to remain. Those over 45 did not. Rising to 60% of the over 65’s.

         Basically those born after 1973 (EEC) supported Remain and those born before opposed this.

         Two thirds of Labour (63-37), LD and SNP voters voted to remain. Only the Tory voters supported Brexit (58-42).

         https://lordashcroftpolls.com/2019/03/a-reminder-of-how-britain-voted-in-the-eu-referendum-and-why/
         • Dukeofurl 1.1.1.1.1

           25 May 2019 at 12:43 pm

           A Poll ? Now what could be wrong about that ?

           You will always find a majority of the majority over 45 , as thats the largest voting group.

           ie 18-25 group are only a fraction of the numbers voting 65+

           A lot of them would have voted to 'remain' last time they had a referendum in 1975 , more than 40 years ago
           • SPC 1.1.1.1.1.1

             25 May 2019 at 12:58 pm

             The old Tories are dying off. Their majority is fading. Tick tock.

             The longer the Tories ride the Brexit horse the sooner they will also fade.
2. James 2

   25 May 2019 at 9:21 am

   My three wishes:

   Brexit party do extremely well in the E.U. elections

   Boris to replace May

   Boris and Farage to deliver a ‘no deal’ brexit for the UK people.

   Oh and a bonus wish – make it as hard if not impossible to have morons try to get back in

   (regardless if they leave it will be close to the end of the E.U. – other countries will see how well it goes and will leave also)
   • Hamish Stevenson 2.1

     26 May 2019 at 1:12 am

     It would be a pretty screwed up genie that would grant those three wishes.
3. Anne 3

   25 May 2019 at 10:39 am

   This post is one of the best you've done AD. At least it's helped me to comprehend the intricacies of current EU affairs.There are plenty of standardistas better placed than me when it comes to commenting so I will leave it to them except to say in general terms:

   setting aside the effects of CC which is the elephant in the room that legions of officials everywhere avoid mentioning like it's a plague… we are seeing the real effects of 30-40 years of of world-wide market-place ideology and the consequences are becoming increasingly chaotic and dangerous. What is worse, it is throwing up the very worst kind of leaders whose ignorance and stupidity is only compounding the situation and leading us closer to impending economical and social catastrophes.
4. Incognito 4

   25 May 2019 at 10:39 am

   Excellent post!

   Yes, there are (too) many internal and external issues at play. With rising geo-political tensions, I think the EU will band together.

   The political parties that are successfully replacing the stable centrist ones are largely highly nationalist and ethnically focussed, or deeply anti-immigration, or indeed both. They are not primarily driven by economic agendas, but by identity and a will to protect existing groups of settled peoples within specific countries.

   Immigration always has economic drivers. Even if not explicitly stated, economic and ‘identity’ agendas are always inextricably linked. This is one reason why these agendas are so pervasive. In many ways, it is the same in the US, for example. I reckon that these kind of ‘dual agendas’ have much less sway here in NZ but recent developments might prove me wrong on this.
5. mosa 5

   25 May 2019 at 2:12 pm

   The real Nigel Farage.

   Lavish lifestyle

   Just a matter of days before the 2019 EU elections, Channel 4 News ran a feature on Nigel Farage. It claimed that the Brexit Party leader was personally bankrolled by multi-millionaire Arron Banks. (Banks is currently under investigationby the National Crime Agency and the Information Commissioner’s Office regarding the role played by his companies during the EU referendum campaign.) The EU is now investigating Channel 4‘s claims.

   https://www.thecanary.co/uk/2019/05/24/nigel-man-of-the-people-farage-my-arse-meet-the-real-brexit-party-leader/
6. CHCoff 6

   25 May 2019 at 2:50 pm

   https://citaty.net/citaty/701255-upton-sinclair-it-is-difficult-to-get-a-man-to-understand-somethi/

   This equally applies to societal dominance and levers of power. Undemocratic demand, the destabilizer of economies.

