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Final election result – Labour ascendant National down and out

Written By: - Date published: 2:26 pm, November 6th, 2020 - 56 comments
Categories: election 2020, greens, Judith Collins, labour, maori party, national - Tags:

The Electoral Commission has released the final results of the 2020 election and if election night was a shocker for National the final result is even worse.

They have lost the seats of Whangarei, which I thought was likely, and Maungakiekie and Northland which I did not predict.

Their share of the vote has meant a net loss of two seats.  Denise Lee and Matt King will no longer be in Parliament.  Paradoxically Maureen Pugh survives.  If I was National I would have preferred Lee to stay.

Labour picks up one net seat.  Lydia Sosene just misses out, damn it.  Labour’s share of the vote tops 50% which is a phenomenal.

The Greens improved their share of the vote from 7.6% to 7.9% but unfortunately miss out on a further MP.  Tough luck to Steve Abel.

The Maori Party picks up a list seat and ends up on 1.2 % of the vote.  Debbie Ngarewa Packer joins Rawiri Waititi in Parliament.

This has got to hurt, especially the loss of the benefits that electorate MPs have.

I wonder if Judith Collins will survive this?  Her best chance is that the caucus is too shell shocked to want to depose her now.

56 comments on “Final election result – Labour ascendant National down and out ”

  1. The Greens out-voted ACT 7.9 to 7.6 in the final tally, reversing the election night position.

    Chloe Swarbrick more than doubled her majority in Akl Central to 1068

    Labour lost Vegas by 224; shame.

  2. observer 2

    It could not have gone any worse for National. The numbers, the people, everything. Yippee!

    Matt King fully deserves his fate. He has been one of the worst muck-spreaders on social media (e.g. going on about Saint Jacinda and Nazi Germany).

    Good riddance.

    • observer 2.1

      The closer you look, the worse it gets for the "Strong team".

      Incredibly, they lost the party vote in 71 out of 72 electorates. They lost the party vote in every National seat. I can't even get my head around that, it's extraordinary.

      (Epsom was the one exception, and there were less than 600 votes in it).

      • RedLogix 2.1.1

        In the long run probably the best thing that could have happened to National. This goes a some distance to dismantling a toxic decade of John Key's cynical brand of 'do as little as possible, make yourself a small target, and snipe the other guy' politics.

        Both Bridges and Collins imagined they could emulate Key, but they lacked the decades of training in corporate ruthlessness and cold calculus to carry it off.

        Key never had succession plan, there was no cultivation of new talent and ideas to step up after he left. Indeed even the manner of his leaving is quite consistent with the pattern of his prior career, a promising start, a stellar rise up the ranks, then suddenly for no obvious reason he 'moved on' from what looked like a desirable role he'd worked so hard to attain.

        Worse still each time the organisation he left behind encounters existential challenges in the immediate aftermath.

        National is now an empty shell, an iconic brand that's been hollowed out and stripped of it core. But for someone with vision and energy it represents a real opportunity to make a clean break with it's recent past and reinvent what they truly stand for. And that is the work of at least several more electoral cycles ….

        • Craig H 2.1.1.1

          I think John Key's succession plan was to hand over to Bill English a year early and leave it there.

        • Draco T Bastard 2.1.1.2

          then suddenly for no obvious reason he 'moved on' from what looked like a desirable role he'd worked so hard to attain.

          I'd say that the massive pay rises that he got each time was fairly obvious.

          Worse still each time the organisation he left behind encounters existential challenges in the immediate aftermath.

          That's been happening for decades across the capitalist world and always for the same reason. Fool shareholders get duped into thinking that some guy is brilliant, he gets hired, he does what he always does, moves on at the end of the contract and then the damage that has been done becomes obvious but it doesn't get applied to his actions.

          National is now an empty shell, an iconic brand that's been hollowed out and stripped of it core.

          That's how it's always been and always will be. They just have times when they have better PR.

          But for someone with vision and energy

          They're conservatives which means, by definition, that they lack all vision and energy.

        • Jack 2.1.1.3

          Key used National the same way that Trump used the Republicans.

  3. Having Maureen 'Useless' Pugh still in Parliament really is a kick in the teeth for National.

    • woodart 3.1

      no no craig mac. maureen pugh for next nats leader. the south will rise again!

    • Roy Cartland 3.2

      Heh, I thought the same thing. There's only one thing I've ever heard about Maureen Pugh; and in that she suits the National party just fine!

    • Stuart Munro 3.3

      If they had any critical capacity at all, Gerry and Nick must be pretty obvious dead rats. Can't run a campaign or a rebuild or run a ministry, but gotta have top list places. No party can afford pro backbenchers on the front bench.

  4. Tiger Mountain 4

    As a Far Northerner am so pleased with Emily and Willow Jean winning their seats. Northland and Whangarei are classic examples of electorates that should not be blue, but have been due to entrenched conservative voting habits and provincial culture.

    Emily Henderson is from a well known local law firm, and Willow Jean Prime has legal training and has served in local Govt. at FNDC. They are both capable of helping the North finally transition into the 21st century.

    Goodbye smarmy “potato” Mr Reti, and boofhead ex copper Mr King.

    • Ad 4.1

      Yay Northland and Whangarei!

    • Ed1 4.2

      I gather Dr Shane stays in parliament on the List. Pity really, someone told me Shortland Street were hoping to get him for a while . . .

    • greywarshark 4.3

      Beefhead Okaihau and ex police officer. Nothing to stir the intellect there. Which does not imply bwaghorn that I think all farmers are lacking – but they do have to seek stimulation and it sounds as if me King has not.

      • Tiger Mountain 4.3.1

        Matt King tried to be the Trump of the North on Facebook and he was not really up to it-regularly getting shot down, fact checked and challenged to debates which he always seemed to duck.

        Hone Harawira invited him to spend a day on an Iwi run Covid border checkpoint at Kaikohe during Level 4 lockdown. With Police present, and he did not turn up to that either despite his being all over the media about “these Mareees” and their illegal road blocks.

        Blowhard, hope Willow stays as the MP for a good long time.

    • Red Blooded One 4.4

      yes Having moved to the Far North from Mangakiekie, seeing Denise Lee booted out as well is a cherry on top of my delicious Northland Ice Cream Sundae today, Strawberry flavour all the way, not a sign of Blueberry. Hopefully after Matt King's recount he continues out to pasture.

  5. observer 5

    Those super-smart National tactical voters who owned the Greens by voting Labour have … um, now chucked out 3 more electorate MPs. Did the pen slip while they were doing that party vote?

  6. Pleased the greens got more than the act fruitloops, but a question about the weed vote.

    50.7% + 48.4 = 99.1% What happened to the other 0.9 percent?

    • Tiger Mountain 6.1

      According to Elections NZ, the 0.9 % did not “make their voting intentions clear”, so were not counted.

      • The Al1en 6.1.1

        Interesting. Wonder why they affect the total if they are effectively blank or non votes. So that makes the actual numbers of votes counted closer?

        • Tiger Mountain 6.1.1.1

          It is interesting given the closeness of the result.

        • Dennis Frank 6.1.1.2

          You could be discounting those who wrote maybe or ‘it depends'. Plenty of folk hate binary simplemindedness, eh?

          Gotta remember that the referendum was an FPP plan. What kind of moron takes FPP thinking seriously still?? The kind that supports referenda.

          • greywarshark 6.1.1.2.1

            It is a One Note Samba Dennis F. Simple question to see what is in our tiny minds. Perhaps the 0.9% were feeling happy at the time and wrote 'Yeah Man' or some positive mantra which of course doesn't count.

          • Draco T Bastard 6.1.1.2.2

            It wasn't simple minded. There was a whole heap of information behind the decision including legislation ready to be implemented.

            The only way to shift it from a simple question about the whole of the legislation was to make it a lot of simple questions about each part of the legislation.

            And then we run into the practical limitations of having everyone deciding upon the minutiae of the laws passed.

            • Dennis Frank 6.1.1.2.2.1

              Exactly. I had no problem with Little's decision to make the referendum hinge on his proposed legislation. But assuming voters would read it is unrealistic. As a typical yes voter, I didn't – I voted for the principle underlying the bill. Here's how Fowlie saw it:

              While I believe this is the best version of legalisation that’s ever been put forward, it wasn’t designed to win a referendum.