   Due to technological advancements, the old methods of reset (keep going till collapse) are alot more far reaching extinction level events, even for the super priviliged.
7. woodart 7

   25 May 2019 at 3:14 pm

   parent country…. bollocks to that. statements like that make me fairly dissmissive of the whole column.
8. Hamish Stevenson 8

   26 May 2019 at 1:11 am

   Very good article.
9. Katipo 9

   26 May 2019 at 7:46 am

   Stephen Fry's take on the why some of the wealthy are backing a Brexit…

   https://youtu.be/_HDFegpX5gI
10. RedLogix 10

    26 May 2019 at 7:53 am

    As always a column worth reading and thinking about Ad.

    Instead the common theme of most countries has been national seclusion and a rejection of the immigration that Europe desperately needs to respond to its ageing, socially entitled population,

    Hans Rosling made a very important point here; in all but several regions in the world, birth rates have dropped to close to replacement or lower. As an inexorable, mathematical consequence the demographic distribution … that was traditionally biased toward children and youth … is now taking on a more even shape with every age cohort more evenly represented.

    Emphatically this is not a bad thing. It means families are choosing to have the number of children they want; it means people are living longer and healthier on average. (There are some important exceptions, but that's another thread.)

    The only downside is the perception that as more and more people live well past the usual age of retirement questions arise about how we are going to pay for their 'social entitlement'. My own father for example was forced into retirement at 58 and is now 90 and looks like he's got years in him still; he could easily be retired almost as long as he worked.

    There are two answers to this puzzle; one is that we already tend to discount the substantial contribution many older people continue to make to society, and increasing this contribution with more flexible and intelligent workplace practices is an obvious option.

    The other major factor is technology; an ageing population is not a problem if productivity rises to match. The critical problem, the one we totally agree on, is distribution.

    Solve the distribution problem and there will be no need for mass immigration to 'replace the next generation'. We can all agree that the two extremes, totally open borders and totally closed ones, are impossible. Borders, like the walls of any biological cell, have to be selectively porous in order for the nation to thrive.

    But the problem for Europe is that it's all one-way traffic. We don't see a problem for instance with Welsh 'flooding' into Ethiopia. Europe's problem is that it has been too successful and the economic gradient between it, the Middle East and Africa is too great. And better redistribution is a double edged tool, you cannot have say a generous UBI operating in one country, next to another with severe inequality without setting up the conditions for uncontrolled economic migration.

    This is the root of the crisis of confidence Europe is going through, that it’s unity is a good thing regionally, but insufficient in the global sense.
    • Mark 10.1

      27 May 2019 at 5:28 am

      <i>But the problem for Europe is that it's all one-way traffic. We don't see a problem for instance with Welsh 'flooding' into Ethiopia. </i>

      Yeah, That is why 500 million white people live outside of Europe.

      So what the fuck do you mean by 'one way traffic'?

      Not to mention the plunder of African countries by Europeans.

      It is true that its about economic disparity. That is where China is contributing. By building infrastructure and developing hitherto poor places without a shit show of improvement, people will be more inclined to stay home when there are opportunities at home.
      • RedLogix 10.1.1

        27 May 2019 at 6:00 am

        At least the West has a history we are allowed to talk about. Rather than erase it altogether:

        https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-27/chinas-ai-censors-ramp-up-ahead-of-tiananmen-anniversary/11151470
      • Dukeofurl 10.1.2

        27 May 2019 at 1:44 pm

        " By building infrastructure and developing hitherto poor places without a shit show of improvement"

        Railways/ports roads were built in the colonial period too. With Chinese built infrastructure ( usually by imported chinese labour and skills) the project is funded by loans from China, often 'without a shit show of repaying'

        There are roughly 1 million chinese emigrant now living in Africa, they form a commercial class in most of the countries there
11. SPC 11

    27 May 2019 at 5:32 pm

    The centre right and left coalition lost their majority (down 40 seats each)

    The nationalist/populist parties main modest gains.

    The Liberals (up 40) and Greens (up 20) made gains also. Now either group would give the coalition a new majority.

    In the UK the Brexit Party won most, but their gain was less than the fall in the Tory and UKIP vote. The LD gained more than Labour fell.

    The UKIP and Tories got to 50% last time. This time the LD, Labour, Greens, Change UK SNP and Plaid Cymru did better than that. But not much can be read into this when the UK turnout is only 35%.

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