              It was designed by Ministry of Justice officials who wanted a policy that would benefit all sectors of society, rectify the harms caused by prohibition, retain any economic benefits in local communities, give people a second chance, while learning from the failures of alcohol, tobacco and gambling policies.

              They weren’t concerned with tricky things called elections, referendums and politicians. So the Bill is really long, detailed and complicated. It flagged it’s own weak points and gave opponents plenty of angles of attack.

              https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2020/11/06/cannabis-referendum-final-result-and-opportunities-for-reform/

        • Craig H 6.1.1.3

          Accountability of ballot papers issued and for statistical and analysis purposes later.

  7. Ad 7

    Appropriate and dignified exit as Deputy from Brownlee.

    A caucus of just 33. What to do…

  8. Draco T Bastard 8

    A couple of points:

    • The MP only got a second seat because of coat-tailing on the electorate seat
    • Several other parties got a higher vote than the MP but have no seats
    • Total wasted vote was 7.9% which is huge

    From this we can determine that our present system is unjust and needs to be changed. The absolute minimum changes needed was outlined back under National who refused to make these changes (please note that the review says that proportionality will be lost in 2026 due to the ratio of electorate seats shifting in favour of the electorate seats).

    If we keep MMP that I would also like to see preferential voting for the electorates and party vote. EDIT: As well as the threshold dropped to 1%.

    But I think its time we dropped MMP and went full proportional by dropping the electorate seats. Local politics needs to be done by the local council and national politics need to be done through the minister reponsible.

  9. Dennis Frank 9

    Other came in at third equal with the Greens (both on 7.9%). https://electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2020/

    MMP discriminates against the others, but they ought to be acknowledged as a political tribe with sufficient numbers to be significant. If we had a Minister of Lateral Thinking, that person could elect themselves as spokesperson for the others.

    Since others are an authentic bunch of reps of biodiversity, I'd like to see the Greens lobbying for their inclusion in the political process. Some parliamentary person ought to be able to speak on their behalf. We could provide a structured opportunity for submissions, so that filtered input could be injected into parliamentary consideration. Merit-based suggestions, I mean. If they seem a good idea to others, there's a basis of consensus already evident, right?

    Such an option allows a little more participatory democracy to happen. Crowd-sourcing solutions that political party orthodoxy rules out. Wallowing in mediocrity has gone on too long, time to shake things up!

    • greywarshark 9.1

      Minister of Lateral Thinking good idea. Feel like taking it on DF?

      • Dennis Frank 9.1.1

        I'm too much the dilettante. May seem a random notion at first glance, but I'm actually serious about it being a good scheme. Liberate parliament from those 19th century design shackles. Allow flexibility into the culture. If I had to choose a candidate for the position from the current lot, I'd go Willie Jackson.

  10. RosieLee 10

    And the lead item on the 4pm news is the American election crap. What happened to the final election and referenda results for NZ?

  11. PsyclingLeft.Always 11

    "Northland Labour candidate Willow-Jean Prime has beaten National's incumbent Matt King with a majority of 163 votes."

    https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/430006/special-votes-national-loses-two-mps-one-each-to-labour-maori-party

    Hold on Willow-Jean !!

  12. Brownlees gone – almost.

    Time to offer him a plumb ambassadorial post somewhere, like Afghanistan.

  13. peterlepaysan 13

    Unfortunately, with Brownlee’s disregard of airport security I doubt we would be able to fly him anywhere.

    • Stuart Munro 13.1

      Brownlee was born by cruise ship – as the song goes:

      I'd like to set him on a slow boat to China
      All by himself alone

  14. millsy 14

    Jacinda needs to think about making some accommodation with the Maori Party. It looks like the Labour Party's hold on the Maori seats has broken, and this reality needs to be planned for.

  15. Patricia Bremner 15

    Everything Labour hoped for has come to pass. The ball is in their court. Let us hope we get good government and it is many election cycles before the opposition holds sway.

    Judith Collins can now steer the National party towards her choice of candidates… something she plotted long ago. The toxic group is still there. Be aware.

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